world bank document€¦ · 6/2/2017 · national comprehensive agriculture development priority...

REPORT NO.: RES25092

DOCUMENT OF THE WORLD BANK

RESTRUCTURING PAPER

ON A

PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING

OF

AFGHANISTAN AGRICULTURAL INPUTS PROJECT (AAIP)

APPROVED ON JUNE 17, 2013

TO

ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF AFGHANISTAN

AGRICULTURE SOUTH ASIA

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

The World BankAfghanistan Agricultural Inputs Project (AAIP) (P120397)

2

For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use OnlyFor Official Use OnlyFor Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AAIPANSCU

Afghanistan Agricultural Inputs ProjectAfghanistan National Seed Companies Union

ANSORARIABQS

Afghanistan National Seed OrganizationAgricultural Research Institute of AfghanistanBorder Quarantine Station

FM Financial ManagementISE Improved Seed EnterpriseMAIL Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and LivestockMOJ Ministry of JusticeNSBPAD

National Seed BoardProject Appraisal Document

PDOPPQD

Project Development ObjectivePlant Protection and Quarantine Directorate

PSE Private Seed EnterpriseRP Restructuring Paper

Regional Vice President: Annette Dixon Country Director: Shubham Chaudhuri

Senior Global Practice Director: Juergen VoegelePractice Manager/Manager: Martien Van Nieuwkoop

Task Team Leader: Hazem Ibrahim Hanbal, Amanullah Alamzai


3


Note to Task Teams: The following sections are system generated and can only be edited online in the Portal.

BASIC DATA

Product Information

Project ID Financing Instrument

P120397 Specific Investment Loan

Original EA Category Current EA Category

Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B)

Approval Date Current Closing Date

17-Jun-2013 30-Jun-2018

Organizations

Borrower Responsible Agency

Ministry Of Finance MAIL - Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock

Project Development Objective (PDO)

Original PDOAttain strengthened institutional capacity for safety and reliability of agricultural inputs and sustainable production of certified wheat seed. The development objective would be achieved through: (i) strengthening capacity in the value chain for producing certified wheat seed; (ii) preventing marketing of banned, hazardous, sub-standard, and unreliable pesticides and fertilizers; (iii) lowering the riskof introduction and spread of plant quarantine pests into the country; and (iv) improving farmers’ access to agricultural inputs ofreliable quality.

OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDOSummary Status of Financing

Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness ClosingNet

Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed

TF-15003 30-Jun-2013 30-Jun-2013 30-Jun-2013 30-Jun-2018 74.75 21.28 53.47


4


Policy Waiver(s)

Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)?No

Note to Task Teams: End of system generated content, document is editable from here.

I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING

1. The Project has produced a mixture of successes and failures while confronting a number of challenges including low capacity on the counterpart side to process complex and specialized procurements and an inability to implement a number of specialized tasks in a timely manner. Successes include good progress in capacity building and other soft activities, particularly in relation to wheat varietal development and seed production. In line with the project target, five new wheat varieties have been developed and will be submitted for release soon. In-country and external training for the counterpart staff has reached its target and more importantly, a cohort of 35 MSc students have returned after completing their two years of study in India. The ground work for the national pest and diseases survey, which is one of the key activities under the project, has also commenced.

2. However, delays in implementing a number of activities and weakness in processing more complex civil works and goods contracts have negatively impacted the overall implementation progress of the Project. In the last quarter of 2015, the Project achieved good results on a number of important civil procurements that are now at an advanced stage of implementation. Unfortunately, however, the momentum was not sustained, particularly due to significant turnover of key staff (including the project director). The delays in infrastructure procurement have also impacted the opportunity to improve research and seed production, quarantine, and other control laboratories as planned. Because of all these reasons, the overall project performance rating was recently downgraded from Moderately Satisfactory (MS) to Moderately Unsatisfactory (MU).

3. Despite its flagging implementation record, the Project remains fully in line with the country’s agriculture sector priorities; particularly the Strategic Priority 2: “Increased Wheat Production” outlined in the Government’s newly adopted National Comprehensive Agriculture Development Priority Program (2016-2020). It also contributes to Strategic Priority 3 “Horticulture Value-chain” by creating a functional phytosanitary system; this is one of the key obstacles for accessing higher end markets. In addition, the Project is fully aligned with Pillar I: “Developing Prioritized Value Chains” of Afghanistan Agriculture Sector Review (AASR) completed by the World Bank in 2014 and the World Bank’s Country Partnership Framework (CPF) objective 2.4: “Increased agricultural productivity” namely through efforts to improve access to key inputs.

4. Description and Status of Components. The Project has four components: (A) Improved Seed Production; (B) Quarantine Networks and Quality Control of Agro-chemicals; (C) Improved and Expanded Input Delivery Systems; and (D) Project Implementation and Management.

(a) Component A: Improve Wheat Seed Production. This component has three sub-components that are as follows:

(i) A1: Assistance to Agricultural Research Institute of Afghanistan (ARIA) including Varietal Selection and Production of Breeder Seed, A2: Assistance to Improved Seed Enterprise (ISE) including production of Foundation Seed and A3: Coordination of the Seed Sector.


5


(ii) Under Subcomponent A1 and A2 there are three major project elements: a) training; b) support to production; and c) infrastructure renovation / development. Under both sub- components the training and support to production has made good progress and has largely met its targets. However, a number of infrastructure investments are behind schedule and although it is likely that all the works will be completed, there will be little time during the project life to show benefits from the work.

(iii) For Sub-component A3, support to the NSB, and Private Seed Enterprises (PSEs) through the Afghanistan National Organization (ANSOR) has been less than had been planned. This is partly due to the lack of specialists in the Project and partly due to the uncertain status of ANSOR. The Ministry has recently introduced reforms to improve the functionality of ANSOR, and rename it as the Afghanistan National Seed Companies Union (ANSCU). The new entity has a new elected leadership and has demonstrated signs of improvements in achieving its mandate. The table below shows the budget execution status of Component A progress to the end of March 2017.

Budget in US$ Disbursed in US$ Value of Contracts in US$ signed and are under execution (but not yet disbursed)

Value of contracts in US$, under procurement

26,400,000 9,077,221 4,699,954 12,141,791

(b) Component B: Quarantine Networks and Quality Control of Agro-chemicals.

(i) This component is designed to establish the physical infrastructure and enhance the institutional capacity to implement relevant laws including the Pesticides Act and various regulations for quality control of agro-chemicals. Furthermore, this component involves the establishment of physical infrastructure and capacity to prevent the introduction of exotic quarantine insect pests and diseases, in addition to facilitating the export of fresh and dried fruits, and nuts by issuing internationally recognized quarantine/ phytosanitary certificates.

