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地方政府与投融资平台：基于政府担保和激励视角的委托-代理模型陈其安，陈抒妤，沈猛

（重庆大学经济与工商管理学院，重庆 400030）【摘要】在对地方政府与投融资平台之间的关系进行全面考察的基础上，基于政府担保和激励视角构

建地方政府与投融资平台之间的委托-代理模型。研究结果表明，地方政府对投融资平台的最优激励力度、投融资平台高管人员付出的最优努力水平以及地方政府获得的预期效用水平与投融资平台项目投资规模、投融资平台高管人员的能力水平以及地方政府从投融资平台项目投资产出中获得的隐性额外收益正相关；与投融资平台项目投资周期和外部经营环境风险负相关。从理论上解释了我国地方政府投融资平台资产规模和银行贷款债务不断增加、省级政府投融资平台治理效率优于市县级政府投融资平台、地方政府参与投融资平台公司治理的力度普遍不大、投融资平台高管人员付出的努力水平普遍不高，以及投融资平台公司治理水平普遍较低的原因；以现有省级政府投融资平台为基础，整合市县级政府投融资平台、完善投融资平台高管人员市场选择机制、实施地方政府官员任期内的决策责任终身负责制、强化投融资平台的独立法人人格和市场经济主体地位，以及完善地方政府官员考核评价晋升激励机制等方面提出了优化地方政府与投融资平台公司委托-代理关系的政策建议。关键词：地方政府；投融资平台；委托-代理；政府担保；激励

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基于贝叶斯网络的工程风险管理研究——以港珠澳大桥主体工程设计风险为例丁斅 1,2，徐峰 1,2

(1. 南京大学工程管理学院，南京 210046；2. 社会科学计算实验中心，南京 210046)

【摘要】重大基础设施工程是一类与国计民生息息相关的工程项目，因此，对于重大决策正确性的研究对于提升决策管理水平具有极其重要的现实意义。然而，由于重大工程往往以“孤本”形式存在，且涉及的人员、地域繁多，使得其研究常常具有历史数据资料缺乏、现场数据收集困难等特点。针对这些困难，结合港珠澳大桥项目的工程专家意见，基于贝叶斯网络原理，结合 Expectations Maximization算法和Clique-tree propagation算法，采用结构化系统开发方法，提出了一套用于重大工程设计方案的贝叶斯网络风险评估方法。案例部分，利用 GeNIe 2.0软件平台为港珠澳大桥建设项目的主体工程部分构建了一个包含 22 个节点的三层贝叶斯网络。通过最后的敏感性分析、风险等级分析和先后验概率比较，获得了很多有实际意义的结论，包括发现了 SCP新技术、基槽开挖工期以及管节预制循环周期等 7 项关键风险。最后，探讨了关键风险因素的应对方法，并对结果中具有普世意义的风险进行了讨论与总结。

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基于空间与技术异质性的能源基础设施选址决策葛世龙 a，黄东梅 a，吴其阳 b，于可巧 a

（南京审计大学 a. 工程管理学院；b. 组织人事部，南京 211815）【摘要】大力发展可再生能源是应对全球能源变革和环境压力的一条有效途径。可再生能源在

空间分布上不均衡，能源供需结构呈逆向分布，能源技术还具有异质性和互补性，直接影响到可再生能源发展规模的确定。因此，能源基础设施选址关系着能源战略布局，直接影响能源领域的投资效率。基于能源技术异质性、区域分布非均衡性、资源互补性等特征，剖析了能源基础设施选址决策中的关联性，利用 ANP 法分析环境、社会、技术、经济等评估准则的关联性，明确能源基础设施选址决策是多指标、多准则的，从指标层面描述了空间差异性，并确定了各个准则的重要程度。基于此构建了多重选择的目标规划模型，设定相关目标的理想值来讨论选址问题，并通过算例验证了模型的有效性。

