wu 2 | us epa archive document · 2015. 9. 2. · lrg. cladocerans sm. cladocerans omnivorous fish...

Presented atPresented at

Great Rivers Reference Condition Great Rivers Reference Condition WorkshopWorkshop

January 10January 10--11, Cincinnati, OH11, Cincinnati, OHSponsored by Sponsored by

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and The Council of StatThe U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and The Council of State Governmentse Governments

Models Supporting a Reference/Desired Future Condition for Models Supporting a Reference/Desired Future Condition for Ecosystem Restoration of the Upper Mississippi River Ecosystem Restoration of the Upper Mississippi River

Steve M. Bartell, Ph.D.Yegang Wu, Ph.D.Shyam Nair, Ph.D.

E2 Consulting Engineers, Inc.http://[email protected]

Phone: (865)980-0960Fax: (865)980-0964


The Locks & DamsThe Locks & Dams

The FloodplainThe Floodplain

has been has been hydrologically hydrologically altered since the altered since the locks and dams locks and dams were put into were put into operation in the operation in the 1930s. 1930s.

TheThe

The historical conditions can be used to define The historical conditions can be used to define objectives in the restoration and management of objectives in the restoration and management of the Upper Mississippi River. Derivation of desired the Upper Mississippi River. Derivation of desired or reference conditions must also recognize that or reference conditions must also recognize that the system now consists of a series of connected the system now consists of a series of connected impoundments that are regulated to facilitate impoundments that are regulated to facilitate commercial navigation.commercial navigation.



Since the early 20Since the early 20thth century, century, we have effectively developed we have effectively developed water resources, and now water resources, and now manage water infrastructure manage water infrastructure for commercial navigation, for commercial navigation, flood damage reduction, flood damage reduction, hydropower generation, hydropower generation, recreation, and water supply recreation, and water supply in the Upperin the Upper--Mississippi River.Mississippi River.

Islands characterized by woody vegetation experienced Islands characterized by woody vegetation experienced unusually prolonged unfavorable hydrologic conditions unusually prolonged unfavorable hydrologic conditions and were eliminated from many areas of the river. and were eliminated from many areas of the river.

As a result, As a result, landscape patterns landscape patterns have been changed have been changed in historical in historical floodplains and floodplains and large open water large open water areas were created areas were created above the dams. above the dams.

1890 1989

WoodyPrairiesMarshSAV/WaterAgri/Urban


Increase the Increase the navigationnavigation

efficiency of the Riverefficiency of the River

Restore, protect, Restore, protect, enhance the enhance the environmental environmental services of the Riverservices of the River

Congress now recognizes the UMRS as a Congress now recognizes the UMRS as a nationally significant ecosystem:nationally significant ecosystem:

•Restore natural floodplain•Restore natural hydrology

•Reduce erosion and sediment•Monitor and protect water quality

•Improve native fish passage at dams•Increase backwater connectivity with main channel

•Maintain viable populations of native species in situ•Increase side channel, island, shoal, and sand bar habitat

•Restore and maintain evolutionary and ecological processes•Represent all native ecosystem types across their natural range of variation

Prediction & Evaluation of Performance Measures for the Desired Goals

Spatially Explicit CASM•Vegetation Succession Module

•Landscape Pattern Analyst•SAV Simulation Module•Sedimentation Module•Water Quality Module

•Mussel Module•Fish Module

Pool5

The model applied to each specific Pool in the Upper Mississippi River System

Spatial resolution: 100 x 100 mSpatial interactionsSpatial dynamicsSpatial pattern analysisSpatial visualization

Model Simulation:VerificationCalibrationValidation

• To achieve our system-wide and pool objectives:• To evaluate performance measures• To guide and make suggestions to management actions• To forecast and predict the ecosystem outputs

Uncertainty AnalysisSensitivity AnalysisScenario Analysis


CASMFood Web

DIN, DIP, Si

Advection

I0

Piscivore (b)

Piscivores (p)

Benthic insects, bivalvesOmnivorous fish (p)

Omnivorous fish (b)

Light

Temperature

MacrophytesVallisneriaMyriophyllumCeratophyllumPotamogeton

PhytoplanktonCryptophytesDiatomsChlorophytesCyanophytes

PeriphytonDiatomsChlorophytesCyanophytes

ZooplanktonCyclopoid copepodsCalanoid copepodsLrg. cladoceransSm. cladocerans

Omnivorous fishBluegill Carp Crappie Chan. catfishLrgmth bass BullheadGizzard shad BuffaloShiners FW Drum

Benthic invertebratesAquatic insectsCrayfishAmphipodsClamsMussels

PiscivoresN. pikeShrtns. garWalleyeYellow perchSm. bass

Sturgeon

EmergentsBullrushArrowheadWild rice

Velocity

Depth

Integration...

