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Document of The World Bank
Report No: ICR2939
IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT (IBRD-P120170)
ON A
LOAN
IN THE AMOUNT OF US$ 300.75 MILLION
TO
THE UNITED MEXICAN STATES
FOR A
STRENGTHENING SOCIAL RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE DEVELOPMENT POLICY LOAN
September 30, 2013
Sustainable Development Department Mexico and Colombia Country Management Unit Latin America and the Caribbean Region
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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
(Exchange Rate Effective September 30, 2013)
Currency Unit = Mexican Peso
MX$1.00 = US$0.07
US$1.00 = MX$13.17
FISCAL YEAR
January 1 – December 31
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
ADL Local Development Agents (Agentes de Desarrollo Local) AFD French Development Agency (Agence Française de Développement) ATL Local Technical Agents (Agentes Técnicos Locales) CADENA Component for Natural Disasters Response in the Agriculture Sector
(Componente de Atención a Desastres Naturales en el Sector
Agropuecuario y Pesquero)
CCA Climate Change Adaptation
CCKP
CCPI
Climate Change Knowledge Platform
Climate Change Performance Index
CENAPRED National Center for Disaster Prevention (Centro Nacional para la
Prevención de Desastres)
CICC Inter-secretarial Commission on Climate Change (Comisión
Intersecretarial de Cambio Climático)
CONABIO National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity
(Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad)
CONAFOR National Forestry Commission (Comisión Nacional Forestal)
CONAP National Council of Protected Natural Areas (Consejo Nacional de Áreas
Naturales Protegidas)
CONAVI National Housing Commission (Comisión Nacional de Vivienda)
COP Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC
CPS Country Partnership Strategy
CTC Consultative Technical Council (Consejo Técnico Consultivo)
CTF Clean Technology Fund
DOF Official Gazette of the Federation (Diario Oficial de la Federación)
DPL Development Policy Loan
DUIS Integrally sustainable urban development (Desarrollos Urbanos
Integrales Sustentables)
ENACC National Climate Change Strategy (Estrategia Nacional de Cambio
Climático)
ESW Economic and Sector Work
FONDEN Fund for Natural Disasters (Fondo para Desastres Naturales)
FY Fiscal Year
GEF Global Environment Facility
3
GoM Government of Mexico
IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
INECC National Institute for Ecology and Climate Change (Instituto Nacional de
Ecología y Cambio Climático)
INFONAVIT
National Workers Housing Fund (Instituto del Fondo Nacional de la
Vivienda para los Trabajadores)
JIRA
Environment Intermunicipal Board for the Integral Management of the
Lower Basin of the Ayuquila River (Junta Intermunicipal de Medio
Ambiente para la Gestion Integral de la Cuenca Baja del Río Ayuquila)
NCCS National Climate Change System (Sistema Nacional de Cambio
Climático)
PACMUN Municipal Climate Change Action Plan (Plan de Acción Climática
Municipal)
PEACC State Climate Change Action Programs (Programas Estatales de Acción
ante el Cambio Climático)
PECC
Special Program for Climate Change (Programa Especial de Cambio
Climático)
PEF Federal Expenditure Budget (Presupuesto de Egresos de la Federación)
PET Temporary Employment Program (Programa de Empleo Temporal)
PETi
Emergency Temporary Employment Program (Programa de Empleo
Temporal inmediato)
PND National Development Plan (Plan Nacional de Desarrollo)
PRAH
Program for Prevention of Risks in Human Settlements (Programa de
Prevención de Riesgos en los Asentamientos Humanos)
PSIA Poverty and Social Impact Analysis
REDD+ Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation,
Conservation of Forest Carbon Stocks, Sustainable Management of Forest
and Enhancement of Forest Carbon Stocks in Developing Countries
SAGARPA Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (Secretaría de
Agricultura, Ganadería, Desarrollo Rural, Pesca y Alimentación)
SEDATU Ministry of Agricultural, Territorial and Urban Development (Secretaría
de Desarrollo Agrario, Territorial y Urbano)
SEDESOL Ministry of Social Development (Secretaría de Desarrollo Social)
SEGOB Ministry of Interior (Secretaría de Gobernación)
SEMARNAT
Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (Secretaría de Medio
Ambiente y Recursos Naturales)
SHCP Ministry of Finance (Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público)
SHF Federal Mortgage Agency (Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal)
TA Technical Assistance
TAP Technical Assistance Program
UNDP United Nations Development Program
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
4
Vice President: Hasan A. Tuluy
Country Director: Gloria M. Grandolini
Sector Director: Ede J. Ijjasz-Vasquez
Sector Manager: Markus Kostner
Sector Leader: Alexandra Ortiz
Task Team Leader: Rodrigo Serrano-Berthet
Co-Task Team Leader: Angélica Núñez
Co-Task Team Leader: Erick Fernandes
ICR Team Leader: Martin Lenihan
MEXICO
STRENGTHENING SOCIAL RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
DEVELOPMENT POLICY LOAN
TABLE OF CONTENTS
A. Basic Information ....................................................................................................... v B. Key Dates ................................................................................................................... v C. Ratings Summary ....................................................................................................... v
D. Sector and Theme Codes ........................................................................................... vi E. Bank Staff .................................................................................................................. vi F. Results Framework Analysis .................................................................................... vii G. Ratings of Program Performance in ISRs ................................................................. ix H. Restructuring (if any) ................................................................................................ ix
1. Program Context, Development Objectives and Design ............................................ 1 1.1 Context at Appraisal ............................................................................................. 1 1.2 Original Program Development Objectives (PDO) and Key Indicators (as
approved) .................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Revised PDO (as approved by original approving authority) and Key Indicators,
and Reasons/Justification ............................................................................................ 4
1.4 Original Policy Areas Recognized by the Program (as approved) ....................... 4 1.5 Revised Policy Areas ............................................................................................ 6
2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes .............................................. 7 2.1 Program Performance ........................................................................................... 7 2.2 Major Factors Affecting Implementation ............................................................. 7 2.3 Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Design, Implementation and Utilization: ..... 8
2.4 Expected Next Phase/Follow-up Operation (if any): ............................................ 9 3. Assessment of Outcomes .......................................................................................... 10
3.1 Relevance of Objectives, Design and Implementation ....................................... 10 3.2 Achievement of Program Development Objectives ........................................... 11 3.3 Justification of Overall Outcome Rating ............................................................ 15 3.4 Overarching Themes, Other Outcomes and Impacts .......................................... 15 3.5 Summary of Findings of Beneficiary Survey and/or Stakeholder Workshops ... 18
4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome ......................................................... 18 5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance ..................................................... 19
5.1 Bank Performance ............................................................................................... 19 5.2 Borrower Performance ........................................................................................ 19
6. Lessons Learned........................................................................................................ 20 7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners........... 21
Annex 1. Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes ............. 22 Annex 2. Beneficiary Survey Results ........................................................................... 24 Annex 3. Stakeholder Workshop Report and Results ................................................... 25 Annex 4. Summary of Borrower's ICR and/or Comments on Draft ICR ..................... 26
Annex 5. Comments of Co-financiers .......................................................................... 27
5
A. Basic Information
Country: Mexico Program Name:
Strengthening Social
Resilience to Climate
Change
Program ID: P120170 L/C/TF Number(s): IBRD-81340
ICR Date: 10/01/2013 ICR Type: Core ICR
Lending Instrument: DPL Borrower: THE UNITED
MEXICAN STATES
Original Total
Commitment: USD 300.75M Disbursed Amount: USD 300.75M
Revised Amount: USD 300.75M
Implementing Agencies:
Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT)
Cofinanciers and Other External Partners:
AGENCE FRANCAISE DE DEVELOPPEMENT
B. Key Dates
Process Date Process Original Date Revised / Actual
Date(s)
Concept Review: 02/28/2011 Effectiveness: 11/29/2012 11/29/2012
Appraisal: 01/17/2012 Restructuring(s):
Approval: 03/01/2012 Mid-term Review:
Closing: 03/30/2013 03/30/2013
C. Ratings Summary
C.1 Performance Rating by ICR
Outcomes: Satisfactory
Risk to Development Outcome: Low or Negligible
Bank Performance: Satisfactory
Borrower Performance: Satisfactory
C.2 Detailed Ratings of Bank and Borrower Performance (by ICR)
Bank Ratings Borrower Ratings
Quality at Entry: Satisfactory Government: Satisfactory
Quality of Supervision: Satisfactory Implementing
Agency/Agencies: Satisfactory
Overall Bank
Performance: Satisfactory
Overall Borrower
Performance: Satisfactory
6
C.3 Quality at Entry and Implementation Performance Indicators
Implementation
Performance Indicators
QAG Assessments
(if any) Rating:
Potential Problem
Program at any time
(Yes/No):
No Quality at Entry
(QEA): None
Problem Program at any
time (Yes/No): No
Quality of
Supervision (QSA): None
DO rating before
Closing/Inactive status: Satisfactory
D. Sector and Theme Codes
Original Actual
Sector Code (as % of total Bank financing)
Forestry 9 9
Irrigation and drainage 4 4
Non-compulsory pensions and insurance 11 11
Sub-national government administration 76 76
Theme Code (as % of total Bank financing)
Natural disaster management 28 28
Other environment and natural resources management 29 29
Other rural development 6 6
Other urban development 25 25
Participation and civic engagement 12 12
E. Bank Staff
Positions At ICR At Approval
Vice President: Hasan A. Tuluy Hasan A. Tuluy
Country Director: Gloria M. Grandolini Gloria M. Grandolini
Sector Manager: Markus Kostner Maninder S. Gill
Program Team Leader: Rodrigo Serrano-Berthet Rodrigo Serrano-Berthet
ICR Team Leader: Martin Henry Lenihan
ICR Primary Author: Martin Henry Lenihan
Ana Paola Lopez Espinosa
7
F. Results Framework Analysis
Program Development Objectives (from Project Appraisal Document) The objective of this operation is to strengthen social resilience to climate change through
policies that will directly and indirectly benefit the poor by improving: (a) adaptation
planning oriented to the state level; (b) disaster risk reduction and territorial development
actions oriented to the municipal level; and (c) sustainable community forest
management at the community level.
Revised Program Development Objectives (if any, as approved by original approving
authority)
The PDO was not modified during the life of the loan.
(a) PDO Indicator(s)
Indicator Baseline Value
Original Target
Values (from
approval
documents)
Formally
Revised
Target
Values
Actual Value
Achieved at
Completion or
Target Years
Indicator 1 :
Number of states that completed during 2012-13 Climate Change Action
Programs that included Specific Adaptation Measures to promote social
resilience
Value
(quantitative or
Qualitative)
o 3 8
Date achieved 01/27/2012 03/02/2012 09/01/2013
Comments
(incl. %
achievement)
Achieved (267% achievement): Currently there are 8 climate change action
plans that have been prepared since the program was agreed. All of which
include measures to promote social resilience
Indicator 2 :
Inclusion of Measures supported by SEMARNAT to address unsustainable
growth of Tourism in coastal areas and livelihood co-benefits of climate
policies for indigenous communities in the Regional Strategy for Climate
Change Adaptation in the Yucatan
Value
(quantitative or
Qualitative)
0 1 0
Date achieved 01/27/2012 03/02/2012 09/01/2013
Comments
(incl. %
achievement)
Partially achieved (In progress) A roadmap for the strategy has been prepared
during consultative workshops with stakeholders from each of the Yucatan
Peninsula States, and public commitments have been made by state
government participants
Indicator 3 : Number of State Climate Change Action Programs that included civil society
participation in the design of social resilience initiatives
Value
(quantitative or
Qualitative)
0 3 8
Date achieved 01/27/2012 03/02/2012 09/01/2013
Comments Achieved (267% achievement): All of the climate change action plans which
8
(incl. %
achievement)
have been prepared involved consultation workshops, which included diverse
civil society stakeholders, as well as public consultation of the final draft prior
to publication.
