xsi pv technologies roadmap - creativecreation
TRANSCRIPT
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xSi PV technologies roadmap
Overall coordination - TKI: Wim Sinke and Wijnand van Hooff
ECN: Ingrid Romijn, Jan Kroon, Bonna Newman and Arthur Weeber
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Crystalline silicon learning curve
2004
2006 c-Si price increase
due to poly-Si shortage
2012 overproduction
in Asia
2016: 0.6 USD/Wp
Bell labs
PV-magazine / Active Solar
3
Why composing a roadmap?
• to steer and focus research and development activities
• to measure progress of the overall innovation program
• to benchmark status and progress to the international PV sector
in the end to facilitate the process of achieving the goals and ambitions of
the Dutch PV sector (NL PV sector)
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Contents
• General goals of the Dutch PV sector
• Considerations for the roadmap
– Efficiency, costs, energy yield
Roadmap
• Innovation goals
• Research topics
• Examples of ongoing research
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General goals and ambitions for NL PV sector
Sector goals and ambitions
(NB: indicative numbers still to be verified) Unit
Achieved Ambition for Potential
2015 2020 2030 2050
Total installed capacity of solar PV
systems in NLGWp 1,5 6 20 >100
Annual solar energy generated by PV
systems in NL
(total annual consumption is ≈100 TWh)
TWh 1,2 5 16 >80
Annual turnover of the Dutch PV sector Billion € 2 3 4 6
Annual export of the Dutch PV sector Billion € 0,2 1 2 3
Total employment in het Dutch PV sector FTE 10.000 15.000 20.000 30.000
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Innovation is essential to achieve sector goals
NL PV sector goals and ambitions can be achieved through:
• Social innovations – make it easy and attractive for people to buy solar PV
• Business innovations – new business models to earn money with solar PV
• Technology innovations – cheaper, more efficient PV systems that look
great!
Technology innovations
• Wafer based crystalline silicon PV technologies (xSi PV)
• Thin films PV technologies (TF PV technologies)
• Hybrid tandem PV technologies (combines the first two technology fields)
• Balance of System components & application development
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Installed capacity in 2015• World: 242 GWp (~90% is xSi)
• NL: 1.5 GWp (~1.3% of Dutch electricity use)
• TKI general target: 100 GWp in 2050
FhG ISE, PV report 20 October 2016
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Considerations for the roadmapThis part of the roadmap focuses on xSi MODULES
• Types of modules that are considered:
• Low cost
• High power
• Ready for integration (BIPV, shade, …)
Goals are defined for
• Module costs : €• Extrapolate from historical data
• Module power : Wp
• cell efficiency - limits
• cell to module changes
• Module energy yield : kWh
• Irradiation (front/rear, direct/diffuse, …)
• Temperature dependence
• Module lifetime : years
• # years with >80% performance
Goal: reduce LCOE (€/kWh)
LCOE ~ 𝒄𝒐𝒔𝒕𝒔 (
€
𝑾𝒑)
𝒖𝒕𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒔𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒌𝑾𝒉
𝒌𝑾𝒑,𝒍𝒊𝒇𝒆𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒆(𝒚𝒓)
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Price and Costs trends:
Expectations 2030:
• World: 250 GWp1 TWp
• Price 0.3 USD/Wp
What about costs?
• Healthy industry: margin!
Around 2030??
2004 2012
2016
Reduce costs in €/Wp
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Efficiency limits of crystalline silicon
October 2016: 26.3%
achieved by Kaneka Corp using
IBC-HJ technology
Average in industry: 18 – 22%
Cell efficiency: 21% 29%
Module efficiency: ~1% lower
Typical cell efficiencies:
“black body” limit for c-Si: ~32%
“practical limit”: ~ 29%
Albert Polman, Mark Knight, Erik C. Garnett, Bruno Ehrler, Wim C. Sinke
Science 15 Apr 2016: Vol. 352, Issue 6283, DOI: 10.1126/science.aad4424
Increase energy in Wp
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Energy yield: irradiation
After Duffie & Beckman: Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes
• Also use rear side of the module
• Improve light capture from low angles
Increase energy yield in kWh/kWp
Will increase generated energy for
the same module
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Summary:
Innovation goals for different solar PV product groupsLowest cost solar PV products 2016 2020 2030 2050
Power output/ surface (efficiency) Wp/m2 (%) 192 (19.2%) 206 (20.6%) 220 (22%) 242 (24.2%)
Power output / 60 cells module Wp 308 330 350 390
Costs/ unit surface area EUR/m2 100 82.4 <66 <50
Costs / max. power output EUR/Wp 0.52 <0.4 <0.3 <<0.2
Lifetime at >80% performance Years 25 30 35 35
Yield 1. improved T-coefficient
2. bifacial applicationkWh/ kWp
900
954
910
1200
920
1350
930
1430
Highest power output solar PV products 2016 2020 2030 2050
Power output/ surface (efficiency) Wp/m2 (%) 200 (20%) 238 (23,8%) 270 (27%) 280 (28%)
Power output / 60 cells module Wp 320 380 430 450
Costs/ unit surface area * EUR/m2 120 119 108 <112
Costs / max. power output EUR/Wp 0.6 – 0.8 0.5 – 0.6 0.4 <0.4
Lifetime at >80% performance Years 25 30 35 35
Yield improved T-coefficient by HJ kWh/ kWp 900 920 950 950
Best fit for integration solar PV products 2016 2020 2030 2050
Recycling – craddle – to - craddle Not yet LCA should be part of all cell/module research. Actual
implementation will depend a lot on government regulations
Form freedom – applicable on % of rooftops / facades 20% 30% 50% 60%
