work plan for model development at nctcog...11. tcm credits for conformity analysis 12. transit...

Work Plan for Model Development at NCTCOG

Arash Mirzaei, P.E.

AMPO Travel Modeling Work GroupSt. Louis, MOJune 11, 2007

2Model Development Group

Outline

Our Current Work • Users• Requests• March 2007 status of modeling system

Our Future Plans• Models• Databases• Tools• Surveys• Schedule and Resources (CompletePlan)


Model Development Group (MDG)Current Work


Modeling Services UsersInternal Customers

Air Quality Planning and Operations GroupTransportation Planning GroupCongestion Management, Safety and Security GroupDemographics and Goods Management Group Transportation Improvement Program (TIP)Regional Transportation Council and Committees

External CustomersLocal Governments (Cities, Counties)Transportation & Land Use ConsultantsTransit Agencies (DART, T, DCTA)TxDOTNTTA


Modeling Services Requests1. Land use/Demographic

Forecast integrated with economic and transportation

2. Sustainable Development/TOD3. Parking Study4. Truck Modeling and Goods

Movement Analyses in Planning

5. HOV Analysis6. Toll Revenue Analysis7. Congestion Pricing8. EJ Analysis9. Emission Analysis

10. MSAT and Noise Analysis11. TCM Credits for Conformity

Analysis12. Transit Planning, Ridership

Forecast 13. Transit Revenue14. New Starts15. Thoroughfare Planning16. Emergency Planning using

Transportation System17. Evacuation Planning18. Ability to Expand Detail

Modeling

Not currently addressed in the model (6)Partially addressed in the model (12)


The Travel ModelCovers 5000 sq. mile with 4874 zonesContains 5 full urban counties of 9 non-attainment countiesLevel of roadway coding is up to local streetsAll transit networks are in the modelAll types of facilities are coded in maximum analytical detail that a 4-step model supportsThe goal of the model performance is that no sub-area analysis with the same modeling paradigm can improve the overall results. ONE model for the MPA.Capable of HOV, Toll, managed lane, and transit analysesHas three time periods Has air port and truck componentsSmoothly linked to AQ applicationsSupported by version maintenanceSupported by file management and archiving system

The Travel Model (TM) is multi level, multi class, and multi purpose


March 2007 StatusTools

TM is very stable in TransCAD 4.8.Transit Coding Tools are complete and stable.Roadway QA Tools are complete and stable.Traditional Report Writers (Perf, Transit, LOS, ...) are complete.File Management system is complete and reliable.

DocumentationTM Description Document is complete.Validation 1999 Reports are complete.

TrainingTraining for use of TM is complete.Documents and Training presentations are available on Intranet.MUG meetings are regularly scheduled and have high interest.


Hours Spent on Projects - Oct ‘06 to March ‘07

Project Type % Hours Spent

Long-Term Projects of MDG 38%

Short Term Projects of MDG 33%

Short Term Projects for Other Groups

12%

Administrative 17%


Long-Term Projects of MDG (38%)Training & Model Users Group Workshops (MUG)Model SupportFile ManagementTransCAD Lab HardwareProfessional DevelopmentDesign of Internet and Intranet sitesTeam Management


Short Term Projects: MDG (35%)Model Improvements

Model Diagnostic 2004Summit InclusionComparative ReportsAutomated Executive ReportsModeling Area Expansion Sensitivity TestingUE Traffic Assignment StabilityTOD Transit Model Development

Traffic Simulation

Model ImplementationTransition to TransCAD 5.0Re-batching the model


Short Term Projects: Other Groups (12%)Transit

DART Model Support DCTA New Start (Transit)DART Onboard Survey Support

Congestion ManagementICM ProjectPOD Locations

Demographics: Skims for Demographic 2040

TIP: Toll Revenue by County


Support for Management Activities (17%)AdministrativeCommitteesLeave (Holiday/Vacation/Sick)


