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Institute for Studies in Industrial Development4, Institutional Area Phase II, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi - 110 070

Phone: +91 11 2676 4600 / 2689 1111; Fax: +91 11 2612 2448E-mail: [email protected]; Website: http://isid.org.in

About the ISIDThe Institute for Studies in Industrial Development (ISID), successor to the Corporate Studies Group (CSG), is a national-level policy research organization in the public domain and is affiliated to the Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR). Developing on the initial strength of studying Indias industrial regulations, ISID has gained varied expertise in the analysis of the issues thrown up by the changing policy environment. The Institutes research and academic activities are organized under the following broad thematic areas:

Industrialization: Land acquisition, special economic zones, encroachment of agricultural land, manufacturing sector, changing organized-unorganised sector relationship, rise of service economy in India, training and skill formation etc.;

Corporate Sector: With special emphasis on liberalization-induced changes in the structures of the sector, corporate governance, individual firms/groups, emerging patterns of internationalization, and of business-state interaction;

Trade, Investment and Technology: Trends and patterns of cross-border capital flows of goods and services, mergers & acquisitions, inward and outward FDI etc. and their implications for Indias position in the international division of labour;

Regulatory Mechanism: Study of regulatory authorities in the light of Indias own and international experience, competition issues;

Employment: Trends and patterns in employment growth, non-farm employment, distributional issues, problems of migrant labour and the changes in workforce induced by economic and technological changes;

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ISID ISID

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT LINKAGES

The Indian Experience

January 2013

Working PaperNo: 2013/01

T.S. Papola

T.S. Papola

Institute for Studies in Industrial Development 4, Institutional Area, Vasant Kunj Phase II, New Delhi - 110 070 Phone: +91 11 2676 4600 / 2689 1111; Fax: +91 11 2612 2448

E-mail: [email protected]; Website: http://isid.org.in

January 2013

ISIDWORKINGPAPER

2013/01

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT LINKAGES

The Indian Experience

Institute for Studies in Industrial Development, 2013

ISID Working Papers are meant to disseminate the tentative results and findings obtained from the ongoing research activities at the Institute and to attract comments and suggestions which may kindly be addressed to the author(s).

CONTENTS

Abstract 1I Introduction 1II EmploymentGrowthinIndia:LongTermandContemporaryPerspectives 3III GrowthinEmploymentandGDP 5IV EmploymentGrowthinMajorEconomicActivitySectors 7V EmploymentGrowthinRuralandUrbanAreas 8VI EmploymentinRuralNonFarmSector 10VIIEmploymentGrowthintheOrganisedSector:ReversalofaDecliningTrend? 13VIIIEmploymentGrowthinManufacturing:RoleofExportGrowth 15IX EmploymentGrowthinEmergingServices 18X TowardsanEmploymentOrientedGrowthStrategy 21References 24ListofTablesTable1 GrowthofEmployment(UPSS) 4Table2 GrowthofGDP(AtConstant19992000Price):197273/200910 5Table3 EmploymentElasticityWithrespecttoGDP 6Table4 GrowthofRuralEmployment(UPSS) 9Table5 GrowthofUrbanEmployment(UPSS) 10Table6 SectoralDistributionofRuralNDP(PerCent) 11Table7 CompositionofRuralNonFarmEmployment(UPSS) 12Table8 GrowthofEmploymentinOrganisedSector 14Table9 GrowthofManufacturing(Organised&Unorganised)

Employment:1983/200405 16Table10GrowthofManufacturingExports(MajorItems)

(GrowthRates,PerCentPerAnnum) 17Table11GrowthandStructureofIndiasMerchandiseExports

(199596to200304) 18Table12EmploymentinITandItsServices,India19992009 19

ECONOMICGROWTHANDEMPLOYMENTLINKAGES

TheIndianExperience*

T.S.Papola**

[Abstract:Conventionalgrowthmodelsincorporatecapitalbutnotlabourasthedeterminingvariable.Analternativewaytolookatgrowthistotreatitafunctionofgrowthofemploymentandproductivity:growthisderivedfromincreaseineitherorboth.Abalancebetweenthetwoisessential,especiallyinalabourabundantlowproductivityeconomyofIndia.Overtheyear,thecontributionofemploymenthasdeclinedandthatofproductivityincreasedinthegrowthofGDP,sothatduringthelastdecade80percentofgrowthwasaccountedforbyproductivityincreaseandonly20percentbyemploymentgrowth.LongtermemploymentgrowthinIndiahasbeenabout2percentperannumbuthasdeclinedtoabout1.5percentduringthelastdecade,whenGDPgrowthhasacceleratedtoaround7.5percentServices,which have been the major source of recent growth have particularly seen a sharp decline inemploymentelasticity.Asteepriseinexporthasalsonotdeliveredonemploymentfrontasexpected.Arebalancingofgrowthwithfocusonmanufacturingindustryandgreaterdomesticorientationisnownecessarytoimproveitsemploymentcontent.]

I. IntroductionIn themainstream growth theory, economic growth is postulated to be a function ofcapital investment and incremental capitaloutput ratio (ICOR). Labour input andemployment do not feature as variables in the neoclassical growth models. Analternativeandequally,ifnotmore,meaningfulwayoflookingateconomicgrowthistoviewitasfunctionofemploymentandproductivity.Aggregategrowthinoutputinthisapproachistheoutcomeofincreaseinemploymentandthatinproductivity.Itisderivedeitherbyemployingmorepeople,orimprovingoutputperworkerorboth.Thislinkagebetween employment and growth is often forgotten and the two are treated as

* Keynotepaperpresented at the 95thAnnualConferenceof the IndianEconomicAssociation,

GeetamUniversity,Vishakhapatnam, 2729December, 2012.Thepaperpartlydrawsupon astudybyT.S.PapolaandP.P.Sahu,Growth andStructure ofEmployment:LongTerm andPostReformPerformanceandEmergingChallenges, ISIDOccasionalPaperSeries,2012/01,undertakenas part of a research programme on StructuralChanges, Industry and Employment in theIndianEconomysponsoredbyICSSRandcoordinatedbytheauthorofISID,NewDelhi.

** ICSSRNationalFellowandHonoraryProfessor,ISID,NewDelhiEmail:[email protected]

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independentofeachother.Suchanapproachsendsmisleadingsignalstopolicymakerswhothentreatgrowthasaproductiveprocessandemploymentasawelfaremeasure.

In an economy like India with large surplus labour, importance of an employmentorientedgrowth isobvious. jobless;growth iscertainlynot themostdesirable formofgrowth.At the same time, an overemphasis on employment generationwithout anyregard toproductivityand incomesofworkers isalsonotdesirable,particularly inaneconomywhereproductivityandincomelevelsaregenerallylow.Emphasishastobeonproductiveandremunerativeemployment:thenewemploymentthatisgeneratedhasto be at increasing levels of productivity in order that it does not assume povertyperpetuating or povertygenerating nature. In other words, economic growth shouldresult froma suitable combinationofemploymentgrowthandproductivitygrowth. Itimplies that employmentoriented growth in a country like India would have, ofnecessity,tobeatahighrate.

Economic growth in India has generally failed to strike a desirable balance betweengrowthofproductivityandemployment.Duringthefirstthirtyyearsafterembarkingonthe planned path of economic development, the economy, in any case, grew at arelatively low rate averaging about 3.5 per cent per annum. Major part of it wascontributedby employment,whichgrew at about 2per centper annum,productivitycontributingtheremaining1.5percent.Whilea2percentemploymentgrowthwasnotseenasadequatebecause labour forcewasgrowingathigher rateof2.5percent, thusleadingtoanincreaseinunemployment,alowerriseinproductivitywasalsonotaveryhealthysigngivenalreadyverylowlevelsofproductivityandincomesofworkers.Theproblembasically lay inlowrateofgrowth:onlyahigherrateofgrowthofGDPcouldhaveaffordedreasonablyhighincreasebothinproductivityandemployment.

Economicgrowthhasbeenatahighrateinpost1980,andspeciallyinpost1990period.Butithasbeencharacterizedbytheotherkindofimbalance:mostofithasbeenderivedfromriseinproductivityandonlyalittlefromincreaseinemployment.During1980s,ofthe 5.5 per cent annual growth in GDP, 2 per cent was accounted for by growth ofemployment, and 3.5 per cent by growth of productivity. In the 6 per cent growthachievedduring1990s,contributionofemploymentwasonly1.8percentwith thatofproductivityrisingto4.2percent.Andduringthefirstdecadeofthiscentury,inthe7.5percentgrowthratetherespectivecontributionsofemploymentandproductivityhavebeen1.5and6percent.Thusthoughtherelativelyhighgrowthhasnotactuallybeenjobless,itsemploymentcontenthasbeenlowandhassharplydeclinedoverthedecadessince1980.

The present paper attempts an elaboration of the above story of growthemploymentlinkagesinIndiaoverthepastfourdecades.ItreviewstheemploymentperformanceoftheIndianeconomyinthelongandshortrunprospectiveandrelatesitwiththegrowthofGDPusingtheconceptofemploymentelasticity.Italsoreviewsemploymentgrowth

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and itsrelationshipwithGDPgrowth indifferentsectorsoftheeconomy.Employmentgrowth in rural and urban areas and in the rural nonfarm sector has been speciallyanalyzed. Special focus is alsoplaced on the growth of employment in the organizedsector, inexportsofmanufacturing,and someemerging services.Finallyoutlineofanemploymentorientedgrowthstrategyhasbeenattempted.

