Document of

The World Bank

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Report No:

PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT

FOR

SMALL RETF GRANT

(US$ 2.2 MILLION EQUIVALENT)

TO THE

GOVERNMENT OF SENEGAL

FOR A

STATISTICS FOR RESULTS PROJECT

February 20, 2014

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the

performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World

Bank authorization.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

1USD = 510 FCFA, July 15, 2013

FISCAL YEAR

January 1 – December 31

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AfDB African Development Bank

ANSD National Agency for Statistics and Demography

CCI Construction Costs Index

CNS National Statistics Council

CPS Country Partnership Strategy

CRESS Country Report on Support to Statistics

DP Development Partners

ENSAE National School of Statistics and Economic Analysis

ETVA Transition to Working Life Survey

FM Financial Management

ILO International Labour Organisation

MDG Millennium Development Goals

NAEMA Nomenclature for the Activities of AFRISTAT Member States

NSDS National Strategy for Development of Statistics

NSS National Statistical System

PER-Stat. Public Expenditure Review for statistics

PPRA Public Procurement Regulation Agency

PSI Policy Support Instrument

SBDS Standard Bidding Documents

SDDS Special Data Dissemination Standard

SNDES National Strategy for Economic and Social Development

SNES Senegal National Employment Survey

SPPI Services Production Price Index

SRF Statistics for Results

SRF-CF Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund

SYSCOA West Africa Accounting System

TCSP - CTPS Technical Committee of Statistical Programs

TSA Tourism Satellite Account

Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop

Country Director: Vera Songwe

Sector Director: Marcelo Giugale

Sector Manager: Miria Pigato

Task Team Leader: Philip English

iii

SENEGAL

Statistics for Results Project

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

I. Introduction and Context ..................................................................................................7

A. Country Context ............................................................................................................ 7

B. Sectoral and Institutional Context ................................................................................. 8

C. Relationship to CPS ...................................................................................................... 9

II. Proposed DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ...................................................................9

A. Proposed Development Objective............................................................................... 10

D. Project Beneficiaries ................................................................................................... 10

B. Key Results Indicators ................................................................................................ 10

III. Project DESCRIPTION ..................................................................................................10

A. Project Components .................................................................................................... 10

B. Project Financing ........................................................................................................ 12

C. Project Cost and Financing ......................................................................................... 13

IV. IMPLEMENTATION .....................................................................................................14

A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements ........................................................ 14

B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation ............................................................................ 14

C. Sustainability............................................................................................................... 14

V. APPRAISAL SUMMARY ..............................................................................................17

A. Economic and Financial Analyses .............................................................................. 17

B. Financial Management ................................................................................................ 17

C. Procurement ................................................................................................................ 18

D. Safeguard Policies ....................................................................................................... 19

iv

DATA SHEET

SENEGAL

Project Name

Statistics for Results Project

AFRICA

AFTPM

Basic Information

Date: Sectors: General Public Administration (BC), Vocational

Training (EV)

Country Director: Vera Songwe Themes: Managing for Development Results (30%), Economic

Statistics, Modeling and Forecasting (40%), Improving Labor Market

(30%)

EA Category: C

Sector

Manager/Director:

Marcelo Giugale

Project: P146695

Instrument: Grant SFR-CF

Team Leader(s): Philip English

Recipient Government of Senegal

Executing Agency: Agence Nationale de la statistique et de la démographie – ANSD

Contact: Mr. Babakar Fall Title: Director General

Telephone No.:

Fax No. +221 869 21 40

+221 33 824 36 15

Email: babakar.fall@ansd.sn or babakarfall@yahoo.fr

Project Implementation Period: Start Date: May 2014 End Date: April 2017

Expected Effectiveness Date: April 1, 2014

Expected Closing Date: August 31, 2017

Project Financing Data(US$M)

[ ] Loan [X] Grant [ ] Other

[ ] Credit [ ] Guarantee

For Loans/Credits/Others

Total Project Cost : US$2.2 million Total Bank Financing : US$2.2 million

Total Co financing : Financing Gap : 0

Financing Source Amount(US$M)

BORROWER/RECIPIENT 0.0

IBRD

IDA: New

v

IDA: Recommitted

Others US$2.2 million

Financing Gap

Total US$ 2.2 million

Expected Disbursements (in USD Million)

Fiscal Year FY14 FY15 FY16

Annual 0.584 0.711 0.605

Cumulative 0.584 1,295 1,900

Project Development Objective(s)

Components

Component Name Cost (USD Millions)

Production of statistics 1.085

ENSEA-Senegal & Training 0.432

Project coordination and M&E 0.383

Compliance

Policy

Does the project depart from the CAS in content or in other significant respects? Yes [[ ] No [ X ]

Does the project require any exceptions from Bank policies? Yes [ ] No [ x ]

Have these been approved by Bank management? Yes [ ] No [ ]

Is approval for any policy exception sought from the Board? Yes [ ] No [ x ]

Does the project meet the Regional criteria for readiness for implementation? Yes [ x ] No [ ]

Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No

Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 X

Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 X

Forests OP/BP 4.36 X

Pest Management OP 4.09 X

Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 X

Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 X

Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 X

Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 X

Projects on International Waters OP/BP 7.50 X

Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 X

Legal Covenants

Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency

vi

Description of Covenant

Team Composition

Bank Staff

Name Title Specialization Unit UPI

Philip English Lead Economist Task Team Leader AFTP4 98408

Françoise Genouille Statistical Officer Statistics AFTPM 20825

Sidy Diop Senior Procurement Specialist Procurement AFTPC 334834

Fatou Fall Samba Financial Management Specialist Financial Management AFTFM 322681

Djibril Ndoye Poverty Economist Poverty and statistics AFTP4 288526

Khady Fall Lo Program Assistant Program Assistant AFTP4 354385

Non Bank Staff

Name Title Office Phone City

Locations

Country First Administrative

Division

Location Planned Actual Comments

7

I. INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT

A. Country Context

1. Senegal’s democratic system confirmed its maturity by holding the recent

presidential election (February-March 2012), which was widely viewed as fair and

transparent. The country saw the victory of opposition parties and the second political shift in

12 years. Despite deadly protests preceding the first round of voting on February 26, 2012, the

second round on March 25, 2012 was calm. The incumbent President Abdoulaye Wade conceded

his defeat three-and-a-half hours after voting closed. Macky Sall, the leader of the opposition,

was sworn in as President on April 2, 2012. He faces huge challenges, such as restoring trust and

confidence in the state and the values of the Senegalese republic while also meeting urgent

popular demand for action on jobs and the cost of living.

