World population, 1900-2000: World population, 1900-2000: poor share of total increased from 66% to 80%poor share of total increased from 66% to 80%rich population doubled; poor almost fivefoldrich population doubled; poor almost fivefold

IraqIraq 5.2 5.2

23.6 23.6

Afghanistan 5.0 (1900) 27.8 (2000)Afghanistan 5.0 (1900) 27.8 (2000)

Demographic transitions compared, rich vs. poor Demographic transitions compared, rich vs. poor countries: annual growth rates, 1700-2000countries: annual growth rates, 1700-2000

Relation between TFR and eRelation between TFR and e00 25 less developed countries, 1950-55: 25 less developed countries, 1950-55:

great diversity great diversity Iraq, tfr= 7.2; e0=43Iraq, tfr= 7.2; e0=43

Afghanistan tfr=6.7; e0=31Afghanistan tfr=6.7; e0=31

Relation between TFR and eRelation between TFR and e00 25 LARGE less developed, 1995-25 LARGE less developed, 1995-2000: transition well advanced 2000: transition well advanced

Iraq, tfr= 5.4; e0=58Iraq, tfr= 5.4; e0=58Afghanistan tfr=6.0; e0=45Afghanistan tfr=6.0; e0=45

Strong inverse correlation between Strong inverse correlation between sewage system and 0-4 mortality in 55 sewage system and 0-4 mortality in 55

poor countries, 1980spoor countries, 1980s

Per capita GDP and ePer capita GDP and e00 in 25 less in 25 less developed countries, 1995-2000: big developed countries, 1995-2000: big increases at moderate levels of GDPincreases at moderate levels of GDP

DDT eradication halved the crude death rate DDT eradication halved the crude death rate in malarial zones of in malarial zones of Sri Lanka, 1930-1960Sri Lanka, 1930-1960

Burden of premature death and disease by Burden of premature death and disease by world region, 1998: inequalities are large world region, 1998: inequalities are large

and larger yet between continentsand larger yet between continents

Contraception was major factor in reducing Contraception was major factor in reducing fertility from natural levels, 31 countriesfertility from natural levels, 31 countries

Per capita GDP and TFR, 25 less developed Per capita GDP and TFR, 25 less developed countries, 1995-2000—weak correlationcountries, 1995-2000—weak correlation

Literacy and TFR, 25 less developed Literacy and TFR, 25 less developed countries, 1980s—strong correlationcountries, 1980s—strong correlation

Iraq, tfr= 5.4; illit: 30%Iraq, tfr= 5.4; illit: 30%

Afghanistan tfr=6.0;Afghanistan tfr=6.0; illit=70% illit=70%

Fertility of married Mexican women Fertility of married Mexican women by educational levels compared with by educational levels compared with

natural fertility, 1990natural fertility, 1990

The educational revolution will The educational revolution will precipitate further declines in precipitate further declines in Mexican fertility rates (1990)Mexican fertility rates (1990)

None

Primary

Secondary

Post

Decline in TFR by level of development and Decline in TFR by level of development and family planning, 1982-90: both requiredfamily planning, 1982-90: both required

Test Test of of unmet unmet need need thesisthesis

““Wanted” TFR vs. actual TFR, by region, Wanted” TFR vs. actual TFR, by region, late 1980s-early 1990slate 1980s-early 1990s

““Unwanted” children (%) vs. actual TFR, by Unwanted” children (%) vs. actual TFR, by region, late 1980s-early 1990sregion, late 1980s-early 1990s

No correlationNo correlation

% current contraceptors is strongly % current contraceptors is strongly correlated with actual TFR, in all regions correlated with actual TFR, in all regions

(late 1980s-early 1990s)(late 1980s-early 1990s)

% current contraceptors and “wanted” % current contraceptors and “wanted” fertility: also strongly correlated, in all fertility: also strongly correlated, in all

regions (late 1980s-early 1990s)regions (late 1980s-early 1990s)

Availability of contraception is not enough:Availability of contraception is not enough:% current contraceptors is not strongly % current contraceptors is not strongly

correlated with unwanted children, in all correlated with unwanted children, in all regions (late 1980s-early 1990s)regions (late 1980s-early 1990s)

China, age structure: 1950 & 2025China, age structure: 1950 & 2025the effects of fertility declinethe effects of fertility decline

India, age structure: 1950 & 2025India, age structure: 1950 & 2025the effects of partial fertility declinethe effects of partial fertility decline

Increase in population and per capita GNP:Increase in population and per capita GNP:27 less developed countries, 1970-9227 less developed countries, 1970-92

Increase in population 1950-70 & GNP pc:Increase in population 1950-70 & GNP pc:27 less developed countries, 1970-9227 less developed countries, 1970-92

Increase in population and per capita GNP:Increase in population and per capita GNP:27 less developed countries, 1950-9227 less developed countries, 1950-92

Asia: the boom in labor force growth is over: Asia: the boom in labor force growth is over: much GREATER 1965-95 than for coming much GREATER 1965-95 than for coming

30 years, except for Muslim countries30 years, except for Muslim countries

Increase in labor force, 1995-2025/1965-1995: Increase in labor force, 1995-2025/1965-1995: Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa, the boom is underway: Sub-Saharan Africa, the boom is underway: much GREATER IN COMING 30 years than much GREATER IN COMING 30 years than

for 1965-95for 1965-95

Gross investment and working age Gross investment and working age population selected countriespopulation selected countries

Malawi: rapid fertility decline (from 7.6 in Malawi: rapid fertility decline (from 7.6 in 1980 to 4.0) reduces schooling costs 50% by 1980 to 4.0) reduces schooling costs 50% by 2015—over modest fertility decline (tfr=5.5)2015—over modest fertility decline (tfr=5.5)

2005, tfr= 6.52005, tfr= 6.5