with support from

Knocking at the College Door

Lunch with The Lawlor GroupFebruary 9, 2013 ~ Chicago, IL

Projections of High School Graduates

Background

• Eighth edition of Knocking at the College Door going back to 1979

• Projections of high school graduates by state and race/ethnicity, including nonpublic graduates

• Actual data through 2008-09; projections spanning 2009-10 through 2027-28

• Audience• Federal, state, and local policymakers• State educational agencies and school districts• Institutions: colleges and universities, public and private

schools• Media• Researchers• Others

Caveat Emptor

• Assumed existing patterns continue indefinitely

• Policy changes not explicitly modeled• Changes in accountability policies (i.e., high-stakes tests)• Variations in funding levels that affect progression

• Underlying data• Reflect the 2008 recession but not all years of continued

economic slump• May reflect spurious impacts resulting from the federal

race/ethnicity data collection and reporting changes

• Focus is on the traditional pipeline exclusively

Projections of Postsecondary Enrollmentof Adults 25 and Older

• Adult enrollment is projected to grow by 22 percent between Fall 2010 and Fall 2021.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2021, Table 21.

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

7,000,000.0

7,500,000.0

8,000,000.0

8,500,000.0

9,000,000.0

9,500,000.0

10,000,000.0

10,500,000.0

11,000,000.0

Admissions Hysteria!!!!!!

“There are few experiences short of death, disease, injury or divorce that have as much potential for trauma for American families as the college admissions process. The first great rite of passage for young humans once was killing a wild animal. That was replaced by getting married, or getting a job. These days it is getting into college.” (Jay Mathews, washingtonpost.com, 5.23.2010)

“The [admissions] process is far too important to the nation to be left solely in the hands of a few college administrators who are reluctant to explain their selections standards or model.” (Andy Pettis, editorial in The Washington Post, 5.16.2010)

The Principal Themes

1.Changes in overall production

2.Continuing rapid diversification along racial/ethnic lines

Both with substantial geographic variation

U.S. Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates, 1996-97 to 2027-28

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

2018

-19

2019

-20

2020

-21

2021

-22

2022

-23

2023

-24

2024

-25

2025

-26

2026

-27

2027

-28

2,200,000.0

2,400,000.0

2,600,000.0

2,800,000.0

3,000,000.0

3,200,000.0

3,400,000.0

3,600,000.0

Mill

ions Peaked in 2010-11 at

3.4 million following 17 straight years of growth averaging

2.3% annually

U.S. Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates by Region, 2003-04 to 2027-28

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

2018

-19

2019

-20

2020

-21

2021

-22

2022

-23

2023

-24

2024

-25

2025

-26

2026

-27

2027

-28

400,000.0

500,000.0

600,000.0

700,000.0

800,000.0

900,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,100,000.0

1,200,000.0

1,300,000.0

1,400,000.0

South

West

Northeast

Midwest

Contributions to the Nation’s Change in Total High School Graduates (Relative to 2008-09), by Region

2014-15(6-yr Chg.)

2019-20(11-yr Chg.)

2024-25(16-yr. Chg)

-150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

West Midwest Northeast South

Percent Change Between 2008-09 and 2019-20 in Total High School

Graduates, by State

ME

MI

DC

RI

NHVT

-15%

or l

ess

WI

KY

AK

MT

CA

IA

MN

IL

HI

OH

MO

FL

MDPA CT

MA

NJ

-5 to

-15

IN

OR

AZ

ND

VA

SCTN

DE

MS

WV

-5 to

0

WA

ARNM

SD

NE

NC

NY

AL GA 0 to

5

WY

NV

ID

OK

KS

LA5

to 1

5

UTCO

TX15

% o

r mor

e

Decline Growth

U.S. Nonpublic High School Graduates, 1996-97 to 2008-09 (Estimated); 2009-10 to 2027-28 (Projected)

