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WORLD BANK TECHNICAL PAPER NUMBER 309

World and Regional Supply and DemandBalances for Nitrogen, Phosphate,and Potash, 1993/94-1999/2000

The World Bank/FAO/UNIDO/IndustryFertilizer Working Group

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WORLD BANK TECHNICAL PAPER NUMBER 309

World and Regional Supply and DemandBalances for Nitrogen, Phosphate,

and Potash, 1993/94-1999/2000

The World Bank/FAO/UNIDO/IndustryFertilizer Working Group

The World BankWashington, D.C.

Copyright © 1995The International Bank for Reconstructionand Development/THE WORLD BANK

1818 H Street, N.W.Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.

All rights reservedManufactured in the United States of AmericaFirst printing December 1995

Technical Papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank's work to the development com-munity with the least possible delay. The typescript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accor-dance with the procedures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the World Bank accepts no responsibili-ty for errors. Some sources cited in this paper may be informal documents that are not readily available.

The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of theauthor(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations,or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The World Bank doesnot guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility whatso-ever for any consequence of their use. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other informationshown on any map in this volume do not imply on the part of the World Bank Group any judgment onthe legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

The material in this publication is copyrighted. Requests for permission to reproduce portions of itshould be sent to the Office of the Publisher at the address shown in the copyright notice above. TheWorld Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally give permission promptly and,when the reproduction is for noncommercial purposes, without asking a fee. Permission to copy por-tions for classroom use is granted through the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., Suite 910, 222Rosewood Drive, Danvers, Massachusetts 01923, U.S.A.

The complete backlist of publications from the World Bank is shown in the annual Index ofPublications, which contains an alphabetical title list (with full ordering information) and indexes of sub-jects, authors, and countries and regions. The latest edition is available free of charge from theDistribution Unit, Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433,U.S.A., or from Publications, The World Bank, 66, avenue d'Iena, 75116 Paris, France.

ISSN: 1014-9848ISBN: 0-8213-3495-6

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CONTENTS

Foreword.....................................................................................................v

Abstract .... ; .......................... vii

INTRODUCTION .I

Historical Background. 2Membership of the Fertilizer Working Group. 3Regional Country Classification. 4Introduction to the Tables. 5

General Notes on Terinology. 5Notes on Nitrogen 6Notes on Phosphate. 7Notes on Potash. 8

NITROGEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES. 9

Regional Ammonia Capacity .10Regional Ammonia Supply Capabiity .12Regional Non-Ammonia Nitrogen Supply .14Regional Nitrogen Fertilizer Demand .15Regional Industrial and Feed Nitrogen Demand 16World and Regional Nitrogen Supply & Demand Balances 17

PHOSPHATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES .21

Regional Phosphoric Acid Capacity 22Regional Phosphoric Acid Supply Capability 24Regional Non-Phosphoric Acid Supply Capability .26Regional Phosphate Fertilizer Demand 27Regional Non-Fertilizer Phosphoric Acid Demand 28World and Regional Phosphate Supply and Demand Balances 29

POTASH SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES .33

Regional Potash Mine Capacity 34Regional Potash Mine Supply Capability .35Regional Potash Fertilizer Demand .36Regional Technical Grade Potash Production 37World and Regional Potash Supply & Demand Balances 38

FERTILIZER SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES SUMMARY .41

- v -

Foreword

Since the establishment of the World Bank/FAO/UNIDO/Industry FertilizerWorking Group in the mid 1970's, the Bank has chaired the Group and maintained itsextensive fertilizer database in cooperation with FAO, UNIDO, IFDC and theinternational fertilizer industry. One of the main activities of the Group is the preparationof annual fertilizer nutrient supply demand balances that cover the latest two-yearhistorical data and forecasts over the next five-years.

The World Bank agreed in 1991 to publish annually on behalf of the FertilizerWorking Group the new fertilizer supply demand balances as soon as they becomeavailable. This current issue of the "World and Regional Supply and Demand Balances forNitrogen, Phosphate, and Potash" reflects the conclusions of the 1995 meetings of theWorld Bank/FAO/UNIDO/Industry Fertilizer Working Group.

Richard SternDirector

Industry and Energy DepartmentFinance and Private Sector Development

- vii -

Abstract

Since 1991 the World Bank has been publishing "The World and Regional Supplyand Demand Balances for Nitrogen, Phosphate, and Potash" on an annual basis in theform of World Bank Technical Papers. The current publication again provides statisticaldata in tabular format on the most recent historical fertilizer nutrient supply and demandbalances as well as a five-year forecast and is based on the August 1995 assessments bythe World Bank/FAO/UNIDO/Industry Fertilizer Working Group.

Global and regional data are presented for the three main fertilizer nutrients:nitrogen, phosphate, and potash. A brief introduction supplies some background on theactivities and composition of the Group and explains its methodologies used for theprojections.

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INTRODUCTION

The World Bank/FAO/UNIDO/Industry Fertilizer Working Group (the 'Group')includes a number of specialists who are experienced in the analysis of trends in theproduction and consumption of the three main fertilizer nutrients (nitrogen, phosphate andpotash) and fertilizer raw materials. Other members of the Group represent majorindustrial associations of the nitrogen, phosphate, potash and sulfur industries. Technical,production, marketing and agricultural interests are also represented within the Group.

The capacity and supply capability of the main fertilizer raw materials andintermediates are calculated on a country by country basis and take into account thephasing-in of new plants, anticipated plant utilization rates and idle capacity. Becausesome of these materials are also used for purposes other than fertilizers, their industrialconsumption is subtracted from the supply capability to arrive at availability for fertilizeruse; further, allowances are made for processing and distribution losses. The resultantfigure is the potential fertilizer supply capability at the farm level.

Demand projections are the consensus of the Group and take into account avariety of methodologies, including trend analyses, market surveys, agricultural programsand, for some large countries, econometric modelling. Other economic factors that aretaken into account by the Group include the impact of oil and agricultural prices onfertilizer demand and the possible constraints arising from environmental legislation.Policy issues and agricultural programs in the major fertilizer consuming countries are alsotaken into consideration. Of particular importance to both fertilizer demand and trade arecurrent political and economic changes that are taking place, especially in Eastern Europeand the former Soviet Union (FSU).

In preparing the forecasts, the Group makes contact with fertilizer experts in majorfertilizer consuming and producing countries and asks them for their most recent views onthe fertilizer situation in their country or region. Their valued comments form animportant and integral part of the discussions.

The Group operates in an informal manner and members are encouraged to discussavailable data freely before a consensus is taken. Generally, anyone representing a majorfertilizer interest is welcome to join the Group, provided he or she is willing and able tomake a positive contribution to the work. A wide geographical membership isencouraged.

It is understood that the forecasts of the Group do not necessarily reflect thedetailed views of all members of the Group or their associations. A particular strength ofthe Working Group is that it is prepared to take all views into account, but has noobligations other than that an objective consensus be reached after all relevant issues havebeen discussed.

-2-

Further, it should be noted that the projected supply capabilities for nitrogen,phosphate and potash will not necessarily correlate with actual industry outputs, asproduction will in most instances follow relevant market trends, whereas the listed supplycapabilities reflect the potential output based on the current knowledge of the industry andin the absence of external constraints. The demand projections include historical trendanalyses and economic considerations, but do not indicate agronomically optimizedscenarios based on maximum sustainable agricultural production including best croppingpatterns and technologies.

The World Bank acts as the custodian of the fertilizer data base that has beendeveloped and maintained by the Group. With the help of other members of the Group,the Bank regularly prepares the updated regional and global supply/demand balances,typically for 5-year periods. The balances are discussed and updated if required in thelight of further information then available before publication. The World Bank hasundertaken to publish, on behalf of the Group, the annual fertilizer supply and demandbalances as soon as they have been finalized after the relevant meetings.

Historical Background

In 1974, the world experienced its worst fertilizer crisis ever with prices risingseveral-fold to unprecedented levels. Many farmers in developing countries could nolonger afford to buy or justify the use of fertilizers. Undoubtedly, one of the factorsaggravating the problem was the lack of reliable information on supply and demandforecasts for fertilizer materials. Projections from the international agencies and fertilizerindustry associations varied widely and a common view was that the world was headingfor a catastrophic shortage of fertilizers.

At the World Food Conference held in Rome in November 1974 to discuss thefood and fertilizer crisis, it was recognized that there was an urgent need for authoritativeand reliable information on the supply and demand of fertilizers which could bedisseminated widely throughout the world. Such data provide a valuable input forplanning and decision making, assist developing countries in assessing the true state of themarket and help planners of new capacity to make better decisions so as to minimizesurges in supply and demand.

One of the recommendations of the World Food Conference was that theinternational agencies establish and maintain an authoritative analysis of the medium andlong term fertilizer supply and demand situation and provide information that would assistin avoiding major imbalances between supply and demand.

Since the beginning of 1975, the World Bank, FAO and UNIDO, in associationwith other international fertilizer agencies and representatives from the internationalfertilizer industry, have been responsible for maintaining a fertilizer data base and

-3-

providing five-year forecasts of world and regional supply and demand balances throughthe World Bank/FAO/UNIDO/Industry Fertilizer Working Group.

Membership of the Fertilizer Working Group

- International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA)- International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC)- European Fertilizer Manufacturers Association (EFMA)- United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO)- Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO)- The World Bank (IBRD)- Canpotex Limited- Kali und Salz AG

All of these organizations maintain their own comprehensive data bases onfertilizers from which information is available to the Group.

