wishing you a merry christmas and a happy new year, from all at … · 2019-04-11 · consider...

Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year,

from all at Leabold.

December 2018 Newsletter

Leabold Financial Management Limited registered in England and Wales, Company Registration Number 05173817 A wholly owned subsidiary of Leabold Financial Management Holdings Limited, registered in England and Wales, Company Registration Number 8296996

Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority

Page 3

An article from Richard Streeter regarding

the ‘2018 Budget’.

Page 4

An article from Ben Tansley regarding ‘The

sandpile study’.

Page 5

A recipe for Christmas Pudding from

Pauline Morris

Page 6

What is happening in Leabold?

IN THIS ISSUE



Article by Richard Streeter - Financial Adviser

In order to avoid any Halloween associations the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, announced ‘The Budget’ two days earlier, being the 29th October. It is worth noting however that this budget is subject to revision pending the outcome of any ‘Brexit’ deal. Perhaps due to this uncertainty, very few changes were announced, with for example, beer, cider and spirits duty being frozen and fuel duty also being frozen for the ninth year in a row. We have concentrated on summarising the changes applicable to the key areas that may affect you being taxation, pensions, savings and investments.

Personal taxation and wages.

The personal allowance threshold, the rate at which people start paying income tax at 20%, is to rise from £11,850 to £12,500 in April – this is a year earlier than planned.

The higher rate income tax threshold, the point at which people start paying tax at 40%, is to rise from £46,350 to £50,000 in April.

After that, the two rates will rise in line with inflation.

National Living Wage increasing by 4.9%, from £7.83 to £8.21 an hour, from April 2019.

Pensions. Very few changes announced here though the lifetime allowance, being the maximum that can be saved in a pension fund before taxes apply, will increase from £1,030,000 to £1,055,000 for 2019/20. The Department for Work and Pensions will consult next year on the function of the pensions charge cap applicable to Auto Enrolment schemes to ensure that it does not restrict the use of performance fees within default pension schemes, while also seeking to maintain member protections. ISAs The adult ISA annual subscription limit for 2019-20 will remain unchanged at £20,000. The lifetime ISA annual subscription limit for 2019-20 will remain unchanged at £4,000. The junior ISA annual subscription limit for 2019-20 will however be uprated in line with Consumer Prices Index to £4,368. We do, as always, remain on hand to ensure that you make the most of any opportunities available and would be delighted to discuss any such matters with you at your convenience.

The 2018 Budget

https://unsplash.com/photos/ixqauhAL34o



Article by Ben Tansley - Paraplanner

Have you ever sat with a sand timer, watching the sandpile get bigger and bigger? I certainly haven’t.

Though certainly not everyone’s idea of fun, three scientists working in the Physics Department at the Brookhaven National Laboratory decided it might be, and were intrigued by what happens to a sandpile as it grows. Their exploration led to conclusions possibly applicable to something much more significant: stock market crashes.

In 1987, the ‘sandpile study’ was published by Per Bak, Chao Tang and Kurt Wiesenfeld, As luck would have it, it came just a few months before October’s market crash, the largest one-day drop in history. The paper uses a branch of mathematics known as ‘Complexity Theory’, which studies how systems can organize themselves into unexpected behaviours arising from the interaction of its smallest and seemingly independent components.

The conclusion was grain and simple: sandpile avalanches cannot be predicted. As a sandpile grows, all kinds of avalanches take place; from a few grains rolling down to a large avalanche which fundamentally changes the sandpile structure. The paper also identified that large avalanches do not appear unique: they were simply less frequent, comparatively larger versions of smaller avalanches. One might

argue that the variation of these avalanches bears a remarkable similarity to the variation in negative stock market returns, which are just as unpredictable.

Whether you believe this concept is correct is down to you, but it certainly remains a critical consideration. It would fundamentally change your approach to investing. Either you sit on the side that opinion-based research leads to investment success, or, if markets are truly unpredictable, then it is a total waste to pay a fund manager for their considerations as their success will be nothing but luck.

Many investors today remain engrossed in the forecasts of financial analysts, including us. Seems better than consulting oracles, crystal balls and tea leaves, right? However, we may all be guilty of searching for the most captivating storylines about the unknowable future. In reality, no amount of sandpile research can provide a usable estimate as to the size and location of the next major avalanche.

Stock market behaviour’s only certainty is uncertainty. That’s why we take an active role in trying to manage this risk and focus our investments towards the risk they carry, not towards the highest potential return. You may have already noticed this in the “Accepting the required level of risk” part of our Advice Reports.

For those of you interested in further reading,

consider ‘Ubiquity – Why Catastrophes

Happen’ by Mark Buchanan. The book delves

into the unpredictability of complex natural

and human phenomena and discusses the

‘fingers of instability’ that run through

sandpiles: a key thought stimulant for financial

market consideration.

The ‘sandpile’ study

Budget



Christmas pudding

Article by Pauline Morris – Paraplanner

As this is a Christmas edition, I would like to give you my recipe for Christmas pudding.

