www.esri.ie

Working Paper No. 339

March 2010

International Migration in Ireland, 20091

Philip J. O’Connell and Corona Joyce Corresponding Author: Philip.O’Connell@esri.ie 1 This is the Irish report to the OECD Continuous Reporting System on Migration (SOPEMI). The principal reference year is 2008. The research for the report was funded in part by a grant from the Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform. We wish to thanks officials of the Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform; the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment; and the Central Statistics Office for their assistance in compiling this report.

ESRI working papers represent un-refereed work-in-progress by researchers who are solely responsible for the content and any views expressed therein. Any comments on these papers will be welcome and should be sent to the author(s) by email. Papers may be downloaded for personal use only.

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International Migration in Ireland, 2009 I. Major Developments Legislation In January 2008 the Immigration, Residence and Protection Bill, 2008 was published.

The 2008 Bill was an amended version of the draft Immigration, Residence and

Protection Bill, 2007 which fell with the change of government after the general

election of 2007. As with the 2007 Bill, for the first time in domestic legislation the

phrase ‘foreign nationals’ would refer only to those who are from outside the

European Union. Details of the new Bill are discussed in Section VII

The Criminal Law (Human Trafficking) Act, 2008 was enacted in June 2008. The Act

creates separate offences of trafficking in children for the purpose of labour

exploitation or the removal of their organs; trafficking in children for the purpose of

their sexual exploitation; and trafficking in adults for the purposes of their sexual or

labour exploitation or the removal of their organs. It also makes it an offence to sell or

offer for sale or to purchase or offer to purchase any person, adult or child, for any

purpose. Protection for victims of trafficking was provided in August and November

2008, when the Anti-Human Trafficking Unit of the Department of Justice, Equality

and Law Reform published Administrative Immigration Arrangements for the

Protection of Victims of Human Trafficking. The publication of the notice aimed to

provide information related to administrative arrangements whereby a suspected

victim of human trafficking from outside the EEA may be granted a 45 day period of

‘recovery and reflection’ in the State and may also, in certain circumstances, be

granted one or more periods of temporary residence in the State. This 45 day period of

‘recovery and reflection’ was subsequently amended to 60 days in arrangements

announced in November 2008.

The Employment Compliance Bill, 2008 contained measures to strengthen the ability

of the State to secure improved compliance with employment legislation. It also

contained measures to establish the National Employment Rights Authority (NERA)

on a statutory footing. The Bill was intended to increase penalties for certain offences

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under employment legislation (and certain other enactments); to further amend

employment legislation (and certain other enactments) and to provide for related

matters, including underpayment of staff. Criticism of the Bill centred on the

potential power of labour inspectors to request viewing of employment permits from

workers (and thus containing a perceived ‘immigration’ element) and that the Bill

does not include provisions for domestic workers in private homes or clarity

regarding undocumented workers.

In May 2008 the Minster for Justice, Equality and Law Reform stated his intention to

draft and publish an administrative scheme relating to foreign nationals who were

holders of work permits but had become undocumented and, thereby, were unlawfully

in the State. It was announced that such cases would be dealt with in a ‘humanitarian

way.’ During the year the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment

published a policy regarding a decision to ‘look favourably’ on applications made by

foreign nationals who are current employment permit holders and who have been

made redundant within the previous three months. In addition, it also agreed to

change published regulations on the right of work permit holders to change

employers, with certain limitations. After a minimum of one year with the same

employer work permit holders may now change employers provided that their new

employment is either within the same economic sector in which they are currently

employed or within another eligible sector. In both cases there no longer exists a

labour market test requirement.

Economic Recession The Irish economy moved into recession in the first half of 2008, leading to a

dramatic deterioration in labour market conditions. Gross National Product contracted

by 2.7% in 2008 and is expected to fall by 8.7 per cent in 2009.1 Total employment

fell by almost 175,000 (8.2%) in the time between Quarter 2 2008 and Quarter 2

2009. Unemployment increased from less than 5% at the beginning of 2008 to 12%

of the labour force in Quarter 2, 2009. In this context, immigration declined from a

high of 110,000 in the twelve months to April 2007 to 57,300 in the twelve months to

April 2009, while emigration increased to 65,100 in the year to April 2009. As a

1 Barrett, A., Kearney, I., and Goggin, J., 2009, Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2009. Dublin: ESRI.

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result Ireland registered net outward migration, of 7,800 in the 12 months to April

2009, for the first year since 1995. The inflow from workers from the New EU

Member States2 has fallen considerably over the past year.

2 Note that this excludes Bulgaria and Romania. In December 2008, the Government announced its decision that, from 1 January 2009, it would continue to restrict access to the Irish labour market for nationals of Bulgaria and Romania. This decision will be kept under on-going review and will be assessed before the end of 2011.

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II. General Population and Migration Trends Overall Trends The history of population and migration trends in Ireland since the early part of the

nineteenth century has been outlined in earlier SOPEMI Reports and it is not

proposed to repeat the details of this here. Tables 1 and 2 contain historical series of

population and migration statistics extending back to the middle of the last century.

Table 2 provides annual average figures for the components of population change for

intercensal periods over the time span from 1871 to 2006. This shows the precise

manner in which both net migration and the natural increase in the population have

influenced long-term demographic changes in Ireland.

The population of Ireland (Republic) reached its highest level since 1871 in April

2009 when it was estimated to be 4,459,300. Table 1 shows that the corresponding

figure in 1998 was 3,742,000 implying an increase of 717,000 (19%) over the decade.

Over 55% of the intercensal population increase between 1996 and 2006 was

attributable to net inward migration, with the natural increase in the population

accounting for the remainder.

Table 3 shows annual gross and net migration, between 1987 and 2009.3 This period

was characterised by considerable volatility in regard to migration flows. There were

substantial population losses due to emigration in the late 1980s: the annual outflow

peaked at over 70,000 in 1989. However the position stabilised in the early 1990s

when migration inflows and outflows were more or less in balance. Inward migration

grew steadily since the mid-1990s, to well over 100,000 per annum in 2006 and 2007.

However, in the context of the emerging economic downturn, immigration declined to

57,000 in the twelve months to April 2009. Migratory outflows have also increased

in recent years, as returning immigrants have added their numbers to the emigrating

Irish nationals. In the twelve months to April 2009, the inflow of 57,000 was offset

by an estimated outflow of over 65,000, resulting in net outward migration of almost

8,000: the first year of net outward migration since 1995.

3 Migration and population data are estimated for twelve month periods to April of each year.

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Foreign Nationals in Ireland The number of foreign residents in Ireland peaked at the end of 2007. Census data

indicate that the number of non-Irish nationals almost doubled to 420,000 between

2002 and 2006. The 2006 Census suggests that non-Irish nationals accounted for

about 10% of the total population, up from 6% in 2002. Of these, over 276,000 were

nationals of other EU countries and over 140,000 come from outside the EU25. This

compares to a total of 224,000 non-Irish nationals in 2002, of which 133,000 came

from other EU15 countries and 90,000 from outside the EU. UK citizens accounted

for most non-Irish nationals in Ireland (112,500) in 2006.

Substantial immigration from the EU New Member States (NMS) beginning in 2004

took place up to the end of 2007. Table 5 shows the adult population (aged over 15

years) by nationality in 2004. The total share of foreign nationals in the adult

population increased form 240,700 (7.5%) in 2004 to 485,300 (13.8%) in the final

quarter of 2007. The dominant change is the growth in the number from the NMS,

from 31,000 (1% of the adult population) in 2004 to almost 211,000 (6%) in 2008.

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Table 1. Population of Ireland (Republic) Since 1841 Year Population 1,000s 18411 6,529 18511 5,112 1861 4,402 1871 4,053 1881 3,870 1891 3,469 1901 3,222 1911 3,140 1926 2,972 1936 2,968 1946 2,955 1951 2,961 1961 2,818 1971 2,978 1981 3,443 1982 3,480 1983 3,504 1984 3,529 1985 3,540 1986 3,541 1987 3,547 1988 3,531 1989 3,510 1990 3,506 1991 3,526 1992 3,555 1993 3,574 1994 3,586 1995 3,601 1996 3,626 1997 3,664 1998 3,703 1999 3,742 2000 3,790 2001 3,847 2002 3,917 2003 3,979 2004 4,044 2005 4,131 2006 4,235 2007 4,339 2008 4,422 2009 4,459 1 Armed Forces excluded

Sources: Data from 1841 to 1981 are from previous reports; Data from 1981 to 2006 are from the CSO website, Population Estimates: http://www.cso.ie. Data for 2009 is from CSO, 2009, Population and Migration Estimates April 2009.

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Table 2. Components of Population Change in Intercensal Periods 1871-2006

Intercensal Period

Population Change

Natural Increase (i.e., births less deaths)

Net

Migration

Annual Averages

1871-1881 -18,317 +31,855 -50,172

1881-1891 -40,133 +19,600 -59,733

1891-1901 -24,688 +14,954 -39,642

1901-1911 -8,214 +17,940 -26,154

1911-1926 -11,180 +15,822 -27,002

1926-1936 -357 +16,318 -16.675

1936-1946 -1.331 +17,380 -18,711

1946-1951 +1,119 +25,503 -24,384

1951-1961 -14,226 +26,652 -40,877

1961-1971 +15,991 +29,442 -13,451

1971-1981 +46,516 +36,127 +10,389

1981-1991 +8,231 +28,837 -20,606

1991-1996 +20,074 +18,426 +1,648

1996-2002 48,500 +23,030 +25,511 2002-2006 79,431 +32,829 +46,602

Annual Rates per 1,000 average population

1871-1881 -4.6 +8.0 -12.7

1881-1891 -10.9 +5.3 -16.3

1891-1901 -7.4 +4.5 -11.9

1901-1911 -2.6 +5.6 -8.2

1911-1926 -3.7 +5.2 -8.8

1926-1936 -0.1 +5.5 -5.6

1936-1946 -0.4 +5.9 -6.3

1946-1951 +0.4 +8.6 -8.2

1951-1961 -4.9 +9.2 -14.1

1961-1971 +5.5 +10.2 -4.6

1971-1981 +14.5 +11.3 +3.2

1981-1991 +2.4 +8.3 -5.9

1991-1996 +5.6 +5.2 +0.5

1996-2002 +12.9 +6.1 +6.8

2002-2006 +19.5 +8.1 +11.4

Source: CSO, Census, various years. Available at www.cso.ie.

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Table 3. Gross and Net Migration Flows, 1987-2009

Year Outward Inward Net (ending April) 1,000s

1987 40.2 17.2 -23.0 1988 61.1 19.2 -41.9 1989 70.6 26.7 -43.9 1990 56.3 33.3 -22.9 1991 35.3 33.3 -2.0 1992 33.4 40.7 7.4 1993 35.1 34.7 -0.4 1994 34.8 30.1 -4.7 1995 33.1 31.2 -1.9 1996 31.2 39.2 8.0 1997 25.3 44.5 19.2 1998 28.6 46.0 17.4 1999 31.5 48.9 17.3 2000 26.6 52.6 26.0 2001 26.2 59.0 32.8 2002 25.6 66.9 41.3 2003 29.3 60.0 30.7 2004 26.5 58.5 32.0 2005 29.4 84.6 55.1 2006 36.0 107.8 71.8 2007 42.2 109.5 67.3 2008 45.3 83.8 38.5 2009 65.1 57.3 -7.8

Source: CSO Population and Migration Estimates , various years;

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Table 4: Total Population in 2002 and 2006 Classified by Nationality 2002 2006 1,000s % 1,000s % Irish 3585.0 94.1 3706.7 89.8 United Kingdom 103.5 2.7 112.5 2.7 EU 13 (EU 15 excl IE and UK) 29.9 0.8 42.7 1.0 EU 16-25 120.5 2.9 Rest of Europe 23.1 0.6 24.4 0.6 Africa 21.0 0.6 35.3 0.9 Asia 21.8 0.6 47.0 1.1 America 15.4 0.4 21.1 0.5 Other 9.5 0.2 16.2 0.4 Not stated 49.2 1.3 45.6 1.1 Total 3858.5 100.0 4172.0 100.0 Total Non-Irish 224.3 5.9 419.7 10.2 Source: CSO, Census 2002 and Census 2006 www.cso.ie Table 5: Population aged 15 years and over by Nationality

2004, Quarter 3 2007, Quarter 4 2009, Quarter 2 1,000s % 1,000s % 1,000s % Irish nationals 2,979.60 92.5 3,027.0 86.2 3,079.0 87.4 Non-Irish nationals 240.7 7.5 485.3 13.8 444.8 12.6 of which: United Kingdom 77.5 2.4 95.9 2.7 93.8 2.7 EU15 excl. Irl. & UK 33.8 1 46.6 1.3 45.7 1.3 New EU Member States EU16- EU27 31.3 1 210.9 6.0 182.6 5.2 Other 98.1 3 131.9 3.8 122.7 3.5 Total persons 3,220.30 100 3,512.3 100.0 3,523.8 100.0

Source: CSO, various years. Quarterly National Household Survey. www.cso.ie By the second quarter of 2009, the total number of non-Irish nationals in the adult

population had fallen back to 445,00 or 12.6%, and the number of New EU Member

State nationals had fallen to 183,000 (5%).

Additional information on the stock of immigrants can be derived from data on

Certificates of Registration. A Certificate of Registration is issued by the Garda

National Immigration Bureau (GNIB) to lawfully resident non-EEA nationals who

expect to stay in the State for more than three months. It verifies that the person has

registered with their registration officer. The Certificate of Registration contains the

person’s photo, registration number, relevant immigration stamp, and an expiry date.

A Certificate of Registration card contains one of a number of different immigration

stamps.

