wti oil: us$97.05 ilfield news - oilfn.com · scada, rtu, plc design ... supplemental environmental...
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WTI OIL: US$97.05+$0.510 per barrelOctober delivery
NYMEX: N Gas: US$2.988+$0.76 per MMBTUSeptember delivery ilfield NEWS
oilfieldnews.ca www.markmilne.com
NORTH AMERICAN RIG COUNTSThe U.S. rotary rig count was down 30 at 1,864 for the week of September 7, 2012. It is 94 rigs (4.8%) lower than last year. The number of rotary rigs drilling for oil was down 10 at 1,409. There are 352 more rigs targeting oil than last year. Rigs drilling for oil represent 75.6 percent of all drilling activity. Rigs directed toward natural gas were down 21 at 452. The number of rigs currently drilling for gas is 440 lower than last year's level of 892. Year-over-year oil exploration in the U.S. is up 33.3 percent. Gas exploration is down 49.3 percent. The weekly average of crude oil spot prices is 8.8 percent higher than last year and natural gas spot prices are 28.5 percent lower. Canadian rig activity is up 29 at 345 for the week of September 7, 2012 and is 170 (33.0%) lower than last year's rig count. The number of rigs drilling for oil was up 19 to 256 and is 100 (28.1%) lower than last year. Gas directed rig count was up 10 at 89 and is 70 (44.0%) lower than a year ago
OIL RISES TUESDAYBrent oil futures edged higher in seesaw trading on Tuesday and U.S. crude pushed back above its 200-day moving average as expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will act to bolster the economy lent support and countered pressure from an improved supply picture. The U.S. central bank's policy committee's two-day meeting concludes on Thursday. Some analysts and investors expect the Fed will launch a third round of bond-buying because of recent weak U.S. economic data. Additional stimulus would likely weaken the dollar and boost dollar-denominated oil prices.U.S. October crude pushed 34 cents higher to $96.88 a barrel, pushing back above the 200-day moving average of $96.61, a closely watched technical indicator. The $97.31 session high was still almost a dollar below the $98.29 intraday peak from Aug. 23. Prices fell to $93.95 on Aug. 23 and have remained in the $94-$98 range since. Total crude trading volume continued to be lackluster ahead of the German court and Federal Reserve meeting results. Brent turnover lagged its 30-day average by 19 percent, with U.S. dealings 32 percent under their 30-day average.
CANADIAN SPOT GAS PRICESJUMP TO FOUR-WEEK HIGH
Canadian spot natural gas prices jumped to their highest levels in more than four weeks on Tuesday as futures surged and temperatures in Eastern markets were
forecast to climb. Spot gas at the AECO storage hub in southeastern Alberta rose 18 Canadian cents to average C$2.26 a gigajoule, the highest since Aug. 9. Deals
were done between C$2.18 and C$2.32 a GJ. Daytime temperatures in Toronto, Canada's largest market, are forecast to climb to well above normal for the rest of
the week then moderate by Sunday, Environment Canada said. Southern Alberta temperatures will be on either side of normal through Monday. Alberta's main
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pipeline system ran at 15.87 billion cubic feet, 366 million cubic feet under TransCanada Corp's target line pack. Producers delivered 9.36 bcf into the system and a net 424 mmcf was placed into storage facilities in the province. Export prices also climbed. Spot gas at Niagara, for shipment into the U.S. Northeast, jumped 20 cents to average $3.23 per mmBtu. Spot gas at Huntingdon-Sumas on the British Columbia-Washington border averaged $2.73 per mmBtu, also up 20 cents. Canadian synthetic crude premiums eased on Monday but remained close to 13-month highs after Suncor Energy Inc took an upgrading unit at its northern Alberta oil sands operation down for a month and a half of maintenance. Light synthetic for October delivery last sold for $13.25 a barrel over benchmark West Texas Intermediate, down from $13.90 a barrel over WTI on Friday, according to Shorcan Energy Brokers. It sold for as
much as $15.75 over the benchmark earlier in the session, similar to differentials in August 2011. The Suncor maintenance appeared to be the only fundamental driver of the strength in synthetic, which is processed from bitumen extracted from the oil sands, a trader said. Suncor said the planned work on a vacuum tower at one of its upgraders will include shutting a coker unit at the site. The turnaround is scheduled to last six weeks. Suncor's oil sands mining and processing operation has a capacity of about 350,000 barrels a day. Heavy crude discounts widened a bit, meanwhile. Western Canada Select heavy blend for October was quoted at $9.25 a barrel under WTI, compared with $9 under on Friday.
