wireless nomadicity (ftth 2014)

COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Marc Jadoul (@mjadoul)

Stockholm, 18 February 2014

IS THE FUTURE OF WIRELESS WIRED? FTTX IN SUPPORT OF NOMADIC BROADBAND USERS

2


The trend has

been that mobile

was winning.

It's now won.

Eric Schmidt Executive Chairman, Google

Source: http://mashable.com/2013/12/30/eric-schmidt-predictions-2014

2


3


MOBILE TRAFFIC KEEPS GROWING,

WITH VIDEO PLAYING AN EVER MORE PROMINENT ROLE

Browsing

Music

Video

Games & Apps

Other

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2012

5,326

PB

21,500

PB

Source: Strategy Analytics, Handset Data Traffic (2013)

4


MASLOW’S HIERARCHY REDEFINED

PSYCHOLOGICAL food, water, shelter, warmth, …

SAFETY security, stability, safety

BELONGINGNESS & LOVE intimate relationships, friends

SELF-ESTEEM prestige & feeling of accomplishment

SELF- ACTUALIZATION

achieving one’s full potential & creativity

Source: http://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html

5


NEW USAGE PATTERNS CHALLENGE MOBILE NETWORKS

63% OF USERS SAY

IT’S IMPORTANT

TO BE CONNECTED

AT ALL TIMES

62% OF USERS SAY

MOBILE DATA

SPEEDS ARE

VERY IMPORTANT

58% OF USERS SAY ALWAYS-ON

CONNECTIVITY IS

IMPORTANT FOR THEIR

SOCIAL LIVES

26% OF 4G USERS CHECK

SOCIAL MEDIA MORE

THAN 10X A DAY

25% OF 4G USERS SPEND 3 OR

MORE HOURS A DAY ON

THE INTERNET EVERY DAY

26% OF 4G USERS

DOWNLOAD, UPLOAD,

AND STREAM VIDEOS

Sources: Yankee Group US Consumer Survey (2012), 4GEE Mobile Living Index & Orange Exposure (2013)

6


DEMAND FOR (DENSE) WIRELESS ACCESS

IN PUBLIC PLACES IS RISING

Sports stadium

Train/bus station

Airport

Office

Hospital

Shopping mall

Convention center

High street

School

Hotel

Supermarket

Retail shop

Multi Dweller Units

House

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

Average Mb/s per 10m2

Source: Ruckus Wireless (2012)

7


EVEN WITHIN THE HOME,

MOBILE MULTIMEDIA IS BECOMING PERVASIVE

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Outdoor mobile data usage Indoor mobile data usage

70%

80%

90%

100%

iPad iPhone Blackberry

% OF USE INDOORS

Source: Mobile Experts (2012), GigaOM (2012)

8


SMARTPHONES AND TABLETS

TEND TO PLAY DIFFERENT ROLES

67% 65%

53%

31%

74%

68%

51%

49% 75%

74%

65%

60%

58%

34%

22%

20%

Living room

Bedroom

Kitchen

Home office

While traveling

Car

Public trarnsport

Daily commute

Restaurant

Friend’s house

Outdoors

Work

Other

Library

School

In stores

Where do you access

the internet on your

SMARTPHONE ?

72% 63%

40%

26%

48%

18%

15%

9%

30%

28%

26%

20%

14%

12%

10%

8%

Living room

Bedroom

Kitchen

Home office

While traveling

Car

Public transport Daily

commute

Restaurant

Friend’s house

In stores

Where do you access

the internet on your

TABLET?

Outdoors

Work

Other

Library

School

Source: Forrester Research (2013)

9


NEED FOR DIFFERENT ‘MIXES’ OF

MOBILITY, CAPACITY AND COVERAGE

Macro coverage Small cells & Wi-Fi

Mainly low bandwidth services

Often high bandwidth services

Full mobility Nomadic usage

10


NOMADIC VIDEO IS SOARING WITH A 73% CAGR

200,000

160,000

120,000

80,000

40,000

0

180,000

140,000

100,000

60,000

20,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Home video users (premium content)

Nomadic video users (premium content)

Mobile video users (premium content)

Source: The NPD Group (US, 2011)

11


NOMADIC BROADBAND ROLLOUT OPPORTUNITIES

12


DEFINING THE IDEAL NETWORK FOR WIRELESS NOMADS

a wireless HetNet mixing 3G/4G

macro cells, small cells and Wi-Fi

automatic network discovery,

selection and authentication,

with seamless handover between

cellular and Wi-Fi access

a high-capacity, fiber-based mobile

backhaul and transport network

13


FIBER+WIRELESS ULTRA-BROADBAND

DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS

Small Cell Backhaul

Fiber + Copper/Cable to the Homespot/Enterprise Hotspot

Fiber to the

Streetspot

14


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Requir

ed d

ow

nst

ream

MBH

capacit

y (

Mb/s)

CURRENT FTTX TECHNOLOGIES CAN FULFILL

GROWING BACKHAUL CAPACITY NEEDS

Highest capacity site (1 operator)

Capacity site (1 operator)

Coverage site (1 operator)

Public access small cell (1 operator)

Highest capacity site (3 collocated operators)

GPON

G.fast (vectoring)

VDSL2 (vectoring)

TWDM PON

(~40 Gb/s)

…

Sources: Heavy Reading (2013), Alcatel-Lucent — data speeds may depend on loop and noise conditions

15


FTTX TECHNOLOGY FOR MOBILE BACKHAUL

LEADS TO FASTER NETWORK MONETIZATION

RESIDENTIAL ULTRA-BB UBIQUITOUSLY AVAILABLE

PON P2P VDSL BONDING

POWERING CLOCK SYNC BANDWIDTH

LOWER OPEX MBH WHOLESALE REVENUES

MONTHLY COST PER MBPS BY TECHNOLOGY

T1/E1/DS3 copper

Microwave radio

Ethernet copper/fiber

Sources: ABI Research (Western-Europe, 2013), Alcatel-Lucent

16


CONCLUSION: WIRELESS AND WIRELINE ARE

THE YIN AND YANG OF BROADBAND GROWTH

WIRELESS DEVICES & APPS

WIRELINE OFFLOAD & BACKHAUL

wireless nomadicity (ftth 2014)

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