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Table 6: Certificates of Registration, 2007 and 2008

Stamp

Category 2007 2008 % change

1 Issued to non-EEA nationals who have an employment permit or business permission. 31472 31944 1.5

1A Issued to non-EEA nationals permitted to remain in Ireland for the purpose of full time training with a named body until a specified date. Other employment is not allowed. - 67 67

2 Issued to non-EEA national students who are permitted to work under certain conditions. 36019 41097 14.1

2A Issued to non-EEA national students who are not permitted to work. 3701 3845 3.9

3 Issued to non-EEA nationals who are not permitted to work. 17220 17437 1.3

4 Issued to people who are permitted to work without needing an employment permit or business permission: Non-EU EEA nationals; Spouses and dependants of Irish and EEA nationals; People who have permission to remain on the basis of parentage of an Irish child; Convention and Programme refugees; People granted leave to remain; Non-EEA nationals on intra-company transfer; Temporary registered doctors; Non-EEA nationals who have working visas or work authorisations. 63748 63658 - 0.1

4 EU FAM Issued to non-EEA national family members of EU citizens who have exercised their right to move to and live in Ireland under the European Communities (Free Movement of Persons) Regulations 2006. People holding this stamp are permitted to work without needing an employment permit or business permission, and they can apply for a residence card under the 2006 Regulations. 1660 3723 124.3

5 Issued to non-EEA nationals who have lived in Ireland for at least eight years and who have been permitted by the Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform to remain in Ireland without condition as to time. Holders of this stamp do not need an employment permit or business permission in order to work. 149 218 46.3

6 Can be placed on the foreign passport of an Irish citizen who has dual citizenship, and who wants their entitlement to remain in Ireland to be endorsed on their foreign passport. 17 26 52.9

Unrecorded 1260 2028 60.9A 6 2B 1 -

Total 155253 164045 5.7Source: Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform.

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In 2008 there were a total of 164,045 persons registered with GNIB, an increase of

almost 6% above the previous year. There was a sharp increase in the number of

cards issued in respect reunification of non-EEA family members of EU citizens,

albeit off a relatively small base figure in 2007.

Table 7 shows country of origin data for the 10 largest groups of Certificates of Registration in 2007 and 2008. Table 7: Certificates of Registration by Country of Origin, 2007 and 2008

2007 2008 Country of Origin Number Registered Country of Origin Number Registered 1st India 15,484 India 18,018 2nd China 15,056 China 15,624 3rd Nigeria 13,358 Nigeria 14,401 4th Philippines 11,596 Philippines 12,218 5th America 10,896 America 11,302 6th Brazil 6,817 Brazil 10,385 7th Pakistan 6,782 Pakistan 7,221 8th Romania 6,297 South African 5,843 9th South Africa 5,652 Australian 5,331 10th Australia 5,598 Mauritius 5,016

Source: Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform Citizenship In 2008, a total of 10,885 applications for naturalisation were received.4 During the year

7,827 applications were processed and 3,117 certificates of naturalisation were issued.

4 Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform, 2009, Annual Report, 2008.

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III. Inward Migration Overall Trends As we have already seen, inward migration increased until 2007 and has since

declined. The gross migratory inflow increased from around 20,000-25,000 per

annum in the late 1980s to almost 110,000 in the year to April 2007, before declining

with the deterioration in the labour market to less than 84,000 in 2008 and 57,000 in

the year to April 2009.

Table 8: Estimated Immigration by Nationality, 1996 – 2009

Irish UK

EU 13 (EU15 excl IE and UK) EU 16-27 USA

Rest of World Total

1,000's 1996 17.7 8.3 5.0 0.0 4.0 4.2 39.2 1997 20.8 8.4 5.5 0.0 4.2 5.5 44.5 1998 24.3 8.6 6.1 0.0 2.3 4.7 46.0 1999 26.7 8.2 6.9 0.0 2.5 4.5 48.9 2000 24.8 8.4 8.2 0.0 2.5 8.6 52.6 2001 26.3 9.0 6.5 0.0 3.7 13.6 59.0 2002 27.0 7.4 8.1 0.0 2.7 21.7 66.9 2003 17.6 9.1 8.8 0.0 2.1 22.4 60.0 2004 16.7 7.4 13.3 0.0 2.3 18.8 58.5 2005 18.5 8.9 9.3 34.1 2.1 11.6 84.6 2006 18.9 9.9 12.7 49.9 1.7 14.7 107.8 20071 20.0 5.9 10.4 52.7 2.8 17.8 109.5 20081 16.2 7.0 8.6 33.7 2.0 16.3 83.8 20091 18.4 4.4 8.6 13.5 1.1 11.3 57.3

%

1996 45.2 21.2 12.8 0.0 10.2 10.7 100.0 1997 46.7 18.9 12.4 0.0 9.4 12.4 100.0 1998 52.8 18.7 13.3 0.0 5.0 10.2 100.0 1999 54.6 16.8 14.1 0.0 5.1 9.2 100.0 2000 47.1 16.0 15.6 0.0 4.8 16.3 100.0 2001 44.6 15.3 11.0 0.0 6.3 23.1 100.0 2002 40.4 11.1 12.1 0.0 4.0 32.4 100.0 2003 29.3 15.2 14.7 0.0 3.5 37.3 100.0 2004 28.5 12.6 22.7 0.0 3.9 32.1 100.0 2005 21.9 10.5 11.0 40.3 2.5 13.7 100.0 2006 17.5 9.2 11.8 46.3 1.6 13.6 100.0 2007 18.3 5.4 9.5 48.1 2.6 16.3 100.0 2008 19.3 8.4 10.3 40.2 2.4 19.5 100.0 2009 32.1 7.7 15.0 23.6 1.9 19.7 100.0 Note: 1 Preliminary

Source: 1996-2003: CSO Population and Migration Estimates , various years; 2004-2009: CSO Population and Migration Estimates April 2009

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The decline in inward flows was particularly marked among nationals from the new EU

NMS, whose numbers fell from 53,000 in the year to April 2007 to less than 14,000 in the

year to April 2009. Nationals of the EU12 NMS accounted for 48% of all immigrants to

Ireland in 2007 but only 24% in 2009.

Table 9. Estimated Immigration Flows classified by Age, 1991-2009 End April 0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+ Total 1,000s Persons

1991 5.2 9.3 14.6 2.5 1.7 33.3 1992 6.2 12.5 16.5 4.1 1.4 40.7 1993 5.6 10.3 14.5 3.6 0.8 34.7 1994 4.4 9.7 12.1 3.1 0.9 30.1 1995 5.3 8.0 14.6 2.6 0.7 31.2 1996 6.6 10.9 16.9 3.6 1.2 39.2 1997 6.4 13.8 18.2 4.7 1.5 44.5 1998 7.5 12.4 19.9 4.3 1.8 46.0 1999 7.0 15.3 21.5 4.1 0.9 48.9 2000 7.1 16.8 23.4 4.0 1.2 52.6 2001 7.9 16.4 29.5 4.3 0.8 59.0 2002 7.0 19.8 35.2 4.2 0.8 66.9 2003 7.3 17.5 28.8 5.1 1.3 60.0 2004 6.1 18.7 28.8 4.2 0.7 58.5 2005 8.0 24.2 44.8 6.1 1.2 84.6 2006 11.5 31.6 57.2 6.1 1.4 107.8 2007 11.7 30.3 59.8 6.9 0.9 109.5 2008 13.6 23.7 39.2 5.8 1.5 83.8 2009 5.9 16.3 29.8 3.9 1.4 57.3

Males

1991 2.7 4.5 8.0 1.4 0.9 17.6 1996 3.1 4.2 8.7 2.2 0.6 18.8 2001 4.1 6.6 16.3 2.5 0.5 30.1 2007 5.6 13.4 33.6 4.3 0.6 57.4 2008 6.6 10.3 19.0 3.4 0.6 39.9 2009 2.8 6.4 16.3 2.1 0.6 28.2

Females

1991 2.6 4.8 6.5 1.1 0.8 15.8 1996 3.6 6.7 8.1 1.3 0.6 20.4 2001 3.8 9.8 13.2 1.8 0.3 29.0 2006 6.0 15.2 23.2 2.4 0.7 47.5 2007 6.1 16.9 26.2 2.7 0.3 52.4 2008 7.0 13.4 20.2 2.4 0.9 43.9 2009 3.0 9.9 13.5 1.8 0.9 29.1

Source: CSO Population and Migration Estimates, various years

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The absolute number of Irish nationals returning peaked at 27,000 in 2002. At this

point returning Irish nationals represented 40% of all immigrants. In 2007, the

number of Irish immigrants was 16,000, representing just 19% of the total. The inflow

of Irish nationals increased to 32% in 2009. Inflows from non-EEA countries have

dropped steadily since 2004, reflecting current Irish policy of seeking to meet labour

needs form within the enlarged EU.

The estimates for the year to April 2009 indicate that about 8% of the total inflow was

UK nationals; about 2% were citizens of the US; while almost 20% were from other

countries. Immigrants from the rest of the world (other than the EU or USA) peaked

at 22,000 (37%) in 2003. However, the share of this group fell to just under 14% in

2009. The number of immigrants from the rest of the world continued to decrease, to

11,000 in 2009, although their share of the gross inflow increased, to almost 20%.

In terms of age distribution, the decline in immigrant numbers can be observed in each age

group. Those aged 25-44 years currently constitute over 50% of the total inflow, a

proportion that has increased in recent years (see Table 9). Almost 30% of the gross inflow

relates to young people aged 15 to 24 years. Around 10% of inward migrants in 2009 were

children aged less than 15 years. This proportion declined in the year to April 2009,

reversing an earlier trend and suggesting that immigrants with families may be less willing

to risk migration into a labour market in crisis. Immigrants in the age group 45 years and

over currently make up less than 9% of the inflow.

Table 10: Personal Public Service Numbers Issued by Nationality, 2003-2008 Ireland Non-Irish

National Total

1,000s 2003 86.9 104.7 191.6 2004 86.7 133.3 220.0 2005 80.2 191.0 271.2 2006 80.8 231.1 311.9 2007 87.6 218.0 305.6 2008 91.3 156.1 247.4 Source: www.welfare.ie The Irish Department of Social and Family Affairs issues Personal Public Service

Numbers (PPSN) which are necessary for employment. The number of such PPSNs

issued to non Irish nationals increased from 105,000 in 2002 to over 230, 000 in 2006,

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and then fell to 218,000 in 2007 and 156,000 in 2008. An analysis by the Central

Statistics Office that compares PPSN allocations and employer end-of-year (P45)

returns to the Revenue Commissioners for non-Irish nationals reveals the extent to

which those allocated PPS numbers took up and retained insurable employment over

time.5 The analysis shows that only 45% of those allocated a PPSN in 2004 showed

employment activity in 2007. For those allocated a PPSN in the earlier period (i.e. the

year 2002) about one in three had some level of insurable employment in 2007. This

reflects a pattern of declining employment participation over time, but the rate of

decline appears to level off after about 4 years. For example, almost 60% of those

allocated PPS numbers in 2002 were recorded as having been in employment in 2002.

This proportion employed fell to 35% in 2005, 34% in 2006 and 33% in 2007.

Among nationals of the NMS, the employment rate started off very high (over 70%)

in 2004 and fell off more slowly than in respect of other nationalities – 55% of NMS

nationals allocated PPSNs in 2004 were economically active in 2007, compared to the

average of 45% for all nationalities. These data on inflow and employment of

immigrants around the period of EU enlargement highlight the need for caution in

using data on registrations for the purposes of job search to make inferences about the

size and duration of migration flows and their impact on the labour market.

Inflows of Workers from Non-EEA Countries It is possible to derive information on the trends in the numbers of non-EEA

nationals6 entering the country to take up employment by analysing the annual figures

for the numbers of employment permits issued and renewed by the Department of

Enterprise, Trade and Employment. This programme is based on the provisions of the

2003 Employment Permits Act and, since January 2007, the 2006 Employment

Permits Act.7 Work and employment permits apply to all engagements for financial

gain involving non-EEA citizens, including those of short duration. The system is

employer-based and the initiative must be taken by the employer in the first instance

to obtain the permit prior to the entry of the employee into the State. The application

5 Central Statistics Office, 2009, Foreign Nationals: PPSN Allocations and Employment, 2007. 6 EU citizens and citizens of Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein do not require Employment Permits in order to take up employment in Ireland. 7 It was previously based on the Aliens Act 1935.

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must relate to a specific job and to a named individual. In the period leading up to EU

enlargement on 1 May 2004 the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment, in

accordance with the EU Accession Treaty, encouraged employers to source their

potential work permit requirements from the EU-25 countries.

Table 11. Employment Permits Issued and Renewed, 1998-2008 Year Permits Issued Permits Renewed Total Percentage Renewed 1998 3,830 1,886 5,716 42.0 1999 4,597 1,660 6,262 29.0 2000 15,735 2,271 18,006 36.3 2001 29,951 6,485 36,446 36.0 2002 23,759 16,562 40,321 45.4 2003 22,512 25,039 47,551 62.1 2004 10,821 23,246 34,067 48.9 2005 8,166 18,970 27,134 55.7 2006 8,524 16,600 24,854 61.1 2007 10,147 13,457 23,604 54.1 2008 8,481 5,086 13,567 21.5 Note: The percentage renewed is calculated on the basis of the total permits issued for the previous year. Source: Department of Trade Enterprise and Employment website http://www.entemp.ie/labour/workpermits/ Until this century the number of workers entering the country with employment

permits was small, and did not change very much over the years. Many of those

involved tended to be skilled and working in multinational enterprises, in the medical

sphere or in a self-employed capacity in the catering area. However, as Table 11

shows, the number of permits increased rapidly from just under 6,000 in 1998 to over

47,000 in 2003. Following EU enlargement in 2004, and the implementation of the

new policy of meeting most Irish labour market demand from within the EU, the

number of permits dropped steadily. The decline was particularly dramatic from 2008

(23,604) to 2009 (13,567). The most dramatic fall occurred in respect of renewals of

work permits.

