workshop on future water supplies in arizona june 21, 2006 water and growth: future supplies for...
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Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006
Water and Growth:Future Supplies for Central Arizona
Global Institute for Sustainability
Arizona State University
Water Resources Research Center 2006 Annual Conference
June 20-21, 2006
Terri Sue Rossi Central Arizona Project
Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006
Objective
• Present highlights of GIOS paper
• Lay a foundation for issues discussion
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau 1900 to 2000; Arizona Department of Economic Security 2010 to 2050 (April 2006 Projections); Global Institute of Sustainability 2060 to 2100 (June 2006)
Population Estimates and Projections 1900 to 2100
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
CAP Service Area Outside CAP Service Area
1920 = 344,000 people
2000 = 5.1 million people statewide4.1 million in CAP Service Area
2100 = 18.1 million people statewide15.2 million in CAP Service Area
Agriculture53%
Industial6%
Indian11%
Riparian2%
Municipal28%
Figure 4a. Demand by sector for Phoenix, Pinal and Tucson AMAs in 1998
SOURCE: Governor’s Water Management Commission
3.6 million acre-feet of total demand
Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006
Supply Sources
• Colorado River water (on-River, CAP)
• Intra-state surface water (SRP, Agua Fria, Gila, Planet Ranch, others)
• Groundwater (grandfathered, allowable)
• Reclaimed water• Seawater• Other…
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
Acr
e-F
eet
Figure 6. Comparison of central Arizona supply and demand
Currently secured supplies
Figure 6. Comparison of central Arizona supply and demand
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
Acr
e-F
eet
Likely available supplies
Figure 6. Comparison of central Arizona supply and demand
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
Acr
e-F
eet
Possibly available supplies
Figure 6. Comparison of central Arizona supply and demand
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
Acr
e-F
eet
Uncertain supplies
Figure 6. Comparison of central Arizona supply and demand
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
Acr
e-F
eet
2030 = 2.0 million acre-feet 8.5 million people
2045 = 2.4 million acre-feet 10.2 million people
2075 = 3.1 million acre-feet 12.9 million people
2100 = 3.6 million acre-feet 15.2 million people
Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006
Objective
• Identify key public policy issues and water management decisions to address for future
• Make recommendations for how to approach these issues
Un-quantified
Indian rights
Uncontrolled river
Insufficient storage
Lack of sufficient
power resources
Ongoing litigation
over water rights
No infrastructure to transport
water
1.5 million acre-foot liability to
Mexico
Questions about whether Arizona had a
right to water originating on federal land
No one under
contract for CAP water
Uncertainty about
growth
Litigation with
California
11:1 ratio in Congress
No institutions to develop and manage water
resources
3,000 feet of ascent
Competition for water supplies
Uncooperative rules
Fear Uncertainty about whether Gila river water
would be included in Arizona’s
entitlement
Exterior wall of a water professional’s brain
Un-quantified
Indian rights
Uncontrolled river
Insufficient storage
Lack of sufficient
power resources
Ongoing litigation
over water rights
No infrastructure to transport
water
1.5 million acre-foot liability to
Mexico
Questions about whether Arizona had a
right to water originating on federal land
No one under
contract for CAP water
Uncertainty about
growth
Litigation with
California
11:1 ratio in Congress
No institutions to develop and manage water
resources
3,000 feet of ascent
Competition for water supplies
Uncooperative rules
Fear Uncertainty about whether Gila river water
would be included in Arizona’s
entitlement
Cerebellum = coordinates our balance
and movement
Cross-section of the left side of a water
professional’s brain
Un-quantified
Indian rights
Uncontrolled river
Insufficient storage
Lack of sufficient
power resources
Ongoing litigation
over water rights
No infrastructure to transport
water
1.5 million acre-foot liability to
Mexico
Questions about whether Arizona had a
right to water originating on federal land
No one under
contract for CAP water
Uncertainty about
growth
Litigation with
California
11:1 ratio in Congress
No institutions to develop and manage water
resources
3,000 feet of ascent
Competition for water supplies
Uncooperative rules
Fear Uncertainty about whether Gila river water
would be included in Arizona’s
entitlement
ROOT PROBLEM: Cerebellum is wrapped
around an axle!
Un-quantified
Indian rights
Uncontrolled river
Insufficient storage
Lack of sufficient
power resources
Ongoing litigation
over water rights
No infrastructure to transport
water
1.5 million acre-foot liability to
Mexico
Questions about whether Arizona had a
right to water originating on federal land
No one under
contract for CAP water
Uncertainty about
growth
Litigation with
California
11:1 ratio in Congress
No institutions to develop and manage water
resources
3,000 feet of ascent
Competition for water supplies
Uncooperative rules
Fear Uncertainty about whether Gila river water
would be included in Arizona’s
entitlementIssues that “pre-water
buffalo” water professionals wrestled with between 1900
and 1985.
Road blocks
created by California
Un-quantified
Indian rights
Uncontrolled river
Insufficient storage
Lack of sufficient
power resources
Ongoing litigation
over water rights
No infrastructure to transport
water
1.5 million acre-foot liability to
Mexico
Questions about whether Arizona had a
right to water originating on federal land
No one under
contract for CAP water
Uncertainty about
growth
Litigation with
California
11:1 ratio in Congress
No institutions to develop and manage water
resources
3,000 feet of ascent
Competition for water supplies
Uncooperative rules
Fear Uncertainty about whether Gila river water
would be included in Arizona’s
entitlement
STAY
GO Developed over 60 million
acre-feet of storage capacity
Built CAP
Created institutions
Built water treatment
plants
Grew from nothing to millions
Built SRP
In 1900, we were
somewhere!
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau 1900 to 2000; Arizona Department of Economic Security 2010 to 2050 (April 2006 Projections); Global Institute of Sustainability 2060 to 2100 (June 2006)
Population Estimates and Projections 1900 to 2100
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
CAP Service Area Outside CAP Service Area
Maxwell proclaimed a “mad man”
CAP considered substantially complete.
The next big thing!
Significant improvements
to CAP and test the water
transfer theory
70 years
40 years
70 years
Indian water rights settlements
Environmental issues
Insufficient recharge capacity
Lack of sufficient
power resources
Ongoing litigation
over water rights
Water not stored where it
can be recovered
1.5 million acre-foot liability to
Mexico
Uncertainty about
growth
Litigation with Upper
Basin
Nearly 7:1 ratio in
CongressClimate change
Canal’s not big enough
Competition for water supplies
Uncooperative rules
Fear Uncertainty about whether Indians will do more leases
CAGRD
Today, we are here! STAY
GO
Aging system
What is the source of the obstacle?
What will it take for you to move forward even
though these obstacles exist?
How can we replicate the success of the past?
How can we create a future together?
What would Carl Hayden do?