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XIV. THE FUTURE OF TOURISM

APPROACHING THE FUTURE (1)

The rapid expansion of leisure travel from the 1960s onwards, precipitated by transportation developments such

as jet engine, continues to influence all aspects of the tourism system today,

but it is the future of tourism to which we now turn our attention

Tourism futurists commonly focus only on the tourism sector and the need to match up trends both on the:

DEMAND SIDE SUPPLY SIDE

In terms of markets and

consumer behaviour with

tends in transportation

In terms of product developments and

the destination

It is easy to “hype up” the future of

tourism and provide a

sensationalist account of future

scenarios from flying cars to virtual reality theme parks

APPROACHING THE FUTURE (2)

There are a number of important reports that cover both the demand and the supply sides of tourism futures:

Tourism of Tommorow

(2005)

Blueprint for New Tourism

(2003)

• Nordin • utilised techniques from futures

research to analyse the driving forces of change fror tourism

• her report is noteworthy for the adaptation of the STEEP methodology

to understanding the environment with which tourism operates

• World Travel and Tourism Council • lays on agenda for the future of the

tourism sector • WTTC met in 2003 to discuss the state

of tourism in the world • this meeting was held against the

background of unpredendented security issues and economic uncertainties for

the sector

A FRAMEWORK FOR TOURISM TRENDS ANALYSIS

THE STEEP MODEL

APPROACHING THE FUTURE (3)

The WTTC’s supply-side agenda for the “new

tourism” has three dimensions:

Governments must recognise travel and tourism as a top priority

Tourism business must balance economics with environment,

people and cultures

Tourism must develop partnerships to share in the

pursuit of long-term growth and prosperity

APPROACHING THE FUTURE (4)

Forecasts by WTO suggest that, despite the setbacks of the early twenty-first century, tourism has grown

456 million international arrivals (1990)

687 million intenational arrivals (2000)

1 billion international arrivals (2010)

1.56 billion international arrivals (2020)

Europe East Asia The Pacific

The Americas

International arrivals will continue to be

centrated in:

East Asia The Pacific

Major growth areas will be long-haul

travel and newer destinations

APPROACHING THE FUTURE (5)

At a micro scale VisitScotlanc (2005) has combined

demand and supply side trends to develop a series of

future scenarios for tourism which examine issues such as:

• What will be the climate in Scotland in the future and how should tourism adapt CLIMATE CHANGE

• Who will they be, what will be their tastes and motivations and how can the Scottish tourism product be developed to meet their future needs

THE FUTURE TOURISM

CONSUMER

• The impact of future technologies on consumer purchasing of the Scottish tourism product TECHNOLOGY

Social trends that we indentify will continue to encourage the growth of tourism, they will also act to change the development of products

Economic development

Tourism growth

Climate change that threatens

to nature

Alter the nature of many

destinations

Demographics are inextricably entangled with the social trends that are leading to later marriage, couples deferring having childeren, increased number of single and childless-couple households, and the enhanced role of

women in travel activity

These trends are the changing values of the population which affect

consumer behaviour, in particular the adoption of family values and the search for safety and security, all

wrapped into cocooning behaviour where the home becomes the basis for

leisure activities

THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT FOR TOURISM: FUTURE DRIVERS

SOCIAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE (1)

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

For the majority of the traditional generators of

both domestic and international tourism,

population growth is either static or even negative

In the traditional generating markets for tourism, population are ageing as birth rates fall and people live longer

Markets for the goods and services that older people need have clear implications for the tourism sector and it is the ageing baby boomer

generations of the developed world that are one of the most important

market segements

The younger generations will remain in the youth market longer as they

marry later, continue with their youth lifestyle

SOCIAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE (2)

SOCIAL TRENDS (1)

Family structures in the developed world are changing with a: Tastes are polarising into either

comfort or adventure-orientated activities

• Trend to later marriage

• More one-parent families

• Having children at a later age

Each of these trends has implications for the consumer behaviour of

tourists and the consequent development of tourism product

SOCIAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE (3)

SOCIAL TRENDS (2)

These are three key social trends that have specific

implications for tourism:

Worldwide, more people will choose to live in cities

In many countries, both the status and influence of women are on the increase

Populations are becoming more culturally diverse as improved communications, increasing wealth and mobility stimulate people to try to understand other cultures

INTERNATIONAL AND POLITICAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE (1)

TRADE BLOCS AND REGIONALISM

Opportunities for tourism will be enhanced by the

formation of a number of trading blocks across the

globe as country groupings come together in

deregulated economic alliances North

American Free Trade Agreement

(NAFTA)

European Union (EU)

Association of South-East Asian

Nations (ASEAN)

In the EU, the adoption of the

euro as a common currency has

demonstrated power of these

blocs

INTERNATIONAL AND POLITICAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE (2)

GLOBALISATION (1)

Key drivers of globalisation in tourism are:

Decreasing costs of international travel allowing access to

most markets in the world

Increasing income and wealth in the

generating countries

Newly emerging destinations and the

increased demand for international travel

Adoption of free trade agreements, removing

barriers to international transactions

Computer and communications

technology encouraging “e-

business”

Worldwide acting suppliers utilising global distribution

systems (GDSs)

INTERNATIONAL AND POLITICAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE (3)

GLOBALISATION (2)

In future the consequence of globalisation for the tourism

sector will include:

Increasingly standardised products

Procedures and global brands

Pressure for alliances and mergers

Increased concentration in the marketplace

Pressure on vulnerable businesses (SMEs)

SAFETY, SECURITY AND RISK (1)

Tourism is vulnerable to natural and man-made crises, unexpected event that affect traveller confidence in a destination

From the industry’s point of view, the WTTC

recommends a twin-track approach to security:

Promoting the virtues of a coordinated strategy and operational measures across all parts of the tourism sector

Convincing the public sector and industry employees that the reality of tourism must be to coexist with terrorism, providing that the risk is mitigated

SAFETY, SECURITY AND RISK (2)

Approach of the WTTC is based upon four principles:

1. • Coordinate policy actions and communications

2.

• Develop secure operating evironments for travel, including both equipment and personnel

3.

• Access, share and work with the best intelligence to prevent future incidents and security breaches

4. • Deny terrorists freedom of action

THE ENVOLVING RESPONSE TO CRISES IN THE TOURISM SECTOR

THE UNWTO’S CRISIS GUIDELINES FOR THE TOURISM INDUSTRY

BEFORE THE CRISIS – BE PREPARED •Prepare a crisis management plan • Be prepared fot promotional activity

• Review security systems • Be research ready

DURING THE CRISIS – MINIMISE DAMAGE

• Communicate from the front line • Devise promotional messages

• Ensure secutity of the operation • Do tactical research on the situation

AFTER THE CRISIS – RECOVERING TOURIST CONFIDENCE

• Communicate confidence • Use promotion imaginatively

• Evaluate security measure • Use research effectively to build

confidence

CLIMATE CHANGE (1)

Climate is altering the environment for tourism and has

increasingly become a concerning focus for

policy and management issues

The social, demographic and political drivers identified above have generally encouraged economic growth and

tourism

There is no eoubt that the raising of the earth’s temperature and the consequent rise in sea level will

affect tourism destinations

Fear of skin cancer and cataracts may reduce the demand for products such as

beach tourism

CLIMATE CHANGE (2)

In 2003 the UN World Tourism Organization issued The

Djerba Declaration on Tourism and Climate Change uring

governments to:

Adopt the Kyoto protocol and its approximations on greenhouse gas emissions

Research and collaborate on climate change

Move tourism up the agenda on climate change discussion

Implement sustainable water use practices and the ecological management of sensitive areas

Raise consumer awareness of the issue

CARBON OFFSETTING: CHANGING TOURIST BEHAVIOUR (1)

Examples of carbon offsetting schemes include:

Carbon offsetting is an approach to neutralising the impact of an individual’s greenhouse gas emissions

•The Gold Coast City Council in Australia has calculated that for every tourist that stays on the Gold Coast, the Council needs to plant two trees to offset the tourist’s carbon emissions during they stay 1.