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Table 12: Employment Permits, 2007 and 2008 New Renewed Issued 2007 Green Cards 2974 NA 2974 Work Permits*/ Intra-Company Transfers/ Group permits/Training

5386 12234 17620

Spousal Dependent permits 1787 1223 3010 Total Permits 10147 13457 23604 2008 Green Cards 2175 NA 2175 Work Permits*/ Intra-Company Transfers/ Group permits/Training

4197 3139 7336

Spousal Dependent permits 2200 1879 4079 Total Permits 8571 5019 13590

Source: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment The number of Green Cards issued dropped from just under 3,000 in 2007 to 2,174 in

2008. They cover occupations offering a salary of €60,000 or more per annum, but

also include some occupations with annual salaries in the €30,000 to €59,999 range in

which skills shortages have been identified. The fall in the number of work permits,

Intra-Company Transfers (ICT) etc. was much more dramatic: from 17,620 to 7,336

in 2008. Work permits issued to spouses and dependents of certain categories of

employment permits were the only category of work permit to increase in 2008: just

over 3,000 permits were issued to dependent spouses in 2007 and 4,000 in 2008.

18

Table 13: Employment Permits Issued and Renewed by Country of Nationality, 2003-2008 (Major sending countries) 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 New

Permits Renewals Total Australia 1149 908 795 808 301 109 410 Bangladesh 1038 1009 623 666 128 149 277 Brazil 1554 1512 983 1173 366 235 601 Canada 304 269 294 348 166 46 212 China 1593 1284 963 1188 416 245 661 Croatia 235 141 127 112 33 23 56 Egypt 277 257 199 171 37 42 79 India 1030 1253 1805 4069 2313 1021 3334 Israel 22 19 95 175 92 8 100 Japan 209 235 195 208 45 20 65 Malaysia 1030 886 661 797 388 161 549 Mexico 49 39 37 125 22 8 30 Moldova 1043 849 541 534 82 126 208 New Zealand 658 550 473 484 164 60 224 Nigeria 84 60 77 138 92 59 151 Pakistan 830 846 691 813 209 153 362 Philippines 4042 4301 3286 3885 1006 1204 2210 Romania 2527 2113 1267 120 120 6 126 Russian Federation

1091

0

10

404 94 78 172

South Africa 2468 2031 1469 1461 453 299 752 Sri Lanka 155 144 142 187 53 31 84 Thailand 549 507 405 486 106 129 235 Turkey 466 1191 159 222 74 34 108 Ukraine 2866 2137 1476 1412 239 248 487 United States of America

961

927

897

1209 737 130 867

Zimbabwe 262 251 167 216 71 40 111 Total 47551 34067 24854 23604 8481 5086 13567 Source: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment www.entemp.ie

Table 13 shows the number of employment permit holders from 2003 to 2008 in

respect of the citizens of different countries with substantial numbers of permits.8

With exception of Nigeria and Romania, both of which registered a very modest

increase on a low base, the number of employment permits issued to citizens of every

other country in the table declined between 2007 and 2008.

8 The table distinguishes all countries for which the 2007 inflow exceeded 100.

19

Refugees and Asylum Seekers The number of persons entering Ireland as asylum seekers or persons seeking refugee

status has declined quite rapidly following legislative changes taken in recent years to

cope with the huge increase in the number of applicants from less than 40 in 1992 to a

peak of 11,600 in 2002 (Table 14). However, between 2002 and 2005 the number of

applicants fell sharply by over 7,000 or about 60 per cent. There were a total of 3,866

applications for asylum in 2008, the lowest since 1997. It should be recognized that

this annual influx for 2008 represents less than 7% of the estimate of total gross

inward migration in the twelve months to April 2009.

Among the factors influencing the decrease in recent years in the number of

applications for asylum are the provisions in the Immigration Act 2003 for carrier

liability for bringing an undocumented immigrant into the state, for fingerprinting of

all asylum applicants, for an increased duty on applicants to co-operate with the

asylum process, for the designation of safe countries of origin and for an accelerated

procedure for certain categories of applications deemed to warrant prioritisation.9

Table 14: Asylum Seekers 1992-2008

Year Number of Applications 1992 39 1993 91 1994 362 1995 424 1996 1179 1997 3883 1998 4626 1999 7724 2000 10938 2001 10325 2002 11634 2003 7900 2004 4766 2005 4323 2006 4,314 2007 3,985 2008 3,866

Source: Office of the Refugee Applications Commissioner. Available at http://www.orac.ie

9 These and other provisions of this Act were discussed in the report for SOPEMI for 2003.

20

Another important recent development that may have influenced the decrease in the

number of asylum seekers is the resolution of the issue relating to the citizenship of

Irish-born children. Prior to January 2005 the Irish Constitution guaranteed (without

qualification) the right of any person born in Ireland to become an Irish citizen. In

July 2003 the Government announced that immigrants could no longer seek residency

in Ireland based solely on their child’s Irish citizenship and suspended the processing

of residency claims lodged on that basis. It was argued that both within and outside

the asylum framework, large numbers of non-EEA nationals were traveling to Ireland

to give birth and thus securing an automatic right to Irish citizenship for their children

by virtue of birth within the State and prospective associated residency rights within

the State and/or the EU as an Irish-citizen parent. The Department of Justice, Equality

and Law Reform stated that this argument was supported by evidence that almost 60

per cent of female asylum seekers aged 16 and over were arriving in Ireland while

pregnant.10

A referendum was held in June 2004 on the question of a Constitutional amendment

to this automatic granting of Irish citizenship based by virtue of birth on the island of

Ireland. The referendum, was passed by a large majority, provides a constitutional

entitlement to citizenship only to a child who has at least one Irish-citizen parent. The

Irish Nationality and Citizenship Act 2004 was subsequently enacted and provides

that any person born in Ireland after 1st January 2005 to non-Irish parents will not be

entitled to be an Irish citizen unless one of the parents was lawfully resident in Ireland

for at least three out of the four years preceding the child's birth. Certain types of

temporary residence are excluded from reckonable residence, for example periods

spent as an asylum-seeker or student.

In January 2005 the Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform moved to

clarify the position of the non-Irish national parents of Irish-born children who had

applied for residency on the basis of their Irish child but had had their claims

suspended in 2003, and invited such persons to apply under the Irish-Born Child 2005

Scheme (IBC/05). This was a special scheme under which non-Irish national parents

10 Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform (April 2004) ‘Information note: Proposal for Constitutional amendment and legislation concerning the issue of the Irish citizenship of children of non-national parents’. Available at www.justice.ie

21

of Irish children could apply for permission to remain in the State. Almost 18,000

applications were submitted under the 2005 Scheme, with 16,693 applications

approved. In early 2007, a Scheme was announced for renewal of leave to remain

from non-national parents of Irish born children granted leave to remain under the

IBC/05 Scheme. Applicants who were successful have had their leave to remain

renewed for up to three years at which stage those qualifying will be eligible to apply

for full citizenship having held five years of legal residence in Ireland. In order to

qualify for a renewal an applicant must:

• Have been successful under the first IBC/05 Scheme, • Must have been living in Ireland with his or her child since being granted

permission to remain, and • Must have made every effort to become economically viable.

Processing of applications for renewal of this permission to remain in the State

commenced in January 2007. The closing date for receipt of renewal applications

from persons granted permission to remain in the State between 15 January 2005 and

31 March 2006 was 31 March 2008.11 By the end of 2008, some 14,261 applications

for renewal had been received, with 14,117 granted positive decisions and 102

applications refused. There were a number of legal challenges against refusal

decisions under the IBC/05 administrative Scheme. In November 2006, in a number

of test cases, the High Court overturned the Minister's decision refusing permission to

remain on grounds the Minister was required, but had failed, to consider the

constitutional and convention rights of the Irish-born children prior to making that

decision. In December 2007 the Supreme Court overturned the decision of the High

Court in relation to its findings in the series of test cases, (Bode [A Minor] -v-

Minister for Justice, Equality & Law Reform & Ors), which overturned previous and

recognised the fundamental power of the State to control the entry, residence and exit

of foreign nationals.

11 Quinn et al., 2008. Handbook on Immigration and Asylum in Ireland, 2007. Dublin: ESRI. Available at www.esri.ie.

22

Table 15: Applications for Asylum by Nationality 2003 to 2008

2003 2004 2005 Country No. Country No. Country No. Nigeria 3,110 Nigeria 1,776 Nigeria 1,278 Romania 777 Romania 286 Romania 385 DR Congo

256 Somalia 198 Somalia 367

Moldova 243 China 152 Sudan 203 Czech Republic

186 Sudan 145 Iran 202

Others 3,328 Other 2,209 Other 1,888 Total 7,900 Total 4,766 Total 4,323

2006 2007 2008 Country No. Country No. Country No. Nigeria 1,038 Nigeria 1,028 Nigeria 1,009 Sudan 308 Iraq 285 Pakistan 237 Romania 289 China 259 Iraq 203 Iraq 215 Pakistan 185 Georgia 181 Iran 205 Georgia 174 China 180 Other 2,259 Other 2,054 Other 2,056 Total 4,314 Total 3985 Total 3,866

Source: Office of the Refugee Applications Commissioner. Available at www.orac.ie.

Table 15 shows that Nigeria remains the stated country of nationality of the largest

number of applicants for asylum. In 2003 and 2004 nearly 40% of all applicants stated

that they were of Nigerian nationality. In 2008, over a quarter of asylum applicants

(1,009) were of stated Nigerian nationality. Applications from those listing Romanian

nationality ranked second in 2002-2004, but have declined following its accession to

the EU in 2007.12 Applications from stated nationals of Iraq, China and Pakistan have

entered the top five ranking countries since 2007 displacing Sudan, Romania and Iran.

The remaining applicants in 2008 came from a diverse range of countries and in most

cases the number applying from each country was less than 100.

12 After an initial rise in applications from Romanian nationals in January 2007, as from that month asylum applications from nationals of Romania and Bulgaria were deemed inadmissible for processing in the State due to citizens of both countries (and their family members) enjoying free movement rights as set out in the European Communities (Free Movement of Persons) (No. 2) Regulations 2006. The EU Treaty Protocol on asylum for nationals of Member States of the European Union, which provides that applications for refugee status from EU nationals shall be inadmissible for processing by another EU Member State except in very exceptional circumstances, was subsequently applied.

23

Joyce (2009) notes that during 2008 some 4,581 asylum applicants received decisions

or determinations in their cases from the Office of the Refugee Applications

Commissioner (ORAC), representing an increase of 10.3% on the number (4,152)

made in 2007.13 Of these cases finalised, 6% concerned cases where the

Commissioner made a recommendation that the applicant be granted refugee status.

Taken on a quarterly basis, asylum applications in Ireland peaked slightly in the third

quarter at 1,032 applications. Some 3,070 asylum decision appeals were received by

the Refugee Appeals Tribunal (RAT) during 2008, an increase of 10% on those

received during 2007. Decisions were issued by the Refugee Appeals Tribunal in

2,460 cases. Nigerian nationals represented the highest proportion of applicants

received by the Tribunal.14 Overall, 88% of recommendations made by the ORAC

were upheld by the Refugee Appeals Tribunal during 2008.

In a global context, in 2008 the UNHCR listed the number of individuals requesting

refugee or asylum status in the 51 European and non-European countries as having

increased by 12% year-on-year since 2007.15 Within these figures, among the 27

Member States of the European Union some 238,000 asylum applications were

lodged in 2008, representing an increase of 6% on 2007 figures.

During 2008 some 85% of asylum applications were made at the Office of the

Refugee Applications Commissioner and not at port of entry.16 Of the number who

sought asylum at places other than the office of ORAC, 8% sought asylum at ports.

In November 2008, and in response to a Parliamentary Question on changes to the

asylum system since the enactment of the Immigration Act, 2003, the Minister for

Justice, Equality and Law Reform stated that “5,799 asylum applications had been

withdrawn including 1,777 applications last year and a further 607 up to the end of

October this year”.17

13 Joyce, C., (2009) Annual Policy Report on Migration and Asylum 2008: Ireland. Dublin: ESRI, European Migration Network 14 Refugee Appeals Tribunal (2009) Annual Report 2008. 15 UNHCR (2009) Asylum Trends in Industrialised Countries 2008. Available at www.unhcr.org 16 Figures provided by the Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform in response to a parliamentary question from Labour Justice spokesperson Pat Rabbitte in April 2008, as cited in The Irish Times (30 April 2008) ‘Most asylum seekers already in State when making initial application’. 17 The Irish Times (17 November 2008) ‘Thousands of asylum applications withdrawn’. Available at www.irishtimes.com

24

During 2008, some 385 determinations were made in ORAC under the Dublin II

process compared to 368 in 2007 which represented an increase of 4.6%.

Table 16 shows decisions and recommendations to grant refugee status at first

instance and appeal stage from 1998 to 2008. The numbers peaked at just under

2,000 in 2002 but have fallen below 600 in recent years, reflecting, at least in part, the

decline in applications. The number of persons who are granted refugee status in

Ireland in accordance with provisions set forth in the 1951 UN Convention Relating to

the Status of Refugees tends to be comparatively small. Calculation of refugee

recognition rates that take adequate account of first instance and appeal stages are

inherently problematic because they involve the comparison of annual numbers of

applications and decisions, and the latter can relate to applications over a number of

years. Ideally the measure should view the first instance and appeal stages as one

integrated process and avoid double counting of individual applicants.

Table 16: Decisions/Recommendations to Grant Refugee Status at First Instance and Appeal Stage 1998 – 2008 Decisions/ Recommendations to

grant refugee status at first instance

Decisions/ Recommendations to

grant refugee status at appeal stage

Yearly Total

1998 128 40 168 1999 166 351 517 2000 211 394 605 2001 459 481 940 2002 894 1,097 1,991 2003 345 832 1,177 2004 430 708 1,138 2005 455 511 966 2006 397 251 648 2007 376 204 580 2008 295 293 588 Source: Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform/INIS. Cited in Joyce (2009).