Shade tolerance – gain over standard PV modules 2% 10% 20% … %
Color flexibility – adaptable without efficiency losses Blue, black + green, yellow + red All colors
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Focus on:Lowest cost solar PV products 2016 2020 2030 2050
Costs / max. power output EUR/Wp 0.52 <0.4 <0.3 <<0.2
Lifetime at >80% performance Years 25 30 35 35
Yield 1. improved T-coefficient
2. bifacial applicationkWh/ kWp
900
954910
1200920
1350930
1430
Highest power output solar PV products 2016 2020 2030 2050
Power output/ surface
(efficiency) Wp/m2
%
200
20%
238
23,8%
270
27%
280
28%
Power output / 60 cells
moduleWp 320 380
430 450
Best fit for integration solar PV products 2016 2020 2030 2050
Form freedom – applicable on % of rooftops /
facades
20% 30% 50% 60%
Shade tolerance – gain over standard PV
modules
2% 10% 20% 50%
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Crystalline silicon cell and module
or
p-type
n-type
From goals to research topics: loss analysis
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Losses in crystalline silicon cells
• Metallization grid: shading
• Other optical losses: absorption in cell layers, internal (back) reflection
• Recombination losses: at contacts, surfaces, p-n junction, in the emitter
and in the bulk
• Ohmic losses: lateral and contact resistances
29.3% maximal efficiency 21% n-Pasha cell
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Losses in modules
Optics: Absorption and
reflection in glass,
encapsulant
Resistive losses at the
interconnections
Optics: Absorption, reflection
in encapsulant and rear foil
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Research topics in 4 main R&D areas
1. Materials p- and n-type silicon, encapsulation materials, glass, ….
2. Junction formation and passivationhomo- and hetero- junctions, carrier selective, dielectric layers
3. Metallization and interconnectioncurrent collection on cell level, electrical interaction cell module
4. Light managementoptical properties on cell and module level, interaction cell module
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The research playing field
TRL 1:basic
principle
observed
TRL 2: technology
concept
TRL 3: experimental
Proof of
Concept
TRL 4: validation
in
laboratory
TRL 5: validation in
relevant
environment
TRL 6: demonstrate
technology
TRL 7: prototype at
pilot
scale
TRL 8: system
completed
and qualified
TRL 9: system
proven in
operation
Invention Concept validation Prototype bring concept towards industrialization
demonstration operation
Institutes:
Universities: laboratory
pilot
Industry: equipment factory
TRL = technology readiness level
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The Roadmap
• Goals in 4 main platforms
• Low cost xSi PV
• High power xSi PV
• Sustainable & reliable PV
• Integration of xSi PV
• Topics in 4 main R&D area’s
• Materials
• Junction / passivation
• Metallization
• Optics
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Under construction
< 0.3 €/Wp
27% module
> 35 years
Goals 2030:
1150 kWh/kWp
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R&D topics for lowest cost xSi PV products
Materials p-type silicon
Module materials
Materials in general
Junction /
passivation
n++ and p++ doping
Al2O3/SiNx stacks
Carrier select. Contacts
Light
management
Texture on multi
Bifacial operation
Annual Energy Yield
Metallisation
/interconnect
Printed metallization
Interconnection
Bifacial modules
Hydrogenation & gettering of impurities
glass-glass concepts, desert proof PV
High ohmic and selective diffusions
Black silicon / combined with selective emitter
Light trapping strips, light scattering busbars
Simulation and validation of AEY models
Stencil print, n,p-contacting pastes
Multiple busbars, low T soldering or glueing, shingled modules
White bifacial module
LPCVD polysilicon
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Less material usage, recycling of materials, NO more silver sage
Bifacial modules, tracking of module s and / or systems
Copper metallization
Lowest cost solar PV products 2016 2020 2030 2050
Costs / max. power output EUR/Wp 0.52 <0.4 <0.3 <<0.2
Lifetime at >80% performance Years 25 30 35 35
Yield 1. improved T-coefficient
2. bifacial applicationkWh/ kWp
900
954
910
1200
920
1350
930
1430
PECVD / ALD deposition of (graded) dielectrics
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Research on low cost modules
Ready for industrial implementation: TRL6-8
Bifacial n- or p-type, using polysilicon passivating contacts and printed
metallization
Implement cells into bifacial modules for 30% more kWh/kWp
TKI projects Nexpas and
Antilope
EU project Solar highways
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R&D topics for highest power output xSi PV
products
Materials n-type silicon
Module materials
Junction /
passivation
p-n-junctions
Carrier select. Contacts
Beyond the limits of ‘simple’
silicon
Light
management
dv. optics cell level
Adv. optics module level
Beyond the limits of ‘simple’
silicon
Metallisation
/interconnect
Printed metallization
Alternative metallization
Foil interconnection
Hydrogenation, oxigen stacking faults, ingot yield
Encapsulant, foil interconnection
p/n junction formation and passivation
Nanostructures, nanowires, black silicon combined with selective emitter
Light trapping foils, light scattering structures
Low T / non firing through pastes
Cu/Ag plating, evaporated contacts
Bifacial IBC, glued shingled modules
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Quantum dots, nanowire solar cells, bandgap manipulation, tandems…..
