Wintertime PM in UtahWintertime PM in Utah

Utah’s mountain valleys and wintertime temperature inversions provide ideal Utah’s mountain valleys and wintertime temperature inversions provide ideal conditions for the formation of fine particulate.conditions for the formation of fine particulate.

PM2.5 Concentrations build as temperature inversions persist.PM2.5 Concentrations build as temperature inversions persist.

Utah will need to develop State Implementation Plans to meet revised federal Health Utah will need to develop State Implementation Plans to meet revised federal Health Standards for PM2.5 Standards for PM2.5

BackgroundBackground

The Clean Air Act identifies 6 criteria pollutants The Clean Air Act identifies 6 criteria pollutants (CO, Lead, NO(CO, Lead, NO22, Ozone, , Ozone, Particulate MatterParticulate Matter, SO, SO22) )

Establishes National Ambient Air Quality Establishes National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for each in order to protect Standards (NAAQS) for each in order to protect public healthpublic health

UDAQ monitors the air to determine whether or UDAQ monitors the air to determine whether or not Utah is meeting these standardsnot Utah is meeting these standards

ParticlesParticles

Fine Particles lodge deeply into the lungs, and are associated with serious health problems, including heart and lung diseases, and premature death.

PM2.5 in UtahPM2.5 in Utah

Most of Utah’s Wintertime Particulate is Most of Utah’s Wintertime Particulate is Fine Particulate, or PM2.5Fine Particulate, or PM2.5

Most of Utah’s PM2.5 is “Secondary” PMMost of Utah’s PM2.5 is “Secondary” PM

This Wintertime Smog develops in, and is This Wintertime Smog develops in, and is trapped by, mountain valleys and trapped by, mountain valleys and temperature inversionstemperature inversions

Revised NAAQS for PM2.5Revised NAAQS for PM2.5

EPA revised the NAAQS for PM2.5 in December EPA revised the NAAQS for PM2.5 in December of 2006of 2006

– 24-hr standard was lowered from 65 micrograms per 24-hr standard was lowered from 65 micrograms per

cubic meter (µg/mcubic meter (µg/m33) to 35 µg/m) to 35 µg/m33

– Annual standard was retained at 15 µg/mAnnual standard was retained at 15 µg/m33

– Retained the 24-hr standard for PM10 at 150 µg/mRetained the 24-hr standard for PM10 at 150 µg/m33

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1971

1986

1996

2006

TSP- 260

PM10 - 150PM2.5 - 65

PM2.5 - 35ug/m

31974 – 3080 ug/m3 TSP

1987 – 487 ug/m3 TSP

1992 – 267 ug/m3 PM10

2002 – 91.6 ug/m3 PM2.5

Salt Lake Valley Maximum

2008 – 59.6 ug/m3 PM2.5

Particulate Matter StandardsParticulate Matter Standards

Monitored levels of PM2.5Monitored levels of PM2.5

PM2.5 3-yr average of 98th Percentile of the 24-hr Concentration

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000-2002 2001-2003 2002-2004 2003-2005 2004-2006 2005-2007 2006-2008

PM

2.5

(u

g/m

3)

Standard (65) Standard (35) Lindon Hawthorne

N. Salt Lake Ogden #2 Logan

TimelineTimeline

The Clean Air Act lays out a 5-year process from The Clean Air Act lays out a 5-year process from revision of the standard to completion of a State revision of the standard to completion of a State Implementation Plan (SIP)Implementation Plan (SIP)

The First 2 years are used to define the area boundariesThe First 2 years are used to define the area boundaries

– Year 1: The State makes a recommendation to EPAYear 1: The State makes a recommendation to EPA– Year 2: The EPA makes the final designationsYear 2: The EPA makes the final designations

The next 3 years are used to develop the SIPThe next 3 years are used to develop the SIP

PM2.5 Area DesignationsPM2.5 Area Designations

UDAQ has completed its work on area designations for PM2.5 and the Governor submitted Utah’s recommendations to EPAUDAQ has completed its work on area designations for PM2.5 and the Governor submitted Utah’s recommendations to EPA

