wv-03 internal poll may 2014

Anzalone Liszt Grove Research conducted N= 502 live telephone interviews on landlines and cellphones with likely 2014 voter s in West Virginia’s Third Congressional District. Interviews were conducted between May 12-14, 2014. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.4% with a 95% confidence level. May 19, 2014 To: Interested Parties Fr: Jeff Liszt / Zac McCrary Re: Summary of Polling among Likely 2014 Voters in West Virginia CD-3 Congressman Nick Rahall holds a double-digit lead (52% to 39%) over Republican challenger Evan Jenkins, despite having absorbed more than two million dollars in attack ads from Koch Brothers-funded groups. In spite of myriad attacks on the issue of coal Rahall maintains a solid brand on the critical issue of protecting the area’s coal jobs. Rahall’s overall popularity is also holding up well, while Jenkins’ favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is just 1:1. With sufficient resources to sustain a robust paid communication campaign, Nick Rahall has a strong chance to win re-election. Nick Rahall leads Republican Evan Jenkins by 13 points • Despite being the target of two million dollars i n attack ads, Nick Rahall leads Evan Jenkins by 13 points (52% Rahall / 39% Jenkins). Rahall not only leads, he is polling over 50%. The margin is similar to results from Garin-Hart-Yang in April (Rahall 52% / Jenkins 40%). • Rahall leads among men and women, union households and non-union households, and among coal households and non-coal households. Rahall also l eads by double-digits in both the Charleston-Hunti ngdon and Bluefield-Beckl ey media markets. Voters still believe Congressman Rahall fights for the area’s coal mining jobs • By a 17- point margi n, voters agree Rahall , “stands up for the area’s coal mini ng jobs,” (55% Agree / 38% Disagree). • The Koch Brothers’ ads have repeatedly targeted Rahall on the issue of coal. Rahall responded strongly with positive communication during the primary about his record on coal, successfully reminding voters that he stands up for West Virginia. . Evan Jenkins’ relatively high unfavorable rating makes it difficult for him to take advantage of the massive Koch-fueled spending attacking Rahall ! Rahall has s o far wit hstood an expensive, negative campaign. His 17-point net-favorable rating (56% favorable / 39% unfavorable) is impressive given the intensity of attacks he’s endured over the past several months. ! In contrast, Evan Jenkins’ favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is just 1:1 (25% Favorable / 25% Unfavorable). House Majority PAC has been more successful in defining Jenkins than Koch-affiliated groups have been in defining Congressman Rahall. Jenkins’ mediocre personal popularity makes it more difficult for him to take advantage of attacks against Congressman Rahall.

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An internal survey from Rahall's campaign shows him up 13.

TRANSCRIPT

Anzalone Liszt Grove Research conducted N=502 live telephone interviews on landlines and cellphones with likely 2014 voters in West Virginias Third Congressional District. Interviews were conducted between May 12-14, 2014. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is 4.4% with a 95% confidence level.

May 19, 2014

To: Interested Parties Fr: Jeff Liszt / Zac McCrary Re: Summary of Polling among Likely 2014 Voters in West Virginia CD-3 Congressman Nick Rahall holds a double-digit lead (52% to 39%) over Republican challenger Evan Jenkins, despite having absorbed more than two million dollars in attack ads from Koch Brothers-funded groups. In spite of myriad attacks on the issue of coal Rahall maintains a solid brand on the critical issue of protecting the areas coal jobs. Rahalls overall popularity is also holding up well, while Jenkins favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is just 1:1. With sufficient resources to sustain a robust paid communication campaign, Nick Rahall has a strong chance to win re-election. Nick Rahall leads Republican Evan Jenkins by 13 points

Despite being the target of two million dollars in attack ads, Nick Rahall leads Evan

Jenkins by 13 points (52% Rahall / 39% Jenkins). Rahall not only leads, he is polling over 50%. The margin is similar to results from Garin-Hart-Yang in April (Rahall 52% / Jenkins 40%).

Rahall leads among men and women, union households and non-union households, and

among coal households and non-coal households. Rahall also leads by double-digits in both the Charleston-Huntingdon and Bluefield-Beckley media markets.

Voters still believe Congressman Rahall fights for the areas coal mining jobs

By a 17-point margin, voters agree Rahall, stands up for the areas coal mining jobs, (55% Agree / 38% Disagree).

The Koch Brothers ads have repeatedly targeted Rahall on the issue of coal. Rahall responded strongly with positive communication during the primary about his record on coal, successfully reminding voters that he stands up for West Virginia. .

Evan Jenkins relatively high unfavorable rating makes it difficult for him to take advantage of the massive Koch-fueled spending attacking Rahall

! Rahall has so far withstood an expensive, negative campaign. His 17-point net-favorable rating (56% favorable / 39% unfavorable) is impressive given the intensity of attacks hes endured over the past several months.

! In contrast, Evan Jenkins favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is just 1:1 (25% Favorable / 25% Unfavorable). House Majority PAC has been more successful in defining Jenkins than Koch-affiliated groups have been in defining Congressman Rahall. Jenkins mediocre personal popularity makes it more difficult for him to take advantage of attacks against Congressman Rahall.