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基于实时路况信息的灾后应急配送路径选择系统黄辉，吴翰，杨佳祺，未珂

（西北工业大学管理学院，西安 710129）【摘要】灾害发生后的次生事件会随时改变救援物资运输路径选择。综合考虑救援路径多个属性，针对

救援物资配送路网中各路段的实时情况，提出救援路径变更临界值的概念。运用改进的最短路算法及次短路算法，实时给出最优救援路径及临界值，以期达到救援物资在兼顾风险控制的情况下尽可能快地运抵物资需求点的目的。通过仿真得到的数据来供决策者提前规划路线资源的分配。最后，给出了具体算例及其仿真结果。

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[13]张国平. 有效雨量和滑坡泥石流灾害概率模型[J].气象，2014,40(7) :886-890

可再生能源发电并网的多方合意合约设计孔令丞，朱振宇，涂改革，张为四

（华东理工大学商学院，上海 200433）【摘要】为了满足可再生能源发展的需求，政府须解决可再生能源发电并网问题。然而，在政府目前

电力定价机制下，发电方与电网之间的利益存在冲突。针对可再生能源电力产品产出和需求的随机性，企图双方可通过签订收益共享合约，同时分别以享受政府相应补贴的方式来解决可再生能源并网的困境。当收益共享合约能够协调发电方与电网之间构成的供应链时，得出了合约参数间的相互关系、配额系数的相关特征。最后，数值模拟验证了合约模型结果的正确性。该理论通过合约的设计并结合政府补贴政策，为政府、发电方与电网的多方合意提供了一种新途径。

关键词：可再生能源；随机性；收益共享合约；供应链协调参考文献[1]林伯强,李江龙.基于随机动态递归的中国可再生能源政策量化评比[J].经济研究,2014(4):89-104.[2]Luoa S, Sethib S P, Shic Ruixia. On the optimality conditions of a price-setting newsvendor problem[J].

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Letters,2011,39:28-31.[7] Fouad E O , Konstantin K. Dynamic conformance and design quality in a supply chain: an assessment of

contracts’ coordinating power[J].Ann Operational Research ,2013,211:137–166.

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under revenue sharing contracts[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2017,183(A):53-65.[9] Bo Van der Rhee, Glen S, Van der Veen J A A, et al. Revenue-sharing contracts across an extended supply

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基于突变理论的海上运输关键节点脆弱性度量李晶，李宝德，王爽

（大连海事大学交通运输管理学院，辽宁大连 116026 ）【摘要】明确海上运输节点的脆弱性是保障海上运输关键节点安全的重要基础。针对海上运输节点安

全威胁突发性特点，构建基于因子分析的改进突变模型，并对我国海上通道关键节点脆弱性进行实证分析。结果显示，我国海上运输通道的关键节点中，台湾海峡脆弱程度最低，望加锡海峡脆弱程度最高，而马六甲海峡、巴拿马运河、英吉利海峡等则处于中间位置。在此基础上，进一步研究了各关键节点脆弱性的主要成因。

关键词：水路运输；关键节点；脆弱性；突变理论；随机因素参考文献[1] 张超,孔静静.关联基础设施系统相互作用模型与脆弱性分析[J].系统管理学报,2016,25(5):922-929.

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基于计算实验的资源受限多项目调度策略优化李迁 a，张怀明 a，丁翔 b

（南京大学 a.工程管理学院；b.政府管理学院，南京 210093；）【摘要】资源受限多项目调度策略研究是对传统单一项目资源调度问题的扩展，资源在多项目间不同

的分配策略会影响到项目的工期安排及企业收益情况。论文在考虑资源受限的情况下，分析工程业主的不同激励策略对供应商的资源调度策略及其收益影响。研究结果为工程业主设计有效激励策略、供应商多项目资源调度方案决策等提供支持和参考。

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“政府-市场”二元作用下的我国重大工程组织模式：基于实践的理论构建李永奎，乐云，张艳，胡毅

