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World Vaccines Market 2008-2013: Future

Forecast, Critical Trends and Developments

Publisher: Renub Research Published: April, 2009

Sample of World Vaccines Market 2008-2013: Future Forecast, Critical Trends and Developments

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Report Details

World Vaccines Market 2008-2013: Future Forecast, Critical Trends and Developments

published by Renub Research talks about the world vaccine market. This report gives the

past, present scenario on the vaccines market and also forecast on future of vaccines market.

Such as market size of Hepatitis B vaccines, Pneumococcal vaccines, Cervical Cancer vaccines

etc. are there in the report. Forecast for the future market size of vaccine for diseases like

Malaria, Ebola, Tuberculosis (TB), Japanese Encephalitis, West Nile, Typhoid etc. which are

yet to be launched in the market have also been included in the report. The report also

forecast on the sales of the key vaccines brands like Gardasil, Fluzone/Vaxigrip/Mutagrip,

Prevnar, RotaTeq, Rotarix etc. Major companies’ vaccines sales data for the year 2007 and

2008 are also there in the report.

Market Overview

The vaccines landscape is very different now as compared to few years back. With increasing

public awareness about preventive healthcare and increased spending by governments for the

same has once again put spotlight on the vaccines. Quality of life is expected to increase

markedly with introduction of newer vaccines covering more and more diseases. Due to this

vaccines, which were perceived as low margin business before, have now emerged as one of

the most lucrative segments in the pharmaceutical industry. Moreover with the success of a

number of blockbuster products, the market place has changed dramatically. Pharma major’s

today look upon vaccines as a driver for their future growth.

Already vaccines have become big business for pharmaceutical giants like GlaxoSmithKline,

sanofi pasteur and Merck & Co.. For e.g. GSK Bio, GSK's vaccines arm, accounted for 8.4

percent of GSK's pharmaceutical turnover in 2006. And it is expected that by 2012 companies

like GSK, Sanofi-aventis, Merck & Co., and Wyeth vaccines arm will fetch them more than 10

percent of sales from vaccine as a percentage of overall pharma sales.

Sector wise basic pediatrics share is declining as most of the vaccines in this sector are either

off patent or newer and more effective vaccines have replaced them. Proprietary pediatrics

and cancer pediatrics will define the future growth going forward. Vaccines like Prevnar



(Pneumococcal vaccines), Gardasil (Cervical cancer vaccines) have crossed the sales of US$ 1

Billion by 2007. In fact Prevnar became the first vaccine to cross the US$ 2 Billion annual sales

in 2007.

With the growth in international travel vaccine market of adult/travel sector is also going to

grow further. Malaria vaccines, Typhoid Vaccines and Japanese Encephalitis Vaccines are

expected to grow further in the market. Malaria vaccine which is expected to launch in 2010

or 2011, is forecasted to be worth US$ 419 Million market by 2025. Typhoid vaccine market

for travelers is expected to grow with a CAGR of 4 percent from 2003 to 2014.

Ongoing spate of mergers and accquisition in pharma sector its effect and causes on the

overall industry. Such as Pfizer taking over Wyeth would cement Pfizer’s position as the

world’s leading drugmaker. Geographic segment wise China and India vaccine market will

grow considerably in future and Japanese vaccine market has also started to open up further

from regulatory and political barriers. Overall the worldwide vaccine market has registered

revenue of US$ 21 Billion in 2008.

Report Forecast

Worldwide Vaccine Market

Influenza Market

Adult/Travel Market

Proprietary Pediatrics/Adolescent Market

Enhanced Pediatrics Market

Basic Pediatrics Market

Major Vaccines Market (For complete list see heading no. 4 below in table of contents)

Major Geographic Vaccine Markets

Sales Forecast for Key Vaccine Brands (Cervarix, RotaTeq, Flu, Zostavax, ProQuad,

Infanrix (DTP), Menactra, Rotarix, Gardasil, Prevnar, Fluzone/Vaxigrip/Mutagrip, 13-

Valent Pneumococcal, Synflorix, Imvamune, H5N1 Influenza Vaccine, Hepatitis B

vaccine).