Model Development Group (MDG)Goal: Models


Models NeededLand Use Model

Person Travel Model

Commercial Travel Model

Regional Travel Model to cover 12 counties


Land Use Model (LUM): FeaturesModel Features

Accepts control totals and policies for developmentsConsiders effect of Transportation Mode (e.g. Car Ownership)Sensitive to accessibility measures from travel model

Roadway (HOV, Toll, Managed)Transit (Bus, Rail, BRT, PNR)Bike/Pedestrian

Sensitive to Development PoliciesZoningTaxPricing

More TBD


Land Use Model: Input & OutputInput

Control Totals for Population and EmploymentTransportation NetworkLand AvailabilityDevelopment Policies

Output (In Large Zone Level)Population Employment# Households# FamiliesMedian IncomeMore TBD


Person Travel Model: FeaturesModel Features

Population Synthesis – Generates Households & Family Detail, Worker, Car OwnershipActivity/Trip GeneratorTime and Duration of ActivityMC & DC in individual levelDTA (Signals, Querying, ITS, Toll)Transit AssignmentTrip Data at Individual LevelEffect of accidentsSensitive to Operational DevicesCapable of demand management testingCompatible for traffic micro simulation for any sub-area


Person Travel Model: Input & OutputInput

LUM outputSmall Zone StructureTransportation Networks (Roadway, Truck, Rail, Transit, Bike/Ped)

Output Travel Activities of Individual Persons: (Vehicle Ownership, TOD, Mode, Purpose, Activity Duration, More TBD)Traffic Volume by class (income, vehicle class, TOD)LUM Inputs


Commercial Travel Model: FeaturesModel Features

Tour-basedGoods and Services DeliveryEffect of hubs and depots at Transfer StationsFleet AllocationsTBD


Commercial Travel Model: Input & OutputInput

LUM OutputSmall Zone StructureTransportation NetworksSAM (perhaps)

Output Travel Tours for TrucksTruck Volume (Lightweight, Heavy Truck, TBD)EI, IE, EE Tables


Operation of the ModelsFull Feature Model Run will run in order of days and produces the finest detail of the model output.Project level runs will be customized to run in shorter periods based on the required analysis.

For example, 20 class assignment is not needed for # of Lane Determination.

Computer hardware – A lab with distributed capabilities will be built for the model.Storage solution is already designed and scaleable.Sub-Area analysis of model is doable in all steps of the model.The model & network are compatible for sub-area traffic measures.


Work Plan for New Model CreationInitial Preparation

MDG conducts user and stakeholder meeting to determine the needs.MDG provides historical perspective of model application for guidance.MDG converts the needs to model features and structure.MDG performs investigation and conducts peer reviews to design the model framework.

Framework:MDG breaks the framework into model components with I/O that can be outsourced for development.Outsourcing of model components happens sequentially with significant overlap to limit the length of development.Different contracts for each component.


Work Plan for New Model Creation (con’t)MDG is responsible for connecting the components and creating a functional model.

Timeline (5 years time span)Surveys – 3 yearsModel Development – 4 years Reporting Tools, Application Interface, Diagnostic Reports – 1 year


Model Development Group (MDG)Goal: Databases


Databases Connected to the ModelRoadway Network – Fully rectified roadway network with signal location and ITS.

Coding process needs to ensure quality assurance.Coding should be done in database as soon as construction project plans are ready (master network).Coding environment should be 100% compatible and convenient to use with other components of Information Systems.

Transit Network – Fully rectified transit network with bus operation and schedule.

Inventory Data for each year needs to be kept in database.Coding System should be simplified in process.Fleet data needs to be kept as well.


Databases (con’t)TIP – GIS-based Network

Counts and Surveys – A coordinated effort for data collection and database management is highly needed.

For example, for every project that NCTCOG funds, data format should be already identified in RFP.


Model Development Group (MDG)Goal: Tools


Modeling Tools NeededRoadway– Coding Tools need major overhaul. Idea of master network seems doable.Transit– Major modification after master network implementation is necessary.Reporting – Models (LUM, PTM, CTM) need extensive reporting capabilities.Comparative – Necessary to capture different model runs’output efficiently.Diagnostic – Necessary to inform the analyst of odd model output and inputs.