II.EmploymentGrowthinIndia:LongTermandContemporaryPerspectives

Employmenthasgrownatanaverageannual rateof twopercent in Indiaduring thepast fourdecades since197273whencomprehensive informationonemploymentandunemploymentstartedbecomingavailablefromtheNSSOquinquinnialsurveys.Initselfthiscouldbe regardedasa significant record,as suchanemploymentgrowthhasnotbeenrecordedbymanycountrieshistoricallyorinrecentperiods.Infact,mostcountriesingeneralanddevelopedcountriesinparticular,havehadverylowemploymentgrowthinrecentyears.AccordingtoILOdata,mostofthemsawanincreaseoflessthanonepercentper annum in their employmentduring the 1990s. Itwas 0.45per cent inUnitedStates,0.18percentinUnitedKingdom,0.32percentinFrance,0.41percentinGermanyand0.15percentinJapan.Inthecaseofdevelopingcountriesstrictlycomparabledataare not available, but broad assessment places their average employment growth ataround 1.5per centper annumduring thatperiod (ILO,KILM,2007 andGhose et al,2008). During the past decade, 20012010, employment is estimated to have growngloballyatabout1.5percentperannum: thedevelopedcountriesregisteringagrowthrateofbarelyoneper centduring 200108,which also seems tohavebeenmore thannegatedbya largedeclineduring thenext twoyears.Thedevelopingcountries inEastand SouthEastAsia, and transition economies of EasternEurope also saw very littlegrowth in employment. But Latin America and Africa performed better. South Asiamaintainedasteadygrowthofemploymentof2.4percent inwhichIndiahadamajorcontribution(ILO,KILM,2011).

Indias significant record on employment growth has, however, not been adequate inviewofafastergrowthoflabourforce.Further,thereareafewdisconcertingfeaturesofemploymentgrowth inrecentyears.First,employmentgrowthhasdecelerated.Second,employment content of growth has shown a decline. Third, sectors with higheremployment potential have registered relatively slower growth. Fourth, agriculture,despiteasharpdeclinein its importance ingrossdomesticproduct,continuestobethelargestemployerasthenonagriculturalsectorshavenotgeneratedenoughemploymenttoaffectashiftofworkforce.Fifth,mostoftheemploymentgrowthhasbeencontributedbytheunorganised,informalsectorwhichischaracterisedbypoorincomesandconditionsofwork.And,sixth,employmentgrowthintheorganisedsectorwhichseemstohavepickedupinrecentyearshasbeenmostlyinthecategoriesofcasualandcontractlabour.

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Longtermemploymentgrowthovertheperiodofaboutfourdecades,asnotedearlier,hasbeenaround2percentperannum.Ithas,however,seenadecliningtrendfromonedecadetoanother:itwas2.44percentduring197273/1983,2.02percentduringthenextten year period and 1.84 per cent during 199394/200405 (Table1). In between, thesedecadalperiods,somefluctuationswerenotedinshorterperiodsoffiveyears.Ofthese,asharp rise inemploymentgrowthduring20002005 to2.81per centover1.00per centduring 199394/200405 is most striking. The most favourable interpretation of thisupturn in employmentgrowth inpost2000period is that the teething troublesof theeconomicreformswhich ledtoslowgrowthofemployment initiallywereoverby2000andglobalisationstartedhavingitsbeneficialeffectonemploymentwiththestartofthemillennium.ThefactsthatGDPgrowthwasnobetterwas,infactlowerduring20002005 than during 19942000, thatmost employment growth recorded during the later

Table1GrowthofEmployment(UPSS)

Sector 7273/7778

7778/83

83/8788

8788/9394

9394/992000

9900/0405

0405/0910

7273/83

83/9394

9394/0405

9900/0910

PrimarySector 1.78 1.56 0.28 2.16 0.05 1.40 1.63 1.70 1.35 0.67 0.13Mining&Quarrying

4.36 7.14 5.34 1.69 2.11 2.41 3.00 5.92 3.24 0.08 2.70

Manufacturing 5.43 3.08 4.66 0.05 1.62 5.06 1.06 4.28 2.00 3.17 1.95Utilities 2.78 12.39 7.21 4.37 5.89 3.22 1.02 7.86 5.58 1.86 2.11Construction 1.67 6.84 13.91 0.11 6.38 8.18 11.29 4.43 5.67 7.19 9.72SecondarySector

4.78 3.95 6.44 0.19 2.44 5.83 3.46 4.43 2.82 3.97 4.64

Trade,Hostellingetc.

6.40 2.87 3.96 3.62 6.28 4.01 1.10 4.62 3.77 5.24 2.54

Transport&Communicationetc.

6.21 5.36 3.02 3.67 5.09 5.23 2.14 5.88 3.39 5.16 3.68

Financing,Insurance,Realestate&businessservices

6.84 7.68 1.41 5.24 5.28 9.62 5.77 7.43 3.58 7.23 7.68

Community,social&personalservices

3.24 3.01 0.31 6.68 1.48 2.71 0.99 3.18 3.91 0.40 1.85

TertiarySector 4.86 3.46 2.11 5.03 2.85 4.08 1.59 4.21 3.77 3.41 2.83AllNonAgricultural

4.82 3.67 4.09 2.82 2.68 4.81 2.41 4.30 3.36 3.64 3.61

Total 2.61 2.19 1.53 2.39 1.04 2.81 0.22 2.44 2.02 1.84 1.50Source:OwnestimatesbasedonvariousroundsofNSSdataonemploymentandunemployment.

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period was in the informal sector of which a large part was as selfemploymentinagriculture, and, organised sector employment, in fact, saw an absolute decline,however, raise doubts about the high employment growth during 200005 beingdemandledandproductive.Avirtualstagnationinemploymentduring200405/200910asrevealedbythelatestroundofNSSOsurveycastsfurtherdoubtontheveracityofthe200405estimates.Wewillturntothisaspectlaterwhiledealinginsomedetailwiththeissueofemploymentgrowthinthepostreformperiod.

III.GrowthinEmploymentandGDPThe longterm trendofadecline in the rateofemploymentgrowth is,however,a factthat can not be ignored. What is particularly intriguing is that this decline hasaccompaniedacceleration in therateofeconomicgrowth.ThuswhenGDPgrewat4.7per centperannumduring197273 to 1983 (Table2), employmentgrowthwas2.4per

Table2GrowthofGDP(AtConstant19992000Price):197273/200910

Sector 7273/7778

7778/83

83/8788

8788/9394

9394/9900

9900/0405

0405/0910

7273/83

83/9394

9394/0405

9900/0910


4.94 7.28 5.58 6.51 5.20 4.80 4.11 6.85 6.14 5.02 4.46


4.91 4.38 4.98 5.59 6.62 6.74 8.82 5.09 5.35 6.68 7.78

Trade,Hotellingetc.

6.02 4.53 5.65 5.54 9.29 7.87 9.07 5.74 5.58 8.64 8.47

Transport&Comm.etc.

6.06 5.72 6.69 5.60 8.66 12.90 16.12 6.48 6.03 10.57 14.50


4.39 6.23 8.77 9.28 7.78 6.71 12.30 5.95 9.07 7.29 9.47

Community,socialandpersonalservices

3.21 4.80 6.85 5.21 7.83 5.00 8.18 4.49 5.86 6.53 6.58


4.79 4.85 6.17 6.08 7.74 7.30 10.41 5.31 6.12 7.54 8.84

Total 4.60 3.92 3.99 5.65 6.51 5.98 9.08 4.66 4.98 6.27 7.52Source:OwnestimatesbasedonNationalAccountsStatistics,CSO,variousyears.

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cent;GDPgrowth increased to5percent;butemploymentgrowthdeclined to2.0percentduring1983/199394;during199394/200405GDPgrowthacceleratedto6.3percent,butemploymentgrowthfurtherdeclinedto1.8percentandduringthe200405/200910quinquinnium,whenGDP growthwas ashigh as 9per cent employment grew at aninsignificant rate of 0.22 per cent! The declining trend in the employment content ofgrowth is quite clearly seen in terms of the values of employment elasticity (ratio ofemployment growth to growth in value added) in Table3. It was 0.52 during 197273/1983 declined to 0.41 in the next tenyear period and further to 0.29 during 199394/2004/05.During200405/200910,itdeclinedtoalmostzero.

Table3EmploymentElasticitywithrespecttoGDP

Sector 7273/7778

7778/83

83/8788

8788/9394

9394/9900

9900/0405

0405/0910

7273/83

83/9394

9394/0405

9900/0910


0.88 0.98 0.96 0.26 0.41 0.50 0.73 0.86 0.53 0.02 0.61

Manufacturing 1.12 0.61 1.01 0.01 0.24 0.78 0.11 0.78 0.41 0.47 0.25Utilities 0.38 1.81 0.78 0.52 0.84 0.76 0.14 1.00 0.64 0.32 0.37Construction 0.37 5.09 3.23 0.02 1.00 0.89 1.22 1.44 1.16 0.94 1.06SecondarySector 0.97 0.90 1.29 0.03 0.37 0.87 0.39 0.87 0.53 0.59 0.60Trade,Hotelingetc.

1.06 0.63 0.70 0.65 0.68 0.51 0.12 0.81 0.67 0.61 0.30


1.03 0.94 0.45 0.66 0.59 0.41 0.13 0.91 0.56 0.49 0.25


1.56 1.23 0.16 0.56 0.68 1.43 0.47 1.25 0.39 0.99 0.81


1.01 0.63 0.05 1.28 0.19 0.54 0.12 0.71 0.67 0.06 0.28


1.01 0.76 0.66 0.46 0.35 0.66 0.23 0.81 0.55 0.48 0.41

Total 0.57 0.56 0.38 0.42 0.16 0.47 0.02 0.52 0.41 0.29 0.20Source:OwnestimatesbasedonvariousroundsofNSSdataonemploymentandunemployment

andNationalAccountsStatistics,CSO,variousyears.

