winter preparation for severe weather events dl/nerc_winter...oct 02, 2014 · severe winter...
TRANSCRIPT
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Winter Preparation for Severe
Weather EventsOctober 2, 2014
Jule Tate, Manager of Event Analysis
Elliott Nethercutt, Senior Technical Analyst Reliability Assessment
Matthew Lewis, Manager of Training and Education
James Merlo, Director Reliability Risk Management
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Objective
• Provide the industry with reports and training materials in preparation for the upcoming winter weather forecasts and entity cold weather preparedness.
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• Overview of Southwest Cold Weather Event of February 1-5, 2011
• Overview of Polar Vortex Review January 6-7, 2014
• Winter Weather Preparation Materials Survey Results
• Lesson Learned–Southwest Cold Weather Event
• Assessment of Previous Severe Winter Weather
• Reliability Guideline: Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness
• Cold Weather Training Module
• Risk Assessment
• NERC Winter Reliability Assessment Preview 2014-15
• Questions and Answers
Agenda
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• Background The southwest region of the United States experienced unusually cold and
windy weather during the first week of February 2011.
Lows during this period were below freezing temperatures for five consecutive mornings.
In addition, sustained high winds of over 20 mph produced severe wind chill factors.
Southwest Cold Weather Event
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• Impacts Increased Energy Demand
o New winter peak demand were set for many registered entities.
Generation losses due to frozen equipment and fuel issues
o 225 units tripped, de-rated or failed to start
o Except for nuclear facilities, all power plant types including coal/lignite, simple cycle gas, combined cycle gas and wind resources experienced problems
1.3 million customers lost power
Southwest Cold Weather Event
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• Generation Preparation Many generators failed to adequately prepare for the 2011 winter storm,
including the following:
o Heat traces failed or not adequate
o Wind breaks missing or not adequate
o Insulation removed, damaged, not adequate
o Instrument cabinet heating elements failed or not adequate
o Freeze protection equipment not on hand
Southwest Cold Weather Event
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Corroded Freeze Protection Panel
Inspect and maintain heat tracing equipment on all generating units.
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Wind Break Design
Wind break was too Short
Wind BreakPlan to erect adequate wind breaks
and enclosures, where needed.
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Inadequate Insulation
Inspect and maintain thermal
insulation on all units.
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Instrument cabinets
No heat lamp in instrument
cabinet.
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• Precedence Prior severe cold weather in the same geographical region in 1989, 2003,
2006, 2008, and 2010.
Impacts to generation were comparable.
Finding, Recommendations, and Lessons Learned are similar
Limited institutionalization of the recommendations and lessons.
Southwest Cold Weather Event
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• Follow-up Activities 13 lessons learned (LL) published
Assessment of Previous Severe Winter Weather Reports 1983-2011
Reliability Guideline on “Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness –Current Industry Practices.”
Training package from the Winter Weather Operations LL
Annual webinars on winter weather preparation
Southwest Cold Weather Event
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• Overview of Southwest Cold Weather Event of February 1-5, 2011
• Overview of Polar Vortex Review January 6-7, 2014
• Winter Weather Preparation Materials Survey Results
• Lesson Learned–Southwest Cold Weather Event
• Assessment of Previous Severe Winter Weather
• Reliability Guideline: Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness
• Cold Weather Training Module
• Risk Assessment
• NERC Winter Reliability Assessment Preview 2014-15
• Questions and Answers
Agenda
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• Background
• In January a mass of arctic air, called the polar vortex, moved southward to the lower 48 states bringing temperatures well below averages in many Midwestern, Southeastern and Northeastern cities.
• In many areas in the United States, temperatures were far colder than those normally experienced in winter, resulting in record winter peak electric demands associated with increased electric heating requirements.