UDAQ based its recommendation on a technical evaluation of local dataUDAQ based its recommendation on a technical evaluation of local data

EPA considered Utah’s recommendation, but expanded the areasEPA considered Utah’s recommendation, but expanded the areas

Utah’s Recommendation EPA’s Proposed Final Designation

Great Salt Lake

Great Salt Lake

Current StatusCurrent Status

EPA has not published its findings in the Federal EPA has not published its findings in the Federal Register, meaning:Register, meaning:

– there is still no effective date, and there is still no effective date, and

– none of the clocks are ticking just yet, giving UDAQ more time to none of the clocks are ticking just yet, giving UDAQ more time to develop and implement strategies to reduce pollutiondevelop and implement strategies to reduce pollution

– SIP will be due 3 years after the effective dateSIP will be due 3 years after the effective date

Even though the clocks are not ticking, UDAQ has been Even though the clocks are not ticking, UDAQ has been working on a PM2.5 SIPworking on a PM2.5 SIP

State Implementation PlanState Implementation PlanEssentially a Essentially a 3-year process3-year process

Basic Project Phases include:Basic Project Phases include:

– Model ValidationModel ValidationIncludes Episode Selection, Inventories, Meteorological DataIncludes Episode Selection, Inventories, Meteorological Data

– Control Strategy Testing / DevelopmentControl Strategy Testing / DevelopmentSensitivity runs to Identify TargetsSensitivity runs to Identify TargetsIdentification of Possible ControlsIdentification of Possible ControlsProjection Inventories are tested in the modelProjection Inventories are tested in the model

– AdministrativeAdministrativeSIP writing & processingSIP writing & processingEmission LimitsEmission LimitsTechnical DocumentationTechnical DocumentationAssociated RulemakingsAssociated Rulemakings

Early SIP WorkEarly SIP Work

Phase I – Model ValidationPhase I – Model Validation

Work is already underway to develop the Air Work is already underway to develop the Air Quality Model used to support the SIPQuality Model used to support the SIP

– Modeling Domain includes most of Northern UtahModeling Domain includes most of Northern Utah

– Simulates the chemical and physical processes Simulates the chemical and physical processes important to PM2.5 (and ozone) formationimportant to PM2.5 (and ozone) formation

– Will ultimately be the tool for evaluating the Will ultimately be the tool for evaluating the effectiveness of possible control strategieseffectiveness of possible control strategies

CMAQ Modeling DomainCMAQ Modeling Domain

Grid-based Regional Grid-based Regional Scale ModelScale Model

Simulates Atmospheric Simulates Atmospheric Chemistry & DispersionChemistry & Dispersion

Input Hourly Emissions Input Hourly Emissions & Meteorology& Meteorology

Outputs Hourly Gridded Outputs Hourly Gridded ConcentrationsConcentrations

EmissionsEmissions

Modeled PMModeled PM2.52.5

ConcentrationsConcentrationsAir Quality ModelAir Quality Model

NOxNOx

SO4SO4

NH3NH3

NONO

NH3NH3

NHNH 33+HNO+HNO 33

NH N

H 44NONO 33

OH+NOOH+NO22 HNOHNO

33

NONO22+O+O33 NO NO33

83%83%

-5-5°°

250m250m

NW 6NW 6

Meteorology

Chemistry

Must replicate the complex chemistry of winter-Must replicate the complex chemistry of winter-time Fine Particulate (PMtime Fine Particulate (PM2.52.5) Formation) Formation

Speciated PM2.5 DataSpeciated PM2.5 Data January 2004 InversionJanuary 2004 Inversion

Species and Total ConcentrationsHW

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10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1/4/0

4

1/5/0

4

1/6/0

4

1/7/0

4

1/8/0

4

1/9/0

4

1/10

/04

1/11

/04

1/12

/04

1/13

/04

1/14

/04

1/15

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1/16

/04

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/04

Sp

ec

ies

Co

nc

en

tratio

ns

(ug

/m^

3)

NO3 NH4 SO4 Unknown Other Species

Winter Emissions InventoryWinter Emissions Inventory

NOx PM2.5 Reactive VOC0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000Salt Lake County

Kilo

gra

ms/D

ay

Categories of Sources include Mobile (cars), Point (industry), and Area (urban activity.)Categories of Sources include Mobile (cars), Point (industry), and Area (urban activity.)

