wmo typhoon landfall forecast demonstration project …€¦ · · 2012-11-30wmo typhoon landfall...

WMO WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMODemonstration Project (WMO--TLFDP)TLFDP)

Concept and progressConcept and progress

Yu Yu HuiHui （余晖）（余晖）Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMAShanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA

Backgrounds and objectivesImplementation tasks and organizationProgressCollaboration with the THORPEX TCEFPFuture plan

OutlineOutline

Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009A component of the Shanghai MHEWS projectImplementing duration: 2010-20122010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP

BackgroundsBackgrounds

To enhance the ability of forecasters to issue timely and accurate typhoon forecasts and strengthen the ability of decision-makers to analyze and determine the accuracy of typhoon forecastsTo demonstrate the performance of the most advanced typhoon forecasting technique in the worldTo assess the WMO-TLFDP’s impacts on enhancing the typhoon forecast service as well as its social and economic benefitsTo promote the implementation of the most up to date forecast technique for landfall typhoons in typhoon-affected Members of WMOTo enhance the capability of forecasting typhoon landfall for the “Shanghai MHEWS” to enable SMS to provide enhanced typhoon forecast service during Shanghai Expo 2010

ObjectivesObjectives

Implementation tasksImplementation tasks

Collection of realCollection of real--time forecast datatime forecast data

Verification of forecastsVerification of forecasts

Dissemination of productsDissemination of products

Benefit AssessmentBenefit Assessment

Forecast integration techniques and Forecast integration techniques and reliability analysesreliability analyses

OrganizationOrganization

International Scientific Steering CommitteeInternational Scientific Steering Committee

Project Coordination GroupProject Coordination Group

East China Regional Steering CommitteeEast China Regional Steering Committee

Team 1Team 1Data collection and Data collection and

disseminationdissemination

Team 2Team 2Forecast verificationForecast verification

Team 3Team 3Forecast integrationForecast integration

Team 4Team 4Benefit assessmentBenefit assessment

Co-chairs: Prof. Lianshou CHENDr. Xu TANG

Team leaders:Dr. Binke ZHAO Dr. Hui YU

Dr. Barbara BROWNMr. Xiaofeng WANGMr. Zhiqiang CHEN

Ms. Liying TAOMr. L.S. LEE

Lead agencies

Coordination departments

Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMAShanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA

East China RMC/CMAEast China RMC/CMA

RSMC Tokyo RSMC Tokyo –– Typhoon CenterTyphoon Center

WWRP/WMOWWRP/WMO

TCP/WMOTCP/WMO

PWS/WMOPWS/WMO

OrganizationOrganization

ProgressProgress

• Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/ CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009

• Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009• A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project• Implementing duration: 2010-2012• 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off • Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical

Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP

Real time data collectionProducts disseminationForecast evaluation and reliability analysesBenefit assessmentTraining and demonstration

List of typhoon forecast products List of typhoon forecast products providers (providers (TFPPsTFPPs))

Full name AbbreviationAbbreviation Ways of contribution

1 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWFECMWF GTS, FTP and via TIGGE

2 Hong Kong Observatory HKOHKO GTS and FTP

3 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration ITMMITMM FTP and Intranet of

CMA

4 Japan Meteorological Agency JMAJMA GTS, FTP and via TIGGE

5 Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the United States JTWCJTWC GTS

6 Korea Meteorological Administration KMAKMA GTS and via TIGGE

7 Meteorological Service of Canada MSCMSC Via TIGGE

8 National Centers for Environmental Prediction of the United States NCEPNCEP Via TIGGE

9 National Hurricane Center of the United States NHCNHC FTP

10 National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration NMC/CMANMC/CMA GTS, FTP, Intranet of

CMA and via TIGGE

11 East China Regional Meteorological Centre of China Meteorological Administration ECRMCECRMC FTP

12 RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center of the World Meteorological Organization RSMC TokyoRSMC Tokyo GTS

13 Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration STISTI FTP, Intranet of CMA

and via TIGGE

Type TFPP Track Intensity Wind Radii

2-D griddedsurface

wind

2-D gridded

precipitation

3-D griddedmodel output

Official FCST

HKOJTWCKMA

NMC/CMARSMC Tokyo

YYYYY

YYYYY

Y

Y (A)Y (A)

Global model

ECMWFJMA

NMC/CMAYY

YY

YYY

YYY

YYY

Regional model

STIITMM

RMCEC

YY

YY

YYY

YYY

Y

Y

Ensemble prediction

ECMWFJMAKMAMSCNCEP

NMC/CMASTI

YYYYYYY

YYYYYYY

Cconsensusprediction

STI Y

Statistical prediction

HKONHC/USA

STI Y YY (P)

Y

List of products collected in real timeList of products collected in real time

A: only analyses available; P: probability

Data ArchivingData Archiving

All the related data and products of named tropical cyclones since May 2010 are archived by SMSAvailable to research, training and capacity-building activities

ProgressProgress




Real time data collectionProducts disseminationForecast evaluation and reliability analysesBenefit assessmentTraining and demonstration