Polar Vortex Review
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New Winter Peak Loads
MISO ISO-NE NYISO PJM SPP TVAVACAR-
South
South-
eastern
RC
TRE FRCC
Previous
Winter peak
(% of previous
peak)
99,855 22,818 25,541 136,675 32,635 43,384 42,983 46,259 57,265 36,926
6-Jan-14109,307
(109.5%)
18,500
(81.1%)
23,197
(90.8%)
131,142
(95.5%)
36,602
(112.2%)
43,277
(99.8%)
50,659
(117.9%)
44,871
(97.0%)
56,031
(97.8%)
30,231
(81.9%)
7-Jan-14104,746
(104.9%)
21,300
(93.3%)
25,738
(100.8%)
140,510
(103.5%)
36,079
(110.6%)
44,285
(102.1%)
44,654
(103.9%)
48,279
(104.4%)
57,277
(100.0%)
35,638
(96.5%)
8-Jan-14100,154
(100.3%)
20,800
(91.2%)
24,551
(96.1%)
133,288
(98.1%)
31,944
(97.9%)
39,820
(91.8%)
43,203
(100.5%)
47,005
(101.6%)
45,281
(79.1%)
29,251
(79.2%)
New all-time winter peak
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• Fuel Natural gas interruptions: supply injection, compressor outages, and one
pipeline explosion
Fuel oil delivery problems
Inability to procure gas
Fuel oil gelling
• Cold weather effects Wind turbine low temperature limits
Hydro icing
Failed auxiliary equipment
Stress of extended run times
• Frozen instrumentation Drum level sensors
Control valves
Flow and pressure sensors
Generator Performance: Common Trends
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Recommendations
• Examine and review the natural gas supply issues encountered during the event.
• Review and update power plant weatherization programs as a result of lessons learned from this event.
• Continue to improve operations management awareness of the fuel status of all generators, including improved awareness of pipeline system conditions.
• Ensure that the fuel on hand and/or ordered for the winter season is appropriately protected from the effects of cold weather at the expected extreme temperatures.
Polar Vortex Review
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• Follow-up Activities Benchmark Reliability Guideline on “Generating Unit Winter Weather
Readiness – Current Industry Practices” to identify any gaps
Update winter weather preparation materials with new LLs
Include results and conclusions in annual webinars on winter weather preparation
Polar Vortex Review
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• Overview of Southwest Cold Weather Event of February 1-5, 2011
• Overview of Polar Vortex Review January 6-7, 2014
• Winter Weather Preparation Materials Survey Results
• Lesson Learned–Southwest Cold Weather Event
• Assessment of Previous Severe Winter Weather
• Reliability Guideline: Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness
• Cold Weather Training Module
• Risk Assessment
• NERC Winter Reliability Assessment Preview 2014-15
• Questions and Answers
Agenda
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• June 23 through July 23 , NERC Staff and the EAS issued a survey to industry.
• The online was survey designed to assess the effectiveness of recommendations and lessons learned from the Southwest Cold Weather event of February 2011, published Reliability Guidelines, cold weather training module, and other materials provided to the industry for cold weather preparedness.
Winter Weather Materials Survey Results
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• What recommendations or changes have you implemented in your winter preparation process:
Checked that each generation facility winter preparation process includes inspection of fuel supply and refueling.
Ensure adequate monitoring of heat tracing and freeze protection systems is performed prior to cold weather.
All plants are now documenting completion of weatherization activities in the work management system.
Annual cold weather training is provided to personnel.
A cold weather event alert system that is based on local conditions at each generating plant and the locations that are forecast to be affected take direct action once a warning has been issued
We included random testing of black start units during temperature extremes and initiated engineering reviews to identify potential freezing problems or other cold weather operational issues.
Industry use of Winter Weather Materials
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• Overview of Southwest Cold Weather Event of February 1-5, 2011
• Overview of Polar Vortex Review January 6-7, 2014
• Winter Weather Preparation Materials Survey Results
• Lesson Learned–Southwest Cold Weather Event
• Assessment of Previous Severe Winter Weather
• Reliability Guideline: Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness
• Cold Weather Training Module
• Risk Assessment
• NERC Winter Reliability Assessment Preview 2014-15
• Questions and Answers
Agenda
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• Generating Unit Temperature Design Parameters and Extreme Winter Conditions
• Adequate Maintenance and Inspection of Generator Freeze Protection
• Plant Instrument and Sensing Equipment Freezing Due to Heat Trace and Insulation Failures
• Plant Fuel Switching and Cold Weather
• Transmission Facilities and Winter Weather Operations
• Wind Farm Winter Storm Issues
• Electricity and Natural Gas Interdependency
Lesson Learned – Southwest Cold Weather Event
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Lesson Learned –Southwest Cold Weather Event
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Lesson Learned –Southwest Cold Weather Event
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Lesson Learned –Southwest Cold Weather Event
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• Overview of Southwest Cold Weather Event of February 1-5, 2011
• Overview of Polar Vortex Review January 6-7, 2014
• Winter Weather Preparation Materials Survey Results
• Lesson Learned–Southwest Cold Weather Event
• Assessment of Previous Severe Winter Weather
• Reliability Guideline: Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness
• Cold Weather Training Module
• Risk Assessment
• NERC Winter Reliability Assessment Preview 2014-15
• Questions and Answers
Agenda
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Assessment of Previous Severe Winter Weather
• Purpose This report provides a review and comparison of the previous events with
the February 2011 cold weather event.
