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THE SEASONALITY IN THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR
The Italian tourism sector: some ways to correct seasonal adjustment
Elena Zanlorenzi, Head of ResearchEuropean R&D Office
REAG
23-26.06.2010Milan, Italy
INDEX
3. SOME WAYS TO CORRECT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
3. SOME WAYS TO CORRECT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
1. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT 1. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
4. CONCLUSIONS4. CONCLUSIONS
2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR
1. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT1. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
Tourism is a seasonal phenomenon:• natural causes: climatic seasons
• institutional causes: school holidays, time off
• social causes: public or religious holidays
Tourism seasonality affects the entire tourism industry:• tour operators
• travel agencies
• hotels
• transports
Tourism seasonality = monthly fluctuation of the number of tourist nights
Seasonality losses:• additional costs for the PA (ex. parking)
• greater incidence of the fixed costs in the hotels turnover
• decrease of the revenues
• growth of the average room rate
• tourist overcrowding in the high season
• temporary employment
1. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT1. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
The Italian tourist sector is historically affected by seasonal criticalities
• in many locations the tourist season lasts only for 4-5 months per year
• for the remaining 7-8 months hotels and leisure activities are forced to close
• in these months of low season expenses could be higher than revenues
• Italian seaside tourist areas are the most affected by seasonal adjustments
• even for this reason return on investment could not be so attractive for the main international brands
• during the last years some operators tried to get round this matter diversifying the offer: SPA,
wellness centres, business centres, etc.
• these are only local and segmented operation that do not lead to a resolution of the problem
Some evidences about seasonality:• the balanced use of touristic structures does not exclude monthly fluctuations but these are of low
intensity
• different tourism typologies present different seasonality
• cultural tourism is the less affected by seasonality
• seaside tourism is typically affected by seasonality (summer)
• mountain tourism could have 2 seasons (summer and winter)
• wellness tourism could last for 4 seasons
• business tourism is affected by seasonality during holidays
2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR
The tourism economic impact • tourism contributes to GDP for 9,6%
• tourism contribute is equal to 152 billion of euro
• direct tourism industry contributes to GDP for 3,9%
• total overnight stays: 860 mln (of which 358 mln in hotel and extra-hotel accommodation)
• total Italian overnight stays: 546 mln (of which 204 mln in hotel and extra-hotel accommodation)
• tourists expenditure: 75.862 mln of euro (of which 49.495 mln in hotel and extra-hotel accommodation)
• Italian tourists expenditure: 44.049 mln of euro (of which 24.900 mln in hotel and extra-hotel accommodation)
26,5%
16,2%
5,5%15,1%
13,4%
9,9%
9,2%2,4% 1,8%
Accomodations
Restaurants
Bars/coffees
Dress&shoes
Leisure activities
Manufacturing industry
Food
Books&newspapers
Transports
TOURISTS EXPENDITURE BY TYPOLOGY
(2009)Source: Reag work-out on Osservatorio Nazionale del Turismo data
2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR
OVERNIGHT STAYS BY DESTINATION (% -
2009) Source: Reag work-out on Osservatorio Nazionale del Turismo data (2009)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Holiday houses
Hotel and extra-hotel accomodations
TOURISTS EXPENDITURE BY
DESTINATION (% - 2009) Source: Reag work-out on Osservatorio Nazionale del Turismo data 0%
5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
Holiday houses