（同济大学经济与管理学院，上海 200092）【摘要】相比于一般工程组织，重大工程的战略意义和公共产品属性决定了其组织模式具有“政府-

市场”二元性的本质特征；与此同时，我国体制、机制和制度情境的特殊性又决定了重大工程组织模式的多样性和高度复杂性。基于中国重大工程的实践智慧，利用跨学科理论，通过对多个经典重大工程案例的交叉分析，构建“政府—市场”二元作用下的重大工程组织模式的理论框架和基础内涵，包括制度视角下的二元作用机理及主导模式的生成和选择机制，复杂性视角下适应能力导向的重大工程组织结构、功能和性能，以及演化视角下重大工程组织模式和治理机制的共同演化等，以期对我国重大工程组织的实践及其模式发展趋势提供指导和理论支撑。

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国际视域下重大基础设施工程社会责任的演进刘哲铭，隋越，金治州，杨旭

（上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院上海 200030）【摘要】立足于国际视域，采用内容分析与案例研究相结合的方法，对重大基础设施工程社会责任的

演进历程与发展脉络进行了系统归纳和详细梳理，建立了重大基础设施工程社会责任演进模型，揭示了其社会责任的演进规律，并通过两个典型案例对重大工程社会责任演进规律进行了验证。此外，还结合西方发达国家的重大工程社会责任的演进经验提出了符合我国国情的政策建议。

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均衡和绩效：重大航天工程总体部方案设计麦强，王宁，安实

（哈尔滨工业大学管理学院，哈尔滨 150001）【摘要】总体部是我国重大航天工程设计过程中采用的一种创新性的方案设计模式，其对工程主要分

系统进行总体设计的思想及优化控制方式与传统的分散独立设计模式完全不同。在考虑了分系统复杂相关性的方案设计框架下，构建了总体部和分散独立方案设计模式的系统设计模型。与分散独立方案设计模式下的 Nash均衡不同，总体部模型的均衡解是 Stackelberg-Nash均衡。还应用基于 agent 的仿真方法比较了总体部和分散独立方案设计模式的均衡状态和绩效。仿真结果证明，总体部方案设计模式既有助于避免系统设计方案陷入某些分系统的局部最优解，也有助于提高系统的整体设计绩效。并且，在总体部方案设计模式下，采用顺序的设计策略有助于提高系统方案的均衡稳定性和绩效，即先由总体部门优化重要分系统的设计方案，再分散搜索剩余分系统的设计方案。本研究证明了总体部方案设计模式在重大航天工程系统方案设计中的有效性，有助于“综合集成”方法的发展和应用。

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溢出效应下集群企业安全生产决策的演化路径

梅强 1，仲晶晶 2，张菁菁 1，刘素霞 1 (1. 江苏大学管理学院，江苏镇江 212013；

2. 常州工学院经济与管理学院，江苏常州 213022)【摘要】为探明溢出效应下政府相关部门管制策略对集群企业安全生产决策的影响，构建了集群企业

之间安全生产决策交互的演化博弈模型，分析了系统均衡点的存在性及稳定性，并通过数值仿真的方法展示出集群企业安全生产决策在溢出效应下的演化模式。研究发现：集群企业不同安全生产决策下收益取值的大小会影响系统均衡点的个数和稳定性；在一定范围内，事故企业面临的工伤 (亡)赔偿以及经济处罚额度越高，系统越有可能向“安全生产投入”的方向演化；政府相关部门“一刀切整体停产整顿”的管制策略在集群企业之间造成的负外部溢出效应越显著，系统越有可能向“安全生产不投入”的方向演化。

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基于计算实验的施工现场安全适应性分析及其应用祁俊雄 1a，李珏 1a，王红卫 1a,1b