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IV.EmploymentGrowthinMajorEconomicActivitySectors Employment growth in the secondary sector, consisting of mining, manufacturing,electricity,waterandgas,andconstruction,hasbeenrelativelyhigh, infactthehighestamong the three sectors, during the period under study, 197273 to 200910. It hasdeclinedoverthelongerperiodwithsomefluctuationsovertheshorterperiods,buthasshown a significant increase during 19942005. Even during 200405/200910, whenoverallemploymenthasvirtuallystagnated, ithasgrownataround3.5percent in thesecondary sector. Employment growth in the tertiary or services sector has also beenrelativelyhighbuthasconsistentlydeclinedoverthethreeperiodsof10yearseachsince197273.Growthofemploymentintheprimarysector,asexpected,hasbeenthelowestandseen thesharpestdecline. Ithas, in fact, turnednegative inrecentyears.SlowanddeclininggrowthofemploymentinagricultureisaresultbothofslowanddecliningrateofGDPgrowthandadeclineinemploymentelectricity.Inthesecondarysector,ahighemployment growthdespitemoderate rates ofGDP growth has been possibledue torelativelyhighand risingemploymentelasticity.But in the tertiarysector,evenahighGDPgrowthhasnotbeenabletomaintainahighgrowthinemploymentduetoasteepdeclineinemploymentelasticity.

Letus lookat theemploymentperformanceofdifferentactivitieswithin thesecondaryand tertiary sectors (Table1). Within the secondary or industry sector, constructionexperiencedarelativelyhighand increasingrateofemploymentgrowth;itwasashighasoversevenpercentduring19942005,almostsimilartoitsGDPgrowth(Table2).Ithasmaintained 11 per cent employment growth during the 200405/200910, when totalemployment has virtually stagnated. Employment growth in manufacturing has alsobeenmoderatelyhigh,andafterdecliningduring1983/199394overtheearliertenyearperiod,itregisteredanincreaseinthenextperiod,19942005.Butitexperiencedadeclinein employment during 200405/200910. Employment elasticity in manufacturing hasbeen relativelyhighexcept in the lastperiod (Table3).Miningandutilities (electricity,waterandgas), theminoractivitiescontributing0.56%and0.26%to totalemployment,have each experienced a decline in employment during 19942005, after registering ahighgrowth inearlierperiods.Both registeredasmallpositivegrowth inemploymentduring200405/200910,withrelativelylowGDPgrowth.

Intheservicessector,tradeandtransporthaveshownthebestemploymentperformance,bothregisteringagrowthofover5percentduring19942005,afterhavingseenadeclineingrowth rate, sharper in transport than in trade,during198394,over197383.ThesetrendsareinlinewithrespectiveGDPgrowthratesinthetwoactivities,thoughthedipinemploymentgrowth isdeeper than inGDPgrowth,while the jump inemploymentgrowthislowerthaninGDPgrowth.Thusintransport,forexample,whileGDPgrowthdeclinedfrom6.5to6percent,employmentgrowthdeclinedfrom5.8to3.5percent;butwhen inthenextperiodGDPgrowthrosesharplyfrom6to10.5percent,employment

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growthincreasedfrom3.5to5.3percent.Financialservices,however,haverecordedthehighest increase in employment over the longer period 19832005 except during1983/199394.Evenduring200405/200910, thissubsectorofserviceshasregisteredanemployment growth of about 6 per cent, while trade and transport subsectorsexperiencedonlyabout1 to2percentgrowth inemployment.Thus itappears thatallsubsectorsof the tertiary sectorwith thepossible exceptionof community, socialandpersonal serviceshave shown reasonablyhighpotential foremploymentgeneration. Itmust,however,benotedthatinmostsubsectorsofservices,whileGDPhasseenahighand increasing growth rate; employment growth has been on a declining rate.Employmentelasticityhas,therefore,declinedsharplyfrom0.81during197273/1983to0.30during19992000/200910intrade,from0.91to0.25intransport,from0.71to0.28incommunity, social and personal, services, although in financial services it increasedduring199394/200910.

V.EmploymentGrowthinRuralandUrbanAreasIt is interesting tonote thatwhile in aggregateurban areashave experienced amuchfaster growth than the rural areas; employment has seen significantly high growth inrural areas in most nonagricultural activities. But since agriculture accounts for anoverwhelminglymajorshareinruraleconomyandgrowthinemploymentinagriculturehasbeensmall,overallemploymentgrowthturnsouttobelowinruralareas.Aggregateemployment in ruralareasgrewata rateof2.1per centduring197273/83,but sawadeclineto1.7and1.4percentinthetwosubsequentperiods(Table4).Ithasdeclinedinabsolute terms during 200405/200910 at a rate of 1.65 per cent per annum. Urbanemploymentgrowthhasbeenhigherinallperiods,butsawdeclineingrowthratefrom4.1during197273/83to3.2percentduring1983/9394recoveringslightlyto3.3percentduring the next period. In the quenquinnium 200510, urban areas recorded anemploymentgrowthof1.8percentperannum(Table5).

Asmentionedabove,employmentperformanceof the ruralareashasbeenbetter thanthat of the urban areas in so far as the nonagricultural activities are concerned.Employmentinallnonagriculturalactivitiestogethergrewat4.58percentperannuminruralareasand4.08percentperannuminurbanareasduring197273/1983;growthratesforruralandurbanareasweresimilarat3.65during19942005.Onlyduring1983/9394urbangrowth ratewashigherat3.5as compared to3.2 for ruralareas.Again,during200510, rural areas did better than the urban areas in growth of nonagriculturalemployment. In general, the pattern of employment growth in terms of rates ofemploymentgrowthindifferentactivitiesisfoundtobesimilarinruralandurbanareas.Construction registered the fastestgrowthand thegrowth ratehas increasedover theyears in both rural and urban areas. During 199394/200405, employment growth inconstructionhasbeenmuchhigherat8.3percentperannuminruralthaninurbanareasat5.6percent.Transportrankssecondand trade third inemploymentgrowth inrural

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areas.Inurbanareastradehasperformedbetterthantransport,butbothhaveregisteredhighemploymentgrowth.Financialserviceshadanemploymentgrowthof6.30percentinruraland7.54percentperannuminurbanareas.Otherserviceshavehadthelowestgrowth inemployment inbothareas; ithasbeenparticularly low,0.64percent inurbanand 0.25per cent in rural areas,during theperiod, 19942005.The twominor activitiesmining andutilities saw adecline in employment inurban areas andutilities in ruralareas during 19942005 after growing fast in the earlier two decades, in both areas.Despiteadecline inaggregateemployment,constructionemploymentgrewat13.6percent per annum in rural areas during 200405/2010. In urban areas construction andfinancialserviceswere thebestperformerswithanemploymentgrowthrateof6.6percenteachduringthisperiod.

Table4GrowthofRuralEmployment(UPSS)

Sector 7273/7778

7778/83

83/8788

8788/9394

9394/9900

9900/0405

0405/0910

7273/83

83/9394

9394/0405

9900/0910


5.82 6.11 5.58 1.09 1.25 2.11 5.21 6.09 2.99 0.26 3.65


4.71 4.08 7.57 0.53 2.55 6.03 4.65 4.47 2.87 4.11 5.34

Trade,Hotellingetc.

7.62 3.19 4.06 3.37 3.76 6.23 0.66 5.38 3.67 4.88 3.41


6.77 8.07 5.13 3.79 6.75 6.33 2.58 7.60 4.36 6.56 4.44


10.62 15.32 7.21 4.45 4.27 8.41 2.07 13.33 0.72 6.13 5.20


4.08 2.26 0.40 5.99 0.99 1.38 0.16 3.19 3.56 0.08 0.77


5.23 3.82 4.91 1.98 2.32 5.25 2.83 4.58 3.22 3.64 4.03

Total 2.21 1.89 1.19 2.12 0.67 2.29 0.34 2.08 1.72 1.40 0.96Source:OwnestimatesbasedonvariousroundsofNSSdataonemploymentandunemployment.

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Table5GrowthofUrbanEmployment(UPSS)

Sector 7273/7778

7778/83

83/8788

8788/9394

9394/9900

9900/0405

0405/0910

7273/83

83/9394

9394/0405

9900/0910

PrimarySector 5.01 3.27 0.42 1.99 3.48 4.47 1.17 4.18 1.32 0.05 1.61Mining&Quarrying 1.54 9.23 4.88 2.79 3.69 3.00 1.87 5.61 3.68 0.70 0.53Manufacturing 5.51 2.65 5.01 0.26 1.63 6.05 0.45 4.08 1.97 3.61 3.21Utilities 8.86 24.12 4.73 3.77 4.16 4.05 0.93 7.29 4.18 0.51 2.47Construction 2.90 7.62 5.91 6.26 6.29 4.68 6.60 5.45 6.11 5.56 5.64SecondarySector 4.86 3.80 5.13 1.04 2.32 5.60 2.01 4.39 2.77 3.80 3.79Trade,Hotellingetc. 5.50 2.61 3.88 3.82 8.08 2.53 1.43 4.05 3.85 5.52 1.98Transport&Communicationetc.