2. In the decade since 1995, Senegal enjoyed robust per capita GDP growth, but,

starting in 2006, the economy was buffeted by a series of domestic and external shocks. Unfavorable rains prompted a sharp decline in agricultural output during 2006-07. The

international food and oil price shocks over 2007-08 slowed the economy down, increased

inflation, and resulted in a significant deterioration of Senegal’s external and fiscal positions.

Weaknesses in fiscal policy and public financial management compounded the fiscal costs of

ineffective and untargeted subsidies for electricity and food. As a result, by the end of 2008 the

Government had accumulated domestic arrears to the private sector equivalent to more than 3

percent of GDP, forcing a strong corrective response that tightened fiscal policy. The onset of the

global financial crisis in 2008 and its deepening in 2009, together with continued electricity

shortages, further contributed to the general slowdown of the country’s economic activity. Real

annual GDP growth averaged 3.4 percent in the 2006-10 period, down from an average of 4.4

percent in the 2000-05 period.

3. Despite the crisis in Mali and political uncertainties in the first quarter, growth

rebounded to 3.5 percent in 2012 up from 2.6 percent in 2011 thanks to strength in services

and good agricultural production. In 2011, real GDP growth slowed to 2.6 percent, due to a

large contraction in agricultural output. Agricultural output declined drastically in the fourth

quarter when more than 50 percent of the annual production is harvested, leading to a fall in

annual output of 21 percent. However, electricity supply improved, which helped a recovery in

manufacturing. Dynamism in the telecommunication, transport, and financial sectors contributed

to the good performance of the tertiary sector. The poor harvest in 2011 limited the input supply

for the agroindustry sector and weakened vegetable oil production in 2012. Import demand from

Mali (Senegal’s largest single export market) softened somewhat due to the insecurity situation,

impacting cement and petroleum exports, as well as transit trade services. However, the good

harvest in 2012 as well as strong performance in the emerging gold sector allowed Senegal to

accelerate growth to 3.5 percent. Growth is expected to improve to 4.6 percent in 2014.

4. Despite recent increases in food prices in the world market, inflation has declined to

1.4 percent, down from 3.4 percent in 2011, while the food component rose by 2.5 percent

driven by the bad crop harvest in 2011. Inflation was 0.7 percent in 2013.

5. In June 2013, the IMF completed the fifth review of the three-year Policy Support

Instrument (PSI) for Senegal. Performance under the program has been broadly satisfactory,

with all quantitative assessment criteria met, and most structural benchmarks – mainly in public

8

financial management – met or partially met. The authorities have requested that the PSI be

extended by one year to end-2014, and this was agreed by the IMF Board.

6. Senegal approved in November 2012 the National Strategy for Economic and Social

Development (SNDES). This serves as the reference framework for Senegal’s economic and

social policy over the period 2013-17. An Indicator Monitoring Committee has been established

under the National Agency for Statistics and Demography (ANSD) supervision to produce a

periodic report on SNDES implementation.

B. Sectoral and Institutional Context

7. Statistics development in Senegal. Since 2004 Senegal has strengthened its National

Statistical System (NSS) with the establishment of a more independent statistical institution

(“Agence Nationale de la Statistique et de la Démographie – ANSD”), a statistical law, a

National Strategy for the Development of Statistics, NSDS (“Schéma Directeur de la

Statistique”), and the establishment of a new statistical school (ENSAE-Senegal). Recently, in

2011; a new statistical law was approved focusing on the organization of the nation-wide survey

program, the access to data and the management for results approach for the statistical

development. The National Statistics Council (CNS), the highest level of coordination body of

the NSS, validated the NSDS action plan during a meeting held in March 2011. Overall NSDS

implementation is supervised by the multi sector Technical Committee of Statistical Programs

(CTPS), with ANSD ensuring the secretariat.

8. The coordination of the NSS (with more than 100 statistical units) has been

identified as a constraint to improving efficiency in statistical production. Some entities of

the statistical system, particularly those in the line ministries, lack technical capacity to produce

reliable and relevant data and analysis. The new framework for the development of statistics

(NSDS) assigns ANSD as the coordinator of the system to provide methodological support and

quality control. Under the NSDS, support will be provided to different sectors to improve the

production of statistics production in fields deemed important in SNDES and NSDS and to

improve the coverage of National Accounts.

9. The current NSDS is based on four program areas: (i) strengthening the institutional

set-up; (ii) improving the quality of statistical products; (iii) improving the dissemination and

promotion of the utilization of statistics; and (iv) capacity building to ensure the efficiency of the

SNS. The NSDS breaks down all activities and their costs by strategic program area, objective

and action plan. The selected activities are translated into projects during the implementation of

the NSDS.

10. The data collection program is strong with regular income-expenditure household

surveys (ESPS), demographic and health surveys (DHS-MICS), and a population census linked

with an agriculture census (RGP IV- RGAE). The last ESPS and DHS were conducted in 2011

and the population census was carried out in 2013. A variety of other surveys is conducted as

part of the multi-year survey program of ANSD and in response to special requests from donors.