19

91

99

19

91

99

20

02

00

20

02

00

20

02

00

20

02

00

20

02

00

20

12

01

20

12

01

20

12

01

20

12

01

20

12

01

20

22

02

20

22

02

20

22

02

20

22

02190,000

205,000

220,000

235,000

250,000

265,000

280,000

295,000

310,000

325,000

340,000

U.S. Public High School Graduates by Race/ Ethnicity, 2008-09 (Actual);

2009-10 to 2019-20

200200

201201

201201

201201

201201

201201

202202

202202

202202

202202

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-Hispanic Hispanic White non-Hispanic

Cumulative Percent Projected Change in U.S. Public High School Graduates Relative to 2008-09, by Race/Ethnicity

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

-5%

2%

18%

13%

30%

58%

-9% -9%-2%

21%

41%

68%

-10% -12%-13%

American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black, non-Hispanic Hispanic

White, non-Hispanic

Cumulative Change in Percentage Points in non-White non-Hispanic Share of Public High School

Graduates, by Region

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

2018

-19

2019

-20

2020

-21

2021

-22

2022

-23

2023

-24

2024

-25

2025

-26

2026

-27

2027

-28

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

6.5%

4.3%

6.9%

8.7%

West Midwest Northeast South

Proportion of Minority Public High School Graduates, 2019-20 (Projected)

AK

WAMT

UT

WY

CO

NV

ORID

CA

WI

IA

MN

IL

MI

AR

TX

HI

OKAZ NM

ND

SD

NE

KSIN

KY

OH

SCTN

MONC

DEDC

NJ

NY

LAMS AL

FL

GA

WVVA

MDPA CT

RI

ME

MA

NHVT

≤ 10% 50% +10

or l

ess

10 to

20

20 to

30

30 to

40

40 to

50

50 o

r mor

e

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

USWY

WI

WV

WA

VA

VT

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH

ND

NCNY

NM

NJ

NH

NV

NE

MT MO

MS

MN

MI

MA

MD

ME

KY KSIA

IN

IL

ID

HI

GA

FL

DECT

CO

CA

ARAZ

AK

AL

Percent Change in Total Production, 2009-2020

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Po

int

Ch

an

ge

in

No

n-W

hit

e

Sh

are

of

Pu

blic

HS

Gs,

20

09

-20

20

Total Production vs. Diversification of Projected Public High School Graduates by 2020

Slowing production,Rapid diversification

Slowing production,Incremental diversification

Increasing production,Rapid diversification

Increasing production,Incremental diversification

Some Recent Phenomena Impacting the Projections

• Fertility rates declining across the board

• Slowing immigration among Latinos (Pew, Census Bureau)

• Impacts of the recession shifting students around

All origins Hispanic White non-Hispanic Black non-Hispanic0

20

40

60

80

100

120

66.4

95.7

58.9 67.169.3

97.4

61.0 71.4

66.286.5

59.6 68.9

64.1 80.2

58.7 66.6

2004 2007 2009 2010

Notes: Fertility rates measure the number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44. Birth and fertility rates for 2001–2009 shown in this report were revised using (intercensal) population estimates based on the 2000 and 2010 census. The revised rates may differ from the rates published previously, which were based on 2000 (postcensal) population estimates.Source: National Vital Statistics Report, Volume 61, Number 1, August 2012, Tables 1 and 5.

Implications

Converging Pressures in Fulfilling Society’s Needs

• Serving a more diverse population

• Pressure to produce well-educated talent to meet workforce needs

• Ongoing fiscal challenges

Education Requirements for Workforce Participation

Graduate/Professional

Bachelor’s

Associate’s

Some College

High School

Less than High School

32

10 11 10

40

34 30 28

1917

17

12

810 12

9

19 21 23

7 10 11 10

0

20

40

60

80

100

1973 1992 2007 2018

Percent of Jobs by Level of

Education Required

Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce.Note: In 1973, some college and associate degrees were in the same category.