- International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)- Fertilizer Industry Advisory Committee (FIAC)- International Potash Institute (IPI)- The Sulphur Institute (TSI)- The World Phosphate Institute (IMPHOS)- Potash and Phosphate Institute (PPI)- Arab Fertilizer Association (AFA)- Association for the Promotion of Fertilizers and Lime, Brazil (ANDA)- Fertiliser Association of India (FAI)- Japan Urea & Ammonium Sulphate Industry Association (JUASIA)- The Fertilizer Institute of the USA (TFI)- Prism Sulphur Corporation (as successor of Canada Sulphur Exporters,

CANSULEX)

Government Agencies

- US Bureau of Mines (USBM)- US Department of Agriculture (USDA)- State Institute of Nitrogen Industry, FSU (GIAP)- fMinistry of Chemical Industry, China

-4-

Regional Country Classification'

AFRICA AMERICA ASIA EUROPE FSU OCEANIA(FormerSoviet Union)

Algeria North America West Asia East Europe Armenia AustraliaAngola Canada Bahrain Albania Azerbaijan FijiBenin United States Cyprus Bulgaria Belarus French PolynesiaBotswana Iran Czech Rep. Estonia CaledoniaBurkina Faso Central America Iraq Hungary Georgia New ZealandBurundi Bahamas Israel Poland Kazakhstan Papua New GuineaCameroon Barbados Jordan Romania KyrgyzstanCentral African Belize Kuwait Slovak Rep. LatviaRep. Bermuda Lebanon Former Yugos 2 LithuaniaChad Costa Rica Oman MoldoviaCongo Cuba Qatar West Europe RussiaCote d'Ivoire Dominica Saudi Arabia Austria TajikistanEgypt Dominican Rep. Syria Belgium- TurkmenistanEthiopia El Salvador Turkey Luxburg UkraineGabon Guadeloupe United Arab Denmark UzbekistanGambia Guatemala Emirates FinlandGhana Haiti Yemen FranceGuinea Honduras GermanyGuinea Bissau Jamaica South Asia GreeceKenya Martinique Afghanistan IcelandLesotho Mexico Bangladesh IrelandLiberia Nicaragua Bhutan ItalyLibya Panama India MaltaMadagascar St. Kitts & Nepal NetherlandsMalawi Nevis Pakistan NorwayMali Saint Lucia Sri Lanka PortugalMauritania Saint Vincent SpainMauritius Trinidad & East Asia SwedenMorocco Tobago Cambodia SwitzerlandMozambique Virgin Islands China United KingdomNiger IndonesiaNigeria South America JapanReunion Argentina LaosRwanda Bolivia MalaysiaSenegal Brazil MongoliaSierra Leone Chile MyanmarSomalia Colombia Korea DPR.South Africa Ecuador Korea Rep.Sudan French Guyana PhilippinesSwaziland Guyana SingaporeTanzania Paraguay TaiwanTogo Peru ThailandTunisia Surinam VietnamUganda UruguayZaire VenezuelaZambiaZimbabwe

The classification is combatible with the FAO geographical classification which makes for easy comparison ofhistorical data.

2 Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Slovenia, Yugoslavia (Serbia & Montenegro).

- 5 -

INTRODUCTION TO THE TABLES

The World Bank/FAO/UNIDO/Industry Fertilizer Working Group has updated itsforecasts of world and regional fertilizer nutrient supply and demand balances. The supplypotential calculated in the tables is the supply that would be available from existingcapacities without any market constraints. Recent developments in Eastern Europeand the former Soviet Union have been taken into account and due consideration was alsogiven to current and anticipated constraints in fertilizer related sectors, such as agriculture,energy and infrastructure Fertilizer demand is the projected effective marketrequirement and is not necessarily identical with projected agronomic fertilizerneeds.

General Notes on Terminology

Capacity:Refers to nominal or name-plate capacity of ammonia plants, phosphoric plants orpotash mines. Effective capacity is nominal capacity less an allowance for capacitythat has not been fully realized during the phasing-in of new plants. Idle plants thathave the potential for resuming operation are included in nominal capacity.Effective capacity and supply capability does not include idle capacity. Shorterperiods of non-operation are accounted for in the utilization rates.

Supply Capability:Is the total production supply capability for either ammonia, phosphoric acid orpotash. It is estimated by applying forecasts of specific country operating rates toeffective capacity. Projected operating rates reflect past performance and take intoaccount anticipated future technical improvements or otherwise. No marketconstraints to production are assumed in projecting operating rates.

Fertilizer Supply Potential:Is derived from supply capability. First, non-fertilizer use is subtracted, followedby processing losses, where appropriate. Fertilizers available from other sourcesare added to yield fertilizer supply potential. Allowance is made for distributionlosses and stock changes.

Balances (-Deficits):A nutrient surplus or deficit is obtained by subtracting fertilizer demand fromfertilizer supply potential. It shows the difference between fertilizer supplypotential and demand, assuming no market constraints to production. Care isneeded in comparing balances from different sources in absolute terms as they mayvary significantly depending on assumptions made for capacities, utilization rates,

- 6 -

losses etc. Also, projected balances may often not be realized in practice,particularly in those cases where a negative balance is indicated and demand has toadjust to meet available supply. In a surplus situation, supply will be adjusteddownwards by operating at rates below the supply potential.

The main function of the balances is to help estimate future trends in the supplyand demand relationship based on a consistent set of assumptions compared withexisting and past situations. These trends provide useful information on themarket place and the need for new production capacity.

Time Reference:Data refer to the fertilizer year July I - June 30. For countries that report theirfertilizer statistics on a calendar year basis, data are shown under the fertilizer year,the first part of which corresponds to the calendar year, i.e. 1988 calendar yeardata are shown under fertilizer year 1988/89.

Units:All figures are given in metric tons of plant nutrients: N, P2 05 and K20. Theterms "P2 05" and "K20" are conventionally used to express the fertilizer nutrients"phosphate" and "potash". They represent the oxides of the elements P and K.

To convert oxides to elements:multiply P205 value by 0.4364;multiply K20 value by 0.8302.

To convert elements to oxides:multiply P value by 2.2914;multiply K value by 1.2046.

Owing to rounding, individual figures may not add up to the totals.

Notes on Nitrogen

New ammonia capacities are phased-in as 80%-90%-100% of nominal capacity forthe first three full years of operation. Expansions are phased-in over a two year period.

Non-fertilizer use of ammonia includes industrial uses and ammonia for productionof animal feed. As nitrogen recovered as ammonium sulfate has already been included inthe fertilizer consumption forecast, it is not listed under non-fertilizer ammonia.

The processing loss of ammonia in the production of nitrogenous fertilizers isassumed to be 3.5% on average.

Sources for non-ammonia nitrogen are coke oven gases, cyanamid and mineralnitrates.

The nitrogen fertilizer supply potential is assumed to be 95.5% of the totalfertilizer nitrogen supply capability. This percentage is based on the average historicaldifference between total nitrogen fertilizer consumption and production for the last fiveyears as recorded in the respective FAO Fertilizer Yearbooks and takes account oftransport and distribution losses and stock changes. It also accounts for the fact that insome cases (for example China) consumption is recorded as apparent consumption (i.e.net imports plus production) rather than actual.

Notes on Phosphate

New phosphoric acid capacities are phased-in as 80%-90%-100% of nominalcapacity for the first three full years of operation. Expansions are phased-in over a twoyear period.

Non-fertilizer phosphoric acid consumption includes wet process phosphoric acidfor industrial use in detergents, phosphate chemicals etc. and for animal feedstuff.

The processing and conversion loss of phosphoric acid in the manufacture ofphosphate fertilizer is assumed to be 4.0% on average.

Other P 2 0 5 production includes all other phosphates not derived directly fromphosphoric acid such as single superphosphate, basic slag, thermal phosphates,nitrophosphates, ground phosphate rock used for direct application as fertilizer, butexcludes phosphoric acid feed and the secondary rock in triple superphosphates.Production is based on existing capacity and projected changes in capacity.

Phosphate fertilizer supply potential is assumed to be 97.0% of total fertilizerphosphate supply capability. It is based on the average historical difference between totalphosphate fertilizer consumption and production for the last five years as recorded in therespective FAO Fertilizer Yearbooks. This statistical adjustment accounts for transportand distribution losses, and stock changes. It also accounts for the fact that in some cases(for example China) consumption is recorded as apparent consumption (i.e. net importsplus production) rather than actual.

- 8 -

Notes on Potash

New potash mine nominal capacities are phased-in as follows:

Fertilizer Year New Mines New MinesKnown Ore Body Unknown Ore Body

1 (6 months)' 30.0% 20.0%2 67.5% 50.0%3 82.5% 67.5%4 95.0% 82.5%5 100.0% 100.0%

' Assuming project completion in mid-year.

Expansions are phased-in over a two-year period.

Potash Fertilizer supply potential is derived from potash supply capability afterdeducting industrial uses and distribution losses. The specific regional distribution lossesare:

Region Distribution Loss

North America 2.0%Western Europe 2.0%FSU 8.0%Other regions 5.0%

This Technical Paper reflects the most recent fertilizer supply and demandprojections prepared by the World Bank/FAO/UNIDO/Industry Fertilizer Working Groupin August 1995.

The Group welcomes suggestions and comments on the improvement of itsfertilizer supply and demand balances. Any communication relating to the Group'sactivities and its supply and demand forecasts should be addressed to The World Bank,Industry and Energy Department, Industry and Mining Division, for the attention of Mr.Peter Glenshaw, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, USA, telephone (202)473-2426, telefax (202) 477-6619.

The contents of this paper should, however, not be attributed to the World Bank,to its affiliated organizations, or to any individual acting on their behalf.

NITROGEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES

1993/94 - 1999/00

The Fertilizer Working Group - 10-August 1995

REGIONAL AMMONIA CAPACITY (000 TONS N)

1993194 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 AnnualGrowth

WORLD 111,448 114.399 117.099 118.180 121.353 121,807 123,526 2%

AFRICA 3.718 3 756 3.756 3.811 3.811 3.811 4.137 2Wof which:Egypt 1,224 1,224 1,224 1,279 1,279 1,279 1,605 4%South Africa 717 755 755 755 755 755 755 1%

AMERICA 22.089 21 935 22.479 22.,639 23 490 23.659 24.064 1%

North America 16,671 16,477 16,854 16,884 17,145 17,155 17,155 0%Canada 3,478 3,478 3,719 3,749 3,764 3,774 3,774 1%USA 13,193 12,999 13,135 13,135 13,381 13,381 13,381 0%

Central America 3,487 3,487 3,654 3,703 4,183 4,183 4,183 3%of which:Trinidad 1,637 1,637 1,804 1,853 2,333 2,333 2,333 6%

South America 1,931 1,971 1,971 2,052 2,162 2,321 2,726 6%of which:Brazil 1,005 1,045 1,045 1,055 1,085 1,159 1,159 2%

ASIA 43.855 47,466 50,119 51.3 54.234 54.S81 55.178 4W

West Asia 5,454 5,499 5,569 5,841 6,323 6,323 6,797 4%of which:Iran 908 908 908 1,180 1,180 1,180 1,180 4%Saudi Arabia 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256 0%

South Asia 11,631 12,365 13,352 13,604 15,088 15,130 15,253 4%of which:Bangladesh 1,144 1,144 1,412 1,412 1,412 1,412 1,412 3%India 8,658 9,392 9,839 9,949 10,830 10,872 10,995 4%Pakistan 1,558 1,558 1,830 1,972 2,575 2,575 2,575 9%

EastAsia 26,770 29,602 31,198 31,918 32,823 33,128 33,128 3%of which:China 20,263 22,363 23,719 24,439 25,344 25,344 25,344 4%Indonesia 2,717 3,449 3,689 3,689 3,689 3,689 3,689 5%Japan 1,636 1,636 1,636 1,636 1,636 1,636 1,636 0%Korea, D.P. R. 879 879 879 879 879 879 879 0%Korea Rep. of 652 652 652 652 652 652 652 0%

The Fertilizer Working Group - 11 -August 1995

REGIONAL AMMONIA CAPACITY (000 TONS N)

1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 AnnualGrowth

EUROPE 19.527 19.436 19,228 19.311 19.311 19.311 19.311 0%

Eastern Europe 8,295 8,295 8,087 8,112 8,112 8,112 8,112 0%of which:Bulgaria 1,184 1,184 1,094 1,094 1,094 1,094 1,094 -1%Poland 2,194 2,194 2,194 2,194 2,194 2,194 2,194 0%Romania 3,020 3,020 2,902 2,927 2,927 2,927 2,927 0%Former Yugoslavia 617 617 617 617 617 617 617 0%

Western Europe 11,232 11,141 11,141 11,199 11,199 11,199 11,199 0%of which:France 1,582 1,582 1,582 1,582 1,582 1,582 1,582 0%'Germany 2,485 2,485 2,485 2,485 2,485 2,485 2,485 0%Netherlands 2,544 2,544 2,544 2,602 2,602 2,602 2,602 0%United Kingdom 1,086 1,104 1,104 1,104 1,104 1,104 1,104 0%

FSU 21.691 21.238 20.949 20.454 19.905 19.843 20.234 41%of which:Russian Federation 12,261 12,056 12,240 11,910 11,675 12,065 12,456 0%Ukraine 5,105 5,021 4,727 4,562 4,562 4,562 4,562 -2%Uzbekistan 1,675 1,593 1,593 1,593 1,279 827 827 -7%

OCEANIA 568 568 568 602 602 602 602 1%/of which:Australia 492 492 492 492 492 492 492 0%


REGIONAL AMMONIA SUPPLY CAPABILITY (000 TONS N)

1993/94 1994/95 1996/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 AnnualGrowth

WORLD 89.963 90.661 93.282 95.742 98.254 100.071 101.033 L&

AFRICA 2.736 Z.M 2.849 2.879 2.904 2.904 3.01 iof which:Egypt 1,006 1,075 1,097 1,126 1,151 1,151 1,268 4%South Africa 792 790 814 814 814 814 814 0%

AMERICA 21.977 21.998 22.200 22.532 22.983 23.453 23.726 1%

North America 16,995 16,946 17,031 17,222 17,378 17,521 17,552 0%Canada 3,393 3,452 3,580 3,706 3,747 3,769 3,774 2%USA 13,602 13,494 13,451 13,515 13,631 13,752 13,778 0%

Central America 3,434 3,487 3,571 3,679 3,896 4,113 4,160 3%of which:Trinidad 1,584 1,637 1,721 1,829 2,046 2,263 2,310 7%

South America 1,549 1,566 1,599 1,632 1,709 1,819 2,014 4%of which:Brazil 854 871 888 893 910 954 985 2%

ASIA 34.750 36.167 38.863 41.190 43.341 44.893 45.499 45o

West Asia 3,679 4,169 4,651 4,792 5,360 5,599 5,757 8%of which:Iran 255 255 255 331 797 816 826 32%Saudi Arabia 1,111 1,314 1,359 1,382 1,382 1,382 1,382 3%

South Asia 9,514 9,851 10,496 11,041 11,772 12,445 12,655 5%of which:Bangladesh 961 972 1,064 1,166 1,189 1,200 1,200 4%India 6,897 7,152 7,569 7,803 8,171 8,549 8,698 4%Pakistan 1,444 1,515 1,652 1,860 2,200 2,485 2,545 11%

East Asia 21,558 22,147 23,716 25,357 26,209 26,849 27,087 4%of which:China 15,793 16,136 17,323 18,799 19,620 20,138 20,239 4%Indonesia 2,312 2,558 2,940 3,105 3,136 3,136 3,136 5%Japan 1,553 1,553 1,553 1,553 1,553 1,553 1,553 0%Korea, D.P.R. 747 747 747 747 747 747 747 0%Korea Rep. of 587 587 587 587 587 587 587 0%


REGIONAL AMMONIA SUPPLY CAPABILITY (000 TONS N)

1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997198 1998/99 199912000 AnnualGrowth

EUROPE 15,868 15,259 16.176 15.188 15,408 15,420 15.43i 00

Eastern Europe 5,066 4,970 4,928 4,910 5,102 5,113 5,125 0%of which:Bulgaria 829 829 797 766 766 766 766 -1%Poland 1,588 1,626 1,646 1,646 1.646 1,646 1,646 1 %Romania 1,510 1,510 1,481 1,457 1,464 1,464 1,464 0%Former Yugoslavia 198 148 148 185 370 376 383 13%

Western Europe 10,803 10,289 10,249 10,278 10,307 10,307 10,307 -1%of which:France 1,424 1,424 1,424 1,424 1,424 1,424 1,424 0%'Germany 2,537 2,361 2,361 2,361 2,361 2,361 2,361 -1%Netherlands 2,684 2,544 2,544 2,573 2,602 2,602 2,602 0%United Kinydom 1,032 1,040 1,049 1,049 1,049 1,049 1,049 0%

FSU 14.119 13,923 13.682 13.427 13,076 12,860 12 -1%of which:Russian Federation 8,414 8,297 8,154 8,002 7,793 7,664 7,636 -1%Ukraine 3,161 3,117 3,063 3,006 2,927 2,879 2,869 -1%Uzbekistan 960 946 930 913 889 874 871 -1%

OCEANIA 511 511 511 527 542 542 542 12/Aof which:Australia 443 443 443 443 443 443 443 0%


REGIONAL NON-AMMONIA NITROGEN SUPPLY (000 TONS N)

1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996197 1997/98 1998:99 1999/2000 AnnualGrowth

WORLD 545 554 560 567 56 568 591No

AFRICA 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 1%

AMERICA 98 98 99 99 100 100 100 0%North America 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 0%Central AmericaSouth America 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 4%

ASIA 144 144 144 144 144 144 144 054West AsiaSouth Asia 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 0%East Asia 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 0%

EUROPE 138 142 142 144 144 144 144 1%Eastern Europe 42 46 46 48 48 48 48 2%Western Europe 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 0%

FSU 135 140 145 ISO 150 150 150 2

OCEANIA 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0Q&


REGIONAL NITROGEN FERTILIZER DEMAND

1993/94 1994195 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998199 1999/2000 2004/05

WORLD 72.426 72.403 73.750 76.953 78.250 80.007 82.070 8d.95

AFRICA 2.3 2.345 2.425 2.5 2.610 2.715 2.820 3.250

AMERICA 17.062 16.400 16.95 17.220 17.590 17.980 18.410 19.50North America 13,253 12,500 13,000 13,100 13,300 13,500 13,700 14,000Central America 1,770 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 1,910 2,010 2,350South America 2,039 2,200 2,205 2,320 2,440 2,570 2,700 3,200

ASIA 37.192 38.567 39.440 40.885 42.280 43.140 44,150 47.350WestAsia 2,721 2,561 2,730 2,835 2,930 3,040 3,150 3,350SouthAsia 11,332 12,006 12,210 12,550 12,850 13,100 13,500 15,000East Asia 23,139 24,000 24,500 25,500 26,500 27,000 27,500 29,000

EUROPE 11.245 11,677 11.500 11.570 11.650 11.720 11.800 12.300Eastern Europe 1,889 2,127 2,250 2,380 2,510 2,650 2,800 3,300Western Europe 9,356 9,550 9,250 9,190 9,140 9,070 9,000 9,000

FSU 3.948 2.700 2.700 3.000 30 3.600 4.000 5.500

OCEANIA 639 714 730 773 820 852 890 1.000


REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL AND FEED NITROGEN DEMAND (000 TONS N)

1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996197 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 AnnualGrowth

WORLD 9.590 10.180 10.590 10.730 10.840 11.050 11.060 25

AFRICA 300 320 320 320 320 320 320 1%

AMERICA 3.660 4,100 4,210 4.220 4.230 4.240 4.250 20%North America 3,400 3,800 3,900 3,900 3,900 3,900 3,900 2%Central America 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 0%South America 150 190 200 210 220 230 240 9%

ASIA 2.000 2.230 2.330 2.360 2.380 2.43Q 2.430 3YeWest Asia 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 0%South Asia 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 0%East Asia 1,720 1,950 2,050 2,080 2,100 2,150 2,150 4%

EUROPE 2.300 2.600 2.600 2.600 2.630 2.630 2.3 254Eastern Europe 400 400 400 400 430 430 430 1%Western Europe 1,900 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2%

FSU 1.100 700 900 1.000 1.050 1.200 1.200 1Ye

OCEANIA 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 OYo


WORLD AND REGIONAL NITROGEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES (000 TONS N)

