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L i teP o i n t C on f i d e n t i a l© 2011 L i t eP o in t , A Te r ad yn e C om pan y. A l l r i gh t s r e se r ved . L i t eP o i n t C on f i d e n t i a l© 2011 L i t eP o in t , A Te r ad yn e C om pan y. A l l r i gh t s r e se r ved .
Curtis SchmidekVice President of Marketing
Wireless Technology andMarket Trends
Session Topics
• Quick Market Check:-Key Markets and Underlying Technology
• The Big Bang Theory: -What’s Created by the Smartphone Supernova
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-What’s Created by the Smartphone Supernova
• New Directions for Wi-Fi:-Going both Low and High (802.11ah, af, ad)
Market Projections
Device / Market 2013 2017 CAGR (’13-’17) Notes
Mobile Subscriptions 7.0 billion 9.0 billion 6.5%Portio Research(only 4.0B unique subs in ‘13)
Mobile Phones (shipments)
1.8 billion 2.1 billion 3.9% IDC, Gartner, NPD
Smart Phones IDC, Gartner, NPD, CCS
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Smart Phones (shipments)
1.0 billion 1.7 billion 14.2%IDC, Gartner, NPD, CCS Insight
Tablets (shipments) 190 million 390 million 19.7% Gartner, Forrester, Canalys
Internet of Things (shipments)
175 million 1.3 billion 63.9% Piper Jaffray
Wearables (shipments) 60 million 260 million 44.3%BI, ABI, IMS, Juniper (medical/fitness: 50%+)
Underlying Technology Projections
Technology Shipments 2013 2017 CAGR (’13-’17)
Notes
LTE 225 million 750 million 35.1% CCS Insight
Wi-Fi 1.8 billion 3.0 billion 13.6%IDC, Gartner, HIS (50% in smart phones--offload)
802.11ac 50 million 1.4 billion 130% IHS, ABI (1M APs in 2013)
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802.11ac 50 million 1.4 billion 130% IHS, ABI (1M APs in 2013)
Bluetooth 2.5 billion 4.4 billion 15.2% ABI (50% in smart phones)
NFC (smart devices, only)270
million1.1 billion 42.1% IHS, Berg
802.11ad (WiGig) 0 750 million ∞In-Stat (15M in 2015), ABI (1.0B in 2017, 1.5B in 2018)
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The Smartphone Has Become the Center of our Personal Universe…
Like a Black Hole, the Smartphone HasPulled in Numerous Product Categories
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But Smartphones Are Creating of a New Universe of Smart Connected Devices
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New/Reborn Product Categories Are Emerging
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Home Automation, Security, Energy Conservation
($3.6 billion in 2012, growing to $16.4 billion by 2019)
Health / Fitness / Wearables($1.4 billion in 2013,
growing to $19 billion by 2018)
App-Enabled Devices Bring Higher Price Points(Not necessarily because they are more expensive to produce)
Conventional
Weight Scale
$55
Internet/App-Enabled
Add an App…
$149
Add an App…
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$86
IrrigationControlSystem
Pedometer
$21 $139
Add an App…
$199
Add an App…
Products are More Useful When Connected
Lighting and Sensors Security Fitness Environmentand
Energy
Forecasts for Wearable Shipment Vary Wildly
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Forecasts range between 50M and 375M units in 2016.Still in the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” phase.
Still No Single Communication Standard for IoT
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Experts predict it will be 10 years until there is consolidation on an in-home connectivity standard.