Hotel and extra-hotel accomodations
2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR
HOTELS TURNOVERSource: Reag work-out on AICA data
HOTELS TURNOVER BY ROOMSource: Reag work-out on AICA data
6,3%
-9,1%
4,3% 3,5%
-2,4%
-15,9%
-5,5%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-0,1%
-2,7%
1,0%0,4% 0,5%
-7,3%-8,1%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR
ROOM OCCUPATION RATE (% - 2009) Source: Reag work-out on AICA data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AVERAGE REVENUE PER AVAILABLE
ROOM (% - 2009) Source: Reag work-out on AICA data
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR
ITALIANS OVERNIGHT STAYS (%) Source: Reag work-out on different sources
FOREIGNERS OVERNIGHT STAYS (%) Source: Reag work-out on different sources
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1987
2007
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1987
2007
2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR
OVERNIGHT STAYS IN CULTURAL
DESTINATIONS (% - 2007) Source: Reag work-out on Osservatorio Nazionale del Turismo data
OVERNIGHT STAYS IN SEASIDE
DESTINATIONS (% - 2007) Source: Reag work-out on Osservatorio Nazionale del Turismo data
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR
OVERNIGHT STAYS IN MOUNTAIN
DESTINATIONS (% - 2007) Source: Reag work-out on Osservatorio Nazionale del Turismo data
OVERNIGHT STAYS IN NATURALISTIC
DESTINATIONS (% - 2007) Source: Reag work-out on Osservatorio Nazionale del Turismo data
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR
OVERNIGHT STAYS IN LAKE
DESTINATIONS (% - 2007) Source: Reag work-out on Osservatorio Nazionale del Turismo data
OVERNIGHT STAYS IN SPA
DESTINATIONS (% - 2007) Source: Reag work-out on Osservatorio Nazionale del Turismo data
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR
Seasonality indexes
• seasonality rate: maximum overnight stays (Smax)/minimum overnight stays (Smin)
• seasonal peak factor (S’): Smax /average overnight stays (Sm)
• maximal utilization constrained by seasonality (MUS): 100/S’
• seasonality underutilization factor (SUF): 100 - MUS
Italy Cultural SPA Nature Lake Mountain Seaside
Seasonality rate 6,2 2,6 5,3 6,2 9,0 13,4 23,8
Seasonal peak factor 2,5 1,4 1,6 2,1 2,2 2,5 3,3
Maximal utilization constrained by seasonality (MUS)
40,2 70,6 63,8 47,9 44,7 39,6 30,2
Seasonality underutilization factor (SUF)
59,8 29,4 36,2 52,1 55,3 60,4 69,8
3. SOME WAYS TO CORRECT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT3. SOME WAYS TO CORRECT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
During the last years some operators tried to get round this matter
diversifying the offer
Some structures provide their clients with :• SPA
• wellness center
• business center
• golf
• etc.
These devices are only local and segmented operation that do not lead
to a resolution of the problem
Identify some categories till now ignored by the tourism sector: could the
investment in these groups of people help the renewal of the sector?
3. SOME WAYS TO CORRECT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT3. SOME WAYS TO CORRECT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
Children (< 6 years old) tourism
• number: 3.400.719 (2019: 3.255.338; -4,3%)
• household income: € 35.432 (+20,9% respect
Italian average income)
• the 31% of the households falls within the 2
classes with the higher income
• tourism propensity: 34,3%
• % on total overnight stays: 4,1%
• overnight stays: 6,7 mln
CHILDREN OVERNIGHT STAYS (%) Source: Reag work-out on various sources
OVERNIGHT STAYS (%) Source: Reag work-out on various sources
• potential demand: 12,9 mln of overnight stays
• potential demand: 7,9% on total overnight stays
• increase in tourism expenditure: +12,0% (direct
2,2 bln of euro; indirect 3,6 bln of euro)
• seasonality rate: 4,0 (before 4,3)
• seasonal peak factor: 2,0 (before 2,1)
• MUS: 49,5 (before 48,0)
• SUF: 50,5 (before 52,0)
14,5%
25,0%
46,6%
13,9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
jan-mar apr-jun jul-sep oct-dec
12,7%