ANSD has established a data bank (« Archivage national des données d'enquêtes du Sénégal –

ANADS »), which contributes to the dissemination of primary data. ANSD intends to adopt SNA

2008 for its System of National Accounts and expects to be upgraded to the IMF Special Data

9

Dissemination Standard (SDDS) in 2013 with the production of employment statistics (a

component of the SFR project).

11. The Development Partners (DP) have established a « Thematic Group to finance

NSDS implementation » chaired by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and UNFPA to

coordinate donor efforts in supporting Senegal’s statistical development. In an effort to manage

the funding of Senegal’s statistical development, ANSD with World Bank support, conducted a

Public Expenditure Review for statistics (PER-Stat). As part of the PER-Stat, ANSD prepared a

Country Report on Support to Statistics (CRESS), which describes the funding of statistical

activities in Senegal by twelve donors, and indicates a sharp increase in partner support for 2012.

The plan now is to establish a Statistical Development Fund to which interested donors would

contribute for the implementation of the national statistics strategy in a more predictable and

efficient manner, avoiding ad hoc requests and focusing resources on national priorities.

12. The current proposal is intended to fill gaps in the survey program established

under the NSDS with support from a previous World Bank TF. Other donors have financed

key surveys in the areas of health and education (USAID, UNICEF), agriculture (WFP, FAO),

and poverty (CIDA, UNDP, World Bank). It focuses on the performance and needs of the private

sector, which tend to be less popular with other donors, but are central to improving the

development prospects of the country.

13. The government of Senegal is strongly supportive of the greater use of statistics for

policy-making and impact evaluations of development policies. In fact, a recent ministerial

seminar on National Accounts, chaired by the (former) Head of State, brought statistics and

statistical development issues to the forefront of the national policy dialogue.

C. Relationship to CPS

14. The proposed project is aligned with the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for

Senegal. Specifically, it supports the priority attached to inclusive growth and job creation

through private sector development. In addition, it responds to the IDA16 Results Measurement

System requirement that all CPSs include a review of national statistical systems and an

identification of what is needed to strengthen capacity, both to generate and to use statistical

information. The project will also contribute to monitoring performance of the poverty reduction

strategy (SNDES), notably in the areas of employment generation and tourism development.

Furthermore, it is fully consistent with the first pillar of the 2011 Africa Regional Strategy –

competitiveness and employment. Finally, the Bank’s support to the NSDS program is in line

with the Statistics for Results Facility Catalytic Fund (SRF-CF) that aims to provide support to

developing countries to help in improving their statistical capacity.

II. PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES

15. The Government of Senegal has reformed its statistical system to make it more

competitive and responsive to the economic, political and social changes under way, to

address the needs of the National Strategy for Economic and Social Development (SNDES)

and Millennium Development Goals (MDG). The provision of good quality statistics will also

10

contribute to stronger governance and accountability and the creation of an evidence-based

decision-making culture.

A. Proposed Development Objective

16. The development objective of the proposed project is to better inform public and

private sector decision-makers by filling gaps in the statistical knowledge base in the areas

of employment, tourism, construction and services, as identified in the NSDS, as well as

build capacity for the production and dissemination of reliable and relevant data.

D. Project Beneficiaries

17. Major beneficiaries are key producers and users of statistics in Senegal. They

include: (i) ANSD and key Ministries, Departments and Agencies, Local Government

Authorities, who are responsible for the SNDES monitoring systems; (ii) policy makers and

planners in the public and private sectors; (iii) researchers and academia; (iv) international

organizations, including donors; and (v) the civil society in general through better and faster

access to information.

B. Key Results Indicators

18. The project expected results are in line with those of the NSDS and aim to inform

public and private decision makers and social players on: (i) the evolution of the prices of

services at the production level through a monthly index based on existing regional and

international methodologies; (ii) price levels and trends of the construction sector based on

existing regional and international methodologies; (iii) jobs and the job market through a system

of periodic surveys: and (iv) the size and composition of the tourism sector. It also aims to: (v)

respond to the demand for statisticians of the public and private sectors by implementing the

strategy of the ENSAE-Senegal; and (vi) improve demand-side management by establishing an

annual user satisfaction survey.

19. The achievement of the PDO will be measured by user satisfaction with the

availability, quality, and timeliness of the following statistics on a quarterly or monthly

basis: (i) price index for production of services; (ii) cost of construction index; (iii) employment

conditions and labor statistics; and (iv) tourism statistics. Another outcome indicator will be the

availability of female statisticians for the public and private sector.

III. PROJECT DESCRIPTION

A. Project Components

20. The project has three components, which are integral parts of the NSDS, and are

designed to support the implementation of the four programs of the NSDS and complete

the system of data collection. Their selection was made taking into account the priorities of the

National Strategy for Economic and Social Development (SNDES).

11

Component 1 – Production of Statistics

21. This component has three sub-components that are carried out by ANSD: (i) Price

statistics for production of services; (ii) construction statistics, and (iii) employment and labor

market conditions statistics; and one sub-component that will be carried out by the Ministry of

Tourism (with the support of ANSD).

Price statistics for production of services: For many years, Senegal has shifted toward a

service-oriented economy. The service sector is the main provider of employment and

income, providing over 50% of GDP. In addition to trade and public administration, the

sector is dominated by transport services, postal and telecommunications service,

financial services and miscellaneous business services. The costs of these services are an

important part of the operating costs of enterprises present in the country. Monitoring of

the prices of services (level and evolution) has become very important and highly

demanded by users. The project will develop a methodology and establish a mechanism

to produce Services Production Price Index on monthly basis (SPPI)1.

