wis_pmab_us trade 09 2007

Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc.

Successfully Navigating the Global Market Place:Successfully Navigating the Global Market Place:

“Effectively Identifying Market Opportunities”

Mark Killion, CFA

Managing DirectorWorld Industry Service

Global Insight

September, 2007

1Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc.

Agenda

� Use Globally Harmonized Industry Benchmarks To Illuminate Market Sizing

� World Industry Service (WIS)

� Rank and Compare Industry Sales and Growth

� Profile of Exports and Trade

� Impacts on Industries from Trade

For More Information see: www.Globalinsight.com/WIS


WIS World (72 Economies)[Share in World Output - Nominal US$]

� Asia Pacific (17) [26%]

� NAFTA (3) [34%]

� Latin America (13) [4%]

� Europe (25) [33%]

� West Europe (17) [29%]

� East Europe & CIS (8) [4%]

� Middle East & Africa (14) [ 3%]

WIS Includes Industry Benchmarks for 72 Countries

Note: Number of member Countries in ( )

Country & Regional Shares in [ ]

Asia Pacific (17 Economies)[Share in Asia Pacific]

� OECD Asia [56%] – Japan, S. Korea,

Australia, New Zealand

� Greater China [27%] – China, Hong

Kong, Taiwan

� ASEAN 6 [8%] – Indonesia, Malaysia,

Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, VietNam

� South Asia [9%] – India, Pakistan, Sri

Lanka, Bangladesh

BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa [12%]


Product Sectors

1. Agriculture – Farm, Forest & Fishing

2. Mining – Energy, Metals & Minerals

3. Manufacturing – Food, Beverages, Textiles,

Wood, Paper, Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Metals, Minerals, Industrial Machinery, Computers, Electronics, Autos, Shipping, Aircraft, Railroad, Scientific, Medical

4. Utilities – Power and Water

5. Construction – Commercial and Residential

Services Sectors6. Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants, Hotels

7. Transportation, Storage, Communications

8. Finance, Insurance, Leasing, Real Estate, Computer Services, R&D, Business Services

9. Public Administration, Defense, Health Care, Education, Recreation

WIS Includes 71 Industries, Grouped into 9 “ISIC” Categories

Finance

24%

Retail,

Wholesale

14%Mining

4%

Manufact-

uring

19%

Social &

Personel

Services

20%

Transport,

Storage,

Commun-

ication

Services

7%

Agriculture

3%

Construct-

ion

6%

Utility

3%

Sector Shares of World GDP(US$45 Trillion)


Global Output (Value Added) of Goods & Services

Service Sector Output Dominates Global Economy

Global Output of Goods and Service Sectors

OECD -

Services

60%

OECD - Goods

18%

Emerg. Mkts -

Goods

10%

Emerg. Mkts -

Services

12%


Exports Are Typically More Volatile than Overall GDP(Percent Growth Rates)

US and World Growth is Shaped By Trade Patterns

Growth in Exports and GDP, United States

-7%

-2%

3%

8%

13%

18%

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Annual Growth

Real GDP Real Exports Nominal Exports ($)

Growth in Exports and GDP, World

-7%

-2%

3%

8%

13%

18%

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Annual Gro

wth

Real GDP Real Exports Nominal Exports ($)


Annual Percent Growth of Sector Real Value Added

-7

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Annual Gro

wth (%)

Construction & Util. Manufacturing Services

Sector Composition of Macro Economic Growth

WorldUnited States

-7

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Annual Gro

wth (%)

Construction & Util. Manufacturing Services


-15

-5

5

15

25

35

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Electrical Machinery

Computers & Electronics

Aircraft

“Higher” Tech “Lower” Tech

Outlook for Key Manufacturing Sectors in the U.S.(% Growth in Inflation Adjusted Sector Sales)