Operational website of Shanghai Typhoon Warning CenterOperational website of Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center---- a component of Shanghai MHEWSa component of Shanghai MHEWS

In ChineseReleased in July 2010

In support of EXPO2010

HKO QMORPH ProductSTI/CMA TC Size Forecast Product

MICAPS TC PlugMICAPS TC Plug--inin

A tool for browsing and analyzing tropical cyclone information together with other data from multiple sources.In support of EXPO2010

Website of the project Website of the project (http://(http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cntlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn))

Released in June, 2011Released in June, 2011

FY-2E Satellite imagesFY-2E Satellite images

Track & intensity forecast and real time verificationTrack & intensity forecast and real time verification

Gridded model outputGridded model output High winds striking prob.High winds striking prob.

Striking probability(EPS and super-ensemble)Striking probability(EPS and super-ensemble)Sample Sample

imagesimages

ProgressProgress




Real time data collectionProducts disseminationForecast verification and reliability analysesTraining and demonstrationBenefit assessment

Operational TC forecast verification practice Operational TC forecast verification practice in the western North Pacific regionin the western North Pacific region

The current operational status of TC forecast verification is analyzed on the basis of an e-mail survey covering all the Members of UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon CommitteeMain conclusions are

Significant efforts have been focused on the verification of TC forecast guidance by operational forecast agencies in the regionOnly a few verification products are available for the probabilistic forecasts from EPSVerification of TC precipitation and high wind forecasts are also lacking sufficient attention in the region

New attempts by TLFDPNew attempts by TLFDPTrack and landfall forecastTrack and landfall forecast




Relative forecast skill of TC moving speed and directionRelative forecast skill of TC moving speed and directionHit rate of landfallHit rate of landfallRelation between track forecast error and guiding flowRelation between track forecast error and guiding flow

Method CONS_MODEL CMA_GSM GRAPES-TCM ITMM_TMM JMA_GSM ECMWF_GSM

Average Error(unit:km)

44.5 59.2 99.6 128.6 47.3 51.8

SSR: R (unit:%) 66.7% 72.2% 83.3% 66.7% 72.2% 61.1%

SFR: F (unit:%) 85.71% 92.9% 93.8% 80.0% 100% 91.7%

Evaluation form of TC landing point forecast in 2010-2011 (China)

Relation between track forecast error and guiding flowRelation between track forecast error and guiding flow

New attempts by TLFDPNew attempts by TLFDPIntensity forecastIntensity forecast

Skill scoreCategory skill scoreJoint charts of POD and FARTrend analysesRelation between intensity forecast error and initial intensity error of NWP modelsBS, PRS, and ranking analyses of EPS forecasts

165 149 132 113 74 57

12h 24h 36h 48h 60h 72h0

0.03

0.06

0.09

0.12

0.15

0.18

0.21

0.24

0.27

0.3

Forecast interval (h)

Skill

score

s

TCSP XSQD JAPN PLSC IPAA IWAA PGTW BABJ

Skill scores versus chance of eight TC intensity forecast techniques

Reliability analyses based on initial Reliability analyses based on initial intensity error of NWP modelintensity error of NWP model

New attempts by TLFDPNew attempts by TLFDPPrecipitation forecastPrecipitation forecast


• Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009

• A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project

• Implementing duration: 2010-2012

• 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off

• Working closely with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP

VariablesResoluti

on of the Model

Verified Region Verification Indices Observation

TMP/P850RH/P700HGT/P500WIND/P500

15km & 9km Model region MODE, DOE, RMSE,

MAE, ME, CORRAnalyses field of the

model

2m TMP10m WIND 9km Model region MODE, DOE, RMSE,

MAE, ME, CORRAnalyses field of the

model

Precipitation 9km

Model region MODE, DOE, RMSE, MAE, ME, CORR

A combination of TRMM precipitation and surface observation

ECR & Individual provinces

DOE, RMSE, MAE, ME, CORR , ETS, TS, TSS, Accuracy, POD, FAR, MAR

Surface observation

List of realList of real--time MET products for SMBtime MET products for SMB--WARMSWARMS

MODE products for 24h precipitation initialized at 00UTC August 31 2010. (a)forecast of SMB-WARMS; (b)Observation.

ο

24h precipitation from (a) SMB-WARMS and (b) MICAPS, initialized at 12UTC August 29 2011

An evaluation system for tropical An evaluation system for tropical cyclone forecastcyclone forecast

Based on the experiences gained through the implementation of TLFDP and a survey on current operational status of TC forecast verification in the western North Pacific region, an evaluation system for TC forecast is proposed and will act as a guideline for future work of TLFDP.