• Conclusion Of the 11 cold weather incidents documented in the last 30 years (1983-
2013), three cold weather events were comparable in size and scope to the February 2011 event.
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• Posted on NERC website on July 9, 2013. Eight prior severe cold weather Event Reports
NERC Event Analysis reported that the major contributing causes of the Southwest Cold Weather Event of February 1-5, 2011 (some examples of contributing causes below)
o The designs and other documentation for equipment were incomplete.
o Industry or in-house experience relating to a current problem that existed prior to the event, but was not assimilated by the organization.
o A process for supplying personnel with appropriate materials or tools did not exist.
o Management's methods for monitoring the success of initiatives were ineffective in identifying shortcomings in the implementation.
o All essential components were not included in the required inspection.
o Management direction created insufficient awareness of the impact of actions on reliability
Assessment of PreviousSevere Winter Weather
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Assessment of Previous Severe Winter Weather
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Assessment of Previous Severe Winter Weather
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Assessment of Previous Severe Winter Weather
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Assessment of Previous Severe Winter Weather
Previous Cold Weather Event
Analysis
http://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/February 2011 Southwest Cold Weather Event/Final_Draft_Assessment_of_Previous_Severe_Winter_Weather_Report.pdf
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• Overview of Southwest Cold Weather Event of February 1-5, 2011
• Overview of Polar Vortex Review January 6-7, 2014
• Winter Weather Preparation Materials Survey Results
• Lesson Learned–Southwest Cold Weather Event
• Assessment of Previous Severe Winter Weather
• Reliability Guideline: Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness
• Cold Weather Training Module
• Risk Assessment
• NERC Winter Reliability Assessment Preview 2014-15
• Questions and Answers
Agenda
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• Purpose
Provides general concepts that may be considered when developing a winter weather readiness program.
Shares current winter weather readiness practices and procedures from across the industry.
To be applied as appropriate based on geographic location, technology and plant configuration.
Reliability Guideline:Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness
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Reliability Guideline:Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness
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Reliability Guideline:Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness
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Reliability Guideline:Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness
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Reliability Guideline:Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness
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Reliability Guideline
Reliability Guideline: Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness
http://www.nerc.com/comm/OC/Reliability Guideline DL/Generating_Unit_Winter_Weather_Readiness_final.pdf
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• Overview of Southwest Cold Weather Event of February 1-5, 2011
• Overview of Polar Vortex Review January 6-7, 2014
• Winter Weather Preparation Materials Survey Results
• Lesson Learned–Southwest Cold Weather Event
• Assessment of Previous Severe Winter Weather
• Reliability Guideline: Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness
• Cold Weather Training Module
• Risk Assessment
• NERC Winter Reliability Assessment Preview 2014-15
• Questions and Answers
Agenda
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Cold Weather Training Packet
Refresher
October 2, 2014
Matt Lewis, Manager of Training and Education
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Purpose
• Provide timely, relevant information to assist registered entities in preparing for extreme winter weather occurrences.
• Identify key outputs and causes that led to significant loss of capacity.
• Outline importance of maintaining thorough winterization practices. February 2011 cold weather event.
Comparison between 1989 and 2011 and other significant events.
• Discuss guidelines for winter weather preparedness.
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Overview of Training Packet
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Training Package
• This package offers training materials that are customizable, user-friendly, educational, and ready to use.
• This package is located on www.nerc.com and available for all Regions and registered entities for use in cold weather preparation
• Cold weather resource page http://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Pages/February-2011-Southwest-Cold-
Weather-Event.aspx
• Included in this package: Instructors Manual
Presentation – PowerPoint version
Handouts for Students
Links to website with all related events and resources
• This package can be customized to users specifications
http://www.nerc.com/http://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Pages/February-2011-Southwest-Cold-Weather-Event.aspx
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Construct of Training
• Introduction/Learning Objectives
• Purpose
• Targeted Learning Audience: What happened: Event Details extracted from the LL materials
Why did it happen: Shortcomings of bulk power system (BPS), human performance (HP) challenges, etc?
