world bio congress capital cost estimating propp.pdfworld bio congress capital cost estimating ......
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: World Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating Propp.pdfWorld Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating ... AACE Guidelines Class 1: check estimate or bid/tender ... associated with each cost](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020108/5ae4f2cd7f8b9a495c8f3889/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Engineering | Architecture | Design-Build | Surveying | GeoSpatial Solutions
World Bio Congress
Capital Cost Estimating
Presented By:
Dr. Alan Propp, P.E.
07/21/15
![Page 2: World Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating Propp.pdfWorld Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating ... AACE Guidelines Class 1: check estimate or bid/tender ... associated with each cost](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020108/5ae4f2cd7f8b9a495c8f3889/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Merrick Fast Facts
Headquartered in Greenwood Village, CO
International engineering, architecture, design-build, surveying & geospatial solutions firm
Founded in 1955
Employee owned; $120 Million
16 offices (12 in US; 2 in Mexico; 1 in Canada, 1 in the U.K.)
55+ LEED Accredited Professionals
![Page 3: World Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating Propp.pdfWorld Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating ... AACE Guidelines Class 1: check estimate or bid/tender ... associated with each cost](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020108/5ae4f2cd7f8b9a495c8f3889/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Overview
Good capital expenditure (Capex) estimates are crucial
100% of our clients underestimate the capex of their projects.
Capex estimating requires engineering
Merrick adheres to the approach of the Association for the Advancement of Cost Estimating (AACE)
![Page 4: World Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating Propp.pdfWorld Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating ... AACE Guidelines Class 1: check estimate or bid/tender ... associated with each cost](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020108/5ae4f2cd7f8b9a495c8f3889/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
AACE Guidelines
AACE categorizes capex estimates into five classes, 5 through 1, from lowest to highest fidelity
Class 5: concept screening
Level of project definition: 0- 2%
Methodology: Capacity factored, parametric models, judgement or analogy
Degree of accuracy: - 30 to +100%
![Page 5: World Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating Propp.pdfWorld Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating ... AACE Guidelines Class 1: check estimate or bid/tender ... associated with each cost](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020108/5ae4f2cd7f8b9a495c8f3889/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
AACE Guidelines
Class 4: study or feasibility
Level of project definition: 1-15% (FEL 2)
Methodology: Aspen Capital Cost Estimator
Degree of accuracy: -30 to +50%
![Page 6: World Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating Propp.pdfWorld Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating ... AACE Guidelines Class 1: check estimate or bid/tender ... associated with each cost](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020108/5ae4f2cd7f8b9a495c8f3889/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
AACE Guidelines
Class 3: budget authorization
Level of project definition: 10-40% (FEL 3)
Methodology: Preliminary unit costs and line diagrams
Degree of accuracy: -20 to +30%
![Page 7: World Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating Propp.pdfWorld Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating ... AACE Guidelines Class 1: check estimate or bid/tender ... associated with each cost](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020108/5ae4f2cd7f8b9a495c8f3889/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
AACE Guidelines
Class 2: control or bid/tender
Level of project definition: 30-70% (FEL 3+)
Methodology: Detailed unit costs and forced detailed take offs.
Degree of accuracy: -15 to +20%
![Page 8: World Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating Propp.pdfWorld Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating ... AACE Guidelines Class 1: check estimate or bid/tender ... associated with each cost](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020108/5ae4f2cd7f8b9a495c8f3889/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
AACE Guidelines
Class 1: check estimate or bid/tender
Level of project definition: 30-70% (detailed design)
Methodology: Detailed unit costs and forced detailed take offs.
Degree of accuracy: -10 to +15%
AACE guidelines have engineering deliverables list associated with each cost estimate class.
![Page 9: World Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating Propp.pdfWorld Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating ... AACE Guidelines Class 1: check estimate or bid/tender ... associated with each cost](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020108/5ae4f2cd7f8b9a495c8f3889/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Rules of Thumb
Estimate equipment costs, then multiply by 3 to 5 to get the total installed cost (TIC)
Can get a rough idea of scale up cost using the following formula:
X = Y*(x/y).6
Where: X is the scaled capital cost
Y is known capital cost
x is the new plant capacity
y is the known plant capacity
![Page 10: World Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating Propp.pdfWorld Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating ... AACE Guidelines Class 1: check estimate or bid/tender ... associated with each cost](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020108/5ae4f2cd7f8b9a495c8f3889/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Example
X = Y*(x/y).6
Where: X is the scaled capital cost
Y is $20 million
x is 25 million gallons per year
y is 1 million gallons per year
X = $20 million*(25/1).6 = $138 million
![Page 11: World Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating Propp.pdfWorld Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating ... AACE Guidelines Class 1: check estimate or bid/tender ... associated with each cost](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020108/5ae4f2cd7f8b9a495c8f3889/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Aspen Capital Cost Estimator
Merrick employs Aspen CCE to quickly and inexpensively arrive at Class 4 estimates.
Aspen CCE is usually used based on an Aspen process model, but can be used without one.
It is very comprehensive and is updated once per year.
![Page 12: World Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating Propp.pdfWorld Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating ... AACE Guidelines Class 1: check estimate or bid/tender ... associated with each cost](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020108/5ae4f2cd7f8b9a495c8f3889/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Each Equipment Item has a Default P&ID
![Page 13: World Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating Propp.pdfWorld Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating ... AACE Guidelines Class 1: check estimate or bid/tender ... associated with each cost](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020108/5ae4f2cd7f8b9a495c8f3889/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Example Reactor
![Page 14: World Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating Propp.pdfWorld Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating ... AACE Guidelines Class 1: check estimate or bid/tender ... associated with each cost](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020108/5ae4f2cd7f8b9a495c8f3889/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Plant Bulk Components
Utility headers/stations
Additional pipe racks
Firewater system
Additional Electrical/
Instrumentation Bulks
Ladders/Platforms
Perimeter lighting
Security Systems
Alarm Systems
Steel Structures
![Page 15: World Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating Propp.pdfWorld Bio Congress Capital Cost Estimating ... AACE Guidelines Class 1: check estimate or bid/tender ... associated with each cost](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022020108/5ae4f2cd7f8b9a495c8f3889/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Thank You
Contact info:
Dr. Alan Propp, P.E.
Merrick & Company
720-346-4882