Construction Costs Statistics: The Construction Costs Index (CCI) concerns mainly the

construction of houses, but it can be adapted to other Buildings and Public Works. The

construction industry is one of the most dynamic sectors of the economy. The

implementation of major construction programs in housing and infrastructure highlights

the urgent need for monitoring indicators of construction costs so as to control allocation

mechanisms and price revisions of public and private markets. These price indicators

would also serve as a useful basis to define a housing and social infrastructure policy.

AFRISTAT has already developed methodologies for constructing the CCI and public

works indices, and Senegal plans to adapt them. The project will develop a methodology

and establish a mechanism to produce a monthly CCI (Indice des prix à la construction).

Employment and labor market conditions statistics:. Job creation has become a top

priority for the government of Senegal but statistics on the labor market are seriously

lacking. Such data are essential for assessing the impact of policies, projects and

development programs included in the SNDES. To understand this poorly documented

and multidimensional reality, it appears crucial to examine in more depth employment

conditions and disparities between demographic groups. This information is crucial to

design employment policies that address the causes of unemployment and

underemployment and fight against poverty. The project will develop methodologies to

establish a permanent mechanism to measure employment characteristics in Senegal

through a quarterly employment survey -National Employment Survey in Senegal

(Enquête Nationale sur l’Emploi au Sénégal -- ENES).

Elaboration of a Tourism Satellite Account: Support to the tourism sector has been

identified by the Technical Committee for Statistical Programs (TCSP) as a priority. The

operation will support the ministry responsible for tourism in the elaboration of a

Tourism Satellite Account (TSA), which will measure the importance and the impact that

1 Indice des Prix à la Production des Services

12

tourism has on the Senegalese economy, as measured by the national accounts. Tourism

is an inherently difficult sector to measure, and this often leads to underestimation of its

importance and a misunderstanding of its evolution. Yet it probably remains the single

most important export of goods and services. This component will help ANSD fulfill its

broader mandate of supporting statistics capacity in line ministries.

Component 2 - ENSAE–Senegal & Training:

22. The ENSAE-Senegal is a new institution and is still under development. Indeed,

ENSAE-Senegal started its training activities in October 2008 with the installment of its

progressive programs for initial and continuing training. The release of its first graduates was in

June 2011. The main mission of ENSAE-Senegal is to meet the demand for training,

development and innovation by the national statistical system and public and private companies.

To achieve this, it is imperative that ENSAE-Senegal has a strategic plan that will define the

major policies for its future development. The project will support the overall teaching capacity

of the school by strengthening the capacity of trainers; reinforcing the bilingualism (French,

English) of trainees; facilitating the enrollment of women; expanding the library; and providing

furniture and equipment for the new location of the school in the ANSD building.

Component 3 – Project coordination and M&E:

23. With the adoption of the NSDS, Senegal shifted its approach of developing statistics

from a supply-driven to a demand-driven one; it needs a tool to monitor the demand and

feedbacks from users. The project will develop methodologies to establish a permanent

mechanism to measure the evolution of the demand of statistics through an annual user

satisfaction survey. Specific questions in the survey will focus on the products developed under

this project to enable an evaluation of project performance. The rest of this component will cover

project implementation and will be funded primarily by the ANSD budget.

B. Project Financing

24. The project will be financed by the Statistics for Results Facility– Catalytic Fund 2

(SRF-CF2). The Catalytic Fund grant will complement the support from other donors to finance

the implementation of the NSDS.

2 The SFR-CF is a global partnership initiative to scale up investments in statistical capacity. The SRF-CF (financed

by the Netherlands and DfID) is managed by the World Bank and provides grants to support countries that commit

to the principles of the Catalytic Fund Charter. Senegal submitted its SRF-CF application in April 2011; the grant

allocation request was approved by in December 2011by the SRF-CF Council.

13

C. Project Cost and Financing

Table 1: Project Costs by Components (US$)

Project ComponentsProject

costGrant Financing % Financing

Component 1: Production of Statistics 1,085,182

1. Price statistics for production of services 111,000

2. Construction costs Statistics 116,591

3. Employment and labor market conditions Statistics. 725,455

4. Tourism satellite account 132,136

Component 2 ENSAE–Senegal & Training 431,818

Component 3: Project coordination, monitoring and

evaluation 383,000

1. User satisfaction survey 129,781

2. Coordination: M&E SFR 201,384

Total Baseline Costs 1,900,000

Physical contingencies 100,000

Price contingencies 100,000

Total Project Costs 2,100,000

Interest During Implementation

Front-End Fees 100,000

Total Financing Required 2,200,000

14

IV. IMPLEMENTATION

A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements

25. The Agence National de la Statistique et de la Démographie (ANSD), which is

responsible for overall NSDS implementation, will be the executing agency of the project. Other entities of the NSS will benefit from the project and are involved in its technical execution.

For example, under component 3, the elaboration of the Tourism Satellite Account will be

carried out jointly by the Ministry of Tourism and Air Transport and the ANSD.

B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation

26. The results framework of the project is part of a coordinated monitoring framework

for the overall NSDS. The overall results indicators focus on user satisfaction with the products

of the project, and the share of women among graduates of the statistics school, ENSAE.

Intermediate results indicators will include: (a) the regular production and dissemination of price

statistics for production of services; (b) the regular production and dissemination of the

Construction Cost Index (CCI); (c) a system to monitor employment conditions and labor market

issues through the implementation of the quarterly Senegal National Employment Surveys

(SNES); (d) a Tourism Satellite Account; and (e) an increase of women enrolled in the ENSAE.

ANSD will regularly monitor the PDO level and intermediate results indicators in accordance

with the results framework specified in Annex 1. The Bank team will pay particular attention to

the public availability of all data collected under the project and will work with ANSD to help

ensure its user-friendly nature.