Model Development Group (MDG)Goal: Surveys


Surveys NeededHousehold SurveyTransit Onboard SurveysExternal SurveyAirportWorkplaceParkingTime-of-Day CountsTime-of-Day SpeedsCommercial Vehicles


Survey Descriptions Household Survey in 2008 or 2009

It may feature market-based sampling to avoid new surveys for airport, transit, or other markets that the general survey normally under samples.Future model structures and needs are formally determined before the survey is done.How the survey is done is determined based on available technology.We may perform a low budget pilot test to test the new technology.Options are using TxDOT system, adding to NHTS Samples, and conducting our own.


Survey Descriptions (pg 2)Transit Onboard Surveys

DART 2007 (funded through UPWP and currently in early stages).FWTA 2008 (funded through UPWP).DCTA.

External SurveyTxDOT 12 County 2006 is done, but needs to be checked for adequacy for mobility.

AirportsDepends on Household survey method.

WorkplaceThe need should be investigated within the new model structure.

Parking Inventory DataSpots available and use by TOD.


Surveys Descriptions (pg 3)Time-of-day counts

Same year as Household survey.Locations should be identified as model framework is designed.Classification of Vehicles.After first major data collection, annual surveys need to be scheduled for smaller samples.

Time-of-day SpeedsSame as Counts.

Commercial Vehicles


The Future Plan: CompletePlan


Future Plan (CompletePlan)CompletePlan is the fastest possible plan.

Duration: 5.5 years (2007 to 2013)

RequirementResources are allocated with no restrictions on budget.

What is IncludedCost and time estimates for major items.A complete working model plan.Documentation

What is Not IncludedTrainingHardware


CompletePlan: Cost Summary

Cost (for 5.5 yr) % Total Avg. Annual CostTotal $12,442,000 100% $2,262,000

Staff*Outsource

Do NothingPlan Addition

$5,642,000$6,800,000

$1,026,000

$2,939,000

45%55%

24%

$1,236,000

$9,503,000 76%$534,000

$1,728,000

*Staff cost is based on $67.5/hour including 1.33 OH


CompletePlan: Cost Breakdown

(in Thousands) Outsource Staff TotalSurvey $4,550 $809 $5,359Model DevelopmentOngoing ActivitiesTotal

$5,372$3,122$2,250- $1,707

$6,800 $5,638$1,707

$12,438


Survey Cost Breakdown

(in Thousands) Outsource Staff TotalHousehold $2,000 $315 $2,315DART Onboard $350 $35 $385FWTA & DCTA Onboard $400 $73 $473Airports $300 $88 $388Workplace $300 $88 $388Parking $200 $70 $270Count & Speed $500 $70 $570Commercial VehicleSurvey Total

$70$500$4,550 $809

$570$5,359


Model Development Cost Breakdown

(in Thousands) Outsource Staff TotalShort Term - $1,123 $1,123Land Use $1,000 $597 $1,597Framework - $105 $105Population Synthesis $250 $105 $355Activity Based Model $600 $211 $811Commercial Veh. Model $400 $140 $540Dynamic Traffic Assign. - $281 $281Model IntegrationModel Dev. Total

$560-$2,250 $3,122

$560$5,372


Ongoing Activities Cost Breakdown

(in Thousands) Outsource Staff TotalProj. for Other Groups - $290 $290Support & MgmtOngoing Act. Total

$1,417-- $1,707

$1,417$1,707


CompletePlan: Staff Manpower Summary

*Staff cost is based on $67.5/hour including 1.33 OH

Cost (5.5 yr)* % Total Avg. Annual Cost

Model Related

Model Support

Outsource QA

OtherTOTAL $5,642,000 100% $1,027,000

$ 451,00041%$2,475,000

$1,716,000 $ 312,000

$1,161,000

29%

20% $ 211,000

10% $ 53,000$ 290,000

Manpower Avg. Annual Manpower

Person Hour

Person Year

83,580

40.1

15,200

7.3