www.usanpn.org signs of the seasons and nature's notebook "a focus on phenology:...
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www.usanpn.org
Signs of the Seasons and Nature's Notebook
"A focus on phenology: Maine"
Jake F. Weltzin, US Geological SurveyEsperanza Stancioff, U Maine Extension/Sea GrantStaff of the USA-NPN National Coordinating Office
Photo: ©Kevin FitzPatrick
• What is phenology?
• Why is it important?
• What are the trends?
• What does this mean?
• Can we get organized?
• What are we finding?
• What's up for 2013…?
Outline
Migration SenescenceReproduction
What is phenology?
…study of timing of plant & animal life cycle events
• Sensitive to change
• Affects critters, people and ecosystems
• Easy to observe
• Happening everywhere
• A "leading indicator"
Why is it important?
Why is it important?
Species response to climate change…
• None
• Adapt locally
– Behavior
– Phenology
– Morphology
– Genetic shift
• Change distribution
• Go extinct!
“Phenology…is perhaps the simplest process in
which to track changes in the ecology of species
in response to climate change.” (IPCC 2007)
Why is it important?
Phenology for many organisms is changing…
Parmesan and Yohe 2003 Nature
Parmesan and Yohe
• Analysis of 677 species
• Long-term datasets
• 62% have advanced timingCamille Parmesan
What are the trends?
What are the trends?
Primack et al. NYT Op-Ed; April 19, 2012
Thoreau
Earlier butterflies…
What are the trends?
Field skipper
Fotolia
Red admiral
Forister and Shapiro 2003 GCB
Steve Scott
Both species: 1 day earlier/year
30 May 1868 30 May 2005Lowell Cemetery, MA
Photos courtesy of A. Miller-Rushing
Many lines of evidence…
What are the trends?
What are the trends?
NASA Earth Observatory; April 19, 2012
Trends vary spatially…
Trends vary spatially, over time...
What are the trends?
Change in timing of spring, 1982 - 2005
Zhang et al. 2007 GRL
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Ch
ang
e in
sp
ring
tim
ing
(d
ays/
de
cad
e)
N = 203
Parmesan 2007 GCB
Trends vary by type of organism…
What are the trends?
English Oak
Winter Moth
Pied Flycatcher
Both et al. 2006 Nature
EARLIER
SAME TIME EACH YEAR
EARLIER
A three-way mismatch…
What does this mean?
What does this mean?
Socio-cultural events out of sync…
Peak bloom was March 20
What does this mean?
Humans must understand, and must adapt…
Nature’s Notebook is a national plant and animal phenology observation program
a project of the USA-NPN
Can we get organized?
We are…
• Scientists
• Government agencies
• Non-profit groups
• Tribes
• Educators
• Learners of all ages
• You…
Can we get organized?
•Tracking… 100s of plant and animal species
•Engaging… 1,000s of scientist and citizen observers
•Observing… 10,000s of organisms
© B. Cole
a project of the USA-NPN
Can we get organized?
What are we finding?
SOS Participant Data Contribution
• 71,893 records
• Data for 54 species (plants + animals)
SOS participants
What are we finding?
Your SOS Indicator Species
SOS participants
What are we finding?2012: warmest March ever recorded in US > 15,000 warm temperature records broken
1st quarter also warmest on record
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/national/2012/3
What are we finding?
American robin
Dates of “yes” reports for Active individuals
Day
of
year
2011 2012
June 15
May 28
Earlier in 2012 than 2011:
• Active individuals• Calls or song• Feeding• Fruit/seed consumption• Insect consumption
Not different between 2012 and 2011:
• Nest building• Singing males
SOS participants
What are we finding?
Red maple
2011 2012
Apr 20
May 10
First documented “yes” for leaf-out phenophases
Day
of
year
Across Maine
What are we finding?
Deciduous treesRed maple, sugar maple + (northern red oak, white oak and American beech)
2011 2012
Apr 20
May 10
First documented “yes” for leaf-out phenophases
Day
of
year
Across Maine
What are we finding?
Apr 10
May 30
Apr 20
May 10
May 20
Apr 30
Year
First reported “First leaf”cloned lilac (Syringa chinensis)
Common and cloned lilacs are similar
Across US
What are we finding?
Courtesy:
Mark Schwartz
Across US
SI-x First Bloom Date Anomalies, 1900-2012
Common and cloned lilacs are similar
Red
map
le (
A.
rubr
um)
Jeong et al., Geophysical Research Letters 2013
What are we finding?Future budburst dates depend on CO2 emissions
Jeong et al., Geophysical Research Letters 2013
What are we finding?
Greatest changes in budburst at northern latitudes2080-2099 period
What's up for 2013?
• Are trees leafing out earlier now than in the past?• Do trees leaf out at different times across New England?
Researchers at Boston University are hoping to answer these
questions by comparing observations of deciduous tree phenology
collected by Nature’s Notebook observers to historical records.
You can help out by continuing to track red maple (Acer rubrum)
and sugar maple (Acer saccharum). The observations you submit
to Nature’s Notebook directly contribute to this research!
Dr. Richard Primack
Dr. Libby Ellwood
www.usanpn.org/nelop
Northeast Leaf-Out Project
Signs of the Seasons
Partnerships make it happen…