www.seri.at friedrich hinterberger thomas schauer paul weaver greenaccord v media forum rome, 8th....

www.seri.at

Friedrich Hinterberger Thomas SchauerPaul Weaver

Greenaccord V Media ForumRome, 8th. November 2007

Why “limits to growth” won’t hurt

Sustainable development and economic growth in Europe

F. Hinterberger @ Greenaccord V Media Forum

Born 1959 in Schwanenstadt/Upper Austria

Studies 1978-85: economics and statistics, Universität Linz, Austria

PhD 1985-90: Universität Gießen, Germany

Wuppertal Institute 1993-2000: Project leader, later: acting director for Material Flows and Ecological Economics

Since 1999: Founding President of theSustainable Europe Research Institute

among many other functions: member of the board of the Austrian Chapter of the Club of Rome

Who I amWho I am

Dr.Friedrich HinterbergerDr.Friedrich Hinterberger


PanEuropean Network; Headquaters in 1090 Wien; currently 15 staff800.000 Euro annual turnoverother offices in Germany, soon in F, GR, ...?

Themes: Ecological Economics, Production and Consumption, Globalisation, Science, Policy and Society, Quality of Life

Research: Global, European and national Projects

Communication: Public, new Media

Consulting: Politics, NGOs, Business

ProfileProfile

Sustainable Europe Research InstituteSustainable Europe Research Institute

F. Hinterberger @ Greenaccord V Media Forum 4

Content

1. Limits to growth – revisited

2. Measuring sustainability

3. Economic growth and well-being

4. Scenarios towards a sustainable future


Content






R.Carlson: The silent spring. 1962

K.Boulding: Spaceship earth

Meadows et al: Limits to growth 1972

“Global 2000”

The history of environmental concerns


What is at stake?

At the recently held annual meeting of the Club of

Rome in Madrid, the outgoing IMF general secretary

Rodrigo Rato talked about three serious risks to the

world’s economic growth:

• the instability of the financial markets,

• climate change, and

• demographic change.


Is there a Climate “problem”?

(New) “Limits to growth“ are still relevant

!

www.seri.at0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

EmergingAsia

EmergingAsia

By Region

MBD

North AmericaNorth America

EuropeEurope

Japan/Aus/NZJapan/Aus/NZ

LALA

ME/AFME/AF

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

By Sector

MBD

Res/CommRes/Comm

IndustrialIndustrial

PowerPower

Russia/CaspianRussia/Caspian

TransportationTransportation

80 90 00 10 20 30 80 90 00 10 20 30

World Oil Demand

The “China” Factor


Der Spiegel:

“A new cold war“

The global dimension


‘The linkages between environmental well-being, vulnerability and poverty emerged as a critical issue in 2005. Extreme weather events and new research and data were so dramatic that the year may prove a turning point in the urgency of our awareness and response (GEO, Yearbook 2006)’

‘The Munich Re Foundation, part of one of the world’s leading re-insurance companies, estimated that 2005 had witnessed the largest financial losses ever as a result of weather-related natural disasters, at more than US$200 billion’

Global change


3,5

www.einefueralle.at

1,2 0,5 Global Footprint(in planets)

0 ? 10% 100% Fish stock

x100 ? x10 x1 World trade (6,3% pa)

x50 ? x8 x1 Soja

x25 ? x5 x1 Meat

x16 ? x4 x1 Production of goods (3,9% pa)

x12 ? x3,5 x1 Fossil energy

x9? x3 x1 Wheat, corn etc.

9 bis 11 Mrd. 6,2 Mrd. 2,8 Mrd. people

2057 2007 1957

The table shows dramatic developments over the last 50 years. Continuing this path over 50 more years is impossible (=un-sustainable) We only have ONE planet.

Our “impossible" century


Globale Trends

IGBP, 2004


Nakicenovic, 2006

Nightlights 2000


Nakicenovic, 2006

Nightlights 2070


Content






„you can‘t manage …

what you can‘t measure“

Indicators


Measuring what?