Source: GII World Industry ServiceSource: GII World Industry Service

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Basic Industrial Chemicals

Nonelectrical Machinery

Food, Beverages & Tobacco


-5

0

5

10

15

20

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Wholesale & Retail

Communications

Transport & Storage

Transport, Trade and Communications Financial and Business Services

Outlook for Key Services Sectors in the U.S.(% Growth in Inflation Adjusted Sector Sales)

Source: GII World Industry ServiceSource: GII World Industry Service

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Computer Software & Services

Financial Institutions

Business Services


Which Industries Grew the Fastest in “Real” Terms?(Industry Ranking of 2003-2007 Growth Rates in Inflation Adjusted Value Added)

910251022187.051.29. Fabricated Metal excl. Mach. & Equip.

1612201721136.614.510. Communications

4646444747295.841.411. Commercial Research & Development

BRICSEUAsia

PacificEmerg. Markets

OECD x US

World

22

13

6

11

37

5

9

1

2

26

19

41

9

31

48

40

1

4

33

29

2

12

10

18

40

1

5

4.96

7.44

7.94

8.18

8.53

9.58

11.48

12.24

20.63

Growth 2003-07

(%)

20

14

1

11

7

5

9

26

2

23

16

3

9

7

12

20

2

1

Ranking in Other Regions/Countries

120.16. Electrical Industrial Machinery

345.513. Retail Trade (Excl. Automotive & Gasoline)

181.98. Computer & Related Services

450.17. Metal & Wood Working Machine Tools

350.55. Aircraft & Spacecraft

480.14. Agricultural Machinery

420.23. Special Industry Machinery

10.82. Computers & Office Equipment

44.71. Communications Equipment incl. Semiconductors

Share in GDP (%)

Ranking in U.S.

Top Twelve Real Growth PerformersBy Growth Rate in Value Added (Real)


Which Industries Grew the Fastest in “Nominal” Terms?(Industry Ranking of 2003-2007 Growth Rates in US$)

4850434747439.591.49. Commercial Research & Development

9396359.110.310. Basic Industrial Chemicals

61326916198.561.211. Fabricated Metal excl. Mach. & Equip.

BRICSEUAsia


OECD x US

World

33

8

7

46

4

20

11

2

1

18

10

48

27

39

49

16

3

1

33

13

12

14

20

45

40

3

1

8.01

9.62

9.99

11.90

12.70

13.98

15.10

16.01

28.00

Growth 2003-07 (%)

30

11

2

17

7

42

13

6

1

29

8

9

15

11

34

14

2

1


400.56. Aircraft & Aerospace

231.912. Computer & Related Services

140.38. Cement & Construction Material



494.74. Communications Equipment inc. Semiconductors


30.32. Iron & Steel

10.21. Aluminum & Other Non-Ferrous Metals

Share in GDP (%)

Ranking in U.S.

Top Twelve Real Nominal PerformersBy Growth Rate in Value Added (Nominal US$)


Which Industries Were the Weakest in “Real” Terms?(Industry Ranking of 2000-2006 Growth Rates in Inflation Adjusted Value Added)

221723192191.102.39. Retail Trade: Automotive & Gasoline

1922113821.290.810. Recreational & Cultural Services

2624112820131.363.411. Construction

BRICSEUAsia


OECD x US

World

36

6

9

25

26

2

11

21

0

17

4

36

27

45

47

12

30

35

22

14

44

8

47

42

4

29

35

1.46

0.72

0.66

0.61

0.28

0.10

-1.30

-1.89

-2.71

Growth 2003-07

(%)

32

35

48

13

43

2

15

39

0

15

8

44

4

45

40

1

12

10


330.66. Wood Products & Furniture

270.112. Paints, Varnishes & Lacquers

50.28. Metals Mining

90.17. Shipbuilding & Repairing

450.15. Rubber Products

470.04. Electrical Appliances & Housewares

130.93. Renting & Leasing of Machinery & Equipment

291.22. Motor Vehicles & Parts

390.41. Textiles, Apparel & Leather

Share in GDP (%)

Ranking in U.S.