5.96 4.02 1.78 3.59 3.94 4.36 1.77 5.04 2.81 4.13 3.06


5.73 4.45 5.43 5.49 5.59 9.96 6.67 5.16 5.47 7.55 8.30

Community,socialandpersonalservices

2.52 3.66 0.24 7.24 1.87 3.75 1.58 3.17 4.18 0.65 2.66

TertiarySector 4.23 3.38 2.10 5.32 3.37 3.78 2.06 3.86 3.93 3.56 2.92AllNonAgricultural 4.47 3.54 3.33 3.61 2.99 4.44 2.04 4.06 3.49 3.65 3.23Total 4.55 3.50 2.91 3.40 2.30 4.44 1.78 4.08 3.19 3.27 3.10Source:OwnestimatesbasedonvariousroundsofNSSdataonemploymentandunemployment.

The fact that thenonfarmemploymenthas registereda fastgrowth inemployment inruralareas,evenfasterthaninurbanareas,formostoftheperiodunderconsideration,has significant implications for growth of rural employment in future. It is, therefore,interestingandusefultoprobethestatusanddynamicsoftheruralnonfarmactivitiesinsomedetail.

VI.EmploymentinRuralNonFarmSectorItneedstobenotedthatwithaboutonethirdcontribution toemploymentandover60percentinGDP,thenonfarmsectorisnowanimportantsegmentoftheruraleconomyofIndia.Andithasshownsignificantdynamism,insofarasitsgrowth,bothintermsofemploymentandoutputhasbeennotonlyfasterthaninagriculturebutalsofasterthaninurbanareas.Asaresult, itsshare inruralemployment increasedfrom15percent in197273 to27percent in200405.Itfurther increased to32percent in200910.InruralNDPtheshareofnonfarmsectorincreasedfrom28percentin197071to49percentin19992000 and 62 per cent in 200405 (Table6). There have been large changes in thestructureofNDPandemployment.ShareofmanufacturingintotalruralNDPincreasedfrom5.9percentin197071toover8percentin199394andabout12percentin200405.TheshareofconstructioninruralNDPincreasedfrom3.5percentin197071to7.9per

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centin200405.Theshareoftransportthatwasjust1.3percentin197071,roseto5.8percentin200405.Shareoftradeincreasedfrom2.7to15percent;makeitthelargestnonagriculturalactivity inruralareasandofcommunity,socialandpersonalservices from6.4to8.3percent.

Table6SectoralDistributionofRuralNDP(PerCent)

Sector 7071 8081 9394 9900 0405Agricultureandallied 72.37 64.36 56.99 51.42 38.34Mining&Quarrying 0.85 1.24 2.60 1.82 3.70Manufacturing 5.87 9.16 8.15 11.13 11.86Utilities 0.37 0.56 0.88 1.43 0.66Construction 3.47 4.05 4.61 5.59 7.91Trade,hotels&restaurants 2.72 6.68 7.77 8.72 14.98Transport,storage&communication 1.26 1.32 3.41 4.03 5.81Banking&Insurance 0.54 0.81 1.73 1.93 1.96Realestateandbusinessservices 6.18 4.55 4.26 4.60 6.46Community,Social&PersonalServices 6.36 7.27 9.58 9.35 8.31Totalruralnonfarm 27.63 35.64 43.01 48.58 61.66Total 100 100 100 100 100Source:OwnestimatesbasedonNationalAccountsStatistics,CSO,variousyears.

According to the NSSO estimates rural nonfarm activities employed 28.51 millionworkersin197273;thenumberwentupto56.11millionby198788andto93.53millionin200405.AccordingtotheNSSOsurveyof200910,thenumberstoodat107.51millioninthatyear.Whilethegrowthrateofemploymentinthetotaleconomyandruralareasasawholedeclined intheperiod19942005overtheearlier10yearperiod,intheruralnonfarm sector, it showed an increase. And when during 200405/200910, totalemployment stagnated and rural employment declined, rural nonagriculturalemploymentshowedasignificantgrowthof2.8percentperannum. Itmaybearguedthatahighgrowthof employment innonfarmactivities couldhavebeen inducedbydecliningemploymentopportunities inagriculture,whichgrewatslowrate,slower(at0.87percentduring19942005ascompared to1.39percent)duringpreceding10yearperiod.Andinthissense,thegrowthofemploymentinnonfarmsectormaybeseenasdrivenbydistressinagriculture.Asignificantlyhigherproductivityperworker inthenonfarm activities than inagriculture (the ratiowas4.4:1 in200405,according to thesectoral distribution of NDP and workers), however, casts serious doubt on such ahypothesis and suggests that employment increase in rural nonfarm activities wasdrivenbyproductiveemploymentopportunityarisinginthem.

Letusbrieflylookatthepatternofemploymentintheruralnonfarmsectorintermsofsharesofmajoractivitiesandhow theyhavechanged in recentyears.First, itappearsthat thenonfarm segmentof the rural economywasmoreor less equallydistributed

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between the secondary (industry) and tertiary (services) sectors in terms of shares ofemployment,theformeraccountingfor49.5andthelatter50.5percentin200405.(Table7)

Table7CompositionofRuralNonFarmEmployment(UPSS)

Sector 9394 9900 0405 0910Agriculture 78.43 76.23 72.58 67.93Nonagriculture 21.57 23.77 27.42 32.07DistributionwithinnonagricultureMining&Quarrying 2.58 2.09 1.79 2.01Manufacturing 32.46 31.15 29.47 22.32Utilities 1.06 0.55 0.47 0.43Construction 11.02 13.96 17.81 29.32SecondarySector 47.12 47.74 49.53 54.08Trade,Hotellingetc. 19.86 21.59 22.62 20.33Transport&Communicationetc. 6.71 8.66 9.11 9.00Financing,Insurance,Realestate&businessservices

1.36 1.52 1.76 1.70

Community,socialandpersonalservices 24.96 20.49 16.98 14.89TertiarySector 52.88 52.26 50.47 45.92Source:OwnestimatesbasedonvariousroundsofNSSdataonemploymentandunemployment.

Therehasbeenanincreaseintheshareofsecondaryanddeclineintheshareoftertiaryactivitiesduring200405/200910,with formernowaccounting for54and latter46percent.Manufacturingconstitutes,byfar,thelargestsegmentoftheruralnonfarmsector,but itsshare inemploymenthasdeclined from32percent in199394 to29percent in200405,and further to22percent in200910.Constructiongainedsignificantlyraisingitssharefrom11percentin199394to18percentin200405.In200910,ithasjumpedto29 per cent,making the largest nonfarm activity in the rural areas.Among services,trade constitutes the largest, and among all divisions, the second largest, activityaccountingfor20percentofnonfarmemploymentin200910,downfrom23percentin200405,backtothesameshareasin199394.Transporthasgainedsubstantiallyfrom7percent in199394 to9percent in200910.Community,socialandpersonnelserviceshaveseenasteepdeclineintheirshareinemploymentfrom25percentin199394to17percentin200405andto15percentin200910.

Constructionasnotedabovehasemergedasthelargestruralnonfarmactivityintermsofemployment,nowaccounting forover29percentof totalnonfarmemployment in200910.Ithasregisteredafastincrease,raisingitssharefrom11percentin199394and18percentin200405.Itisnotclearhowmuchofitisintermsofhousingandhowmuchin infrastructure.But it is likely thata largepartof itmaybe inpublicprogrammesofinfrastructurebuilding includingunderMahatmaGandhiNationalRuralEmploymentGuaranteeAct(MGNREA).Thatagoodpartofitmusthavetakenplaceinbuildingroadconnectivity is also reflected in relatively sharp increase in employment in transport:

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from6.7percenttoover9percentduring199394/200910.Trade,however,isthelargestnonfarmactivityinruralareasintermsofcontributiontoruralGNP,witha15percentshare,havingincreasedfrom8percentin199394and9percentin19992000.Itsshareinruralemployment,has,however,notincreased.

Manufacturingisthesecondlargestsegmentoftheruralnonfarmsectoraccountingfor22per cent of employment. In termsofNDP also, it is the second largest segment: itaccountedforoverabout20percentforruralnonfarmNDP.Eventhoughemploymentgrowthinmanufacturinghasbeenlowerthanoverallemploymentgrowthinruralnonfarmsectorduring19942010andhasthuslostitspositionoflargestnonfarmsector,itisnoteworthy that itsshare in ruralNDPhassignificantly increasedover theyears. It is,therefore,reasonabletoseetheruralmanufacturingasanimportantsourceofproductiveemployment in rural areas. It must, however, be seen to consist not only of villageindustries,buttoincludesuchmodernindustrieswhichhavecomparativeadvantageintermsofrawmaterialand labourinruralareas.Itisestimatedthatindustriesbasedonagricultural rawmaterial or rural skills account for 83 per cent of all rural industrialenterprisesand78percentofall ruralmanufacturingemployment (SarkarandKaran,2005) and they should obviously become the focus for a strategy of employmentexpansioninruralmanufacturingactivities.

VII.EmploymentGrowthintheOrganisedSector:ReversalofaDecliningTrend?

In aggregate, growth rate of employment in the organised sector has registered acontinuousdecline fromonequinquennialperiod toanotherduring197273 to200405(Table8).Ithaspromptedcharacterizationofgrowthinorganisedsector,particularly,inmanufacturing,during theperiod 198182 to 200405 as jobless (see e.g.Kannan andRaveendran, 2009) It was 2.7 per cent during 197273/7778; for the subsequent fourconsecutive subperiods the figures are 2.2, 1.4, 1.1 and 0.4 and turnednegative (1.1)during 20002005. An absolute decline in employment during 20002005 has beencommon tomost divisions of economic activity except agriculture,mining, trade andfinancialservices.Financialserviceshavethehighestgrowthrateinallsubperiodssince197883andsawanaccelerationfromonepercentperannumduring19942000to3.1percentduring200005.Employment in tradehasalso increasedata reasonablyhigh rate(2.5%)duringthisperiod.