Achievement of pre-defined goals!


Sustainable development is

a development that seeks to meet the demand of the present

generation without compromizing the ability of future

generations to meet their own needs.

The Brundtland Report (1987)

Sustainable development


Measuring what?

Achievement of pre-defined goal!->

From problems to solutions


Economic capitalmachines, software, patents..

Human capitalPeople, education, values

Natural capitalEco-systems, biodiversity, climate

Social capitalRelations, networks, orientation

A comprehensive view on capital

Dr.Friedrich Hinterberger


Why “capital”?

Capital should be preserved: not to be used up

Investment in capital

Only partial substitution

capital „produces“ quality of life

Dr.Friedrich Hinterberger


„Frontpage indicators“

Economic (GDP) growth

(Un) employment

(… environment…) ???

Competition for attention


Products and

services

From Inputs to Outputs


Material flows and ecological rucksacks

Ecological footprints

CO2 rucksacks

Water rucksacks

Measuring the environment


„Frontpage indicators“

Economic (GDP) growth

(Un) employment

Total material consumption, ecological footprint etc.

Competition for attention


Resource Strategy

Figure 1


Indicators

−Two decoupling phenomena are shown in Figure 1:

decoupling of resource use from growing economic activity, which implies a reduction of resource use per unit production (e.g. GDP), and

decoupling of environmental impacts from resource use, which implies a reduction of environmental impacts per unit of resource use

The first mechanism is an on-going development in the EU since economies tend to shift from manufacturing to services.

www.seri.at

www.materialflows.net


Global Used Extraction by Material Category

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

bill

ion

to

ns

Fossil Fuels Metals Ind. & Const. Minerals Biomass


Domestic Extraction per Capita per World Region

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

ton

s p

er c

apit

a

Africa Asia Latin America & Carribbean

North America Oceania Transition Countries

Western Europe World


Domestic material extraction in EU-25 (2005)Global (domestic) material extraction (2005)

Per capita:15.7 t

Per € (EU-12):0.77 kg

Total:7.2 billion t

58.3 billion t 9.0 t 0.?? kgWorld

EU

Global perspectives


Quelle: Giljum et al. 2004

Results

De-coupling of GDP and resource extraction (1980 = 100)


EU-15 external trade: monetary and physical (1999)

Quelle: Giljum und Hubacek 2001

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

tril

lio

n E

UR

O

BalanceExportsImports-250

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

mil

lio

n t

on

s

Latin America

Africa

Asia (excl.Japan)

Former USSR &Eastern Europe

OECD

BalanceExportsImports


Quelle: Der Standard, nach Berechnungen von SERI, 2007

CO2 emited by transport of food (imported vs. domestic production)

CO2 rucksack of food

F. Hinterberger @ Greenaccord V Media Forum Dr. Stefan Giljum

70

• Mathis Wackernagel and William Rees (1992) • Sum of all impacts on the biocapacity through the human use of natural resources

• Scale: product, city, region, national and global level

• Calculation Unit: AreaPhysical limits of the Planet!

• Material and Energy Use converted into Area

• www.seri.at/footprint

Ecological Footprint


Agriculture

Forestry

Pasture

Ecological footprint


Growth of > 80% from 1960 to 2003

2003: 25% Overshoot (1,25 Planets)

long term destruction of “natural capital”

Global Ecological Footprint, 1960-2003

Source: WWF et al., 2006

Global Overshoot


Extraction – Production/Trade – Consumption


Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity by Region (2001)

Source: WWF et al., 2006


CO2-Emissions (in tons) per capita, 2001

CO2-Emissions


20% „reiche“ 80% „arme“Verbrauchen Verbrauchen 20% der Ressourcen80% derRessourcen

Resource use today: 60 Mrd t

Today: unequal distribution


Fair share - unsustainable


Equal resource use: 240 Mrd t


Fair share - sustainable


Equal resource use: 30 Mrd t


More well-being…

… less resource use!

eco-efficiency


Lack of resources (not only energy!) and the einvironmental damage caused by resource use

mean both a danger and a chance for the competitiveness of the (European) economy!

the role of eco-innovation


Lisbon:

growth and jobs!