25

Table 17. Refugee Recognition Rates 2004-2008* 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Total ORAC Recommendations 6878 5243 4244 3808 3926 Total RAT Completed appeals 6305 4029 1950 1878 2568 Positive ORAC Recommendations 430 455 397 376 295 “Positive” RAT Decisions** 717 514 251 203 293 Total Decisions/Recommendations 13183 9272 6194 5686 6494 Total Positive Decisions/Recommendations

1147 969 648 579 588

Recognition Rate ORAC 6.3% 8.7% 9.4% 9.9% 7.5% Recognition Rate RAT 11.4% 12.8% 12.9% 10.8% 11.4% Overall Recognition Rate 8.7% 10.5% 10.5% 10.2% 9.0% Source: Derived from Office of the Refugee Applications Commissioner statistics available at www.orac.ie; Refugee Appeals Tribunal 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005. Data related to EU Dublin Regulation cases are excluded. * These data include withdrawn/deemed withdrawn/abandoned cases as “negative” recommendations/decisions because comprehensive data excluding such cases are not published. ** Recommendations issued by the Refugee Appeals Tribunal to the Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform to overturn the decision of the Refugee Applications Commissioner are counted as “positive decisions”.

Table 17 provides estimated refugee recognition rates for the period 2004 to 2008

based on published statistics from the Office of the Refugee Applications

Commissioner (ORAC) and the Refugee Appeals Tribunal (RAT). These rates are

calculated on the basis of the total number of recommendations or decisions that

refugee status should be granted at first instance and appeal in any given year as a

percentage of the total number of recommendations or decisions made at first instance

or appeal in that year.18 The problem of double counting cases persists.

In June 2008 it was noted that during the year some 86 per cent of substantive appeals

against negative ORAC decisions regarding refugee status were turned down by the

Refugee Appeals Tribunal. When all types of appeal are taken into account, including

18 Cases finalised refer to those that are processed to the stage where the Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform is in a position to grant, or not to grant, a declaration of refugee status. Applications processed under Regulation (EC) No 343/2003 of 18 February 2003 (“The Dublin Regulation”) are excluded from these calculations. Applications that are withdrawn, deemed withdrawn or are abandoned are included in the calculations and are counted as negative recommendations/decisions; inadequate data are published to construct a rate excluding such cases.

26

accelerated appeals where no oral hearing is allowed, the refusal rate for last year rose

to 90 per cent.19

Certain key decisions or actions taken in the asylum and deportation process may only

be appealed to the High Court by way of judicial review.20 Statistics on applications

for judicial review of the decisions of the Office of the Refugee Appeals

Commissioner (ORAC), the Refugee Appeals Tribunal (RAT) and the Minister for

Justice, Equality and Law Reform in asylum related matters are published by the

Courts Service. During 2008 there was a overall reduction of 25% in applications for

judicial review (representing 1,379 cases) with a similar reduction in asylum-related

applications for judicial review. Some 785 applications for the judicial review of

decisions of the Office of the Refugee Applications Commissioner, the Refugee

Appeals Tribunal, and the Minister for Justice, Equality & Law Reform were made

during 2008, with 2008 figures regarding asylum-related judicial review applications

representing 57% of all judicial review applications. Overall some 1,465 orders were

made in asylum cases in 2008, representing a 79% increase on comparable figures for

2007.21

Family Reunification The Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform received a total of 408

applications for family reunification from recognised refugee status holders in 2008.

This represented an increase of 9.4 per cent per cent on similar figures for 2007.

19 NCCRI Bulletin (June 2008) citing article in The Irish Times (28 June 2008) ‘86% of Appeals to Refuse Refugee Status Turned Down’. Available at www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/0628/1214600743908.html. 20 Section 5 of the Illegal Immigrants (Trafficking) Act 2000 specifically provides that certain decisions made in the asylum and immigration processes cannot be questioned other than by way of judicial review. Section 5 of the 2000 Act also provides special rules for judicial review of such decisions. These rules are more stringent that the normal rules for judicial review. 21 Courts Service (2009) Annual Report 2008. Dublin: Courts Service.

27

IV. Outward Migration

Outward migration declined somewhat in the 1990s, but subsequently increased. Table 3

has already shown that the gross population outflow declined from 56,000 in 1990 to

25,000 in 1997. However, emigration has increased again in recent years, to over 65,000

in the 12 months to April 2009.

Table 18: Estimated Emigration Flows by Country of Destination, 1991-2009

End April UK Rest of EU 15 EU 12 USA Other Total Persons 1,000s

1991 23.0 3.1 -- 4.8 4.4 35.3 1992 16.9 7.5 -- 3.5 5.5 33.4 1993 16.4 7.3 -- 5.6 5.8 35.1 1994 14.8 5.5 -- 9.6 4.9 34.8 1995 13.3 5.1 -- 8.2 6.6 33.1 1996 14.1 5.1 -- 5.2 6.8 31.2 1997 11.6 3.8 -- 3.4 6.6 25.3 1998 11.8 5.9 -- 5.3 5.6 28.6 1999 11.2 5.5 -- 5.3 9.5 31.5 2000 7.2 5.5 -- 4.0 10.0 26.6 2001 7.8 5.6 -- 3.4 9.5 26.2 2002 7.4 4.8 -- 4.8 8.5 25.6 2003 8.6 6.5 -- 2.8 11.4 29.3 2004 7.1 5.0 -- 3.9 10.5 26.5 2005 7.9 4.9 0.8 3.3 12.7 29.4 2006 8.8 5.7 2.3 3.3 15.8 36.0 2007 10.1 3.2 7.0 2.9 19.0 42.2 2008 7.0 7.4 9.0 2.2 19.8 45.3 2009 11.9 6.6 22.9 3.7 20.1 65.1 Males 1991 12.2 1.4 -- 2.3 1.8 17.6 1996 6.7 2.2 -- 2.7 3.6 15.3 2001 3.4 2.0 -- 2.0 5.2 12.6 2006 4.5 2.4 1.0 1.6 9.3 18.7 2007 4.8 1.4 4.3 1.6 11.5 23.6 2008 3.7 3.0 6.0 1.7 13.3 27.6 2009 7.5 2.8 14.9 2.1 11.8 39.0

Females 1991 10.8 1.7 -- 2.5 2.7 17.7 1996 7.4 2.8 -- 2.5 3.2 15.9 2001 4.4 3.6 -- 1.5 4.3 13.6 2006 4.4 3.3 1.4 1.7 6.6 17.3 2007 5.3 1.9 2.7 1.2 7.5 18.6 2008 3.3. 4.4 3.0 0.5 6.5 17.7 2009 4.4 3.8 8.0 1.6 8.3 26.1

Source: CSO Population and Migration Estimates (various editions)

28

Destination and Nationality of Emigrants The destinations to which Irish migrants have tended to go have changed significantly

over time. The large numbers of emigrants who left in the early part of the last

century went mainly to North America. However, these flows came to an abrupt end

at the beginning of the 1930s because of the Great Depression that followed the Stock

Market crash of 1929. Employment opportunities in the United States dried up and

not only did the outflow cease, many former emigrants returned. From this point

onwards the great majority of Irish emigrants went to the United Kingdom.

Recent figures suggest that emigrants from Ireland (who at this stage are not necessarily all

of Irish nationality) now tend to travel to a much more diverse range of countries. Table 18

shows that in 1991 about 65% of those who emigrated went to the UK. However by 2009

the UK share had dropped to 18% while in the same year 35% went to the new EU

Member States, reflecting economic crisis. Another 30% went to the rest of the world

outside the EEA and USA.

Table 19: Estimated Emigration by Nationality, 2006-2009 2006 2007 2008 2009 1,000s Irish 15.3 13.1 13.4 18.4 UK 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.9 Rest of EU15 5.1 6.9 4.2 5.5 EU12 7.2 14.4 18.8 30.1 Rest of world 6.2 5.5 6.4 8.3 Total 36 42.2 45.3 65.1 Source: CSO, 2009 Population and Migration Estimates, April 2009 Unfortunately we do not know how much of the non-Irish national emigration reported in

Table 17 is represents return migration. However, Table 18, showing outward migration

by nationality, provides some information on this. In the twelve months to 2009

almost half of all emigrants were citizens of the new EU Member States and there was

a substantial increase in numbers between 2008 and 2009. This is of interest, firstly,

because it provides some indication of how migrants from the new EU Member States

are responding to recession. Secondly, given that the number of New Member State

(NMS) citizens emigrating from Ireland substantially exceeds the number emigrating

to the New Member States, it suggests that many citizens of the NMS are migrating

on to other destinations. Emigration of Irish citizens has also increased, to over

18,000 in 2009.

29

Age of Emigrants Irish emigration has always tended to apply predominantly to young people, even

though when economic conditions in Ireland are depressed, it can extend to the older

age groups. The most recent estimates available (Table 19) show that 44% of

emigrants in the year to April 2009 are in the 15-44 year age group, which represents

a substantial increase in their number and share of emigrants, and another 47% of the

gross outward movement relates to those aged between 25 and 44 years.

Table 20. Estimated Emigration Flows classified by Age, 1991-2009 End April 0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+ Total

Persons 1,000s

1991 4.6 19.9 10.5 0.4 0.0 35.3 1992 0.7 22.5 8.8 1.2 0.2 33.4 1993 1.1 23.6 9.1 1.2 0.2 35.1 1994 1.4 24.6 8.2 0.6 0.0 34.8 1995 1.2 22.6 8.5 0.8 0.0 33.1 1996 0.9 21.4 8.1 0.7 0.0 31.2 1997 0.3 19.4 5.6 0.0 0.0 25.3 1998 1.6 21.1 5.8 0.2 0.0 28.6 1999 0.0 23.1 7.6 0.3 0.6 31.5 2000 0.0 21.4 4.6 0.1 0.6 26.6 2001 0.0 21.2 4.4 0.0 0.7 26.2 2002 2.5 18.7 3.1 0.1 1.2 25.6 2003 0.9 17.0 8.8 1.3 1.2 29.3 2004 1.5 14.1 9.2 1.3 0.4 26.5 2005 2.1 14.3 10.6 1.5 0.9 29.4 2006 2.2 15.9 14.2 2.0 1.6 36.0 2007 1.3 16.6 19.3 2.7 2.3 42.2 2008 1.5 18.2 20.3 2.6 2.8 45.3 2009 1.2 28.8 30.4 2.6 2.0 65.1

Males 1991 2.3 9.5 5.8 0.1 0.0 17.6 1996 0.4 9.8 5.1 0.0 0.0 15.3 2001 0.0 9.9 2.4 0.0 0.4 12.6 2006 1.1 8.0 7.6 1.2 0.8 18.7 2007 0.5 8.2 11.7 1.8 1.4 23.6 2008 0.7 10.0 13.0 2.1 1.9 27.6 2009 0.6 16.4 20.0 1.4 0.6 39.0

Females 1991 2.3 10.4 4.7 0.3 0.0 17.7 1996 0.6 11.7 3.0 0.7 0.0 15.9 2001 0.0 11.3 2.0 0.0 0.3 13.6 2006 1.1 7.9 6.5 0.9 0.9 17.3 2007 0.7 8.4 7.6 0.9 0.9 18.6 2008 0.8 8.2 7.3 0.6 0.9 17.7 2009 0.7 12.4 10.4 1.3 1.4 26.1

Source: CSO Population and Migration Estimates (various editions)

30

Return Migration Some 961 persons were removed from Ireland during 2008, representing a 23%

increase in return migration (deportations, transfers and voluntary repatriations) from

Ireland year-on-year from 2007.22 Of these, 161 deportation orders to non-EU

countries were effected.

Regarding Dublin II Regulation transfer orders, 271 transfer orders were effected

during 2008, an increase of 20% on 2007 figures. The rate of effecting of transfer

orders signed in 2008 was 74%, compared with 62% in 2007. Some 475 formal

requests were made by the Office of the Refugee Applications Commissioner

(ORAC) to EU Dublin II Regulation States, with 294 concerning “take back” requests

and 181 concerning “take charge” requests. During 2008 overall determinations in

ORAC under the Dublin II Regulation increased by 4.6 per cent year-on-year, with

some 385 determinations. In response to a Parliamentary Question in November 2008,

the Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform stated that in the period from 2004

to 2008 a total of 1,019 people were transferred to the country where they first entered

the EU.23

Voluntary Assisted Return In 2008 in Ireland, 529 persons opted to be assisted to return home voluntarily, a

substantial increase from 2007 and 2006 when 417 and 238 persons sought

voluntarily assisted return, respectively. Of the 2008 figure, some 454 persons were

assisted to return by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and 75

persons received administrative assistance to return by the Department of Justice,

Equality and Law Reform. IOM continued to run a number of programmes related to

voluntary return during 2008: the Voluntary Assisted Return and Reintegration

Programme and the Voluntary Assisted Return Programme for Vulnerable Irregular

Nigerian Nationals (in conjunction with IOM Netherlands) until May 2008.

22 Joyce, C. (2009) Annual Policy Report on Migration and Asylum 2008: Ireland. Dublin: ESRI, European Migration Network 23 The Irish Times (17 November 2008). ‘Thousands of asylum applications withdrawn’.

31

Deportation There were 161 deportations to non-EU countries during 2008, with 271 transfers

under the Dublin Regulation.24 In response to a Parliamentary Question in November

2008 on changes arising after the enactment of the Immigration Act, 2003, the

Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform stated that between 2003 and 2008

some 8,486 deportation orders were issued and 2,118 implemented. The largest

number of deportations occurred in the first two years of the new rules with 591

deported in 2003 and 599 the following year.25

24 Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform (February 2009). ‘Minister Dermot Ahern Announces End of Year Asylum Statistics’. Press Release; The Irish Times (6 January 2009). ‘Applications for asylum continue to fall as departures of illegals rise 23%’. 25 The Irish Times (17 November 2008) ‘Thousands of asylum applications withdrawn’.

32

V. The Labour Market Labour Market Trends Recession After a period of exceptional and sustained growth from 1994 through the early years

of this decade, the Irish economy went into crisis in 2008. The crisis was precipitated

by the global financial crisis, but this lead rapidly to a bursting of the property bubble,

which in turn bankrupted the main Irish banks and generated a fiscal crisis of the

state, whose revenues had become overly dependent upon taxes on property

transactions.

Gross National Product (GNP) contracted by 2.7% in 2008 and is expected to fall by

8.7 per cent in 2009.26 As a consequence of this severe contraction, total employment

fell by 1.5% in 2008 and is expected to decline by about 8% in 2009. Employment

losses have been concentrated in construction and related sectors, but are nevertheless

widespread across the private sector. Unemployment increased from less than 5% at

the beginning of 2008 to 12.5% in autumn 2009. It also is expected to increase

further.