WORLD TOTAL 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996197 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

NH3 Nominal Capacity 111,448 114,399 117,099 118,180 121,353 121,807 123,526NH3 Supply Capability 89,963 90,661 93,282 95,742 98,254 100,071 101,033NH3 Industrial Use 9,590 10,180 10,590 10,730 10,840 11,050 11,060Losses 6,430 6,438 6,615 6,801 6,993 7,122 7,198NH3 Available for Ferts. 73,943 74,043 76,077 78,211 80,421 81,899 82,775Non-NH3 Nitrogen 545 554 560 567 568 568 569N Ferts.Supply Potential 74,488 74,597 76,637 78,778 80,989 82,467 83,344N Ferts. Consumption 72,426 72,403 73,750 75,953 78,250 80,007 82,070Surplus (-Deficit) 2,062 2,194 2,887 2,825 2,739 2,460 1,274

AFRICA 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

NH3 Nominal Capacity 3,718 3,756 3,756 3,811 3,811 3,811 4,137NH3 Supply Capability 2,736 2,803 2,849 2,879 2,904 2,904 3,021NH3 Industrial Use 300 320 320 320 320 320 320Losses 195 199 202 205 207 207 216NH3 Available for Ferts. 2,241 2,284 2,327 2,354 2,377 2,377 2,485Non-NH3 Nitrogen 21 21 21 21 21 21 22N Ferts.Supply Potential 2,262 2,305 2,348 2,375 2,398 2,398 2,507N Ferts. Consumption 2,340 2,345 2,425 2,505 2,610 2,715 2,820Surplus (-Deficit) (78) (40) (77) (130) (212) (317) (313)

AMERICA 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

NH3 Nominal Capacity 22,089 21,935 22,479 22,639 23,490 23,659 24,064NH3 Supply Capability 21,977 21,998 22,200 22,532 22,983 23,453 23,725NH3 Industrial Use 3,660 4,100 4,210 4,220 4,230 4,240 4,250Losses 1,465 1,432 1,439 1,465 1,500 1,537 1,558NH3 Available for Ferts. 16,852 16,466 16,551 16,847 17,253 17,676 17,917Non-NH3 Nitrogen 98 98 99 99 100 100 100N Ferts.Supply Potential 16,950 16,564 16,650 16,946 17,353 17,776 18,017N Ferts. Consumption 17,062 16,400 16,955 17,220 17,590 17,980 18,410Surplus (-Deficit) (112) 164 (305) (274) (237) (204) (393)

North America 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

NH3 Nominal Capacity 16,671 16,477 16,854 16,884 17,145 17,155 17,155NH3 Supply Capability 16,995 16,946 17,031 17,222 17,378 17,521 17,552NH3 Industrial Use 3,400 3,800 3,900 3,900 3,900 3,900 3,900Losses 1,088 1,052 1,050 1,066 1,078 1,090 1,092NH3 Available for Ferts. 12,507 12,094 12,081 12,256 12,400 12,531 12,559Non-NH3 Nitrogen 90 90 90 90 90 90 90N Ferts.Supply Potential 12,597 12,184 12,171 12,346 12,490 12,621 12,649N Ferts. Consumption 13,253 12,500 13,000 13,100 13,300 13,500 13,700Surplus (-Deficit) (656) (316) (829) (754) (810) (879) (1,051)



Central America 1993/94 1994195 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

NH3 Nominal Capacity 3,487 3,487 3,654 3,703 4,183 4,183 4,183NH3 Supply Capability 3,434 3,487 3,571 3,679 3,896 4,113 4,160NH3 Industrial Use 110 110 110 110 110 110 110Losses 266 270 277 285 303 320 324NH3 Available for Ferts. 3,058 3,107 3,184 3,283 3,483 3,683 3,726Non-NH3 NitrogenN Ferts.Supply Potential 3,058 3,107 3,184 3,283 3,483 3,683 3,726N Ferts. Consumption 1,770 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 1,910 2,010Surplus (-Deficit) 1,288 1,407 1,434 1,483 1,633 1,773 1,716

South America 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

NH3 Nominal Capacity 1,931 1,971 1,971 2,052 2,162 2,321 2,726NH3 Supply Capability 1,549 1,566 1,599 1,632 1,709 1,819 2,014NH3 Industrial Use 150 190 200 210 220 230 240Losses 112 110 112 114 119 127 142NH3 Available for Ferts. 1,287 1,266 1,287 1,308 1,370 1,462 1,632Non-NH3 Nitrogen 8 8 9 9 10 10 10N Ferts.Supply Potential 1,295 1,274 1,296 1,317 1,380 1,472 1,642N Ferts. Consumption 2,039 2,200 2,205 2,320 2,440 2,570 2,700Surplus (-Deficit) (744) (926) (909) (1,003) (1,060) (1,098) (1,058)

ASIA 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

NH3 Nominal Capacity 43,855 47,466 50,119 51,363 54,234 54,581 55,178NH3 Supply Capability 34,750 36,167 38,863 41,190 43,341 44,893 45,499NH3 Industrial Use 2,000 2,230 2,330 2,360 2,380 2,430 2,430Losses 2,620 2,715 2,923 3,106 3,277 3,397 3,446NH3 Available for Ferts. 30,130 31,222 33,610 35,724 37,684 39,066 39,624Non-NH3 Nitrogen 144 144 144 144 144 144 144N Ferts.Supply Potential 30,274 31,366 33,754 35,868 37,828 39,210 39,768N Ferts. Consumption 37,192 38,567 39,440 40,885 42,280 43,140 44,150Surplus (-Deficit) (6,918) (7,201) (5,686) (5,017) (4,452) (3,930) (4,382)

West Asia 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

NH3 Nominal Capacity 5,454 5,499 5,569 5,841 6,323 6,323 6,797NH3 Supply Capability 3,679 4,169 4,651 4,792 5,360 5,599 5,757NH3 Industrial Use 130 130 130 130 130 130 130Losses 284 323 362 373 418 438 450NH3 Available for Ferts. 3,265 3,716 4,159 4,289 4,812 5,031 5,177Non-NH3 NitrogenN Ferts.Supply Potential 3,265 3,716 4,159 4,289 4,812 5,031 5,177N Ferts. Consumption 2,721 2,561 2,730 2,835 2,930 3,040 3,150Surplus (-Deficit) 544 1,155 1,429 1,454 1,882 1,991 2,027



South Asia 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996/97 1997198 1998/99 1999/2000

NH3 Nominal Capacity 11,631 12,365 13,352 13,604 15,088 15,130 15,253NH3 Supply Capability 9,514 9,851 10,496 11,041 11,772 12,445 12,655NH3 Industrial Use 150 150 150 150 150 150 150Losses 749 776 828 871 930 984 1,000NH3AvailableforFerts. 8,614 8,924 9,519 10,020 10,692 11,312 11,504Non-NH3 Nitrogen 24 24 24 24 24 24 24N Ferts.Supply Potential 8,638 8,948 9,543 10,044 10,716 11,336 11,528N Ferts. Consumption 11,332 12,006 12,210 12,550 12,850 13,100 13,500Surplus (-Deficit) (2,694) (3,058) (2,667) (2,506) (2,134) (1,764) (1,972)

East Asia 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 199912000

NH3 Nominal Capacity 26,770 29,602 31,198 31,918 32,823 33,128 33,128NH3 Supply Capability 21,558 22,147 23,716 25,357 26,209 26,849 27,087NH3 Industrial Use 1,720 1,950 2,050 2,080 2,100 2,150 2,150Losses 1,587 1,616 1,733 1,862 1,929 1,976 1,995NH3 Available for Ferts. 18,251 18,581 19,933 21,414 22,180 22,723 22,942Non-NH3 Nitrogen 120 120 120 120 120 120 120N Ferts.Supply Potential 18,371 18,701 20,053 21,534 22,300 22,843 23,062N Ferts. Consumption 23,139 24,000 24,500 25,500 26,500 27,000 27,500Surplus (-Deficit) (4,768) (5,299) (4,447) (3,966) (4,200) (4,157) (4,438)

EUROPE 1993194 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

NH3 Nominal Capacity 19,527 19,436 19,228 19,311 19,311 19,311 19,311NH3 Supply Capability 15,868 15,259 1 3,176 15,188 15,408 15,420 15,431NH3 Industrial Use 2,300 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,630 2,630 2,630Losses 1,085 1,013 1,006 1,007 1,022 1,023 1,024NH3 Available for Ferts. 12,483 11,646 11,570 11,581 11,756 11,767 11,777Non-NH3 Nitrogen 138 142 142 144 144 144 144N Ferts.Supply Potential 12,621 11,788 11,712 11,725 11,900 11 911 11,921N Ferts. Consumption 11,245 11,677 11,500 11,570 11,650 11,720 11,800Surplus (-Deficit) 1,376 111 212 155 250 191 121

East Europe 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1996/98 1996/99

NH3 Nominal Capacity 8,295 8,295 8,087 8,112 8,112 8,112 8,112NH3 Supply Capability 5,066 4,970 4,928 4,910 5,102 5,113 5,125NH3 Industrial Use 400 400 400 400 430 430 430Losses 373 366 362 361 374 375 376NH3AvailableforFerts. 4,292 4,204 4,166 4,149 4,298 4,308 4,319Non-NH3 Nitrogen 42 46 46 48 48 48 48N Ferts.Supply Potential 4,334 4,250 4,212 4,197 4,346 4,356 4,367N Ferts. Consumption 1,889 2,127 2,250 2,380 2,510 2,650 2,800Surplus (-Deficit) 2,445 2,123 1,962 1,817 1,836 1,706 1,567



West Europe 1993/94 1994195 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