Decline in employment during 20002005 has been faster in public sector than in theorganisedprivatesector;intheformer,alldivisionsofactivityexceptmining,tradeandfinancialserviceshaveseenadecline,inthelatter,allexceptmining,manufacturingandconstruction experienced a growth in employment. In the midst of overall decline,employmentinfinancialservicesintheorganisedprivatesectorgrewatarateof7.9percentperannum,thatintransportat4percent,andintradeat2.6percent.

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Table8GrowthofEmploymentinOrganisedSector

Sector 73/78 78/83 83/88 88/94 94/00 04/05 05/08PublicSector0 Agriculture,huntingetc. 15.5 5.4 3.1 0.3 1.0 0.7 5.41 Miningandquarrying 11.7 3.1 1.6 1.0 1.6 1.9 13.02&3 Manufacturing 7.1 3.8 2.7 0.8 2.5 5.9 3.44 Electricity,gasandwater 3.9 3.8 3.3 1.7 0.1 1.9 1.35 Construction 0.4 2.3 1.6 0.7 1.1 3.6 1.96 Wholesaleandretailtrade 27.6 7.3 3.3 2.5 0.2 2.5 1.17 Transport,storage&communication 1.8 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.2 2.88 Finance,insuranceandrealestateetc 8.5 4.7 2.5 0.3 1.7 1.39 Community,social&personalservices 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.6 0.5 1.1 0.8 Total 3.8 2.6 2.2 1.0 0.1 1.4 0.7PrivateSector0 Agriculture,huntingetc. 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.4 1.7 4.61 Miningandquarrying 12.7 1.1 5.0 1.4 3.6 0.5 20.32&3 Manufacturing 1.0 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.6 2.5 1.34 Electricity,gasandwater 5.5 1.7 2.1 0.4 0.4 3.6 18.45 Construction 14.0 3.9 6.0 0.3 1.9 3.0 12.26 Wholesaleandretailtrade 2.5 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.6 3.27 Transport,storage&communication 5.0 0.7 2.9 1.6 3.8 4.0 2.48 Finance,insuranceandrealestateetc 2.8 2.8 2.9 4.1 7.9 24.79 Community,social&personalservices 0.6 2.9 1.7 2.1 1.4 1.1 3.2 Total 0.6 1.4 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.5 3.8Total=Public+Private0 Agriculture,huntingetc. 5.9 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.8 1.21 Miningandquarrying 5.2 2.6 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.7 13.52&3 Manufacturing 2.3 2.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 3.2 0.44 Electricity,gasandwater 3.3 3.7 3.3 1.6 0.2 1.6 2.25 Construction 2.0 1.9 1.2 0.6 1.0 3.5 1.16 Wholesaleandretailtrade 13.3 1.9 1.4 1.6 1.1 2.5 1.87 Transport,storage&communication 1.6 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.1 2.68 Finance,insuranceandrealestateetc 2.7 7.3 4.3 2.6 1.0 3.1 5.79 Community,social&personalservices 2.4 2.5 2.0 1.6 0.6 0.7 0.2 Total 2.7 2.2 1.4 1.1 0.4 1.1 0.7Source:OwnestimatesbasedonEconomicSurvey,variousyears.

It is interesting tonote that therehasbeen a reversalof the trendof adecline intotalorganised sector employment since theyear 200506.Overall employment intheorganisedsectorsawapositivegrowthof0.7percentperannumduring200508, fastestof thisat5.7percentwas in the financialservices followedby tradeat1.8percent, leavingoutanextraordinarilyhigh rateof13.5percent in theminorsector of mining. In the public sector all activities except mining experienced adecline, with an overall rate of 0.7 per cent per year. In the organised private

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sector,employmentgrowthwaspositiveandhighat3.8percent:financialservicesregistered a growth rate of as high as 24.7 per cent and construction of 12.2 percent. If thisupturn inemploymentgrowth continues, theorganisedprivate sectorcanbeviewed as an important sourceofnew jobs in comingyears,andwithin itfinancial services, trade, construction, transport, other services and evenmanufacturingwhichinearlieryearsshowedlimitedemploymentpotential,canbeexpectedtoplayimportantrole.

VIII.EmploymentGrowthinManufacturing:RoleofExportGrowth

Rate of employment growth in manufacturing sector as a wholeincluding bothorganisedandorganisedsegmentsasnotedearlier,hasbeenreasonablyhighoverthelongperiod.(See:Table1).Employmentinmanufacturinggrewat4.3percentperannumduring 197273/1983; the growth rate fell to around 2 per cent during 19831994, butacceleratedto3.2percentduring200005.Ithasdeclinedduring200405/200910,butstillturns out to be around 2 per cent during 20002010. Different product groups haveobviously shown different rates of employment growth (Table9). For examining theproductsgrowthwisegrowthinemployment,letusconcentrateontheperiodsince1983.Forthewholeperiod19832005,employmentgrowthrateinmanufacturingwas2.7percentperannum.

Whatare theproductgroups thathaveexperiencedhighratesofemploymentgrowth?Fortheentireperiodof19832005,rubber,plasticandcoalproducts,textileproductsandleatherproductswere thebestperformerswithover4percentannualaveragegrowthrate of employment. Machinery, transport equipment, chemical products and paperproductswereclosesecondwithemploymentgrowthratebetween3.5and4.0percent.Basicmetalsandwoodproductswerenotfarbehindwithgrowthratesbetween3.0and3.5percent.

Mostindustriessawanaccelerationinemploymentgrowthintheperiod19942005over198394. Fastest acceleration was seen in textile products (from 2.95% to 11.46%),followedby leatherproducts (from1.08% to7.20%),chemicalproducts (from 2.28% to9.38%), transport equipment (from 0.36% to 6.96%), leather products (from 1.08% to7.20%) andbasicmetals (from 0.19% to 6.10%).Rubber,plasticand coalproductsandfoodproducts,ontheotherhand,sawasharpdecelerationinemploymentgrowth:from17.87percentto5.39percentinthecaseofformerandfrom2.90to0.59percentinthecaseoflatterproductgroup.

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Table9GrowthofManufacturing(Organised&Unorganised)Employment:1983/200405

NIC,1987Code

Description 8384/9394 9394/0405 8384/0405

2021 FoodProducts 2.90 0.59 1.0622 Beverages,etc. 2.90 2.63 2.7623+24+25 Cotton,Wool,Juteetc 1.37 1.12 0.0626 TextileProducts 2.95 11.46 4.3527 WoodProducts 1.91 4.17 3.0928 PaperProducts 2.20 5.25 3.7929 LeatherProducts 1.08 7.20 4.2430 ChemicalProducts 2.28 9.38 3.6631 Rubber,Plastic,CoalProductsetc 17.87 5.39 5.0532 NonmetallicMineralProducts 1.00 1.44 1.2333 BasicMetalInd. 0.19 6.10 3.2534 MetalProducts 2.89 2.05 2.4435+36 Machinetool&Elect.Machinery 3.90 3.97 3.9437 TransportEquipment 0.36 6.96 3.7638 OtherManufacturing 5.30 0.03 2.5139+97 RepairServices 6.79 1.45 3.95 AllIndustries* 2.27 3.12 2.71Note:*Estimateofallindustriesrelatetototalofindustrieslistedinthetable.Source:AsinTable1.

Hasemploymentgrowthinmanufacturingindustriesbeenrelatedwithexportgrowthofdifferentcommodities?Asexportshaveplayedaveryimportantroleingrowthinrecentyearsandtheshareofmanufacturedgoodshasincreased(from65%in199091to70%in200910)itisplausibletohypothesisethatmostexportswouldbebasedoncomparativelabour advantage and, therefore, fast export growth would lead to rapid growth inemployment in the exportoriented sectors. It is observed that exports ofmost of theproducts inwhichemploymentgrowthhasacceleratedhavealsogrownfast(except,ofcourse, in the year 200910when therewas a decline in exports, in aggregate and inindividualproductcategories).Thusexportsofchemicalsandchemicalproductsgrewat20percentperannumduring1980s,13percentperannumduringthe1990sand22percentperannumduring200105.Exportsof this sectorhavegrown fastduring200510alsoandmaintainedapositivegrowthevenin200910,whenotherproductsregisteredadecline inexports.Machinery (engineeringgoods)hadexportgrowth ratesof9.8,15.7and25.4percentrespectivelyduringtheearlierthreeperiodsandhasmaintainedhighexport growth in all years after 2005, except in 200910. Figures for textiles products(readymadegarments)were13and11percentduringtheearliertwoperiods,thoughitfell toa lowof4percentduring200005.Since then ithasshownhighbut fluctuatinggrowthinexportstill200910whenadeclinetookplace.(Table10)

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Table10GrowthofManufacturingExports(MajorItems)(GrowthRates,PerCentPerAnnum)

8191 9000 0105 0506 0607 0708 0809 0910Total 8.3 11.1 17.0 23.4 22.6 28.9 13.6 3.5Mfg.Goods 11.4 11.8 16.9 18.9 19.8 21.8 23.1 5.9LeatherandLeatherProducts

14.7 5.4 5.5 11.1 12.1 13.4 1.5 40.8

Chemicals&ChemicalProducts

20.1 13.0 21.7 17.3 19.1 28.5 15.0 1.8

EngineeringGoods

9.8 15.7 25.4 23.4 38.1 13.5 19.8 12.9

ReadyMadeGarments

12.9 11.1 4.3 20.4 5.7 8.9 12.9 2.1

Textiles 4.6 12.7 * * *Gems&Jewellery

16.0 12.4 16.8 12.8 2.9 23.2 42.1 3.7

*includedingarments.Source:OwnestimatesbasedonEconomicSurvey,variousyears.