C. Sustainability

27. The activities financed by the project are part of the NSDS and will become regular

activities for ANSD and ENSAE. They will therefore receive the appropriate funding after the

end of the project. In addition, Senegal is establishing a basket fund for the development of

statistics (Fonds de développement statistique) which will be fed by the national budget and

contributions of development partners. It is expected that this mechanism will allow a more

sustainable, predictable and appropriate funding for statistical activities.

IV. OVERALL RISK RATINGS

28. Overall Preparation Risk is expected to be moderate as the ANSD, the key

implementing agency, is well-established and recognized as the leader in statistical

development. Its capacity and governance should not pose a problem. The only moderate risks

are i) competition from other donor requests; and ii) sustainability. However, the Thematic

Group to finance NSDS implementation has been established and endorsed this project proposal,

and continued monitoring of ANSD through this thematic group should ensure that the project

receives priority attention.

15

Risk Ratings Summary Table

Stakeholder Risk Risk Rating Mitigation measures

Implementing Agency Risk

- Capacity Low - ANSD’s statistical capacity is sufficient

to implement the NSDS: (i) ANSD

benefits from the statistics school

(ENSAE) which trains statisticians at 3

levels, around 20 students every year, and

many of them are hired by ANSD; (ii)

since ANSD is an autonomous agency,

the salary scale offered to staff is

attractive and allows the experienced staff

to stay.

- ANSD’s experience in implementing

large donor projects, including some

funded by the World Bank, has

significantly improved its implementation

capacity.

- Governance Low ANSD is a well-established agency that

has successfully implemented several

large projects.

Project Risk

- Design Low Project activities are fully part of the

NSDS implementation plan and are

included in the work program of ANDS

Units.

- Social and Environmental Low There are no potential social and

environmental safeguard risks triggered

by this project. On the contrary, the

project will help improve understanding

of social and environmental issues.

- Program and Donor Medium Several donors are involved in the

financing of the NSDS but predictability

of the funds is still weak. The key risk is

the degree of priority ANSD will give to

project activities if they are in

competition with others. This concern

may be mitigated by the involvement of

the development partners’ group,

« Thematic Group to finance NSDS

16

implementation », chaired by AfDB and

UNFPA, whose main role is to coordinate

donors’ efforts in supporting Senegal’s

statistical development. This group has

endorsed the SFR-CF request.

- Delivery Monitoring and

Sustainability

Medium Project activities will be implemented by

4 different units within ANSD at different

speeds. A monitoring group including

donors and users of statistics will be

established at ANSD. This kind of group

proved useful in the past, particularly

during the implementation of the last two

household surveys (ESPS II and DHS V).

Overall Implementation Risk Medium

17

V. APPRAISAL SUMMARY

A. Economic and Financial Analyses

29. The economic benefits from the project will derive from better data, especially in

employment, construction, services, tourism and environment, which are expected to result

in better decisions and improved governance and accountability in Senegal. First,

improvements in the efficiency of statistical operations and agencies will result in broader

coverage and higher-quality data. Second, better data will enhance the potential for evidence-

based decision making, at policy, program and project levels. This will reduce the costs of poor

decisions made on the basis of missing or inaccurate data. Third, more accessible data will

promote better monitoring of the results of public policies. The public goods nature of the

program output does not lend itself to conventional economic cost-benefit analysis. The project

is not amenable to financial analysis because national statistical producers have very limited

opportunities to recover the cost of data collection and analysis. National statistics are generally

considered public goods and are generally financed from Government revenue. However,

program outcomes are expected to promote improved allocation of resources by enhancing the

monitoring of the impact of Government spending by providing more accurate information on

economic activity to the public at large.

B. Financial Management

30. The Statistical Agency (ANSD) is the implementing agency of this Grant. An

assessment of the FM capacity of the ANSD was conducted in accordance with the Bank’s

requirements under OP/BP 10.00 and the FM Manual. The financial management risk is

rated as moderate provided that ANSD recruit an accountant for the bookkeeping of financial

transactions and the preparation of interim financial reports. The ANSD is familiar with donors

procedures and is handling similar projects funded by other donors (AFRISTAT, AfDB, ACDI

etc); ANSD has recently implemented the Support to SDS implementation and training project

funded by the World Bank closed on December 31 2013, and the external auditor issued an

unqualified opinion (clear opinion) on the 2012 financial statements. The interim un-audited

financial reports for the closed project have been submitted on time and the quality of the reports

was satisfactory. The existing “multi projects” computerized accounting system will be

customized to fit project needs and generate required information and financial statements.

However, to perform accounting tasks for this project, ANSD needs to recruit a qualified

accountant satisfactory to the Bank, prior to the implementation of activities. With regard to the

internal control, the project will comply with the requirements set out in the FM procedures

manual. The existing manual will be amended to cover all existing internal control improvement

issues such as bank disbursement procedures.

The system will include the following:

a) Recording of all financial transactions, including receipts and expenses, and maintained on a

simple cash book;

b) Recording assets and liabilities;

c) Simple internal control arrangements to ensure that every transaction is duly authorized and

properly recorded, and assets are safeguarded;

18

d) The ability to produce periodic financial information (Interim Financial Report), including

year-to-date and cumulative project fund inflows, expenditures by disbursement category and

by component, and closing cash and bank balances accompanied by a brief description of

deliverables;

e) Appropriate staffing to carry out the above functions.

- Disbursement

Disbursements under the Grant would be transactions based. Direct Payment and SOE

(Statement of Expenditures) methods and special commitments will apply as appropriate.

The designated account (DA) will be located in a commercial Bank. The DA would be managed

by DI (Direction des Investissements), which is an entity of the Ministry of Economy and

Finance in charge of managing the designated accounts in Senegal, in coordination with the

ANSD. The DA will be managed according to the disbursement procedures described in the

Disbursement Letter. The allocation of the DA will cover approximately four months

expenditures. The minimum value of direct payment and special commitment is 20 percent of

outstanding advance made to the DA. The DA would be replenished through the submission of

Withdrawal Applications on a monthly basis and would include bank reconciliation statements

and other documents as may be required. All supporting documentation must be easily accessible

and kept at an appropriate place for control and audit purposes.