The recession and financial crisis have not only taken a very heavy toll on the Irish

economy, they have also led to a very rapid deterioration in the public finances.

Lower economic activity and employment, combined with over-reliance on property-

related taxes, which were used to fund rapid increases in expenditure, have led to a

dramatic shortfall of government revenue over expenditure. The General Government

Balance fell to -7.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2008, and even following

a series of emergency budgets, is expected to be close to - 13% of GDP in 2009 and

2010. The long-run implications for the economy and the public finances of

government actions to resolve the banking crisis through the National Management

Asset Management Agency (NAMA) remain uncertain. In response to the severe

fiscal crisis, government has introduced a series of expenditure cuts as well as tax

increases and a levy on public sector incomes. Further extensive austerity measures

are expected in the budget for 2010.

26 Barrett, A., Kearney, I., and Goggin, J., (2009) Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2009. Dublin: ESRI.

33

In this context, immigration declined from a high of 110,000 in the twelve months to

April 2007, to 57,300 in the twelve months to April 2009, while emigration increased

to 65,100 in the year to April 2009. As a result Ireland registered net outward

migration, of 7,800 in the 12 months to April 2009, for the first year since 1995. The

inflow from workers from the new EU Member States has fallen considerably over

the past year.

Table 21. Annual Estimates of Total Numbers at Work, Unemployed and Net Migration, 1983-2009

Year At Work Unemployed Labour Force Unemployment Rate

Net External Migration

1,000s % 1,000s 1983 1,144 181 1,325 13.6 -14 1984 1,122 204 1,326 15.4 -9 1985 1,099 222 1,321 16.8 -20 1986 1,095 226 1,321 17.1 -28 1987 1,108 225 1333 16.9 -23 1988 1,111 217 1,328 16.4 -42 1989 1,111 197 1,308 15.1 -44 1990 1,158 172 1,332 12.9 -23 1991 1,156 198 1,354 14.7 -2 1992 1,165 207 1,372 15.1 7 1993 1,183 220 1,403 15.7 0 1994 1,221 211 1,432 14.7 -5 1995 1,282 177 1,459 12.2 -2 1996 1,329 179 1508 11.9 8 1997 1,380 159 1,539 10.3 19 1998 1,506 128 1,633 7.82 17 1999 1,606 101 1,707 5.92 17 2000 1,684 80 1,764 4.51 26 2001 1,738 69 1,807 3.84 33 2002 1,769 82 1,851 4.45 41 2003 1,800 87 1,887 4.60 31 2004 1,852 88 1,940 4.53 32 2005 1,945 96 2,040 4.70 55 2006 2,035 98 2,133 4.59 72 2007 2,114 103 2,217 4.65 67 2008 2,113 127 2,240 5.66 39 2009 1,939 265 2,203 12.01 -8

Notes: (a) The data from 1983 to 1987 are taken from earlier editions of this report. (b) The Labour Force data are defined according to ILO concepts. (c) Labour Force data refer to April, immigration data to the year ending April.

Sources: (a) CSO Labour Force Survey (various releases) (b) CSO Quarterly National Household Survey (various releases) (c) CSO Population and Migration Estimates (various years) (d) Employment and Unemployment, 1998-2009: CSO, 2008, Quarterly National Household Survey: Revised Series Calender Quarters http://www.cso.ie/qnhs/calendar_quarters_qnhs.htm

34

Table 20 shows annual figures for employment, unemployment and net external

migration over an extended period from 1983 to 2009. The time series suggests a

strong association between Irish migration patterns and economic conditions,

particularly in the labour market. For example, the global downturn that occurred in the

early 1980s had a particularly severe impact on the Irish economy, resulting in the country

languishing in recession until well into the second half of the decade.27 By 1986 the

unemployment rate had reached over 17 per cent. This created a sharp divergence in labour

market conditions between Ireland and other countries, particularly the UK, which led to a

sharp rise in emigration. The net outflows were substantial at the end of the decade - almost

45,000 in 1988/89, or 13.0 per thousand of the population.

This position stabilised in the early 1990s. Unemployment decreased and the net

migratory balance hovered close to zero. The emigration option was less attractive

because of less favourable labour market conditions abroad. As a result, the pressure

of labour force expansion caused unemployment in Ireland to rise. This position was

compounded by a sizeable return flow of former emigrants. Even though employment

did not actually decline in Ireland during this period, by April 1993 the

unemployment rate had increased again to nearly 16 per cent compared with 13 per

cent in 1990.

The economic circumstances in Ireland in the period 1995-2000 improved. GNP

growth averaged almost 9 per cent and, as Table 20 shows, the estimated increase in

total employment in the same period totalled 389,000, or over 5 per cent on an annual

average basis. Even though the labour force continued to expand throughout this

period, this occurred at a much slower pace, and by April 2000 the unemployment

rate had fallen to 4.3 per cent. This unprecedented employment growth eventually

gave rise to significant labour shortages across many areas of economic activity, both

skilled and unskilled. One consequence of this was a rapid increase in the influx of

foreign workers. As the population figures have already indicated, these came not

only from the EU15 (the citizens of which enjoy freedom of movement within

Member States under EU law) but also from a wide range of other countries, mainly

under the terms of the existing work permit system. After 2004 there was a very

substantial influx of nationals of the New Member States (NMS) of the EU. The

rapid boom in the Irish economy ended around the turn of the century, although

27 Earlier SOPEMI reports contain more detailed descriptions of these events.

35

growth rates of around 5% per annum, well in excess of the EU average, were

achieved in most years between 2000-2006. The pace of employment expansion

fluctuated between 3 and 5% between 2000 and 2006 and fell to less than 3% in 2007.

During this period most of the employment creation was in construction and the

public sector, not sustainable in the long run. There was also strong employment

growth in the services sector, particularly in the financial and other business services

sector.

The Irish economy moved into recession in the first half of 2008.28 The slowdown

was initially apparent in the construction sector, which had expanded

disproportionately in recent years: in 2007 over 20% of male workers were in the

construction sector. The international credit crisis undermined house prices, which

had inflated very rapidly in recent years. Government revenues have been sharply

reduced by rapid decline in stamp duty taxes on the sale of houses, as well as

declining income tax revenue with falling employment, leading to a fiscal crisis of the

state. The recession has led to a dramatic and very rapid deterioration in labour

market conditions. Total employment fell by 1.5% in 2008 and is expected to decline

by about 8% in 2009. Employment losses have been concentrated in construction and

related sectors, but are nevertheless widespread across the private sector.

Unemployment increased from less than 5% at the beginning of 2008 to 12.5% in

autumn 2009. In response to this emigration has increased, immigration declined, and

Ireland returned to net emigration in 2009 for the first time since the mid-1990s.

Table 22: Employment and Unemployment by Nationality 2005-2008 2004 q4 2006 q2 2007 q4 2009 q2 2004-2008 2008-2009 Employment 1,000’s % change Irish nationals1 1,735.1 1,787.1 1,793.0 1,663.9 3.3 -7.2 Non-Irish nationals 164.4 289.7 345.8 274.6 110.3 -20.6 of which: United Kingdom 43.6 50.2 54.5 49.6 25.0 -9.0 EU15 excl. Irl. & UK 27.3 32.4 34.8 34.1 27.5 -2.0 Accession states EU15

to EU25 40.9 131.2 172.2 123.7 321.0 -28.2

Other 52.6 76.0 84.4 67.2 60.5 -20.4 Total persons 1,899.5 2,076.9 2,138.8 1,938.5 12.6 -9.4 % Non-Irish National 8.7 13.9 16.2 14.2 Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, various years 28 ESRI, Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2008

36

Table 23: Unemployment, Numbers and Rates, by Nationality, 2007 and 2009 2007 q4 2009 q2 1,000s % Rate 1,000's % Rate Irish nationals 80.3 4.3 213.8 11.4 Non-Irish nationals 20.7 5.6 50.8 15.6 of which: United Kingdom 4.4 7.5 7.2 12.7 EU15 excl. Irl. & UK 1.2 3.3 2.6 7.1 Accession states EU15 to

EU25 10.0 5.5 29.0 19.0

Other 5.2 5.8 12.1 15.3 Total persons 101.0 4.5 264.6 12.0 Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, various years Table 22 shows trends in employment by nationality between Quarter 4, 2004 and

Quarter 2, 2009. The number of non-nationals in employment increased from

194,000 in 2005 to 346,000 at the end of 2007, at the peak of employment and

immigration. This represented a very rapid increase, from less than 9% to 16% of

total employment, between 2004 and 2007. Over the 4 year period the number of

non-nationals in employment more than doubled. The growth in nationals of the New

Member States (NMS) was particularly strong: 321%. Thereafter, however,

immigrants began to lose their place in the Irish labour market. Total employment

fell by 9% between the end of 2008 and the second quarter of 2009. Employment

among Irish nationals fell by 7%; among non-Irish nationals employment fell by

almost 21%. In 2007, non-nationals accounted for over 16% of total employment; by

the 2nd quarter of 2009 this share had fallen to 14%. Citizens of the NMS experienced

the sharpest drop in employment: they lost 50,000 jobs, 28% of the number employed

in 2009.

The national unemployment rate increased from 4.5% of the labour force at the end of 2007 to

12% in the 2nd quarter of 2009. The rate among non-Irish nationals was higher, and increased

from 5.6% to 15.6%. In the 2nd quarter of 2009, citizens of the new EU member states showed

the highest unemployment rate: 19%.

37

Table 24: Employment by Nationality and ILO Economic Status, 2007 and 2009 ILO Economic Status In employment Unemployed In labour

force Not

economically active

Total

1000’s 1000’s 1000’s 1000’s 1000’s Q2 2009 Irish nationals1

1,663.9 213.8 1,877.7 1,201.3 3,079.

0 Non-Irish nationals 274.6 50.8 325.4 119.5 444.8 of which: United Kingdom 49.6 7.2 56.8 37.0 93.8 EU15 excl. Irl. &

UK 34.1 2.6 36.7 9.0 45.7 Accession states

EU15 to EU27 123.7 29.0 152.6 30.0 182.6 Other 67.2 12.1 79.2 43.5 122.7 Total persons

1,938.5 264.6 2,203.1 1,320.8 3,523.

8 Q4 2007 Irish nationals1

1,793.0 80.3 1,873.2 1,153.7 3,027.

0 Non-Irish nationals 345.8 20.7 366.5 118.8 485.3 of which: United Kingdom 54.5 4.4 58.9 37.1 95.9 EU15 excl. Irl. & UK 34.8 1.2 36.0 10.6 46.6 Accession states

EU15 to EU27 172.2 10.0 182.1 28.8 210.9 Other 84.4 5.2 89.6 42.3 131.9 Total persons

2,138.8 101.0 2,239.8 1,272.5 3,512.

3 Change, 2007-2009 Irish nationals1 -129.1 133.5 4.5 47.6 52.0 Non-Irish nationals -71.2 30.1 -41.1 0.7 -40.5 of which: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 United Kingdom -4.9 2.8 -2.1 -0.1 -2.1 EU15 excl. Irl. &

UK -0.7 1.4 0.7 -1.6 -0.9

Accession states EU15 to EU27

-48.5 19.0 -29.5 1.2 -28.3

Other -17.2 6.9 -10.4 1.2 -9.2 Total persons -200.3 163.6 -36.7 48.3 11.5 Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, various years The impact of the recession is more apparent in Table 24, which shows the most

recent results of the Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS), relating to the 3rd

Quarter of 2008. Total employment fell by 200,000 over the period: 129,000 among

Irish nationals and 71,000 among non-nationals, including almost 49,000 citizens of

new EU Member States. Unemployment increased by 163,000 overall, by 135,000

among Irish nationals and 130,000 among non-Irish nationals. This meant that

38

unemployment represented 11% of the labour force overall in the 2nd quarter of 2009,

11% among Irish nationals and 15.6% among non-nationals. UK nationals showed

unemployment rates of about 13%, those from the New Member States (NMS) about

19%, and nationals of non-EEA countries, 15%. Unemployment was lowest, at 7%

among nationals of the old 15 EU Member States

Overall, the slowdown in immigration and increased emigration has led to a decline in

the population of non-Irish nations of about 40,000, suggesting that this, at least as

yet, has not been as pronounced as the decline in employment. At present the

information on migration patterns of emigrants in Ireland is limited, although

population decline in Table 24 is consistent with the increase in emigration among

non-Irish nationals reported in Table 19 above.

Immigrants in the Labour Market Table 23 shows the distribution of those at work by occupation and country of birth in

2007. By this analysis immigrants represent almost 19% of total employment.

Overall, immigrants are less likely to be managers and administrators than natives,

but roughly equally likely to be professionals, associate professionals or technical

workers. Immigrants were more likely than natives to be engaged personal and

protective services and in the residual “Other” and not stated category.

Table 25: Occupation of Those at Work by Country of Birth, 2006 Irish EU14 EU15-27 Other All Non-

Irish All

% Managers and administrators 16.7 15.7 3.0 9.7 9.5 15.4 Professional 11.8 15.1 2.7 13.3 10.1 11.4 Associate professional and technical

8.7 12.5 1.8 15.1 9.3 8.8

Clerical and secretarial 12.9 11.5 6.5 7.4 8.6 12.1 Craft and related 14.2 12.5 20.7 9.9 14.8 14.3 Personal and protective service 10.7 12.2 13.5 17.9 14.1 11.3 Sales 8.6 8.5 9.4 8.6 8.9 8.7 Plant and machine operatives 8.1 5.7 15.9 5.3 9.3 8.3 Other (includes not stated) 8.4 6.4 26.4 12.8 15.4 9.7 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N 1,708.7 148.8 143.0 101.1 392.9 2,101.6 Share 81.3 7.1 6.8 4.8 18.7 100.0

Source: QNHS, 2007, Q2

39

The occupational distribution of immigrants from the old EU member states is

roughly similar to that of Irish nationals, although there is a greater proportion of

professionals among the former. However, the distribution of immigrants from the

New Member States is quite different, with a much greater concentration at the lower

end of the occupational structure. Thus, for example, 16% of immigrants from the

New Member States are plant and machine operatives (about twice the proportion

among natives) and 26% are in the “other” category, compared to 8% of natives. Note

that this does not necessarily reflect the educational attainment of immigrants from

the NMS, as they tend to work below their level of qualification in the Irish labour

market.29 The “other” migrant category includes all migrants born in non-EU

countries. This is quite a diverse group: it includes disproportionate shares of

professional and associate professional and technical workers at the top of the

occupational structure, but also includes a concentration of workers on personal and

protective services and in the “other” unclassified category.