•Tourism companies such as lastminute.com provide their customers with carbon offsetting schemes to help them be “carbon neutral travellers” 2.

•Climate Care will use travellers’ payments to fund energy renewal, energy efficiency and forest restoration 3.

CARBON OFFSETTING: CHANGING TOURIST BEHAVIOUR (2)

Carbon offsetting sparked controversy:

Carbon offsetting schemes ar often crude and open to abuse, particulary in

terms of the accusation of “greenwashing”

Carbon offsetting does not reduce the emissions of

carbon dioxide

Particularly controversial it he notion that planting

trees offsets carbon emissions from flying

FUTURE MARKETS FOR TOURISM

Many tourism futurists have suggested thet the maturing of the tourism market is creating a “new tourist”, or “post-tourist”, who can

be characterised as:

• Experienced

• Sophisticated

• Demanding

Traditional annual family holiday mostly spend in a beach resort may be gradually superseded by multi-

interest travel and a range of creative and innovative travel experiences

NEW TOURIST (1)

Knowledgeable Discerning Seeks quality Seeks

participation

MOTIVATIONS FOR TRAVEL

Education and curiosity motives

To an extent, the new sophisticated traveller has

emerged as a result of experience

Tourists from the major generation regions of the

world have become frequent travellers, are

linguistically and technologically skilled

NEW TOURIST (2)

Education and enhanced

communications

More sophisticated

requirements from holidaymakers

New experiences combined with

rewarding activities

Filling the leasure time

Satisfaction of cultural,

intellectual and sporting interests

For the new tourist travel is not just

about being at the destination, but

experiencing being there as travel

becomes the medium for personal

fulgilment and indentety

The sophistication of the customer will have an impact upon product development

throughout the industry

THE EXPERIENCE ECONOMY (1)

Four types of experience that can be engineered by

“experience providers”:

•Can be added to existing product

•This “engages” the visitor, but does not normally “involve” all but one or two visitors in the entertainment

1. ENTERTAINMENT

•Again the is the passive recipient of the experience, but is more actively engaged than with entertaining experience

2.

EDUCATION

•This type of experience is much more about involving the visitor actively by immersing them in the experience

3.

ESCAPIST

• with this experience, the visitor is again immersed but does not impact upon the environment of the experience

4.

AESTHETIC

FROM COMMODITIES TO EXPERIENCES

COMMODITIES GOODS SERVICES EXPERIENCES

OFFERING Fungible Tangible Intangible Memorable

ATTRIBUTE Natural Standardised Customised Personal

SUPPLY Stored Inventories after

production

Delivered on demand

Revealed over a duration

SELLER Trader Manufacturer Provider Stager

BUYER Market User Client Guest

FACTOR OF DEMAND

Characteristics Features Benefits Senstaions

MARKET SEGMENTS (1)

Every tourist is different, bringing a unique blend of:

Experience

Motivations

Desires

Tourism is increasingly following the trend of other

industries towards customising

Technology enables products to be

tailored to meet individual tastes

MASS TOURISM PHILOSOPHY - said that tourism products should

appeal to all tastes and be sold at a low price in order to attract as

wide range of customers as possible

MARKET SEGMENTS (2)

• Provide detailed customer profiles

• Identify motivations, needs and determinants

• Offer an appropriate marketing mix and service delivery strategy

Traditionally, tourism marketers have been using geographic and demographic criteria in order to describe their markets, but psychographics

and behavioural criteria will be increasingly used in order to:

THE DESTINATION (1)

As the tourism system responds to the trends, tourism flows will change as new generators of both domestic and international tourists, and

new detinations, emerge

In the future, the focus of tourism will be on the destination as new management

techniques are adopted and the attention to volume will give way to concepts of vistor

experience and value

The concepts of the tourism area life cycle and strategic planning

provide a much needed long-term perspective in this

respect

FUTURE DESTINATIONS: PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT

Resource-based

destinations are adopting :

Sophisticated planning

Management

Inpretitive techniques to provide both a velcome and a rich experience for the tourist