（华中科技大学 1a.自动化学院；1b.管理学院，武汉 430074）【摘要】针对目前重大工程施工现场安全分析方法在解释安全事故形成规律和定量分析、预测等方

面的局限性，提出一种施工现场安全适应性分析方法，通过刻画施工现场安全系统的整体演化行为，解释施工现场安全事故的涌现现象，进而分析施工现场动态调整其安全状态以适应施工安全需求的适应能力。考虑施工现场安全适应性分析过程的难点，基于计算实验进行施工现场安全适应性分析，并结合盾构施工的具体问题背景进行应用实践，为揭示施工现场安全事故产生规律，制定具有针对性和预防性的安全管理措施提供新的模式。

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基于政府多重功能分析的重大工程“激励-监管”治理模型邱聿旻，程书萍

（南京大学工程管理学院，南京，210093）【摘要】在我国，政府深度参与重大工程建设各个阶段，承担多重的、动态的重要功能，不同阶段的

不同功能影响着重大工程治理体系的构建以及社会效益的实现。构建相互独立的、权责清晰的建设主体和监管主体，能够充分发挥政府监管作用，保证治理的科学性。从政府承担的不同功能入手来探讨重大工程治理问题，创新性地提出一个以政府为主导的“政府式委托代理”治理结构，并在此基础上构建“激励-

监管”治理模型，对比有无监管条件下的帕累托最优解，并结合数值分析进行验证。结果表明，有效的政府监管能够显著提升建设主体努力水平和工程整体效益，且随着监管主体监管水平的提高，能够有效降低工程风险。尤其对于重大工程这一类具有复杂性、深度不确定性的高风险工程来说，较高的监管水平能够有效防治工程风险，提升工程整体社会效益。政府应当努力提升治理能力，通过科学手段引导重大工程相关行业提升创新能力，促进社会进步。

关键词：重大工程；“政府式”委托代理；“激励-监管”模型；政府监管；政府多重功能参考文献 [1] Ma H, Zeng S, Lin H, et al. The societal governance of megaproject social responsibility[J]. International

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大数据技术下重大工程组织系统集成模式施骞，黄遥，陈进道，丁雪

（同济大学经济与管理学院，上海 200092）【摘要】首先，通过文献对大数据技术的发展趋势及其在工程项目管理中的应用进行了分析研究，同

时就技术变革下重大工程组织复杂性的适应问题进行了理论探讨。在此基础上，结合跨组织流程的虚拟组织协同管理理念和集成项目交付的组织结构形式，并以数字化信息为中心提出对重大工程组织结构和业务流程重构的实施建议。进而，构建了基于大数据代理服务的重大工程组织系统集成模式。最后，通过案例分析了大数据相关技术下重大工程组织系统协同管理的可行性和必要性。

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带有多重空间干涉约束的工程调度优化陶莎，盛昭瀚

(南京大学工程管理学院，南京 210093)

【摘要】工程活动的空间干涉会延迟活动进度，降低活动质量，甚至引发事故，威胁员工的生命安全。针对这一问题，研究考虑多重空间干涉的工程调度优化问题。对工程中的空间资源和空间冲突进行系统地分类，建立带有多重空间干涉约束的工程调度优化模型并设计一种求解该问题的启发式算法——禁忌模拟退火算法。分别例举一个现实的工程案例和随机生成的算例群进行计算实验，结果表明，算法能快速生成项目调度计划方案，有效避免或减少多重空间干涉并尽可能地缩短工期，为工程管理者提供决策支持。

关键词: 工程调度；三维空间资源；空间干涉；活动质量；禁忌模拟退火参考文献[1] Gomes H C, das Neves F A, Souza M J F. Multi-objective metaheuristic algorithms for the resource-

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制度压力、环境公民行为与环境管理绩效:基于中国重大工程的实证研究王歌 1,2，何清华 1，杨德磊 3，燕雪 4，于涛 1

（1. 同济大学经济与管理学院，上海 200092；2. 华中农业大学公共管理学院，武汉 430070；3. 河南财经政法大学工程管理与房地产学院，郑州 450000；