Research Highlights

M&A by big pharma like Pfizer and Merck and its effect in terms of consolidation in

pharma industry.

Collectively Europe & Asia Pacific accounts for the 60 percent of the Hepatitis B

vaccine market.

Public market share of malaria vaccine revenue increases from 43 percent in 2015 to

77 percent in 2025.

Japanese encephalitis vaccine market is expected to cross the figure of US$ 400 Million

by 2012.

By 2015 it is expected that Cervical Cancer patients will be 320 Thousand worldwide.

India and China vaccine market is expected to grow with a CAGR of 16 and 17.8

percent respectively from 2006 to 2013.

Vaccines like Infanrix (DTP) of GSK and Flu vaccine of sanofi pasteur will have a

market of more than US$ 1 Billion by 2010.

Despite global slowdown vaccine sale of all major companies such as Merck, GSK,

Sanofi Aventis has been increased in 2008 compared to 2007.

14 different vaccines have been analyzed in the report (for details refer heading no. 4

below in table of contents).

Data Sources

The information and data in this report has been collected from various printable and non-

pintable sources like Magazines, Newspapers, Trade Journals, White papers, Online paid

databases, News websites Government Agencies and Trade associations.



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Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Vaccines Market - Why is it so Attractive

2.1 Big Pharma Upping Their Commitment to Vaccines

2.2 Vaccine 'Outsiders' Jumping Onto Bandwagon (Acquisitions by Big Pharma Players)

2.3 Several New Vaccines, Many with Blockbuster Potential

3. Worldwide Vaccine Market

3.1 By Sector – Vaccine Market

3.1.1 Influenza

3.1.2 Adult/Travel

3.1.3 Proprietary Pediatrics/Adolescent

3.1.4 Enhanced Pediatrics

3.1.5 Basic Pediatrics

4. Major Vaccine Cases, Market Sizes & Future Forecast

4.1 Pneumococcal Vaccines

4.1.1 Market Size of Pneumococcal Vaccines & Future Forecast

4.2 Polio Vaccines

4.2.1 Number of Polio Cases (in 42 Countries)

4.2.2 Market Size of Polio Vaccines & Future Forecast

4.3 Meningitis Vaccines

4.3.1 Number of Meningitis Cases

4.3.2 Market Size of Meningitis Vaccines & Future Forecast

4.4 Rotavirus Vaccines

4.4.1 Number of Rotavirus Cases (in 27 Countries)

4.4.2 Market Size of Rotavirus Vaccines & Future Forecast

4.5 Tuberculosis (TB) Vaccines

4.5.1 Number of Tuberculosis Cases

4.5.2 Market Size of Tuberculosis Vaccines & Future Forecast

4.6 Measles, Mumps & Rubella (MMR) Vaccines

4.6.1 Number of Measles, Mumps & Rubella Cases

4.7 DTP Vaccines

4.7.1 Number of Diphtheria, Pertussis and Tetanus Cases

4.7.2 Market Size of DTP Vaccines



4.8 Hepatitis B Vaccines

4.8.1 Percent of Hepatitis B Vaccine Immunization

4.8.2 Market Size of Hepatitis B Vaccines & Future Forecast

4.9 Malaria Vaccines

4.9.1 Number of Malaria Cases

4.9.2 Market Size of Malaria Vaccines Market Future Forecast

4.10 Japanese Encephalitis Vaccines

4.10.1 Number of Japanese Encephalitis Cases

4.10.2 Market Size of Japanese Encephalitis Vaccines & Future Forecast

4.11 West Nile Vaccines

4.11.1 Number of West Nile Cases

4.11.2 Market Size of West Nile Vaccines & Future Forecast

4.12 Ebola Vaccines

4.12.1 Number of Ebola Cases

4.12.2 Market Size of Ebola Vaccines & Future Forecast

4.13 Cervical Cancer Vaccines

4.13.1 Number of Cancer & Cervical Cancer Cases

4.13.2 Market Size of Cervical Cancer Vaccines & Future Forecast

4.14 Typhoid Vaccines

4.14.1 Number of Typhoid Cases

4.14.2 Market Size of Typhoid Vaccines & Future Forecast

5. Major Geographic Markets

5.1 India Vaccine Market

5.2 China Vaccine Market

5.3 Japan Vaccine Market

5.4 US Vaccine Market

6. Competitive Landscape

6.1 Worldwide – 5 Major Companies Forecast of Vaccine Sales as Percentage of Overall

Pharma Sales

6.2 Worldwide – Sales Forecast for Key Vaccine Brands

6.3 Global Economic Crisis - Increase in Vaccine Sales



List of Figures:

Figure 2-1: Worldwide – Vaccines: GSK, Merck & Co., Novartis & Sanofi-aventis - Sales as a Percentage

of Overall Pharma Sales (in Percent), 2006

Figure 3-1: Worldwide – Vaccine Market (in Billion US$), 2007 - 2013

Figure 3-2: Worldwide – Influenza Vaccine Market (in Million US$), 2004 – 2008

Figure 3-3: Worldwide – Forecast for Influenza Vaccine Market (in Million US$), 2009 – 2013

Figure 3-4: Worldwide – Adult/Travel Vaccine Market (in Million US$), 2004 – 2008

Figure 3-5: Worldwide – Forecast for Adult/Travel Vaccine Market (in Million US$), 2009 – 2013

Figure 3-6: Worldwide - Proprietary Pediatrics/Adolescent Vaccine Market (in Million US$), 2004 – 2008

Figure 3-7: Worldwide - Forecast for Proprietary Pediatrics/Adolescent Vaccine Market (in Million US$),

2009 – 2013

Figure 3-8: Worldwide - Enhanced Pediatrics Vaccine Market (in Million US$), 2004 – 2008

Figure 3-9: Worldwide - Forecast for Enhanced Pediatrics Vaccine Market (in Million US$), 2009 – 2013

Figure 3-10: Worldwide - Basic Pediatrics Vaccine Market (in Million US$), 2004 – 2008

Figure 3-11: Worldwide - Forecast for Basic Pediatrics Vaccine Market (in Million US$), 2009 – 2013

Figure 4-1: Worldwide - Pneumococcal Vaccine Pipeline

Figure 4-2: Worldwide - Pneumococcal Vaccine Market (in Billion US$), 2004 - 2007 & 2018F

Figure 4-3: Worldwide – Forecast for Global Funds for Immunization in Pneumococcal Vaccine Market (in

Billion US$ & Percent), 2018

Figure 4-4: Worldwide - Number of Polio Virus Cases, 2000 – March 2009

Figure 4-5: Worldwide - Polio Vaccine Market (in Million US$), 2004 & 2011F

Figure 4-6: Africa – Number of Meningitis Cases (in Number), 2001 – 2007

Figure 4-7: Worldwide - Meningitis Vaccine Market (in Billion US$), 2004 & 2010F

Figure 4-8: Worldwide - Forecast for Rotavirus Vaccine Market (in Billion US$), 2010

Figure 4-9: Worldwide – By Geographic Region Number of Tuberculosis Cases (in Thousand), 2006

Figure 4-10: Worldwide – Distribution of Tuberculosis Patients in Previous Cases, New Smear-positive

Cases & HIV-positive Cases (in Million & Percent), 2006

Figure 4-11: Worldwide – Forecast for TB BCG-Replacement Vaccine (in US$ Million), 2013 – 2030

Figure 4-12: Worldwide – Forecast for TB Booster Vaccine (in US$ Million), 2013 -2030

Figure 4-13: Worldwide – Forecast for TB Prime-Boost Strategy (in US$ Million), 2013 – 2030

Figure 4-14: Worldwide – By Player Share of DTP Combos Market (in Million & Percent), 2004

Figure 4-15: Worldwide – By Region Hepatitis B Vaccine Immunization Coverage (in Percent), 2007

Figure 4-16: Worldwide - Hepatitis B Vaccine Market (in Billion US$), 2005 - 2010F

Figure 4-17: Worldwide – Combined Hepatitis B Vaccine Market of Europe & Asia Pacific Region (in