ProgressProgress




Real time data collectionProducts disseminationForecast evaluation and reliability analysesTraining and demonstrationBenefit assessment

• June 2010, Shanghai• 11 lecturers from 9 institutions• Trainees: 20 forecasters working

for the World Expo 2010

• June 2012, Shanghai• 11 lecturers from 9 institutions• Trainees: 40 forecasters

Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center (STWC)Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center (STWC)

– A component of Shanghai Multi Hazard Early Warning System– Monitor and forecast tropical cyclones in North West Pacific,

especially those with potential to affect Eastern China Region (ECR) – Issue tropical cyclone warnings for ECR

– A component of Shanghai Multi Hazard Early Warning System– Monitor and forecast tropical cyclones in North West Pacific,

especially those with potential to affect Eastern China Region (ECR) – Issue tropical cyclone warnings for ECR

WMO-TLFDP HomepageWMOWMO--TLFDP HomepageTLFDP HomepageOperational website of STWCOperational website of Operational website of STWCSTWC

Data CollectionData CollectionData Collection

VerificationVerificationVerification

ProgressProgress




Real time data collectionProducts disseminationForecast evaluation and reliability analysesTraining and demonstrationBenefit assessment

Benefit assessmentBenefit assessment

A series of surveys were carried out to assess the benefit of the WMO-TLFDPThe survey’s objects were divided into three groups: public users, industrial and special users and meteorological forecastersThe objective of the public user survey is to gauge the public’s opinions on the accuracy of weather forecasts and typhoon warnings issued by SMSThe objective of the forecaster survey is to gauge the forecaster’s opinions on the typhoon forecasting and on the typhoon objective techniques during the project period

0

1 0

20

30

40

50

60

Synopti cAnal ysi s

Landfal l i ngPoi nt

Landfal l i ngTi me

I ntensi tyChange

Great Wi ndZone

Quanti ty ofthe

Rai nstorm

Rai nstormattacki ng

Zone

Forecasters’ need: the most troubling issue in TC forecasting

From TCEFP to TLFDPTC EPS products in CXML formatVerification information on TC EPS productsTraining (to help forecasters prepared to use TC EPS products)

From TCEFP to TLFDPTC EPS products in CXML formatVerification information on TC EPS productsTraining (to help forecasters prepared to use TC EPS products)

Collaboration with the THORPEX NW Pacific Collaboration with the THORPEX NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast RDP

From TLFDP to TCEFPIdeas or requirements on user-oriented TC EPS productsFeedbacks on how and to what extent TC EPS products benefit the operational forecast and public serviceTraining (to popularize the experience of using TC EPS products to broader users)

From TLFDP to TCEFPIdeas or requirements on user-oriented TC EPS productsFeedbacks on how and to what extent TC EPS products benefit the operational forecast and public serviceTraining (to popularize the experience of using TC EPS products to broader users)

Training on EPS and popularization Training on EPS and popularization of the experienceof the experience

Dr. Tetsuo Nakazawa, June 2010, ShanghaiDr. Jing Chen, June 2012, ShanghaiDr. Hui Yu, November 2010, La Reunion

A selective consensus method for track A selective consensus method for track forecast based on forecast based on EPSsEPSs

Evaluation of intensity forecasts Evaluation of intensity forecasts from from EPSsEPSs

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

Brie

r Sco

re

Forecast Hour (h)

NMC/CMA STI KMA JMAECMWF MSC NCEP

(a) Brier score of the seven TIGGE ensemble prediction systems in 2010; (b) The same as (a) but with initial correction; (c) Improvements in Brier score by initial correction.

– Real-time TC forecast products are collected through various ways from a total of 13 agencies, including the TIGGE TC EPS productsfrom 7 agencies.

– A real time verification platform of TC forecast has been set up.– An evaluation system for TC forecast has been set up.– A variety of TC forecast and verification products are disseminated

through the WMO-TLFDP website (http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn).– A new landfall typhoon forecast flow based on the products of

WMO-TLFDP has been experimentally set up in ECRMC/CMA, in which the TC EPS products are playing an important role.

– Based on a benefit assessment of TC forecast services in Shanghai from 2010 to 2011, the overall satisfaction factor is fairly high up to 82.3%.

WMO WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMODemonstration Project (WMO--TLFDP)TLFDP)

The WMO-TLFDP has made significant progress in various aspects, which can be summarized as follows:

The WMO-TLFDP has made significant progress in various aspects, which can be summarized as follows:

Future PlanFuture Plan

The project will be continued till the end of 2015Two teams will be formed for the continuation

Demonstration application of new TC forecast products and verification techniquesBenefit assessment

Thank you for your attention.Thank you for your attention.

For more information, please visit WMOFor more information, please visit WMO--TLFDP website: TLFDP website: http://http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cntlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn(Please email to Mr. LI (Please email to Mr. LI QingqingQingqing [email protected]@mail.typhoon.gov.cnfor username and password.) for username and password.)

Tang X., X.T. Lei, H. Yu, 2012: WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast DeTang X., X.T. Lei, H. Yu, 2012: WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration monstration Project (WMOProject (WMO--TLFDP) TLFDP) -- Concept and Progress. Tropical Cyclone Research and Concept and Progress. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review.Review.

wmo typhoon landfall forecast demonstration project …€¦ · · 2012-11-30wmo typhoon landfall...

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