IoT-Enabling Antenna Technology
• DockOn, a LitePoint technology partner, joins us here today
• Compelling antenna technology—ideal for IoT- But applicable to full range of wireless applications
• CPL™ antennas brings several innovations and advantages:- High efficiency design - High efficiency design
• 1 to 3dB better than conventional, for better range/throughput
- Large isolation between antennas• Ideal for dual-mode and MIMO systems
- Low COGS PCB-based design• Highly repeatable in manufacturing
- Ideal for coupling/OTA test• Further COGS reductions and simplified production test
• See their demo at the break
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Wi-Fi Continues to EvolveWi-Fi Continues to Evolve
Spectrum Choices to Meet Application Requirements
802.11af
54-72, 76-88, 174-216, 470-608,
614-806 MHz
802.11ah
802.11ad
57-66 GHz
802.11bgn
2.4-2.48 GHz
802.11a/n/ac
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755-787,902-928 MHz
Very Long Range,Low Throughput
Good Range,High Throughput
Very Short Range,Maximum Throughput
5.1-5.8 GHz
802.11ad: Up at 60GHz and 7Gbps
• Multi-gigabit per second connections without wires
• 60 GHz enables high user density, good security, huge throughput- Range reduced to <10 meters
• Two main application areas defined:- WiGig Display Extension: transmission of audio/visual data- WiGig Display Extension: transmission of audio/visual data
• Enables wireless DisplayPort and other display interfaces • Transmission of lightly compressed or uncompressed video from a computer or
digital camera to an HDTV, monitor or projector
- WiGig Bus and Serial Extensions• Implements common computer interfaces over 60 GHz• Peer-to-peer connectivity (i.e., sync, storage, other high-speed peripherals)
• Chipset available in Q4 2013
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Aggressive Forecasts for 802.11ad(Maybe optimistic, but it is coming…)
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ABI Research (Dec 2012): 175 million in 2014 growing to 1.2 billion in 2017!marketsandmarkets (Oct 2012): 42.75 million in 2013 to reach 4.8 billion in 2018!
802.11af: Reclaiming Underutilized TV Bands
• 802.11af “White Fi”
• Uses the “TV White Spaces” spectrum - Underutilized TV spectrum from 54 to 806 MHz
• Long range and able to penetrate into buildings:- Servicing rural environments and developing countries- Servicing rural environments and developing countries- Extending the range of Wi-Fi in urban and residential environments- Eventually to become a standard Wi-Fi mode option (at 400MHz and above)
• Need for cognitive radios: Device must use unoccupied spectrum, based on database lookup and geographic sensing.
• Trials on-going in Africa and large UK trials planned for early 2014
• Chipsets available in mid-2014
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802.11ah: <1GHz, M2M Communication
• Sub-GHz operation in the 755-787, 902-928 MHz
• Long range at low power
• Battery-powered devices with years of operational life
• Sensor networks, home/building automation, other M2M communications• Sensor networks, home/building automation, other M2M communications
• Throughput based on combining channels:- 150 kbps with a 1 MHz band - Up to 40 Mbps over an 8 MHz band- BPSK to 256QAM modulation
• Chipsets expected in 2015
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Summarizing the Newest Wi-Fi Family Members
IEEEStandard
Frequency Range
Bit Rates Range
Typical Range
Primary Application(s)
Chipset Availability
802.11ad 57-66 GHz 7 Gbps <10 metersWireless Docking,Cable Elimination,A/V Connections
Late 2013
0.15-40 Rural Area
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802.11af 54-806 MHz0.15-40 Mbps
7-15 kmRural Area Broadband,
M2MMid-2014
802.11ah755-928
MHz0.10-2.6
Mbps~ 1 km
Sensor Networks, M2M
2015
ConclusionsConclusions
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Summary
• Market still huge for smart devices, but growth slowing
• Strong growth for the new ecosystem of devices that smartphones and tablets have enabled- Some older product categories are gone forever- But other are reborn as smart, connected device- Cumulative volume potential in the BILLIONS per year- Cumulative volume potential in the BILLIONS per year
• Wi-Fi continues to evolve, addressing new applications- 802.11ah for M2M—long range at low power- 802.11af for extending range of standard data networking applications- 802.11ad for super high-speed, short range docking and A/V application
- All under one IEEE 802 “roof” to ensure harmony
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Thank You
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