wpa's weekly political brief v1 1200803

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief August 3, 2012

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief

As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environment

as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates every Friday.

In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:

• Direction of the Country

• Obama Job Approval

• National Unemployment

• Obama Approval on the Economy

• Generic Congressional Ballot

• National & per capita debt

• Romney vs. Obama

In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and

timely new data from that week. This week we have:

• A review of the Texas Senate Primary Runoff.

• An analysis of the July jobs report.

• A look at the pace of the U.S. economic recovery relative to similar recoveries in other

countries.

• An examination of the differences between the Obama administration’s GDP forecast and the

IMF’s projections.

• The amount of taxes owed by each U.S. Olympic medal winner.

Weekly Summary

• The Texas Tea Party flexed its muscle with Ted Cruz’s win over establishment candidate David

Dewhurst in the Texas Senate Primary Runoff (pg. 8).

• While it is encouraging that the number of jobs created in July increased, 163,000 new jobs is

meager relative to what is needed to improve the economy (pg. 10).

o The unemployment rate rose to 8.3% in July, which is the 42nd consecutive month of

unemployment higher than 8%.

o If the labor force participation rate was as high as when Obama took office, today’s

unemployment rate would be 11.0%.

• The U.S. recovery is the weakest recovery among countries that have suffered similar types of

recessions (pg. 11).

• The Obama Administration’s GDP growth forecasts differ from the IMF’s projections (pg. 12).

o The difference between the two forecasts is $1.5 trillion, the size of the South Korean

economy.

• U.S. Olympians must pay an income tax on the winnings earned for every medal (pg. 14).

o After years of hard work and dedication, US Olympians are rewarded for their world class

performances with a 35% tax on the prize money for bringing home medals.

Less than one-third of Americans continue to feel as though the nation is on the right track.

Source: Real Clear Politics

One Month Ago One Year Ago

Right Direction 30% 27%

Wrong Track 62% 66%

29% 27% 29% 31% 31% 30%

28% 27%

17% 19%

31% 30% 32%

47%

66% 62%

64% 63% 64% 66% 64%

77% 74%

61% 62% 62%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan

-10

Fe

b-1

0

Ma

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Jun

-10

Jul-1

0

Au

g-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Oct-

10

Nov-1

0

De

c-1

0

Jan

-11

Fe

b-1

1

Ma

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Jun

-11

Jul-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Oct-

11

Nov-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Jun

-12

Jul-1

2

Direction of the Country

Right Direction Wrong Track

2010 Election

Obama’s job approval remains below 50% for 15th consecutive month.


One Week Ago One Month Ago

Approve 47% 47%

Disapprove 49% 50%

46%

52%

44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%

49%

47%

48% 49%

47% 46%

49%

42%

51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%

47%

48%

47% 48%

50% 49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12

Obama Job Approval

Approve Disapprove

$50,735

$139,686

$15,934,578,894,158

The national debt steadily approaches $16 Trillion.

Source: USDebtclock.org

U.S. National Debt

Debt Per Citizen

Debt Per Taxpayer

41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%

41% 43% 41% 41%

46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%

41% 46%

43% 43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

Democrat Republican

Republicans have held a lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot for over 5 months.

Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains

49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%

45%

0%

50%

100%

2004 2006 2008 2010

Previous Election Day Generic Ballots

R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats

WPA client Ted Cruz won a resounding victory over David Dewhurst in the Texas Senate Primary Runoff. WPA models accurately predicted the margin of victory and the total turnout.

57%

43%

14% 15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Ted Cruz David Dewhurst Margin WPA Predicted Margin

Final Results of the Texas Senate Primary Runoff

Source: Texas Secretary of State

1.11 1.03

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

1 1.2

Turnout WPA Predicted Turnout

Total Turnout of Texas Senate Primary Runoff

Only 40% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of the economy.

Source: Pollster.com

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Obama Economic Approval

Approve Disapprove

53%

40%

2010 Election

While it is encouraging that the number of jobs created in July increased, 163,000 new jobs is meager relative to what is needed for real economic recovery. The unemployment rate rose to 8.3% in July, which is the 42nd consecutive month of unemployment higher than 8%. If the labor force participation was as high as when Obama took office, today’s unemployment rate would be 11.0%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

125,000 =

Number of new

jobs needed to

keep pace with

population

growth

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

National Unemployment Rate

July 2012 8.3%

87,000 64,000

163,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

May June July

Jobs Created by Month

The US recovery is the weakest in the world. Since 1970 Japan, Sweden, and Finland all experienced a recession and a financial crisis. Yet the US has the slowest recovery among these countries with similar economic downturns.

Source: JPMorgan and the American Enterprise Institute

The Obama administration’s GDP growth forecasts differ from the IMF’s projections. This difference over 5 years is $1.5 trillion, which is the size of the South Korean economy.

2.3%

2.7%

3.5%

4.1% 4.0% 3.8%

2.0%

2.3%

2.8%

3.3% 3.4% 3.3%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

US GDP Growth Forecasts for Next 5 Years

Obama GDP Growth Forecast IMF GDP Growth Forecast

Source: The American Enterprise Institute

The race between Obama and Romney remains a dead-heat heading into the final three months of the election cycle.


47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49%

47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46% 46%

46% 43%

45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45% 43% 45% 44% 44% 45% 45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul 1-Aug

Obama vs. Romney

Obama Romney

U.S. Olympians must pay an income tax on their winnings for every medal. After years of hard work and dedication, U.S. Olympians are rewarded for their world class performances with a 35% tax.

$8,986

$5,385

$3,502

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

Gold Silver Bronze

Taxes owed for each Medal earned

Source: Americans for Tax Reform

For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact:

Bryon Allen Partner and COO

202.470.6300

E-mail:

[email protected]

Chris Perkins Partner

202.494.3084

E-mail:

[email protected]

Chris Wilson Partner and CEO

405.286.6500

E-mail:

[email protected]

Ryan Steusloff Vice President

202.470.6300

[email protected]

Matt Gammon Vice President

202.470.6300

[email protected]

wpa's weekly political brief v1 1200803

News & Politics