wp 02 socio-economic framework and guidelines deliverables presentation universidade atlântica -...

WP 02 Socio-economic WP 02 Socio-economic framework and guidelinesframework and guidelines

Deliverables Presentation Deliverables Presentation

Universidade Atlântica - PortugalUniversidade Atlântica - Portugal

Cesme’s Meeting, 18-21 SeptemberCesme’s Meeting, 18-21 September

WP 02 Socio-economic WP 02 Socio-economic framework and guidelinesframework and guidelinesD02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report); Report);

D02.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic D02.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators analysis: issues and indicators


The main objective of this document is the identification of The main objective of this document is the identification of socio-economic frameworksocio-economic framework problem issues regarding both problem issues regarding both the thematic point of view and the methodological the thematic point of view and the methodological constrains. constrains. As it described on the general objectives of the As it described on the general objectives of the SMART SMART projectproject, the socioeconomic dimension is one of the , the socioeconomic dimension is one of the components present on the final results “to develop and components present on the final results “to develop and implement a set of tools (…) integrating physical and implement a set of tools (…) integrating physical and socioeconomic aspects within a common consistent socioeconomic aspects within a common consistent framework of indicators of sustainable development.”framework of indicators of sustainable development.”

This deliverable of WP2 focuses mainly the human This deliverable of WP2 focuses mainly the human systems, but also the natural systems, particularly on the systems, but also the natural systems, particularly on the interactions and feedback mechanisms between them.interactions and feedback mechanisms between them.

D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report) D02.1: Identification of problem issues (Summary Report)


1. Water demand problems issues 1. Water demand problems issues

Task 1 - Population, demographic and Task 1 - Population, demographic and migration policy analysismigration policy analysis

Population projectionPopulation projection

Demographic policy and population projections Demographic policy and population projections

Key Planning Assumptions on Demographic Key Planning Assumptions on Demographic

ProjectionsProjections



Task 2 - Political and economic options Task 2 - Political and economic options adopted for the study areasadopted for the study areas

““The use of economic instruments by Member The use of economic instruments by Member States may be appropriate as part of a programme States may be appropriate as part of a programme of measures. The principle of recovery of the costs of measures. The principle of recovery of the costs of water services, including environmental and of water services, including environmental and resource costs associated with damage or negative resource costs associated with damage or negative impact on the aquatic environment should be taken impact on the aquatic environment should be taken into account in accordance with, in particular, the into account in accordance with, in particular, the polluter-pays principle” (Point 38 in WFD)polluter-pays principle” (Point 38 in WFD)



Task 2 - Political and economic options Task 2 - Political and economic options adopted for the study areasadopted for the study areas

The water is there to produce better commoditiesThe water is there to produce better commoditiesemphasis on economic values to greater emphasis on economic values to greater appreciation of aesthetic, environmental, and appreciation of aesthetic, environmental, and ecosystem values and the preservation of the ecosystem values and the preservation of the resources resources

The limits of a sustainable resources and the The limits of a sustainable resources and the problem of problem of tradıctıontradıctıon



Task 3 - Competing water usesTask 3 - Competing water uses

Demographic (population growth).Demographic (population growth).Economic (economic output; trade; works investment).Economic (economic output; trade; works investment).Technological (hi-tech expansion; water efficiency; unit water Technological (hi-tech expansion; water efficiency; unit water

pollutionpollutionIInvestment; withdrawal efficiency).nvestment; withdrawal efficiency).Social (global lifestyles; inequity).Governance (power Social (global lifestyles; inequity).Governance (power structure; level of conflict; globalization).structure; level of conflict; globalization).Environmental (water-related diseases; groundwater; Environmental (water-related diseases; groundwater; ecosystem health)ecosystem health)

Water demand ScenariosWater demand ScenariosDriving forces propelling the global water scenarios:Driving forces propelling the global water scenarios:



Task 3 - Competing water usesTask 3 - Competing water uses

Uncertainty in water-demand predictionsUncertainty in water-demand predictions

Projecting 25 years involves assuming many political, Projecting 25 years involves assuming many political, environmental, economic, and technical factors will not environmental, economic, and technical factors will not change radicallychange radically

If the assumptions are changed (for example, If the assumptions are changed (for example, population decreases in the area) the water-demand population decreases in the area) the water-demand results will change. results will change.

