Wisconsin Recall Election: Political Yard Signs and Home Characteristics

in Eau Claire, WI

By Joel Albrecht6/5/2012

HypothesisPolitically segregated areas of Eau Claire can be reflected by political yard signs and can be determined by 3 variables: Median household income, median value of home, and occupation of resident.

Methodology*Research is based off of yards with political signs.

1. Locate an area which is predominantly Tom Barrett supporters and an area that shows more support for Scott Walker.

2. GPS 30 yard signs pro-Barrett and 30 yard signs pro-Walker.3. Look at the assessment records on the city website to find value of

home.4. Gather data from the 2010 Eau Claire County census tracts.5. Find homeowner occupation in the 2010 city directory.6. Create choropleth maps in ArcMap to locate patterns.

Data Sources

Polk City Directory of Chippewa Valley, WI 2010: Home owner’s occupation. (03 June 2012)

Eau Claire City Assessment Records: Value of homes. (03 June 2012)

U.S. Census Bureau: Median household incomes for census tracts in Eau Claire County. (03 June 2012)

Garmin Etrex GPS: Collect waypoints of the political signs around Eau Claire, WI. (03 June 2012)

The Huffington Post: Choropleth and proportional symbol map to illustrate voter preference for Wisconsin counties. (05 June 2012)

Candidate Comparison

http://www.forbes.com/sites/frankminiter/2012/06/04/what-you-dont-know-about-scott-walker-and-tom-barrett/3/

TOM BARRETTDEMOCRAT

Supports collective bargaining for public unions.

Reverse Governor Walker’s reforms on collective bargaining and public employee contributions.

Proposes increased taxes on the wealthy to balance the state budget.

SCOTT WALKERREPUBLICAN

Eliminated collective bargaining for public unions.

Reformed public employee’s contributions to their pensions and benefit plans to help balance the budget.

Provided tax breaks for the wealthy to stimulate the state’s economy.

Study Area

Tom Barrett

Scott Walker

Yard Signs Third Ward

Putnam

* The Third Ward consisted of almost exclusively Tom Barrett signs while Scott Walker signs were slightly more present in Putnam which is why the two areas were chosen.

The Third Ward

Many of the homes were built in the late 19th century and early 20th century and are home to a number of school faculty members. Median household income in tract 17 is $48,850 and median owned home value is $184,500.

• Large majority for Tom Barrett.

Putnam Neighborhoods Many of the homes were built post-WWII and are occupied by a mix of retirees and a working middle class. Median household income in tract 8.01 is $64,320 while the median owned home value is $150,900. Median household income in tract 8.02 is $67,037 and the median owned home value is $191,900.

• Scott Walker has a slightly larger presence.

Putnam has a higher median household income than the Third Ward which is most likely due to the number of rentals in the Third Ward deflating the values.

Walker does not have an overly dominant presence in Putnam, which has a high median household income, as Barrett does in the Third Ward, which has a lower median household income.

Yard Signs and Median Household Income

GPS Points taken by Joel AlbrechtBing Maps & ArcMap

US Census Bureau04/06/2012

Eau Claire County Census Tracts and Median Household Income

17

8.01

8.02

9

7

12 11.01

Yard Signs and Median Owned Home Values

GPS Points taken by Joel Albrecht

Bing Maps & ArcMapUS Census Bureau

04/06/2012

The homes in the Third Ward have a higher median price tag than those in tract 8.01 of Putnam, even though the Third Ward has a lower median household income.

Walker garnishes support from areas which have lower and higher owned home values than the Third Ward.

Eau Claire County Census Tracts and Median Owned Home Values

17

8.01

8.02

1211.01

7

9

Homes with Barrett Signs

Homes with Walker Signs

Median $165,850 $140,000

Mean $171,630 $148,107

Range $170,700 $133,100

Overall, the properties with Barrett signs surveyed (Third Ward) represent higher values than the properties with Walker signs surveyed (Putnam).

This is more specific than looking at the census tracts, because now, the Third Ward displays quite significantly larger home values than Putnam. So, even though Walker was getting slightly more support in tract 8.02, which had a higher median owned home value than the Third Ward, the median value of the surveyed homes is much lower. The homes in the Third Ward, which overwhelmingly support Barrett, demonstrate support from some of the more expensive homes.

Campaign Signs and Assessed Values of Homes

Yard Signs

Occupation and Candidate Preference

There was insufficient data in the 2010 City Directory to determine much of a correlation between occupation and voter preference. • Only 12 out of 30 occupations could be found for those with a Walker sign.• Only 11 out of 30 occupations could be found for those with a Barrett sign. If this pattern would have held true for the rest of the data, Barrett would get majority support from teachers and government employees while Walker would get majority of support from retirees and blue collar workers which makes sense based on their policies.

How Wisconsin Voted, by County

Red indicates Walker majority and blue indicates Barrett majority. The proportional symbol map shows the margin of victory in each county. Scott Walker won in Eau Claire County by a very small margin.http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/wisconsin-recall-results#margin

Eau Claire County Eau Claire

County

Results

1. The Third Ward is predominantly more liberal and outspoken than the Putnam area as is evident by the tight clustering of Barrett signs and absence of Walker signs. This political segregation was not strongly correlated with the three variables. With more data points and complete list of occupations, one might expect to see a better correlation of a variable that is more characteristic of the Third Ward or Putnam.

2. Putnam had slightly more Walker signs than Barrett signs but did not demonstrate a dominate political party.

3. Census Block data would be more useful than Census Tract data to further mitigate certain areas, and uncover more specific patterns. Tract data included areas where data points were not taken and led to dilution of the data.

4. Putnam better represents how Eau Claire County voted based on Walker’s narrow victory in the county and the slightly greater presence of Walker signs in Putnam.

BibliographyU.S. Census Bureau. AmericanFactFinder2. 2010 U.S. Census Data. Web. http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml (03 June 2012)

City of Eau Claire. Online Property Assessment Database. 2012 Assessment Data. Web. http://bis-net.net/cityofeauclaire/search.cfm (03 June 2012)

Polk City Directory 2010. Chippewa Valley, Wisconsin. infoGroup Company. (03 June 2012)

Miniter, Frank. What You Don’t Know About Scott Walker And Tom Barrett. Forbes. 04 June 2012. Web. http://www.forbes.com/sites/frankminiter/2012/06/04/what-you-dont-know-about-scott-walker-and-tom-barrett/ (04 June 2012)

HuffPost Politics. Results Map. Huffington Post. 05 June 2012. Web. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/wisconsin-recall-results#margin (05 June 2012)