23,3%
52,0%
12,0%13,4%
23,3%
50,5%
12,7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
jan-mar apr-jun jul-sep oct-dec
Before
After
3. SOME WAYS TO CORRECT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT3. SOME WAYS TO CORRECT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
Elderly people (> 65 years old) tourism
• number: 11.457.143 (2019: 13.184.101; +15,1%)
• household income: € 21.117 (-27,9% respect
Italian average income)
• the 31% of the households falls within the 2
classes with the higher income
• tourism propensity: 13,5%
• % on total overnight stays: 5,5%
• overnight stays: 8,9 mln
ELDERLY PEOPLE OVERNIGHT STAYS (%) Source: Reag work-out on various sources
OVERNIGHT STAYS (%) Source: Reag work-out on various sources
• potential demand: 57,3 mln of overnight stays
• potential demand: 35,1% on total overnight stays
• increase in tourism expenditure: +53,0% (direct
9,9 bln of euro; indirect 16,0 bln of euro)
• seasonality rate: 3,3 (before 4,3)
• seasonal peak factor: 1,9 (before 2,1)
• MUS: 52,8 (before 48,0)
• SUF: 47,2 (before 52,0)
17,1%
24,1%
44,0%
14,8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
jan-mar apr-jun jul-sep oct-dec
12,7%
23,3%
52,0%
12,0%
14,8%23,6%
47,3%
14,3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
jan-mar apr-jun jul-sep oct-dec
Before
After
3. SOME WAYS TO CORRECT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT3. SOME WAYS TO CORRECT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
Singles tourism
• number: 6.910.716 (2019: 8.389.609; +21,4%)
• household income: € 17.546 (-40,1% respect
Italian average income)
• the 48% of the households falls within the 2
classes with the higher income
• tourism propensity: 35,0%
• % on total overnight stays: 8,6%
• overnight stays: 14,0 mln
SINGLES OVERNIGHT STAYS (%) Source: Reag work-out on various sources
OVERNIGHT STAYS (%) Source: Reag work-out on various sources
• potential demand: 26,0 mln of overnight stays
• potential demand: 15,9% on total overnight stays
• increase in tourism expenditure: +24,2% (direct
4,5 bln of euro; indirect 7,3 bln of euro)
• seasonality rate: 3,7 (before 4,3)
• seasonal peak factor: 2,0 (before 2,1)
• MUS: 50,8 (before 48,0)
• SUF: 49,2 (before 52,0)
16,9%
24,6%
41,9%
16,7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
jan-mar apr-jun jul-sep oct-dec
12,7%
23,3%
52,0%
12,0%14,0%
23,4%
49,2%
13,3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
jan-mar apr-jun jul-sep oct-dec
Before
After
3. SOME WAYS TO CORRECT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT3. SOME WAYS TO CORRECT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
Groups tourism
• household income: € 29.308
• the 40% of the households falls within the 2
classes with the higher income
• % on total overnight stays: 5,2%
• overnight stays: 8,5 mln
GROUPS OVERNIGHT STAYS (%) Source: Reag work-out on various sources
OVERNIGHT STAYS (%) Source: Reag work-out on various sources
• potential demand: 6,2 mln of overnight stays
• potential demand: 3,8% on total overnight stays
• increase in tourism expenditure: +5,8% (direct
1,1 bln of euro; indirect 1,7 bln of euro)
• seasonality rate: 4,1 (before 4,3)
• seasonal peak factor: 2,0 (before 2,1)
• MUS: 50,8 (before 48,8)
• SUF: 51,2 (before 52,0)
24,6% 25,2%27,2%
23,1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
jan-mar apr-jun jul-sep oct-dec
12,7%
23,3%
52,0%
12,0%13,0%
23,3%
51,2%
12,5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
jan-mar apr-jun jul-sep oct-dec
Before
After
4. CONCLUSIONS4. CONCLUSIONS
Italy Groups Children Single Elderly people
Seasonality rate 6,2 4,1 4,0 3,7 3,3
Seasonal peak factor 2,5 2,0 2,0 2,0 1,9
Maximal utilization constrained by seasonality (MUS)
40,2 48,8 49,5 50,8 52,8
Seasonality underutilization factor (SUF)
59,8 51,2 50,5 49,2 47,2
4. CONCLUSIONS4. CONCLUSIONS
12,7%
23,3%
52,0%
12,0%
16,5%
23,7%
43,7%
16,1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
jan-mar apr-jun jul-sep oct-dec
Before After
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