Billion & Percent US$), 2006

Figure 4-18: Worldwide – Forecast for Malaria Vaccine Market (in Million US$), 2010 – 2025



Figure 4-19: Worldwide – Forecast for Military Market for Malaria Vaccine (in Million US$), 2010 – 2025

Figure 4-20: Worldwide – Forecast for Private Market for Malaria Vaccine (in Million US$), 2010 – 2025

Figure 4-21: Worldwide – Forecast for Public Market for Malaria Vaccine (in Million US$), 2010 – 2025

Figure 4-22: Worldwide - Japanese Encephalitis Vaccine Market (in Million US$), 2004 – 2007

Figure 4-23: Worldwide – Forecast for Japanese Encephalitis Vaccine Market (in Million US$), 2008 –

2012

Figure 4-24: Worldwide – Japanese Encephalitis Vaccine Market Growth (in Percent), 2004 – 2012F

Figure 4-25: US – Number of West Nile Virus Cases & Deaths (in Numbers), Since 1999

Figure 4-26: Worldwide – Forecast for West Nile Vaccines Market (in Million US$), 2010

Figure 4-27: Worldwide – Number of Ebola Cases & Deaths (in Numbers)

Figure 4-28: Worldwide & US – Forecast of Ebola Vaccines Market (in Million US$), 2011

Figure 4-29: Worldwide – Forecast for Cervical Cancer Cases (in Numbers), 2015 & 2030

Figure 4-30: Worldwide - Cervical Cancer Vaccines Market (in Billion US$), 2007 – 2010F

Figure 4-31: Worldwide - Number of Typhoid Cases (in Numbers) Every Year

Figure 4-32: Worldwide – Travelers Market for Typhoid Vaccine (in Million US$), 2003 & 2014F

Figure 5-1: India – Vaccine Market (in Million US$), 2006 – 2013F

Figure 5-2: India – Share of Pediatric Vaccine Market & Adult/Travel & Therapeutic Market (in Million US$

& Percent), 2006-07

Figure 5-3: China – Vaccine Market (in Million US$), 2006 – 2013F

Figure 5-4: China – Market Share of Chinese & Foreigner Drug Manufacturer in Vaccine (in US$ Million &

Percent), 2006

Figure 5-5: Japan – Vaccine Market (in Million US$), 2008 & 2016F

Figure 5-6: US – Vaccine Market (in Billion US$), 2003 & 2008E



List of Tables:

Table 2-1: Worldwide – 15 Major Acquisitions in Pharmaceuticals (in Billion US$), 2005 – 2009

Table 2-2: Worldwide – 16 Major Acquisitions in Biotechnology (in Billion US$), 2005 – 2009

Table 2-3: Worldwide – Vaccines Market: Prevnar, Gardasil, Engerix-B, Havrix, Twinrix, Infanrix, Pediarix,

Fluzone, and IPOL, Hib, Petrussis – Sales (in Billion US$), 2006 - 2008

Table 4-1: Worldwide – Top 42 Countries with Maximum Number of Polio Cases, 2000 – March 2009

Table 4-2: Worldwide – 27 Countries with Number of Diarrhea Hospitalizations Cases and Rotavirus

Cases (in Number & Percent), 2000–2004

Table 4-3: Worldwide – By Geographic Region Number of Measles Cases, 2000 - 2007

Table 4-4: Worldwide – By Geographic Region Number of Mumps Cases, 2000 – 2007

Table 4-5: Worldwide – By Geographic Region Number of Rubella Cases, 2000 – 2007

Table 4-6: Worldwide – By Geographic Region Number of Diphtheria Cases, 2000 – 2007

Table 4-7: Worldwide – By Geographic Region Number of Pertussis Cases, 2000 – 2007

Table 4-8: Worldwide – By Geographic Region Number of Tetanus Cases, 2000 – 2007

Table 4-9: Worldwide – By Geographic Region Number of Malaria Cases, 2004 – 2006

Table 4-10: Worldwide – By Geographic Region Number of Japanese Encephalitis Cases, 2006 & 2007

Table 4-11: Worldwide – By Geographic Region Estimated Cancer Patients (in Numbers), 2007