TRANSCANADA SUBMITS NEW KEYSTONE XL PIPELINE ROUTE
TransCanada Corporation (TSX:TRP) (NYSE:TRP) (TransCanada) today
announced i t has subm i t t ed a Supplemental Environmental Report (SER) to the Nebraska Department of Environmental Quality (NDEQ) for the preferred alternative route for the Keystone XL Pipeline in Nebraska. Today's filing respects the NDEQ's timelines and the overall regulatory process for determining a re-route in Nebraska, as requested by the U.S. Department of State (DOS) in November 2011. "Based on feedback from the Nebraska Department of Environmental Quality and the public, we have refined our proposed routing of the Keystone XL Pipeline," said Russ Girling, TransCanada's president and chief executive off icer. "The preferred alternative route in this Supplemental Environmental Report was developed based on extensive feedback from Nebraskans and reflects our shared desire to minimize the disturbance of land and sensitive resources in the state." The preferred alternative route and additional
information presented in the SER addresses feedback from over 670 Nebraskans who took part in open house discussions, hundreds of additional comments submitted to the Nebraska DEQ and direct conversations with landowners along the pipeline corridor. In response to comments regarding the proposed route TransCanada submitted in April 2012, that route has now been modified. In addition to various minor refinements, the SER identifies three significant route modifications: 1) Northern Alternative Although the NDEQ defined areas to avoid that were characterized as Sandhills, numerous comments from landowners and the NDEQ indicated that there are additional areas that exhibit similar characteristics to the Sandhills, even though they are not identified this way in existing literature or agency databases. These areas include features similar to sand dunes and areas with sandy, erodible soils, with a thin organic
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layer of topsoil. The new re-route minimizes impact on these features.2) Clarks Alternative During the public comment period, and through NDEQ review, Nebraskans suggested that Keystone avoid routing the pipeline west of the town of Clarks because the route would cross an area up gradient of the Clarks Well Head Protection Area (WHPA) and where the depth to groundwater is shallow and is the source of the town's water supply. The re-route is now down gradient from the well head protection area, includes fewer areas of wind erodible soils and crosses fewer sloped areas. 3) Western Alternative After the Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) was published in August 2011, the city of Western was issued a new WHPA that extended further west, overlapping the FEIS pipeline route. In response, an alternative western route was developed, moving the pipeline out of the WHPA. The SER has been filed with the Nebraska DEQ and will be available for viewing on t h e a g e n c y ' s w e b s i t e - http://www.deq.state.ne.us/. The Report
was also submitted to the U.S. Department of State in connection with an application for a Presidential Permit for Keystone XL. "TransCanada has been working with the Nebraska DEQ, landowners, engineering surveyors and environmental survey crews since we presented our initial route analysis in April," added Girling. "Both the route identified in April and the current preferred alternative route can support the safe construction and operation of the pipeline. "TransCanada shares the goal of protecting key water and natural resources with Nebraskans. The identified route, along with our commitment to implement additional safety requirements above and beyond those required for any other pipeline, ensures the protection of Nebraska's resources." Further highlights of the preferred alternative route include: The route covers approximately 210 miles of the Keystone XL route in Nebraska and increases the length of the pipeline in the state by 20 miles to a new total length of approximately 275 mile; The Nebraska DEQ and other state and federal agencies
developed a map that accurately defines the Sandhills region. The re-route respects this map and avoids the Sandhills area; The route included in the SER crosses fewer miles of threatened and endangered species habitat, fewer streams and rivers and considerably fewer miles of severely wind erodible soils; Two wellhead protection areas have been avoided. Work on the Nebraska re-route began in late 2011 and numerous environmental, engineering and other experts have provided input into the design and alignment of the route submitted today. Outside of the preferred alternative route area, environmental and technical studies have already been completed and reviewed by the U.S. Department of State for areas where the route of the Keystone XL Project has not changed since the Final Environmental Impact Statement was issued in August 2011. In addition to submitting the SER to the Nebraska DEQ, T r a n s C a n a d a w i l l p r o v i d e a n environmental report to the DOS on September 7, 2012. The environmental report is required as part of the DOS review
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Administration). These conditions include: a higher number of remotely controlled shut-off valves, increased pipeline inspections and pipe that is buried deeper in the ground. TransCanada also uses a technique called horizontal directional drilling to drill under major rivers a minimum of 25 feet. This will allow us to bury the pipe deeper on both sides of the river bank, offering protection from floods or high river levels. The pipe will be made of thicker steel as it crosses rivers, will operate at a lower pressure and be further protected by advanced, non-abrasive coatings. The Final Environmental Impact
Statement for the project concluded the incorporation of the 57 special conditions 'would result in a project that would have a degree of safety over any other typically constructed domestic oil pipeline system under current code.'