(ii) After long delays at the beginning of the project, several important contracts (construction of laboratories and quarantine units) were awarded in late 2015, and physical works have been initiated. Construction of the laboratory complex and seven Quarantine Stations is in progress while the Islam Qala Border Quarantine Station (BQS) is completed. Procurement for the laboratory complex and BQS equipment is being re-announced, while Rapid Fertilizer Test kits have been delivered to PPQD/BQS.

(iii) Although the project has recently demonstrated some good progress in executing civil work contracts, delays in the early stages of project implementation have prevented it from reaching its targets. While the planned infrastructure under this component should be completed within the current project life, it will not be possible to ensure they are fully operational as it will be necessary to provide on-the-job training and systems development once the laboratories and BQS are working. The Nationwide Insect Pest & Plant Diseases Survey has been initiated early this year and is making steady progress. On the legal reform programs, the Pesticides Act and the Plant Protection and Quarantine Law have been approved by the parliament and are awaiting the President’s ratification. The final draft of the Fertilizer Law has been sent to the MoJ and regulations for fertilizer use have also been finalized. The table below shows the budget execution status of the Component B progress to the end of March 2017.



29,900,000 4,112,756 4,532,738 1,590,094


6


(c) Component C: Input Delivery Systems. While Components A and B of AAIP address the availability and quality of major inputs, component C was designed to analyze current agricultural inputs delivery systems and pilot activities to improve farmers’ access to these inputs. A detailed plan for this component was not completed during the project preparation phase as it was contingent on value chain and market surveys. The execution of the plan was expected to commence after the MTR. In practice, this did not happen due to limited capacity and the complexity of the inputs sector. During the restructuring discussion, it was agreed that the component will be focused on piloting a voucher program for wheat seed delivery, as wheat is the key staple crop and the current delivery system does not function well. The table below shows the budget execution status of the Component C progress to the end of March 2017.



2,500,000 0 0 0

(d) Component D: Project Management and Monitoring. The Implementation Management Support Team (IMST) has continued to monitor the overall implementation of the Project, while has been hampered by lack of key staff in many cases. This has been caused by several factors including, key staff turnover, freeze on recruitment during the first year of implementation until a new Minister was appointed, and difficulty in identifying suitable international experts willing to work in Afghanistan. In the past few months, the Project made good progress in filling a number of key positions such as project director and procurement specialist, while the formal recruitment processes to fill the positions of senior procurement specialist and international procurement advisor are underway. The table below shows the budget execution status of the Component D to end of March 2017.

Overall Budget in US$ Actual expenditure in US$ as of end of March, 2017

15,900,000 3,009,180

II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES

5. This Restructuring Paper (RP) proposes the following changes to the Project: (i) changes to the grant proceeds, including cancelation of USD 7.5 million of funds and budget reallocation between components; (ii) changes to project activities; (iii) extension of the Project’s closing date by one year; (iv) changes to the results and monitoring framework; and (v) change to the procurement arrangements to reflect adoption of the new procurement framework by the project. In addition, under this restructuring proposal, OP 4.12 on involuntarily resettlement is triggered. The justification for each of the changes is as follows:

(a) Changes to the grant proceeds and reallocation of funds between components.

(i) Partial cancelation of funds: A total amount of US$ 7,500,000 is proposed to be cancelled as they cannot realistically be disbursed under the current scope of project. This is mainly because of a proposed reduction in the budget of Component D that was unrealistically estimated and a cancelation of US$ 500,000 for incentive payments to selected civil servants for the reasons as outlined in section (b) (i).

(ii) Budget reallocation between components: Under this restructuring, a budget reallocation between components is proposed to adjust funds distribution based on a more realistic budget requirement of each component. The original budget for the Component D, was estimated US$ 15,900,000, however, the most recent review shows that this component needs a total budget of US$ 7,460,000 until the end of the Project. The remaining funds of this


7


component after cancelation of the amount mentioned above is transferred to the Component A budget. Furthermore, a more realistic forecast demonstrates that Component B, requires budget in the amount of US$ 21,900,000 out of the original US$ 29,900,000 estimated for this component. Also, it is estimated that Component C only needs US$1,390,000 instead of the US$ 2,500,000 that was originally allocated. The combined savings from Components A and B will be also be added to Component A. The justification for increasing the Component A budget is that the costs for renovation and rehabilitation of research and seed production units under this component were underestimated during the preparation phase of the project. The Government has recently undertaken detailed surveys and designs that indicate a need for more funds and in line with this, the budget for Component A is increased to US$ 36,500,000.

(iii) In addition, disbursement under category 2 will be merged with category 1. Funds withdrawal under category 2 was made conditional until the Recipient had complied with a covenant regarding plant disease control in the Jalalabad area. This covenant has now been complied with by the Ministry, and a formal letter on lifting the applicable disbursement condition was sent to the Government on April 13, 2017.

Updated budget allocation per componentComponent Original Budget Revised Budget Variation

A 26,400,000 36,500,000 10,100,000B 29,900,000 21,900,000 (8,000,000)C 2,500,000 1,390,000 (1,110,000)D 15,900,000 7,460,000 (8,440,000)

Total 74,750,000 67,250,000 (7,500,000)

(b) Changes to project activities.

(i) Under the funding arrangements in the PAD, an amount of US$ 500,000 was allocated for incentive payments to selected civil servants working with the project staff conditional on the recipient’s preparation and adoption of a detailed plan setting forth eligibility criteria, payment structure, and other implementation arrangements for the incentive payments. Policy level decisions by relevant ministries would be required for this to go ahead, but MAIL has not demonstrated significant progress in this area. Consequently, this activity will be cancelled as the prospect for its implementation during the current timeframe of the project is very limited.

(ii) The Government has removed the class of “registered” seed from the certification scheme. This results in an increase in production of the other high-grade seed classes in order to meet the national requirement of certified seed. This change will not negatively affect the production of certified seed, which is the end result of the seed production chain. With the support provided by the Project, sufficient capacity is available to produce adequate foundation class of seed. This foundation seed will be used directly for the production of certified seed instead of registered seed. The support given by the project to ARIA, ISE and the PSEs is unchanged, but the EFA has been recalculated based on the new structure.

(iii) The Government has allocated the land of the crop research in Kabul (Dar ul Aman farm) for other purposes following the construction of the new parliament building nearby. A new site has been found at Kariz Mir to the North of Kabul. The project will support the development of this site.