4. 南京大学工程管理学院，南京 210093）【摘要】以重大工程为研究对象，选取“环境公民行为”作为中介变量，构建制度压力对环境管理绩

效影响的实证模型。通过对重大工程中 128 位项目管理层的问卷调查，采用基于偏最小二乘法的实证模型研究发现，制度压力的三个维度对环境管理绩效两个维度的影响机制截然不同。其中，模仿性和规范性压力对环境管理策略和实践均产生显著正向影响；而强制性压力仅对环境管理策略具有显著正向影响，并未对环境管理实践产生显著影响。“环境公民行为”在模仿和规范压力与环境管理策略和实践之间具有部分中介的作用。研究结论对于在“政府-市场”二元制度背景下提升中国重大工程的环境管理绩效水平提供了新的启示。

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PPP项目财务风险：融资结构和宏观环境的联合调节效应王莲乔，马汉阳，孙大鑫，俞炳俊

（上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院上海 200030）【摘要】公私合作（Public-Private Partnership，PPP）工程的财务风险管控是项目成功的关键，受到

其内部融资结构和外部宏观环境的影响。基于复杂系统理论和制度理论，利用亚洲开发银行在 2010~2015

年的 358 个国际 PPP 项目数据，实证分析验证了融资强度与财务风险之间的关系，并进一步探究了私营部门投资比例和国家宏观环境两者对这一关系的联合调节效应。研究发现，融资强度对 PPP 项目财务风险有正向影响，私营部门投资比例负向调节了这一影响，且该调节作用依赖于国家宏观环境的不同维度。

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重大工程管理理论演化与发展路径薛小龙，王璐琪

（哈尔滨工业大学管理学院，哈尔滨 150001）【摘要】重大工程是一类对我国政治、经济、社会、科技发展、环境保护、公众健康与国家安全具有

重要影响的大型公共工程，有必要对其基础理论的形成与发展进行梳理，以更好地指导重大工程实践。重大工程管理理论与实践的差距为理论发展带来挑战和机遇。在分析科学理论形成及发展基本原理后，结合重大工程特点，总结重大工程管理理论理论形成过程。在重大工程历史演化基础上，分析重大工程管理理论评价的维度和标准，梳理重大工程管理理论五个发展阶段，指出当前重大工程管理理论发展仍处于理论累积阶段，据此构建以可持续为战略目标、智能化为战略路径、能力构建为实施保障的重大工程管理理论发展框架，为重大工程实践提供理论参考。

关键词：重大工程；理论演化；发展路径参考文献[1] 国家统计局《 2016 年统计公报》评读 [EB/OL].

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复杂性管理：港珠澳大桥主体工程管理思想与实践创新张劲文，朱永灵

（港珠澳大桥管理局，广东珠海 519015）【摘要】复杂性工程管理，是在目标驱动下，“管复杂人、理复杂事”及处理“人事纠缠”的过程。

港珠澳大桥主体工程管理思想形成和实践过程中，遵循和践行“从认识论、到方法论、到实践论”螺旋式上升路径，形成了以“目标-策略-标准”金字塔模型作为工程管理策划框架的构建方法；同时，依托港珠澳大桥工程管理实践，形成了“定位、识别、策划、推介、实施、激励”六步超越法。

关键词：港珠澳大桥；复杂性；工程管理；金字塔模型；六步超越法参考文献：[1] Flyvbjerg B. The oxford handbook of megaproject management[M]. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017.