Indicator 4 :
Number of municipalities with high and very high scores in PRAH's disaster
risk index which are implementing risk reduction institutional strengthening
and investment activities supported by PRAH.
Value
(quantitative or
Qualitative)
0 60 105
Date achieved 01/27/2012 03/02/2012 09/01/2013
Comments
(incl. %
achievement)
Achieved (175% achievement): 105 Municipalities in the high or very high risk
category benefited from institutional strengthening through the preparation of
risk atlases.
Indicator 5 :
Number of urban development projects evaluated within the DUIS Working
Group that have incorporated at least the of criteria specified in SEDESOL's
Sustainable
Urban Development Guidelines
Value
(quantitative or
Qualitative)
0 5 10
Date achieved 01/27/2012 03/02/2012 09/01/2013
Comments
(incl. %
achievement)
Achieved (200%) So far, ten urban development projects have been approved
by the DUIS working Group in accordance with the sustainable urban
development guidelines which is now mandatory.
Indicator 6 : Percentage of eligible surface that is covered by climate risk insurance
Value
(quantitative or
Qualitative)
69 74 75.4%
Date achieved 01/27/2012 03/02/2012 09/01/2013
Comments
(incl. %
achievement)
Achieved (102%). 70% of new beneficiaries of CADENA were producers
owning less than 20ha’s. These vulnerable smallholders are now enrolled in a
program designed to protect their income from catastrophic climate events.
Indicator 7 :
Number of REDD+ collaboration initiatives between CONAFOR and/or
SAGARPA and subnational Governments in REDD+ Early Action areas that
are
operational
Value
(quantitative or
Qualitative)
0 2 7
Date achieved 01/27/2012 03/02/2012 09/01/2013
Comments
(incl. %
achievement)
Achieved (350% achievement): Seven such collaborative initiatives have been
established. These associations constitute an inter-institutional platform to
bring together municipal governments with representatives of federal and state-
level agencies
Indicator 8 :
Active social participation in REDD+ policy making at sub-national level
through the operation of local CTCREDD+ (participation of civil society in all
meetings as reflected in minutes, with a minimum 3 meetings per year per
CTC).
9
Value
(quantitative or
Qualitative)
0 6 6
Date achieved 01/27/2012 03/02/2012 09/01/2013
Comments
(incl. %
achievement)
Achieved (100% achievement): sub-national events were held (2 in Campeche
and 4 in Quintana Roo). The minutes of these events confirmed civil society
participation.
Indicator 9 : Percentage of participating communities in REDD+ Early Action Areas
receiving support from regional landscape management agents.
Value
(quantitative or
Qualitative)
0 33% 15.7%
Date achieved 01/27/2012 03/02/2012 09/01/2013
Comments
(incl. %
achievement)
Partially achieved (47% achievement): 15.7% of participating communities
received support (169 communities out of 1,074).
(b) Intermediate Outcome Indicator(s)
Indicator Baseline Value
Original Target
Values (from
approval
documents)
Formally
Revised
Target Values
Actual Value
Achieved at
Completion or
Target Years
Indicator 1 : There was no IOI for this operation
Value
(quantitative or
Qualitative)
Date achieved
Comments
(incl. %
achievement)
G. Ratings of Program Performance in ISRs
No. Date ISR
Archived DO IP
Actual
Disbursements
(USD millions)
1 10/12/2012 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0.00
H. Restructuring (if any)
Not Applicable
1
1. Program Context, Development Objectives and Design
1.1 Context at Appraisal
1. Climate change will compound existing climatic risks, which already affect Mexico
disproportionately due to its arid geography, extensive low lying coastal areas, and
exposure to hydromet events arising in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico.
Climate Change Scenarios predict that Mexico will become warmer (between 2 and 4° C by
2050) with decreasing rainfall, that ocean temperatures will increase between 1 and 2° C
intensifying hurricanes, and that sea levels could rise by up to 2 meters leading to increased
flooding. Analytical work conducted during the preparation of the DPL demonstrated that
these climatic changes would negatively affect rural livelihoods and human welfare in the
poorest municipalities, and slow down the national rate of poverty reduction. Municipal level
analyses of natural disaster risk show that municipalities with the highest risk to housing and
public infrastructure also tended to be poor and rural, with large indigenous populations, poor
quality housing, and limited access to disaster management instruments. In terms of
vulnerability of rural livelihoods, a World Bank study on the social dimensions of climate
change in Mexico, estimated that by 2045, vulnerability would increase in municipalities
characterized by indigenous people and smallholders1. According to the study, moderate
poverty is expected to decline over the coming decades. However, once climate change is
taken into account, it is estimated that the pace of poverty reduction decreases by 2.4%,
leaving an extra 2.9mn people in poverty2.
2. The social dimensions of climate change are even more complex in rapidly expanding
and poorly planned urban areas, as well as forest communities. Rapid urbanization adds
to the cumulative risks of disasters, with the percentage of people living in urban areas
expecting to increase from 70% to 80% by 2025.3 Poor territorial and urban planning
increases the vulnerability of urban populations, especially poor inhabitants, who may be
more likely to build low quality structures in vulnerable locations such as slopes and
floodplains on the urban periphery. In terms of Forest dependent communities, Mexico ranks
12th worldwide in Forest cover, and there is a growing appreciation, not only of the role of
Forests in carbon sequestration, but also in aiding adaptation by providing a protective layer
that reduces soil erosion and protects watersheds. This important adaptation resource depends
on the active management by the 8,500 indigenous communities and ejidos that own 70% of
the forest. However, 55% of the 13mn inhabitants of forest communities live in extreme
poverty, threatening their role as stewards of this critical adaptation and mitigation resource.
3. The need to address the challenges of global climate change has been a unifying,
consistent, and increasingly high-profile theme of Mexican social and economic policy in
recent years. The 2007–2012 National Development Plan (PND) incorporated environmental
sustainability as one of its four pillars, reflecting the close connection between environmental
and livelihood sustainability of the poor in Mexico. Building on the PND, the National
1 Serrano-Berthet R, de la Fuente A, Lenihan M, Arnold M. 2013. Social Dimensions of Climate Change in
Mexico. Washington DC, World Bank.
2 The rate of moderate poverty (pobreza patrimonial) is expected to decline from 49.4% in 2005 to 15.25%
in 2030, based on the study’s own sample of selected municipalities.
3 Serrano-Berthet R, de la Fuente A, Lenihan M, Arnold M. 2013. Ibid.
2
Climate Change Strategy (ENACC) was approved in May 2007 by the Inter-secretarial
Commission on Climate Change (CICC). ENACC placed climate change adaptation and
mitigation at the core of Mexico’s national development policy, establishing the long-term
agenda and setting medium- to long-term adaptation and mitigation goals.
4. The 2009-2012 Special Program for climate Change (PECC), published in August 2009,
established the GoM’s plan of action for addressing the challenges of climate change. It
established 142 adaptation goals to be monitored through 2012. By establishing sector-
specific reduction targets and adaptation measures, the PECC has mainstreamed climate
change in the country’s economic and social development. In 2012, Mexico submitted the
Fifth Communication to the UNFCCC, making it the Non-Annex I country with the highest
number of national communications. Recognizing Mexico’s leadership in terms of both its
domestic policies and programs, and its international commitments, Mexico was ranked 11th
among all countries in the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) for 2010. Following
PECC’s launch, the GoM has committed to supporting states and municipalities in designing
their climate change action programs.
5. While providing a robust framework for long term policy engagement, the 2009-2012
PECC faced important challenges to reducing the impact of climate change on the poor: (i) An emphasis on mitigation over adaptation (ii) a lack of clear policy guidance on how to
deal with the unequal impact of climate change, and (iii) an overemphasis on the role of
sectoral ministries, as opposed to inter-sectoral coordination. In the year leading up to the
DPL, significant efforts were made to address these challenges including the approval of a
mid-term adaptation policy framework that recognized the differential social impacts of
climate change.
6. The Strengthening Social Resilience to Climate Change DPL builds on the long standing
engagement between the Government of Mexico and the World Bank which has
expanded in recent years to include: (a) Knowledge services such as the analysis of the
social dimensions of climate change and the climate change public expenditure review
produced in 2012; (b) Diverse financial services, such as a series of Development Policy
Loans, Specific Investment Loans, Global Environmental Facility (GEF) and other grants;
and (c) Convening and coordination services, that included high level facilitation activities
during Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP) 16, and South-South Collaboration
on Forestry leading up to COP 17 (see Annex 6 for the detailed Stages of Climate Change
Engagement in Mexico by type of services provided).
7. The macroeconomic policy framework was adequate for a Development Policy Loan. Fiscal and monetary policies had been well-managed in years preceding the 2008 global
financial crisis, resulting in a steady decline in public sector deficits and low, stable inflation
rates. The GoM had carefully managed both its external and domestic borrowing to reduce
the possibility of crowding out the private sector and to maintain Mexico’s external stability.
As a result, Mexico was well positioned to move into economic recovery and to manage its
debt burden.
1.2 Original Program Development Objectives (PDO) and Key Indicators (as approved)
8. The objective of this operation is to strengthen social resilience to climate change through
policies that will directly and indirectly benefit the poor by improving (i) adaptation oriented
to the state level (ii) disaster risk reduction and territorial development actions oriented to the
municipal level (iii) sustainable forestry management at the community level. Table 1
summarizes the prior actions and key indicators agreed for each policy area.
3
Table 1: Policy Areas, Prior Actions, and Key Outcome Indicators
Policy Area Prior Actions Key Outcome Indicators by Completion
Strengthening
social resilience
to climate
change through
long-term
adaptation
planning
The CICC’s Adaptation Working Group has: (i)
approved a Mid-Term Adaptation Policies
Framework (Marco de Políticas de Adaptación
de Mediano Plazo), which requires the
development of measures for reduction of
differential vulnerability and strengthening of
local adaptive planning; and (ii) created a
Technical Advisory Committee to facilitate
participation of experts and key stakeholders in
the formulation of a future national adaptation
strategy of Mexico.
The States of Yucatán, Campeche, and Quintana
Roo have signed a “General Coordination
Agreement on the Yucatán Peninsula’s Climate
Change” to develop a Regional Strategy for
Climate Change Adaptation in the Yucatán
Peninsula and a Climate Action Fund for the
Yucatán Peninsula, coordinated by the Climate
Change Regional Commission for the Yucatán
Peninsula.
Congress has approved a new budgetary
program “National Program for Climate Change
Adaptation and Prevention of Natural Disasters”
(Programa Nacional de Adaptación del Cambio
Climático y de Prevención de Desastres
Naturales), to finance climate change adaptation
initiatives in an amount of 300,000,000 Pesos,
and implemented by SEMARNAT.