NH3 Nominal Capacity 11,232 11,141 11,141 11,199 11,199 11,199 11,199NH3 Supply Capability 10,803 10,289 10,249 10,278 10,307 10,307 10,307NH3 Industrial Use 1,900 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200Losses 712 647 644 646 649 649 649NH3 Available for Ferts. 8,190 7,442 7,405 7,431 7,458 7,458 7,458Non-NH3 Nitrogen 96 96 96 96 96 96 96N Ferts.Supply Potential 8,286 7,538 7,501 7,527 7,554 7,554 7,554N Ferts. Consumption 9,356 9,550 9,250 9,190 9,140 9,070 9,000Surplus (-Deficit) (1,070) (2,012) (1,749) (1,663) (1,586) (1,516) (1,446)

FSU 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

NH3 Nominal Capacity 21,691 21,238 20,949 20,454 19,905 19,843 20,234NH3 Supply Capability 14,119 13,923 13,682 13,427 13,076 12,860 12,814NH3 Industrial Use 1,100 700 900 1,000 1,050 1,200 1,200Losses 1,042 1,058 1,023 994 962 933 929NH3 Available for Ferts- 11,978 12,165 11,760 11,433 11,064 10,727 10,685Non-NH3 Nitrogen 135 140 145 150 150 150 150N Ferts.Supply Potential 12,113 12,305 11,905 11,583 11,214 10,877 10,835N Ferts. Consumption 3,948 2,700 2,700 3,000 3,300 3,600 4,000Surplus (-Deficit) 8,165 9,605 9,205 8,583 7,914 7,277 6,835

OCEANIA 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

NH3 Nominal Capacity 568 568 568 602 602 602 602NH3 Supply Capability 511 511 511 527 542 542 542NH3 Industrial Use 230 230 230 230 230 230 230Losses 22 22 22 24 25 25 25NH3 Available for Ferts. 259 259 259 273 287 287 287Non-NH3 Nitrogen 9 9 9 9 9 9 9N Ferts.Supply Potential 268 268 268 282 296 296 296N Ferts. Consumption 639 714 730 773 820 852 890Surplus (-Deficit) (371) (446) (462) (491) (524) (556) (594)

PHOSPHATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES

1993/94 - 1999/00

Fertilizer Working Group - 22 -August 1995

REGIONAL PHOSPHORIC ACID CAPACITY (000 TONS P205)

1993194 1994195 1995196 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 AnnualGrowth

WORLD 34.139 34.166 34.721 35.519 36.058 36.522 36.532 1

AFRICA 5.394 5.394 5.509 5.644 5.644 5.674 5.674 1%4of which:South Africa 745 745 860 955 955 955 955 4%

AMERICA 13.552 13.629 13.694 13.812 13.824 13.84 13.844 0°/0

North America 12,091 12,137 12,202 12,320 12,332 12,352 12,352 0%Canada 486 486 486 486 4&6 486 486 0%USA 11.605 11,651 11,716 11,834 11,846 11,866 11,866 0%

Central America 749 749 749 749 749 749 749 0%Mexico 749 749 749 749 749 749 749 0%

South America 712 743 743 743 743 743 743 1%of which:Brazil 637 668 668 668 668 668 668 1%

ASIA 5,10d 5.205 5,570 6,000 6,527 6.947 6.967 5%

West Asia 2,300 2,327 2,350 2,690 2,690 2,890 2,910 4%of which:Israel 385 412 435 735 735 735 735 13%Turkey 557 557 557 557 557 557 557 0%

South Asia 763 763 782 782 782 782 782 0%of which.India 718 718 737 737 737 737 737 0%


REGIONAL PHOSPHORIC ACID CAPACITY (000 TONS P205)

1993/94 1994/95 1995196 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 AnnualGrowth

East Asia 2,045 2,115 2,438 2,528 3,055 3,275 3,275 9%of which:China 459 529 852 942 1,469 1,469 1,469 31%Japan 380 380 380 380 380 380 380 0%Korea Rep. of 555 555 555 555 555 555 555 0%

EUROPE 3 760 3.775 3.785 3.785 3.785 3779 3.769 0%

Eastern Europe 1,912 1,912 1,912 1,912 1,912 1,906 1,896 0%of which:Poland 689 689 689 689 689 689 689 0%Romania 362 362 362 362 362 362 362 0%Former Yugoslavia 645 645 645 645 645 645 645 0%

Western Europe 1,848 1,863 1,873 1,873 1,873 1,873 1,873 0%of which:Belgium-Lux. 260 260 270 270 270 270 270 1%Greece 241 241 241 241 241 241 241 0%

FSU 6.268 6.163 6.163 6j7 6.278 6.278 6.278 0%of which:Kazakhstan 467 467 467 467 467 467 467 0%Russian Federation 3,620 3,515 3,515 3,630 3,630 3,630 3,630 0%Ukraine 893 893 893 893 893 893 893 0%Uzbekistan 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 0%

OCEANIA 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 -14%


REGIONAL PHOSPHORIC ACID SUPPLY CAPABILITY (000 TONS P205)

1993/94 1994195 1995/96 1996197 1997198 1998/99 1999/2000 AnnualGrowth

WORLD 27.188 27.454 27.768 28.339 28.810 29.126 29.406 1%

AFRICA 4.901 4.913 4.965 5.062 5.115 5.130 5.149 1%of which:South Africa 671 671 722 817 860 860 860 4%

AMERICA 12.450 12.685 12.756 12.845 12.908 12.924 12.935 1Ye

North America 11,164 11,435 11,488 11,575 11,637 11,652 11,662 1%Canada 445 389 389 389 389 389 389 -2%USA 10,719 11,047 11,099 11,186 11,248 11,263 11,273 1%

Central America 563 557 560 562 562 562 562 0%Mexicu, 563 557 560 562 562 562 562 0%

South America 723 692 708 709 710 711 712 0%of which:Brazil 652 620 635 635 635 635 635 0%

ASIA 3_613 3.751 3.928 425 4.566 4.850 5.042 6fi

West Asia 1,483 1,536 1,558 1,693 1,830 1,937 2,039 5%of which:Israel 356 359 381 500 621 648 662 12%Turkey 390 390 390 390 390 390 390 0%

South Asia 442 456 468 474 474 474 474 1%of which:India 411 424 437 442 442 442 442 1%


REGIONAL PHOSPHORIC ACID SUPPLY CAPABILITY (000 TONS P205)

11993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1199T/98 1998199 1199912000 AnnualGrowth

East Asia 1,688 1,760 1,902 2,049 2,263 2,439 2,530 7%of which:China 27B 350 483 630 843 970 1,010 38%Japan 342 342 342 342 342 342 342 0%Korea Rep. of 555 555 555 555 555 555 555 0%

EUROPE 2.995 2.92 2.94 1 3.095 3.06 0%

Eastern Europe 1,309 1,334 1,337 1,429 1,433 1,434 1,430 1%of which:Poland 551 551 551 551 551 551 551 0%Romania 176 202 204 297 300 304 308 11%Former Yugoslavia 387 387 387 387 387 387 387 0%

Western Europe 1,686 1,593 1,657 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,662 0%of which:Belgium-Lux. 227 234 239 243 243 243 243 1%Greece 140 140 193 193 193 193 193 5%

F!;U 3.178 3.152 3.126 3.126 3;126 3.26 318of which:Kazakhstan 56 56 55 55 55 55 56 0%Russian Federation 1,858 1,843 1,827 1,827 1,827 1,827 1,864 0%Ukraine 319 317 314 314 314 314 320 0%Uzbekistan 531 526 522 522 522 522 532 0%

OCEANIA 51 26 Q 0 Q A140A


REGIONAL NON-PHOSPHORIC ACID SUPPLY CAPABILITY (000 TONS P205)

1993194 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997198 1998199 199912000 AnnualGrowth

WORLD 9.585 9.650 9.715 9.805 9 920 10.035 10.036 15/

AFRICA 520 530 640 550 560 1 671 1%

AMERICA 990 995 1.000 1.005 1.010 1.015 1.015 0%North America 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 0%Central America 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 0%South America 610 615 620 625 630 635 635 1%

ASIA 5.775 5.825 5.875 5.950 6.050 6.150 6.150 1G/West Asia 225 225 225 250 300 350 350 8%South Asia 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 0%East Asia 4,800 4,850 4,900 4,950 5,000 5,050 5,050 1%

EUROPE 1.150 1.150 1.150 1.15C 1.150 1.150 1.150 O%Eastern Europe 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 0%Western Europe 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 0%

FSU 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 0%

OCEANIA 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 OYo


REGIONAL PHOSPHATE FERTILIZER DEMAND (000 TONS P205)

1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 2004/05 AnnualGrowth

WORLD 28.813 28.606 29.625 30.750 31.555 32.505 33595 36.400 2%

AFRICA 1.155 1.120 1.205 1275 1.325 1.395 1.480 1.700 4%

AMERICA 7.346 7.411 7.420 7.645 7.770 7.960 8.195 8.850 2%North America 4,738 4,616 4,600 4,750 4,820 4,920 5,000 5,250 1%Central America 518 550 570 585 600 620 645 800 5%South America 2,090 2,245 2,250 2,310 2,350 2,420 2,550 2,800 3%

ASIA 12.937 13.8715 .830 15.630 16.170 16.750 17.400 18.90 4%0

West Asia 1,621 1,525 1,610 1,750 1,850 1,980 2,050 2,400 4%South Asia 3,338 3,500 3,700 4,050 4,370 4,520 4,750 5,000 4%EastAsia 7,978 8,850 9,520 9,830 9,950 10,250 10,600 11,500 4%

EUROPE 4.167 4.300 4.250 4.200 4.220 4.250 4.300 4.400 Q%Eastern Europe 563 650 700 750 820 900 1,000 1,200 9%Western Europe 3,604 3,650 3,550 3,450 3,400 3,350 3,300 3,200 -1%

FSU 2.035 800 800 850 900 950 1.000 t250 3%

OCEANIA 1 173 1.100 1120 1150 1.J70 1.200 1.220 1.300 1%1S


REGIONAL NON-FERTILIZER PHOSPHORIC ACID DEMAND (000 TONS P205)

1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 AnnualGrowth

WORLD 2.561 2.564 2.563 2.557 2.551 2.545 2,546

AFRICA 79 81 83 85 87 89 90

AMERICA 1.060 1.060 1.060 1.060 1.060 1.060 1.060North America 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 0%Central America 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 0%South America 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 0%

