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LitePoint Confidential © 2011 LitePoint, A Teradyne Company. All rights reserved. LitePoint Confidential © 2011 LitePoint, A Teradyne Company. All rights reserved. Curtis Schmidek Vice President of Marketing Wireless Technology and Market Trends

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Page 1: Wireless Technology and Market Trends - · PDF fileWireless Technology and Market Trends. ... • Ideal for dual-mode and MIMO systems ... markettrends_curtis.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

L i teP o i n t C on f i d e n t i a l© 2011 L i t eP o in t , A Te r ad yn e C om pan y. A l l r i gh t s r e se r ved . L i t eP o i n t C on f i d e n t i a l© 2011 L i t eP o in t , A Te r ad yn e C om pan y. A l l r i gh t s r e se r ved .

Curtis SchmidekVice President of Marketing

Wireless Technology andMarket Trends

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Session Topics

• Quick Market Check:-Key Markets and Underlying Technology

• The Big Bang Theory: -What’s Created by the Smartphone Supernova

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-What’s Created by the Smartphone Supernova

• New Directions for Wi-Fi:-Going both Low and High (802.11ah, af, ad)

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Market Projections

Device / Market 2013 2017 CAGR (’13-’17) Notes

Mobile Subscriptions 7.0 billion 9.0 billion 6.5%Portio Research(only 4.0B unique subs in ‘13)

Mobile Phones (shipments)

1.8 billion 2.1 billion 3.9% IDC, Gartner, NPD

Smart Phones IDC, Gartner, NPD, CCS

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Smart Phones (shipments)

1.0 billion 1.7 billion 14.2%IDC, Gartner, NPD, CCS Insight

Tablets (shipments) 190 million 390 million 19.7% Gartner, Forrester, Canalys

Internet of Things (shipments)

175 million 1.3 billion 63.9% Piper Jaffray

Wearables (shipments) 60 million 260 million 44.3%BI, ABI, IMS, Juniper (medical/fitness: 50%+)

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Underlying Technology Projections

Technology Shipments 2013 2017 CAGR (’13-’17)

Notes

LTE 225 million 750 million 35.1% CCS Insight

Wi-Fi 1.8 billion 3.0 billion 13.6%IDC, Gartner, HIS (50% in smart phones--offload)

802.11ac 50 million 1.4 billion 130% IHS, ABI (1M APs in 2013)

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802.11ac 50 million 1.4 billion 130% IHS, ABI (1M APs in 2013)

Bluetooth 2.5 billion 4.4 billion 15.2% ABI (50% in smart phones)

NFC (smart devices, only)270

million1.1 billion 42.1% IHS, Berg

802.11ad (WiGig) 0 750 million ∞In-Stat (15M in 2015), ABI (1.0B in 2017, 1.5B in 2018)

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The Smartphone Has Become the Center of our Personal Universe…

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Like a Black Hole, the Smartphone HasPulled in Numerous Product Categories

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But Smartphones Are Creating of a New Universe of Smart Connected Devices

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New/Reborn Product Categories Are Emerging

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Home Automation, Security, Energy Conservation

($3.6 billion in 2012, growing to $16.4 billion by 2019)

Health / Fitness / Wearables($1.4 billion in 2013,

growing to $19 billion by 2018)

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App-Enabled Devices Bring Higher Price Points(Not necessarily because they are more expensive to produce)

Conventional

Weight Scale

$55

Internet/App-Enabled

Add an App…

$149

Add an App…

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$86

IrrigationControlSystem

Pedometer

$21 $139

Add an App…

$199

Add an App…

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Products are More Useful When Connected

Lighting and Sensors Security Fitness Environmentand

Energy

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Forecasts for Wearable Shipment Vary Wildly

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Forecasts range between 50M and 375M units in 2016.Still in the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” phase.

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Still No Single Communication Standard for IoT

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Experts predict it will be 10 years until there is consolidation on an in-home connectivity standard.