Up / down conversion, multiple exitons, tandems, ……..
Highest power output solar PV products 2016 2020 2030 2050
Power output/ surface
(efficiency) Wp/m2
%
200
20%
238
23,8%
270
27%
280
28%
Power output / 60 cells
moduleWp 320 380
430 450
High band gap passivating contacts,ALD Metal-oxides,
PECVD a-Si, Hetero Junctions
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Research on high power modulesNovel topics, going from lab to institute: TRL3-5
Transparent carrier selective contacts and nanowire metallization
Back contact modules with IBC cellsUsing Metal oxides or poly-Si passivating contacts
TKI project Compass
TKI project IBChampion
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Generic R&D topics for sustainability & reliability2016 2020 2030 2050
Recycling – craddle – to - craddle- Not yet
LCA should be part of all cell/module research. Actual
implementation will depend a lot on government regulations
Lifetime at >80% performance Years 25 30 35 35
Yield 1)improved T-coefficient by
introducing Heterojunctions
2) bifacial application
kWh/ kWp900
954
920
1046
950
1150
950
1209
Materials Silicon
Module materials
characterization
Junction /
passivation
Stability of junction and (field)
passivation
characterization
Light
management
Soiling stability
Light trapping
characterization
Metallisation
/interconnect
Reliability
Stability
Characterization
Oxigen in Cz: PID, LeTID
(photo)chemical stability, delamination after stress
UV-ID and LID on module level
Anti-soiling (foil, structured glass), combination with LTF
Soldered and glued contacts w/o FF losses
IEC stability tests for all new materials
Leakage current behavior and control
Desert proof applications
PID on cell level, influence of charges
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Fast (inline) characterization of bulk lifetime, defects and impurities
Separate surface, contact and bulk recombination
Fast (inline) optical measurements on cells and modules
Accurate inline measurements of resistive losses on cell and modules
25
Research on lifetime and reliability
Potential induced degradation
understanding of underlying
physics
Stability tests on rooftop
Fundamental study of failure
mechanisms
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0 20 40 60 80 100
Eta
lo
ss (
Jsc*
Vo
c l
oss
)
PID time (h) @ -1000V, 60°C, 85% RH
optimized B-emitter/optimized dielectric
non-optimized B-emitter/optimized dielectric
non-optimized B-emitter/improved dielectric
optimized B-emitter/non-optimized dielectric
non-optimized B-emitter/non-optimized dielectric
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Eta
lo
ss (
Jsc*
Vo
c l
oss
)
UV time (h) @ 351 nm, 1.55W/m2/nm; total UV 62 W/m2BA
2007 – 2016
Various projects
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R&D topics for integration of xSi productsBest fit for integration solar PV products 2016 2020 2030 2050
Form freedom – applicable on % of rooftops / facades 20% 30% 50% 60%
Shade tolerance – gain over standard PV modules 2% 10% 20% … %
Color flexibility – adaptable without efficiency losses Blue, black + green, yellow + red All colors
Materials Module materials
Light
management
Location / position
color
Metallisation
/interconnect
Different sized / freeform shade
tolerant modules
Low cost or high power (mini) modules serve as building blocks
Parallel / series mini-module in module
Smart modules, power optimizers
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Tracking of modules / racks of modules
Large scale modules
Other topics for applications will be added in a next update of the
crystalline silicon roadmap
Colored modules, thermal management by IR
interference filters
Remote system modelling on energy yield
Smart cell power management in modules
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Research on implementationsShade tolerant / smart modules
TESSERA module
Building applied or integrated
Low-current
diode
Exasun
Tesla
Various TKI projects
28
TKI Urban Energy roadmap
• Steer and focus research
• Measure progress
• Benchmark internationally
Research platforms and areas
defined
xSi goals for 2030:
• Cost < 0.3 €/Wp
• Module efficiency 27%
• Lifetime > 35 years
• Energy yield 1150 kWh/kWp
Summary
< 0.3 €/Wp
27% module
> 35 years
Goals 2030:
1150 kWh/kWp
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Thank you for your attention!
For questions:[email protected]
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