Not only PM2.5 emissions, but also precursor emissions that become chemically altered during Not only PM2.5 emissions, but also precursor emissions that become chemically altered during winter inversions to form more particulatewinter inversions to form more particulate

Some of these precursor gasses are also important to summertime ozone formationSome of these precursor gasses are also important to summertime ozone formation

MobilePointArea

Local Data InputLocal Data Input

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

0 24 48 72 96

Hours

COnc

entra

tion

(ppb

)

O3 NO2NO O3 NO NO2

February 14-17, 2004#74

Model PredictionModel PredictionNOxNOx CO2CO2

VOCVOCNH3NH3

COCO

MOBILE 6

NMIM (National Mobile Inventory Model)MOVES (Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator)

Vehicle Vehicle Emissions in Emissions in TonsTons

Mobile Emission ModelsMobile Emission Models

SOxSOx PM2.5PM2.5

Emission FactorEmission FactorModelModel

Air QualityChemistry Model

Fuel TypeFuel Type

Vehicle TypeVehicle Type

Temperature / Temperature / HumidityHumidity

Vehicle SpeedVehicle Speed

Vehicle Miles Travel (VMT)Vehicle Miles Travel (VMT)

I/M ProgramI/M Program

Preliminary Modeling RunsPreliminary Modeling Runs

UDAQ has been running the Air Quality model in order to UDAQ has been running the Air Quality model in order to replicate measured values from past episodes.replicate measured values from past episodes.

This step insures that the model will be suitable for This step insures that the model will be suitable for testing control strategies later on.testing control strategies later on.

Modeling is preliminary, but the next slide shows some Modeling is preliminary, but the next slide shows some early results:early results:

Work in the Coming YearsWork in the Coming Years

Control strategies will be evaluated for all sectors within Control strategies will be evaluated for all sectors within the airshedthe airshed

– PM2.5 and the precursors that form PM2.5 (NOx, SO2, VOC) PM2.5 and the precursors that form PM2.5 (NOx, SO2, VOC) from point sources will be consideredfrom point sources will be considered

– Controls on area sources such as wood burning and fugitive Controls on area sources such as wood burning and fugitive dust will be considereddust will be considered

– Mobile sources will be evaluated for various I/M strategies Mobile sources will be evaluated for various I/M strategies (including on-board diagnostics (OBD) and diesel)(including on-board diagnostics (OBD) and diesel)

Modeled Attainment DemonstrationModeled Attainment Demonstration

– Shows that control strategies will sufficient to meet the standardsShows that control strategies will sufficient to meet the standards

Stakeholder InvolvementStakeholder Involvement

SIP development is an open stakeholder processSIP development is an open stakeholder process

Stakeholders include:Stakeholders include:

– Local government officialsLocal government officials– IndustryIndustry– Concerned CitizensConcerned Citizens– Transportation OfficialsTransportation Officials

UDAQ held kick-off meetings in Salt Lake and Cache CountiesUDAQ held kick-off meetings in Salt Lake and Cache Counties

– Well AttendedWell Attended– There will be more meetings as the SIP is developedThere will be more meetings as the SIP is developed

Next StepsNext Steps

Project has just begunProject has just begun– Will take about 3 yearsWill take about 3 years

Work is already underwayWork is already underway– Episode SelectionEpisode Selection– Episodic Emissions InventoriesEpisodic Emissions Inventories– Assimilation of representative Meteorological DataAssimilation of representative Meteorological Data

We will likely re-convene when we have a We will likely re-convene when we have a Validated AQ ModelValidated AQ Model