Number of States that completed during
2012-2013 Climate Change Action
Programs that included specific measures
to promote social resilience (baseline: 0,
target: 3)
Inclusion of measures supported by
SEMARNAT and/or INE to address
unsustainable growth of tourism in coastal
areas and livelihood co-benefits of climate
policies for indigenous communities in the
Regional Strategy for Climate Change
Adaptation in the Yucatán Peninsula.
Number of State Climate Change Action
Programs that included civil society
participation in the design of social
resilience initiatives. (baseline 0, target 3)
Strengthen
disaster risk
reduction and
resilient
territorial
development
SEDESOL has strengthened the delivery of risk
reduction actions in Municipalities through (i)
the creation of a new program for risk
prevention in human settlements (“Prevención
de Riesgos en los Asentamientos Humanos”),
which offers financing for risk reduction actions
to Municipalities; and (ii) the issuance of new
operational rules of the temporary employment
program (Programa de Empleo Temporal, PET)
for the fiscal year 2011, to orient it towards the
financing of local disaster prevention projects.
SEDESOL’s guidelines for sustainable urban
development, aimed at fostering sustainable
urban territorial development and increased
social resilience, have been incorporated by
selected housing institutions of the Borrower,
such as CONAVI with its upfront subsidy
program “Esta es tu casa”, and INFONAVIT
Number of municipalities with high and
very high scores in PRAH's disaster risk
index which are implementing risk
reduction institutional strengthening and
investment activities supported by PRAH.
(Source: PRAH's Risk Index; Baseline
January 2012: 0; target by March 2013: 60
municipalities).
Number of urban development projects
evaluated within the DUIS Working Group
that have incorporated at least the following
criteria specified in SEDESOL's
Sustainable Urban Development
Guidelines: (i) location, (ii) connectivity
and accessibility, and (iii) risk prevention
4
with its mortgage origination criteria.
SAGARPA strengthened and improved the
targeting of its natural disaster risk management
and prevention program (CADENA) for low
income farmers, by lowering the eligibility
ceiling for disaster and catastrophe insurance
payouts.
(target: 5 between January 2012-March
2013).
Percentage of eligible surface that is
covered by climate risk insurance (baseline:
69%; target: 74%)
Foster the
involvement of
federal agencies,
civil society and
local actors in
community
forest
management and
climate change
strategies in line
with the National
REDD+ Vision
to build resilient
livelihoods in
rural and forest
areas
CONAFOR signed bilateral cooperation
agreements (Convenios de Colaboración), with
SAGARPA and SEMARNAT, fostering the
sharing of information among said institutions
on forestry programs, and aligning procedures
and incentive programs on agricultural, livestock
and forestry issues.
A national multi-stakeholder consultative
technical council and three state-level multi-
stakeholder consultative technical councils
(CTC–REDD) have been created.
The Board of JIRA approved REDD+ as a
strategic line for its multi-annual work program.
Number of two REDD+ collaboration
initiatives between CONAFOR and/or
SAGARPA and subnational Governments
in REDD+ Early Action areas that are
operational (baseline:0; target: 2)
Active social participation in REDD+
policy making at sub-national level trough
the operation of local CTC-REDD+
(participation of civil society in all
meetings as reflected in minutes, with a
minimum 3 meetings per year per CTC).
At least, thirty three percent of participating
communities in REDD+ Early Action
Areas receiving support from regional
landscape management agents (baseline
0%, target 33%)
1.3 Revised PDO (as approved by original approving authority) and Key Indicators, and
Reasons/Justification
Not Applicable
1.4 Original Policy Areas Recognized by the Program (as approved)
Policy Area 1 - Strengthening Social Resilience through Long-term Climate Change
Adaptation Planning oriented to the state level
9. The specific objective of this policy area was to recognize the development of national and
state government policy frameworks and funding mechanisms that foster inter-sectoral,
intergovernmental, and multi-stakeholder coordination and collaboration to promote socially
inclusive and pro-poor adaptation policies and programs. Climate change adaptation has a
predominantly local dimension, especially in Mexico. However, the 2009 – 2012 PECC
focused mainly on sectors and federal responsibilities, while state governments focus on
directly providing services for their constituent populations. Analytical work conducted
during the preparation of the program indicated that by 2045, vulnerability to climate change
will increase the most in central states like Zacatecas and Guanajuato, and that important
increases will also occur in the exposed Southern States of Yucatan and Chiapas, as well as
the drought effected Northern state of Chihuahua. This shows the importance of state specific
adaptation planning and the need to strengthen the mechanisms for coordination between
different levels of government, and different government agencies. Adequate financing to
support implementation of state-level adaptation measures has also been lacking. The three
prior actions agreed under this policy area aim to address these challenges by strengthening
long term adaptation planning at the state level and establishing financing mechanisms.
5
10. The first prior action focused on CICC’s adaptation working group approving a mid-term
adaptation framework that emphasized local adaptive planning, the need to create knowledge
resources necessary for evidence based sub-national planning, and the establishment of an
expert working group to facilitate the preparation of a National Adaptation Strategy. The
second prior action was the signing of an agreement between the states of the Yucatan
Peninsula in 2010, which creates a coordination framework for the development of a regional
climate change action plan for this particularly vulnerable zone. This breakthrough agreement
will be initially implemented through three projects (i) a Regional Climate Change
Adaptation Strategy, (ii) a Regional Program for Emissions Reduction from Deforestation
and Forest Degradation, and (iii) the establishment of a Fund for Climate Action for the
Yucatan Peninsula. The third prior action agreed under this policy area, was the establishment
of a Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disasters Program in 2011 as a new budgetary
program worth an initial US$22mn, earmarked for the states considered to be socially
disadvantaged, and vulnerable to climate risk.
Policy Area 2 – Strengthening Social Resilience through Disaster Risk Reduction and
Territorial Development Actions oriented to the municipal level
11. The specific policy objective within this policy area was to recognize government program
incentives that enhance disaster risk reduction, increase social resilience and promote
sustainable territorial development at the municipal level. The GoM recognizes that disaster
risk management in Mexico has in general been reactive. The analytical work underpinning
this DPL found that Municipalities with high levels of exposure are mostly poor and rural,
with large indigenous populations, more housing with dirt floors, and more female-headed
households. It was also found that only 21% of municipalities with high levels of hydro-met
exposure had a disaster response plan, 61% had a civil defense program, while little more
than half reported having hazard maps. Key challenges include lack of technical and financial
support for municipalities for disaster response, and the absence of guidelines and incentives
to prevent extensive urban expansion into hazardous zones. Another key challenge is the need
to provide greater protection for the rural poor against climatic variability. This DPL
recognizes aspects of the Government‘s program that aim to address these challenges by
moving toward a more proactive, flexible and accountable disaster risk management system
that is better linked to government programs, protects the poor from hazard event impacts
more effectively, and strengthens long-term resilience to climate change impacts. To this end,
three policy actions were agreed, the first of which established a new program to support
municipalities in human settlement risk prevention (PRAH) and the altering of operational
rules for the temporary employment program (PET) in 2011 to allow financing for disaster
prevention programs. SEDESOL’s new program for risk prevention4 (PRAH) extends
financing for risk reduction actions to all municipalities with high or very high risk of
disasters, and was launched in 2011. The program finances the development of municipal risk
atlases. Changes to the temporary employment program (PETi), involved changing the rules
of a program designed to provide employment to poor households during the agricultural off-
season, or following natural disasters, to allow beneficiaries to engage in public works to
reduce disaster risk. The second prior action under policy area 2, involved the incorporation
of SEDESOLs guidelines on sustainable urban development into the selection criteria for
CONAVI’s Esta es Tu Casa upfront subsidy program, as well as INFONAVIT’s mortgage
origination criteria. These guidelines call for a relatively modest densification, accompanied
by other changes to promote sustainability such as an increase in mixed use and green spaces
4 Under the 2013-2018 Administration, this Program now operates under the newly created Ministry of
Agricultural, Territorial and Urban Development (SEDATU).
6
per capita. The final prior action under policy area 3 was the agreement with SAGARPA to
better target its climate risk insurance program (CADENA) to low income farmers, by
lowering the eligibility criteria. As a result, the minimum hectares a farmer can have in order
to be eligible is 10, rather than the previously established cut of 20 hectares.
Policy Area 3 – Strengthening Social Resilience at the Community Level through
Sustainable Community Forest Management
12. The policy objective within this policy area was to strengthen sustainable community forest
management practices in order to enhance the resilience of poor rural and indigenous
communities that derive their livelihood from forests, while at the same time mitigating
carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. The analytical program for the
DPL indicated a strong connection between hydromet disaster exposure, and local forest
management, with 7 out of 10 municipalities with high hydromet exposure classed as being at
high risk of deforestation by INECC. Mexico’s policy framework for sustainable community
forestry management is recognized globally as good practice for reducing deforestation and
mitigating climate change, while at the same time contributing to adaptation and social
resilience by providing income and employment opportunities, and strengthening
communities’ resilience to natural and economic disasters that may be induced by climate
change. However, there are a number of ongoing challenges to optimizing the policy
environment for community level forest management, including (i) discrepancies between
forestry and other rural policies and programs, especially agriculture and livestock (ii) the
need to increase public participation in the innovative REDD+ agenda, and (iii) geographical
fragmentation of forest management efforts that operate only at the level of individual
communities. The three prior actions agreed under policy area 3, address each of these
challenges. The first prior action involved CONAFOR signing bilateral cooperation
agreements with SAGARPA and SEMARNAT in 2011, in order to align procedures and
incentive programs. The CONAFOR-SEMARNAT agreement defined a basis for
exchanging information and designing shared indicators for the forestry sector. The
CONAFOR-SAGARPA agreement commits both institutions to support REDD+ strategies,
share information, establish joint training and advisory services for potential beneficiaries of
CONAFOR and SAGARPA programs, as well as the promotion of regional activities for
water basin management and the joint design of economic integration projects. The second
prior action aims to increase civil society participation in policy making related to forests and
climate change, and the REDD+ agenda, by creating a national consultative stakeholder
council, as well as state-level multi-stakeholder consultative technical councils. The national
multi-stakeholder council was created in June 2011, and serves as an advisory body to the
REDD+ Working Group. It is comprised of representatives from indigenous communities,
civil society organizations, the private sector, and government agencies. State-level
consultative councils were established in August 2011 in Chiapas, Quintana Roo and
Campeche, and serve as a partnership between government, civil society, and academia. The
third prior action under this policy area promotes greater geographic integration and
collaboration among communities at the landscape level in the state of Jalisco. This action
involved the approval of the Junta Municipal del Rio Ayuquila, as an inter-municipal board
(comprising 10 municipalities) qualified to collaborate with CONAFOR to customize and
implement the national REDD+ strategy at the local level. This action recognizes that the
ecological boundaries of forests and watersheds cut across the administrative boundaries of
Mexico’s 2441 municipalities.
1.5 Revised Policy Areas
N/A
7
2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes
2.1 Program Performance
13. The strengthening social resilience to climate change DPL was disbursed in a single tranche
of US$300,751,879.70 in December 2012, subsequent to the loan becoming effective in
November 20125. All prior actions agreed had been met at the time of signing the loan
agreement (see section 1.4). The performance of the program in terms of delivering key
outcome indicators by time of completion is summarized below. The achievements of the
program in most cases surpassed the targets specified in the program (for more detailed
information – see Annex 9).