The results depend on the validity of the assumptionsThe results depend on the validity of the assumptions


1. Water demand problems issues 1. Water demand problems issues Task 4 - Economic analysis of water Task 4 - Economic analysis of water

resourcesresources

Economic analysis may suggest institutional changes or Economic analysis may suggest institutional changes or

policy measures needed to sustain the financial and policy measures needed to sustain the financial and

economic benefits generated by the project. economic benefits generated by the project.

Technical sustainability is looked after as part of the Technical sustainability is looked after as part of the

analysis of alternatives and determination of the least-analysis of alternatives and determination of the least-

cost option, which is done in the early project cost option, which is done in the early project

preparation or feasibility stage. preparation or feasibility stage.

WP3

WP5-9 WP4

WP2

WP1

WP10

Integration of the socio-economic component: Quantitative and qualitative indicators

WP2 Data required for the case studies

WP2 Methodologic Guidelines

List of WP2 Indicators

WP2 Case Study reports

Fullfill Data Sets

WP2 Case Study Reports

Fullfill Data Sets

Key local actors Definition of data and

document requirements


2. Socioeconomic analysis concerns on SMART project 2. Socioeconomic analysis concerns on SMART project

2.1. Links between WP’s2.1. Links between WP’s



Links with WP3 Links with WP3

The analytical tools of TELMAC must include linkages with the socio-economic analysis

The result of demographic Projections and mainly the result of the Water Demand Predictive System must be integrated on TELEMAC

How to bring policy analysis to TELEMAC? To solve this problem it is necessary to take into account the policy aspects defined by the case study partners when it will be defined as water management options to run the model



Links with WP10 Links with WP10

Appending socioeconomic indicators

The overall goal of the socioeconomic indicators is to

develop a set of regional indicators to provide a

planning tool for application to water demand at

regional and national levels

The WP2 represent for the SMART the very first time

that the WFD appear as an indication about socio-

economics aspects and public participation objectives



2.2. Integrated analysis between socio-economic Tasks2.2. Integrated analysis between socio-economic Tasks

• Population and Water• Population and Water Stress• Water and Development• Water scarcity and conflict



2.4. Methodological issues2.4. Methodological issues

How can we approach to the variety in temporal and

spatial scales of natural and social systems in order to

obtain a description of feedback mechanisms in case

study regions?

Feedback mechanisms in social systems

Time scales in natural systems

Cannot generalize the experience for all the country

Comparative studies between different countries



2.5. Key finding topics2.5. Key finding topics

Water scarcity and conflict

Degradation and decrease of water resources

Societies can adapt to water scarcity?

1. Water use more sustainable2. Producing goods and services that do not rely

heavily on water resource3. If social and economic adaptation to the water

resources scarcity is failed, the economic development constrains could be the source of population migrations


3. Suggestions for a deeper analysis3. Suggestions for a deeper analysis

3.1. People’s participation (as it described by WFD)

3.2. Understanding of geographical relationships between

the available

3.3. The Purpose of Sensitivity Analysis


4. Overview4. Overview

• Help decision-makers better understand where to

intervene to improve socio-economic result;• Strengthen the research methodology and theories to

understand the patterns result from the

interrelationships between all socioeconomic and

political factors;• Gather together a large quantity of relevant water

demand data and make these data available to a better

development of the TELEMAC• Strengthen the network of experts from different

countries and from different disciplines with the same

objective

Step 1. Presentation of the general principals and data sets of the Step 1. Presentation of the general principals and data sets of the methodology for the socio-economic analysis (Cairo’s meeting)methodology for the socio-economic analysis (Cairo’s meeting)

Step2. Reactions from the case study partnersStep2. Reactions from the case study partners

Step3. Launching of the document Report on MethodologiesStep3. Launching of the document Report on Methodologies

Step 4. Adaptation of the model systems according to the user Step 4. Adaptation of the model systems according to the user requirements of WP 01requirements of WP 01

Step 5.Step 5. D2.2: Guidelines for the socio-D2.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicatorseconomic analysis: issues and indicators

D2.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators D2.2: Guidelines for the socio-economic analysis: issues and indicators

Driving forces and pressures Driving forces and pressures The demands of water differ drastically according to life-style, region The demands of water differ drastically according to life-style, region and level of development. The measures of water demand alone are and level of development. The measures of water demand alone are poor indicators about water quantity and quality.poor indicators about water quantity and quality.