Weakest Twelve Real Growth PerformersBy Growth Rate in Value Added (Real)


Share of Exports in GDP in the Emerging Markets

Accelerated in 2000-06(Inflation Adjusted Exports of Goods & Services as Share of GDP)

Accelerated Export Growth in Emerging Markets in the Recent Past

Trade as Share of GDP

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Percent(Based on Real US$ term

s)

World OECD

Emerging Markets United States


Goods and Services Exports in OECD and Emerging Markets

Trade in Goods Dominates Trade in Services

Exports of Goods & Services in Developed Countries

and Emerging Markets

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,0001

98

0

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

Mil. Nominal US$

OECD - Goods Emerging Markets - Goods

OECD - Serv. Emerging Markets - Serv.


Growth in Exports Universally Exceed GDP Growth: Only Modestly in OECD but Substantially in Emerging Markets

Annual Growth in GDP and Exports of Goods &

Services

OECD

Emerging Markets

W. Europe

Asia Pacific

E. Europe & CIS

MiddleEast

Latin America

United States

Japan

China

India

Russia

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

GDP

Exports

Growth (2003-06)

Adjusted for Inflation

Annual Growth in GDP and Exports of Goods & Services

Growth (Adjusted for Inflation)

% Growth % Growth ∆ (in Growth Rate)

GDP Exports GDP Exports GDP Export

(2003-06) (2000-03)

OECD 2.90 7.74 1.46 1.63 1.44 6.11

Emerging Markets 7.20 13.64 4.27 8.13 2.93 5.51

W. Europe 2.36 6.80 1.33 2.18 1.03 4.61

Asia Pacific 4.98 13.95 3.06 7.54 1.92 6.40

E. Europe & CIS 6.24 10.60 4.76 8.07 1.48 2.53

MiddleEast 5.55 8.84 2.87 4.43 2.69 4.41

Latin America 5.69 9.76 0.84 4.46 4.86 5.30

United States 3.48 8.28 1.62 -2.18 1.86 10.47

Japan 2.27 10.16 0.63 2.98 1.64 7.18

China 10.41 22.90 9.13 21.61 1.28 1.29

India 8.97 13.82 5.76 10.85 3.21 2.97

Russia 6.76 8.38 5.72 8.94 1.04 -0.57


U.S. Merchandise Trade in 2006: Largest Deficit in Asia

U.S. Trade in Goods, by Region. 2006

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ch

ina

& H

K

OE

CD

As

ia

Oth

er

As

ia

Ca

na

da

EU

- B

ig 3

Afr

ica

Me

xic

o

Re

st

of

EU

(12

)

La

tin

Am

.

(ex

c.

Me

x.)

M.E

as

t

E.

Eu

rop

e &

CIS

Oth

er

W.

Eu

rop

e

Bil US$

Exports Imports

Exports $ 1,032 Bil.Imports $ 1,873 Bil.

Net : $ -841 Bil.


U.S. Merchandise Trade in 2006: Largest Deficit in Mining, Motor Vehicles & Textiles

U.S. Trade by Sector. 2006

0

50

100

150

200

250

300Mining and Q

uarrying

Motor Vehicles &

Parts

Textiles & A

pparel

Office & C

omputing Equip.

Communication Equip.

Primary M

etals

Petroleum Refineries

Wood &

Furniture

Drugs &

Medicines

Food & B

everages

Fabricated M

etal Pro

ducts

Specialty Chemicals

Electric Indust. M

achinery

Paper and Printing

Industrial Chemicals

Engines and Turbines

Special Industr. Machinery

Pro

fessional & Scientific Equip.

