wired for war book review by chong shi hao

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.37 NO.2

Book Review

by CPT Chong Shi Hao

A group of top Counterstrike gamers who won the World Cyber Games championship a few years ago are vigorously clicking on their mouse. Their characters are constantly moving, hunting down their enemies with grenades and assault rifl es. A sense of thrilling exhilaration electrifi es their coordinated movements, like a well-trained four man SWAT section.

“Bang!” goes one of their SAR 21 rifl es.

“Yeah! I’ve got him!” one of them exclaims as he watches his target in camoufl age uniform collapse.

The captain behind them congratulates them for their successful mission and orders them to move their robots back to camp for After Operation Servicing. They are taking part in the Army’s latest trial program on future combat drones, operated by talented youngsters adept at fi rst person shooter games.

A fi ctitious anecdote which probably sounds far-fetched, but this might not be too impossible,

thinks Peter Warren Singer in his book Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Confl ict in the 21st Century.1 He is the Director of the 21st Century Defense Initiative at the Brookings Institution and is considered one of the world’s foremost experts on changes in 21st century warfare.2 Wired for War is written based on a combination of hard data, interviews, anecdotes and unclassifi ed information. Its analysis draws from the intersection of politics, society and popular culture in order to understand people’s attitudes towards, acceptance of and acquisition of unmanned technologies for military use. This book also explores the political, legal and ethical problems surrounding the use of robots.

This thought provoking book comes at a timely moment as many developed and developing armed forces invest time and treasure on the research and development of unmanned and robotic technologies. The proliferated use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by the Central Intelligence Agency of USA in surveillance and assassination of

E C-F

Book Review of P. W. Singer, Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Confl ict in the 21st Century, NY: The Penguin Press, 2009, 512 pages.

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high value targets in Afghanistan and Pakistan has created new vistas in waging modern warfare. In a way, this has invigorated interest in pursuing unmanned warfare as a way of revolutionizing future wars.

Certainly for the Singapore Armed Forces, the creation of UAV Command in the Airforce and the introduction of Skyblade and Spartan Scout Unmanned Surface Vessels (USV) in the Army and Navy respectively have augmented our unmanned capabilities too. This book facilitates discussion pertaining to ongoing developments and the corollary issues surrounding this new trend towards unmanned technologies.

Military robotics scored its fi rst tactical success during the 1982 war between Israel and Lebanon (Syria’s proxy). The Israelis fl ew UAVs to gather the electronic frequencies of Syrian radars and then sent in a swarm of UAVs emitting fake signals. The Syrians mistook this for a real attack and fi red off their anti-air missiles. While they were reloading, Israeli warplanes fl ew over and destroyed the Syrian air defenses. Following this debacle, the Syrians were defenseless against the subsequent Israeli onslaught. The Israeli success thus aroused worldwide interest in the use of unmanned technology.

Remote controlled robots are particularly useful for ”Three Ds” —jobs that are ”dull, dirty and dangerous.” One potential use in war (the Packbot) is to disarm bombs and improvised explosive devices (IEDs), made famous in the award-winning movie Hurt Locker. One astounding fact demonstrates this: the US advanced from Kuwait to Baghdad without a single robot in 2003. Since then, 7000 unmanned aircraft and 12,000 ground robots have been added to their arsenal. This testifi es to the advantages conferred upon troops by the use of robots.

Singer postulates that the current developments of such ”warbots” can one day dominate

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battlefi elds. Some examples include MAARS (Modular Advanced Armed Robotic System), which can carry machine guns, grenade launchers and even non-lethal weapons; and the UCAV (Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle), which is specially designed to ultimately replace human pilots. Ongoing research will make current robots more autonomous and independent in their actions. Such a development begs several questions: is it going to be a partnership between Artifi cial Intelligence and humans, a substitution, or some other forms of working relationship on the future battlefi eld? What will happen as robots become better armed and more autonomous, but stop short of the autonomy found in Issac Asimov’s science fi ction works?

Singer argues that rather than

a scenario of robots replacing

humans, it will be a dynamic

team up between the two in the

future. Humans may still remain

in the decision-making loop,

albeit a wider one. However,

this may gradually become more

diffi cult for humans as weapons

and platforms become too fast,

too numerous and too complex

for us to direct, and control.

In other words, humans may be

excluded as decision loops become

too fast for us to manage. As such,

as the technology matures, the

challenge will be to enable humans

to exercise effective command

and control over these systems.