Recommendations: Applicable functional recommendations will be added to the training packets.
Entity perspective: Learning activities are tailored to include local relevance
o How does this effect/apply to me/us?
o How can we take necessary prevention (reliability assurance) steps, etc.?
Emphasis key learning points – LL from event
o Wrap-up and review
o NERC provided discussion questions
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Cold Weather Training Site
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Extreme Winter Weather
EventsInstructor’s Guide
October 2, 2013
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Agenda
Lesson # Lesson Title & Description
1 Introduction – Objectives – Purpose – Audience
2 February 2011 – Overview of the Severe Cold Weather Event
3 FERC & NERC
4 Precedence – Previous Events
5 Winter Readiness
6 Elements of Winter Weather Preparations
7 Lessons Learned
8 Question & Answer / Supplemental Photos
9 Wrap-up / Q&A
10 EvaluationBreaks as appropriate
Course Design
Course OutcomesAt the conclusion of this session, attendees will be able to:
• Identify the contributing factors that caused the event and the consequences, as described in the event report.
• Discuss potential cold weather vulnerabilities in their respective work environments.
• Identify preventative actions that can be taken when faced with infrequent cold weather disturbances.
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Instructor’s Manual
Contents of Instructor’s Manual
Introduction
Course Overview
Training Coordination tips
Course Goals and Outcomes
Trainer Tools and Tips
Presentation Deck with Key Messages
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Review of the Exercises & Instructions
Practical Activities
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On August 15, 2011, 26 Electrical Recommendations and six GasRecommendations were issued.
FERC and NERC Recommendations
Planning & Reserves (5)
Coordination with GOs and GOPs (5)
Winterization (10)
Communications (4)
Load Shedding (2)
Gas Recommendations (6)*
Source: Outages and Curtailments During Southwest Cold Weather Event February 1–5,2011
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Instructor’s Guide
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Lesson Learned Review
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Summary of NERC Lessons Learned
Plant Instrument and Sensing Equipment Freezing due to Heat Trace and Insulation
FailuresPrimary Interest Groups:Generator Owners, Generator
Operators
Adequate Maintenance and Inspection of Generator Freeze
ProtectionPrimary Interest Groups:
Generators Owners, Generator Operators
Generating Unit Temperature Design Parameters and
Extreme Weather ConditionsPrimary Interest Groups:Generator Owners, Generator
Operators, Balancing Authorities, Reliability Coordinators
Transmission Facilities and Winter Weather Operations
Primary Interest Groups:Generator Owners, Generator
Operators, Transmission Owners, Transmission Operators
Rotational Load ShedPrimary Interest Groups:
Transmission Owners, Transmission Operators, Load-Serving Entities,
Distribution Providers
Plant Operator Training to Prepare for a Winter Weather
EventPrimary Interest Groups: Generator Owners, Generator
Operators, Balancing Authorities
Plant Onsite Material and Personnel Needed for a Winter
Weather EventPrimary Interest Groups: Generator Owners, Generator
Operators
Southwest Cold Weather Event
Plant Fuel Switching and Cold Weather
Primary Interest Groups:Reliability Coordinators, Balancing Authorities, Plant Owners, Plant
Operators
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Summary of NERC Lessons LearnedContinued
Capacity Awareness During an Energy Emergency Event Primary Interest Groups:
Transmission Owners , Transmission Operators , Reliability Coordinator ,
Generator Owners , Generator Operators , Balancing Authority,
Interchange Authority , Purchase-Selling Entity
Gas and Electric Interdependency Primary Interest Groups:
Reliability Coordinator, Balancing Authorities , Generator Operators, Generator Owners , Transmission
Owners, Transmission Operators (TOP) Distribution Providers (DP)
Transformer Oil Level Issues During Cold Weather
Primary Interest Groups:Transmission Operators , Transmission
Owners , Balancing Authorities , Generator Operators, Generator Owners
Winter Storm Inlet Air Duct Icing Primary Interest Groups:
Generator Operators , Generator Owners
Southwest Cold Weather Event
Wind Farm Winter Storm IssuesPrimary Interest Groups:
Balancing Authorities, Generator Operators, Generator Owners
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• Cold Weather Training Packet is customizable to fit the needs of your organization.
• Over 80 slides with information on the Cold Weather outage for training purposes.
