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Overview Overview Submitted KP (3.3) tables in April 2007Submitted KP (3.3) tables in April 2007

National systemNational systemDisaggregating of forest land areasDisaggregating of forest land areasHarvests (KP I(A1.2))Harvests (KP I(A1.2))Young age structure Young age structure Soils: LUC and historic dataSoils: LUC and historic data

LULUCF LULUCF KP KP

Total 697,750 ha (10 %) 252,000 KP a3.3 (36 %)

Young age structure Managed 50 % on peat land 40 % mixed forest

National Forest status National Forest status

28 % potentially thinned by end 2012But only 24 % of affor stands suitable for thinning are thinned

17,423 primary plots (LUC)~1800 permanent sample forest plots (400ha)

Detect national volume @ 95% conf.

National forest inventory (Approach 3)

Biomass PoolsBiomass Pools

(A) Gain loss method(A) Gain loss method Interpolation (annual) Interpolation (annual)

(B) Stock difference method(B) Stock difference method

Repeat inventory (2006 and 2012)Repeat inventory (2006 and 2012)

Time

C

1 5

A

B

But sum A B (t5 - t1)

Single tree modelsSingle tree modelscSITEbCOMPaSIZEy

cSITEbCOMPaSIZEy

y is DBH or H increment usually on a 5 year basis

1) SIZE is individual tree size and vigour (DBH or H)2) COMP is competitive effects

(status in relation to neighbouring trees)3) SITE (plot specific variables)

Calibrated using Coillte data (2943 plots, measured every 5 to 10 years)Hei ght _m

0

10

20

30

40

50

Hei ght _m

0 10 20 30 40

DBH growth (cm/year)

MO

DE

L

Coillte obs. data

Capturing harvests and Capturing harvests and deforestation (deforestation (CCLL))

NFI sample plotsNFI sample plots Coillte data from post harvest inventoriesCoillte data from post harvest inventories Private sector (felling licences)Private sector (felling licences)

NFIdata

Growthsimulator

Growthmodifier

Biomass pools

Harvestdisturbance

Largest uncertainty associated with management assumptionThinning effects

amount of timber harvested (immediate source)size distribution and growth competition

Disaggregating areasDisaggregating areas Increase uncertainty (area)Increase uncertainty (area)

Sub categories are not constant with timeSub categories are not constant with time Transparency v.s. uncertaintyTransparency v.s. uncertainty

Category Area (kHa) 95% confidence %CV Total 697 666 - 728 4 No harvest (KP1(A1.1) 255 240 - 270 6 Harvest (KP1(A1.2) 27 21 - 34 43

KP1(A1.2)KP1(A1.2) LULUCF reported net of harvestLULUCF reported net of harvest

National harvest volumeNational harvest volume KP 1 (A1.2) Harvested areasKP 1 (A1.2) Harvested areas

From NFI sub-sampleFrom NFI sub-sampleGives stand info (BA, vol/ha)Gives stand info (BA, vol/ha)How do we apply this to single tree modelHow do we apply this to single tree model

Effects assortmentEffects assortment Growth modifiers (competition)Growth modifiers (competition)

Assumptions on thinning typeAssumptions on thinning typePDF simulation to remove harvested treesPDF simulation to remove harvested treesIncrease uncertaintyIncrease uncertainty

Young forestsYoung forests 50 % KP forest DBH < 7cm50 % KP forest DBH < 7cm

Biomass algorithmsBiomass algorithmsNational researchNational research

Not all species research on goingNot all species research on going

Data base (e.g. E21)Data base (e.g. E21) Uncertainty not documented or well definedUncertainty not documented or well defined

Growth modelsGrowth modelsNo data < 5cm DBHNo data < 5cm DBHExtrapolateExtrapolate

May not be an issue after repeat inventory (post 2012)May not be an issue after repeat inventory (post 2012)

SoilsSoils

Soils 90% of forest C stockSoils 90% of forest C stock Soils at equilibrium min 20 years after LUCSoils at equilibrium min 20 years after LUC

i.e. steady state in older forestsi.e. steady state in older forests

Soil C stock changeSoil C stock change Soil typeSoil type

Peat emission factorPeat emission factor MineralMineral

Flu = Previous land useFlu = Previous land use FMG = ManagementFMG = Management

isc

isciscisciscisc AFiFMGFluSOCREFSOC,,

,,,,,,,,,, )(

drainagedrainedFForganic EFAC

GIS sources

Soil type

ProductivityTopography

Climate

LUPSIFORISCORINE

Soil C forLULUCF

CARBWARE

Soil C changefactors

Research

Ref C stocks for:

Mineral SoilsMineral Soils

ForestCForestCMichael Wellock, Christina LaPerle, and Ger KielyMichael Wellock, Christina LaPerle, and Ger Kiely

ForestForest C %C %

OrganicOrganic

0-10 cm0-10 cm 28.328.3

10-2010-20 30.830.8

MineralMineral   

0-10 cm0-10 cm 6.46.4

10-2010-20 3.93.9

20-3020-30 3.73.7

PairPair C%C%

OrganicOrganic

0-10 cm0-10 cm 13.513.5

10-2010-20 11.811.8

MineralMineral   

0-10 cm0-10 cm 4.54.5

10-2010-20 3.73.7

20-3020-30 3.43.4Forest Pair

Site: Millstreet, Co. Cork

Preliminary results suggest podzols CSOM ~ 0.86 t C/Ha/yr

Detecting LUCDetecting LUC NFI (18000 plots re-sampled in 2012?)NFI (18000 plots re-sampled in 2012?) CORINE currently used for LULUCF (other land uses and conversions)CORINE currently used for LULUCF (other land uses and conversions)

Only way to track long tern LUC (1990-base year)Only way to track long tern LUC (1990-base year) Poor resolution for forest lands (Resolution 25 ha)Poor resolution for forest lands (Resolution 25 ha)

63 % of afforested parcels less than 25 ha in size 63 % of afforested parcels less than 25 ha in size Over estimation of afforestation on peat soils Over estimation of afforestation on peat soils

CORINE 80%CORINE 80% High resolution data (iFORIS and NFI) 40 %High resolution data (iFORIS and NFI) 40 %

Black, O’Brien, Twomey, Redmond, Barret, in press)

GMES CORINE 2006 (1ha)GMES CORINE 2006 (1ha)

But misclassification issuesBut misclassification issuesBased on comparison with GIS land cover Based on comparison with GIS land cover

cover national datacover national data30 % mismatch 30 % mismatch

IFS grid code IFS land cover classification Area ha

%

IFS peatland cover intersected with CORINE peat land 796,386 69.5 Other IFS land cover intersecting with CORINE peatland 349,789 30.5 7,8 Grassland 198,184 18 8 Scrub 19,264 1.7 12 Rocky complex (limestone) 76,503 6.7

Assimilation of LULUCF dataAssimilation of LULUCF data Forest land remaining forest is not a good proxy for Art 3.4Forest land remaining forest is not a good proxy for Art 3.4 Land converted to forest not a good proxy for Art 3.3Land converted to forest not a good proxy for Art 3.3

Due to the 20 year transition and fluctuation afforested areasDue to the 20 year transition and fluctuation afforested areas

2008 to 2012KP 3.3 and F-L (+16 % difference)KP 3.4 and F-F (-16 %)