- Audit

The Grant Agreement will require the submission of two Audits of Financial Statements for the

project to IDA. An external auditor with qualification and experience satisfactory to the World

Bank will be appointed to conduct audits of the project’s financial statements within six months

after the end of the fiscal year of implementation of the Project and after the Closing Date. A

single opinion on the Audited Project Financial Statements in compliance with International

Federation of Accountant (IFAC) guidelines will be required. The external auditors will prepare

a Management Letter giving observations and comments, and providing recommendations for

improvements in accounting records, systems, controls and compliance with financial covenants

in the grant Agreement.

C. Procurement

31. Senegal’s general procurement context has a major legislation and institutional

framework in place, which includes: (i) Decree N° 2011-1048 of July 27, 2011 related to the

public procurement code: (ii) the decree establishing the regulatory body, Public Procurement

Regulation Agency (PPRA); (iii) the adoption of national standard bidding documents (SBDS),

code of conduct; and (iv) a standard user guide manual. All this documentation is published on

the PPRA website (http://www.marchespublics.sn/). The decree also establishes the supervisory

bodies, a priori and a posteriori, to carry out annual assessments based on a sample. In addition,

many training sessions have been organized on different procurement aspects, such as: (a)

strengthening procurement capacity and addressing deficiencies identified during

implementation; (b) maintaining the program of integrating procurement into the PFM system

and; (c) enforcing data collection and sustainable information dissemination systems.

The draft procurement plan for the first 18 months of the project was carefully reviewed at

appraisal.

19

D. Safeguard Policies

32. No safeguard policies are triggered by this project. The project will have no adverse

impact on the environment, since it will not fund any environmentally sensitive activities, such

as construction activities, which could harm the environment and therefore require mitigation

measures. It is rated ‘C’ for no adverse environmental impact. Indirectly, the project could have

a positive impact on environment through support for generation of environment statistics that

could be used to improve the country’s environmental management.

Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No

Environmental Assessment (OP/BP 4.01) [ ] [X ]

Natural Habitats (OP/BP 4.04) [ ] [X ]

Pest Management (OP 4.09) [ ] [X ]

Indigenous Peoples (OP/BP 4.10) [ ] [ X]

Physical Cultural Resources (OP/BP 4.11) [ ] [X ]

Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) [ ] [ X]

Forests (OP/BP 4.36) [ ] [X ]

Safety of Dams (OP/BP 4.37) [ ] [X ]

Projects on International Waterways (OP/BP 7.50) [ ] [ X]

Projects in Disputed Areas (OP/BP 7.60)* [ ] [ X]

* By supporting the proposed project, the Bank does not intend to prejudice the final determination of the parties'

claims on the disputed areas.

20

Annex 1: Results Framework and Monitoring

SENEGAL: Statistics for Results Project

Project Development Objective (PDO): To better inform public and private sector decision-makers by filling gaps in the statistical knowledge base in the areas of employment,

tourism, construction and services, as identified in the NSDS, as well as build capacity for the production and dissemination of reliable and relevant data.

PDO Level Results Indicators*

Co

re

Unit of

Measure Baseline

Cumulative Target Values** Frequency Data Source/

Methodology

Responsibility

for Data

Collection Description

YR 1 YR 2 YR3

User satisfaction with project

outputs:

Average

% across

4 data sets

ND baseline survey

conducted

75% 80%

Annual

User

satisfaction

survey

ANSD

Share of women graduating

from ENSAE

% 12% 12% 12% 15% Annual ENSAE ENSAE NA

INTERMEDIATE RESULTS

Intermediate Result (Component One): Production of Statistics

Intermediate Result (Sub-component One): Service Production Price Index

Methodology adapted Paper NA Available NA ANSD ANSD NA

Sample of providers and services Data Base NA Available NA ANSD ANSD NA

Service Production Price Index

SPPI Index NA Test Year

Final ESPPI

available Annual ANSD ANSD See AFRISTAT

Intermediate Result (Sub - component Two): Construction Cost statistics

Methodology Paper NA Available NA ANSD ANSD NA

Baselines survey results Data Base NA Available NA ANSD ANSD NA

Construction Cost Index (CCI) Index NA CCI available

(Pilot Year)

Final CCI

available Annual ANSD ANSD See AFRISTAT

Intermediate Result (Sub-component Three): Employment and labor market conditions Statistics

Annual survey (SNES) pilot Data Base NA Conducted NA ANSD ANSD NA

21

PDO Level Results Indicators*

Co

re

Unit of

Measure Baseline

Cumulative Target Values** Frequency Data Source/

Methodology

Responsibility

for Data

Collection Description

YR 1 YR 2 YR3

SNES Pilot Survey data Data Base NA Available Pilot ANSD ANSD NA

Data on employment Data Base

& Index NA

Bi-monthly data

available (Pilot)

Quarterly

data available Quarterly ANSD ANSD NA

Intermediate Result (Sub-component Four): Tourism Satellite Account

Tourism Satellite Account Data base NA Draft version TSA available

TSA included in

National

Accounts

Annual

Ministry of

Tourism and

Air Transport

Ministry of

Tourism and

Air Transport

NA

Intermediate Result (Component two): ENSAE–Senegal & Training ANSD

Students fluent in English (Level

3) NA NA

Laboratory

installed 15% 30% Annual ENSAE ENSAE NA

Number of women statisticians

enrolled in ENSAE Number 12% 12% 15% 18% Annual ENSAE ENSAE NA

Number of trainers trained Number NA 5 5 5 Annual ENSAE ENSAE NA

22

Annex 2: Risk Assessment and Mitigation Measures

Risk Risk Mitigating Measures Incorporated into

Project Design

Residual

Risk/

(Risk)

rating

Inherent risk M

Country level

Country: Poor governance

PFM system is weakened mainly by

(i) extra-budgetary operations; (ii)

weak oversight of public sector

entities and agencies; (iii)

difficulties in the interfacing

between or integrating the various

financial management information

systems, i.e. Revenues (GAINDE

for Customs, SIGTAS for Tax),

Expenditures (SGFIP), and

Accounting (ASTER)

Remedial measures are being taken to address

the weaknesses of the budget execution

procedures, accounting system, and internal and

external controls through the ongoing PFM TA.

