wpa 2012 post elect analysis

Wilson Perkins Allen

Opinion Research Analysis of the 2012 Elections

© WPA. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any

means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of WPA.

Presidential Results and

Analysis of Exit Poll Data

Barack Obama won re-election with 332 Electoral Votes. President Obama carried 26 states.

National Presidential Results

Presidential Results

Electoral Votes

Romney Obama

206 332

Obama carried all of the swing states narrowly beating Romney in Ohio and Florida – two states that offer 47 Electoral Votes.

National Presidential Results

Presidential Results: Swing States

White & Middle-Class Voters

93.2 95.8 90.7

61.5 64.2

0.0

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

75.0

90.0

105.0

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Number of Voters (In Millions)

Presidential Elections Mid-Term House Elections

The number of white voters this cycle dropped by more than five million from four years ago.

Ethnicity: Whites

58%

51%

55%

60% 59%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Republican Share of Vote

Data: CNN Exit Polls

Drop of 5.1 Million

Voters from 2008

The electorate in most swing states was less white than it was in 2008.

Source: CNN Exit Polls

-5%

-4%

-4%

-4%

-3%

-3%

-3%

-2%

-2%

-1%

0%

2%

-10% -9% -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

NV

IN

FL

OH

CO

PA

WI

National

NC

NH

VA

IA

Percent Change of White Voters in Swing States (2008 to 2012)

2008: 69% 2012: 64%

2008: 88% 2012: 84%

2008: 71% 2012: 67%

2008: 83% 2012: 79%

2008: 81% 2012: 78%

2008: 81% 2012: 78%

2008: 89% 2012: 86%

2008: 74% 2012: 72%

2008: 72% 2012: 70%

2008: 94% 2012: 93%

2008: 70% 2012: 70%

2008: 91% 2012: 93%

44.8 46.6

39.1

29.6 30.9

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012



More than seven million middle class voters also did not show up at the polls.

Income: $50,000 to <$100,000

55% 51% 49%

53% 52%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


Drop of 7.5 Million

Voters from 2008


-7%

-7%

-7%

-5%

-5%

-3%

-2%

-2%

-1%

0%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

CO

FL

NV

National

VA

PA

NH

OH

WI

IA

Percent Change of Voters Earning $50K to $100K annually in Swing States (2008 to 2012)

Voters with an annual income between $50k and $100k were an even smaller percentage of the electorate in 2012 compared to 2008.

Source: CNN Exit Polls

2008: 42% 2012: 35%

2008: 38% 2012: 31%

2008: 40% 2012: 33%

2008: 36% 2012: 31%

2008: 35% 2012: 30%

2008: 34% 2012: 31%

2008: 38% 2012: 36%

2008: 36% 2012: 34%

2008: 39% 2012: 38%

2008: 37% 2012: 37%

Mitt Romney was not able to overcome the perception that his policies would favor the rich, not the middle class. Middle class voters who didn’t like Obama likely stayed home because they did not see a benefit in voting for Romney.

Vote by View of Candidate Policies


Rich 10%

Middle Class 44%

Poor 31%

Do Obama Policies Generally Favor:

Rich 53%

Middle Class 34%

Poor 2%

Do Romney Policies Generally Favor:

Voters this year were much more optimistic about where our country is going than they were two years ago. The Republican economic message did not resonate with voters.

Direction of the Country


34%

46%

61%

52%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2012

Right Direction Wrong Track

Even on specific issues such as health care, Republicans were not able to build on the momentum that served them so well in 2010.

The Health Care Law Should Be:


31% 26%

16% 18%

48% 49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2012

Expanded Kept As Is Repealed

Men supported Romney by a margin of seven points whereas Women voted for Obama by a margin of 11 points.

Source: CNN Exit Poll

52% 44%

3%

1%

45% 55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Male (47%)

Female (53%)

Gender

Romney Other Obama

60% 53%

40% 31%

2%

1%

4%

2%

38% 46%

56%

67%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Married men (29%)

Married women (31%)

Unmarried men

(18%)

Unmarried women (23%)

Gender and Marital Status

Romney Other Obama

48% 44%

56%

23%

3%

1% 1%

2%

1%

1%

51% 55%

42%

76%

96%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Overall Women (53%)

White Women (38%)

Hispanic Women (6%)

African-American Women

(8%)

Female Ethnic Demographic Groups

Obama

Other

Romney

Obama’s advantage among women is driven, in part, but his strong performance among Hispanic and African-American women. Romney won white women by 14 points.

