Wool Market in the Balance:

Global Wool Prices, Supply and Demand

Chris Wilcox

Chairman, Market Intelligence Committee

IWTO 2016 Congress, Sydney

4 April 2016

Anticipated− Slow economic recovery in advanced

economies

− China economy in transition

− Better raw wool demand

− Low world wool production

− Pull-back in superfine wool production

− Higher wool prices, particularly merino

cardings

− Continued strong demand for double-faced

woollen fabric

Events Affecting the Wool Industry since

84th IWTO Congress in 2015

Surprises− Spike in prices and surge in supplies in

Australia in May-June 2015

− Large decline in commodity prices

− Periods of global sharemarket upheaval

− Recovery in A$ and NZ$ against US$

World Wool Prices In the Past Year(% change March 2016 compared with March 2015)

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Aust EMI

Aust 18um

Aust Merino Card

South Africa MI

South Africa 21um

NZ Fine xbred

NZ xbred

British MI

Uruguay corriedaleUS$

Local currency

% change

Source: AWEX, NZ Wool Services, Capewools, BWMB, Zambrano & Cia (Uruguay)

Wool Outperforms Other Commodities% change March 2016 vs March 2015 – US$ base

Source: AWEX, The Economist, CotLook, PCI Fibres

Prices to March 2016

Apparel wool – Australian EMI; Interiors Wool – NZ Crossbred wool

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

ApparelWool

InteriorsWool

Cashmere Cotton PolyesterStaple

Acrylic Oil Metals

% change y-o-y

World Wool Production Down then Flat

• World wool production steady in 2014/15 at 1,166 mkg clean

• World production predicted down by 1.5% in 2015/16– Up in China, India, UK, Mongolia and USA

– Down in Australia (-7%), New Zealand, South Africa, Uruguay (-9%)

• Continued interest in sheep for meat or dual-purpose

• Competition from other agricultural enterprises lessens (e.g. dairy in NZ)

• Superfine (18.5 micron and finer) wool production falls back from peak

• Major decline in medium and broader Merino wool

• World wool production predicted to be flat in 2016/17– Lower production in Australia offset by expected increases in most other IWTO

countries

World Wool Production TrendsTotal wool production - mkg clean

Source: IWTO national committee reports, FAO and Poimena Analysis

Note: 2015 = 2014/15 for Australia, NZ, Uruguay, Argentina, South Africa. Updated: 30th March 2016

mkg clean 2015 2016f % change 2017f % change

“Apparel” wool IWTO countries

Australia 277 258 -7.0% 256 -0.6%

Argentina 28 28 0.0% 29 +0.7%

South Africa 30 30 -1.0% 30 +1.6%

Uruguay 22 19 -8.8% 20 +3.8%

USA 7.2 7.3 +1.5% 7.4 +1.9%

“Interior textile” wool IWTO countries

China 176 177 +0.3% 177 0.0%

New Zealand 114 112 -2.2% 112 +0.1%

India 39 39 +0.6% 39 +0.5%

UK 22 22 -1.0% 22 0.0%

Mongolia 17 18 +8.4% 21 +11.1%

Others 442 446 +0.8% 449 +0.7%

Global 1,166 1,148 -1.5% 1,154 +0.5%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0

20

40

60

80mkg clean % of Total Clip

mkg clean % of totalWORLD

Superfine Wool Production

Pulls Back from Peak

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

20

40

60

80

mkg clean % of Total Clip

% of totalAUSTRALIAmkg clean

Source: Poimena Analysis, AWTA, NZWTA, Cape Wools, FLA, Delta, American Sheep

Industries, China Wool Textile Association.

Updated March 2016

Medium Merino Wool Production DropsAustralian Wool Production by Micron Range

Shares

Source: Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee and Australian Wool

Testing Authority

Updated: March 2016

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1991/92 1994/95 1997/98 2000/01 2003/04 2006/07 2009/10 2012/13 2015/16f

18.5um & finer 18.6-20.5 um 20.6-24.5 um 24.6um and broader% share

IWTO Wool Textile Business Survey 2016

Eleven countries reported

Care with interpreting results

Early stage processing tracking slightly below “normal”

Knitting, weaving and interior textiles sectors come back from

“good” conditions

Spinning improving a little

Excess stocks in weaving, knitting, garment making and interior

textiles in 2015

Stocks now under control?

Low stocks currently in ESP

Wool Textile Industry Production Activity:

Return to Normal Levels?