Network-Centric Warfare (NCW) has been much lauded, thus the alternative view offered by Singer on what is the true Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) makes it a refreshing read. Inasmuch as the links provided by networks have tried to lift the fog of war, it will be the linked platforms that history will remember—the robots. As Christopher Coker comments, “We now stand on the cusp of post-human history.” What Singer is saying that NCW merely improved the way we do things, i.e. the manner we collect, process and disseminate information. But robotics will change how “warriors think about their weapons and their fellow soldiers (in this case robots),” while “commanders will wrestle with new dilemmas of how to fi ght and how to lead.”3 He believes that this is the true revolution.

One example cited was how generals can now use information technology to monitor and interfere with each tactical decisions made by smaller sub-units, giving them “unprecedented ability to meddle in mission commanders’ jobs.”4 Unmanned systems therefore intermesh supervision and micromanagement, creating “tactical generals” who can instruct the “strategic corporal” on what to do.5

Christopher Coker believes that the development of technology has been to make war more humane. It demonstrates the West’s desire to humanize war, embrace modernity and reduce casualties.6 This is also

characterized by public and political inability to stomach the sight of returning body bags from military misadventures. This perhaps will continue to drive the growth of unmanned technologies as postmodern militaries ”outsource” dangerous fi ghting to robots, similar to the hiring of mercenaries in the past. Therefore, as robots become a greater part of an army, the public’s relationship with it will evolve. It might be easier for them to vote for military action since less blood will be shed, causing governments to be less hesitant to use force rather than diplomacy to solve confl icts.

As robotic technologies become cheaper and more common, the military will also lose its monopolistic control over unmanned warfare. It would not be too diffi cult for non-state actors to purchase robots off the shelf, modify and deploy it in asymmetric warfare against their larger foes. One frightening prospect will be the use of “suicide robots,” instead of suicide bombers, to terrorize civilian populations.

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SAFWhat then can the SAF take

note of, if Singer’s observations and predictions are correct? Robotics and unmanned technologies could be the way, if not the only way, forward. This is driven by both technological progress and societal pressure (demographic and cultural), as our society advances.

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First, we need to develop a coherent doctrine in our employment of new robotic technology. We may not see the need now, as such systems are limited to doing dirty jobs like clearing explosives. However, it will be important when we eventually employ unmanned platforms with human operated ones. History has shown how the Germans combined the use of radio communications and tanks, coming up with a doctrine that enabled them to execute Blitzkrieg. The British and the French had similar technologies but failed to use them in a coherent manner. The SAF will not want to repeat their mistakes.

One exciting idea suggested for the Navy is the use of a mothership with unmanned aerial vehicles to patrol the sea, robotic mini-subs to defend against submarine threats in littoral waters and attack surface vessels. Sailors will stay on the ship behind control stations while these platforms will extend the ship’s sphere of infl uence.

Another future possibility is that of soldier-robot sections, with soldiers giving commands to robots. Though roboticists such as Robert Finkelstein predict that humanoid robots will become a reality by 2025, the process will be more of an integration in armies rather than a replacement of boots on the ground. With Singapore’s demographic challenges, we can envisage a fi ghting section reinforced with armed robots that

will augment the fi repower and maneuverability of the section. This will reduce the number of troopers needed in our current seven man section. Such robots can even be controlled remotely from platforms like armored fi ghting vehicles, further protecting our soldiers who now fi ght in a predominantly urban environment. The vehicle will function like a mothership that deploys smaller drones that can take out the enemy.

We also need to consider the cultural resistance towards a greater integration of robots in our combat units. Unfamiliarity and a sense of alien foreignness will be naturally felt while working shoulder to shoulder with robots. The greatest resistance may come from pilots, if one day unmanned fi ghter planes outperform human piloted ones, such as the Boeing X-45. The very best human pilot takes 0.3s to react to any simple stimulus and twice as long to make a choice between several possible responses whereas robots take less than a millionth of a second.

In the long run, the trend ahead appears to be a greater deployment of unmanned technologies and robots. There are many advantages to this, though various issues such as doctrine and cultural resistance have to be worked out. Robots will not be a deus ex machina for war, though their inclusion in armies can reduce human involvement and hence casualties. We are still

a long way from seeing robots and soldiers working together intimately on the battlefi eld. But if it is likely to happen, now is the time to start thinking about it.

ENDNOTES

1. P. W. Singer, Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Confl ict in the 21st Century (New York: Penguin, 2009)

2. P. W. Singer, “Biography,” 4 January 2011, http://www.pwsinger.com/biography.html.

3. Singer, Wired for War, 203-204.

4. Ibid., 349.

5. Ibid., 350.

6. C. Coker, Humane Warfare (London: Routledge, 2001).

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wired for war book review by chong shi hao

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