It,however,appearsthatahighemploymentgrowthinexportorientedsectorsismostlya resultof fastgrowthofexports,notnecessarilydue to the labour intensivenatureofexportproducts. It is true that textileproductsand leatherproductshaveall the threecharacteristics:thatis,theyarelabourintensive,haveexperiencedrelativelyfastgrowthinexportsandalsohave recordedhighgrowthofemployment.Butchemicalproductsand machinery (engineering goods) also experienced high growth in exports andemploymentbut cannotbe regarded as labour intensive.And rubber,plasticand coalproducts and basic metals both of which saw high employment growth are neitherexportorientednorlabourintensive.Labourintensivecommoditiesaccountedforabouthalf of the total exports in 200304, down from 65 per cent in 199596, duringwhichperiodtheshareofknowledgeintensiveproductsincreasedfrom18to23percentandthatofmediumtechnologyintensiveproductsfrom12to20percent(RIS,2006).Growthrateofexportsoflabourintensiveproductshasbeenaround7percentasagainst19percentinthecaseofmediumtechnologyproductsand14.5percentofknowledgeintensiveproducts (Table11).According toanother study (Veeramani,2012), theshareofcapitalintensiveproductshasincreasedfrom25.4percentin1993to36.6percentin2002andto53.5percent in2010and thatofunskilled labour intensiveproductshasdeclined from27.8per cent in 1993 to 26.3per cent and14.8per cent in2002 and 2010 respectively.Shareofhumancapitalintensiveproductshasincreasedfrom13.4percentin1993to17per cent in 2010 and thatof technology intensiveproducts from 10.2 to 19.4per cent.Thus export growth cannot necessarily be viewed as a special source of employmentgrowth,thoughthereisnodoubtthatitwillbeaccompaniedbygrowthofemploymentasanyothercomponentofeconomicgrowth,ingeneral.

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Table11GrowthandStructureofIndiasMerchandiseExports(199596to200304)

CategoryofExports AnnualGrowth(%) ShareofExports(%)9596 0304

LabourIntensive 7.2 65.0 49.2ResourceIntensive 11.9 3.7 3.7MediumTechnologyIntensive 18.9 12.1 19.8KnowledgeIntensive 14.4 17.9 23.0OtherCommodities 31.9 1.0 4.0Source:RIS(2006).

IX.EmploymentGrowthinEmergingServicesTheservicessectorisnowthedominantpartoftheIndianeconomyaccountingforabout59percentofGrossNationalProduct.ItsperformanceinemploymentgenerationhasnotbeenasspectacularasinitscontributiontoGDP.Employmentinthissectorhasgrownatanaverageofabout3.5percentperannumoveralongerperiodofabout40years,thusraisingitsshareintotalemploymentfromaround15percentin197273to26percentin200910. In the latest ten years period for which data are available, i.e. 20002010,employmentintheservicessectorgrewatarateof3.6percentperannum,asagainsttheaggregate employment growth of 1.5 per cent. As already noted, all activities in thesector, trade, transport and finance except community social and personal services,registeredover2.5percentgrowthrateofemployment.

Two service activities, namely InformationTechnology (IT) andTourismhave attractedspecial attention of policy makers as source of rapid expansion of employmentopportunities.Theformer, thoughstillasmallcontributor tototalemployment,hasbeengrowing at exponential rate. It is not possible to have an independent estimate ofemployment in the IT sector as it does not feature as an item in official data onemployment.Tourismalsodoesnotconstituteasectorasitismadeupofvariousactivitieswhicharepartsofdifferentsectorsintheclassificationofeconomicactivity.Inviewoftheiremerging importance,we attempthere some estimation andassessmentof employmentgenerationinthesesectors,utilisinglimiteddatathatareavailableorcanbederived.

Information Technology Sector consists of two main segments: information technologyservices (ITS) known as the software services and information technology enabledservices(ITeS)alsooftenreferredtoasbusinessprocessoutsourcing(BPO)Asmentionedabove, the official data collection system does not distinctly and fully capture theemployment situation in the various facets of IT activity. Employment statistics fromDirectorate General of Employment and Training (DGET) ofMinistry of Labour andEmployment (MoLE) reports employment under the NIC Code 892: computer andrelatedsector,butitscoverageislimitedtotheorganisedsector.In199798,forexample,

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employmentunder thiscategorywasreported tobe36071,constituting0.3percentallemploymentinthesectorscoveredbyDGET.Itmustbenoted,however,thatithadmorethandoubledinashortperiodofthreeyears,fromafigureof17686andfromashareof0.06percentin199495.Thusthoughminisculeinsize,itwasgrowingveryfast.NSSOestimatewhichincludesbothorganisedandunorganisedsegmentoftheITSsectorwas2,29,000 workers for the year 19992000 representing 0.3 per cent of total urbanemployment.Employment in the ITeS is likely to be included in the sectors inwhichthese services are provided e.g., banking, education, trade etc. Thus even the NSSOestimatesdonotfullyaccountforemploymentinIT.

TheNationalAssociationofSoftwareandServiceCompanies(NASSCOM),thesectorspromotional body, has been collecting information on different aspects, includingemployment,ofthesector,onthebasisofsurveyamongallsoftwarecompanieslistedbythem.TheirestimateoftheITsoftwareandservicesprofessionalsemployedin19992000was2,42,000withanother42,000estimated for theITeSsector.NASSCOMestimatesofemploymentfortherecentyearsforwhichtheyareavailablearegivenin(Table12).

As can be seen from the figures in the Table12, employment in IT sector has beengrowingveryfast.Itmayalsobenotedthatthegrowthhasbeenparticularlyfastintheexport segment of IT andwithin that in the information technology enabled services(ITeS),oftenreferredtoasBPO.Employmentcoefficientderivedonthebasisofdataonrevenueandemployment fromITcompanieswascomputed tobe29.90employeespermillion US Dollar, (and higher at 69.83 employees in the ITeS segment) for 200304.Applyingthesecoefficientsontheprojectionofoutput,employmentinITisestimatedtobecome36.89lakhsin2012.

Table12EmploymentinITandItsServices,India19992009

Year EmploymentSoftware&ServicesExports Total ShareofExportsinTotal

Ofwhich,ITeS (includingDomestic) (2)/(4)*100199900 152,000 42,000 284,000 53.5200001 232,000 70,000 430,100 53.9200102 276,000 106,000 522,200 52.9200203 385,000 180,000 670,000 56.9200304 512,000 216,000 833,000 61.5200405 706,000 316,000 1,058,000 66.7200506 928,000 415,000 1,293,000 71.8200607 1,243,000 553,000 1,621,000 76.7200708 1,560,000 700,000 2,010,000 77.6200809 1,736,615 789,806 2,236,614 77.6Source:ITIndustryFactSheetbyNASSCOM.

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About threefourths of employment in the IT sector is likely to be in the ITeS exportsegmentalone.AnalternativetothisNASSCOMestimateplacesITemploymentat32.8lakhsin2015.(Paisetal,2006).Ineitherestimate,growthofemploymentisprojectedtobeveryfast.Asetbackinexportsduring200910resultingina42.7percentdeclineinexportsof software services (though exportsofnonsoftware servicesgrewat40.1percent inthatyear),mayweakenthestrengthoftheseoptimisticestimates.Itshouldalsobenotedthattheexportsofsoftwareservicesrecoveredquicklyandgrewat64.5percentduringofAprilSeptember201011,overthesameperiodin200910(GOI,2011,Table7.14,p.173).

GrowthofITsector,particularlyofitsexportsand,therefore,generationofemploymentinthissectorwould,however,bedependentonvariousfactors.Mostimportantofthesefactorsareavailabilityofsufficientnumberofappropriatelyskilledworkerstomeettheemergingglobaldemand,abilityoftheIndianITserviceproviderstomeetcompetitionfromothersparticularlyChinainexportsofservicesingeneralandoflowskillintensiveservices, in particular; capacity to continue competing in BPO exports to Englishlanguagearea,andtocompeteinthenewlyemergingmarketsinnonEnglishlanguageareas; linkages of IT services with rest of the economy particularly with hardwareindustry,which areweak,particularlywhen comparedwithChina and availabilityofMode4exportofservices,namely,temporarymovementofnaturalpersons,which isthreatenedbyincreasingvisarestrictionsbythedevelopedcountries(Paisetal,2006).

