wto - europe year 2003 : will tourism pick up again? presentation by luigi cabrini, regional...

WTO - EuropeWTO - Europe

Year 2003 : Will tourism pick up Year 2003 : Will tourism pick up again?again?

Presentation byPresentation by

Luigi Cabrini, Regional Representative for EuropeLuigi Cabrini, Regional Representative for Europe

World Tourism Organization (WTO)World Tourism Organization (WTO)

2nd International Conference on Tourism in Bulgaria

Sofia, Bulgaria – 9-11 January 200311


Factors that affected tourism Factors that affected tourism in 2001 and 2002in 2001 and 2002::

Economic slow-down and uncertainties

- stocks sliding

- decrease in consumer confidence

- slight increase in unemployment

11th September terrorist attacks and ensuing military action

Floods in Central Europe

Premeditated terrorist attacks against tourists (Bali, Kenya)

The Middle East conflict

The Iraq crisis


Results of International Tourism Results of International Tourism DevelopmentDevelopment

International tourist arrivals

552586 610 628 652

697 693

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

(millio

n)

International tourism receipts

406 410 420 443 455477 464

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

($ b

illion

)


European destinations - 2002European destinations - 2002Bulgaria 8,5 January - SeptemberCroatia 42,6 January - SeptemberDenmark -2,3 January - August Germany -1,3 January - JulyHungary -1,1 January - June Ireland 2 January- MarchItaly 0,6 January - JuneNorway -2,7 January - August Poland -22,8 January - AprilPortugal -3,2 January - AprilSpain 1,8 January - SeptemberSweden 4,4 January - August Switzerland -9,8 January- AugustTurkey 10,1 January - September United Kingdom 2 January - September

44


Growth of World Real GDP & international Tourist Arrivals

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

% c

han

ge

ove

r p

revi

ou

s ye

ar

Real GDP

Tourist Arrivals

Average 1975-2000

Average 1975-2000

Tourism Tourism strongly dependent on economystrongly dependent on economy

echo of the second oil crisis / martial law in Poland / Falklands conflict / conflict Israel-Lebanon

Gulf War / disintegration of Yugoslavia

Asian Financial Crisis


IMF Forecasts 2002-2003Growth of Gross Domestic Product, constant prices

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Worl

d

United

States

Euro ar

ea

German

yUnit

ed King

dom

Centra

l and

Eas

tern E

urope

Bulgari

a

Japa

nMidd

le Eas

t, Malt

a, Turk

ey

Wes

tern H

emisp

here

(Ameri

cas)

% c

ha

ng

e

2001 2002* 2003*

Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)World Economic Outlook, September 2002


Recommendations for the recovery Recommendations for the recovery of the tourism industryof the tourism industry

77

Institutional measures: government coordination

Rebuild consumer confidence

Enhance safety and security

Improve communication

Better targeted products

Vigorous marketing (including cooperative action)

Public-private partnerships

Understanding the economic impact of tourism (by markets, segments, sectors, etc.)


General trends in demandGeneral trends in demand

Shorter stays and fragmentation of holidays

Sensitivity to price / discounts at airlines

Wait-and-see attitude

Last-minute bookings cash-flow problems for tourism businesses

Greater demand for customized holidays

Holidays as experience: the aim is to have a more participative experience at the destination

88


Increase in Domestic and Intra-regional Tourism

Traveller bTraveller behaviour ehaviour modelsmodels

99

Trips within the country, to bordering countries or to countries within the same region, especially those sharing the same culture

Increase in group travel among people with common characteristics or interests (church groups, social organizations) due to the added security this arrangement provides

Trend towards high-motivation trips and visitsto friends and relatives

WTO - EuropeWTO - Europe1010

Medium-term trendsMedium-term trends

Reorganization and liberalization of the air transport market , the rise of low-cost airlines

Increased competition

More mature and experienced travellers

Aging western population

Shift of market power from producers to consumers (from a seller’s to a buyer’s market)

Regulation and restriction of access to congested sites

Importance of sustainable tourism development

Increased use of new technologies


Tourist arrivals by receiving regions, 1950-2020

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

mill

ion

s

South AsiaMiddle EastAfricaEast Asia/PacificAmericasEurope

Actual Forecasts

699 mn

1.006

1.561

GrowthGrowth


In 2001 intraregional tourism was relatively less affected in all regions

Trend in International Tourist Arrivals by Origin, 2001*

-5.1-3.9

-2.3

0.62.6

0.6

6.3

-7.8-5.3

-12.1-8.3

0.71.8

-6.4

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

World East Asia/ Pacific

Africa Europe SouthAsia

Americas MiddleEast

% c

ha

ng

e

From same region

From other region


Promising tourism segments for Promising tourism segments for Central/Eastern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe

Cultural tourism

City breaks

Business and conference travel (MICE)

Rural tourism/Ecotourism

Sport (winter sport tourism)

Health tourism


Prospects for Central and EasternProspects for Central and EasternEuropean DestinationsEuropean Destinations

Joining the European Union

Benefits:

joining most economically and socially developed nations free movement of capitals, goods, services and people joining the euro zone

Factors to take into account:

increased competition the need to harmonize legal frameworks in tourism (The EU package tour directive, the Bill of air passenger rights, etc.)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Central/Eastern EuropeCentral/Eastern EuropeInternational Tourist Arrivals and ReceiptsInternational Tourist Arrivals and Receipts

Central and Eastern Europe recorded 76,3 million international tourist arrivals in 2001, 200 thousand or 0,3% less than in 2000; receipts outpaced tourist arrivals, totally almost 30 billion euros in 2001.

Arrivals (million)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Receipts (euro billion)


Tourism Strengths of Central and Eastern Tourism Strengths of Central and Eastern European DestinationsEuropean Destinations

Rich and varied heritage (natural and man-madetourism resources)

Living folk traditions and hospitality

Relatively developed tourism infrastructure

Potential for varied and high quality tourism offer

Proximity to major European markets

Positive image

Institutional support and public awareness


Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention

Regional Representation for EuropeRegional Representation for Europe

www.world-tourism.orgwww.world-tourism.org1717

wto - europe year 2003 : will tourism pick up again? presentation by luigi cabrini, regional...

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