2.2 Major Factors Affecting Implementation
14. In addition to a favorable macroeconomic environment, there were several factors that
positively affected the operation’s implementation, as described below:
15. Strong government commitment to climate change adaptation and mitigation. Mexico is
one of the leaders among non-industrialized countries.6 The GoM has been actively pursuing
the development of a climate change national strategy over the past two decades, having been
making steady progress toward building the necessary institutional and legal scaffolding.
This DPL, together with engagement in the preparation of adaptation plans at the state and
municipal level, reflected the GoM’s growing interest for adaptation. As a result, the
operation’s main focus was on climate change adaptation actions and social resilience that
were already part of the core business of the participating institutions (i.e., SEMARNAT,
SEDESOL, SAGARPA). Although not necessarily perceived as having a CCA focus, these
business practices had been incorporated over the years in response to the requirement of
each organization to carry out their daily work in the face of climate uncertainty.
16. Long-standing collaboration between the GoM and the Bank on climate change and
disaster risk management. The GoM’s and the World Bank have been collaborating on
climate change since the mid-1990s, while work on disaster risk management has been
ongoing since 1998. At the time of preparation, there was a total of 36 initiatives, either
active or in the pipeline, financed by various sources, including IBRD loans, GEF grants,
carbon finance emission reductions purchase agreements (ERPAs), and other financial
instruments. Preceding IBRD operations in other sectors offered useful precedents for the
mainstreaming of climate change into sector policies. The emphasis had been mainly on
mitigation (Climate Change DPL and the Low Carbon DPL), until the DPL on the
Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Water Sector in 2013. The
Strengthening Social Resilience to Climate Change DPL continues the emphasis on
adaptation, and was the first World Bank lending operation whose central, explicit theme was
the reduction of the impacts of climate change and variability on the poor.
17. In terms of disaster risk management, the first activity of the Bank’s newly created Disaster
Management Facility was an analysis of disaster risk management capacity in Mexico,
5 The arrangement of disbursing the entire loan amount the day after effectiveness is relatively unique to
Mexico.
6 Mexico was one of the first non-Annex I countries to submit a national communication in 1997. Presently,
it stands as the only one that has issued five communications, followed only by Uruguay with four
communications.
8
prompting GoM to request the first World Bank loan on disaster risk management. The Bank
also worked with Mexico to become the first developing country to issue a catastrophe bond,
which provides coverage to FONDEN for very large hurricanes and earthquakes. In 2011, the
Bank carried out a study on the Urban Poor, Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change
in Mexico City.
18. Strong knowledge base: During the preparation and implementation of this DPL, the World
Bank and other partners (AFD, GTZ, UNDP) collaborated with the Government of Mexico
on a number of analytical and advisory activities as part of a comprehensive program of
knowledge services, with the explicit goal of reducing the social impact from climate change
effects.
19. Non-additionality acts as a disincentive for participating institutions. As it is the case
with all World Bank lending in Mexico, the financial resources attached to this DPL were a
transfer to the Treasury and not to the sector agencies, according to Mexican legislation;
hence, there were limited incentives for sector agencies to support these instruments. Despite
this challenge, the policy program agreed actually surpassed most of its targets, and the GoM
recognizes that the technical assistance provided by the World Bank to all counterparts was a
fundamental added value to the Program.
20. Difficulty in Coordinating Subnational Actors: One of the main factors affecting the
implementation of a number of prior actions was the difficulties encountered in coordinating
or incentivizing coordination among multiple sub-national actors. This challenge underpinned
the delay in the preparation of the Yucatan Peninsula Adaptation Strategy which required
cooperation among three different state governments, the mixed content of the State Climate
Change Action Programs which required cooperation between different state and federal
entities, as well as the mixed quality of the Risk Atlases produced under PRAH, which
required coordination between municipal governments and federal entities. Thus, while the
multi-level and cross-sectoral (environment, agriculture, urban development, forestry)
approach adopted by the program was a significant strength, it also posed an important
challenge.
21. Government Transition: Another factor affecting implementation was the transition to a
new government in 2012, which resulted in changing personnel among the implementing
agencies (especially CONAFOR), the creation of new implementing agencies such as
SEDATU (the under-secretariat of Urban Development and Territorial Planning that was part
of SEDESOL in the former administration, became part of SEDATU), and in some instances
a different set of priorities (e.g. a reduction in financing for PRAH).
2.3 Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Design, Implementation and Utilization:
22. Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Design: Overall, the DPL program benefited from a
strong M&E system embedded in the operation’s Policy Matrix, with a robust set of outcome
indicators. In line with the Bank’s approach to closely align its operations with the PND, the
outcome indicators answered to objectives included in the 2007-2012 PND and other
planning instruments that were articulated with the PND, including national communications
to the UNFCCC, and the 2009-2012 PECC. Specifically, this Program contributed to
achieving the objective of promoting adaptation measures to climate change effects. This
objective was supported by specific strategies, including: promoting the inclusion of climate
change adaptation aspects in planning instruments and operation (strategy 11.1); assessing the
impacts, vulnerability and climate change adaptation in different socio-economic sectors
(strategy 11.3); and promoting the dissemination of information about climate change
impacts, vulnerability and adaptation measures (strategy 11.4), to which this DPL together
with the activities supported under the TA program contributed.
9
23. Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Implementation: The Bank monitored progress under
the DPL through regular supervison. SEMARNAT/INECC, SEDESOL/SEDATU,
SAGARPA and CONAFOR conducted effective overall M&E of the actions included in the
Policy Matrix as well as the activities being supported under the TA program, collecting data
needed from the various units within these institutions, as well as the other participating
agencies. The quality of the data collected was verified, as it had to be formally delivered to
SHCP and NAFIN, before being shared with the task team.
24. Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Utilization: INECC, SAGARPA, and SEDATU are
using this M&E system to actively monitor the programs they are supporting (preparation of
State Climate Change Action Programs, PRAH, and CADENA). This system also highlights
some of the challenges faced by CONAFOR in collecting data from decentralized agencies
and associations at the subnational levels of governments. Although it is still too early to
assess, the data evaluated is likely to be used to inform decision-making, specifically with
respect to further strengthening adaptation measures in planning instruments, with a greater
emphasis on the social component by targeting the most vulnerable groups (particularly in the
State Climate Change Action Programs). The data collected can also be used by certain
agencies that operate federal programs, in order to receive more resources (for example, to
increase the operational budget of PRAH for next fiscal year, in response to the high demand
from municipalities that want to elaborate Risk Atlases).
2.4 Expected Next Phase/Follow-up Operation (if any):
25. There is an ongoing program of financial and knowledge services related to climate change
adaptation in general and State Climate Change Action Programs in particular.7 These include
a range of programmatic advisory services on environmental policy, agricultural risk, urban
development, and disaster risk management, as well as a GEF Grant financing a Coastal Zone
Watershed Conservation Project. Also, the National Institute for Ecology and Climate
Change (INECC) has expressed a strong interest in continuing collaboration on the topic of
Municipal Climate Change Action Plans (PACMUN) with a stronger focus on adaptation
measures and analysis of social impacts, Public Participation in Climate Change Adaptation
Planning, Indigenous Knowledge for Climate Change Adaptation, as well as Gender and
Climate Change Adaptation. The use and application of the Climate Change Knowledge
Portal (CCKP) to the work of INECC is also being discussed.8
26. There is an opportunity in continue collaboration on CADENA as there is a current proposal
of restructuring the program for 2014-2018 by introducing an innovative approach: social
component (for low-income producers affected by natural disasters without access to
insurance); support for producers; immediate response for emergencies (which will have
100% federal subsidy). Further, there is an area of opportunity in the Disaster Risk
Management Area (collaborating on the development of Municipal Risk Atlases, assessing
their quality and their usability and impact in municipal planning and disaster risk reduction).
7 The Government of Mexico requested the Bank to engage with state governments in developing their
PEACC. The Bank responded to this request by engaging with the governments of Campeche, Michoacan,
Oaxaca and Zacatecas to prioritize interventions for climate change adaptation. See: MX MOU Subnational
CC Plans – P105849.
8 The CCKP is a central hub of information, data and reports about climate change around the world, that
allows users to query, map, compare, chart and summarize key climate and climate-related information:
http://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org
10
27. There is also the possibility to engage in targeted technical collaboration to assess the longer
term impacts of the policy measures, implemented under the program, on promoting shared
prosperity. This could include an assessment of the impact of CADENA in protecting the
incomes of vulnerable farmers from climate variability, the success of social resilience
measures supported by State Climate Change Action Programs in protecting livelihoods and
human settlements in marginalized communities, and the role of REDD+ in supporting
income generation in impoverished forest dependent communities.
3. Assessment of Outcomes
3.1 Relevance of Objectives, Design and Implementation
28. The objectives of the DPL continue to be highly relevant, particularly in view of:
- Strategic importance of climate change in Mexico: The GoM has continued to be at
the forefront of climate change adaptation issues and has shown a strong commitment to
climate change adaptation planning at the federal and subnational levels. This
commitment is underscored by the substantial progress being made toward the
development of a national climate change strategy, including building the underlying
legal and institutional frameworks. Some of the specific outcomes include: the
submission of the fifth national framework in September 2012, the General Climate
Change Law in June 2012, and the Sector level CCA in November 2012.
- The GoM submitted the Fifth National Communication to the UNFCCC in Continuous
institutional support from incoming administration: In a multi-party agreement
subscribed in December 2012, incoming authorities had already made explicit their
commitment to continue to make climate change one of the country’s priorities.
- Alignment with the CPS 2008-2013: Overall, the outcomes of this DPL together with
the TA activities have contributed to further strengthening the financial and knowledge-
based relationship between the GoM and the World Bang Group. Specifically, this DPL
has contributed to the thematic area IV: “Developing Infrastructure and Assuring Energy
Security and Environmental Sustainability” as it has strengthened the knowledge and
capacity of the federal and local governments regarding climate change adaptation
planning and disaster risk reduction.
- Selection of PDO: The objective of this operation focused on policies that would directly
and indirectly benefit the poor by improving adaptation planning, disaster risk reduction
and territorial development, and sustainable forestry management. This was based on
preliminary analysis, which showed that the most vulnerable to climate change continue
to be primarily rural, indigenous and natural resource dependent.
29. The design of the DPL was relevant considering the alignment with the GoM’s planning
instruments, such as the 2007-2012 PND, the National Communications to the UNFCCC, and
the 2009-2012 PECC. The DPL was also considered innovative for being the World Bank’s
first lending operation whose central, explicit theme was adaptation through strengthening
social resilience to the impacts of climate change and variability. Understanding that climate
change and social resilience are a cross-sectorial and multi-stakeholder issue, this Program
integrated the following sectors: environment, agriculture, forestry, urban, territorial and
social development.
30. The implementation of the DPL is also relevant as it puts forward adaption issues in the
climate change agenda, and it strengthens the importance of targeting the most poor and
vulnerable groups. The outcomes continue to be relevant to inform future planning
instruments such as the new PECC and the National Climate Change Strategy, and at the sub-
11
national level, the State Climate Change Action Programs and the Municipal Climate Change
Plans. The outcomes also complement the new 2013-2018 PND, which establishes a strategy
for strengthening national climate change policy and environmental protection to transition
into a competitive, sustainable, resilient and low-carbon economy. This operation also helped
to strengthen inter-sectoral coordination, as demonstrated with the creation of the National
Climate Change System and the establishment of the new CICC.