Source: CNN 2012 Exit Polls

Over the past five presidential elections, Democrats have held a double-digit lead among women in every year except 2004.

38% 43%

48%

43% 44%

8%

3% 1% 1% 1%

54% 54% 51%

56% 55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Female Voting Habits

Republican Other Democrat

Source: CNN Exit Polls 1996-2012

Democrats benefitted from Republican missteps that alienated voters – particularly women and those concerned about women’s issues.

Wrong Tone

• High-profile Republican candidates chose their words poorly, and their sound bytes were easy fodder for opponents, late night comedians, and commentators.

• The inability to keep their foots out of their mouths fueled the narrative that contributed to the Democrats’ advantage.

Examples

• Mitt Romney’s “Binders Full of Women,” Todd Akin’s “Legitimate Rape,” and Richard Mourdock’s comments about pregnancies resulting from rape.

• These positions were used against these candidates, but were also used to drag other Republicans into a debate on women’s issues – a realm where Democrats have the advantage.

African-American Voters

President Obama’s strong advantage among African-Americans played a significant role in his victory.

48%

59%

6%

26%

1%

2%

1%

1%

51%

39%

93%

71%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Overall Whites (72%)

African-Americans (13%)

Hispanics (10%)

2012 Presidential Ballot Among Major Ethnic Groups

Obama

Other

Romney

Source: CNN Exit Polls 2012

13.3

16.8 16.4

7.8 9.2

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012



Barack Obama is a driving force for black voters who turned out again this year like they did in 2008. It is unlikely that they will continue to turn out at such a high rate without Barack Obama on the ballot.

Ethnicity: Black

11% 10%

4%

9%

6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


Increase of 3.1+ Million

Voters from 2004


Obama had more than 2.7 times as many field offices as Romney, allowing his team to more effectively target and turn out voters which helped him increase in key constituency groups such as African-American and Hispanic voters.

Obama Field Offices

(786)

Romney Field Offices

(284)

Source: http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/11/06/mapping-romney-and-obama-field-offices/

Field Offices in Ohio (131 vs. 40)

Latino Voters

9.7

11.6 12.6

6.2 6.7

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012



44%

30% 31%

38%

27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012


Latino voters have continued to become a bigger factor in elections.

Ethnicity: Latino


Increase of 1.0 Million

Voters from 2008

5% 7% 8% 9% 10%

21%

35%

44%

31%

26%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Total Hispanic Share of Vote and Republican Share of Hispanic Vote Presidential Election Years

Hispanic Share of Vote Republican Share

Over the past five Presidential elections, Republicans have not won more than 44% of the Hispanic vote and have seen their share of the Hispanic vote decrease since 2004. Since 1996, Hispanic share of the overall vote has doubled.

Source: CNN Exit Polls 1996-2012

Even in midterm elections, Republicans are not winning the Latino vote.

Source: Exit Polls 1996-2012

*Exit Polls were not available in 2002

5% 8% 8%

35% 30%

38%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1998 2006 2010

Total Hispanic Share of Vote and Republican Share of Hispanic Vote Midterm Election Years

Hispanic Share of Vote Republican Share

A WPA Statewide survey of likely Hispanic Voters in Texas found that many associated the Republican Party with being wealthy, and not part of the middle class. This perception is likely a driving factor behind diminished Republican performance among these voters.

Source: WPA Statewide Poll of Likely Hispanic Voters in Texas

Republican’s issues among Hispanic voters is not just immigration policy. Republicans problems are much more widespread and need to be addressed in future elections.

Key Issues Among Hispanics

Data: Resurgent Republic Poll

-52%

-45%

-43%

-42%

-34%

-33%

-32%

34%

44%

-70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70%

Makes Effort to Win Hispanics

Protecting Women's Rights

Understands Needs/Concerns of Hispanics

Shares Values of Social Issues

Supports Legal Immigration

Cares About Helping Middle Class

Improving Education

Anti-Immigration

Cares About Helping Rich People

Difference of Republican Party and Democratic Party Key Issues Among Hispanics

Post-Election

Even after the election the Democrats are winning the message battle on the Fiscal Cliff.