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IoT-Enabling Antenna Technology

• DockOn, a LitePoint technology partner, joins us here today

• Compelling antenna technology—ideal for IoT- But applicable to full range of wireless applications

• CPL™ antennas brings several innovations and advantages:- High efficiency design - High efficiency design

• 1 to 3dB better than conventional, for better range/throughput

- Large isolation between antennas• Ideal for dual-mode and MIMO systems

- Low COGS PCB-based design• Highly repeatable in manufacturing

- Ideal for coupling/OTA test• Further COGS reductions and simplified production test

• See their demo at the break

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Wi-Fi Continues to EvolveWi-Fi Continues to Evolve

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Spectrum Choices to Meet Application Requirements

802.11af

54-72, 76-88, 174-216, 470-608,

614-806 MHz

802.11ah

802.11ad

57-66 GHz

802.11bgn

2.4-2.48 GHz

802.11a/n/ac

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755-787,902-928 MHz

Very Long Range,Low Throughput

Good Range,High Throughput

Very Short Range,Maximum Throughput

5.1-5.8 GHz

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802.11ad: Up at 60GHz and 7Gbps

• Multi-gigabit per second connections without wires

• 60 GHz enables high user density, good security, huge throughput- Range reduced to <10 meters

• Two main application areas defined:- WiGig Display Extension: transmission of audio/visual data- WiGig Display Extension: transmission of audio/visual data

• Enables wireless DisplayPort and other display interfaces • Transmission of lightly compressed or uncompressed video from a computer or

digital camera to an HDTV, monitor or projector

- WiGig Bus and Serial Extensions• Implements common computer interfaces over 60 GHz• Peer-to-peer connectivity (i.e., sync, storage, other high-speed peripherals)

• Chipset available in Q4 2013

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Aggressive Forecasts for 802.11ad(Maybe optimistic, but it is coming…)

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ABI Research (Dec 2012): 175 million in 2014 growing to 1.2 billion in 2017!marketsandmarkets (Oct 2012): 42.75 million in 2013 to reach 4.8 billion in 2018!

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802.11af: Reclaiming Underutilized TV Bands

• 802.11af “White Fi”

• Uses the “TV White Spaces” spectrum - Underutilized TV spectrum from 54 to 806 MHz

• Long range and able to penetrate into buildings:- Servicing rural environments and developing countries- Servicing rural environments and developing countries- Extending the range of Wi-Fi in urban and residential environments- Eventually to become a standard Wi-Fi mode option (at 400MHz and above)

• Need for cognitive radios: Device must use unoccupied spectrum, based on database lookup and geographic sensing.

• Trials on-going in Africa and large UK trials planned for early 2014

• Chipsets available in mid-2014

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802.11ah: <1GHz, M2M Communication

• Sub-GHz operation in the 755-787, 902-928 MHz

• Long range at low power

• Battery-powered devices with years of operational life

• Sensor networks, home/building automation, other M2M communications• Sensor networks, home/building automation, other M2M communications

• Throughput based on combining channels:- 150 kbps with a 1 MHz band - Up to 40 Mbps over an 8 MHz band- BPSK to 256QAM modulation

• Chipsets expected in 2015

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Summarizing the Newest Wi-Fi Family Members

IEEEStandard

Frequency Range

Bit Rates Range

Typical Range

Primary Application(s)

Chipset Availability

802.11ad 57-66 GHz 7 Gbps <10 metersWireless Docking,Cable Elimination,A/V Connections

Late 2013

0.15-40 Rural Area

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802.11af 54-806 MHz0.15-40 Mbps

7-15 kmRural Area Broadband,

M2MMid-2014

802.11ah755-928

MHz0.10-2.6

Mbps~ 1 km

Sensor Networks, M2M

2015

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ConclusionsConclusions

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Summary

• Market still huge for smart devices, but growth slowing

• Strong growth for the new ecosystem of devices that smartphones and tablets have enabled- Some older product categories are gone forever- But other are reborn as smart, connected device- Cumulative volume potential in the BILLIONS per year- Cumulative volume potential in the BILLIONS per year

• Wi-Fi continues to evolve, addressing new applications- 802.11ah for M2M—long range at low power- 802.11af for extending range of standard data networking applications- 802.11ad for super high-speed, short range docking and A/V application

- All under one IEEE 802 “roof” to ensure harmony

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Thank You

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