ASIA 542 543 544 545 546 547 547 0SWest Asia 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 0%South Asia 67 68 69 70 71 72 72 1%East Asia 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 0%

EUROPE 720 715 710 700 690 680 680 41%Eastern Europe 90 95 100 100 100 100 100 2%Western Europe 630 620 610 600 590 580 580 -1%

FSU 135 140 141 142 143 144 144 1%

OCEANIA 25 25 25 25 25 25 0%


WORLD AND REGIONAL PHOSPHATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES (000 TONS P205)

WORLD 1993/94 1994195 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 99912000

Phos. Acid Capacity 34,139 34,166 34,721 35,519 36,058 36,522 36,532Phos. Acid Supply Capability 27,188 27,454 27,768 28,339 28,810 29,126 29,406Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 2,561 2,564 2,563 2,557 2,551 2,545 2,546Fert. Acid Supply Capability 23,642 23,894 24,197 24,751 25,208 25,518 25,785Other Phosphate Supply 9,585 9,650 9,715 9,805 9,920 10,035 10,036Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 33,227 33,544 33,912 34,556 35,128 35,553 35,821Fert. Phos. Supply Potential 32,230 32,538 32,895 33,519 34,074 34,486 34,747Fert. Phos. Consumption 28,813 28,606 29,625 30,750 31,555 32,505 33,595Surplus f-Deficit) 3417 392 3 2 2 76 2.519 1.9 1I.2

AFRICA 1993/94 1994196 1995196 1996197 1997198 1998199 199912000

Phos. Acid Capacity 5,394 5,394 5,509 5,644 5,644 5,674 5,674Phos. Acid Supply Capability 4,901 4,913 4,965 5,062 5,115 5,130 5,149Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 79 81 83 85 87 89 90Fert. Acid Supply Capability 4,629 4,639 4,687 4,778 4,827 4,840 4,856Other Phosphate Supply 520 530 540 550 560 570 571Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 5,149 5,169 5,227 5,328 5,387 5,410 5,427Fert. Phos. Supply Potential 4,994 5,014 5,070 5,168 5,225 5,247 5,264Fert. Phos. Consumption 1,155 1,120 1,205 1,275 1,325 1,395 1,480Surplus (-Deficit) 39 .894 3 389 3.900 3.82 3.784

AMERICA 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 199899 1999/2000

Phos. Acid Capacity 13,552 13,629 13,694 13,812 13,824 13,844 13,844Phos. Acid Supply Capability 12,450 12,685 12,756 12,845 12,908 12,924 12,935Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 1,060 1,060 1,060 1,060 1,060 1,060 1,060Fert. Acid Supply Capability 10,934 11,394 11,228 11,314 11,374 11,390 11,400Other Phosphate Supply 990 995 1,000 1,005 1,010 1,015 1,015Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 11,924 12,389 12,228 12,319 12,384 12,405 12,415Fert. Phos. Supply Potential 11,567 12,017 11,861 11,949 12,013 12,033 12,042Fert. Phos. Consumption 7,346 7,411 7,420 7,645 7,770 7,960 8,195Surplus (-Deficit) 4.221 4.606 4.441 4.304 4.243 4.073 3.847

North America 1993194 1994195 1995/96 1996197 1997198 1998)99 1999/2000

Phos. Acid Capacity 12,091 12,137 12,202 12,320 12,332 12,352 12,352Phos. Acid Supply Capability 11,164 11,435 11,488 11,575 11,637 11,652 11,662Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 770 770 770 770 770 770 770Fert. Acid Supply Capability 9,978 10,239 10,289 10,373 10,432 10,447 10,456Other Phosphate Supply 250 250 250 250 250 250 250Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 10,228 10,489 10,539 10,623 10,682 10,697 10,706Fert. Phos. Supply Potential 9,921 10,174 10,223 10,304 10,362 10,376 10,385Fert. Phos. Consumption 4,738 4,616 4,600 4,750 4,820 4,920 5,000Surplus (-Deficit) 5,183 5,558 5,623 5,554 5,542 5,456 5,385



Central America 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 99912000

Phos. Acid Capacity 749 749 749 749 749 749 749Phos. Acid Supply Capability 563 557 560 562 562 562 562Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 110 110 110 110 110 110 110Fert. Acid Supply Capability 435 429 432 434 434 434 434Other Phosphate Supply 130 130 130 130 130 130 130Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 565 559 562 564 564 564 564Fert. Phos Supply Potential 548 543 545 547 547 547 547Fert. Phos. Consumption 518 550 570 585 600 620 645Surplus (-Deficit) 30 (7) (25) (38) (53) (73) (98)

South America 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

Phos. Acid Capacity 712 743 743 743 743 743 743Phos. Acid Supply Capability 723 692 708 709 710 711 712Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 180 180 180 180 180 180 180Fert. Acid Supply Capability 521 491 506 507 508 509 510Other Phosphate Supply 610 615 620 625 630 635 635Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 1,131 1,106 1,126 1,132 1,138 1,144 1,145Fert. Phos. Supply Potential 1.097 1,073 1,093 1,098 1,104 1,110 1,111Fert. Phos. Consumption 2,090 2,245 2,250 2,310 2,350 2,420 2,550Surplus (-Deficit) (993) (1,172) (1,157) (1,212) (1,246) (1,310) (1,439)

ASIA 1993/94 1994195 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 199912000

Phos. Acid Capacity 5,108 5,205 5,570 6,000 6,527 6,947 6,967Phos. Acid Supply Capability 3,613 3,751 3,928 4,215 4,566 4,850 5,042Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 542 543 544 545 546 547 547Fert. Acid Supply Capability 2,948 3,080 3,249 3,524 3,860 4,131 4,315Other Phosphate Supply 5,775 5,825 5,875 5,950 6,050 6,150 6,150Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 8,723 8,905 9,124 9,474 9,910 10,281 10,465Fert. Phos. Supply Potential 8,461 8,638 8,850 9,189 9,612 9,973 10,151Fert. Phos. Consumption 12.937 13,875 14,830 15,630 16,170 16,750 17,400Surplus (-Deficit) (4.476) 15.237) 980) (6.441) 16.558) (6.777) (7.249)

West Asia 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

Phos. Acid Capacity 2,300 2,327 2,350 2,690 2,690 2,890 2,910Phos. Acid Supply Capability 1,483 1,536 1,558 1,693 1,830 1,937 2,039Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 200 200 200 200 200 200 200Fert. Acid Supply Capability 1.232 1,282 1,304 1,433 1,565 1,668 1,765Other Phosphate Supply 225 225 225 250 300 350 350Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 1,457 1,507 1,529 1,683 1,865 2,018 2,115Fert. Phos. Supply Potential 1,413 1,462 1,483 1,633 1,809 1,957 2,052Fert. Phos. Consumption 1,621 1,525 1,610 1,750 1,850 1,980 2,050Surplus (-Deficit) (208) (63) (127) (117) (41) (23) 2

Fertilizer Working Group -31 -

August 1995


South Asia 1993194 1994/95 1995196 1996/97 1997198 1998199 999/2000

Phos. Acid Capacity 763 763 782 782 782 782 782

Phos. Acid Supply Capability 442 456 468 474 474 474 474

Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 67 68 69 70 71 72 72

Fert. Acid Supply Capability 360 372 383 388 387 386 386

Other Phosphate Supply 750 750 750 750 750 750 750

Total Fert. Phos. Sup Capab. 1,110 1,122 1,133 1.138 1.137 1,136 1,136

Fert. Phos. Supply Potential 1,077 1,088 1,099 1,103 1,102 1,102 1,102

Fert. Phos Consumption 3.338 3,500 3,700 4,050 4.370 4,520 4,750

Surplus (-Deficit) (2.261) (2,412) (2,601) (2,947) (3,268) (3,418) (3,648)

East Asia 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996197 1997/98 1998199 199912000

Phos. Acid Capacity 2,045 2,115 2,438 2,528 3,055 3,275 3,275

Phos. Acid Supply Capability 1,688 1,760 1 902 2,049 2,263 2,439 2,530


Fert. Acid Supply Capability 1,356 1,425 1,562 1,703 1,908 2,078 2,165

Other Phosphate Supply 4,800 4,850 4,900 4,950 5,000 5,050 5,050

Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 6.156 6,275 6,462 6,653 6,908 7,128 7,215


Fert. Phos. Consumption 7,978 8.850 9,520 9,830 9,950 10,250 10,600

Surplus (-Deficit) (2,006) (2,763) (3,252) (3,376) (3,249) (3,336) (3,602)

EUROPE 1993194 1994/95 1995196 1996/97 1997/98 1998199 1999/2000


Phos. Acid Supply Capability 2,995 2,927 2,994 3,091 3,095 3,096 3,092



Other Phosphate Supply 1,150 1,150 1,150 1,150 1,150 1,150 1,150

Total Fert. Phos. Sup Capab. 3,334 3,274 3,342 3,445 3,458 3,469 3,466


Fert. Phos Consumption 4,167 4.300 4,250 4,200 4,220 4,250 4,300

Surplus (-Deficit) (933) (1,124) (1,008) (858) (865) (885) (938)

East Europe 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 199912000


Phos. Acid Supply Capability 1,309 1,334 1,337 1,429 1.433 1,434 1,430



Other Phosphate Supply 600 600 600 600 600 600 600

Total Fert. Phos. Sup Capab. 1,770 1,790 1,787 1,876 1 880 1,881 1,877

Fert Phos. Supply Potential 1,717 1,736 1,734 1,820 1,823 1,824 1,821

Fert. Phos. Consumption 563 650 700 750 820 900 1,000

Surplus (-Deficit) 1,154 1,086 1,034 1,070 1,003 924 821



West Europe 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

Phos. Acid Capacity 1,848 1,863 1,873 1,873 1,873 1,873 1,873Phos. Acid Supply Capability 1,686 1,593 1,657 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,662Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 630 620 610 600 590 580 580Fert. Acid Supply Capability 1,014 934 1,005 1,019 1,029 1,038 1,038Other Phosphate Supply 550 550 550 550 550 550 550Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 1,564 1,484 1,555 1,569 1,579 1,588 1,588Fert. Phos. Supply Potential 1,517 1,440 1,509 1,522 1,531 1,541 1,541Fert. Phos. Consumption 3,604 3,650 3,550 3,450 3,400 3,350 3,300Surplus (-Deficit) (2,087) (2,210) (2,041) (1,928) (1,869) (1,809) (1,759)