• 13 LLs for review and discussion.
• Complete instructor manual to facilitate a training course.
• Practical activities to support understanding of topic.
• Interactive links throughout package to additional resources.
• Training support from NERC staff on cold weather training needs.
Cold Weather Training Packet Summary
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• Overview of Southwest Cold Weather Event of February 1-5, 2011
• Overview of Polar Vortex Review January 6-7, 2014
• Winter Weather Preparation Materials Survey Results
• Lesson Learned–Southwest Cold Weather Event
• Assessment of Previous Severe Winter Weather
• Reliability Guideline: Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness
• Cold Weather Training Module
• Risk Assessment
• NERC Winter Reliability Assessment Preview 2014-15
• Questions and Answers
Agenda
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• Reduce the consequence Winter Weather Forecast
Plant Temperature Design
Freeze Protection Equipment
Fuel Supply/Switching
Procedures
Risk Management Strategy
Probability
Co
ns
eq
ue
nc
e
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Risk Management Strategy
Probability
Co
ns
eq
ue
nc
e
• Reduce the consequence Winter Weather Forecast
Plant Temperature Design
Freeze Protection Equipment
Fuel Supply/Switching
Procedures
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• Overview of Southwest Cold Weather Event of February 1-5, 2011
• Overview of Polar Vortex Review January 6-7, 2014
• Winter Weather Preparation Materials Survey Results
• Lesson Learned–Southwest Cold Weather Event
• Assessment of Previous Severe Winter Weather
• Reliability Guideline: Generating Unit Winter Weather Readiness
• Cold Weather Training Module
• Risk Assessment
• NERC Winter Reliability Assessment Preview 2014-15
• Questions and Answers
Agenda
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2014-15 Winter Reliability Assessment Preliminary FindingsElliott Nethercutt, Senior Technical Analyst Reliability AssessmentsNERC 2014-15 Winter Preparation WebinarOctober 2, 2014
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2014-15 Winter Reliability AssessmentReserve Margins
Preliminary Data
All Assessment Areas above the Reference Margin Levels for the 2014-15 Winter
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Winter Reliability AssessmentPreliminary Key Reliability Findings
• Fuel Availability During the Winter
• NERC-wide natural gas during the winter peak: 41%
• Natural gas storage inventories: deficit continues to narrow Injection season has exceeded average
(lower gas prices)
Strong domestic production
Mild summer
• Rail congestion could impact PRB coal shipments
• Gas-electric coordination update
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2014-15 Winter Reliability AssessmentWinter Preparation Efforts
• MISO Winter Readiness Workshop
Proposal for seasonal DR constructs and better visibility of Voluntary Load Management (VLM)
Ongoing improvements to coordination activities between gas and electric industries
Enhanced market procedures
• PJM Improved data sharing and coordination with the gas industry
Gas unit commitment coordination in real-time operations
Ability to call DR during the winter (new market product)
Implementation of a weatherization checklist and enhanced emergency procedures
Improved availability of operational data
Enhanced interregional coordination and situational awareness during emergencies
•
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• NPCC-New England (ISO-NE)
The 2014-15 Winter Reliability program developed by ISO-New England supports fuel inventory and availability by implementing the following:
o Dual-fuel programs to aid commissioning costs, fuel swap testing costs, and costs associated with storing fuel oil during the winter
o Performance audits for dual-fuel generators and DR programs to ensure availability
o Increased ability to call DR during the winter (up to 30 activations)
o New programs to incentivize contracts for LNG prior to the winter
ISO-New England has also modified information policies to allow for improved gas-electric coordination (per FERC Order 787)
• TRE-ERCOT
Improved forecasting capabilities and more advanced communication tools
Winter preparation seminars and site visits to ensure proper winterization of units
Improved coordination and unit commitment procedures to identify short-term outages or fuel restrictions in advance of extreme weather
Improved coordination with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ)
2014-15 Winter Reliability AssessmentWinter Preparation Efforts
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Remaining Milestones
• 2014/15 Winter Reliability Assessment November 4, 2014: NERC Planning Committee endorsement
November 20, 2014: NERC Board of Trustees approval vote
November 24, 2014: Target Release
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Jule TateManager, Event [email protected]
Matthew LewisManager of Training and [email protected]
Elliott NethercuttSenior Technical Analyst Reliability [email protected]
James Merlo, PhDDirector, Reliability Risk [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]