Agriculture

Aircraft

Bil U

S$

Exports Imports


19181825141613.783.410. Special Industry Machinery


BRICSEUAsia


OECD x US

World

6

4

7

31

2

22

5

20

1

9

6

4

19

18

8

13

1

28

3

5

6

8

14

22

9

23

3

26

1

4

11.11

14.37

14.67

14.82

14.86

15.83

17.53

18.38

26.24

29.11

Growth 2003-07

(%)

6

7

8

31

2

25

5

18

1

3

6

7

8

28

5

20

2

18

1

3



42.712. Electrical Industrial Machinery

93.09. Drugs & Medicines

152.88. Synthetic Resins

130.27. Railroad Equipment


11.24. Iron & Steel




Share in Total Exports

(%)

Ranking in United States

Top Twelve Export PerformersBy Growth Rate in Exports (Nominal US$)

Which Industries Had the Fastest “Nominal” Exports Growth?(Industry Ranking of 2003-2007 Growth Rates in Nominal US$ Exports)


259272011138.680.810. Wood Products & Furniture

1024211723209.471.811. Plastic Products

BRICSEUAsia


OECD x US

World

18

5

3

11

17

13

15

8

7

6

23

2

1

15

11

10

9

8

3

5

22

1

2

19

11

7

13

8

3

17

9.94

8.64

7.59

7.41

7.37

7.36

6.27

5.61

5.57

3.07

Growth 2003-07

(%)

16

5

2

12

20

13

8

10

9

6

22

2

1

17

18

8

10

7

5

9


50.56. Fertilizers & Pesticides




248.77. Communications Equip. incl. Semiconductors

92.35. Paper & Printing

154.84. Computers & Office Equipment

43.63. Processed Food & Tobacco

34.02. Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing


Share in Total

Exports (%)


Weakest Twelve Export PerformersBy Growth Rate in Exports (Nominal US$)

Which Industries Had the Weakest “Nominal” Exports Growth?(Industry Ranking of 2003-2007 Growth Rates in Nominal US$ Exports)


14141712121412.970.710. Rubber Products

23302529302812.400.111. Railroad Equipment

BRICSEUAsia


OECD x US

World

2

29

21

22

10

11

6

8

1

4

3

27

22

21

15

17

1

5

2

13

3

26

18

20

10

15

2

13

1

12

12.37

13.54

13.66

13.75

14.70

15.19

16.93

17.91

27.54

30.68

Growth 2003-07

(%)

3

29

18

22

11

7

5

8

1

2

4

26

19

20

10

8

2

7

1

3



122.012. Fabricated Metal excl. Mach. & Equip.

250.69. Cement & Construction Material



210.85. Synthetic Resins


93.23. Drugs & Medicines


301.91. Iron & Steel

Share in Total

Imports (%)


Top Twelve Import PerformersBy Growth Rate in Imports (Nominal US$)

Which Industries Had the Fastest “Nominal” Imports Growth?(Industry Ranking of 2003-2007 Growth Rates in Nominal US$ Imports)



191681817119.462.511. Wood Products & Furniture

BRICSEUAsia


OECD x US

World

6

4

15

9

14

1

12

5

29

7

4

1

21

7

9

2

6

8

22

25

4

1

24

5

10

2

9

3

26

23

9.49

8.38

8.37

7.56

6.50

6.18

6.12

5.20

2.54

1.20

Growth 2003-07

(%)

6

4

13

9

11

1

12

5

28

8

5

2

14

7

10

1

8

3

27

9


51.46. Paper & Printing

61.612. Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing


252.78. Scientific & Measuring Equipment

123.27. Processed Food & Tobacco



810.43. Motor Vehicles & Parts



Share in Total

Imports (%)


Weakest Twelve Import PerformersBy Growth Rate in Imports (Nominal US$)

Which Industries Had the Weakest “Nominal” Imports Growth?(Industry Ranking of 2003-2007 Growth Rates in Nominal US$ Imports)


Service Sector Trade Credits & Debits

Trade in Services: United States

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Transportation

Travel Services

Communication

Construction

Insurance

Financial

IT & C

omputing

Licences &

Royalties

Oth. Business Serv.