1

2

3

4

5

Rating

Early Stage Proc

Spinning

Weaving

Source: IWTO Wool Textile Business Survey

Weighted results for China, Italy, Germany, Uruguay, Mongolia, Argentina,

South Africa, Japan, France, Spain and the United Kingdom

Very Good

Normal

Good

Poor

Very Poor 1

2

3

4

5

Rating

Knitting

Garment making

Interior textiles

Wool Textile Industry Stock Levels

Pull Back from Highs

1

2

3

4

5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 April2014

2014 April2015

2015 March2016

End2016f

Early Stage Proc Spinning

Weaving Knitting

Garment making Interior textiles

Well above

normal

Above normal

Normal

Below normal

Well below

normal

Source: IWTO Wool Textile Business Survey

Weighted results for China, Italy, Germany, Uruguay, Mongolia, Argentina,

South Africa, Japan, France, Spain and the United Kingdom

Raw Wool Imports by Europe Turns Up12 month rolling aggregate

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Total China

% change y-o-y

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, FLA, SUL, Capewools, Beef and Lamb NZ

Data to January 2016

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%India

Western Europe

Other

% change y-o-y

Clothing Retail Sales in the Major Wool

Consuming Countries

% change y-o-y 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Oct-Jan

2014 2015

China +25.8% +25.1% +17.7% +11.5% +10.8% +9.5% +8.9% +6.6%

USA +6.0% +3.4% +0.9% +1.3% +1.1% +3.8% +5.1% +1.5%

Japan -6.3% +3.2% -0.4% -0.7% -0.5% -2.3% -1.0% -3.3%

Germany +1.2% +0.9% -0.3% +0.1% +1.3% +2.6% +2.1% +1.6%

UK +5.4% +3.3% +1.5% +3.1% +5.2% +1.6% -1.0% +0.2%

Italy +0.8% -1.1% -2.3% -2.1% -1.3% +0.8% -1.1% +0.7%

France +2.8% +1.7% +0.6% +1.1% +1.2% +2.9% +1.6% +2.0%

South Korea +9.8% +8.6% +3.2% +0.8% +1.6% +3.5% +0.7% +5.6%

Source: Government statistical bureaus.

Notes: Value of retail sales. China is for retail sales of garments, hats, footwear and knitwear.

Japan is for major department stores. Germany, Italy, France and South Korea is total

retail sales.

Retail Sales of Furnishings and

Floorcoverings in Selected Countries

% change y-o-y China USA Japan UK

2010 +37.2% +2.1% -4.0% -17.6%

2011 +32.8% +9.6% -1.8% -22.1%

2012 +27.0% +6.3% +1.7% +28.9%

2013 +21.0% +10.4% -2.5% +14.5%

2014 +13.9% +6.5% -1.8% -3.1%

2015 +16.1% +5.9% -14.8% -28.9%

Source: Government statistical bureaus.

Notes: Value of retail sales. China is for retail sales of furniture including floorcoverings, USA

is for carpets and other floorcoverings. Japan is for sales of furniture in major

department stores. UK is for floor covering retail stores.

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

Knitwear Men's suits Men'sseparates

Men's coats Women'swovens (ex

coats)

Women'scoats

Woolfloorcoverings

2012 2013 2014 2015

$US million

-2%

+1%

-4%

-5%

-12%

-14%

-4%

Source: OTEXA

Disappointing US Imports of Wool Products

in 2015(Value - Calendar Year)

Drivers and Prospects for 2016/17

• Slower world economic growth in 2016 and 2017

– Solid in US and UK, improving in Europe and Japan

– China slowing and in transition – a key for wool

• Positive consumer confidence in the US, Europe and

Japan

• BUT… Disappointing results for US imports of wool

products

• Mixed forecasts for growth in private consumption

• Wool textile industry stocks now under control?

• Low world wool production continues

• High price ratio for wool against cotton prices and

synthetic fibres – does it matter?

• US$ predicted to be strong against grower country

currencies, but how accurate are the forecasters?

Prospects in the balance

Country

Share of

wool at

retail

Private Consumption Forecasts

2014 2015 2016(f) 2017(f)

China* 23% 7.3% 6.9% 6.4% 6.2%

USA 11% 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% 2.6%

Japan 9% -1.0% -1.2% 0.4% 0.1%

Italy 5% 0.4% 0.9% 1.4% 1.2%

Germany 5% 0.9% 1.9% 2.0% 1.6%

South Korea 5% 3.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4%

UK 4% 2.6% 2.9% 2.7% 2.2%

France 3% 0.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.6%

Private Consumption Forecasts in Key

Apparel Wool Consuming Countries

(f) forecast. * China is GDP growth.

Source: Poimena Analysis for wool at retail, three year average 2012-14, Consensus

Forecast (March 2016)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

19 micron 21 micron 28 micron

Ratio

Wool Price Competitiveness US$ terms

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

19 micron 21 micron 28 micron

Ratio Synthetics Cotton

Source: AWEX, Cotton Outlook, PCI Fibres, CIRFS, Woolmark, Poimena AnalysisData to March 2016

Note: for 28 micron wool, the ratio is against acrylic fibre

Thank You!

Lower Wool Exports This SeasonFinancial Year to January

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Australia New Zealand Argentina South Africa Uruguay Total

mkg g

reasy e

quiv

.

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

-11%+2%

-9%

-20%

-5%

-8%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, FLA, SUL, Capewools, Beef and Lamb NZ