winter preparedness of the natural gas and electric supply
TRANSCRIPT
Winter Preparedness of the
Natural Gas and Electric Supply
Office of Electric, Gas, and Water
Office of Consumer Services
October 19, 2017
Albany, New York
2017-2018 Winter Season
2
Natural Gas
Winter OutlookCynthia H. McCarran
Deputy Director of Gas & Water
Office of Electric, Gas and Water
3
Adequate Capacity and Supplies
Review of expected customer requirements for design weather conditions for this winter.
Review of supplies to meet expected customer requirements for design weather conditions for this winter.
Staff will continue to monitor supply, prices and interruptible customers throughout the winter
4
NY Central Park Historic Heating Seasons
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Pea
k H
DD
s
Tota
l S
easo
n
HD
Ds
Winter SeasonsSeason HDDs Peak HDDs
5
LDC Commodity Portfolio Firm Customers
2017-18
Typical
Portfolio
2016-17
Winter
Forecast
$/dth
2016-17
Winter
Actual
$/dth
2017-18
Winter
Forecast
$/dth
Physical
Storage35% $1.85 $1.71 $2.26
Hedged Supply 16% $2.73 $2.68 $3.18
Flowing Gas 49% $2.53 $2.96 $3.23
Average Winter
Commodity
Price
$2.33 $2.54 $2.90
35%
16%
49%
New York State Gas UtilityTypical 2017-18 Winter Supply
Portfolio
Storage Hedged Unhedged
6
Statewide Avg. Winter BillsResidential Heating
Customer
2016-17
Actual
Weather
2016-17
Normal
Weather
2017-18
Normal
Weather
% Change
Normal
2016-17
vs.
Normal
2017-18
$705 $738 $797 +8.0%
7
Summary
NY gas utilities have contracted for adequate capacity and supplies and are ready to meet 2017-2018 winter conditions
Commodity prices are projected to rise compared to last year, but remain lower than the five year average
Compared to the five year average, customer bills this winter are expected to be slightly higher
8
Bulk Electric System
Preparedness
Vijay Puran
Bulk Electric Systems
Office of Electric, Gas and Water
9
New York State Historic Coincident Peaks
25,738 Record Winter Peak
Forecast24,365
Record Summer Peak 33,956
29,699
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MW
Year
Historic Coincident Peaks
Winter
Summer
10
New York Winter 2017/18 Capability & Load
NYISO Provided Data MW
Winter Generation Capacity 41,454
New York Special Case Resources (SCRs) 792
Net Purchases & Sales 2311
LESS: Total Projected Capacity Outages (4,772)
NET WINTER CAPACITY RESOURCES 39,785
Winter Peak Load Forecast 24,365
Operating Reserve Requirement 2,620
Capacity Margin 12,800
11
Major Generating Facilities Assessment
Staff reached out to major generating facility owners located primarily on the
southeastern portion of New York
Lessons learned and beneficial changes made as result of the 2013/2014 Polar
Vortex are continuing
On-site storage and replenishment of fuel oil is a critical issue
State Agencies and NYISO Winter Protocol
12
NYISO
NYISO Winter 2017/2018 Preparations
Continue enhancements and activities developed over recent years
• Use enhanced shortage pricing curves to incent generators to meet day-ahead commitments
• Increase total operating reserve requirements
• Monitor fuel availability
• Share confidential operational information with interstate pipelines
Neighboring RTO/ISO
ISO New England
• Winter Reliability Program
PJM
• Enhanced Capacity Performance Program
13
Electric Utility Portfolio
Price Volatility and
Supply Price Outlook
Paul J. Darmetko Jr.
Electric Rates & Tariffs
Office of Electric, Gas and Water
14
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Co
eff
icie
nt
of
Va
ria
tio
nNYISO Spot Market vs.
Utility Full Service Residential Customer Supply Portfolio Volatility
(Statewide 12-month rolling average)
Portfolio Market
15
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
$/M
Wh
NYISO Day Ahead-Around The Clock Historic Actual Energy Prices vs. NYMEX Futures
West Actual West Futures
Hudson Actual Hudson Futures
NYC Actual NYC Futures
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NY West LBMP ($/MWH)
NY Hudson Valley LBMP ($/MWH)
New York City LBMP ($/MWH)
$31.83
$52.21
$54.93
$25.56
$37.54
$38.32
$40.68
$53.51
$55.43
Average Energy Price Comparison Winter Season
NYMEX Futures Dec 2016 - Mar 2017
Day Ahead Market Dec 2016 -Mar 2017
NYMEX Futures Dec 2017 - Mar 2018
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0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016 - 2017 2017 - 2018Est.
Statewide Weighted Average Full Service Residential Supply Price - Winter Months
(Cents per kWh)
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Outreach and Education
Programs for 2017-18
Winter Season
Andrew Bisnett
Consumer Outreach and Education
Office of Consumer Services
19
Financial assistance/bill payment options
Steps to improve energy efficiency
Safety information regarding natural gas,
electricity and carbon monoxide
Storm preparation
Messages
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DPS Outreach Efforts
Educational materials
Grassroots – events, website, customer
service
Partnerships with service organizations,
government agencies, community groups