FSU 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

Phos. Acid Capacity 6,268 6,163 6,163 6,278 6,278 6,278 6,278Phos. Acid Supply Capability 3,178 3,152 3,126 3,126 3,126 3,126 3,188Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 135 140 141 142 143 144 144Fert. Acid Supply Capability 2,921 2,891 2,865 2,864 2,863 2,862 2,922Other Phosphate Supply 500 500 500 500 500 500 500Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 3,421 3,391 3,365 3,364 3,363 3,362 3,422Fert. Phos. Supply Potential 3,319 3,290 3,264 3,263 3,262 3,261 3,320Fert. Phos. Consumption 2,035 800 800 850 900 950 1,000SurOlus (-Deficit) 1.284 2.490 2.464 2.413 2.362 2.311 2.320

OCEANIA 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

Phos. Acid Capacity 57 0 0 0 0 0 0Phos. Acid Supply Capability 51 26 0 0 0 0 0Non-Fert. Acid Consumption 25 25 25 25 25 25 25Fert. Acid Supply Capability 25 1 (24) (24) (24) (24) (24)Other Phosphate Supply 650 650 650 650 650 650 650Total Fert. Phos. Sup. Capab. 675 651 626 626 626 626 626Fert. Phos. Supply Potential 655 631 607 607 607 607 607Fert. Phos. Consumption 1,173 1,100 1,120 1,150 1,170 1,200 1,220Sur[lus (-Deficit) (518) (46) (51M (543) (563) (593) (613

POTASH SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES

1993/94 - 1999/00


REGIONAL POTASH MINE CAPACITY (000 TONS K20)

1993194 1994196 1995196 1996197 1997/98 1998199 1S999/2000 AnnualGrot

WORLD 3B,327 36.063 36.144 36.004 34.9B 34.83 34.984 -1%

AFRICA _ a Q Q Q Q 0 f

AMERIC,A 14.367 14.463 14,204 14.314 14.604 14.66 14,664 g

North America 14,017 14,093 13,844 13,844 13,144 13,844 13,144 0%Canada 12,282 12,282 12,282 12,282 12,282 12,282 12,282 0%USA 1 ,735 1 ,81 1 1 ,562 1,562 1 ,562 1 ,562 1 ,562 -1 %

Central Amerlca 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%

South America 340 360 360 470 660 7110 710 1B%0/

AMIA 228 z,S 2,f2 2.67 2 C9 2.71 _Q 45%

-Nest Asia 2,220 2,460 2,460 2,490 2,490 2,490 2,490 20%

South Asia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Q

East Asia 60 60 1 0 80 130 220 370 740%

EUROPE 1,735 1,1 1.62Q 15 162 1,562 1 -12%

Easterm Europe 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%

Western Europe 7,20 7,120 6,690 6,390 6,390 6,090 6,090 -3%

Sot 12.1A0 11.970 0i.830 11.730 11480 1 .480 011,48%of which:Russian Federation 6,460 6,460 6,460 6,460 6,460 6,460 6,460 0%

OCEANIA Q 0 Q Q 0Q Q 0 ON


REGIONAL POTASH MINE SUPPLY CAPABILITY (000 TONS K20)

1993/94 1994/86 1995/9B 199B/97 1997198 1998/S9 1999/2000 AnnualGrwt

WQORL 29S66 29.647 29 071 28LBSQ 27.S44 27.821 27.74

AFRICA Q 2 -Q Q 0 Q

AMERICA 13.033 12.930 12.858 12.780 12889 12.978 12 99Q0

North America 12,761 12,650 12,672 12,480 12,460 12,460 12,400 0%Canada 11,054 11,054 11,054 11,054 11,054 11,054 11,054 0%USA 1,707 1,596 1,518 1,406 1,406 1,406 1,406 -3%

Central America 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%

South America 272 280 286 320 429 518 530 14%

ASIA L2Zi Z2 38 z. 2J 681 2.2 3%

West Asia 2,220 2,340 2,460 2,475 2,490 2,490 2,490 2%

South Asia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%

East Asia 40 41 42 49 63 91 172 47%

EUROPE t39u t4 S.93 6.6S 6,46 S.37 5,2ffi :2

Eastern Europe 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%

Western Europe 6,339 6,469 5,936 5,651 5,461 5,371 5,281 -2eh

EFU 7.93 7iI 86 7 ZAN7 7.642 am92 42 2#of which:Russian Federation 4,199 4,199 4,199 4,199 4,199 4,199 4,199 0%

OCEANIA 0 Q 0 Q a Q 0 ox

The Fertilizer Working Group - 36 -

August 1995

REGIONAL POTASH FERTILIZER DEMAND (000 TONS K20)

1993194 1994/95 1995)96 1996/97 1997198 1998/99 J999/200 200410S' AnnualGrowth

WORL 19098 19 318 19,480 20.150 20.703 21.265 21.845 24.550 2%

AFRICA 498 520 545 560 578 595 610 7Q W

AMERICA 7268 7,32 7 345 7.540 7.665 7.820 7.925 85 1%/ANorth America 5,095 5,050 5,000 5,100 5,180 5,270 5,320 5,500 1%Central America 286 302 315 340 355 380 400 500 6%South America 1,887 2,020 2,030 2,100 2,130 2,170 2,205 2,500 3%

ASIA 4.762 5 515 5.640 5.940 6.190 6.440 6.730 7.950 60West Asia 196 180 190 200 210 220 230 250 2%SouthAsia 1,054 1,110 1,150 1,300 1,450 1,580 1,750 2,000 7%East Asia 3,512 4,225 4,300 4,440 4,530 4,640 4,750 5,700 5%

EUROPE 4.498 4,616 4.650 4.700 4.750 4.780 4.840 50 1%Eastern Europe 423 566 650 720 800 900 1,000 1,200 15%Western Europe 4,075 4,050 4,000 3,980 3,950 3,880 3,840 3,800 -1%

FSU 1,779 1,000 1 000 1,100 1200 1.300 1.400 2.000 1%1

OCEANIA 293 295 300 310 320 330 340 400 3%


REGIONAL TECHNICAL GRADE POTASH PRODUCTION (000 TONS K20)

1993/94 1994195 1995196 1996197 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 Annual

WORLD 1.296 1.316 1.326 1,326 1.326 1.326 1.326 0%

AFRICA 0 0 Q 0 0 0Q Q 0

AMERICA 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 0North America 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 0%Central America 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%South America 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%

ASIA 26 26 _ 26 26 26 26 Q%4WestAsia 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 0%South Asia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%EastAsia 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 0%

EUROPE 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 0YoEastern Europe 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%Western Europe 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 0%

FSU 90 100 100 100 100 100 100

OCEANIA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


WORLD AND REGIONAL POTASH SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES (000 TONS K20)

WORLD TOTAL 1993194 1994/95 1995196 1996197 1997)98 1199U99 '11992000

Potash Mine Capacity 36,627 36,063 35,144 35,004 34,964 34,834 34,984Potash Mine Supply Capabilit 29,566 29,647 29,071 28,650 27,544 27,821 27,774Technical Potash Production 1,316 1,326 1,326 1,326 1,326 1,326 1,326Potash Fert. Supply Potential 26,948 27,019 26,458 26,050 25,046 25,294 25,249Potash Fertilizer Consumption 19,098 19,318 19,480 20,150 20,703 21,265 21,845Surplus (-Deficit) 7,850 7,701 6,978 5,900 4,343 4,029 3,404

AFRICA 1993194 1994/95 1995U96 1996/97 1997198 1998/99 1999/2000

Potash Mine Capacity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Potash Mine Supply Capabilit 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Technical Potash Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Potash Fert. Supply Potential 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Potash Fertilizer Consumption 498 520 545 560 578 595 610Surplus (-Deficit) (498) (520) (545) (560) (578) (595) (610)

AMERICA 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997198 1998/99 199912000

Potash Mine Capacity 14,357 14,453 14,204 14,314 14,504 14,554 14,554Potash Mine Supply Capabilit 13,033 12,930 12,858 12,780 12,889 12,978 12,990Technical Potash Production 800 800 800 800 800 800 800Potash Fert. Supply Potential 11,964 11,863 11,792 11,714 11,818 11,903 11,914Potash Fertilizer Consumption 7,268 7,372 7,345 7,540 7,665 7,820 7,925Surplus (-Deficit) 4,696 4,491 4,447 4,174 4,153 4,083 3,989

North America 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

Potash Mine Capacity 14,017 14,093 13,844 13,844 13,844 13,844 13,844Potash Mine Supply Capabilit 12,761 12,650 12,572 12,460 12,460 12,460 12,460Technical Potash Production 800 800 800 800 800 800 800Potash Fert. Supply Potential 11,706 11,597 11,520 11,410 11,410 11,410 11,410Potash Fertilizer Consumption 5,095 5,050 5,000 5,100 5,180 5,270 5,320Surplus (-Deficit) 6,611 6,547 6,520 6,310 6,230 6,140 6,090

Central America 1993/94 1994195 1995196 1996/97 1997/98 1998199 1999/2000

Potash Mine Capacity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Potash Mine Supply Capabilit 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Technical Potash Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Potash Fert. Supply Potential 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Potash Fertilizer Consumption 286 302 315 340 355 380 400Surplus (-Deficit) (286) (302) (315) (340) (355) (380) (400)


WORLD AND REGIONAL POTASH SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES (000 TONS K20)

South America 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997198 1998199 199912000