Table 5-1: China - Vaccine Classification

Table 6-1: Worldwide – Forecast for Vaccines: GSK, Merck & Co., Novartis, Sanofi-aventis & Wyeth -

Sales as a Percentage of Overall Pharma Sales (in Percent), 2009 – 2012

Table 6-2: Worldwide – Sales Forecast for Vaccines Market: Cervarix, RotaTeq, Flu, Zostavax, ProQuad,

Infanrix (DTP), Menactra, Rotarix (in Million US$), 2010

Table 6-3: Worldwide – Revenues of Vaccine Brands: Gardasil, Prevnar, Fluzone/Vaxigrip/Mutagrip,

RotaTeq (in Million US$) 2007 & 2012F

Table 6-4: Worldwide – Revenue Forecast of Vaccine Brands: 13-Valent Pneumococcal, Synflorix,

Imvamune, H5N1 Influenza Vaccine, Hepatitis B vaccine (in Million US$), 2012

Table 6-5: Worldwide – Vaccine Sales of Companies: Merck, GSK, Sanofi Aventis, Wyeth, Novartis,

Sanofi Merck Pasteur, Baxter, Crucell, Saloy Mitsubishi-Tanable (in US$ Billion), 2007 & 2008



2. Vaccines Market - Why is it so Attractive

2.3 Several New Vaccines, Many with Blockbuster Potential

Several new vaccines, many with blockbuster potential, have been launched by the major

players in recent years. GSK has Rotarix for gastroenteritis, launched in a number of countries

since 2005; Globorix, a conjugated vaccine for immunization against diphtheria, pertussis,

hepatitis B, Neisseria meningitidis serogroups A and C, tetanus and Hib was filed in Europe in

March 2007; and a vaccine for H5N1 pandemic influenza was filed in January 2007. Cervical

cancer vaccine Cervarix, filed in Europe, Latin America, Asia and Australia in 2006, and in the

USA in March 2010. Cervarix is seen by many analysts as GSK's biggest near-term pipeline

opportunity.

Merck & Co and sanofi pasteur's cervical cancer vaccine, Gardasil, was launched in its first

market, the USA, in June 2006 and has since been introduced in several EU markets and

Canada. "Gardasil will make a major impact on the Sanofi Pasteur MSD joint venture during

2007. Menactra for meningitis: Menactra, first launched in the US in March 2005, achieved

sales of US$ 330 Million for 2006 and US$ 246 Million in the first half of 2007.

In 2008 Pravnar remained the top selling vaccine brand with sales of US$ 3 Billion followed by

Gardasil at US$ 2.8 Billion and GSK Hepatitis and Infantrix/Pediatrix Vaccines each with sales

of US$ 1.2 Billion each. Merck, GSK, Sanofi Aventis, Wyeth and Novartis were the top five

vaccine companies. More vaccines are likely to reach sales of US$ 1 Billion and more in the

next two years. FDA in 2008 approved 1 new vaccine (Rotarix)

Several recently launched vaccines like Rotarix and Menveo are likely to bring in sales of over

US$ 1 Billion within 2-3 years of launch. In R&D a follow up Prevanar from Wyeth look very

attractive. The market and sales data in 2008 provides once again strong support for the R&D

paradigm shift to biologic and within biologic towards human monoclonal antibodies,

vaccines, erythropoietins, insulin’s and interferons.



Table 2-3: Worldwide – Vaccines Market: Prevnar, Gardasil, Engerix-B, Havrix, Twinrix, Infanrix, Pediarix, Fluzone, and IPOL, Hib, Petrussis – Sales (in Billion US$), 2006 - 2008