CASM – Pool 5 Food Web

DIN, DIP, Si

Advection

I0

Piscivore (b)

Piscivores (p)

Benthic insects, bivalves

Omnivorous fish (p)

Omnivorous fish (b)

Light

Temperature








Sturgeon


Velocity

Depth

CASM – Pool 5 Food Web

DIN, DIP, Si

Advection

I0

Piscivore (b)

Piscivores (p)

Benthic insects, bivalves

Omnivorous fish (p)

Omnivorous fish (b)

Light

Temperature








Sturgeon


Velocity

Depth

H&H Integration• Pool 5 RMA simulations

by Hendrickson et al., St. Paul District- steady-state velocity, depth, elevation

• Development of ADH model forPool 5 (Berger et al., ERDC)

- dynamic conditions

FingerLakes

Zumbro River

Mississippi River

Upper Peterson

Lake

Lock and Dam Number 4

NC

lear

Low

erPe

ters

on

Third Se

cond

Firs

t

Schm

oker

s

Main Channel

Main

Chan

nel

Outlet

1000 m

Culvert

Dike

Finger Lakes Habitat ProjectJohnson et al. 2000, UMESC• Food web structure• Water quality parameters• Population sizes

UMRS Navigation Feasibility Study• fish community structure• seasonal pattern of flows• submodels (NavSAV, NavMSL)• parameter values (NavLEM, NavSAV, NavMSL)• technical input (Barko, Wilcox, Best, Whitney, Soballe)

Pool 5 CASM

Rock IslandSt. PaulSt. LouisERDC, Vicksburg

NESP• forecast restoration outcomes

- water level management- island construction- backwater connectivity- floodplain land cover/use

• risk assessment- probability of success- potential surprises

• estimate goods and services• evaluate long-term sustainability• integrate navigation impacts

LTRMP- water quality data- food web data

Cumulative Effects Study- habitat distribution- planform information- ecological guilds

Delong et al. Food web studiesWinona State Univ.

Spatially Explicit CASM for Simulation and Evaluation of the Restoration Success in Achieving Desired Future Conditions

1. Maintain and sustain the critical habitat quantity (acres) and quality for different wildlife: riparian vegetation, tree islands, floodplain forests, aquatic vegetation.

•Vegetation Succession Module•SAV Simulation Module


•Landscape Pattern Analyst•Sedimentation Module

2. Maintain and sustain the landscape patters, such as floodplain, river channel, slough, delta, and lakes including river flows and connectivity.

1890 1989

Changing

Restoring

3. Large rivers and their floodplains are among the most productive ecosystems in the world with an abundance of aquatic plants that provide critical habitat for the production of valuable fish, such as the sturgeons and support production of migratory waterfowl.

•Water Quality ModuleNutrients (N &P)

ToxicitySediment


3. Large rivers and their floodplains are among the most productive ecosystems in the world with an abundance of aquatic plants that provide critical habitat for the production of valuable fish, such as the sturgeons and support production of migratory waterfowl.

Fish are attracted to mussel beds and serve as hosts to their larvae

Spatially Explicit CASM

•Water Quality ModuleNutrients (N &P)

ToxicitySediment

N & P Loading into the system

Chemical and ecological processes in the Pool area

Flux out of the Pool

VegetationSAV

Water volumeVelocitySedimentation

Mass Balance Ecosystem Service

Spatially Explicit CASM

Mesic Prairies

Cattail MarshOpen Water/SAV

Forest/Woody Vegetation

Agriculture/Urban


•SAV Simulation Module•Landscape Pattern Analyst

1890 1989

Biomass (Kg/acre)Species compositionBiodiversity (α & β)Habitat (Acres)Vegetation patterns

Performance Measures:

Water depthHydroperiodFlood patternsDrought patternsFreezeNutrients (N &P)ToxicitySedimentFire

Affecting Factors:

HistoricalNaturalViableChangingDynamic

100 years Simulation

EstablishmentSuccessionGrowthMortality


•SAV Simulation Module

Mapped 1890


How does the model work?

Mapped 1989

5000

3000

2000

1000

0

4000

Woody Prairie Marsh SAV/Water Agri/Urban

Land

Use

Typ

e (h

a)

Year

1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900

250

200

150

100

Simulation of Daily Water Depth

Dai

ly W

ater

Dep

th (c

m)

Topo Map

1890

1989


•SAV Simulation ModuleHow does the model work?

Environmental GradientLow High

Gro

wth

Rat

es

Establishing in a cell Expanding in a cell Expanding to neighboring cells

VegetationSuccession

In Landscapes



Mapped 1890


Verification

Woody Prairie/ Marsh SAV/Water Agri/Urban0

5000

3000

2000

1000

4000

Land

Use

Typ

e (h

a)

Woody Prairie Marsh SAV/Water Agri/Urban0

3000

2000

1000

4000

Land

Use

Typ

e (h

a)

Mapped 1890Simulated 1890Simulated 1900Simulated 1910Simulated 1920Simulated 1930Simulated 1940Simulated 1950Simulated 1960Simulated 1970Simulated 1980Simulated 1990

Mapped

Simulated

1890

1989


Mapped 1890 Simulated 1890 Simulated 1900 Simulated 1910

Simulated 1920 Simulated 1930 Simulated 1940 Simulated 1950


6000

5000



Mapped 1890


Verification

Woody/Prairie/ Marsh/SAV/Water Agri/Urban0

5000

3000

2000

1000

4000

Land

Use

Typ

e (h

a)