(iv) The Project will provide support to the Seed Certification Directorate. This Directorate remains key to the establishment of a formal private seed sector as farmers will only be prepared to buy seed in the formal sector if they trust integrity of the seed certification scheme. Gaps in the current external support and opportunities to strengthen the seed certification scheme will be identified and implemented. This is expected to include the introduction of a database to record all stages of the certification process, provide public records of all crops, and


8


automate official label production. Key activities will include developing and implementing the seed database and training staff in its use.

(v) Under Component B, a review by the Government of the BQS network has suggested the need for expanding the function of three stations by adding fumigation facilities to them to facilitate export to higher paying markets. Accordingly, establishment of three fumigation houses in three selected locations has been added to the project’s investment program.

(vi) The main purpose of Component C, as per the PAD, was to analyze current agricultural input delivery systems and to develop a plan of action, to be followed by a pilot input delivery system. Specific activities under this component were supposed to be identified after the MTR. However, this has not yet happened due to limited capacity of the Project. Since the Project now has limited time ahead, it was decided to downsize the scope of this component to piloting a voucher system for wheat seed, which is the primary seed produced under the project. The main goal is to explore the possibility of replacing the currently insufficient government-led seed distribution system that is mainly based on providing subsidized seeds to a limited number of farmers. This approach has hindered the development of a vibrant market-based wheat seed distribution system. The pilot is an attempt to improve the situation by creating an environment which strengthens linkages between seed producers and farmers while the government phases out its involvement in seed distribution and focuses on its regulatory role. With this structure, the Component will not pursue piloting an ICT system as outlined in the PAD. Accordingly, these originally envisaged activities will be cancelled.

(vii) The project has already started to improve linkages between the formal seed production sector (the Private Seed Enterprises (PSEs) represented at the national level by ANSCU) and producers under sub-component A3. The proposed voucher program under Component C will build on this work and further support the PSEs in setting up seed demonstration plots to be managed by them. The demonstration sites will be established in key wheat growing areas and will enable farmers to learn the value of new varieties; the importance of high quality seed and bring together seed suppliers and potential customers as a precursor to establishing a fully privatized seed market in the future. The PSEs will receive financial and technical assistance in setting up these demonstration plots and they are expected to be fully funded by the PSEs after the project phases out in order to support direct sales to farmers.

(c) No Cost Extension.

(i) The delays in procurement and construction of infrastructure, particularly under component B mean that although the infrastructure will be completed within the current project lifetime and the staff will be trained to operate the laboratories there will be little or no time to ensure that the systems work smoothly, to provide on-the-job training of staff, to establish and embed operating procedures within the laboratories and with external stakeholders (traders, importers, exporters and other government institutions). A one year no-cost extension will allow the project to work with the laboratory staff to ensure that these systems are fully institutionalized and that an awareness campaign can be carried out to ensure that all stakeholders contribute to the improvement in quality of quarantine networks and quality control of agro-chemicals. The new closing date will be June 30, 2019.

(ii) The no-cost extension will also allow component A to further develop wheat varieties and ensure that the newly returned trainees are embedded in ARIA and ISE to improve their technical functionality. A pilot voucher system will be developed in conjunction with the program to improve awareness of new varieties and the value of high quality seed. The no-cost extension will give the project time to roll out these activities more widely and strengthen the development of a genuine market for seeds.

(d) Results and Monitoring Framework. The results and monitoring framework is amended to allow the project to adapt to changes made to the Project preparation. The main changes include:


9


(i) Reflecting the removal of the class “registered seed” from the certification system and the major reduction in seed quantities planned for by the National Seed Board. It also reflects removal of indicator that were relevant to Component C.

(ii) Adding a new indicator to fully cover the main activities (infrastructure in component B)

(iii) Adopting more realistic targets for a number of indicators under component A and B, particularly relating to farm land development and certified seed production to reflect changes made to the seed production arrangements.

(iv) The results framework amendments also take into account the 12-month extension.

(e) Gender: In Afghanistan women are extensively involved in agriculture, however, they are widely discriminated against in accessing land, knowledge, input, markets, and finance. In order to contribute in addressing this development issue, AAIP pays particular attention to integrating women farmers’ needs in its work programs ranging from policy to capacity development, including short-term and long-term trainings for the target counter-part staff. The Project provides gender disaggregated data as part of its quarterly reporting.

(f) Safeguards Arrangements.

(i) The overall safeguards performance of the project is Moderately Satisfactory (MS). Under this restructuring proposal, all the social and environmental safeguards arrangements remain the same, except for triggering OP 4.12 on involuntarily resettlement. The main reason is that some of the infrastructure items such as quarantine stations supported by AAIP require land at specific sites close to border crossings. The Government has identified land for all of the planned infrastructure, however, it has recently been reported that individuals have claimed ownership of land at a few of the sites. These claims are now being reviewed by the governmental and official departments including the courts. If any sites are found to be the property of private owners, under the current safeguards arrangements of the project, the Government will not be able to acquire the land in these locations even with compensation for the owner. This restructuring offers the opportunity to equip the project with the Resettlement Policy Framework provisions that will allow land acquisition as per World Bank OP 4.12, as and when the need arises. Accordingly, a Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF) was prepared by the Government and disclosed, following its clearance by the Bank, both in the Bank’s InfoShop and in country on April 26, 2017 and May 1, 2017, respectively.

(ii) AAIP’s envisaged support to the establishment of three fumigation houses is fully in line with the project’s PMP, which recognizes the use of pesticides for fumigation purposes. The project will provide for full compliance with the provisions of the PMP, including avoiding the use of any banned pesticides, and ensure that best international pest management practices will be applied and institutionalized. In pursuing this goal, a site-specific Pest Management Plan for each fumigation house will be developed before any investment is made. The Bank will review all three site-specific Plans on a prior-review basis to ensure that all essential elements are fully addressed.

(iii) To reflect the key changes in the safeguards arrangements, the Project’s ISDS and ESMF were updated. The updated ESMF was disclosed on April 27, 2017 in the InfoShop and on May 1, 2017 in country. The updated ISDS was disclosed on May 2, 2017, following its clearance by the RSA and PM.

(g) Change in procurement arrangements.

(i) Modifications to the project’s procurement arrangements have been applied to reflect adoption of the new World Bank Procurement Framework. With this change, procurements that will be initiated after approval of this


10


restructuring will be carried out in accordance with the new framework, while the on-going procurements will be completed based on the guidelines agreed during the project’s preparation phase.