The law on the autonomous agencies adopted in

2009 triggered several initiatives to improve the

financial oversight and transparency of the

agencies.

S

Entity level

Mismanagement of project assets

and deviations in the use of funds

M

Project level

L

Control Risk M

Budgeting The Grant activities are defined with a detailed

budget table. The project will prepare quarterly

budget variances reports and explain the

deviations.

M

Accounting

Accounting arrangements may not

be adequate for the project

execution.

The existing “multi projects” accounting

software will be customized to generate useful

financial information.

A qualified accountant will be recruited to

handle the project accounting tasks

S

23

Internal Controls

Weak internal audit

The existing manual of procedures defines

clearly FM procedures.

The FM manual will be up dated to take into

account disbursement procedures.

M

Flow of Funds

Funds may be diverted or used for

non-project eligible purposes.

A Designated Account into which funds will be

deposited will be opened. Monthly

replenishment will be required accompanied by

the relevant supporting documents.

Incompatible duties will be appropriately

segregated to ensure adequate internal controls.

M

Financial Reporting and Monitoring

Delays in the submission of agreed

IFRs and annual project financial

statements

Appropriate format for Interim Financial

Reports will be designed.

M

External Auditing

Delay in the submission of annual

audited financial statements.

Recruitment of qualified, experienced and

independent external auditors.

M

H – High S - Substantial M – Moderate L – Low

24

Annex 3: Detailed Project Description

1. The project supports the Government of Senegal’s (GoS) National Strategy for

Development of Statistics (NSDS), which was elaborated for the 2008-2013 period and approved

by the Government in June 2007. Project design is based on the NSDS Action Plan which was

developed in close consultation with development partners and validated in March 2011 by the

National Statistics Council (NSC), the highest level of coordination body of the SNS.

2. The current NSDS is based on four program areas: (1) strengthening the institutional

structure of the NSS; (2) improvement of the quality of statistical products; (3) improvement in

the dissemination of statistics and promotion of their use; and (4) capacity building to ensure the

efficiency of the SNS.

Project components

3. The project has three components. The selection of the components was made taking into

account the priorities of the National Strategy for Economic and Social Development (SNDES)

and of the NSDS. They are in conformity with the Government’s NSDS, and are designed to

support the implementation of the four NSDS programs, in particular the production and

dissemination of reliable and relevant data.

Component 1 –Production of Statistics

4. Services Production Price Index: This first sub-component will support a number of

activities to support the measurement of industrial production prices index. In Senegal, the

service sector is the main job and income provider, representing more than half of gross domestic

product (GDP). However, these aggregates are not adequately measured, despite their

importance in the economy. Apart from prices collected in the Consumption Price Index, there is

no other way of collecting prices of services at the production level. The Service Production

Price Index (SPPI) is designed to track price movements that reflect the conditions of supply and

demand in markets for services, and to facilitate the analysis of macroeconomic conditions and

monitoring of inflationary pressures. It is also a main input to the elaboration of the national

accounts. AFRISTAT has already developed a methodology to develop this index and Senegal

is working to adapt and implement it.

5. The following activities will be implemented in order to elaborate the production of this

indicator:

Elaboration of a methodology adhering to international standards and customized to the

national context, based on NAEMA (Nomenclature des Activités des Etats Membres

d’AFRISTAT), to identify services and service providers that will be subject to the price

collection index.

Study trip to a country already producing the SPPI to build capacity of experts in charge

of the production of the index.

Baseline survey to define the weighting structure of the SPPI and the selection of the

service producers who will constitute the sampling.

One year test period to improve the effectiveness of the process.

25

6. The expected results are:

The availability of a methodology in conformity with international standards and

customized to the national context for the elaboration of the ESSPI.

The availability of a sample of services and providers.

The implementation of an effective ESPPI production mechanism at the end of a one year

test period.

7. Construction Costs Statistics: This second sub-component will support the

implementation of a Construction Costs Index (CCI). In Senegal, the construction sector

represented about 3.9% of the GDP in 2010. The production of construction price statistics is

mainly limited to the collection and production of price statistics of specific construction

materials. However, total construction costs include the price of materials, labor costs and other

charges, such as taxes. In order to offset this deficiency, AFRISTAT has developed a guide for

the elaboration of the Construction Costs Index. ANSD is now working to adapt this

methodology. The CCI concerns mainly the construction of houses, but it can be adapted to other

Buildings and Public Works. The implementation of major construction of housing and

infrastructure programs highlights the urgent need for monitoring indicators of construction costs

so as to track allocation mechanisms and price revisions of public and private markets. These

indicators are also useful to define a housing and social infrastructure policy.

8. The following activities will be carried out to elaborate the production of the CCI:

Identification and description of all construction products.

Baseline survey to elaborate the weighting structure of several indexes (labor costs,

construction material prices, construction management costs), and to define a sampling of

products, producers and sellers.

Implementation of an effective CCI production mechanism after a one year test period.