Table 26: Employment Distribution by Sector and Nationality, Q2, 2009 Irish All Non-

Irish

Of which UK EU15* EU16-27 Other %

Agriculture, forestry and fishing 6.0 2.1 -- -- 3.5 -- Industry 14.3 16.8 13.8 11.8 22.8 12.3 Construction 12.4 16.8 13.6 3.5 26.8 9.8 Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

14.1 12.7 14.4 8.3 13.3 12.7

Transportation and storage 4.6 3.4 4.9 3.8 3.5 2.1 Accommodation and food service activities 4.6 14.2 4.9 17.3 15.2 17.5 Information and communication 3.2 2.9 4.9 7.3 0.9 2.9 Financial, insurance and real estate activities 4.9 3.1 6.5 7.3 -- 3.0 Professional, scientific and technical activities

5.1 4.5 7.3 9.6 2.6 3.4

Administrative and support service activities 3.2 5.3 3.6 8.3 4.7 5.8 Public administration and defence; compulsory social security

5.7 0.6 2.4 -- -- --

Education 6.7 2.9 5.9 5.1 0.9 3.4 Human health and social work activities 10.2 9.3 10.3 7.3 1.9 19.8 Other NACE activities 4.9 5.2 5.7 7.7 3.7 6.2 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Total Number (1,000’s) 1798.4 273.5 49.4 31.3 112.4 80.4 Source: CSO, QNHS, Q2, 2009. 29 Barrett, A., and McCarthy, Y., (2007) “The Earnings of Immigrants in Ireland: Results from the 2005 EU Survey of Income and Living Conditions”. Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2007

40

Table 26 provides a breakdown of the migrant workforce by broad NACE sector in

the 2nd quarter of 2009. Immigrants are distributed widely across the economy.

Industry and construction account for the largest shares of immigrants, although they

are not particularly disproportionately located in those sectors as both account for

large shares of Irish nationals also. The Construction sector experienced the largest

increase in the number of migrant workers up to 2007, and subsequently for a large

share of job losses. This sector currently employs almost 17% of non-Irish nationals

in the workforce, and almost 27% of nationals of the NMS, compared to 12% of Irish

nationals. Other Production Industries account for the largest share of non-Irish

nationals in the workforce: over 17 %.

Comparing the breakdown by sector with that of the native Irish workforce, migrant

workers are significantly over-represented in the Hotels and Restaurant sector. In

2009, over 14% of migrant workers were employed in this sector. This compares with

less than 5% of the Irish national workforce. This sector has the highest proportion of

migrant workers: one out of four workers in the sector is not an Irish national. By

contrast, non-Irish nationals are markedly under-represented in Public Administration

and Defence, where less than 1% of Non-Irish nationals are employed, compared to

almost 6% of Irish nationals. Non-Irish nationals are also under-represented in the

Education sector.

Non-EU workers are significantly over represented in the Health and Hotels and restaurant sectors. These sectors account for almost 40% of workers from outside the EU. Comparisons of the educational attainment and occupations of immigrants in the

labour force suggest that there is a mismatch between the educational attainment of

immigrants and their occupations. For example, Barrett and Duffy (2008) show that

immigrants to Ireland tend to be more highly educated than the native population,

although the educational profile of immigrants from the EU’s new members states is

closer to that of the Irish nationals in the labour force.30 They also find that, using

data form the Quarterly National Household Survey from 2005, immigrants are

significantly less likely to be in higher level occupations, even when account is taken

30 Alan Barrett and David Duffy, 2008 “Are Ireland’s Immigrants Integrating into its Labour Market?,” International Migration Review, VOl 9., No. 5.

41

of age, gender, education and experience. The largest occupational gaps were found in

respect of nationals of the EU’s new member states. While a part of the disadvantage

experienced by immigrants may be due to their recent arrival and a consequent lack of

location-specific human capital, this would be expected to decline over time, as

immigrants become assimilated in the local labour market. Barrett and Duffy used

data on date of arrival to investigate this but found little evidence that the immigrant

occupational disadvantage declines over time, particularly in respect of EU10

immigrants.

Barrett and McCarthy31 show that immigrants earn 15% less, on average, than

comparable native employees. The wage gap increases to 20% in respect of

immigrants from non-English speaking countries, and to 32% among those from the

new EU Member States. Immigrant women suffer a double disadvantage, with

earnings 14% less than those of comparable native females. Analysis of a much

larger national data set, the National Employment Survey, from 2006, by Barrett,

McGuinness and O’Brien, found an average wage penalty of 9% among all

immigrants, rising to 18% among EU10 immigrants. They also found that the

difference is higher at the upper ends of the skills and earnings distributions.32 Barrett

also shows that the aggregate impact of immigration of about 180,000 to Ireland was

to increase GNP by almost 6% in 2008, to increase GNP per worker by 1.7%,

employment by 4.4% and to reduce average wages by 7.8%, the latter due to the

impact of increased labour supply. 33

Quinn and O'Connell34, used data from the QNHS to show that the percentage of EU

workers in Ireland has increased markedly post enlargement in skilled and other

occupational categories. The percentage of non-EU workers employed in skilled and

other occupations fell in the period between 2003 and 2005. Non-EU nationals have

more or less maintained their representation among highly skilled workers. The

31 Barrett, A., and McCarthy, Y (2007) “The Earnings of Immigrants in Ireland: Results from the 2005 EU Survey of Income and Living Conditions”. Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter. 32 Alan Barrett, Seamus McGuinness and Martin O’Brien, 2008, “The Immigrant Earnings Disadvantage Across the Earnings and Skills Distributions: The Case of Immigrants from the EU's New Member States in Ireland.” ESRI Working Paper 236. Dublin: ESRI 33 Alan Barrett, 2009, “EU Enlargement and Ireland's Labour Market.”IZA Discussion Paper No. 4260. Bonn:IZA. 34 Quinn, E., and O'Connell, P., (2007), “Conditions of Entry and Residence of Third Country Highly-Skilled Workers in Ireland 2006”. European Migration Network. Dublin: ESRI. www.esri.ie

42

suggestion is that EU10 nationals are taking up positions in skilled and other

occupational categories rather than highly skilled occupations.

McGinnity and O’Connell35 analyse a special sub-set of QNHS data devoted to

discrimination to examine labour market disparities experienced by immigrants and

ethnic minorities. First, in relation to access to employment, they find a much higher

risk of unemployment for Blacks, and a higher risk for other immigrants from non-

English-speaking countries - Whites, Asians and Others - compared to White Irish,

but detected no difference between migrants from English-speaking countries and

White Irish in the risk of unemployment. However, they also found that non-Irish

nationals are three times more likely to report having experienced discrimination

while looking for work than Irish nationals, even after controlling for differences in

gender, age and education between the groups. Blacks and the small group of non-

English speaking non-White immigrants are particularly likely to report experiencing

discrimination while looking for work.

Second, in terms of discrimination in the workplace, i.e. among those who do have

jobs, two strong conclusions emerged. Immigrants from English-speaking countries

(most of them from the UK) do not differ from White Irish in terms of access to senior

positions, in wages (where data permitted that analysis) and in subjective experience

of discrimination in the workplace. Among those from non-English speaking

countries, they find no substantial differences between ethnic groups. In particular

there were no discernable differences between Blacks, Asians and Whites from non-

English speaking countries in terms of promotion or work harassment.

Russell et al. (2008) found that just over 12 per cent of Irish adults felt that they had

been discriminated against in the preceding two years on grounds such as family

status, gender, age and race.36 Rates of reported discrimination rose to 31 per cent

among those of Black, Asian or Other ethnicity and 24 per cent among non-Irish

nationals. The results show that the highest rates of reported discrimination occur

while looking for work (5.8 per cent) and in the workplace (4.8 per cent). The survey

35 McGinnity, F., and O’Connell P., (2008) Immigrants at Work: Ethnicity and Nationality in the Irish Labour Market. Dublin: ESRI and The Equality Authority.

43

showed that non-Irish nationals are more than twice as likely as Irish respondents to

report discrimination in the work place. Non-Irish national respondents were also

more than two times more likely to report discrimination when looking for work than

Irish nationals. When other variables are controlled in regression models, these

differences are maintained. The fact that non-Irish nationals experience more

discrimination than Irish nationals is not accounted for by socio-demographic or job

characteristics.

36 Russell, H., Quinn, E., King O’Riain, R. and McGinnity, F. (2008) The Experience of Discrimination in Ireland: Analysis of the QNHS Equality Module. Dublin: Equality Authority and ESRI. Available at www.esri.ie.

44

VI. Recent Policy Measures on Migration and Asylum in Ireland

Legislative Background

The basic legislation governing the entry and residence of non-nationals in the State is

the Aliens Act 1935 and the Aliens Order 1946 as amended, together with the

regulations implementing the EU Rights of Residence Directives which came into

effect after Ireland joined the European Union in 1973. Even though the 1935 Aliens Act

has been amplified from time to time through the introduction of Statutory Orders made under

that Act by the Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform, it remained until relatively

recently the only substantive piece of legislation relating to right of entry and residence for

non-nationals. The general perception was that there was little need to introduce changes in

view of the small number of immigrants and foreign residents involved. However, the rapid

increase in the rate of immigration of non-Irish nationals and the large influx of asylum

seekers since the mid-1990s created an entirely new situation. Arising from this, in 2008 the

Government published comprehensive new immigration, residence and protection

legislation to consolidate and expand existing immigration and asylum legislation.

In addition to the fundamental question of revising basic legislation, the Irish

Government has introduced a series of legislative measures designed to deal with

specific issues which arose as a result of rapidly changing circumstances. The

fundamental and specific legislation that has been introduced includes:

The Refugee Act 1996

The Immigration Act 1999

The Illegal Immigrants (Trafficking) Act 2000

The Immigration Act 2003

The Employment Permits Act 2003

The European Convention on Human Rights Act 2003

The Social Welfare (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2004

Irish Nationality and Citizenship Act 2004

The Immigration Act 2003

The Employment Permits Act 2006

The Criminal Law (Human Trafficking) Act 2008

45

The 1996 Refugee Act codifieds in law the provisions for dealing with applications for

asylum.37 It also provides the legal basis for the Office of the Refugee Applications

Commissioner (ORAC) and the Refugee Appeals Tribunal (RAT). These agencies,

while independent, operate under the aegis of the Department of Justice Equality and

Law Reform, which has primary responsibility for immigration policy. The 1999

Immigration Act re-instituted the process of deportation on a legal footing (after a

successful court challenge). The 2000 Illegal Immigrants (Trafficking) Act, as the

title indicates, deals with trafficking of immigrants, while the Immigration Act 2003

introduces carrier liability for transporting undocumented immigrants and contains a

substantial number of amendments to the 1996 Refugee Act. The 2003 Employment

Permits Act provides a separate and more comprehensive codification in law covering

issues related to work permits and working visas. The European Convention on

Human Rights Act 2003 makes the European Convention part of Irish law. The Social

Welfare (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2004 introduces a Habitual Residency

Condition (HRC) test for receipt of social assistance and Child Benefit. The

Immigration Act 2004 makes provision for the appointment of immigration officers

and specifies criteria for permission to land. Details of the 1996 Refugee Act and of

the legislative measures dealing with immigration and work permits introduced up to

2007 have already been given in earlier SOPEMI Reports.

The Employment Permits Act 2006

The Employment Permits Act 2006 was implemented in January 2007 and contains a

reformed system introduced with three elements:

1. A type of “Green Card” for any position with an annual salary of €60,000 or more

in any sector, or for a restricted list of occupations, where skill shortages have been identified, with an annual salary range from €30,000 to €59,999.

2. A re-established Intra-Company transfer scheme for temporary trans-national management transfers.

3. A Work Permit scheme for a very restricted list of occupations up to €30,000, where the shortage is one of labour rather than skills. Work permits applications will not be considered for a list of specified occupations, mainly low-skilled elementary and traditional manual craft occupations listed as ineligible for work permits.

37 Seeking asylum in this context is defined as in the 1951 UN Convention on Refugees.

46

The application for a Green Card does not entail a requirement for a labour market

test. The card is issued first for 2 years, and will normally lead to granting of long-

term residence, and holders are entitled to be accompanied by spouses and families.

Work permits can be granted for two years initially and subsequently extended for

three years. Either employers or employees may apply for employment permits and,

in an important new development, the Green Card or work permit is granted to the

employee, rather than the employer, with the intention of reducing the potential for

employee exploitation.

In April 2007 the Third Level Graduate Scheme was implemented providing that non-

EEA students who have graduated on or after 1 January 2007 with a degree from an

Irish third-level educational institution may be permitted to remain in Ireland for 6

months. The scheme allows them to find employment and apply for a work permit

or Green Card permit. During this 6-month period they may work full time.

The reformed system is part of the general policy of meeting most labour needs from

within the enlarged EU while allowing for high-skilled emigration from the rest of the

world. Generally it is anticipated that only the very highly qualified or highly specific

personnel will come to Ireland as employment permit holders in the future.

VII. Other Migration Policy Developments in 2008

Immigration, Residence and Protection Bill, 2008 The Immigration, Residence and Protection Bill was published in 2007 but fell with

the General Election and change of government in June 2007. In January 2008 the

Government published the Immigration, Residence and Protection Bill, 2008, an

amended version of the draft Immigration, Residence and Protection Bill, 2007 which

fell with the change of government after the general election of 2007. Like its

previous incarnation, the 2008 Bill seeks to codify, integrate and update various

pieces of previous legislative measures and would set forth a legislative framework

for the management of inward migration to Ireland.38

38 Joyce, C. (2009) Annual Policy Report on Migration and Asylum 2008: Ireland. Dublin: ESRI, European Migration Network

47

Set forth in the 2008 Bill are provisions to restate and modify certain aspects of the

law relating to the entry into, presence in and removal from the state of certain foreign

nationals and others, including foreign nationals in need of protection from the risk of

serious harm or persecution elsewhere.