(ii) Therefore, the procurement for the remaining activities under the project will be carried out in accordance with the Bank’s Procurement Regulations for Borrowers for Goods, Works, Non-Consulting and Consulting Services and applicable to Investment Project Financing (IPF) hereinafter referred to as “Regulations”. The project will be subject to the Bank’s Anticorruption Guidelines, dated October 15, 2006, and revised in January 2011 and as of July 1, 2016.

(iii) The World Bank’s Standard Procurement Documents (SPDs), Requests for Proposals, and Forms of Consultant Contract will be used. Goods, work, and non-consultancy service following Open National competition shall be procured using the agreed bidding documents for Afghanistan. In case of conflict/contradiction between the World Bank’s procurement procedures and any national rules and regulations, the World Bank’s procurement procedures will take precedence as per Article 4(2) of the Procurement Law of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan dated October 7, 2016.

(iv) As per the requirement of the Regulations, the PIU will prepare a Project Procurement Strategy for Development (PPSD) to decide procurement methods and approaches for procurement (template of PPSD already shared). Once PPSD is complete and procurement officials are identified, Bank will arrange procurement training for them. The project will implement the World Bank “Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement” (STEP) system. Details of the procurement activities, presently prepared in the procurement plan, will be transferred to the STEP system. Initial training on the operation of the STEP system will be provided to the procurement officers of the Project.

Prior Review Thresholds (USD Million)

Type of Procurement High Risk

Works (including turnkey, supply and installation of plant and equipment, and public-private partnership)

5

Goods, information technology (IT), and non-consulting services 1.5

Consultants: firms 0.5

Consultants: individuals a 0.2

Note: The above thresholds apply for consultants/advisors and not contracted staff.

Goods and Non-Consulting Services: procurement method and threshold

Procurement Method Threshold Comment

1. Open International (Goods) 200,000 Equivalent or more

2. Open National (Goods) 200,000 Equivalent or less

3. Open International (None-Consulting Services) 200,000 Equivalent or more


11


4. Open International (None-Consulting Services) 200,000 Equivalent or less

5. RFQ (Goods) 50,000 Equivalent or less

6. RFQ (Works) 100,000 Equivalent or less

Consulting Services: consultants: selection methods and thresholds

(h) Prior Review Thresholds. In the case of contracts subject to prior review, the Implementing Agency shall seek the Bank’s no objection before granting/agreeing to: (a) an extension of the stipulated time for performance of a contract that either increases the contract price or has an impact on the planned completion of the project; (b) any substantial modification of the scope of works, goods, non-consulting services or consulting services; other significant changes to the terms and conditions of the contract; (c) any variation order or amendment (except in cases of extreme urgency) which singly or combined with all variation orders or amendments previously issued; increase the original contract amount by more than 15 percent; and (d) the proposed termination of the contract. A copy of all amendments to the contract shall be furnished to the Bank for its record.

(i) Appraisal Summary. The original appraisal summary included in the Project Appraisal Document (PAD) is still relevant and does not need any major change except the Economic and Financial Analysis (EFA) for which the key changes are described as follows.

(j) Economic and Financial Analysis. Budget for Component C, is being reduced by US$ 1,335,500. Allocations to component D is being reduced by US$ 8,491,684 and allocations to Component B being reduced by US$8,322,142. Funds allocated to Component A will be increased by US$ 10,478,425 (about 40 percent increase). In light of these changes in budget allocations, it is useful to evaluate what the economic returns are to the project with the changed budget levels, new timelines and moderately revised work programs.

(i) The Original Economic Analysis: Parameters, Assumptions, and Results. The original project evaluated the two main investment components- improved wheat seed production and plant quarantine networks and quality control of agro-chemicals (Components A and B). The discount rate used was 12 percent, and benefits were discounted over a 25-year period. The evaluation found that the project held an economic net present value of US$34.7 million and an economic rate of return of 19 percent with the breakdown of results between project components detailed in the table below.1

Economic Analysis Summary (original project document, page 99), million US$

1 Page 99, original AAIP Project Paper May 2013.

Selection Method Threshold Comments

1. CQS for Firms US$300,000 equivalent or less

2. QCBS, QBS, FBS, LCS Depending on the nature and complexity of assignment


12


PVC PVB NPV FRRComponent A: Improved Wheat Seed Production

25.9 47.1 21.2 20.5%

Component B: Quarantine Networks and Agrochemicals

26.1 43.0 16.9 19.5%

Overall Project 55.4 90.1 34.7 19.0%

(ii) The Current Analysis: Economic Evaluation Results in Light of Project Restructuring. The current analysis uses available information in the original project document to evaluate the economic rate of return in light of project restructuring.

(iii) Component A. For Component A, the document states that ‘the net annual incremental benefit due to a more efficient seed production system is estimated at US$ 3.5 million’2. It also states that the ‘overall annual incremental economic benefits due to efficiency gains from the improved seed system are assessed at US$6.8 million resulting from savings in scarce irrigated land resources (49%) and reduced unit cost of certified wheat seed production. These gains will gradually build up starting from Year 4 onwards to reach full benefits by Year 10’3. In addition, there are gains due to improved wheat productivity. The project paper states that ‘The incremental economic benefits due to productivity gains are estimated at US$ 5.1 million per year at full development. The benefits will start from Year 4 onwards and gradually improve over time as adoption rates increase – reaching the full potential by year 10’4.

(iv) Project development has been sufficiently successful such that there are no changes made to these parameters for the current analysis. The project is on course to achieve results in these areas. The question outstanding is, ‘Is there still a positive net economic benefit for these activities in light of the budget increase to this project component?’

(v) The current analysis uses these same cash flow parameters and same discount rate of 12 percent. Cash flows are discounted over a 21-year period rather than a 25-year period as the project has already been in operation for 4 years. Using these parameters, the current analysis finds that the value of the discounted cash flows of this component are US$ 43.8 million. Less the total revised investment costs of US$ 36.9 million, the project holds a net present value of US$ 6.9 million and an economic rate of return of 13.8 percent.

(vi) The results of the present evaluation indicate that even with the increase in investment levels, this component of the project still holds a positive net present value and an acceptable economic rate of return.

(vii) Sensitivity Analysis. Sensitivity Analysis indicates that the project parameters are moderately robust to changes in assumptions about future benefits. The sensitivity analysis models a 10 and 20 percent decrease in the efficiency of improved seed production, and a 10 and 20 percent decrease in the assumed overall productivity gains. The results are presented in table below.