My family love these as I make them to be only one meal big, so they get to enjoy them over a period of a couple of months, they will keep until about Easter time if they are cold when wrapped up and no air gets to them.

This year the quantity given has provided me with 11 puddings, 10 smaller ones feeds 2-3 people and a larger 1 pint one for Christmas day 5-6 people. I assure you none will go to waste.

I’m old school and this is an old recipe that I’ve used for years, so the quantities are given in lb and ounces. The secret of the recipe is to put all the fruit and brandy into a bowl and let it stand overnight, stirring occasionally the fruit then soaks up the brandy and makes it plump and the brandy is more evenly distributed.

As long as you have the total quantity of fruit it

doesn’t really matter if they are divided as

given. The following quantity will make 4½

pints of mixture. (Most pudding bowls have the

quantity they hold on the bottom).

½ lb currants 1lb sultanas 1lb of stoned raisins ½Ib mixed peel At Least 6 tablespoons brandy 6oz of either chopped or ground

almonds

½ lb cooking or eating apples peel, core and finely chop (eating apples tend to make a slightly sweeter pudding)

The grated rind and juice of 1 lemon and 1 orange

Put all of the above in a bowl, mix well, cover and allow to stand overnight stirring occasionally.

Next day add all the dry ingredients: ¾lb fresh breadcrumbs ¾lb plain flour ¾ teaspoon, ground ginger, ground

nutmeg and ground cinnamon ¾ lb shredded suet ½ lb caster sugar ½ lb soft brown sugar

Mix together either with a wooden spoon or a hand blender then add 3 eggs and about ¼ pint milk. Mix so that you get a soft dropping consistency, adding more milk if necessary, (Don’t make it too runny).

Put into pudding basins leaving some room for the mixture to rise a little, smooth down the top of the pudding and cover with greaseproof paper and foil, tie with string and then you can boil, steam or slow cook them, I usually do a bit of each. The only difference is the colour I don’t think there is any difference in the taste.

A 1 pint pudding should be cooked for 2 hours, smaller or larger sizes need to have the cooking time adjusted accordingly. (Slow cooker I have it on overnight 12 hours on low, once it has heated up). Once cooked leave to cool and remove from the bowl to become completely cold. Then rewrap in greaseproof paper and foil to keep. I usually put them back in the bowls they were cooked for ease of storage. Keep for at least 2 – 3 weeks before eating so they can mature.

When you want to eat them you can either boil them again or if you remove the foil they can be microwaved for about 2 mins, for the smaller pudding.

Serve with Cream, Custard or Brandy butter.



What’s been happening at Leabold?

Customer Feedback Forms We have received 8 completed forms back during the July to September Quarter.

This meant that we were able to send a donation of £40 to LATCH Welsh Children’s Cancer Charity,

which they will be able to put to very good use supporting Children with Cancer and their families at

the Children’s Hospital for Wales. The services and support they provide are amazing, if you are

interested in learning more about our chosen charity please visit their website: www.latchwales.org

Quarterly Prize Draw On receipt of the completed Feedback Forms, clients are entered into our quarterly Prize Draw and

the winner of the July - September 2018 quarter was drawn at random on 4th October.

Congratulations to Mr Figueirido!!

We hope you enjoy spending your £30 Love2Shop vouchers and thank you for your continued

support.

Thank you to everyone who took the time to complete and return their form, and if you haven’t yet

received a feedback form, we will be issuing upon completion of any new transaction.

New Beginnings Congratulations to Leanne and family on the birth of her 3rd child. Baby Carson was born on the 7th

November 2018 at 3:15pm, he was born one day before his due date and weighed 8lb 1. Both mum

and baby are doing well.

We would also like to congratulate Robyn, who works in our

Client Support Department and her partner Lewis as they

are expecting their 1st child in June 2019, also Tony and

Debbie as this will be their first grandchild.

http://www.latchwales.org/

http://www.latchwales.org/



Christmas Festivities This year’s office Christmas lunch took place at the Railway Inn on Friday 14th December, where we

will also supported Christmas Jumper day. The meal was thoroughly enjoyed by all.

Kids Cancer Charity The charity provides a range of services all aimed to improve the quality of life for children with cancer and their families including Compassionate Care Breaks UK, Play Therapy, family bereavement support and the American and French ‘Dream Experience’. If you would like more information on this charity please visit their website – www.kidscancercharity.org

This year we raffled a Kids Cancer Charity Teddy Bear (which was sought after by Mr Derek Lavington),

a large Christmas hamper, wine, chocolates and a small homemade Christmas hamper kindly donated

by Pauline Morris. We were delighted to raise a total of £110 for the charity.

We hope you found this newsletter of interest, however should you wish to be removed from our

mailing list please email [email protected].

Kind Regards

The Marketing Team

wishing you a merry christmas and a happy new year, from all at … · 2019-04-11 · consider...

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