Tourism isanotheractivitywhich isseenashaving largepotential forgrowthandalsowithhigh employmentpotential.There are,however,no separatedata available fromofficialsourceseitheronincomeoremploymentgeneratedintourismbecauseitdoesnotfeature as a sector in the classificatory scheme of economic activities. Income andemploymentgeneratedbytourismareaccountedforinsuchdifferentactivitiesashotelsandotheraccommodationunits,restaurants,travelagentsandtouroperators,transportservices, tourist resorts and complexes, entertainment facilities, shopping facilitiesincludingsalesoutletsforcurios,handicrafts,souvenirsetc.,conferenceandconventionfacilities,adventureandrecreationalsportsfacilitiesandguideservices,whichfeatureassectorsandsubsectorsinNationalAccountsStatistics.Itmustbenotedthatonlyapartofincomeandemploymentisgeneratedduetotourisminseveraloftheseactivities.Thereisnobasisonwhich the contributionof tourism couldbedirectly separated from thetotaloutputandemployment inthesecases.It ispossibletoestimatesuchcontributionindirectlyonthebasisofpatternofexpenditurebytourists:totalexpenditurebytouristsonan item is takenas incomearisingoutof tourismandusingemploymentcoefficient(number of persons employed per given volume of output (income)) employmentgeneratedduetotourismintheproductionofthatitemisestimated.Somesurveyshavegeneratedsuchestimatesinthecaseofforeigntourists(e.g.MoT,2006).Sincethepatternofexpenditureofdomestictouristsmayvaryfromthatoftheforeigntourists,estimateshavegenerallybeenmadeonlyofemploymentgenerateddue to foreign tourism.Also

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whileMinistryofTourismmaintainsdataonforeigntouristsonaregularbasis,nosuchdatabaseexistsfordomestictourists.

Accordingtoonestudy,expenditureofonemillionofrupeesbyforeigntouristsinIndiagenerated44.9yearroundjobsin200001,and39.3jobsin200405.Usingsurveydataonper tourist expenditure and applying iton the totalnumberof touristsduringayear,total employmentgeneratedby foreign tourism is estimatedat 4.93million in200001and6.2millionin200405.Assumingthegrowthoftourismreceiptsatthesamerateasduring200001/200405,butadeclining trend inemployment coefficientas seen in thepast,thisstudyhasprojectedemploymentduetoforeigntourisminIndiaat10.7millionin 200910 (Pais, 2006).A decline in the exports of travel (0.9%) and transport (9.9%)servicesin200910would,nodoubt,affecttheseexpectations.Butitmustalsobenotedthataquickrecoveryseemstohaveoccurredreflected ina16percentand33percentgrowth in the export of these items during April September, 2010, over thecorresponding period of earlier year (Economic Survey, 201011). One can, therefore,expect the growth of tourism to accelerate and more visitors coming for reasons ofbusiness,aswellashealth1andeducation,theemergingareasoftourism,and,therefore,theactualemploymentgeneratedtobeevenhigherthanprojectedinfuture.

X.TowardsanEmploymentOrientedGrowthStrategyAstheemploymentchallengethatIndiafacesconsistsbothofcreatingofnew jobsandimprovingthequalityofexisting jobs,a fastereconomicgrowth is thekey tomeetthischallenge.Afastergrowthevenwithrelatively lowemploymentelasticitycangeneratereasonably high employment growthwith significant increase inproductivity.With aviewtomakingemploymentgrowth faster,sectorsandactivitieswithrelativelyhigheremploymentelasticitycouldbetargetedforparticularlyhigheconomicgrowth.Butthecompulsion of raising productivitywith a view to improving employment quality inmajorpart of the economymakes it imperative that economygrows at ahigh rate togenerate therequirednumberofnewemploymentopportunities.Thus thestrategy forcreatingqualityemployment essentially consistsofa strategy fora rapid anddiversifiedeconomicgrowth.

Afastergrowthofagriculturederivedfromgeographicallyandcropwisediversificationisanessential element of such a strategy in the Indian case. Agricultural growth is to beachievednotforaquantitativeincreaseinemploymentbutforaqualitativeimprovementinemploymentofthoseworkinginthefarmsector,throughincreaseinproductivityandincome.Sofarasthenumbersofworkersinagricultureareconcernedoneshouldexpect

1 CIIestimated1,50,000foreignpatientscomingtoIndiafortreatmentin2004(CII,2004).About

2.2 lakhsof foreign tourists,making5percentofall tourists interviewed ina2003 surveyofforeigntouristsreportedhealthandtreatmentasmainpurposeofvisitingIndia(MoT,2003).

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themtodeclineasmoreandmoreofthemmoveouttoothersectors.Manufacturingoffersitselfasthebestcandidateforabsorbingthosemovingoutofagricultureasalsootherjobseekers inrelativelygoodqualityemploymentand, therefore,mustbe theanothermajorsector to be targeted for higher growth. Transport and trade are other sectors withsignificantpotentialforgeneratingproductiveemployment.

A major proportion of workers in nonagricultural economic activities work in theinformalsectorwheretheysufferfroma largequalitydeficit inemployment, intermsoflowproductivity,lowearnings,poorconditionsofworkandlackofsocialprotection.Anumberofmeasurestoimprovethequalityofemploymentofbothselfemployedandwage earners in the informal sector have been suggested some time back by thegovernmentappointedNationalCommission forEnterprises in theUnorganisedSector(NCEUS,2009).Thoseofthemrelatingtoproductivityenhancement,suchasprovisionoftechnologysupport,inputsupply,accesstocreditandmarketingneedtobeadoptedonaprioritybasis.

It is, however, important that employment in the formal sector increases to ensureimprovement in quality of employment on a sustainable basis. Restrictive labour lawshaveoftenbeen identifiedamong the factors thatconstrain increase in investmentandemployment. For example, several studies over the years have concluded thatemployment inorganizedmanufacturingsector in Indiawouldhavebeensignificantlylargeriftheprovisionrelatingtopriorgovernmentpermissionforretrenchment,layoffand closure, under the IndustrialDisputesAct (IDA)was notmade applicable to allenterprises employing 100 or more workers (e.g. Fallon and Lucas, 1991, Besley andBurgess, 2004).World BankDoing BusinessReports classified India as a countrywithstringent regulations, including labour regulations. (For a detailed account of thefindingsofstudiesandreviewsonthesubject,seeWorldBank,2010).Thoughrestrictivelabour lawsdonotget listedamongthemostsevereconstraintsby theemployers, it iswidely agreed, including by the government (See e.g. Economic Survey, 200506,Planning Commission 2008, Vol. III, pp. 4950) that some of the legal provisionsincludingtheabovementionedoneinIDAandrestrictionsintheuseofcontractlabourundertheContractLabourRegulationandAbolitionAct(CLRA),whichspeciallyhinderthe operations of firms that produce primarily to meet fluctuating export orders,constrainexpansionofproductionandemployment.Politicalcompulsionsseemtohavemade the government refrain from taking any initiative to change the law.However,somestateshave takensteps tomodify lawsand rules tomakeemploymentof labourmore flexible. Also, a generally relaxed attitude to implementation has prevailed inrecentyears(SeePapola,etal2008).Infact,inarecentspeech,thePrimeMinisterstatedthat .this view (that the labour laws are unduly protective of labour) has lost itsimportance in recent years as more and more state governments have becomeconsiderablymore flexible in theirapproach to labourrestructuringandrationalization(Speechat44thSessionoftheIndianLabourConference,NewDelhi,14thFebruary2012).

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Somerecentstudies (e.g.Hasan,etal2003,Goldar2011)have found thatstates,havingmadeindustryfriendlychangesinlawsandruleshavehigheremploymentelasticitiesorhaveexperiencedhighergrowthofemploymentintheorganizedmanufacturingsector.There are studieswhich have questioned the findings of the earlier aswell as recentstudies(seee.g.Bhattacharjea,2006andNagraj,2011).Itappears thatrestrictive labourlaws are, but not the most important constraints in expansion of organized sectoremployment.

At the same time, it seems,necessary tobring in changes in the labour law regime inIndia toensureexpansionofand improvement inoverallqualityofemployment.First,IDA provision on prior government permission for retrenchment, layoff and closureneedstoberemovedwithcorrespondingenhancementofcompensationfromthepresent15dayswagesforeachcompletedyearofservice.Second,provisionsofCLRAneedtoberelaxedtopermitmoreflexibleuseofcontractlabourwherelabourisnotrequiredonastablelongtermbasis,while,atthesametime,ensuringstrictercomplianceofprovisionsrelatingtopaymentofwagesandsocialsecurity.Third,multiplicityof labour lawsandvariations in concepts and definitions in different statutes need to be removed bystreamlining, simplifying and codifying them, so as to reduce transaction costs andminimizetheavoidanceofcompliance.Fourth,atimeboundprogrammeoflegislationtoguarantee the minimum quality of working conditions and basic social protection toworkersintheinformalsectorneedstobeevolved.Inthisrespecttherecommendationsmadeby theNationalCommission forEnterprises in theUnorganizedSector (NCEUS)bothinrespectofconditionsofworkandsocialsecuritydeserveseriousconsideration.

Inadditiontotheforegoingdemandsidemeasures,animportantinitiativerelatingtothesupplysideofthe labourmarketthatneedsspecialattention isdevelopmentofadequatequantityandqualityofskills.Mostworkersemployedandlookingforworkhavenothadany vocational training for acquiring skills. Institutional capacity needs to be vastlyexpanded for training of young entrants to the labour market and realisation of thedemographicdividend Indiapotentiallypossesses. Italsoneeds tobeoriented towardsgreater flexibility in timing and regularity to suit the requirements of the employed,specially those in the informal sector, to enable them to upgrade their skills. Trainingrequires to be made demand induced for which it would be necessary to have animportantrole for industry in itsplanningandexecution.Apublicprivatepartnershipmodeisnecessaryforthispurposeaswellasforsharingthefinancialcostbytheusers.Itishoped that the nationally launched Skill Development Mission, establishment of theNational Skill Development Corporation and formation of a Council under thechairmanshipofthePrimeMinistertomonitorprogresswillplacethesubjectonthehighenough priority to give effect to adequate expansion in the skill base of the Indianworkforceandbettermatchingofskillsuppliesanddemand,bothinquantityandquality.