2 Page 95, para 245, AAIP Project Paper May 20133 Page 95, para 246, AAIP Project Paper May 20134 Page 96, para 247, AAIP Project Paper May 2013


13


NPV (million US$)

ERR

Decline in seed efficiency 10% 4.34 13.1%20% 1.80 12.5%

Decline in overall wheat productivity 10% 5.05 13.3%

20% 3.22 12.8%

(viii) For decreases in the efficiency of seed production, the project still holds a positive net present value and an economic rate of return of 12.8 and 12.1 percent for respectively 10 and 20 percent decreases in efficiency. For decreases in estimates of future productivity benefits, the project also still holds a positive net present value and acceptable economic rate of return.

(ix) Component B. The allocated funds for this component will be reduced from US$29.9 million to US$21.5 million. The benefits stream for this component of the project result from estimated increases in exports due to an improved phytosanitary network that enables Afghan horticultural products to access higher value markets and obtain higher prices resulting from improved product quality. The benefit value of this improvement is estimated at US$10.5 million that reaches full value at year 10 of the project. Due to project delays, the benefits of the project have been moved back an additional 2 years (over the initial 4 that have been removed from the ongoing project). Under this scenario, using the original budget for this component of US$29.9 million, the project yields an EIRR of 12.3% and an NPV of US$1.04 million. If the new investment level of US$21.5 million is used (the restructured project budget level), this component of the project has an EIRR of 15.4% and an NPV of US$8.4 million.

(x) Sensitivity Analysis: If the proposed increase in exports is reduced by 20% over the life of the project from US$10.5 million to US$ 8.4 million, the NPV for this component of the project is still US$ 3.0 million and the EIRR is 13.3%.

(xi) Ultimately, under nearly all scenarios, it looks as though the project obtains acceptable economic rates of return under the restructured investment levels.

Note to Task Teams: The following sections are system generated and can only be edited online in the Portal.


14


I. SUMMARY OF CHANGES

Changed Not Changed

Change in Results Framework ✔

Change in Components and Cost ✔

Change in Loan Closing Date(s) ✔

Cancellations Proposed ✔

Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔

Change in Disbursement Estimates ✔

Change in Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔

Change in Legal Covenants ✔

Change in Procurement ✔

Change in Implementation Schedule ✔

Change in Economic and Financial Analysis ✔

Change in Implementing Agency ✔

Change in Project's Development Objectives ✔

Change in Disbursements Arrangements ✔

Change in Systematic Operations Risk-Rating Tool (SORT) ✔

Change of EA category ✔

Change in Institutional Arrangements ✔

Change in Financial Management ✔

Other Change(s) ✔

Change in Technical Analysis ✔

Change in Social Analysis ✔

Change in Environmental Analysis ✔

IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S)

OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_RESULTS_TABLE

RESULTS FRAMEWORK

Project Development Objective Indicators PDO_IND_TABLE

Wheat Seed multiplication factors/Foundation seed (FS) to Breeder seed (BS)


15


Unit of Measure: TextIndicator Type: Custom

Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action

Value 14.8 23.21 26 Revised

Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2018

Wheat Seed multiplication factorsUnit of Measure: TextIndicator Type: Custom Supplement


Value 9.6 n/a 23 No Change

Production of Certified Wheat Seed as % of Annual National Seed Board PlanUnit of Measure: PercentageIndicator Type: Custom


Value 0.00 70.00 95.00 Revised

Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2018

Listing of plant quarantine pests and diseasesUnit of Measure: TextIndicator Type: Custom


Value 0 0 1 No Change

Date 01-Jul-2013 22-May-2016 30-Jun-2018

Food product samples tested for pesticides residuesUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom



Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2018

Pesticide samples tested for complianceUnit of Measure: Number


16


Indicator Type: Custom



Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2018

Intermediate IndicatorsIO_IND_TABLE

New wheat varieties submitted for releaseUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom


Value 3.00 0.00 5.00 No Change

Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2018

Developed farm land area in ARIAUnit of Measure: Hectare(Ha)Indicator Type: Custom


Value 60.00 6.60 350.00 Revised

Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2019

Staff trained in ARIAUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom


Value 0.00 410.00 500.00 Revised

Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2019

Staff trained in ARIA- MaleUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom Breakdown


Value 0.00 383.00 470.00 New


17


Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2019

Staff trained in ARIA- femaleUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom Breakdown


Value 0.00 27.00 30.00 New

Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2019

Developed farm land area in ISEUnit of Measure: Hectare(Ha)Indicator Type: Custom


Value 80.00 0.00 566.00 Revised

Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2019

Staff trained in ISE-TotalUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom


Value 80.00 47.00 150.00 Revised

Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2019

Staff trained in ISE- MaleUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom Breakdown


Value 0.00 46.00 140.00 New

Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2019

Staff trained in ISE- FemaleUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom Breakdown



18


Value 0.00 1.00 10.00 New

Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2019

Foundation seed area rejectedUnit of Measure: PercentageIndicator Type: Custom



Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2018

Registered seed area rejectedUnit of Measure: PercentageIndicator Type: Custom


Value 29.00 0.00 8.00 Marked for Deletion

Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2018

Percentage of certified seed production purchased by farmers (instead of donors and/or government)Unit of Measure: PercentageIndicator Type: Custom



Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2018

Pesticide samples chemically analyzed for registrationUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom



Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2018

Pesticide samples subjected to-bio-efficacy trialsUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom




19


Date 01-Jul-2013 10-Dec-2015 30-Jun-2018

Phytosanitary certificates issuedUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom


Value 0.00 0.00 1100.00 No Change

Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2018

Quarantine inspections carried outUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom


Value 0.00 0.00 1000.00 No Change

Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2018

Fertilizer samples tested for chemical purityUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom



Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2018

Fertilizer lots inspectedUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom


Value 0.00 0.00 1500.00 No Change

Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2018

Staff trained in PPQD-totalUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom


Value 0.00 22.00 119.00 Revised

Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2018


20


Staff trained in PPQD- MaleUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom Breakdown


Value 0.00 21.00 100.00 New

Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2019

Staff trained in PPQD- FemaleUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom Breakdown


Value 0.00 5.00 9.00 New

Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2019

Field surveys completedUnit of Measure: TextIndicator Type: Custom


Value 0 1 1 No Change

Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 29-Jun-2013

Action plan for investment in input distribution system developedUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom


Value 0.00 0.00 1.00 Marked for Deletion

Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2018

Pilot voucher scheme for wheat seed developed and implemented.Unit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom



Date 01-Jul-2013 01-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2019


21


Number of Laboratory and Quarantine stations refurbished/established and functioningUnit of Measure: Amount(USD)Indicator Type: Custom


Value 0.00 2.00 14.00 New

Date 24-Apr-2017 24-Apr-2017 30-Jun-2019

OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_COMPONENTS_TABLE

COMPONENTS

Current Component Name

Current Cost

(US$M)Action Proposed

Component NameProposed

Cost (US$M)