9. Employment and labor market conditions Statistics: This third sub-component will

support the production of statistics on employment and labor market conditions, essential

information for assessing the impact of policies, projects, development programs and poverty

reduction included in the SNDES. To understand this poorly documented and multidimensional

reality, it appears crucial to examine the monitoring of employment conditions, living conditions

and disparities between demographic groups, so as to design employment policies addressing

these issues and fight against poverty. This need is accompanied by a growing demand for

standardized statistical indicators to ensure comparability among countries. For this reason, the

NSDS includes a multiyear action plan (2012-2014) for the implementation of Senegal National

Employment Surveys (SNES) to address this demand.

10. The main objective of this action plan is to put in place a measuring and monitoring

mechanism on employment in Senegal, through several SNES in order to establish a quarterly

monitoring system. The specific objectives are to:

measure unemployment and employment by identifying the most important sectors with

job creation activities;

26

analyze the labor market structure and the functioning of the labor market at large;

identify the demographic, educational and occupational qualifications of the labor force;

estimate informal sector employment statistics.

11. The SNES will be carried out at the national level. However, a bi-annual pilot survey will

be conducted first in Dakar. Household members older than 10-years old in the sampling

households will be surveyed. A first survey will be conducted during the first year of

implementation of the action plan. It will be the baseline survey for the monitoring process. Then

after the evaluation of the first survey, two bi-annual surveys will be carried out during the

second year, followed by four quarterly surveys the third year.

12. During the first year, the SNES will be combined with the Enquête sur la Transition vers

la Vie Active (ETVA) (Transition to Working Life Survey) of the International Labour

Organization (ILO). This survey will be called Enquête Nationale sur l’Emploi et la Transition

vers la Vie Active (ENETVA). It will be based on a sampling of 1800 households. During the

second year, the sampling will be reduced to 1200 households. These households will be derived

from the enumeration districts (ED), with 12 households per ED (18 for the first year). The

sampling will include three layers: Dakar, other cities and rural areas.

13. Tourism Satellite Account; This component will provide support to one sector to

improve their statistical development strategy and action plan that was recorded in the NSDS.

The selected sector, approved by the Technical Committee for Statistical Programs (TCSP), is

Tourism. Tourism is a key sector of the economy in Senegal and a multi-sector activity. It is a

social, cultural and economic phenomenon. The relationship of tourism with a great variety of

economic activities has fostered the interest in measuring its economic contribution, and in

assessing its interdependence with other social and economic activities. As a consequence,

Senegal included in its NSDS the elaboration of a Tourism Satellite Account (TSA).

14. The main objectives of the TSA are to analyze in detail all the aspects of demand for

goods and services associated with the activity of visitors; to observe the operational interface

with the supply of such goods and services within the economy; and to describe how this supply

interacts with other economic activities. The methodology used to the construction of the TSA

will include surveys on tourism demand, tourism supply and tourism expenditures. It should

permit greater internal consistency of tourism statistics with the rest of the National Statistical

System, as well as increased international comparability of these data.

15. The elaboration of the TSA will be carried out by the Ministry of Tourism and Air

Transport and the ANSD, in partnership with the Permanent Secretariat for the Accelerated

Growth Strategy, the Department for Forecasting and Economic Studies of the Ministry of

Economy and Finance, professional organizations and the West African States Central Bank. All

these structures will be grouped under the umbrella of a pilot and technical Committee that will

supervise the activities and validate the results.

27

Component 2 – ENSAE – Senegal and Training

16. This component will support the implementation of the strategic plan of the National

School of Statistics and Economic Analysis (ENSAE-Senegal). ENSEA-Senegal is a new

institution and is still under development. It was created in October 2008 and progressively

implemented its training programs, including basic and professional training. The release of its

first graduates was in July 2011. The school works in partnership with the ENSEA in Abidjan

and the ISSEA in Yaoundé, in the network of the African Statistics Schools. The main mission of

ENSAE-Senegal is to meet the demand for training, development and innovation by the national

statistical system and public and private companies. To achieve this, ENSAE-Senegal is in the

process of elaborating a strategic plan that will determine the major policies for its future

development, including development strategies for a five year period (2012 – 2016). The

development and implementation of this strategic plan is a priority for ENSAE –Senegal.

17. The strategic plan includes activities grouped in three different sub-components:

acquisition of equipment and educational investments (65%), capacity building of ENSAE staff

(28%); and studies (7%).

18. The first sub-component includes educational investments, such as English language

laboratory, books, internet publications and software. These educational tools will contribute to

the strengthening of the level of training courses. It will also provide a laptop to each female

student upon her registration, in order to promote the enrollment of women, and therefore, to

increase the number of women statisticians. It also includes communication tools to improve the

dissemination of ENSAE’s activities. The component will further support the acquisition of the

following equipment needed for the new location of the school (in the new ANSD building):

class and office furniture, IT equipment, reproduction equipment and one minibus.

19. Activities to be carried out in the second sub-component will include:

Study and research trips, as well as training of ENSAE staff, in order to strengthen

the capacity of the teachers and researchers of the school.

Workshop of the African Statistics Schools to reinforce their network and to ensure

high visibility of the schools’ graduates.

Teaching missions by foreign teachers to promote knowledge exchange and new

partnerships to ensure sustainability of these activities.

20. The third sub-component will support two consultancies: the first one to carry out a study

on the creation of a research unit at ENSAE and the second to computerize the school library

collection and create a web-based library.

Component 3 – Project coordination and monitoring and evaluation:

21. With the adoption of the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (SDS),

Senegal shifted its approach of developing statistics from a supply-driven to a demand-driven

management; it needs a tool to monitor the demand and feedbacks from users. The project will

develop methodologies to establish a permanent mechanism to measure the evolution of the

demand of statistics through an annual user satisfaction survey. The following activities will be

implemented in order to calculate the user satisfaction indicator:

28

Elaboration of a complete list of users of statistics by category of users;

Elaboration of a methodology adhering to international standards and customized to the

national context,

Baseline survey to identified new areas of improvement.

Specific questions related to the products of this project.