3.2 Achievement of Program Development Objectives
31. The operation has largely achieved its three program development objectives. For seven of
the nine original outcome indicators, the achievements exceed original expectations. The
main achievements can be summarized as follows:
Policy Area 1 - Strengthening Social Resilience through Long-term Climate Change
Adaptation Planning oriented to the state level
Ranking: Satisfactory
32. This DPL contributed significantly to GoM’s efforts to further strengthening long term
adaptation at the state level. Evidence of the achievement of this objective can be seen from
the fact that over twice the number of state climate change action programs were prepared (8
in total), compared to original target of 3. At the time of preparation of the DPL, only two
states, Veracruz and Nuevo Leon, and the Federal District had completed their State Climate
Change Action Programs (PEACC). Since then, PEACCs have been prepared in Baja
California, Baja California Sur, Zacatecas, Chiapas, Guanajuato, Hidalgo, Puebla and
Tabasco. The preparation of each of these PEACCs was characterized by the participation of
civil society, mostly through workshops, as well as a public consultation of the final draft
prior to publication.
33. Each of the eight states that completed their PEACC since the preparation of the DPL also
included specific measures to promote social resilience and adaptation. Baja California’s
PEACC includes measures for the preparation of a State Risk Atlas at the human settlement
level, in collaboration with municipalities; as well as the implementation of urban
development programs. The state of Guanajuato’s program targets socially excluded groups,
and prioritizes the relocation of social groups settled in risk areas, particularly those at risk of
floods. The state of Hidalgo’s PEACC includes a vulnerability index at the municipal level,
and aims to minimize climate change risk of human settlements, and to plan for appropriate
geographical distribution of new settlements according to vulnerability. Other planned actions
include incorporating climate change prevention criteria in territorial planning and
developing an action plan to target groups that are more vulnerable to extreme weather
events. The state of Puebla’s PEACC has a clear focus on reducing the exposure of social
groups that are vulnerable to climate change and variability, while increasing resilience and
adaptive capacity of the population and natural systems. Similarly, Tabasco’s PEACC is
focused on strengthening adaptive capacity of economically and geographically vulnerable
groups.
34. However, it is the State of Chiapas Program which stands out as a model for incorporating
social resilience measures. This PEACC establishes an Inter-secretariat Climate Change
Commission, designed to create mechanisms of dialogue and participation among state
agencies and social organizations, to ensure the opinion and needs of civil society are taken
into account. There are also actions planned to strengthen the capacity of rural and indigenous
communities, through mechanisms that respect their culture and organization, while building
on their traditional knowledge for sustainable use of natural resources. Adaptation guidelines
specified in the program include: generation of detailed scientific information to deepen
12
knowledge about climate change adaptation and disaster risk management; disaster
prevention and relief in exposed areas through incorporating risk management at the
community, municipal and regional level, through effective social and community
participation; improvement of early warning systems, and state and regional emergency
plans. Another specific action line provides guidance for vulnerability reduction and disaster
risk management in human settlements, and includes: climate sensitive urban planning
criteria; environmental criteria, engaging multiple social actors and economic sectors in urban
planning; identifying the most vulnerable people in exposed areas and seeking their consent
for relocation. The development of Chiapas PEACC has contributed to capacity building and
synergies in the state of Chiapas, which have been strengthened through training, technical
and educational workshops about the REDD+ mechanism for state government officials, as
well as civil society organizations that form the current Consultative Technical Advisory
Committee of REDD+ Chiapas.
35. Another exemplary PEACC was produced by Baja California Sur. This Program has an entire
chapter dedicated to social vulnerability, and includes an analysis of vulnerability of human
settlements related to their exposure to droughts, sea level rise, and proximity to coastal areas
and floods caused by hurricanes. It also includes an analysis of the vulnerability of traditional
farmer and fisher communities; vulnerability as perceived by inhabitants of protected natural
areas; and the impacts of climate change on health. It also focuses on the unique vulnerability
of women to climate change impacts. It includes policy recommendations with respect to
vulnerability and poverty; identifying risk areas; environmental education; and adaptation
measures.
36. Among the State Climate Change Action Programs, there were also a number of areas for
improvement. For instance, while the Chiapas Program and Baja California Sur were
exemplary, the attention paid to social resilience and adaption in the Zacatecas plan was
limited to some minor proposals for legislative reform. Also, aside from Chiapas, most of the
other PEACCs did not define specific targets, or specify monitoring and evaluation
arrangements for the social resilience measures proposed. The difference in the quality of
PEACCs that have been produced can be explained to some extent on the complexity and
diversity of each state, and the nature of the consultants/academic institutions/NGOs that
produced them. INECC only provides general guidelines of the basic contents of these
programs, however, they have learned from this operation that they should strengthen their
supervision to make sure that adaptation measures and indicators are included.
37. While not completed, progress has been made on the preparation of the Yucatan Peninsula
Adaptation Strategy. A multi-stakeholder workshop that included representatives from each
of the three states was conducted in May 2013, where it was agreed that the Strategy would
include measures targeting sustainable tourism. A roadmap for strategy preparation is to be
presented at a stakeholder meeting in October 2013, and has already been drafted by UNDP.
This event will also announce the creation of a joint regional climate change adaptation fund.
The preparation of this strategy and launching of the fund builds on an already successful
collaborative effort in the preparation of a REDD+ Strategy for the Yucatan Peninsula
Region. Significant progress was also made in developing information and decision making
instruments for subnational adaptation to climate change. Since the development of the
Strategy involves the coordination among three different sub-national actors, it has been
challenging to complete it within the timeframe originally established, but evidence points
out to the completion of a strong and comprehensive strategy in the medium term.
Policy Area 2 – Strengthening Social Resilience through Disaster Risk Reduction and
Territorial Development Actions at the Municipal Level
13
Ranking: Satisfactory
38. This DPL also made a significant contribution to strengthening disaster risk reduction and
territorial development actions at the municipal level. One example is the prior action to
establish the risk prevention program in human settlements (PRAH). This program was
originally established under SEDESOL, but has subsequently been transferred to the new
Ministry of Agricultural, Territorial and Urban Development (SEDATU). Since the
establishment of the program, 177 risk atlases have been prepared in total, 105 of which were
prepared for Municipalities facing high or very high levels of exposure, thus surpassing the
original target of 60. These Atlases can be used to inform community decisions on land use
and raise local awareness regarding potential natural hazards. These Atlases go a long way to
filling the gaps in disaster management instruments which typify municipalities outside the
national urban system. The Atlases will further help the PETi program overcome some of the
challenges it faced in supporting municipal disaster reduction projects. Because PETi projects
are based on municipal demand, many municipalities prioritize socio-economic infrastructure
over disaster prevention or climate resilience projects, due to a lack of awareness of climate
related risks. While in some cases the quality of municipal Risk Atlases has been mixed,
demand for these instruments continues to be high from municipalities. There are current
efforts to improving the quality of such atlases, such as the establishment of a certification
procedure for companies that elaborate them.
39. The DPL has also contributed to the successful incorporation of SEDESOL’s sustainability
guidelines into large housing developments. Evidence of how these guidelines have been put
into practice can be seen for the projects approved by the Integrated Sustainable Urban
Development Working Group (DUIS) who are responsible for evaluating large housing
development projects applying for federal incentives for mortgages (from INFONAVIT,
FOVISSSTE, SHF, CONAVI) and infrastructure (from FONADIN, BANOBRAS, and
SEDESOL). The latest data indicate that at least 10 development projects have been
approved by DUIS using SEDESOL’s sustainability criteria (which is now a mandatory
scoring methodology). These projects are located in Baja California Norte, Guanajuato,
Sonora, Tabasco, Jalisco, Temixco, Quintana Roo, Yucatan and Puebla. All but, one are
greenfield developments, and taken together should produce 388,000 new housing units
benefiting over 1.5mn people within the next 15 to 20 years. There are an additional nine
projects currently in the process of evaluation that are expected to produce an additional
137,000 housing units, benefiting over half a million people.
40. The expansion of CADENA following the lowering of the hectare eligibility criteria can be
seen from the increase in eligible surface area enrolled. The percentage of eligible surface
enrolled in the program increased from 69% during the preparation of the DPL, to 75.4% in
2013. Also, the program resulted in an increase in the percentage of smallholders benefiting
from the program, with 70% of new beneficiaries owning less than 20ha’s. This is evidence
of the success of the prior action agreed during the preparation of the DPL, where the
eligibility criterion for CADENA was changed to ensure smaller producers could benefit. In
the near future SAGARPA expects to increase the insurance coverage prioritizing areas with
“productive reconversion” to basic crops (rice, beans, maize, wheat and amaranth) in the 400
priority municipalities of the “Cruzada contra el hambre”9.
Policy Area 3 – Strengthening Social Resilience at the Community Level through
Sustainable Community Forest Management
9 Strategy of Social Inclusion and Welfare of the Federal Government 2013-2018 which prioritizes actions
to support the 400 municipalities with communities in extreme poverty.
14
Ranking: Satisfactory
41. The three prior actions agreed as part of this DPL made a significant contribution to further
strengthening the resilience of sustainable community forest management in Mexico by
addressing the three core challenges facing this system: (i) discrepancies between forestry and
other rural policies and programs especially agriculture and livestock, (ii) the need to increase
public participation in the innovative REDD+ agenda, and (iii) geographical fragmentation of
forest management efforts that operate only at the level of individual communities. Actions
agreed under this policy area are having significant impact on the capacities of communities
and ejidos to take part in decision-making regarding the use of natural resources.
42. Significant progress has been made in overcoming discrepancies between forestry and other
rural policies by establishing REDD+ Collaborative Initiatives between CONAFOR and/or
SAGARPA and Sub-national Governments. It was originally expected that only two such
operational initiatives would be established, but in fact this target was exceeded. Currently,
seven new operational agreements are in place, and serving to strengthen the synergies among
rural policies and incentive programs at the landscape level. The initiatives include new
agreements at the state level (Jalisco, Quintana Roo), at an inter-municipal level with
municipal associations in Jalisco (JIRA, JIRCO, JISOC), and also with other Federal agencies
(CONABIO). These municipal associations constitute an inter-institutional platform to bring
together municipal governments with representatives of federal and state-level agencies. This is
an innovative governance mechanism for environmental management that can react to complex
agendas that transcend administrations in the context of political change. Municipal
associations make possible the comprehensiveness and continuity of environmental
management beyond the three years of the municipal administration, notwithstanding changes
in the administration and political parties.
43. Progress has also been made in increasing participation in the implementation of REDD+ at
both the national and local level, through the establishment of national and local consultative
technical councils that included representation from multiple stakeholders. The CTCREDD+ is
a platform of participation and consultation of diverse non-governmental actors (forests
owners, producer organizations, civil society organizations, academic and research institutions)
to generate inputs that lead to better decision-making in public policy. It constitutes a space of
dialogue between society and government. At the sub-national level, the CTC met four times in
the Quintana Roo early action area, and two in the Campeche early action area, during the
same time frame. The number of meetings was slightly less than anticipated in Campeche,
while in Quintana Roo one additional meeting was held. All of these meetings included civil
society representatives, improving public participation in policy-making related to forests and
climate change policies and programs. The CTC REDD+ in Quintana Roo has made progress
on validating and approving its rules of procedure by consensus, and discussing the State’s
REDD+ strategy. The CTC in Campeche continues to review its rules of procedure, which
mandate 70% Civil Society membership. During their meetings they have held workshops to
define selection criteria and types of projects by municipality. At the same time, civil society
groups continue to be active in the national level CTC, which held four meetings during the life
of the program.