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ReferencesBesley, T. and R. Burgess (2004) Can Labour Regulation Hinder Economic

Performance?EvidencefromIndia,TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,119(1).

Bhattacharjea,Aditya(2006)LabourMarketRegulationandIndustrialPerformancein India:ACriticalReviewof theEmpiricalEvidence, Indian JournalofLabourEconomics,Vol.49,No.2.

Fallon, Peter R. and R.E.B. Lucas (1991) The Impact ofChanges in Job SecurityRegulationsinIndiaandZimbabwe,WorldBankEconomicReview,Vol.5,No.3.

Ghose, Ajit K., Nomann Majid, Christoph Ernst (2008), The Global EmploymentChallenge,Geneva,ILO.

Goldar, Bishwanath (2011) Growth in Organised Manufacturing Employment inRecentYears,EconomicandPoliticalWeekly,Vol.XLVI,No.7,February12.

Government of India (2006), Economic Survey 200506y, New Delhi, Ministry ofFinance.

(2011)201011,

Governmentof India,ReportonEffectofEconomicSlowdownonEmployment inIndia,LabourBureau,MinistryofLabour andEmployment (variousquarterlyreports).

Hassan,Rana,DevashishMitraandK.V.Ramaswamy(2003)TradeReforms,LabourRegulations and LabourDemand Elasticities: Empirical Evidence from India,WorkingPaper9879,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,CambridgeMA.

ILO(2007)KeyIndicatorsofLabourMarket,Geneva,InternationalLabourOffice,FifthEdition.

ILO (2011) Key Indicators of Labour Market, Geneva, International Labour Office,SeventhEdition.

Kannan, K.P. and G. Raveendran, (2009) Growth sans Employment: A QuarterCenturyof JoblessGrowth in IndiasOrganisedManufacturing,Economic andPoliticalWeekly,Vol.XLIV,No.10,March7.

Ministry of Tourism (2004) India Tourism Statistics, New Delhi, Government ofIndia.

(2006) InternationalPassengerSurvey,2003,FinalReport,NewDelhi,GovernmentofIndia.

NagrajR (2011) Growth inOrganisedManufacturingEmployment:AComment,EconomicandPoliticalWeekly,Vol.46,N0.12,March1724.

NCEUS(2009)TheChallengeofEmployment inIndia:AnInformalEconomyPerspective,National Commission for Enterprises in the Unorganised Sector,New Delhi,GovernmentofIndia.AndAcademicFoundation

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NSSO, (VariousYears)Surveys onEmployment andUnemployment,VariousRounds,NewDelhi,NationalSampleSurveyOrganisation.

Pais,J.,Papola,T.S.,Ranganathan,K.V.K.andChalapatiRaoK.S.(2006)EmploymentImplications of Growing Export of Services, (New Delhi, Institute for Studies inIndustrial Development) Report prepared for Ministry of Commerce andIndustry,GovernmentofIndia.

Pais, J. (2006) Tourism Employment: An Analysis of Foreign Tourism in India, ISIDWorkingPaper:2006/04.

Papola T.S., Jesim Pais and Partha Pratim Sahu (2008) LabourRegulation in IndianIndustry: Towards a Rational and Equitable Framework, New Delhi, ISID andBookwell.

PlanningCommission(2008),EleventhFiveYearPlan(20072012)VolumeI,InclusiveGrowth, Volume III,Agriculture, Industry, Services and Physical Infrastructure,NewDelhi,PlanningCommission,GovernmentofIndia.

RIS (2006)Towards anEmploymentOrientedExportStrategy:SomeExplorations,NewDelhi,ResearchandInformationSystemforDevelopingCountries.

Sarkar, Sandip and Anup K. Karan (2005) Status and Potential of Village AgroProcessingUnits/Industries,OccasionalPaper37,Mumbai,NABARD.

Veeramani,C. (2012)Anatomyof IndiasMerchandiseExportsGrowth,199394201011,EconomicandPoliticalWeekly,January7.

WorldBank(2010)IndiasEmploymentChallenge,CreatingJobs,HelpingWorkers,NewDelhi,OxfordUniversityPressandTheWorldBank.

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List of ISID Working Papers WP2012/07 EmploymentGrowthinthePostReformPeriod,T.S.Papola

WP2012/06 EstimationofPrivate Investment inManufacturingSectorandDeterminants inIndianStates,JagannathMallick

WP2012/05 RegionalDisparitiesinGrowthandHumanDevelopmentinIndia,SatyakiRoy

WP2012/04 SocialExclusionandDiscriminationintheLabourMarket,T.S.Papola

WP2012/03 ChangingFactorIncomes inIndustriesandOccupations:ReviewofLongTermTrends,SatyakiRoy

WP2012/02 StructuralChangesintheIndianEconomy:EmergingPatternsandImplications,T.S.Papola

WP2012/01 ManagingGlobalFinancialFlowsattheCostofNationalAutonomy:ChinaandIndia,SunandaSen

WP2011/04 TrendsandPatternsinConsumptionExpenditure:AReviewofClassandRuralUrbanDisparities,SatyakiRoy

WP2011/03 The Global Crisis and the Remedial Actions: A NonMainstream PerspectiveSunandaSen

WP2011/02 SpatialOrganizationofProductioninIndia:ContestingThemesandConflictingEvidence,SatyakiRoy.

WP2011/01 IndiasFDIInflows:TrendsandConcepts,K.S.ChalapatiRao&BiswajitDhar.

WP2010/12 OntheSustainabilityofIndiasNonInclusiveHighGrowth,SurajitMazumdar

WP2010/11 Operation of FDI Caps in India and Corporate Control Mechanisms, K.S.ChalapatiRao&BiswajitDhar.

WP2010/10 IndianCapitalism:ACaseThatDoesntFit?SurajitMazumdar.

WP2010/09 BigBusinessandEconomicNationalisminIndia,SurajitMazumdar

WP2010/08 Aligning with both the Soviet Union and with the PharmaceuticalTransnationals: Dilemmas attendant on initiating Drug Production in India,NasirTyabji.

WP2010/07 TheArduousRoute toensuring someMinimumPublicShareholding inListedCompanies,K.S.ChalapatiRao.

WP2010/06 ManagingFinanceinEmergingEconomies:TheCaseofIndia,SunandaSen.

WP2010/05 SocialScienceResearchinGlobalisingIndia:HistoricalDevelopmentandRecentTrends,T.S.Papola.

WP2010/04 Private Industry and the Second Five Year Plan: The Mundhra Episode asexemplarofCapitalistMyopia,NasirTyabji.

WP2010/03 TradinginIndiasCommodityFutureMarkets,SunandaSenandMahuaPaul.

WP2010/02 Industry and Services in Growth and Structural Change in India: SomeUnexploredFeatures,SurajitMazumdar.

WP2010/01 DoestheCurrentGlobalCrisisremindusoftheGreatDepression?SunandaSen.

* Already Published. Most of the working papers are downloadable from the institutes website:http://isidev.nic.in/orhttp://isid.org.in/

Institute for Studies in Industrial Development4, Institutional Area, Vasant Kunj Phase II, New Delhi - 110 070

Phone: +91 11 2676 4600 / 2689 1111; Fax: +91 11 2612 2448E-mail: [email protected]; Website: http://isid.org.in

About the ISIDThe Institute for Studies in Industrial Development (ISID), successor to the Corporate Studies Group (CSG), is a national-level policy research organization in the public domain and is affi liated to the Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR). Developing on the initial strength of studying Indias industrial regulations, ISID has gained varied expertise in the analysis of the issues thrown up by the changing policy environment. The Institutes research and academic activities are organized under the following broad thematic areas:

Industrialization: Land acquisition, special economic zones, encroachment of agricultural land, manufacturing sector, changing organized-unorganised sector relationship, rise of service economy in India, training and skill formation etc.;

Corporate Sector: With special emphasis on liberalization-induced changes in the structures of the sector, corporate governance, individual firms/groups, emerging patterns of internationalization, and of business-state interaction;

Trade, Investment and Technology: Trends and patterns of cross-border capital fl ows of goods and services, mergers & acquisitions, inward and outward FDI etc. and their implications for Indias position in the international division of labour;

Regulatory Mechanism: Study of regulatory authorities in the light of Indias own and international experience, competition issues;

Employment: Trends and patterns in employment growth, non-farm employment, distributional issues, problems of migrant labour and the changes in workforce induced by economic and technological changes;

Public Health: Issues relating to healthcare fi nancing, structure of health expenditure across states, corporatisation of health services, pharmaceutical industry, occupational health, environment, health communication;

Media Studies: Use of modern multimedia techniques for effective, wider and focused dissemination of social science research to promote public debates;

Other Issues: Educational policy and planning, role of civil societies in development processes etc.

ISID has developed databases on various aspects of the Indian economy, particularly concerning industry and the corporate sector. It has created On-line Indexes of 197 Indian Social Science Journals (OLI) and 18 daily English Newspapers. More than one million scanned images of Press Clippings on diverse social science subjects are available online to scholars and researchers. These databases have been widely acclaimed as valuable sources of information for researchers studying Indias socio-economic development.

ISID ISID

CHANGING FACTOR INCOMES IN INDUSTRIES AND OCCUPATIONS

Review of Long Term Trends

July 2012

Working PaperNo: 2012/03

Satyaki Roy

(1,1) -3- WP2012cvr.indd 04/10/2012 14:50:58(1,1) -3- WP2012cvr.indd 04/10/2012 14:50:58

WP1301i.pdfWP_1301

wp1301.pdf

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