A. Improved Wheat Seed Production 26.40 Revised A. Improved Wheat Seed

Production 36.50

B. Plant Quarantine Networks and Quality Control of Agro-chemicals

29.90 RevisedB. Plant Quarantine Networks and Quality Control of Agro-chemicals

21.90

C. Input Delivery Systems 2.50 Revised C. Input Delivery Systems 1.39

D. Project Management and Monitoring 15.90 Revised D. Project Management and

Monitoring 7.46

TOTAL 74.70 67.25

OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_LOANCLOSING_TABLE

LOAN CLOSING DATE(S)

Ln/Cr/Tf StatusOriginal Closing

Revised Closing(s)

Proposed Closing

Proposed Deadline for Withdrawal

Applications

TF-15003 Effective 30-Jun-2013 30-Jun-2018 30-Jun-2019 30-Oct-2019

OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_CANCELLATIONS_TABLE

CANCELLATIONS

Ln/Cr/Tf Status Currency Current Amount

Cancellation Amount

Value Date of

Cancellation

New Amount

Reason for

CancellationTF-15003-001

Disbursing USD 74,750,000.00 7,500,000.00 28-Feb-2017 67,250,000.00 LOAN

RESTRUCTUR


22


ING, COST SAVINGS

OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_REALLOCATION _TABLE

REALLOCATION BETWEEN DISBURSEMENT CATEGORIES

Current Allocation Actuals + Committed Proposed Allocation Financing %(Type Total)

Current Proposed

TF-15003-001 | Currency: USD

iLap Category Sequence No: 1 Current Expenditure Category: GD,WK,NCS,CS,TG&IOC EXCPT 1Aii&1Bii

72,397,200.00 16,281,785.20 67,250,000.00 100.00 100

iLap Category Sequence No: 2 Current Expenditure Category: GD,WK,NCS,CS,TG

1,852,800.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0

iLap Category Sequence No: 3 Current Expenditure Category: INCENTIVE PAYMENTS

500,000.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0

Total 74,750,000.00 16,281,785.20 67,250,000.00

OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_DISBURSEMENT_TABLE

DISBURSEMENT ESTIMATES

Change in Disbursement EstimatesYes

Year Current Proposed

2011 0.00 0.00

2012 0.00 0.00

2013 0.00 0.00

2014 6,256,732.87 6,256,733.00

2015 3,171,733.13 3,171,733.00

2016 20,000,000.00 5,240,950.00

2017 27,000,000.00 8,000,000.00


23


2018 18,321,534.00 25,965,590.00

2019 0.00 18,614,994.00

OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_COMPLIANCE_TABLE

COMPLIANCE

Safeguard Policies

Safeguard Policies Triggered Current Proposed

Environmental Assessment (OP) (BP 4.01) Yes Yes

Natural Habitats (OP) (BP 4.04) No No

Forests (OP) (BP 4.36) No No

Pest Management (OP 4.09) Yes Yes

Physical Cultural Resources (OP) (BP 4.11) No No

Indigenous Peoples (OP) (BP 4.10) No No

Involuntary Resettlement (OP) (BP 4.12) No Yes

Safety of Dams (OP) (BP 4.37) No No

Projects on International Waterways (OP) (BP 7.50) No No

Projects in Disputed Areas (OP) (BP 7.60) No NoOPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_LEGCOV_TABLE

LEGAL COVENANTS

Loan/Credit/TF Description Status Action

TF-15003

Finance Agreement :Section I.A.4 | Description :The Recipient shall by not later than July 31, 2013, update, in accordance with terms of reference agreed with the World Bank, the Financial Management Manual, and shall thereafter carry out the Project in accordance with the updated Financial Management Manual. | Due Date :31-Jul-2013

Partially complied with No Change

TF-15003Finance Agreement :Section IV.B.1, par. (b) | Description :No withdrawal shall be made for payments under Category (2) unless and until the recipient has: (i)

Complied with Marked for Deletion


24


in accordance with ToR agreed with the WB, conducted a review of plant disease risks in the Jalalabad area; (ii) consulted with the WB on the conclusions and recommendations of such review; and (iii) implemented any actions recommended by the WB in a manner and substance satisfactory to the WB. | Frequency :CONTINUOUS

TF-15003

Finance Agreement :Section IV.B.1, par. (c) | Description :No withdrawal shall be made for payments under Category (3) unless and until recipient has prepared and adopted a detailed plan setting forth eligibility criteria, payment structure and other implementation arrangements for the Incentive Payments. | Frequency :CONTINUOUS

Complied with Marked for Deletion

Annex I: Updated list of infrastructures under component A and actual/estimated costs

Name of Farm Key activities Current actual or estimated cost in

US$1-Balkh: Farms (ISE) Khasa Paz

Laser leveling (195 Ha), Water reservoir (1), Deep well (1), Water pump room, Cutting and canal Lining (15,338 m), Repairing workshop, Trashing floor, Storage, Office building (10 room), Septic tank, Boundary wall (5900 m).

1,888,459

2-Parwan: Khomi Kalan Farm (ISE)

Laser leveling (38 Ha), Water reservoir (2), Deep well (2), Water pump room (2) Canal Lining (2,638 m), Road (2,532 m) Repairing workshop, Trashing floor, Storage, Office building (10 Room), Septic tank, Boundary wall (5900 m).

1,956,655

3-Herat: Falahat (ISE) Laser leveling (217 Ha), Water reservoir (6), Deep well (5) Canal lining (11489 m), Road construction (17661 m), Culverts (28), Equipment shelter, Repairing workshop, Trashing floor, Guard rooms (2), Boundary wall (11989 m), Rehabilitation of generator room, Rehabilitation of guard room, Rehabilitation and repairing of toilets, Rehabilitation of storage.

4,500,000

4-Kunduz: Vertoblaqi Farm (ISE)

Laser leveling (100 Ha), Water reservoir (2), Deep well (2), Water pump room (2, Canal lining (8648 m), Road construction (8073 m), Culverts (21 No), Equipment shelter, Repairing workshop, Trashing floor, Storage, Office building (8 Room), Septic tank, Boundary wall (3000 m), Rehabilitation of office building. 3,462,687

5-Nangarhar: Nangarhar Farm (ISE)

Office buildings (8 Rooms), Tube well, 500 MT storage, Threshing floor, Repair of workshop, Equipment shelter, Generator shelter, Fencing (1900m), culvert (L=12m), Guard Room.