44. Finally, progress has been made in overcoming the risk of geographic fragmentation of forest
management under REDD+, with 169 communities participating in REDD+ Early Action
Areas, receiving support from regional landscape management agents (15.7% of all
participating communities). Although, this is below the original target of 33% of participating
communities, due mainly to the large number of communities inside the Early Action Area in
the Yucatan Peninsula, it is still considered an important achievement, given the innovative
approach adopted. The Local Development Agents include Agentes Técnicos Locales (ATLs)
15
and Agentes de Desarrollo Local (ADLs). ATLs are local public agencies with a mandate for
integrated rural development (for example, JIRA) and provide technical support for REDD+
initiatives; ADLs are civil society organizations that support and help implement one or several
CONAFOR programs in specific regions. Collaboration between ATLs and ADLs allows for a
broader spatial integration at the regional level, rather than responding to individual
community demands. This is critical for successful implementation of REDD+ initiatives. With
the support of local development agents local REDD+ initiatives had greater geographic
integration and collaboration among communities and municipalities at landscape level. One
of the challenges faced was the government transition in 2012, which affected implementation
capacities at the sub-national level.
3.3 Justification of Overall Outcome Rating
Rating: Satisfactory
45. The policies agreed under this DPL continue to be highly relevant for the GoM. The GoM has
continued to demonstrate strong commitment to a broad policy program on climate change,
social resilience, disaster risk management, and sustainable urban and territorial development.
Overall, there have been important advances highlighting the growing centrality of climate
change adaptation issues in Mexico at all government levels. These advances include a new
Climate Change Law, a new National Climate Change Strategy, and the Fifth National
Communication to the UNFCCC, which makes Mexico the Non-Annex I country with the
highest number of national communications. Although the 2013-2018 PND does not have a
specific pillar on Climate Change, it does include a number of specific objectives (e.g. promote
inclusive green growth & strengthen national climate change policy) and action lines (develop
institutions and policy instruments of the national system of climate change & develop
information systems to design environmental policies of climate change mitigation and
adaptation) which point to an ongoing commitment to this issue.
46. The operation has also been highly effective, with the prior actions agreed resulting in
significant outcomes when implemented. Outcomes achieved included strengthened
coordination and planning for adaptation at the state level under policy area 1. For policy area
2, 105 municipalities are better prepared for disaster risks, 10 sustainable housing development
projects that will benefit over 1.5 million people have been approved, and farmer enrollment in
climate risk insurance has increased by over 6%. Policy area 3 has contributed to improved
forest management under REDD+, by strengthening inter-agency coordination, increasing civil
society participation in policy implementation at the sub-national level, and promoting an
integrated landscape approach to forest management, especially in Jalisco. These outcomes
were achieved with only minor shortcomings, with the Yucatan Adaptation Strategy still in
process, and one less CTC meeting than anticipated being held in the Campeche Early Action
Area, and 47% of the target for REDD+ beneficiary communities receiving support from
ADLs. Otherwise, all other outcomes significantly surpassed original expectations.
47. The policies agreed under this program will contribute significantly to the economic
efficiency of GoM’s Climate Adaptation efforts by (i) promoting inter-agency coordination at
multiple levels of governance, (ii) supporting evidence based policy design and sub-national
adaptation planning, (iii) encouraging increased accountability in the policy design and sub-
national planning process through requiring direct involvement of civil society.
3.4 Overarching Themes, Other Outcomes and Impacts
(a) Poverty Impacts, Gender Aspects, and Social Development
48. All of the policy actions agreed as the part of the DPL are directly targeted to the poorest and
most vulnerable states, municipalities and communities in Mexico, as well as improving the
16
sub-national and community capacity for adaptation. Under policy area 1, almost all of the
State Climate Change Action Programs included measures to target adaption efforts to the
poorest communities and social groups in the territories, which also tended to be the most
vulnerable to disaster risk. The Chiapas program is particularly strong in its commitment to
engage with indigenous communities, and to draw on indigenous knowledge for adaptation.
Also, both Chiapas and Baja California Sur, showed a strong commitment to targeting
adaptation measures to women, who were identified as being particularly vulnerable to
climate change. For Policy Area 2, PRAH was especially effective in targeting institutional
support for Risk Atlas preparation to the most marginal municipalities in the Country. Among
the 105 municipalities supported, close to 50% were classed as being characterized by
medium, high, or very high levels of marginality. Also, the prior action which changed the
eligibility requirements of SAGARPA’s CADENA, meant that 70% of beneficiaries enrolled
in the program during 2012 were farmers with holdings of less than 20has. This program
provides important protection to the most vulnerable farmers to climate related risks. Finally,
the policies agreed under policy area 3, serve in the long term to strengthen the livelihoods of
over 4,000 forest dependent, mostly indigenous communities. Thus, overall it is expected
that the program has supported measures that target the poorest areas and social groups in the
country, and thus are likely in the long run to contribute to one of the twin goals of the World
Bank – namely reduction of extreme poverty, assuming these measures continue to be funded
and properly executed.
(b) Institutional Change/Strengthening
49. This operation has had a significant impact in terms of strengthening the capacity of Federal
and Sub-national institutions to implement climate change adaptation programs. These
changes resulted from both the policy actions agreed under the DPL program as well as the
accompanying program of technical support provided by the World Bank.
50. At the federal level, important institutional changes included the creation of a Mid-Term
Adaptation Policy Framework by the CICCs Adaptation Working Group, a Technical
Advisory Committee to the CICC to facilitate participation of experts and key stakeholders,
and the creation of a new budgetary program to finance adaptation initiatives. Federal
agencies that benefited from the technical support program provided during preparation and
implementation included SEDESOL who received support for greening their local
development program, SAGARPA who received advisory support on evaluating the impact
of their climate risk insurance programs, and INECC who received technical support in the
installation of a localized version of the Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
51. At the state level, coordination arrangements for adaptation and mitigation were put in place
among the states of the Yucatan Peninsula, and significant progress was made in the
preparation of evidence based State Climate Change Action Plans. The TAP also provided
targeted support to adaptation planning efforts of state governments, especially in Michoacán
and Quintana Roo.
52. At the municipal and community level, significant improvements were made to advance
planning and coordination capacity necessary for disaster risk reduction, and sustainable
forest management. The PRAH agreed as a prior action, directly strengthened the capacity of
municipal governments to respond and plan for natural disasters through supporting the
preparation of 177 risk atlases. The TAP directly supported the preparation of sustainability
and tourism resilience strategies for the vulnerable municipality of Othon P. Blanco, in
Quintana Roo. Furthermore, the measures agreed under policy area 3, directly targeted the
need to strengthen national and sub-national institutions responsible for REDD+ by
17
promoting inter-agency coordination, civil society engagement, and inter-municipal
landscape planning.
(c) Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts (positive or negative, if any)
53. This DPL has contributed to changing the policy discourse in Mexico, by putting forward
adaptation planning and measures in the climate change agenda. Before this operation, policy
and programs were primarily focused on mitigation, and did not specifically address the poor
and vulnerable groups. The emphasis placed on strengthening social resilience as a
mechanism for adaptation can be seen in related outcomes achieved during 2012, including
the new Climate Change Law, the new National Climate Change Strategy, and the Fifth
National Communication to the UNFCCC. Of particular note is the priority given to
adaptation in the Climate Change law passed in 2012. One of the main purposes of the law is
reducing the vulnerability of the country’s population and ecosystems to the adverse effects
of climate change, as well as creating and strengthening national capacities to respond to such
phenomenon. It also aims to establish the foundations for public participation. The Law
includes a chapter on adaptation which commits the GoM to the objectives of (i) reducing
societal vulnerability, (ii) strengthening resilience of human and natural systems, (iii)
minimizing likely risks and damage, (iv) identifying vulnerability of ecological, physical and
social systems, (v) establishing rapid response mechanisms, and (vi) promoting food
insecurity. The Law also mandates that Federal and state authorities include adaptation
actions in the design of public policies, as well as the three instruments for climate change
policy implementation, namely - the National Strategy, the Special Climate Change Program,
as well as the State Climate Change Action Programs. Social participation and consultation
should be promoted in the preparation of all planning instruments, in order to take into
account public opinion (articles 60, 68). The law explicitly mentions the importance of
preparing risk atlases, and that the information generated by these atlases is used for the
preparation of urban development plans, and for planning risk reduction measures. It also
mandates the creation of a Climate Change Advisory Council, formed by members of the
social, private and academic sectors, with relevant expertise in climate change. Finally, the
Law establishes a Climate Change Fund with the purpose of attracting and channeling public,
private, and international donor resources in order to support the implementation of actions to
fight climate change. Adaptation actions shall have priority in the use of the Fund’s resources
(article 80).
54. The National Climate Change Strategy also included a specific axis on reducing vulnerability
and increasing resilience of the social sector. Action lines supported under this axis relate to
increase the resilience of human settlements, strengthening early warning and communication
systems, disaster risk prevention, land use planning, potable water provision, gender, and
social participation. Another important action line under the productive axis emphasized the
preservation of indigenous adaptation knowledge, through rescuing and maintaining Mexican
millennial agricultural traditions as an option for the reinforcement and protection of native
agro-diversity for the adaptation of agricultural produce to climate change. These
recommendations were based on a comprehensive diagnosis of vulnerability in the face of
climate change, which in turn is based on a conceptual framework developed by the IPCC.
55. Mexico’s Fifth National Communication to the UNFCCC also included an analysis of social
vulnerability, acknowledging that Mexico’s poorest locations and social groups show high-
vulnerability to climate change. It was therefore recommended that vulnerability assessments
for the preparation of adaptation measures consider unique geographical, demographic, and
socio-economic conditions, as well as access to natural resources and services, public-health
conditions (such as child malnutrition), gender considerations, and the specific cultural
features of each area.
18
56. Another related initiative that had an important impact during 2012 was the preparation of 20
Municipal Climate Change Action Plans (PACMUN). This initiative is implemented by the
international association of municipalities Local Governments for Sustainable Development
(ICLEI), financed by the British Embassy’s prosperity fund, and hosted by the INECC. In
total there are 200 municipalities registered with this initiative, which will continue for
another 2 years. It is designed to complement the process of PEACCs preparation, as well as
the Risk Atlases produced by PRAH. Similar to PRAH, PACMUN targets municipalities
with limited capacity to finance their own adaptation plans.
3.5 Summary of Findings of Beneficiary Survey and/or Stakeholder Workshops
N/A
4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome
Rating: Low to negligible
57. Overall risk to the development outcome is considered low to negligible due to the
ongoing commitment of the GoM to being a global leader in Climate Change Adaptation
and Mitigation Policy. The latest policy documents (Climate Change Law, NCCS, and 5th
National Communication) prepared by GoM in 2012 and 2013 include commitments to
strengthening of social resilience to climate change. The new Government is committed to
creating of a national climate change system, and the number of ministries involved in the
CICC has expanded. Furthermore, the Government will finalize a new PECC and National
Climate Change Strategy by the end of 2013, and will establish a dedicated climate change
fund.
58. Strengthening Social Resilience through Long-term Climate Change Adaptation
Planning oriented to the state level. The risk to this PDO is considered low to negligible.