The main objective of the WP02 is the development of an integrated The main objective of the WP02 is the development of an integrated methodological principles for analysing the water demand system methodological principles for analysing the water demand system and socio-economic changes. The integrated study of changes and and socio-economic changes. The integrated study of changes and prospective thus appears to be an essential contributing factor to prospective thus appears to be an essential contributing factor to the understanding of Global Change.the understanding of Global Change.

The socialisation of the hydrological models is only fully developed The socialisation of the hydrological models is only fully developed with the creation of a local level of analysis, where it may serve as with the creation of a local level of analysis, where it may serve as support for structuring enquiries for agents of change.support for structuring enquiries for agents of change.


Population analysis, including migration issues and Population analysis, including migration issues and projections, i.e. evolution of the demographic variables and projections, i.e. evolution of the demographic variables and the trends observed in the near past.the trends observed in the near past.

For population data the analysis should rely mainly on the For population data the analysis should rely mainly on the national, regional and local population census (or national, regional and local population census (or estimates) to define population’s projections to 2025. The estimates) to define population’s projections to 2025. The projections are neither forecasts nor predictions, but rather projections are neither forecasts nor predictions, but rather calculations of future changes in population size given calculations of future changes in population size given specific assumptions about trends in fertility, mortality and specific assumptions about trends in fertility, mortality and migration. migration.

Population, demographic and migration Population, demographic and migration policy analysispolicy analysis



spatial temporal Numeric

1990 yes

2000 yes

Immigration yes

Emigration yes

Resident population 1990 yes

Municipality area 2000 yes


Households 2000 yes


Number of deaths 2000 yes


Number of live births 2000 yes

Female population by age groups 1990 yes

Number of live births 2000 yes

1990 yes

2000 yes

Regional

UNITS in which the data is measured

Population growth rate % of growing Resident population Municipal/Regional

Municipal/RegionalNumber of persons by household Number of persons by household

Regional%oCrude Death Rate

Regional/NationalSynthetic general fertility index number of children by mother

Regional/NationalLife expectancy at birth number of years Life expectancy at birth

between 1990 and

2000Migratory balance Number of people

Number of people/municipality area (km²)

Population Density Municipal/Regional

Regional

INDICATORSUNITS in which the indicator is

expressedDATA NEEDS

Crude Birth Rate %o



Analysis of demographic policies influencing the growth trends

Population, demographic and migration policiesPopulation, demographic and migration policiesBirth control policy (e.g. limiting or promoting the Birth control policy (e.g. limiting or promoting the

fertility)fertility)Migration policy (e.g. limiting or freeing migration Migration policy (e.g. limiting or freeing migration

policies)policies)Health (e.g. control of specific diseases or general Health (e.g. control of specific diseases or general

improvement of the health system)improvement of the health system)


Political and economic options Political and economic options

The level and the pattern of economic growth is, among other causes, a result of the existing policies. This task will analyse those policies and the options for economic growth that can be at the origin of competing water uses

The main objectives are to characterise the strategic and regulatory instruments at national, regional and municipal levels; and the identification and characterisation of the different levels of decision related to the water management