Differences in College Attainment (Associate & Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults – U. S. & OECD

Countries, 2009

Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2011 (via NCHEMS)

Differences in College Attainment (Associate & Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults – U.S.

and States, 2009

Source: NCHEMS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

25-34 Year-olds

Note: All differences between age groups of the same racial/ethnic group and between racial/ethnic groups are statistically beyond the 90% margins of error except for American Indians/Alaska Natives. 90% margins of error range from+/- 1% for American Indians/Alaska Natives aged 25-34 to +/- 0.1% for White non-Hispanics aged 45-54.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS). Via NCHEMS.

American Indian/

Alaska Native

Asian/Pacific Islander

Black non-Hispanic

Hispanic White non-Hispanic

Differences in College Attainment (Associate & Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults

by Race/Ethnicity – U. S., 2008-2010

1973 1978 1982 1986 1990 1992 1994 1996 1999 2004 2008250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

Average Math Scores of 12th Graders on the National Assessment of Educational Progress

(NAEP) by Race/Ethnicity

3340

2721

Black Hispanic WhiteSource: NCES, Status and Trends in the Education of Racial and Ethnic Minorities, 2007; NAEP.

2026

Percent of 18-24 Year-Olds Enrolled in Postsecondary Institutions by Race/Ethnicity

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 20080

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

11.4

8.0

12.1

18.4

Black Hispanic WhiteSource: NCES, Status and Trends in the Education of Racial and Ethnic Minorities, 2010.

Man

agem

ent,

Busin

ess, F

inan

cial O

ps

Com

pute

r, Mat

hem

atical, E

ngin

eerin

g & E

ngin

eerin

g Te

ch, A

rchi

tect

ure,

Scien

tific

Educ

ation,

Pub

lic S

ervice

Health

care

- Dia

gnos

ing,

Ass

essm

ent,

Trea

ting,

The

rapy

, Tec

hnical

Serv

ices

Sales, A

dmin

istra

tive

Supp

ort

Farm

ing,

Fish

ing,

For

estry,

Hun

ting

Cons

truc

tion,

Ext

ract

ion,

Maint

enan

ce

Prec

ision

Pro

duct

ion,

Tra

nspo

rtat

ion,

Mat

erial M

ovin

g

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

7.3

2.4

6.9

2.4

17.7 19.7

2.1

8.4

15.3

12.1

11.5

7.7

6.4

13.1

21.1

0.5 2

.9

10.0

7.1

2.2

7.3

3.3

20.4 2

3.4

1.0

4.3

16.1

5.6

1.7

5.0

1.5

18.3

19.3

4.5

9.9

19.6

12.5

4.5

10.5

4.3

11.9

24.7

1.8

7.5

12.4

American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-HispanicHispanic White non-Hispanic

Percent of Working-Age Adults (18 to 64) Employed in Each Occupational Category by Race/Ethnicity – U.S. (2005-06)

Source: NCHEMS (from U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 and 2006 American Community Survey PUMS)

Public Institutions’ Growing Dependence on Net Tuition Revenue

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

23.2%

43.1%

76.8%

56.9%

Institutions’ Discretionary Revenue, U.S., 1986-2011

Net Tuition Revenue

Educational Appropriations

State

Net Tuition Revenue Share, FY2011

Change in % Points Since

1986

Colorado 65.0% 24.9

South Dakota 57.8% 22.8

Oregon 56.4% 30.0

Montana 52.8% 35.9

North Dakota 49.6% 22.5

Arizona 46.4% 22.7

Utah 44.8% 24.5

Texas 37.5% 17.6

Washington 34.5% 12.8

Hawaii 32.4% 23.6

Idaho 31.4% 17.5

Nevada 30.5% 8.4

California 27.4% 16.6

Alaska 27.1% 16.7

New Mexico 21.9% 8.2

Wyoming 11.4% 2.0Source: SHEEO SHEF

Pressure to Devote Additional Resources to Recruitment

Applica-tions Up

Yield Down

Tepid HSG pool

Cost shifting

Enrollment

targets

Composite NAEP Reading and Math Scores for 12th Graders in 2009, by

Race/Ethnicity

Note: Composite scores are the average of the Math and Reading scores for 12th graders tested in 2009; Math scores (0 to 300) were converted to fit the Reading scale of 0 to 500.Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer

Amer

ican

Indian

/Alask

a Nat

ive

Asian/

Pacific

Island

er

Blac

k no

n-Hisp

anic

Hispan

ic

White

non

-Hisp

anic

050

100150200250300350

261.7295.1

243.6 251.8282.3

Average Annual Wage/Salary Income Distribution by Race/Ethnicity, 2006-2010

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,00075th

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (via NCHEMS)

Percentiles

Voices From the Enrollment Management Trenches

“None of us would ever want to see the day when we had to choose whether to spend our resources on excellence or access. Put more starkly: We never want our values to depend on the markets.”

- Raynard Kington, President of Grinnell College

“A lot of institutions are asking, ‘Can we afford our values?’ And the answer is: We can’t.”

- a vice president at a private non-profit college

“How do we back away from students who are least likely to succeed, and replace them with students who are most likely to succeed?”

- an enrollment management consultant

Percent of Dependent Students Receiving Grants and Average Amount Received by Source of Grant and

Income Quartile, 2007-08

Source: NPSAS

Lowest Quartile

Second Quartile

Third Quartile

Highest Quartile

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

65

.4%

22

.1%

0.5

%

0.6

%

33

.4%

24

.9%

15

.5%

10

.9%

29

.0%

28

.4%

27

.4%

25

.0%

Lowest Quartile

Second Quartile

Third Quartile

Highest Quartile

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$3

,52

9

$2

,09

3

$2

,35

7

$2

,78

3

$2

,91

6

$2

,83

1

$2

,50

9

$2

,78

5$4

,58

0

$5

,65

4

$6

,86

1

$7

,15

5

First-Time Undergraduate Enrollment of Racial/Ethnic Groups by Sector, 2010-

11

Note: Figures represent degree/certificate-seeking students at degree-granting Title IV-eligible institutions.Source: NCES IPEDS.

American Indian/Alaska

Native

Asian/Hawaiian/Pacific Islander

Black non-Hispanic Hispanic White non-Hispanic0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

31.3%42.1%

28.9% 30.2%39.0%

12.0%

17.5%

13.4% 9.5%

18.7%

47.8%

36.0%

42.8% 49.1%

36.4%

8.9% 4.4%14.9% 11.2%

5.9%

Public Four-Years Private Non-profit Public Two-Years Private For-Profits

Student Mobility is an Increasingly Significant Phenomenon

Source: Hossler, D. et al (2012). Transfer and Mobility: A National View of Pre-Degree Student Movement in Postsecondary Institutions. National Student Clearinghouse Signature Report #2.

Policy Responses

• State goals that include targets for underrepresented populations

• Consumer information• Disclosures• Reporting requirements

• Market-oriented, incentives-driven finance policies• Demand-side completion incentives in financial aid• Performance funding• Longitudinal data systems including workforce information

• Standards alignment and equal expectations for all• Regulation to preserve quality and promote

transferability of credits• Disruptive innovation (i.e., MOOCs, prior learning

assessment)

Distractions

• Rankings• Mission creep• Faculty complaints about student quality• Alumni• Redefining diversity• Confusing two kinds of “fit”

Discussion

• How is the enrollment management business changing? Will traditional measures of success in enrollment management operations be adequate for meeting society’s need for a well-educated population?

• How can we ensure that financial barriers do not prevent capable students from accessing and succeeding in college? In particular, how do we deal with the increasing pressure to maximize net tuition?

• How can we balance institutional interests with societal interests when they aren’t in perfect alignment, and what does that mean for leadership in the higher education industry?

Institutional Responses

• Contribute to a more productive dialogue about college more aligned to society’s needs and less about institutional distinctiveness.

• Enrollment management policies and practices.• Attract URM students and help ensure their success.• Create more opportunities for community college students.

• Consider a framework for aid packaging that is transparent with clear incentives.

• Integrate enrollment management efforts with student success activities and measure results.• Understand and highlight the Common Core and its relationship to

college prep expectations.

• Embrace the evidence – look for ways to leverage your data for student success.