Potash Mine Capacity 340 360 360 470 660 710 710Potash Mine Supply Capabilit 272 280 286 320 429 518 530Technical Potash Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Potash Fert. Supply Potential 258 266 272 304 408 492 504Potash Fertilizer Consumption 1,887 2,020 2,030 2,100 2,130 2,170 2,205Surplus (-Deficit) (1,629) (1,754) (1,758) (1,796) (1,722) (1,678) (1,702)

ASIA 1993/94 1994195 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 19991200

Potash Mine Capacity 2,280 2,520 2,520 2,570 2,590 2,710 2,860Potash Mine Supply Capabilit 2,260 2,381 2,502 2,524 2,553 2,581 2,662Technical Potash Production 26 26 26 26 26 26 26Potash Fert. Supply Potential 2,121 2,236 2,351 2,372 2,399 2,426 2,502Potash Fertilizer Consumption 4,762 5,515 5,640 5,940 6,190 6,440 6,730Surplus (-Deficit) (2,641) (3,279) (3,289) (3,568) (3,791) (4,014) (4,228)

West Asia 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998199 199912000

Potash Mine Capacity 2,220 2,460 2,460 2,490 2,490 2,490 2,490Potash Mine Supply Capabilit 2,220 2,340 2,460 2,475 2,490 2,490 2,490Technical Potash Production 15 15 15 15 15 15 15Potash Fert. Supply Potential 2,094 2,208 2,322 2,336 2,351 2,351 2,351Potash Fertilizer Consumption 196 180 190 200 210 220 230Surplus (-Deficit) 1,898 2,028 2,132 2,136 2,141 2,131 2,121

South Asia 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997198 1998/99 1999/2000


East Asia 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000



WORLD AND REGIONAL POTASH SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES (000 TONS K(20)

EUROPE 1993194 1994195 1996196 199M/97 1997/9 119 999/2000

Potash Mine Capacity 7,840 7,120 6,590 6,390 6,390 6,090 6,090Potash Mine Supply Capabilit 6,339 6,469 5,936 5,651 5,461 5,371 5,281Technical Potash Production 400 400 400 400 400 400 400Potash Fert. Supply Potential 5,812 5,939 5,417 5,137 4,951 4,863 4,775Potash Fertilizer Consumption 4,498 4,616 4,650 4,700 4,750 4,780 4,840Surplus (-DefIcIt) 1,314 1,323 787 437 201 83 (65)

East Europe 1993/94 1994/95 1995196 1996/97 1997198 1998199 1999/2000

Potash Mine Capacity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Potash Mine Supply Capabilit 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Technical Potash Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Potash Fert. Supply Potential 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Potash Fertilizer Consumption 423 566 650 720 800 900 1.000Surplus (-Deficit) (423) (666) (650) (720) (800) (900) (1,000)

West Europe 1993194 1994/95 199519 1996/97 1997/98 1996191 199912000

Potash Mine Capacity 7,840 7,120 6,590 6,390 6,390 6,090 6,090Potash Mine Supply Capabilit 6,339 6,469 5,936 5,651 5,461 5,371 5,281Technical Potash Production 400 400 400 400 400 400 400Potash Fert. Supply Potential 5,812 5,939 5,417 5,137 4,951 4,863 4,775Potash Fertilizer Consumption 4,075 4,050 4,000 3,980 3,950 3,880 3,840Surplus (-DeficIt) 1,737 1,889 1,417 1,157 1,001 983 936

El 1993194 1994196 199596 1991197 1997198 1998/99 19912000

Potash Mine Capacity 12,150 11,970 11,830 11,730 11,480 11,480 11,480Potash Mine Supply Capabilit 7,935 7,869 7,776 7,696 6,642 6,892 6,842Technical Potash Production 90 100 100 100 100 100 100Potash Fert. Supply Potential 7,051 6,982 6,898 6,826 5,878 6,103 6,058Potash Fertilizer Consumpfion 1,779 1,000 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400Surplus (-DeflcIt) 5,272 5,982 5,898 5,726 4,678 4,803 4,58U

OCEANIA 1993194 1994/96 1996/96 199U197 1997/98 1989U91 199912000

Potash Mine Capacity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Potash Mine Supply Capabilit 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Technical Potash Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Potash Fert. Supply Potential 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Potash Fertilizer Consumption 293 295 300 310 320 330 340Surplus (-DeficIt) (293) (295) (300) (310) (320) (330) (340)

FERTILIZER SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES SUMMARY

1993194 - 1999/00

The Fertilizer Working Group 42August 1995

FERTILIZER SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES SUMMARY(Nitrogen, Phosphate, and Potash)

WORLD TOTAL 1993/94 1994195 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

Fertilizer Supply Potential 133,666 134,153 135,989 138,347 140,109 142,248 143,340Fertilizer Consumption 120,337 120,327 122,855 126,853 130,508 133,777 137,510Surplus (-Deficit) 13,329 13,826 13,134 11,494 9,601 8,471 5,830

AFRICA 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000


AMERICA

North America 1993/94 1994/95 1996/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000


Central America 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000


South America 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

Fertilizer Supply Potential 2,650 2,613 2,660 2,719 2,892 3,074 3,257Fertilizer Consumption 6,016 6,465 6,485 6,730 6,920 7,160 7,455Surplus (-Deficit) (3,366) (3,852) (3,825) (4,011) (4,028) (4,086) (4,198)

AMA

West Asia 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000


The Fertilizer Working Group 43August 1995

FERTILIZER SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES SUMMARY

South Asia 19934 19415 1996/ 1996/97 1997198 1998/99 199912000


East Asia 1993194 1994195 1995196 1996/97 1997198 1998/99 199912000


EUROPE

East Europe 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996197 1997/98 1998199 199912000


West Europe 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000


FSU 1993/94 1994J95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000


OCEANIA 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000

Fertilizer Supply Potential 923 899 875 889 903 903 903Fertilizer Consumption 2,105 2,109 2,150 2,233 2,310 2,382 2,450Surplus (-Deficit) (1,182) (1,210) (1,275) (1,344) (1,407) (1,479) (1,547)

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RECENT WORLD BANK TECHNICAL PAPERS (continued)

No. 272 Greaney and Kellaghan, Eqauity Issues in Public Examinations in Developing Countries

No. 273 Grimshaw and Helfer, editors, Vetiver Grassfor Soil and Water Conservation, Land Rehabilitation, and EmbankmentStabilization: A Collection of Papers and Newsletters Compiled by the Vetiver Network

No. 274 Govindaraj, Murray, and Chellaraj, Health Expenditures in Latin America

No. 275 Heggie, Management and Financing of Roads: An Agendafor Reform

No. 276 Johnson, Quality Review Schemes for Auditors: Their Potential for Sub-Saharan Africa

No. 277 Convery, Applying Environmental Economics in Africa

No. 278 Wijetilleke and Karunaratne, Air Quality Management: Considerationsfor Developing Countries

No. 279 Anderson and Ahmed, The Casefor Solar Energy Investments

No. 280 Rowat, Malik, and Dakolias, Judicial Reform in Latin America and the Caribbean: Proceedings of a World Bank Conference

No. 281 Shen and Contreras-Hermosilla, Environmental and Economic Issues in Forestry: Selected Case Studiesin India

No. 282 Kim and Benton, Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP)

No. 283 Jacobsen, Scobie and Duncan, Statutory Intervention in Agricultural Marketing: A New Zealand Perspective

No. 284 Valdes and Schaeffer in collaboration with Roldos and Chiara, Surveillance of Agricultural Price and Trade Policies: AHandbookfor Uruguay

No. 285 Brehm and Castro, The Market for Water Rights in Chile: Major Issues

No. 286 Tavoulareas and Charpentier, Clean Coal Technologiesfor Developing Countries

No. 287 Gillham, Bell, Arin, Matthews, Rumeur, and Hearn, Cotton Production Prospectsfor the Next Decade

No. 288 Biggs, Shaw, and Srivastiva, Technological Capabilities and Learning in African Enterprises

No. 289 Dinar, Seidl, Olem, Jorden, Duda, and Johnson, Restoring and Protecting the World's Lakes and Reservoirs

No. 290 Weijenberg, Dagg, Kampen Kalunda, Mailu, Ketema, Navarro, and Abdi Noor, Strengthening National AgricultualResearcht Systems in Eastern and Central Africa: A Frameworkfor Action

No. 291 Valdes and Schaeffer in collaboration with Errazuriz and Francisco, Surveillance of Agricultural Price and TradePolicies: A Handbookfor Chile

No. 292 Gorriz, Subramanian, and Simas, Irrigation Management Transfer in Mexico: Process and Progress

No. 293 Preker and Feachem, Market Mechanisms and the Health Sector in Central and Eastern Europe

No. 294 Valdes and Schaeffer in collaboration with Sturzenegger and Bebczuk, Surveillance ofAgricultural Price and Trade Policies: A Handbookfor Argentina

No. 295 Pohl, Jedrzejczak, and Anderson, Creating Capital Markets in Central and Eastern Europe

No. 296 Stassen, Small-Scale Biomass Gasifiers for Heat and Power: A Global Review

No. 297 Bulatao, Key Indicators for Family Planning Projects

No. 298 Odaga and Heneveld, Girls and Schools in Sub-Saharan Africa: From Analysis to Action

No. 299 Tamale, Jones, and Pswarayi-Riddihough, Technologies Related to Participatory Forestry in Tropicaland Subtropical Countries

No. 300 Oram and de Haan, Technologies for Rainfed Agriculture in Mediterranean Climates: A Review of World Bank Experiences

No. 301 Edited by Mohan, Bibliography of Publications: Techinical Department, Africa Region, July 1987 to April 1995

No. 302 Baldry, Calamari, and Yameogo, Environmental Impact Assessment of Settlement and Development in the Upper LerabaBasin

No. 303 Heneveld and Craig, Schools Count: World Bank Project Designs and the Quality of Primary Education inSub-Saharan Africa

No. 304 Foley, Photovoltaic Applications in Rural Areas of the Developing World

No. 306 Muir and Saba, Improving State Enterprise Performance: The Role of Initernal and External Incentives

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