Political and economic options Political and economic options


1990 yes

2000 yesResident population 1990 yes

Number of persons with an economic activity

2000 yes

1990 yes

2000 yes

1990 yes

2000 yes1990 yes2000 yes

Tourism income 1990 yes

Regional product 2000 yes

Regional/National

Regional/NationalActivity rate

Growth of G.D.P. (Gross Domestic Product) at market

prices%

%

Regional/National

Regional/National

Agricultural income distribution by the main types

of production€

Agricultural income distribution by the main

types of production

Industrial lncome distribution by main industrial activity

groups€

Income distribution by main industrial activity groups

Tourism income contribution to the regional product

€ Regional/National

Percentage of tertiary employment

%Employment in tertiary

sectorRegional/National


expressedDATA NEEDS

G.D.P. (Gross Domestic Product) at market prices



Competing water uses Competing water uses

A characterisation of the various actors and

interests and the identification of water demands

The economic and demographic structure of the

rural/urban interface is analysed in terms of the

consequences for multi-sectoral current and

projected water demand, and the implied conflicts





Total water consumed 2000 yesResident population 1990 yes

water consumed per person for the purposes of

ingestion, hygiene, cooking, washing of utensils and

other household purposes

2000 yes

1990 yes

2000 yes

1990 yes

2000 yes1990 yes2000 yes

Regional/NationallitersWater consumption per capita

Domestic consumption of water per capita

liters Regional/National

liters

Commercial water consumption

Industrial water consumption per unit

Total water consumption

Regional/National

Regional/National

Regional/NationalTotal water consumed

water consumed per commercial activity

water consumed per industrial unit

liters

liters


expressedDATA NEEDS




Business as Usual Scenario•Assumes the continuation of existing trends

•Depend of the case studies dynamics framework

Water Crisis Scenario•Population trends that can increase more pressure over water use

•Aggravation of existing policies and trends that could have harmful effects over

water

•Economic activities growth implying an increasing water use

Sustainable Water Use Scenario•Assumes improvement of existing or new policies and trends and focus on

environment (as the example of WFD)

•Higher water use efficiency due to water management reform

•Water prices changes


Based on the characterisation of those dynamics in the SMART case

studies it will be possible to determine the following scenarios:

Competing water uses Competing water uses The Scenarıos extends the past into the future and is an accurate predictor of the future only if the

future events follow the prevıous pattern established

The economy of a region depends on the economy of national or international scales

Specific forecasts and projections include economic forecasts for each country and corresponding

international forecasts to the year 2025, along with United Nations Demographic Bureau

projections of the population of the Middle East countries 2025

The scenarıos providıng a range of values for population, employment, and income.

For the high end, alternative projections must be developed by various methodologies designed to

capture the likely impacts of continued development at the higher rates seen during the last few

years

Together, the Business as usual, Water crisis and Sustainable water use scenarios provide a range

within which growth can reasonably be expected to occur


Economic analysis of water resources Economic analysis of water resources

The purpose of this economic analysis of water resources is to bring into the analysis the prices of water (by each economic sector), the costs among the different water users and other negative externalities, which can influence this economic analysis.

The water price is set on a political base; therefore full-cost pricing of water services is often not achieved. The results of a market price strategy must be analysed, but also the effects of a governmental intervention, which can be based on the defence of social interests.


Economic analysis of water resources Economic analysis of water resources


Water price for the domestic use

€Water price for the domestic

useRegional/National 2000 yes

Water price for the Agriculture €Water price for the

AgricultureRegional/National 2000 yes

Water price for the Industry € Water price for the Industry Regional/National 2000 yes

Water price for the Tourism units

€Water price for the Tourism

unitsRegional/National 2000 yes

Water treatment investments €Water treatment

investmentsRegional/National 2000 yes

Reservoir storage investments

€Reservoir storage

investmentsRegional/National 2000 yes

Water distribution and use systems investments

€Water distribution and use

systems investmentsRegional/National 2000 yes

UNITS in which the data is measured INDICATORS

UNITS in which the indicator is expressed

DATA NEEDS


WP 02 Socio-economic WP 02 Socio-economic framework and guidelinesframework and guidelines

WP2 deliverables are already finishedWP2 deliverables are already finishedWP2 case study reports: some lacks identifiedWP2 case study reports: some lacks identifiedWP2-WP3 must be implemented on the future WP2-WP3 must be implemented on the future development of the TELEMAC based on the development of the TELEMAC based on the deliverable reportsdeliverable reportsWP2-WP10 it will be based on the socio-WP2-WP10 it will be based on the socio-economic indicators already defined and based economic indicators already defined and based on the WP2 case study reportson the WP2 case study reports


State of the artState of the art

wp 02 socio-economic framework and guidelines deliverables presentation universidade atlântica -...

Documents

problem of tradcton

guidelines d02

economic values

economic options

costs of water services

wfd slide

socioeconomic analysis

demographic projections