Handling of Fiscal Cliff

Data: Washington Post/ABC Poll, December 5-9, 2012

47%

24%

7%

22%

46% 54%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

President Obama Speaker Boehner

Disapprove

No Opinion

Approve

Voters indicate they would blame Republicans if an agreement isn’t reached on the Fiscal Cliff, which could cause issues for Republicans going forward into 2014.

Who is to Blame if Agreement Isn’t Reached

Republicans in Congress 53%

Both Equally 12%

Neither 2%

No Opinion 6%

President Obama 27%

Data: Washington Post/Pew Poll, November 29 – December 2, 2012

Major Democratic political figures all have net positive images while Republicans have net negative images.

Images Among Key Political Figures

Data: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, December 6-9, 2012

36%

30%

15%

9%

8%

1%

-4%

-4%

-9%

-10%

-15%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Bill Clinton

Hillary Clinton

Barack Obama

The Democratic Party

David Petraeus

Joe Biden

Paul Ryan

Susan Rice

Mitt Romney

John Boehner

The Republican Party

Conclusions

Republicans Lost the Messaging Battle

• Romney was not able to convince voters that he would be able to help the middle class. In fact, voters were more optimistic about the direction of the country than they were in 2008.

• Huge gaffs on women’s issues handed this issue to the Democrats who capitalized on it against Republicans in general.

• Republicans are losing among Latino voters in every major issue.

• All of these problems kept voters in key Republican constituencies from actually voting.

Going Forward

A Cohesive Message Is Needed

• Even after the election Republicans, specifically Speaker Boehner, are losing the message battle.

• If Republicans want to compete going forward they need to put together a cohesive and consistent message.

• Additionally, they need to stop alienating key groups of voters, such as women and Latinos.

For Republicans

Republican Demise?

Reports of Republican Demise are Overstated

• Political pundits were convinced that the Republican Party was dying and that the elections of 2006 and 2008 signified a new wilderness period of permanent minority status for Republicans.

• Yet in 2010 the GOP won a historic victory in the House and swept Governor’s mansions and state legislatures across the country.

• There is a majority coalition for Republicans out there.

• A second Obama term is not the end of either the Party or the country.

Draw Distinctions

Importance of Drawing Distinctions

• The entire Republican message, from the perspective of the average voter, consisted of “He has done a bad job. How about us?”

• Drawing distinctions won’t help all the time.

• We will often be in an environment where we are on the wrong side of public opinion (i.e. Iraq in 2006).

• Yet, if the Republican Party doesn’t take a stand on important issues we will end up in a post-New Deal permanent minority.

Nominating an Outsider

We Need Real Washington Outsiders

• John McCain had spent so long in the Senate that he was seen as part of the problem.

• Romney’s stint as Governor was both so far in the past and so well ignored by his campaign he might has well have come from Washington.

• Neither could offer a credible alternative to federal action.

• “No” is not a majority position in this country.

• Saying “No” to Washington is a majority position on many issues.

• Only a Governor seems to be able to talk about the importance of both localism and federalism as an alternative to federal action.

Vetting Candidates

Vetting Candidates

• Conservative organizations attacking incumbents from the right can be a hindrance to the conservative movement if they do not do the important leg-work to identify and vet a replacement candidate for the race in question.

• Over the last few elections, the GOP has lost several high-profile races largely because an allegedly “more conservative” candidate defeated an incumbent or the early frontrunner in the primary and then failed to gain traction with the general electorate.

Moving Forward

Moving Forward

• Local and national Republicans need to identify and vet a conservative with a realistic chance of winning the general election before moving against incumbents (like Dick Lugar) or candidates with a strong natural base of support (like Mike Castle in Delaware).

• Perfect examples of this practice in action include:

• Senator Mike Lee (UT) – unseated three-term Senator Robert Bennett.

• Senator-Elect Ted Cruz (TX) – defeated well-known and heavily backed Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst in the GOP Primary.

Contact

For additional information about this data, please feel free to contact:

Chris Wilson

Partner and CEO

202.470.6300 [email protected]

wpa 2012 post elect analysis

News & Politics