The state governments of Quintana Roo, Campeche and Yucatan, which make up the Yucatan
Peninsula, have publicly committed to finalizing the Regional Adaptation Strategy and the
establishment of a regional fund. Furthermore, INECC has confirmed that three additional
states are in the process of preparing State Climate Change Action Programs, and additional
funds have been made available to support this initiative.
59. Strengthening Social Resilience through Disaster Risk Reduction and Territorial
Development Actions at the Municipal Level. PRAH continues to support Municipal
Climate Change Resilience efforts, despite institutional responsibility being moved from
SEDESOL to the newly constituted SEDATU. One potential risk is the decreased budget
resources which have been assigned to PRAH for the purposes of continuing Atlas
preparation (when the Program was created in 2011 it was originally allocated a budget of
190mn MXN, but in 2012 it was cut down to 45mn MXN). Another potential risk relates to
the limited capacity on the part of municipalities to control the quality of risk atlases
produced. Recently, SEDATU has taken steps to improve quality, through better coordination
with CENAPRED, as well as introducing guidelines for the preparation of quality risk atlases.
Furthermore, the sustainable urban development guidelines prepared by SEDESOL as part of
the DPL program are now mandatory elements of the scoring criteria used by DUIS during
their evaluation of applications for state-backed mortgages. The main challenge facing the
implementation of projects evaluated using these criteria is the mixed capacity of municipal
governments in territorial planning and urban management, and the transition of
responsibility for coordinating DUIS to the newly established SEDATU. Finally, SAGARPA
continues to be committed to enrolling additional smallholders in the CADENA program, and
is in the process of rolling out a new generation of CADENA, with a specific focus on
vulnerable social groups and municipalities.
19
60. Strengthening Social Resilience at the Community Level through Sustainable
Community Forest Management. By all accounts, the gains made in establishing
collaborative institutions for more sustainable community forest management appear durable,
and have significant institutional support at the federal (from SEMARNAT, CONABIO, and
SAGARPA), State and Municipal Level. Further evidence of sub-national commitment to
DUIS can be seen from the successful preparation of a REDD+ Strategy on the Yucatan
Peninsula.
5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance
5.1 Bank Performance
(a) Bank Performance in Ensuring Quality at Entry Rating: Satisfactory
61. The performance of the Bank in assisting the Borrower to identify, prepare and appraise the
operation is deemed satisfactory. The Bank team effectively built upon the experience gained
by the GoM through implementation of climate change programs and activities, including a
comprehensive National Climate Change Strategy and the related PECC. In addition, the
team did a thorough review of relevant lessons learned in other operations, both in Mexico
and elsewhere, as well as the August 2009 Development Policy Lending Retrospective. These
lessons served to inform the operation’s design and ensure its successful implementation.
The operation’s design benefited from Mexican as well as international experience. A
particular strength of the preparation of the operation was the engagement of multiple sectors
from the World Bank and Government of Mexico, namely environment and natural
resources, agriculture and rural development, urban development and disaster risk
management, and social development (for more details see Annex 8).
(b) Quality of Supervision
Rating: Satisfactory
62. Members of the Bank team provided ongoing implementation support, helping client
counterparts progress towards meeting the operation’s outcome indicators and providing
timely technical support. Task team members included social development, forestry, climate
change, and urban development specialists. The technical support program provided during
implementation was particularly valuable and included intensive technical support to INECC
for the installation and operation of a Mexico-specific version of the climate change
knowledge portal, a stakeholder workshop on developing robust information systems for
climate change adaptation, and a dissemination workshop to discuss the latest results of the
analytical work conducted by the Bank on the topic of social resilience to climate change.
(c) Justification of Rating for Overall Bank Performance
Rating: Satisfactory
63. Overall, the Bank’s performance is considered satisfactory. The Bank team provided external
validation as well as valuable analytical and advisory services to GoM’s counterparts.
5.2 Borrower Performance
(a) Government Performance
Rating: Satisfactory
64. As mentioned earlier, the actions agreed under this operation were part of the GOM’s own
agenda with respect to climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. Thus, the
operation had a remarkable level of support. In addition to the political support, Mexico has
20
the institutional and technical tools characteristic of a sophisticated middle-income country,
which makes it a highly effective partner.
(b) Implementing Agency or Agencies Performance
Rating: Satisfactory
65. Inter-sectorial coordination was an important determinant of the operation’s success.
SEMARNAT played a key leadership role as the ministry responsible for overseeing the
PECC’s implementation and for preparing Mexico’s Communications to UNFCCC, which, in
turn, defined the climate change adaptation agenda. The Under-secretary of Urban
Development formerly under SEDESOL, and currently under SEDATU, played a crucial role
in successfully implementing and monitoring priority programs and initiatives agreed under
the program (PRAH, the Sustainable Urban Development Guidelines). SAGARPA continued
to collaborate with the World Bank on the evaluation of its flagship climate risk insurance
program, and was well placed to provide timely information on progress towards the agreed
outcome indicator.
(c) Justification of Rating for Overall Borrower Performance
Rating: Satisfactory
66. Overall, the Borrowers’ performance is deemed satisfactory for the reasons stated above.
6. Lessons Learned
(a) Lessons of wide general application
67. Sustained engagement on the part of the Bank is critical to effectively engage in reform
processes over the medium and long term. The Bank program of climate change in
Mexico constitutes an outstanding example of engagement with a sophisticated middle-
income country in which the Bank has deployed the full range of available instruments,
including investment lending, Development Policy Loans as well as CTF concessional
financing, GEF and other grants. The Bank’s program of financial and knowledge services
has also included credit enhancement, hedging swaps, catastrophe risk management and
advisory services.
68. INECC recognized the positive impact of this DPL for encouraging the strengthening of
social resilience, as there is still a gap in assessing the social impacts of climate change,
and most climate change planning instruments tend to focus primarily on mitigation. Going forward, the institutions working on climate change in Mexico recognize the need for
promoting adaptation measures and strategies, encouraging social participation, incorporating
gender issues, as well as considering the views of the most vulnerable groups, especially
indigenous communities.
69. As a coordinator of State Climate Change Action Programs and Municipal Climate
Action Plans, INECC should emphasize the importance of focusing on adaptation
measures, establishing clear actions with the institutions that are responsible for them,
defining indicators with baseline values and goals, and including a description of their M&E
systems. It would be difficult otherwise to measure the impacts of these Programs, and to
address the needs of the most vulnerable groups.
70. The sectors relevant to climate change go beyond those addressed in this operation.
Aside from environment, agriculture, forestry, urban, territorial and social development, it is
important to consider the integration of climate change adaptation in a wider range of sectors.
For example, it may be necessary to consider changes in education policy to create curricula
that addresses climate change adaptation, and is tailored to specific regional vulnerabilities.
21
71. The creation of stakeholder forums at the national and subnational level presents an
opportunity to share information and generate feedback on adaptation measures. The
program contributed to the establishment of a number of participatory and multi-actor forums
such as REDD+ consultative technical councils. These forums can serve as mechanisms for
generating feedback on the quality and sustainability of adaptation tools and measures,
providing a participatory feedback mechanism.
(b) Project-specific lessons
72. The operation’s policy content and prior actions should reflect the Borrower’s own
program and priorities developed with the benefit of a national policymaking process
that involves broad public consultation. The Borrower’s ownership and stakeholder
support for the program were critical to its successful implementation. This DPL was fully
inserted within Mexico’s PECC, which in turn, supports key components of the PND, which
was widely consulted in accordance with participatory processes mandated by Mexican law.
73. Prior actions should be limited to a few key policy and institutional reforms. Without
such a focus, implementation by the Borrower and supervision by the Bank risk losing sight
of the operation’s priorities. These actions proved to be essential and sufficient to achieving
the program’s outcomes.
74. During the Program preparation it is important to define indicators to which the
Federal Government is committed as part of their existing programs and initiatives. Because the Federal ministries are the main counterparts, it is difficult to assure the
achievement of indicators that involve the active participation and commitment from other
levels of government, such as states.
75. Given the innovative nature of the actions agreed, a Development Policy Loan was the
most appropriate financing instrument. This was especially the case as enhancing social
resilience is based more on innovative arrangements for policy planning and implementation.
Because of the innovative characteristic of the policy actions agreed, a stand-alone DPL (as
opposed to a programmatic series DPL) was an appropriate approach, allowing for a great
degree of flexibility in policy experimentation.
76. One of the challenges related to focusing on institutional arrangements is the longer
term and indirect impact on the goal of shared prosperity and eliminating extreme.
However, the policy program was successful in putting in place important institutional and
governance arrangements that can enable shared prosperity, and poverty reduction, in the
future.
7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners
(a) Borrower/Implementing agencies
Comments have been received from Government of Mexico and were included in the main text.
Additional comments are included in Annex 4.
(b) Cofinanciers
See Annex 5.
(c) Other partners and stakeholders
Not applicable.
22
Annex 1. Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes
(a) Task Team members
Names Title Unit Responsibility/
Specialty
Lending
Rodrigo Serrano-Berthet Sr Social Development Specialist LCSSO TTL
Angélica Núñez Sr Urban Specialist LCSUW Co-TTL
Laurent Debroux Sector Leader ECSSD Co-TTL
Ricardo Hernández Sr. Environment Specialist LCSEN LEN, TAP
Margaret Arnold Sr. Social Development Specialist SDV LEN, TAP
Richard Damania Lead Environmental Economist LCSEN LEN, TAP
Ana Elisa Bucher Climate Change Specialist ENV LEN, TAP
Oscar Ishizawa Disaster Risk Management Specialist LCSUW LEN
Ulrich Hess Sr. Economist CPMF LEN, TAP
Fabio Pittaluga Sr. Social Development Specialist LCSSO LEN, TAP
Alejandro de la Fuente Social Development Economist SDV LEN, TAP
Todd Crawford Lead Operations Consultant LCSSD LEN
Nicolas Perrin Sr. Social Development Specialist ECSS4 LEN, TAP
Maria Poli Extended Term Consultant LCSSO LEN
Gisela Campillo Junior Professional Officer LC1 LEN
Ana Paola López Short Term Consultant LCSSO LEN
Maximillian Ashwill Extended Term Consultant LCSSO LEN
Graciela Reyes Retana, Junior Professional Associate LC1 LEN
Maribel Cherres Program Assistant LCSSO LEN
Damaris Garay Language Team Assistant LC1 LEN
Nancy Montes de Oca Language Team Assistant LC1 LEN
Diana Jimenez Language Team Assistant LC1 LEN
Mariangeles Sabella, Sr. Counsel LEGLA LEN
Gamila Kassem Consultant LEGLA LEN
Xiomara Morel Sr. Financial Management Specialist LCSFM LEN
Joost Draaisma Sr. Country Economist LC1 LEN
Victor Ordoñez Senior Finance Officer CTRLN LEN
Maninder Gill Sector Manager LCSSO LEN
Gustavo Saltiel Program Manager AFTWR LEN
Alexandra Ortiz Sector Leader LCSSD LEN, TAP
Harold Bedoya Operations Advisor LC1 LEN
Supervision
Martin Lenihan Sr Social Development Specialist LCSSO ICR, TAP
Rodrigo Serrano Sr Social Development Specialist LCSSO SPN, TAP
Alejandro de La Fuente Economist AFTP1 ICR, TAP
Ana Paola Lopez Social Development Consultant LCSSO ICR, TAP
Ana Bucher Climate Change Specialist CPF TAP
Juan Carlos Serrano Sr Financial Mgt Specialist LCSFM SPN
ICR Preparation
Martin Lenihan Sr Social Development Specialist LCSSO
Ana Paola Lopez Social Development Consultant LCSSO
23
(b) Staff Time and Cost
Stage Labor Travel Total
Current FY (2014)* 11084 7458 18572
FY 2013 67372 34082 128032
FY 2012 136337 22751 178760
FY 2011 181160 52040 324525
FY 2010 4259
Total 400212 116331 649889
*Difference is other cost
24
Annex 2. Beneficiary Survey Results
Not Applicable
25
Annex 3. Stakeholder Workshop Report and Results Not Applicable
26
Annex 4. Summary of Borrower's ICR and/or Comments on Draft ICR Comments have been received from Government of Mexico and were included in the main text.