Cultural & R

ecreation

Govern

ment

Bil. US$

Exports Imports

Net Trade in Services by Sector, U.S. & EU 15

2005

Overall Net

(US); 62.2

Overall Net (EU

15), 83.5

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

TransportationInsurance

Government IT & ComputingCommunication

ConstructionCultural & Recreational

FinancialOther Business Services

Travel ServicesLicences & Royalties

Overall Net (US)

Travel ServicesLicences & Royalties

Cultural & RecreationalInsurance

Government Communication

ConstructionTransportation

Other Business ServicesIT & Computing

Financial

Overall Net (EU 15)

Bil. US$


Growth in Service Sector Trade: U.S. versus EU-15

Annual Export Growth in Services, U.S. & EU 15

2002-05

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Transportation

Travel Services

Communication

Construction

Insurance

Financial

IT & Computing

Licences & Royalties

Oth. Business Serv.

Cultural & Recreation

All Services (U.S.)

Transportation

Travel Services

Communication

Construction

Insurance

Financial

IT & Computing


Oth. Business Serv.


All Services (EU-15)

Bil. US$

EU: 16.2%

U.S.: 9.3%

Annual Import Growth in Services, U.S. & EU 15

2002-05

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Transportation

Travel Services

Communication

Construction

Insurance

Financial

IT & Computing


Oth. Business Serv.


All Services (U.S.)

Transportation

Travel Services

Communication

Construction

Insurance

Financial

IT & Computing


Oth. Business Serv.


All Services (EU-15)

Bil. US$

EU: 14.6%

U.S.: 10.8%


“Rest of World” (Ex. U.S.) Trade Surplus or Deficit in Manufacturing Industries, as Share of Their Own Domestic Consumption

Ratio of ROW Net Imports as Share of Consumption

En

gin

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& T

urb

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30.0%

Ra

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(N

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Imp

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om

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)


Identifying Outlook Prospects Where U.S. has Trade Surplus with

Rest of the World

Large Medium Small

Fast

Aircraft & Spacecraft [13.4%] Railroad Equipment [0.2%]

Medium

Industrial Chemicals [2.9%]

Aluminum & Non-Ferrous Metals [1.0%]

Professional & Scientific

Equipment [8.3%]Engines & Turbines [19.7%]

Slow

Agriculture [0.4%] Metals Mining [8.3%]Paints & Lacquers [0.5%]

Agricultural Machinery [0.4%]

Industries Where U.S. has net Export Surplus with Rest of the World

Sector Size

Real Gro

wth (2003-'07)


Identifying Outlook Prospects Where Rest of the World Has Trade Surplus against the United States

Large Medium Small

Fast Communication Equipment [-6.1%]

Electrical Machinery [-4.6%]

Nonelectrical Machinery [-0.8%]

Office & Computing Machinery [-0.8%]

Appliances & Houseware [-6.6%]

Electrical Apparatus [-6.1%]

Pottery, Ceramics & Earthenware [-3.6%]

Rubber Products [-3.6%]

Metal & Woodworking Machinery [-0.3%]

Medium Fabricated Metal Products [-3.0%]

Iron and Steel [-2.4%]

Plastic Products [-1.3%]

Textiles [-4.9%]

Drugs and Medicines [-1.1%]

Ship Building & Repairs[-7.7%]

Soap & Cleaning Products [-2.4%]

Leather Products [-0.5%]

Slow

Motor Vehicles & Parts [-8.3%]

Paper & Products [-1.6%]

Electrical Industrail Machinery [-1.6%]

Petroleum Refineries [-1.3%]

Printing & Publishing [0.0%]

Furniture & Fixtures [-5.7%]

Wood Products [-3.6%]

Special Industrial Machinery [-2.2%]

Motorcycles & Bicycles [-3.0%]

Glass & Products [-2.0%]

Industries Where Rest of the World has net Exports to the U.S.

Sector Size

Real Growth (2003-'07)


Thank you!Thank you!

Mark Killion, CFAManaging Director

Prem Premakumar, Ph. D.Principal/Senior Economist

World Industry ServicesGlobal Insight, Inc.Global Insight, Inc.

Phone:610 490 2547 610 490 2525

email: [email protected] [email protected]

wis_pmab_us trade 09 2007

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