Ensuring protection of the resource itself

Good planning and management of the destination liest at the

heart of providing the new tourist with high-quality

experience and it may be that tourists will have to accept

increasingly restricted viewing times at popular sites, higher

prices and even replicas of the real thing

FUTURE DESTINATIONS: SUSTAINABLE ENTERPRISES AND DESTINATION VALUE CHAINS (1)

Enterprises at the destination are also responding to the drive for sustainable destinations

Networks or alliances of business and consumers along

value chain will increase business efficiencies and

improve communication

This occurring in two ways:

• Increasingly the techniques and approaches for sustainable tourism practice are being operationalised and published as guidelines and manuals for sustainable enterprises

• Destinations will benefit from future trends in the tourism value chain

FUTURE DESTINATIONS: SUSTAINABLE ENTERPRISES AND DESTINATION VALUE CHAINS (2)

Two clear trends

The first is the trend towards the use of artificially, technologically enhanced destinations such as theme parks, cruises and resorts

• Las Vegas, the Disney theme parks and Carnival Cruise Line

The second trend is for authentic, well-management contract with nature and indigenous communities

• Eco-tourism, heritage tourism

TRANSPORT (1)

The influence of transport will be diluted by the emergence of other

new drivers of change

Transportation itself will benefit from technological change that will:

• Improve the speed

• Reduce the cost

• Improve the fuel efficiency of travel

The future will also see a change in the

management and approach to transport

enterprises

TRANSPORT (2)

Environmental factors will be a concern for all transport modes in the

future

Air transport emissions are unlikely to be reduced

in the medium term

Competition between transport modes will increase in the future,

characterised by improved rail services and products, the realisation of the environmental advantages of

rail and continued technological development in the area of high-

speed train networks

Forcast on international transport predict that technological

developments, increased airline efficiency and labour productivity

savings will offset andy rises in aviation fuel prices

HUMAN RESOURCES FOR TOURISM (1)

A high quality of professional human resources in tourism will allow

enterprises to gain a competitive edge and deliver added value with the

service

Tourism is a high-touch, high-tech, high-

involvement industry where it is the people

that make the difference

Changing markets, industry restructing and more competitive

domestic and international markets are placing great burdens on their

expertise

HUMAN RESOURCES FOR TOURISM (2)

In the past, tourism has been characterised by a lack of sophistication in human resource policites and practices, imposed by outmoded styles of human resource

management and approaches to operational circumstances

Educators and trainres have a role to play by facilitating innovation, encouraging empowerment, motivating the workforce and, in partnership with industry, working to

overcome the specific problems of tourism

A high-quality tourism workforce can be achieved only through high standards of tourism education and training

VIRTUAL REALITY TOURISM

The debate as the real impact of VR is still ongoing:

• PROPONENTS say that as cocooning behaviour increasingly places the home as a central and secure base for leisure activities, VR may depress demand for the real thing

• OPPONENTS contend that VR will simply whet the appetite for more travel through enhanced exposure to, and awareness of, the product, as VR is used simply as an advanced form of tourist brochure

Technological innovations such as virtual reality (VR) may one day replace the authentic travel experience

SPACE TOURISM (1)

Space adventures has a series of tourism products based upon space adventures

and experiences

For space tourism, the destination may indeed include the Moon, but it can also be thought as present-day theme parks on Earth – such as the Kennedy Space

Center at Cape Canaveral, Florida, or the simulated ride at Cape Canaveral – the

“Shuttle Lounch Experience”

Although space tourism can be thought of as an activity in the distant future, it is estimated that by 2020 space technology will be applied to intercontinental travel

SPACE TOURISM (2)

Space Advantures has four basic “experience” products:

• The company is only one in the world to take clients into space to the International Space Station (ISS) 1. ORBITAL FLIGHTS

• A sub-orbital space program involving a flight into space with weightlessness 100 km above the earth 2. SUB-ORBITAL FLIGHTS

• A range of training experiences which include products such as weightless training at Russian space centres and spacewalks from the ISS

3. SPACEFLIGHT TRAINING AND SPACEWALKS

• State-of-the-art training experiences for adventureres 4. STEPS TO SPACE

• “zero-gravity” parabolic flights 5. SPACE-RELATED FLIGHT

ADVENTURES