Woody Prairie Marsh SAV/Water Agri/Urban0

3000

2000

1000

4000

Land

Use

Typ

e (h

a)

Mapped 1989

Mapped 1890Simulated 1890Simulated 1900Simulated 1910Simulated 1920Simulated 1930Simulated 1940Simulated 1950Simulated 1960Simulated 1970Simulated 1980Simulated 1990

Mapped

Simulated

1890

1989


Mapped 1890 Simulated 1890 Simulated 1900 Simulated 1910



6000

5000




Woody Prairie/ Marsh SAV/Water Agri/Urban

7000

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0Drawdown (ft)

0

3000

2000

1000

4000

Land

Use

Typ

e (h

a)

0.0 ft Drawdown

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Scenario Simulations

Testing Hypotheses

Performance Measures

SECASM as a management tool for:

Marsh/SAV/WaterMarshSAV/Water

0.5 ft Drawdown1.0 ft Drawdown1.5 ft Drawdown2.0 ft Drawdown2.5 ft Drawdown3.0 ft Drawdown

6000

5000




Scenario Simulations

0

5000

3000

2000

1000

4000

Prai

ries

(ha)

0

3000

2000

1000

4000

Upl

and

(ha)

Mapped 1989

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 1890Drawdown (ft)

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 1890Drawdown (ft)

0.0 ft Drawdown0.5 ft Drawdown1.0 ft Drawdown1.5 ft Drawdown2.0 ft Drawdown2.5 ft Drawdown3.0 ft Drawdown

0.0 ft Drawdown

0.5 ft Drawdown

1.0 ft Drawdown

1.5 ft Drawdown

2.0 ft Drawdown

2.5 ft Drawdown

3.0 ft Drawdown

Mapped 1989

Scenario Simulations of Drawdown

6000




Testing Hypotheses

Woody Prairie/ Marsh SAV/Water Agri/Urban

5000

4000

Low HighIntensity of Agricultural & Urban Development

0

3000

2000

1000

Land

Use

Typ

e (h

a)

0

0

0

0

0

0

0Forest/PrairieAgriUrban

0.0 ft Drawdown0.5 ft Drawdown1.0 ft Drawdown1.5 ft Drawdown2.0 ft Drawdown2.5 ft Drawdown3.0 ft DrawdownMapped 1890Simulated 1890Simulated 1900Simulated 1910Simulated 1920Simulated 1930Simulated 1940Simulated 1950Simulated 1960Simulated 1970Simulated 1980Simulated 1990



HistoricalNaturalViableChangingDynamic

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1 2 3

Water Depth

Agriculture/Urban

Are

a (h

a)

1890 1989Without L&D

1989With L&D

Testing Hypotheses

Spatially Explicit CASM•Landscape Pattern Analyst

Maintain and sustain the landscape patters, such as floodplain, river channel, slough, delta, and lakes including river flows and connectivity.

1890 1989

Changing

Restoring

1890 00 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90Year

1890 00 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90Year

Lacu

narit

yIn

dex

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

Woody Vegetation Surface Water

“Lacuna” means holes and hence lacunarity is a measure of “holeness” or “connectiveness”. Lacunarity Index (λ) is expressed as:

λ(r) = Σ SS2 Q(S, r) / [Q(S, r) ]2

where (r=2) is the size of a gliding box across a landscape, S is the number of cells of a given vegetation type within the gliding box, and Q(S, r)is the corresponding frequency of a given vegetation type occurring in the gliding box. Two attributes were recognized, woody vegetation and pounding water. High value means high connectivity. Low value means more fragmented.



• Measuring the success?• Quantifying?• Evaluating restoration alternatives?


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18A

vera

gePa

tch

Size

(ha)

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 1890 S100Drawdown (ft)

Num

ber o

f Cel

ls (h

a)

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 1890 S100Drawdown (ft)

Num

ber o

f Pat

ches

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 1890 S100Drawdown (ft)

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 1890 S100Drawdown (ft)

Lacu

narit

yIn

dex

Woody VegetationWoody Vegetation

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

5

10

15

20

25



Ave

rage

Patc

hSi

ze (h

a)

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 1890 S100Drawdown (ft)

Num

ber o

f Cel

ls (h

a)

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 1890 S100Drawdown (ft)

Num

ber o

f Pat

ches

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 1890 S100Drawdown (ft)

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 1890 S100Drawdown (ft)

Lacu

narit

yIn

dex

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Marsh Marsh

• Measuring the success?• Quantifying?• Evaluating restoration alternatives?

0.0 ft Drawdown

0.5 ft Drawdown

1.0 ft Drawdown

1.5 ft Drawdown

2.0 ft Drawdown

2.5 ft Drawdown

3.0 ft Drawdown

Mapped 1989

Thank you!

wu 2 | us epa archive document · 2015. 9. 2. · lrg. cladocerans sm. cladocerans omnivorous fish...

Documents