The Bill proposes the first statutory basis for the issuing and revoking of visa

applications and a new system comprising different residence permits allocated

according to which category a foreign national falls into. It also outlines provisions

for a category of long-term residency for an initial period of five years under which

foreign nationals would broadly be entitled to the same rights of travel, work and

medical care and social welfare services as Irish citizens. Regarding protection

applications, the Bill proposes to repeal the European Communities (Eligibility for

Protection) Regulations, 2006. All functions currently being carried out by the Office

of the Refugee Applications Commissioner with regard to protection, including

subsidiary protection, would be carried out by the Minister for Justice, Equality and

Law Reform. Proposed changes include a shift to a single protection determination

procedure where all protection claims, including claims for both asylum and

subsidiary protection, would be examined under a single procedure and at first

instance. A significant change from previous legislation contained in the Bill is that it

allows for the summary removal of a foreign national without notice.

Regarding the detention and removal of foreign nationals, a significant change from

previous legislation contained in the Bill is that it allows for the summary removal of

a foreign national without notice. Foreign nationals may be detained pending removal,

and those under 18 years of age could be detained if they do not comply with a

condition imposed by an immigration officer or member of An Garda Siochána.

Regarding judicial review, the Bill proposes that the validity of any act, decision or

determination under the proposed act shall not be questioned otherwise than by way

of judicial review.39

39 Judicial review is the only mechanism for challenging/reviewing an immigration-related decision. Unlike protection decisions, the proposed legislation does not provide for an independent appeal in immigration related applications.

48

Regarding protection applications, the Bill proposes to repeal the European

Communities (Eligibility for Protection) Regulations, 2006. Under the Bill all

functions currently being carried out by the Office of the Refugee Applications

Commissioner (ORAC) with regard to protection, including subsidiary protection,

would be carried out by the Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform. The Bill

proposes a reformed system for processing applications for protection, and proposes

to repeal, inter alia, the Refugee Act 1996, the Immigration Acts 1999, 2003, and

2004, and section 5 of the Illegal Immigrants (Trafficking) Act 2000. Proposed

changes include a shift to a single protection determination procedure where all

protection claims, including claims for both asylum and subsidiary protection, would

be examined under a single procedure and at first instance. A Protection Review

Tribunal is proposed under the Bill and would effectively replace the Refugee

Appeals Tribunal.

The Criminal Law (Human Trafficking) Act, 2008 The Criminal Law (Human Trafficking) Act, 2008 was enacted in June 2008 and

sought to give effect to, amongst other measures, the Council Framework Decision of

2002 on Combating Trafficking in Human Beings; the UN Protocol to Prevent,

Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons, Especially Women and Children; and the

Council of Europe Convention on Action against Trafficking in Human Beings.

The Act creates separate offences of trafficking in children for the purpose of labour

exploitation or the removal of their organs, trafficking in children for the purpose of

their sexual exploitation and trafficking in adults for the purposes of their sexual or

labour exploitation or the removal of their organs. It also makes it an offence to sell or

offer for sale or to purchase or offer to purchase any person, adult or child, for any

purpose. Of note was the inclusion of a provision under which it becomes an offence

to solicit or importune a trafficked person for the purpose of prostitution.40 The Act

does not include a non-punishment provision as required by Article 26 of the Council

of Europe Convention on Action against Trafficking in Human Beings.

40 Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform (May 2008) ‘Ahern announces enactment of the Criminal Law (Human Trafficking) Act 2008’. Press Release. Available at http://www.justice.ie/en/JELR/Pages/Ahern%20announces%20enactment%20of%20the%20Criminal%20Law%20(Human%20Trafficking)%20Act%202008

49

The Employment Compliance Bill, 2008 The Employment Compliance Bill, 2008 was published by the Government in March

2008 and contained measures to strengthen the ability of the State to secure improved

compliance with employment legislation. It also contained measures to establish the

National Employment Rights Authority (NERA) and the position of Director of the

NERA on a statutory footing. The Bill was intended to increase penalties for certain

offences under employment legislation and certain other enactments (in most cases up

to €5,000 and/or 12 months’ imprisonment for summary offences and €250,000

and/or 3 years’ imprisonment for indictable offences); and to further amend

employment legislation (and certain other enactments) and to provide for related

matters, including underpayment of staff.

Immigration Act 2004 (Registration Certificate Fee) Regulations 2008 S.I. No. 336 of 2008, the Immigration Act 2004 (Registration Certificate Fee)

Regulations 2008 came into operation on 23 August 2008. The S.I. made provisions

for changes to the fee prescribed for registration certificates for non-EEA nationals in

Ireland under section 19 (1)(b) of the Immigration Act, 2004.

All legally resident non-EEA nationals who have entered the State with the intention

of residing in Ireland for a period of more than three months must register with their

local immigration registration officer. An immigration certificate of registration

(GNIB Registration Card) is issued by the Garda National Immigration Bureau to a

non-EEA national who so registers on payment of an appropriate fee.

Long-Term Residence Criteria Eligibility criteria for a category of Long-Term Residence were placed on the

Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform website during 2008. Persons who

have completed 5 years (60 months) legal residence in the State on the basis of work

permit conditions (i.e. 60 months of a Stamp 1 endorsement in their passport) may

apply to the General Immigration Division of the Department. If applications are

successful, an individual will be granted a residence permit with an exemption from

employment permit and business permission requirements for a period of five years.

Periods of residence in the State for the purpose of study; as a temporary registered

50

doctor, intra-company transfer or holiday working visa do not count for this

purpose.41 Long-term residence permits are granted at the absolute discretion of the

Minster for Justice, Equality and Law Reform. It is currently taking over two years

for an application for a long-term residence permit to be processed. During 2008 some

4,073 applications for Long-Term Residency were received, with 1,779 cases granted.

Policy Regarding Undocumented Workers In May 2008 in a Dail debate on the Immigration, Residence and Protection Bill 2008

at Committee Stage,42 the Minster for Justice, Equality and Law Reform stated his

intention to draft and publish an administrative scheme relating to foreign nationals

who were holders of work permits but have become undocumented and, thereby, are

unlawfully in the State. In addition it was noted that ‘Such arrangements must and

will be made prior to the commencement of the legislation’ and that ‘it is important

that this specific group has an assurance from the Minister prior to the

commencement of the legislation that he will address its members’ cases in a

humanitarian way.’ That same month, the Department of Enterprise, Trade and

Employment published a policy regarding a decision to ‘look favourably’ on

applications made by foreign nationals who are current employment permit holders

and who have been made redundant within the previous three months.43 In addition,

the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment also agreed to change published

regulations on the right of work permit holders to change employers, with certain

limitations. Work permit holders may now change employers, after a minimum of

one year with the same employer, provided that their new employment is within the

same economic sector which they are currently employed in or within another eligible

sector. Importantly, in both cases there no longer exists a labour market test

requirement.

41 Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform (2008) Permission to Remain for Non-E.E.A. Nationals. Available at http://www.inis.gov.ie/en/INIS/Pages/WP07000168. 42 Dail Debates (1 May 2008) Available at http://debates.oireachtas.ie/DDebate.aspx?F=JUS20080501.XML&Ex=All&Page=2

51

Children of Students The Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform indicated that from July 2008

children of international students will generally not be permitted to access State-

funded education, with this to be interpreted as the student being in breach of the

requirement of their residence permit to be self-sufficient. In rules published by the

Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform in mid-2008, first-time students

from outside the European Economic Area (EEA) who begin a third-level course in

Ireland in 2008 will be denied registration clearance by immigration authorities unless

they can confirm they are not accompanied by children “nor do they intend to have

their children join them later on”. If they are unable to do so, they will not be

registered unless the placement of the child in education has been approved in writing

either by the Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform or by the Department

of Education. In cases where the child has been attending a State school in Ireland for

at least some of the last school year, the child will be allowed remain in education

until the completion of the parent's course.44

Significant Case Law: The Metock Case Irish legislation transposing Directive 2004/38/EC45 provided that a national of a

third-country who is a family member of a Union citizen may reside with or join that

citizen in Ireland only if he is already lawfully resident in another Member State.

During 2008, several cases concerning third-country national spouses of an EU

citizen residing in Ireland were taken to the European Court of Justice (ECJ), headed

by the Metock case.46 The ECJ found that the Government should not prevent third-

country spouses of EU citizens from living in Ireland, with the ruling providing

residency rights to significant numbers of non-EU national spouses who have been

served with “intent to deport” notices by the Department of Justice, Equality and Law

Reform beginning in 2007. It also forced the Government to amend a 2006 Regulation

43 Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment (May 2009) Policy for persons on valid Employment Permits who have been made redundant. Latest version available at http://www.entemp.ie/labour/workpermits/redundant.htm 44 Irish Naturalisation and Immigration Service (July 2008) ‘Children of Non-EEA Students attending State Schools’. Available at http://www.inis.gov.ie/en/INIS/Pages/WP08000025. 45 Directive 2004/38/EC on the right of citizens of the European Union and their family members to move and reside freely within the territory of the EU. 46 Case C-127/08-Metock and Ors v Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform, Unreported, European Court of Justice, 25/07/2008; Unreported, High Court, Finlay Geoghegan J., 14/03/2008.

52

stipulating that third-country non-EU nationals married to EU citizens must have

resided in another Member State before moving to Ireland.

In July 2008 the Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform published the

European Communities (Free Movement of Persons) (Amendment) Regulations 2008

(S.I. No. 310 of 2008) amending the 2006 Regulations. The 2008 Regulations remove

from the 2006 Regulations the requirement that a non-EU family member must have

been lawfully resident in another EU Member State prior to applying for a residence

permit in Ireland, and thus brings Irish legislation into line with the ECJ’s ruling in

Metock.

53

Year Number Title/Author(s) ESRI Authors/Co-authors Italicised

2010 338 The Euro Through the Looking-Glass:

Perceived Inflation Following the 2002 Currency Changeover

Pete Lunn and David Duffy 337 Returning to the Question of a Wage Premium for

Returning Migrants Alan Barrett and Jean Goggin 2009 336 What Determines the Location Choice of

Multinational Firms in the ICT Sector? Iulia Siedschlag, Xiaoheng Zhang, Donal Smith 335 Cost-benefit analysis of the introduction of weight-

based charges for domestic waste – West Cork’s experience

Sue Scott and Dorothy Watson 334 The Likely Economic Impact of Increasing

Investment in Wind on the Island of Ireland Conor Devitt, Seán Diffney, John Fitz Gerald, Seán

Lyons and Laura Malaguzzi Valeri 333 Estimating Historical Landfill Quantities to Predict

Methane Emissions Seán Lyons, Liam Murphy and Richard S.J. Tol 332 International Climate Policy and Regional Welfare

Weights Daiju Narita, Richard S. J. Tol, and David Anthoff 331 A Hedonic Analysis of the Value of Parks and

Green Spaces in the Dublin Area Karen Mayor, Seán Lyons, David Duffy and Richard

S.J. Tol 330 Measuring International Technology Spillovers and

Progress Towards the European Research Area Iulia Siedschlag 329 Climate Policy and Corporate Behaviour

54

Nicola Commins, Seán Lyons, Marc Schiffbauer, and Richard S.J. Tol

328 The Association Between Income Inequality and

Mental Health: Social Cohesion or Social Infrastructure

Richard Layte and Bertrand Maître 327 A Computational Theory of Exchange:

Willingness to pay, willingness to accept and the endowment effect

Pete Lunn and Mary Lunn 326 Fiscal Policy for Recovery John Fitz Gerald 325 The EU 20/20/2020 Targets: An Overview of the

EMF22 Assessment Christoph Böhringer, Thomas F. Rutherford, and

Richard S.J. Tol 324 Counting Only the Hits? The Risk of

Underestimating the Costs of Stringent Climate Policy

Massimo Tavoni, Richard S.J. Tol 323 International Cooperation on Climate Change

Adaptation from an Economic Perspective Kelly C. de Bruin, Rob B. Dellink and Richard S.J.

Tol 322 What Role for Property Taxes in Ireland? T. Callan, C. Keane and J.R. Walsh 321 The Public-Private Sector Pay Gap in Ireland: What

Lies Beneath? Elish Kelly, Seamus McGuinness, Philip O’Connell 320 A Code of Practice for Grocery Goods Undertakings

and An Ombudsman: How to Do a Lot of Harm by Trying to Do a Little Good

Paul K Gorecki 319 Negative Equity in the Irish Housing Market David Duffy

55

318 Estimating the Impact of Immigration on Wages in Ireland

Alan Barrett, Adele Bergin and Elish Kelly 317 Assessing the Impact of Wage Bargaining and

Worker Preferences on the Gender Pay Gap in Ireland Using the National Employment Survey 2003

Seamus McGuinness, Elish Kelly, Philip O’Connell, Tim Callan

316 Mismatch in the Graduate Labour Market Among

Immigrants and Second-Generation Ethnic Minority Groups

Delma Byrne and Seamus McGuinness 315 Managing Housing Bubbles in Regional Economies

under EMU: Ireland and Spain

Thomas Conefrey and John Fitz Gerald 314 Job Mismatches and Labour Market Outcomes Kostas Mavromaras, Seamus McGuinness, Nigel

O’Leary, Peter Sloane and Yin King Fok 313 Immigrants and Employer-provided Training Alan Barrett, Séamus McGuinness, Martin O’Brien

and Philip O’Connell 312 Did the Celtic Tiger Decrease Socio-Economic

Differentials in Perinatal Mortality in Ireland? Richard Layte and Barbara Clyne 311 Exploring International Differences in Rates of

Return to Education: Evidence from EU SILC Maria A. Davia, Seamus McGuinness and Philip, J.