Brand Generic Name Company Indication Sales US$ Billion

2006 2007 2008

Prevnar Pneumococcal ConjugateVaccine

Wyeth Pneumococcal Dis 1.9 2.44 3

Gardasil Human Papillomavirus Quadrivalent Vaccine

Merck Cervical Cancer - 1.6 2.8

Engerix-B, Havrix, Twinrix

Hepatitis A & B Vaccines

GSK Hepatitis 0.89 1.1 1.2

Infanrix, Pediarix

Children Vaccine GSK Diphtheria, Tetanus, and Pertussis

0.94 1.1 1.2

Fluzone Influenza Vaccines Sanofi Aventis Pasteur

Influenza 1.0 1.1 1.2

IPOL, Hib, Petrussis

Polio, Hepatitis B Vaccines

Sanofi Aventis Pasteur

Polio, Hepatitis B Petrussis

0.8 0.9 1.0

Rota Teq Rotavirus vaccine Merck & Co+ Sanofi Pasteur MSD

Rotavirus vaccine - 0.5 -

Source: Knol, Raymond James & Associates, Evaluatepharma



3. Worldwide Vaccine Market

3.1 By Sector – Vaccine Market

3.1.1 Influenza

Influenza is a viral infection that affects mainly the nose, throat, bronchi and, occasionally,

lungs. Infection usually lasts for about a week, and is characterized by sudden onset of high

fever, aching muscles, headache and severe malaise, non-productive cough, sore throat and

rhinitis. The virus is transmitted easily from person to person via droplets and small particles

produced when infected people cough or sneeze. Influenza tends to spread rapidly in seasonal

epidemics.

Vaccination against influenza with an influenza vaccine is often recommended for high-risk

groups, such as children and the elderly, or in people that have asthma, diabetes, or heart

disease. The most common human vaccine is the trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) that

contains purified and inactivated material from three viral strains. Typically, this vaccine

includes material from two influenza A virus subtypes and one influenza B virus strain.

The TIV carries no risk of transmitting the disease, and it has very low reactivity. A vaccine

formulated for one year may be ineffective in the following year, since the influenza virus

evolves rapidly, and different strains become dominant. Antiviral drugs can be used to treat

influenza, with neuraminidase inhibitors being particularly effective. The influenza vaccine

market was valued at US$ 2.9 Billion in 2008, and it is expected to reach US$ 4.7 Billion by

2013 growing with a CAGR of 9.9 percent from 2008 to 2013.



Figure 3-2: Worldwide – Influenza Vaccine Market (in Million US$), 2004 – 2008

1,500.0

1,833.3

2,166.7

2,583.3

2,950.0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

in M

illi

on

US

$

Source: Novartis, Renub Research Collection

Figure 3-3: Worldwide – Forecast for Influenza Vaccine Market (in Million US$), 2009 – 2013

3,166.7

3,500.0

3,872.8

4,285.2

4,741.6

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

in M

illi

on

US

$

Source: Novartis, Renub Research Collection



4. Major Vaccine Cases, Market Sizes & Future Forecast

4.1 Pneumococcal Vaccines

Pneumococcal disease is caused by a bacterium called Streptococcus pneumoniae. There are

more than 90 different types of pneumococcal bacteria; however, only a few types account

for most of the serious diseases. Many people carry S. pneumoniae in their throat or nose

without getting sick.

If the bacteria overcome body's natural defenses, then they can cause various diseases. The

most serious of these is meningitis, an inflammation of the tissue surrounding the brain and

spinal cord. Pneumococcal meningitis is fatal in up to 26 percent of cases. Among people who

recover, it can cause permanent health effects, including brain damage and hearing loss.

Other diseases caused by S. pneumoniae include bacteremia (blood poisoning), pneumonia

(lung infection), and otitis media (middle ear infections).

Pneumococcal disease is treated with antibiotics, such as penicillin and cephalosporins. In

recent years, certain strains of S. pneumoniae have emerged that are resistant to one or more

commonly used antibiotics. This makes prevention of pneumococcal disease through

vaccination even more important.

4.1.1 Market Size of Pneumococcal Vaccines & Future Forecast

At present one product manufactured by Wyeth as the brand name Prevnar is available in the

market. In 2007 Prevnar sales surged 24 percent to US$ 2.4 Billion, making it the first vaccine

to exceed US$ 2 Billion in annual sales. It is estimated that over the next 10 years (by 2018)

global immunization funding could be as much as US$ 8 Billion for new vaccines.