EU-SDS:

well-being and quality of life

Two European strategies


Eco-Innovation means the creation of novel and

competitively priced goods, processes, systems,

services, and procedures that can satisfy human

needs and bring quality of life to all people with a life-

cycle-wide minimal use of natural resources (material

including energy, and surface area) per unit output, and

a minimal release of toxic substances.“

EU Eco-Innovation Panel

defining eco-innovation


Eco-innovation is an over-arching issue ...

... not just a sector !

From that follows


Meat requires 10x more resources, emissions, ...

Durable products …

Simplify your life!Slowfood

More leisure, less stress

1 Euro „buys“ 3 kg of nature

Regional products

Some elements

All this has important consequences and sets the requirements for (eco-)innovation and social

systems !

New, dematerialized, technologies

Product- service-systems


Does technology save the environment?


All in one


Or like this?


Would technological innovation be enough to reduce resource use?

Worldwide and in Europe in recent decades resource and energy use became more efficient, largely because of the use of new technologies.

However, this did not reduce overall pressures on the environment, because we produced increasingly more goods (rebound effect)


Content






Questioning the „growth paradigm“

Economic growth is, together with population growth, an important driver of global environmental change

While the poorer parts of the world clearly need significantly more income to improve their standard of living, more income in Europe, America and Japan makes less people „happy“

Stress and loneliness increase, consumption looks more and more like an addiction, illness is increasingly a result of excess (obesity, heart disease etc) and not of lack.


Eco-sufficiency

While eco-efficiency aims to improve the effectiveness of material, energy, and land use, eco-sufficiency aims at reducing negative environmental consequences through a reduction of the demand for material consumer goods.

Eco-sufficiency or strong sustainable consumption requires changes in infrastructures and choices as well as a questioning of the levels and drivers of consumption.


For example...

While eco-efficiency could mean driving a car that will use 3 litres

rather than 10 litres of gasoline per 100 kilometres,

eco-sufficiency, in contrast, can mean

using public transport or travelling less far or less

frequently


US constitution: the „persuit of happiness“ as a fundamental goal

GoSD approach: „The overarching objective of sustainable development (SD) (is) to secure and increase the quality of life for all people as a precondition for individual happiness.”

European policy: why – and what for?



a development that seeks to meet the demand of the present


generations to meet their own needs.

Sustainable development



a development that allows for happiness of the present


generations to be happy.

or


The renewed European Strategy for Sustainable Development (EU SDS 2006 - achieved under the Austrian Presidency):

Europeans value quality of life

Well-being and quality of life as an overarching principle

various references throughout the document... (eg. on public health)

A first step!


Security of person

Security of health

Security of „slow time“ / leisure economy

Belongingness (neighbourhood / spirituality)

Tim O'Riordan

WHAT makes us “happy”?


The „good economy“ should serve „the good life“!

E.Phelps, Nobel laureate in economics (2006)

The role of the economy


Beyond GDP

Correcting GDP -> towards a „Green GDP“

Long lists of indicators

Combined indicators

DIRECT measurement of quality of

life/well-being/happiness

Relate these figures to environmental indicators


GDP and well-being (1)

G D P an d L ife Satis faction 1973 - 2002

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

L ife S atis fac tio n

G D P


GDP and well-being (2)


More Well-being with (by far) less environmental impact

II

MI

MI

Y

Y

S

S

WW ****

W … Wellbeing

S … Service provided by economic production

Y … Production / Aggregated Income

MI … Material input

I … Environmental impact

Well-being intensity of services

Service intensity

Material productivity

Environmental impact intensity of MI


II

MI

MI

Y

Y

S

S

WW ****

W … Wellbeing

S … Service provided by economic production

Y … Production / Aggregated Income

MI … Material input

I … Environmental impact

More Well-being with (by far) less environmental impact


Content






www.mosus.net

Is Europe sustainable? Modelling opportunities and limits for restructuring Europe towards sustainability

