wmo-jma public forum workshop of the world conference on disaster reduction: reducing risks of...

WMO-JMA Public Forum Workshop of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Reducing Risks of Weather, Climate and Water Extremes through Advanced Detecting, Monitoring, Early Warnings and Opportunities of Information Society (21 January 2005)

RECENT DEVELOPMENTSRECENT DEVELOPMENTSININ

MONITORING AND PREDICTION MONITORING AND PREDICTION OFOF

EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE EVENTSEXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE EVENTS

Hiroshi SATODAHiroshi SATODA

Japan Meteorological AgencyJapan Meteorological Agency

Tsu Local Observatory


WATCHING EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE EVENTS

Winkel's projection

40002000

Km

0

Japan Meteorological Agency

Analysis

Anomaly charts

(oC)

Advisories/ recommendationsto improve reporting practice

Synoptic and climatological reports

WMO/CBS Lead Centre Quality Check

0

1

2

34

5

6

7

1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

年

/30

出現

数（

回年

）

Trend in anomalously high/low temperature frequency

Japan high

low

Number of events per year

2

Public

Policy makers

NMHSs

NMHS: National Meteorological and Hydrological Service


Monitoring of the current status of the climate system

CLIMATE SYSTEM MONITORING

Atmospheric circulation Oceanic conditions Tropical convection etc

Winkel's projection

40002000

Km

0

Global Observing System

Objective analysis

3


MONITORING OF DISASTERS AND EXTREME EVENTS

Winkel's projection

40002000

Km

0

Wet Jul

Hot, dry, forest fire Jun-Sep

Dry Jun, Drought Jun-Jul

Hot Jun-Jul

Dry JunDrought Jun-Jul

Wet Jul,OctWet, typhoons May-Nov,Dec

Storm,wet Oct

Cold Jun-Jul

Wet May-JunHurricanes Aug-Sep

Wet Jan-FebWet Jul,AugCyclones,storm Apr-Oct

Hot JunHeat wave, Forest fire Jun-Jul

Cyclones Mar

Cold Jan,Feb

Dry OctDrought Sep-Nov

Cold Dec-Jan

Stormy snow Nov Forest fire Oct

Global extreme climate event chart (Extreme events in 2004)

Press reportson natural disasters

Climate systemmonitoring

FloodFlood

Forest fireForest fire

DroughtDroughtAmagi Agricultural Office

Cool summerCool summer10 Sep 2003 Iwate Prefecture

4


EUROPEAN HOT SUMMER 2003

Temperature anomalies (1-12 Aug 2003)

500 hPa circulation (1-12 Aug 2003) 850 hPa circulation and temperature (1-12 Aug 2003)

Issued a report of JMA’s views

on the status of the high temperature in

Europe on 13 August 2003

Meet requirements for information on the

status and mechanisms of extreme events

5


ENSEMBLE SEASONAL PREDICTION

Slightly different initial conditions

Numerical prediction with the supercomputer

Set of predictions (ensemble prediction)

Analysis PredictionsTemperature anomaly

Below normal

Above normal

Normal

20 % 30 % 50 %

Probabilities of anomaly

With the ensemble prediction method …

(1) probability predictions can be issued; and

(2) accuracy will increase with model improvement.

6


Mean surface temperature in the last 1000 years (Northern Hemisphere)

0

-0.5

+0.5

1000 1500 2000 2100

Global mean temperaturelower estimate （ 1.4℃）

Global mean temperatureupper estimate （ 5.8℃）

GLOBAL WARMING AND EXTREME EVENTS

IPCC Third Assessment Report

Very likely:•Higher max temperature and more hot days (all land)•Higher min temperature and fewer cold and frost days (all land)•Reduced diurnal temperature range (most land areas)•more intense precipitation events (mid-/high- lat land)

Likely:•Increased summer drying, risk of drought (mid-lat continent)•Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind and precipitation

Projected changes in extreme weather and climate events

7


Projection of regional climate change by 2100

Projection of global climate change by 2100

GLOBAL WARMING PROJECTION

surface temperature changesurface temperature change

precipitation changeprecipitation change

Researchers of impact assessment on

temperature changetemperature change

precipitation change (Jul)precipitation change (Jul)

•Forestry•Agriculture•Terrestrial ecosystem•Disaster risk management•Health …

8


ACTIVITIES OF TOKYO CLIMATE CENTER

Monitoring of Global Climate System

Global DynamicalPrediction

Monitoring of Extreme Events

Asia-Pacific NMHSsAsia-Pacific NMHSs

Provision of Basic Climate Data and Products

ENSO Outlook

Graphic informationGrid Point Values

Technical Assistance

Capacity Building Activities

Global WarmingProjection Requirements

Graphic information

General usersGeneral users

9

wmo-jma public forum workshop of the world conference on disaster reduction: reducing risks of...

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