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[12] Daniel P A, Daniel C. Complexity, uncertainty and mental models: From a paradigm of regulation to a

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基于前景理论的重大基础设施工程风险管理行为演化博弈赵泽斌 a，满庆鹏 b

（哈尔滨工业大学 a. 管理学院；b. 土木工程学院，哈尔滨 150001）【摘要】在重大基础设施工程系统复杂性与不确定情况下，风险管理主体的策略选择行为与稳定状

态往往受到其角色、利益、风险偏好和感知差异的影响。为了更好地刻画重大基础设施工程风险管理过程中公共部门和私人部门的行为决策动态演变过程，在演化博弈分析中引入前景理论和风险感知因素，通过前景价值和权重函数对传统支付矩阵参数进行修正，分析双方风险管理策略选择过程和演化结果的稳定条件，从风险感知角度诠释双方的行为倾向原因和稳定策略，仿真分析不同参数对演化结果的影响。研究结果表明，双方风险管理行为演化博弈存在 5 个均衡点，但是由于工程复杂性和主体有限理性产生的认知偏差、乐观偏见和反射及损失效应，使得系统在现实中不易收敛于稳定点并达到最佳风险管理状态，风险管理成本、处罚、风险损失及分担比例等参数对双方行为演化结果产生不同程度的影响，当参数调整通过临界值时能够影响风险管理策略的选择倾向和稳定性。

关键词：重大基础设施工程；风险管理；前景理论；演化博弈；风险感知参考文献[1] Cicmil S. Understanding project management practice through interpretative and critical research

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[17] 尹贻林 , 徐志超 , 邱艳 . 公共项目中承包商机会主义行为应对的演化博弈研究 [J]. 土木工程学报 ,

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有限预知信息下集装箱码头泊位与岸桥联合在线调度郑斐峰, 乔龙亮，黄基诞

（东华大学旭日工商管理学院，上海 200051）【摘要】针对码头船舶作业计划中通常存在较大比例的、需要临时排班的加班船需求，提出了具有有

限预知信息的集装箱码头泊位与岸桥联合调度 over-list 在线模型。在分配每艘船舶服务请求时假设预知后续一个船舶请求的信息，并着重考虑了由 3 个相连泊位组成的混合型泊位类型、配置 5 个岸桥且只存在两种请求的联合调度模型；针对最小化最大完工时间的优化目标，设计出了具有最优竞争比 5/4 的联合调度在线策略；同时，证明了当缺少预知能力时不存在竞争比小于 4/3 的在线策略。上述结论表明，有限的预知能力可以有效地改进联合调度策略的竞争性能。数值实验结果进一步验证了所设计策略具有良好的执行性能。

关键词：排序；集装箱码头；在线策略；竞争比；预知信息参考文献[1]12月班轮准班率大幅下滑[Z]. 航运界, http://www.ship.sh/news_detail.php?nid=14681, 2015-01-16.

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terminals[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2010, 202(3), 615-627.

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[6] Turkogullari Y B, Taskin Z C, Aras N. Optimal berth allocation and time-invariant quay craneassignmentin container terminals[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2014, 235(1): 88-101.

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[8] Vacca I, Salani M, Bierlaire M. An exact algorithm for the integrated planning of berthallocation and quay crane assignment[J]. Transportation Science, 2013, 47(2): 148-161.

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承包商地理多样性与国际竞争力的实证研究陈龑，黄心雨，薛浩，王良燕

（上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院上海 200030）【摘要】根据美国《工程新闻纪录》（Engineering News Record，ENR）2015年发布的年度国际工程

承包商 250 强榜单，中国和美国是上榜企业数量最多的两个国家，两国上榜企业所获合同数额相近，而海外营收占比及海外业务区域分布差异明显。研究基于组织学习理论，从地理多样性的视角对中美工程承包商国际竞争力的差异展开了实证研究，研究发现：承包商海外业务涉及国家数与其国际竞争力呈正相关关系，承包商母国与业务涉及国的心理距离负向调节以上关系；另一方面，承包商海外业务区域分布与其国际竞争力呈负相关关系，而心理距离则正向调节以上关系；此外，对于中美承包商而言，以上关系均存在国家差异性。

关键词：国际多样性；竞争力；心理距离参考文献[1] 吴彦俊,林翰,刘刚. EPC 项目分包商能力成熟度的理论分析[J]. 管理世界, 2014 (12): 184-185.

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