450,000

6-Kunduz: Center Farm (ARIA)

Laser leveling (46 Ha), Water reservoir (2), Deep well (2 No), Water pump room (2), Canal lining (6533 m), Road construction (3354m), Culverts (29), Equipment shelter, Repairing workshop, Trashing floor, Storage building, Septic tank, Boundary wall (3700 m), Rehabilitation of guard room, Rehabilitation for store building (2), Rehabilitation of office building, Rehabilitation of conference Room.

2,865,671

7-Balkh: Dehdadi Farm (ARIA)

Laser leveling (15 Ha), Deep well (1), Canal lining (3041 M), Repairing workshop, Trashing floor, Septic Tank, Rehabilitation of gene-bank.

283,582

8-Bamyan: Mula Ghlam Farm (ARIA)

Laser leveling (6 Ha), Deep well (1), water pump room (1 No), Canal Lining (370 m), Road construction (980 m), Culverts (5 No), Repairing workshop, Trashing floor, Rehabilitation of office building (2 No).

288,170

9-Nangrahar: Shashambagh & Jadeed Farms (ARIA)

Shashambagh Farm; Canal lining, Fence, 10 Rooms Office Buildings, Thrashing Floor, Repair workshop, Equipment shelter, Boundary wall, Road Repairing, Rehabilitation of storage.

Jadeed Farm: Equipment shelter, Repairing workshop, 4 Rooms office building, Generator shelter, Rehabilitation of PHD center, Canals and gravel road.

660,000

10-Helmand: Bolan Laser leveling (54 Ha), Water reservoir (1), Deep well (1), Canal

26

Farm (ARIA) lining (641 m), Road construction (3354m), Culverts (29), Equipment shelter, repairing workshop, Trashing floor, office building (8 Rooms), Septic tank, Boundary wall (3455 m).

521,784

11-Badakhshan: Baharak Farm (ARIA)

Laser leveling (8 Ha), Water reservoir (2), Deep well (2), water pump room (2), Canal lining (2306 m), Road construction (1990 m), Culverts (16), Equipment shelter, Repairing workshop, Trashing Floor, Office building (4 Rooms), Septic tank.

1,078,592

12-Takhar: Bagh-e-Zakhira Farm (ARIA)

Laser leveling (8 Ha), Water reservoir (1), Deep Well (1 No), Water pump room (1 No), Canal lining (1220 m), Road construction (879 m), Culverts (3), Equipment shelter, Repairing workshop, Trashing Floor, Septic tank, Boundary wall (1750 m), Rehabilitation of guard room, Rehabilitation of warehouse and office building.

868,759

13-Harat: Urdokhan Farm (ARIA)

Laser leveling (187 Ha), Water Reservoir (5 ), Deep Well (2 No), Water pump room (4 ), Cutting of field (176356 cu.m), Filling of field (176052 cu.m), Canal Lining (10,390 m), Road construction (14,720 m), Culverts (54 ), Equipment Shelter, Repairing workshop, Trashing Floor, Office building (8 Rooms), Guard Rooms (2 ), Generator Room, Septic Tank, Boundary Wall(9860 m), Rehabilitation of Guard Room, Rehabilitation of Generator Room, Rehabilitation of Storage (2), Rehabilitation of Animals Husbandry Building (2 ).

3,000,000

14-Kandahar: Kohkaran Farm (ARIA)

Water reservoir (1), Deep well (1), Water pump room (1 No), Canal lining (1097 m), Equipment shelter, Repairing workshop, Trashing floor, Storage building, Office building (4 Rooms), Septic tank, Boundary wall (1220 m).

605,260

15-Kabul: Darulaman Farm (ARIA)

Laser leveling (18 Ha), Water Reservoir (1), Deep Well (1 No), Water pump room (1 No), Cutting of field (19424 cu.m), Filling of field (16401 cu.m), Canal Lining (3960m), Road construction (6099 m), Culverts (8 No), Equipment Shelter, Repairing workshop, Trashing Floor, Storage building, Office building (10 Rooms), Guard Room (2 No), Septic Tank.

894,821

Total budget in US$ 23,324,440

27

Annex II: Revision of the Results Framework

Current Status Rational/ Remarks

Project Development Objective (PDO): Strengthened institutional capacity for safety and reliability of agricultural inputs and sustainable production of certified wheat seed.

No change/ Maintained

PDO Indicators (Current (PAD)

1 Wheat seed multiplication factors (2 parts)

Maintained and modified

Remove part B of this indicator (Ratio Registered seed: Foundation Seed) as Registered seed has been removed from the certification system and cannot be measured. (Part A: Ratio Breeder seed to Foundation seed remains unchanged)

2 Production of Certified Wheat Seed Modified

The original PAD indicator is not within the control of the project. Total seed production determined by National Seed Board plan. The description for this indicator is removed and replaced with “Production of Certified Wheat Seed as % of Annual National Seed Board Plan”.

3 Listing of plant quarantine pests and diseases No Change

4 Product samples tested for pesticides residuesClarification of indicator

“Product” in indicator description to be clarified as “Food Product” to avoid confusion with indicator 5 below.

5 Bad pesticide samples intercepted ModifiedCurrent indicator is not under the control of the project. Change to “Pesticide samples tested for compliance”

Intermediate Results Indicators (PDO numbering)

1 New varieties submitted for releaseNo change/ Maintained

2 Developed farm land area in ARIAMaintained and target is modified

Change in values to reflect the results of surveys carried out on farms and delayed procurement of works

28

3 Staff trained in ARIAModified Amend methodology to “ARIA staff trained – staff members may be

recorded more than once for different courses. In addition, the indicator is disaggregated by Gender.

4 Developed farm land area in ISEMaintained and target is modified

Change in values to reflect the results of surveys carried out on farms and delayed procurement of works

5 Staff trained in ISEModified Amend methodology to “ARIA staff trained – staff members may be

recorded more than once for different courses”. In addition, the indicator is disaggregated by Gender.

6 Foundation seed area rejected Unchanged

7 Registered seed area rejected RemovedRemove indicator as registered seed no longer produced, ISE is multiplying foundation seed to certified seed directly.

8 Percentage of certified seed production purchased by farmers (instead of donors and/or government)

Maintained

9 Pesticide samples chemically analyzed for registration Maintained

10 Pesticide samples subjected to-bio-efficacy trials Maintained

11 Phytosanitary certificates issued Maintained

12 Quarantine inspections carried out Maintained

13 Fertilizer samples tested for chemical purity Maintained

14 Fertilizer lots inspected Maintained

15 Number of Laboratory and Quarantine stations refurbished/established and functioning

New Indicator To reflect infrastructure development under component B.

16 Staff trained in PPQD & FQCAIDModified The FQCAID is removed as this Directorate has been dissolved. In

addition, the indicator is disaggregated by Gender.

