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CONVERGE – Rethinking Globalisation in the light of Contraction & CONVERGEnce

WORK PACKAGE 3, led by APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SYSTEM DYNAMICS (ASASD) GROUP, LUND UNIVERSITY, SWEDEN

By Harald Sverdrup & Deniz Koca

+DESCRIPTION OF WORK

WP3 is responsible for the development of a holistic indicator framework for convergence based on; the principles and baseline information provided by WP2;

and the analysis of existing sustainability indicator frameworks

i.e. the Human Development Index, The Genuine Progress Indicator, the New Economics Foundations Happy Planet index, Yale’s sustainability index, GDP and Green GDP etc.

ULUND will develop the multifunctional domain use function, i.e. the synthesis of the socio, economic, and environmental indicators, through CONVERGE requirement analysis. This analysis will be based mainly upon collaboration between ULUND and UOB (WP2) on the understanding of convergence and divergence processes, and the analysis of sustainability frameworks.

PART 1. Development of the CONVERGE indicator framework

+DESCRIPTION OF WORK

Expected outcome is a hierarchal list of impact issues and a related key indicator framework, which will include multi-dimensional domain influence of human activity onto the anthroposphere (or the Sustainable Domain Functions, SDF). This will be performed by ULUND through a combination of reviewing existing methodologies and inventing a new one.

The CONVERGE indicator framework will be adapted to measure success through so-called sustainable choice space (SCS).

Results from community-action research (HI, WP7) will be used to refine indicator framework as well as field testing.

PART 1. Development of the CONVERGE indicator framework … CONTINUED

+COMMUNITY ACTION RESEARCH & GROUP MODELLING WORKSHOPS

+DESCRIPTION OF WORK

This is related to the indicator framework but adds the possibility of adaptability and operationality of the indicator framework. This adaptability will enable the adaptive management approach taken in part three. This part will rely mainly on cooperation between UOB (WP2), TNS (WP5) and HI (WP7).

PART 2. Development of the CONVERGE methodological tool

+DESCRIPTION OF WORK

This part will be undertaken by including the backcasting from principle methodology from the Natural Step

Framework (TNS) and, integrating the system dynamic modelling in the DPSIR process, making the

indicator framework part of a dynamic adaptable management process.

The work will be performed with input from UOB (WP8), SZIU (WP4), TNS (WP5) and WP9 and WP7.

CONVERGE will enhance the robustness of the DPSIR model so it can describe and analyse several environmental dimensions simultaneously and in a dynamical fashion. The end results will be a new decision support process, aimed at decision makers that need to understand consequences of their policies before implementing them.

A modelling case study will be carried out in a selected community (nation/region?) in order to apply the decision support process and test the framework, which will be developed in WP7.

PART 3. Enhancing the decision support framework of the DPSIR process

+Systems analysis is used to map the systems as causal loop diagrams as the links between the indicators and intermediate parameters

+Dynamically enhanced DPSIR

+Dynamic model

Integrative model frame

Simulation engines

User interface

Basic back-up database

+DELIVERABLES BY WP3

+PROJECTS RUN BY ASASD GROUP THAT COULD SUPPORT WP3 REAL CHANGE (VINNOVA)

Back-casting methodologies Operational definitions of sustainability for social, economic and

natural aspects, resources, structures, properties

ASSESSING SWEDISH ENVIRONMENTAL GOALS (NVV) Sustainability analysis; implementation of policy Group modelling with stakeholders Connections to social and economic issues

DELPHI PROJECT (proposal in evaluation) (MFA) Computergame-based sustainability assessment models multi-agent interactive scenario modelling Large scale case studies

+Coming soon from ULUND

A draft operational definition of sustainability, based on Real Change work

A literature study on social trust and social sustainability, based on Real Change work

A systems analysis pocket course, we should set 2-3 dates

A draft report on global resource use – sustainable population assessment