The Government of Mexico also points out that this lending operation was implemented
to recognize the Government’s policies, programs and procedures that contribute to strengthening
social resilience to climate change.
The GoM would like to clarify that the total amount of the loan was used in conformity with the
requirements of the Borrower’s income, budgetary and public debt laws and the terms of the Loan
Agreement. The percentage of the Sector Code (Section D of the Data Sheet) should be
understood as the distribution of the actions with respect to the Program, and not as a distribution
of resources among the sectors that implemented the policies.
27
Annex 5. Comments of Co-financiers Agence Francaise de Developpement (AFD) provided co-financing, in the form of €300,000,000
for the third policy area of the operation (Sustainable Community Forestry), and used the same
policy matrix to monitor progress. They also participated in joint AFD-WB implementation
support missions. Overall, AFD were highly satisfied with the results of the program. It was noted
that the collaboration agreement between CONAFOR and SAGARPA worked well, resulting in
an improved policy dialogue between the two institutions. They were similarly impressed by the
results of the initiative to foster a landscape approach to forest management through inter-
municipal coordination in Jalisco, and now Yucatan. It was noteworthy that the collaborative
institutions created had been charged with administering federal funds, which is a significant
development in Mexico.
The focus of the program on sub-national initiatives allowed a unique opportunity for AFD and
the Bank to collaborate on municipal and inter-municipal initiatives. In additional to the DPL,
AFD provided a €2mn Technical Assistance Grant to support these initiatives. AFD, was also
satisfied with the engagement of civil society in policy planning, having observed the active
participation of civil society representatives in National Consultative Technical Councils. Based
on their experience with this policy area, AFD are hoping to apply the lessons learned, in terms of
good practice, to implement a similar program with CONANP, which will focus on biodiversity
and territorial planning.
28
Annex 6. Stages of Climate Change Engagement in Mexico by type of services
provided. .
Foundations
(Before 1999)
Early Support
(1999–2007)
Strengthening
(2007–2009]
Consolidation
(2010–2014)
Solid Waste Management
Pilot Project (P007628)
Urban Transport Project
(P007615)
Community Forestry
(P007700)
Renewable Energy for
Agriculture Project
(P060718)
Introduction to Climate-
friendly Measures in
Transport (P059161)
Programmatic Environment
DPLs I and II (P079748)
Mexico: Waste
Management and Carbon
Offset Project (P088546)
Climate Change DPL
(P110849)
Environmental
Sustainability DPL
(P095510)
Sustainable Rural
Development (P108766)
First Multi-peril CAT
bond
Adaptation to Climate Change
Impacts in the Coastal Wetlands in
the Gulf of Mexico (P100438)
Urban Transport Transformation
Program (P107159)
Green Growth DPL (P115608)
Adaptation to CC in the Water
Sector DPL (P120134)
Low-carbon DPL (P121800)
Strengthening Social Resilience to
Climate Change (P120170)
Forest and Climate change SIL, and
Forest Investment Program (FY12)
Modernization of National
Meteorological Service SIL (FY12)
LAC Region Landfill Gas
Initiative (P104757)
Evaluation of Energy
Efficiency Initiatives
(P099734)
Economic Assessment of
Policy Interventions in the
Water Sector (P096999)
Carbon Finance Program
for Mexico (P104731)
Low-carbon Study
(MEDEC) (P108304)
Mass Urban Transport-
Federal Program
(P110474)
PA for Environmental and Climate
Change Policies
Social Impacts of Climate Change
(P112024)
MoU Subnational CC (P105849)
Othon P. Blanco Sustainable
Development Strategy (P122021)
SEP Adaptation of the Water Sector
to CC
CC Public Expenditure Review
(FY12)
Forest Carbon Partnership Facility
(FY11-13)
Policy Framework Development and
Mainstreaming Climate Change in
Key Development
Sectors (P121527)
Mexico Case Study for the Financial
Innovations for Social and Climate
Resilience (FISCR) Initiative
(P125838)
Consolidation &
Strengthening of the
Mexican Office for
Greenhouse Gas Mitigation
(P060412)
Preparation of the CTF
Investment Plan
Water sector events in the lead-up to
COP16
Energy-efficiency conference
High-level facilitation activities
related to COP16
Agriculture and forestry sector
events during COP16
South-south collaboration on
forestry during COP17
Stages of Climate Change Engagement in Mexico
Fin
anci
al S
erv
ices
Kn
ow
led
ge
Ser
vic
es
Co
nv
enin
g S
erv
ices
29
Annex 7. List of Supporting Documents
Comisión Inter-sectorial de Cambio Climático (2009), Programa Especial de Cambio Climático
2009-2012, Poder ejecutivo, México, D.F.
Gobierno de México (2013), Plan Nacional de Desarrollo 2003-2018.
Gobierno de México (2012), Ley General de Cambio Climático. DOF 06-06-2012
Gobierno de México (2007), Plan Nacional de Desarrollo 2007-2012
Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales – SEMARNAT (2013), Estrategia Nacional
de Cambio Climático. Visión 10-20-40.
Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales – SEMARNAT (2012), México - Quinta
comunicación nacional ante la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio
Climático. November 1, 2012; México, DF.
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Change in Mexico. Washington DC, World Bank.
World Bank (2012), Mexico – Strengthening Social Resilience to Climate Change Development
Policy Loan, Program Document, Report No. 65160-MX, January 25 2012, Washington,
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Washington, D.C.
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FY2008–2013, Washington, D.C.
30
Annex 8. Analytical Program during Preparation and Implementation
During preparation, findings of preliminary PSIA work pointed out the vulnerability of the
most marginal municipalities and the absence of disaster prevention instruments such as risks
atlases, which contributed to the identification of associated prior actions. The PSIA focused on
the distributional impacts of climate change, which served to inform the prioritization of social
vulnerability and resilience to climate change as a policy priority. Other relevant analytical and
advisory work conducted during preparation included two reports on Climate Change and
territorial development in the State of Michoacan; a Technical Advisory Program with SEDESOL
and SEMARNAT on Climate Change Adaptation, which developed a Climate Vulnerability
Municipal Index and a guide to Sustainable Local Development, and support to the municipality
of Othon P. Blanco in Quintana Roo, in formulating a Sustainable Development and Sustainable
Tourism Strategy.
During implementation, an ESW on Social Dimensions of Climate Change in Mexico, was
published and disseminated to GoM counterparts. This report identified the key drivers of socio-
spatial differences in resilience and vulnerability10
to climate change in Mexico, along with policy
actions and institutional reforms at different levels of governance to strengthen resilience and
reduce vulnerability among poor households in exposed places. These analytical findings
underpinned the agreed policy areas of the DPL. The report identified as a challenge the limited
municipal capacity to pro-actively prevent and manage disasters, which was addressed by the
efforts to strengthening municipal capacity to prevent disasters under SEDATU’s PRAH. Another
challenge was mainstreaming adaptation within local and rural development initiatives, which
was addressed by the support to the PEACCs coordinated by INECC. Finally, the study analyzed
the role of SAGARPA’s CADENA in assisting household disaster recovery, which was further
strengthened under the DPL. The operation recognized the ambitious goals for adaptation to
climate change that had been set forth in the PND and PECC. However, it was also noticed that
there was a gap in assessing the social impacts of climate change in the government’s plans and
instruments, as well as the need to strengthening adaptation in the Mexican policy framework.
Bank team responsible for preparation benefited from an intimate knowledge of the country’s
social development sector and its priorities. It worked closely with SEMARNAT, SEDESOL-
SEDATU, and SAGARPA to identify a set of key steps needed to further mainstream the
adaptation to climate change with focus on the most vulnerable.
Additionally, during implementation, the Bank facilitated access and use of real-time climate
relevant information through the WB Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP). This virtual
platform facilitates the analysis, exploration, and synthesis of global, national, and subnational
climate change impacts and risk reduction datasets at multiple levels of details.
10
Vulnerability is defined as the extent to which climate change might damage or harm social or
environmental systems.
31
Annex 9. Status of Key Outcome Indicators
Key Outcome Indicators by Completion Status
Policy Area 1:
Number of States that completed during 2012-2013
Climate Change Action Programs that included
specific measures to promote social resilience
(baseline: 0, target: 3)
Inclusion of measures supported by SEMARNAT
and/or INE to address unsustainable growth of
tourism in coastal areas and livelihood co-benefits
of climate policies for indigenous communities in
the Regional Strategy for Climate Change
Adaptation in the Yucatán Peninsula.
Number of State Climate Change Action Programs
that included civil society participation in the
design of social resilience initiatives. (baseline 0,
target 3)
8 Completed / 267% Achieved
In progress / Partially Achieved. Since the
development of the Strategy involves the
coordination among three different sub-national
actors, it has been challenging to complete it within
the timeframe originally established, but evidence
points out to the completion of a strong and
comprehensive strategy in the medium term. A
roadmap for the strategy has been prepared during
consultative workshops with stakeholders from
each of the Yucatan Peninsula States, and public
commitments have been made by state government
participants for its completion, and the
establishment of a climate change action fund.
8 Completed / 267% Achieved
Policy Area 2:
Number of municipalities with high and very high
scores in PRAH's disaster risk index which are
implementing risk reduction institutional
strengthening and investment activities supported
by PRAH. (Source: PRAH's Risk Index; Baseline
January 2012: 0; target by March 2013: 60
municipalities).
Number of urban development projects evaluated
within the DUIS Working Group that have
incorporated at least the following criteria specified
in SEDESOL's Sustainable Urban Development
Guidelines: (i) location, (ii) connectivity and
accessibility, and (iii) risk prevention (target: 5
between January 2012-March 2013).
Percentage of eligible surface that is covered by
climate risk insurance (baseline: 69%; target: 74%)
105 Completed / 175% Achieved
10 Completed / 200% Achieved
75.4% Completed / 102% Achieved
32
Key Outcome Indicators by Completion Status
Number of REDD+ collaboration initiatives
between CONAFOR and/or SAGARPA and
subnational Governments in REDD+ Early Action
areas that are operational (baseline:0; target: 2)
Active social participation in REDD+ policy
making at sub-national level trough the operation of
local CTC-REDD+ (participation of civil society in
all meetings as reflected in minutes, with a
minimum 3 meetings per year per CTC).
At least, thirty three percent of participating
communities in REDD+ Early Action Areas
receiving support from regional landscape
management agents (baseline 0%, target 33%)
7 Completed / 350 % Achieved
2 meetings in Campeche, 4 in Quintana Roo / 100%
achieved
15.7% of participating communities received
support - 169 communities out of 1,074 / 47%
achieved