29

17 Field surveys completed Maintained

18 Action plan for investment in input distribution system developed

Removed Removed

19 ICT applications pilotedmodified Reworded with “Pilot voucher scheme for wheat seed developed and

implemented”.

30

Annex III: Revised Results Framework

IndicatorUnit of Measure

BaselineProgress to date

End Target (June 2019)

Frequency MethodologyResponsible for data collection

Definition/ Comments

PDO Level Results Indicators

Wheat seed multiplication factor

Ratio 14.8 19.5 26 AnnualAnnual farm budget survey for ISE

IMST & ISE

Ratio of Foundation seed (FS) to Breeder seed (BS)

Production of Certified Wheat Seed as % of Annual National Seed Board Plan

% 0 70 95 Seed Certification Directorate data

Seed Certification Directorate

Listing of plant quarantine pests and diseases

Binary 0 0 1End of the Project

Project MIS IMST & PPQD

Food product samples tested for pesticides residues

Number 0 0 100Periodic survey

Periodic survey & MIS IMST

Pesticide samples tested for compliance

Number 0 0 75 MonthlyProgress monitoring & Project MIS

IMST

Intermediate Results Indicators

New wheat varieties submitted for release

Number 3 0 5 AnnualProgress monitoring & project MIS

IMST & ARIA

Varieties submitted to Varietal Release Committee of MAIL

31

Developed farm land area in ARIA

Hectares, Cumul.

60 6.6 350Six-monthly

Progress monitoring & Project MIS

IMST & ARIA

Land fully developed with laser leveling, irrigation and equipment support for wheat seed production

Staff trained in ARIA-TotalNumber, Cumul.

0 410 500 Quarterly

Progress monitoring & Project MIS - staff members may be recorded more than once for different courses

IMST & ARIA

Staff training includes MSc and PhD degrees, short-term programs (both in-country and abroad)

Staff trained in ARIA-MaleNumber, Cumul

0 383 470 Quarterly


IMST & ARIA


Staff trained in ARIA-FemaleNumber, Cumul

0 27 30 Quarterly


IMST & ARIA


Developed farm land area in ISE

Hectares, Cumul.

80 0 566Six Monthly

Progress monitoring & Project MIS

IMST & ISELand fully developed with leveling, irrigation

32

and equipment support for wheat seed production

Staff trained in ISE-TotalNumber, Cumul.

0 47 150 Quarterly


IMST & ISE

Staff trained includes MSc degree, short-term programs (both in-country and abroad)

Staff trained in ISE-MaleNumber, Cumul.

0 46 140 Quarterly


IMST & ISE


Staff trained in ISE-FemaleNumber, Cumul.

0 1 10 Quarterly


IMST & ISE


Foundation seed area rejected % 12 9 5 AnnualProgress Monitoring & Project MIS

IMST & ISE

Expressed as percent of area planted with BS, rejected as un-certifiable

Percentage of certified seed production purchased by farmers (instead of donors

% 0 0 5 AnnualBaseline, midterm and end of project farmer survey

IMST

Percent of certified wheat seed produced purchased by

33

and/or government) farmers.

Pesticide samples chemically analyzed for registration

Number, Cumul.

0 0 25Six-monthly

Progress monitoring & project MIS

IMST and PPQD

Pesticide samples subjected to-bio-efficacy trials

Number, Cumul.

0 0 20Six-monthly

Progress monitoring & project MIS

IMST, ARIA and PPQD

Phytosanitary certificates issued

Number, Cumul.

0 0 1100 MonthlyProgress monitoring & project MIS

IMST and PPQD

Quarantine inspections carried out

Number, Cumul.


IMST and PPQD

Fertilizer samples tested for chemical purity

Number, Cumul.


IMST and FQCAID

Fertilizer lots inspected Number, Cumul.


IMST and FQCAID

Number of Laboratory and Quarantine stations refurbished/established and functioning

Number, Cumul.

0 2 14 AnnualProgress monitoring & project MIS

IMST, PPQD and FQAID

Number of facilities – 11 plant quarantine facilities plus 1 agrochemical laboratory complex.

Staff trained in PPQD-TotalNumber, Cumul.




34

Staff trained in PPQD-MaleNumber, Cumul.




Staff trained in PPQD-FemaleNumber, Cumul.




Field surveys completed Binary 0 1 1 Annual

Progress monitoring & Project MIS/ Outsource IMST

Pilot voucher scheme for wheat seed developed and implemented”.

Binary 0 0 1End of the Project

Project MIS IMST

35

Annex: IV: Worksheets for Economic and Financial Analysis

Current Analysis Discount Rate: 12 %Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

NPV Seed Efficiency $25.43 0 0 0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8

NPV Productivity $18.35 0 0 0 0.75 1.5 2.25 3 3.75 4.5 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1

Discounted Value of Cash flows

$43.79

Investment 36.9

Net Present Value $6.89

IRR 13.8% -36.9 0 0 0 4.25 5 5.75 6.5 7.25 8 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9

Sensitivity Analysis 10 % decrease in seed productivity- Discount rate:12%Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21




$41.24

Investment 36.9


IRR 13.1% -36.9 0 0 0 3.9 4.65 5.4 6.15 6.9 7.65 11.22 11.22 11.22 11.22 11.22 11.22 11.22 11.22 11.22 11.22 11.22 11.22

Sensitivity Analysis, Seed 20 % decrease in seed productivity- Discount rate:12%Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21




$38.70

Investment 36.9


IRR 12.5% -36.9 0 0 0 3.55 4.3 5.05 5.8 6.55 7.3 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54

36

Sensitivity Analysis, Wheat Productivity 10 % decrease in wheat productivity- Discount rate:12%Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21


NPV Productivity $16.52 0 0 0 0.67 1.35 2.02 2.7 3.37 4.05 4.59 4.59 4.59 4.59 4.59 4.59 4.59 4.59 4.59 4.59 4.59 4.59


$41.95

Investment 36.9


IRR 12.5% -36.9 0 0 0 3.55 4.3 5.05 5.8 6.55 7.3 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54 10.54

Sensitivity Analysis, Wheat Productivity 20 % decrease in wheat productivity- Discount rate:12% Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21


NPV Productivity $16.52 0 0 0 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.4 3 3.6 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08

Discounted Value of Cash flows $40.12

Investment 36.9


IRR 12.8% -36.9 0 0 0 4.1 4.7 5.3 5.9 6.5 7.1 10.88 10.88 10.88 10.88 10.88 10.88 10.88 10.88 10.88 10.88 10.88 10.88