The major drivers for the growth of Pneumococcal vaccine is to come from 30 of the 72 GAVI

countries expressed interest in introducing pneumococcal conjugate vaccine between 2008

and 2010. These countries are Benin, Burundi, the Republic of Congo, Rep. of Cote d'Ivoire,

Djibouti, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guyana, Honduras, Indonesia,

Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Rwanda, Sao Tome and



Principe, Senegal, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Sudan, The Gambia, Timor Leste, Togo,

Uganda, Yemen, and Zambia.

Figure 4-2: Worldwide - Pneumococcal Vaccine Market (in Billion US$), 2004 - 2007 & 2018F

1.041.50

1.962.43

8.00

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2004 2005 2006 2007 2018

in B

illi

on

US

$

Source: Wyeth Annual Report, newsgroups.derkeiler.com, Pneumococcal Accelerated Development and Introduction Plan at Johns Hopkins (PneumoADIP)

4.9 Malaria Vaccines

Malaria is a tropical disease of major global health significance. There are approximately 300

to 500 Million cases each year and around 2 to 3 Million deaths. Most of these deaths are in

children aged 1 to 5 in sub-Saharan Africa, making it the biggest single infectious killer of

children in the world.

Malaria is caused by several species of the parasite Plasmodium these are P. falciparum,

P.vivax (these first two cause most of the vast number of clinical cases of malaria), P.

malariae and P. ovale. The research work of our group concentrates on P. falciparum as this

is the type that leads to the majority of malaria deaths. The Plasmodium parasite is spread to

humans by the bite of an infected female Anopheles mosquito.



These mosquitoes breed in areas where there is stagnant water such as swamps and during

the rainy seasons of African countries. Unfortunately, the problem of malaria is getting worse

as the mosquitoes that transmit the disease are becoming resistant to insecticides and the

parasites themselves are becoming increasingly resistant to the drugs used to treat the

disease. Vaccines for malaria are under clinical trials in many countries and by 2010 it is

expected that first vaccine will be launched.

4.9.1 Number of Malaria Cases

The total number of Malaria cases reported in 2007 is 88.6 Million; it is 2.3 percent more than

the previous year (2006). African Region reported the highest cases in 2007.

Table 4-9: Worldwide – By Geographic Region Number of Malaria Cases, 2004 – 2006

Region 2004 2005 2006

Africa 71,888,863 75,117,418 78,246,471

Americas 10,31,897 1,136,730 1,042,407

Eastern Mediterranean 3,201,214 3,479,428 2,922,532

Europe 7,944 4,183 2,142

South-East Asia 4,654,757 4,706,191 4,338,271

Western Pacific 2,476,029 2,246,966 2,132,844

Total 82,228,807 86,690,916 88,684,667

Source: World Health Organization (WHO), World Malaria Report 2008



Figure 4-19: Worldwide – Forecast for Military Market for Malaria Vaccine (in Million US$), 2010 – 2025

0.0

22.1

30.9

41.9

46.348.5

55.1 56.0 56.9 57.4 58.2 58.7 59.6 60.0 61.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

in M

illi

on

US

$

Source: MVI market assessment, BCG analysis Note: The vaccine is schedule to launch between 2010 & 2011 so the demand in these two years cannot be drawn.



6. Competitive Landscape

6.2 Worldwide – Sales Forecast for Key Vaccine Brands

According to an estimate by 2010 sales of Cervarix vaccine product of GSK will reach US$ 2.4

Billion. Infanrix (DTP) and Flu vaccine both is forecasted to post sales of US$ 1.5 Billion and

US$ 1.2 Billion by 2010.

Table 6-2: Worldwide – Sales Forecast for Vaccines Market: Cervarix, RotaTeq, Flu, Zostavax, ProQuad, Infanrix (DTP), Menactra, Rotarix (in Million US$), 2010

Vaccine Company Forecasts (Million US$)

Cervarix GSK 2,339

RotaTeq sanofi/Merck 940

Flu sanofi pasteur 1,221

Zostavax sanofi/Merck 840

ProQuad sanofi/Merck 790

Infanrix (DTP) GSK 1,531

Menactra sanofi/Merck 497

Rotarix GSK 426

Source: Credit Suisse, Cowen & Co., Bear Stearns



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