O’Connell 310 Car Ownership and Mode of Transport to Work in

Ireland Nicola Commins and Anne Nolan 309 Recent Trends in the Caesarean Section Rate in

Ireland 1999-2006 Aoife Brick and Richard Layte 308 Price Inflation and Income Distribution

56

Anne Jennings, Seán Lyons and Richard S.J. Tol 307 Overskilling Dynamics and Education Pathways Kostas Mavromaras, Seamus McGuinness, Yin King

Fok 306 What Determines the Attractiveness of the

European Union to the Location of R&D Multinational Firms?

Iulia Siedschlag, Donal Smith, Camelia Turcu, Xiaoheng Zhang

305 Do Foreign Mergers and Acquisitions Boost Firm

Productivity? Marc Schiffbauer, Iulia Siedschlag, Frances Ruane 304 Inclusion or Diversion in Higher Education in the

Republic of Ireland? Delma Byrne 303 Welfare Regime and Social Class Variation in

Poverty and Economic Vulnerability in Europe: An Analysis of EU-SILC

Christopher T. Whelan and Bertrand Maître 302 Understanding the Socio-Economic Distribution and

Consequences of Patterns of Multiple Deprivation: An Application of Self-Organising Maps

Christopher T. Whelan, Mario Lucchini, Maurizio Pisati and Bertrand Maître

301 Estimating the Impact of Metro North Edgar Morgenroth 300 Explaining Structural Change in Cardiovascular

Mortality in Ireland 1995-2005: A Time Series Analysis

Richard Layte, Sinead O’Hara and Kathleen Bennett 299 EU Climate Change Policy 2013-2020: Using the

Clean Development Mechanism More Effectively Paul K Gorecki, Seán Lyons and Richard S.J. Tol 298 Irish Public Capital Spending in a Recession Edgar Morgenroth

57

297 Exporting and Ownership Contributions to Irish Manufacturing Productivity Growth

Anne Marie Gleeson, Frances Ruane 296 Eligibility for Free Primary Care and Avoidable

Hospitalisations in Ireland Anne Nolan 295 Managing Household Waste in Ireland:

Behavioural Parameters and Policy Options John Curtis, Seán Lyons and Abigail O’Callaghan-

Platt 294 Labour Market Mismatch Among UK Graduates;

An Analysis Using REFLEX Data Seamus McGuinness and Peter J. Sloane 293 Towards Regional Environmental Accounts for

Ireland Richard S.J. Tol , Nicola Commins, Niamh Crilly,

Sean Lyons and Edgar Morgenroth 292 EU Climate Change Policy 2013-2020: Thoughts on

Property Rights and Market Choices Paul K. Gorecki, Sean Lyons and Richard S.J. Tol 291 Measuring House Price Change David Duffy 290 Intra-and Extra-Union Flexibility in Meeting the

European Union’s Emission Reduction Targets Richard S.J. Tol 289 The Determinants and Effects of Training at Work:

Bringing the Workplace Back In Philip J. O’Connell and Delma Byrne 288 Climate Feedbacks on the Terrestrial Biosphere and

the Economics of Climate Policy: An Application of FUND

Richard S.J. Tol 287 The Behaviour of the Irish Economy: Insights from

the HERMES macro-economic model Adele Bergin, Thomas Conefrey, John FitzGerald

and Ide Kearney

58

286 Mapping Patterns of Multiple Deprivation Using

Self-Organising Maps: An Application to EU-SILC Data for Ireland

Maurizio Pisati, Christopher T. Whelan, Mario Lucchini and Bertrand Maître

285 The Feasibility of Low Concentration Targets:

An Application of FUND Richard S.J. Tol 284 Policy Options to Reduce Ireland’s GHG Emissions

Instrument choice: the pros and cons of alternative policy instruments

Thomas Legge and Sue Scott 283 Accounting for Taste: An Examination of

Socioeconomic Gradients in Attendance at Arts Events

Pete Lunn and Elish Kelly 282 The Economic Impact of Ocean Acidification on

Coral Reefs Luke M. Brander, Katrin Rehdanz, Richard S.J. Tol,

and Pieter J.H. van Beukering 281 Assessing the impact of biodiversity on tourism

flows: A model for tourist behaviour and its policy implications

Giulia Macagno, Maria Loureiro, Paulo A.L.D. Nunes and Richard S.J. Tol

280 Advertising to boost energy efficiency: the Power of

One campaign and natural gas consumption Seán Diffney, Seán Lyons and Laura Malaguzzi

Valeri 279 International Transmission of Business Cycles

Between Ireland and its Trading Partners Jean Goggin and Iulia Siedschlag 278 Optimal Global Dynamic Carbon Taxation David Anthoff 277 Energy Use and Appliance Ownership in Ireland Eimear Leahy and Seán Lyons

59

276 Discounting for Climate Change David Anthoff, Richard S.J. Tol and Gary W. Yohe 275 Projecting the Future Numbers of Migrant Workers

in the Health and Social Care Sectors in Ireland Alan Barrett and Anna Rust 274 Economic Costs of Extratropical Storms under

Climate Change: An application of FUND Daiju Narita, Richard S.J. Tol, David Anthoff 273 The Macro-Economic Impact of Changing the Rate

of Corporation Tax Thomas Conefrey and John D. Fitz Gerald 272 The Games We Used to Play

An Application of Survival Analysis to the Sporting Life-course

Pete Lunn 2008 271 Exploring the Economic Geography of Ireland Edgar Morgenroth 270 Benchmarking, Social Partnership and Higher

Remuneration: Wage Settling Institutions and the Public-Private Sector Wage Gap in Ireland

Elish Kelly, Seamus McGuinness, Philip O’Connell 269 A Dynamic Analysis of Household Car Ownership in

Ireland Anne Nolan 268 The Determinants of Mode of Transport to Work in

the Greater Dublin Area Nicola Commins and Anne Nolan 267 Resonances from Economic Development for

Current Economic Policymaking Frances Ruane 266 The Impact of Wage Bargaining Regime on Firm-

Level Competitiveness and Wage Inequality: The Case of Ireland

Seamus McGuinness, Elish Kelly and Philip

60

O’Connell 265 Poverty in Ireland in Comparative European

Perspective Christopher T. Whelan and Bertrand Maître 264 A Hedonic Analysis of the Value of Rail Transport in

the Greater Dublin Area Karen Mayor, Seán Lyons, David Duffy and Richard

S.J. Tol 263 Comparing Poverty Indicators in an Enlarged EU Christopher T. Whelan and Bertrand Maître 262 Fuel Poverty in Ireland: Extent,

Affected Groups and Policy Issues Sue Scott, Seán Lyons, Claire Keane, Donal

McCarthy and Richard S.J. Tol 261 The Misperception of Inflation by Irish Consumers David Duffy and Pete Lunn 260 The Direct Impact of Climate Change on Regional

Labour Productivity Tord Kjellstrom, R Sari Kovats, Simon J. Lloyd, Tom

Holt, Richard S.J. Tol 259 Damage Costs of Climate Change through

Intensification of Tropical Cyclone Activities: An Application of FUND

Daiju Narita, Richard S. J. Tol and David Anthoff 258 Are Over-educated People Insiders or Outsiders?

A Case of Job Search Methods and Over-education in UK

Aleksander Kucel, Delma Byrne 257 Metrics for Aggregating the Climate Effect of

Different Emissions: A Unifying Framework Richard S.J. Tol, Terje K. Berntsen, Brian C. O’Neill,

Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Keith P. Shine, Yves Balkanski and Laszlo Makra

256 Intra-Union Flexibility of Non-ETS Emission

Reduction Obligations in the European Union Richard S.J. Tol

61

255 The Economic Impact of Climate Change Richard S.J. Tol 254 Measuring International Inequity Aversion Richard S.J. Tol 253 Using a Census to Assess the Reliability of a

National Household Survey for Migration Research: The Case of Ireland

Alan Barrett and Elish Kelly 252 Risk Aversion, Time Preference, and the Social Cost

of Carbon David Anthoff, Richard S.J. Tol and Gary W. Yohe 251 The Impact of a Carbon Tax on Economic Growth

and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Ireland Thomas Conefrey, John D. Fitz Gerald, Laura

Malaguzzi Valeri and Richard S.J. Tol 250 The Distributional Implications of a Carbon Tax in

Ireland Tim Callan, Sean Lyons, Susan Scott, Richard S.J.

Tol and Stefano Verde 249 Measuring Material Deprivation in the Enlarged EU Christopher T. Whelan, Brian Nolan and Bertrand

Maître 248 Marginal Abatement Costs on Carbon-Dioxide

Emissions: A Meta-Analysis Onno Kuik, Luke Brander and Richard S.J. Tol 247 Incorporating GHG Emission Costs in the Economic

Appraisal of Projects Supported by State Development Agencies

Richard S.J. Tol and Seán Lyons 246 A Carton Tax for Ireland Richard S.J. Tol, Tim Callan, Thomas Conefrey,

John D. Fitz Gerald, Seán Lyons, Laura Malaguzzi Valeri and Susan Scott

245 Non-cash Benefits and the Distribution of Economic Welfare

Tim Callan and Claire Keane

62

244 Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation

Karen Mayor and Richard S.J. Tol 243 The Effect of the Euro on Export Patterns: Empirical

Evidence from Industry Data Gavin Murphy and Iulia Siedschlag 242 The Economic Returns to Field of Study and

Competencies Among Higher Education Graduates in Ireland

Elish Kelly, Philip O’Connell and Emer Smyth 241 European Climate Policy and Aviation Emissions Karen Mayor and Richard S.J. Tol 240 Aviation and the Environment in the Context of the

EU-US Open Skies Agreement Karen Mayor and Richard S.J. Tol 239 Yuppie Kvetch? Work-life Conflict and Social Class

in Western Europe Frances McGinnity and Emma Calvert 238 Immigrants and Welfare Programmes: Exploring

the Interactions between Immigrant Characteristics, Immigrant Welfare Dependence and Welfare Policy

Alan Barrett and Yvonne McCarthy 237 How Local is Hospital Treatment? An Exploratory

Analysis of Public/Private Variation in Location of Treatment in Irish Acute Public Hospitals

Jacqueline O’Reilly and Miriam M. Wiley 236 The Immigrant Earnings Disadvantage Across the

Earnings and Skills Distributions: The Case of Immigrants from the EU’s New Member States in Ireland

Alan Barrett, Seamus McGuinness and Martin O’Brien

235 Europeanisation of Inequality and European

Reference Groups Christopher T. Whelan and Bertrand Maître 234 Managing Capital Flows: Experiences from Central

63

and Eastern Europe Jürgen von Hagen and Iulia Siedschlag 233 ICT Diffusion, Innovation Systems, Globalisation

and Regional Economic Dynamics: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Charlie Karlsson, Gunther Maier, Michaela Trippl, Iulia Siedschlag, Robert Owen and Gavin Murphy

232 Welfare and Competition Effects of Electricity

Interconnection between Great Britain and Ireland Laura Malaguzzi Valeri 231 Is FDI into China Crowding Out the FDI into the

European Union? Laura Resmini and Iulia Siedschlag 230 Estimating the Economic Cost of Disability in

Ireland John Cullinan, Brenda Gannon and Seán Lyons 229 Controlling the Cost of Controlling the Climate: The

Irish Government’s Climate Change Strategy Colm McCarthy, Sue Scott 228 The Impact of Climate Change on the Balanced-

Growth-Equivalent: An Application of FUND David Anthoff, Richard S.J. Tol 227 Changing Returns to Education During a Boom?

The Case of Ireland Seamus McGuinness, Frances McGinnity, Philip

O’Connell 226 ‘New’ and ‘Old’ Social Risks: Life Cycle and Social

Class Perspectives on Social Exclusion in Ireland Christopher T. Whelan and Bertrand Maître 225 The Climate Preferences of Irish Tourists by

Purpose of Travel Seán Lyons, Karen Mayor and Richard S.J. Tol 224 A Hirsch Measure for the Quality of Research

Supervision, and an Illustration with Trade Economists

Frances P. Ruane and Richard S.J. Tol

64

223 Environmental Accounts for the Republic of Ireland:

1990-2005 Seán Lyons, Karen Mayor and Richard S.J. Tol 2007 222 Assessing Vulnerability of Selected Sectors under

Environmental Tax Reform: The issue of pricing power

J. Fitz Gerald, M. Keeney and S. Scott 221 Climate Policy Versus Development Aid

Richard S.J. Tol 220 Exports and Productivity – Comparable Evidence for

14 Countries The International Study Group on Exports and

Productivity 219 Energy-Using Appliances and Energy-Saving

Features: Determinants of Ownership in Ireland Joe O’Doherty, Seán Lyons and Richard S.J. Tol 218 The Public/Private Mix in Irish Acute Public

Hospitals: Trends and Implications Jacqueline O’Reilly and Miriam M. Wiley

217 Regret About the Timing of First Sexual

Intercourse: The Role of Age and Context Richard Layte, Hannah McGee

216 Determinants of Water Connection Type and

Ownership of Water-Using Appliances in Ireland Joe O’Doherty, Seán Lyons and Richard S.J. Tol

215 Unemployment – Stage or Stigma?

Being Unemployed During an Economic Boom Emer Smyth

214 The Value of Lost Load Richard S.J. Tol 213 Adolescents’ Educational Attainment and School

Experiences in Contemporary Ireland Merike Darmody, Selina McCoy, Emer Smyth

65

212 Acting Up or Opting Out? Truancy in Irish

Secondary Schools Merike Darmody, Emer Smyth and Selina McCoy

211 Where do MNEs Expand Production: Location

Choices of the Pharmaceutical Industry in Europe after 1992 Frances P. Ruane, Xiaoheng Zhang

210 Holiday Destinations: Understanding the Travel

Choices of Irish Tourists Seán Lyons, Karen Mayor and Richard S.J. Tol

209 The Effectiveness of Competition Policy and the

Price-Cost Margin: Evidence from Panel Data Patrick McCloughan, Seán Lyons and William Batt

208 Tax Structure and Female Labour Market

Participation: Evidence from Ireland Tim Callan, A. Van Soest, J.R. Walsh