SHALE OIL PRODUCTIONCAN'T STOP CRUDE RISE
Oil prices are likely to rise sharply from 2015, surpassing $150 a barrel in 2019 and 2020, Bernstein Research said on Tuesday, in a report at odds with a growing oil industry consensus that says rising supplies of unconventional oil will
moderate prices. The 180-page report from Bernstein estimates Brent will rise from an average $113 in 2015 to $158 in 2020, with U.S. crude priced at a $5 discount, almost doubling the price of oil since Brent averaged $80 a barrel in 2010. The forecast compares with prices on the forward futures curve for Brent that are at a substantial discount to the current price of $115 a barrel. Brent for 2015 on Tuesday traded at about $99 a barrel, falling gradually to $91 a barrel in December 2019. "A new thesis in energy markets is that unconventional sources of oil supply will soon outweight global demand growth,
driving oil prices lower - we disagree," the report says. "Global Oil Prices: At 'Base Camp' Before the Final Ascent" argues that while U.S. shale oil and Canadian oil sands have reinvigorated the North American oil industry, new supplies are too small to meet emerging market demand growth. By 2015, shale oil is forecast to constitute just 3.2 pct of global supply, up from 1.5 pct now. "Emerging market demand is still robust, rising with higher wealth and mobility; in developed markets the role of fuel economy in demand destruction is overstated; conventional non-OPEC supply is increasingly mature;
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OPEC capacity growth will likely lag its required rate." The report forecast oil markets will be balanced for the next two years, kept in check by price elasticity as higher prices erode demand and lower prices shut in supply. But in the second half of the decade it says demand will rise, non-OPEC supply will fall and OPEC spare capacity will drop. The cost of production will support prices. Bernstein estimated the marginal cost of supply - the cost of production for the most expensive new fields - rose to $92 a barrel on average last year. Output from marginal wells is scale back when prices fall below that level, including supply from the smallest U.S. shale oil wells. It said that Canada's oil sands producers need $100 a barrel to achieve an adequate return on capital. With oil demand forecast rising from 90 million bpd now to 100 million bpd 2020, OPEC would need to lift capacity by 9 million bpd from about 35 million bpd now to balance world markets. "OPEC
producers will prefer to run deficits in world oil supply rather than in their own domestic budgets," the report said. In addition, the average budget breakeven across OPEC nations is likely to rise from $94 a barrel today to $109 by 2017, Bernstein estimated.
TRANSOCEAN TO SELL 38 OLDER RIGS
Transocean Ltd, the world's largest offshore driller, is selling 38 less-capable rigs to focus on more lucrative shallow-water units as well as rigs that work in water more than a mile deep. Older models are in low demand and face higher downtime, with maintenance costs cutting into profits. Transocean and rival Noble Corp have both spent a year and a half sounding out interest in selling them, and Noble's search continues. Transocean, while still seeking a buyer for its remaining standard shallow-water rigs that are out of service, is selling the 38 rigs for $1.05
billion to Dubai-based private equity-backed firm Shelf Drilling International Holdings Ltd. The company said the book value of the rigs it sold was $1.4 billion, higher than what it will receive. The sale comes three months after sources told Reu te rs t ha t Sw i t ze r l and -based Transocean had put its Middle East "jackups," as shallow-water rigs are known, up for sale in a deal likely to raise $1 billion. Transocean is now talking to a major oil company about funding construction of four ultra-deepwater drillships with a 10-year contract, it said. Transocean also aims to borrow $500 million to $1 billion to fund its deepwater expansion. Deepwater wells, in 4,500 feet of water or more, accounted for
more than half the world's new discoveries so far this year, according to IHS Offshore Rig Consulting, which tracks rig activity. Earlier on Monday, another contract driller, Rowan Cos Plc , said it exercised its option to build a fourth ultra-deepwater drillship with Hyundai Heavy Industries Co Ltd for about $620 million. Most of the 38 rigs sold to Shelf Drilling had at least 30 years of service, and all were based outside North America. Transocean will be left with about 90 rigs, and now as much as nine more lined up to be built. Chief Executive Steven Newman said the deal marked an "important milestone" in its strategy to focus on more capable rigs and improve the company's long-term competitiveness.
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