If the Match France versus Uruguay is a Draw and if Mexico wins versus South Africa,

and if .......

and if ....Then France can be Qualified for Stage 2

Those Endless Scenarios are Over

Enter your prediction in terms of Probabilities on the matches‘ results

“In my opinion, there is a 60% chance that the match Uruguay vs France ends with a Draw, 25% that France wins, and

then, 15% that Uruguay wins”

BAYESIA will handle your predictions and will give you the exact Team qualification probabilities

A Tool to Compute the Qualification Probabilities for

Fifa World Cup Stage 2

Click here to select the Group you want to evaluate. The selected

group appears in redThe first match of France

is against Uruguay, on June 11

The Sliders allow entering the probabilities of each result.

Here, we assess a 60% chance for Draw

As probabilities have to sum up to 100, increasing the Draw’s probability automatically

reduces the probabilities of France and Uruguay to win the match

Checking this box allows fixing the Draw’s probability

It is then possible to enter the probability that France (or Uruguay) wins without modifying

the probability associated to Draw. We define here a 25% chance that France wins

The screenshot below describes the probability we assessed for the Group A’ Matches

In our assessments, the lowest probability is 5%, the probability

corresponding to a Draw for South Africa vs Mexico

If we imagine 100 matches exactly played in the same conditions, we then belief that only 5 will end as a Draw, 60 will be a

Mexican win, and 35 a South African win

We then belief that a Draw is very unlikely, without fully excluding it

Once satisfied with your assessments, you just have to click on Validation to execute the Qualification Probabilities Computation

This Chart depicts the exact results of the Computation of the Qualification Probabilities based on the Matches Probabilities you have previously entered

With our assessments, we get a 77% chance that France will be qualified

for Stage 2, 45% for Uruguay, 44% for Mexico and 34% for South Africa

We wish you pleasant simulations ...

and a great World Cup

http://worldcup.bayesialab.com