• Funded by the 5th Framework Programme of the European Union (sub-programme environment and sustainable development)

• Endorsed by the Industrial Transformation Project of the International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP-IT)


Key research questions

• What are the effects of environmental policy measures oriented towards higher resource and energy efficiency on economic policy goals such as growth, competitiveness and employment?

• How effective are different policy measures to reduce environmental pressures (natural resource use / energy and climate)?

• What are the impacts of the implementation of these policy measures for other world regions?


reduced environmental pressure

increased economic growth

more jobs

Scenario results from the MOSUS project (www.mosus.net)

“win-win-win” is possible!

Note: Large differences between countries!


RE

AL

GD

P

8318 Bill. €(2005)

11763 Bill. €(2020)

+ 41%+4% above base

UN

EM

PL

OY

ME

NT

22.9 Mio. (2005)

19.7 Mio. (2020)

Results: HIGH scenario


CO

2-E

MM

ISS

ION

S

3.77 Mio. t(2005) 3.33 Mio. t

(2020)

-12%

RE

SO

UR

CE

PR

OD

UC

TIV

ITY

(DE

)

1160 € / t(2005)

1727 € / t(2020)

+49%

Results: HIGH scenario


Resource-intensive imports from “Anchor countries”

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

in b

illio

n U

S$

Turkey Mexico China Indonesia India Thailand Argentina Brasil


Worldwide resource extraction, three scenarios

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Low High

Bil

lio

n t

on

s

-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

Deviation from baseline scenario (in %)BaseLow High


GDP increases by 41 %

Resource productivity increases by 49 %

Domestic extraction reduces only by 5 %

Rebound effects!

This might give room for further decrease of environmental impacts

But


Overconsumption? (in highly industrialized parts of the world)

How to avoid rebound effects?

Sustainability problems


EN

VIR

ON

ME

NT

AL

CH

AN

GE

an

d P

UB

LIC

F

INA

NC

E

UN

EM

PL

OY

ME

NT

an

d

SO

CIA

L

SE

CU

RIT

Y

Replace income tax (partly) by material input tax, CO2 tax

subsidy-shift, regulations

Reduction of annual working times and increased flexibility

Social security through “negative income tax” (basic income)

Quelle: www.a-und-oe.de

Integrated policies


WO

RK

ING

T

IME

UN

EM

PL

OY

ME

NT

www.a-und-oe.de

10,5 %

3,1 %

37,5 h

30 h

GO

VE

RN

ME

NT

-DE

FIC

IT

+/- 0

A Scenario


Work as self-provider

and self educator

Paid work(full time, part time; self-employed, unemployed)

Vo

lun

tary

wor

k in

the

co

mm

un

ityCa

ring

wo

rk

“mixed work” mixed qualifications, income mixes


Less paid work

= less income= less (material) consumption


Reduce our Environmental Space !

Increase our Well-Being / quality of life !

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ???

Beyond GDP


What do we need for all this?

Policy and business action

Civil society's and individual responsibility

Communication and education

Cultural creativity

And the right facts and figures (measuring SD!)


MICRO: companies and households

MESO: industries

regionsnetworks

MAKRO: countries

EUworld

META: institutions

Multi-level sustainability


heart

brain

handsspirit

... In a holistic way


Thank you for your attention!

Presentation will be available for download at

www.seri.at/measuringprogress

Grazie!

www.seri.at friedrich hinterberger thomas schauer paul weaver greenaccord v media forum rome, 8th....

Documents

friedrich hinterberger

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sustainable future slide

new media consulting

global dimension slide

worlds economic growth

growth wont

new limits