world meteorological organization (wmo) severe weather forecasting and disaster risk reduction...
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World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Severe Weather Forecasting and Disaster risk reduction Demonstration Project (SWFDDP)
REGIONAL SUBPROJECT RA V
Steve Ready
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South Pacific ‘Window’
Solomon Islands
SamoaVanuatu
Fiji
150OE to 150OW, 2ON to 25(30)OS
Tonga
Niue Cook Islands
Tuvalu
Kiribati
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South Pacific window
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South Pacific Guidance chart produced by RSMC Wellington
Before YasiWas named!
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UKMO page on MetConnect Pacific
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UKMO
TC data Ensemble tracks Strike probabilities Deterministic v Ensemble mean
TC (and non-TC)Tracks- static image
TC Animated – strike probabilities: TC passing within 300km
TC Genesis probabilities – 10x10° (bar graphs)
TC probabilities – 10x10° (bar graphs)
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Southerly swellPeak around 3m15s
Christmas Island(Just north of Equatornear 158⁰West)
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ECMWF – tropical cyclone data
Lagrangian Meteogram - EPS 7°x 7° box centred on TC Strike probability map - 120km radius Cyclone observed track Deterministic forecast verification
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Strike probability for Wilma
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ECMWF on TC Wilma
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NCEP
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RSMC Darwin
ACCESS-TC and vortexTracking available by 2011/2012 cyclone season
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South Pacific Guidance chart during TC Wilma Jan 2011
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Links between SWFDDP and GIFS-TIGGE
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Links between SWFDDP and GIFS-TIGGE
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Issues for SWFDDP
• Poor internet connectivity - low internet bandwidth, downloading quota
• Lack of qualified WMO meteorologists in South Pacific
• Dependency - 5 of 9 participating countries in SWFDDP rely on RSMC for some or all their forecasting & warning requirements
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Snowman around Wellington on 14-16 August 2011