yakima basin total water supply available march 2005 presented by: quentin kreuter river operator...
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Yakima Basin Total Water Supply Available
March 2005
Presented by:
• Quentin Kreuter River Operator • Chris Lynch Civil Engineer, PE • Kate Puckett River Ops Supervisor• David Murillo YFO Manager
Season’s Summary• 106% average (1981-2000) System storage • El Nino conditions – warm and dry• Dry Oct – Feb, 53% of average precipitation• Extremely poor snowpack, 22% average• 34% prorationing estimate
Yakima Basin March 2005
JAN FEB M AR APR M AY JUN JUL AU G SEPO C T N O V D EC0
100
200
300
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
Cu
mu
lativ
e P
reci
pita
tion
(in
che
s)
013.5
29.5
54.5
84.3 89.4
Average, 1971-2000
W Y 2001
W Y 2005
0
100
200
300
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
Yakima BasinCombined Cumulative Precipitation5 Reservoir Sites, 1971-2000
87 % 47 % 58 % 74 % 17 %
Oct-Feb: 89.4 in. 53 % of Avg.
JAN FEB M AR APR M AY JU N JUL AU G SEPO CT NO V DEC
0
100
200
300
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
Cu
mu
lativ
e P
reci
pita
tion
(in
che
s)
013.5
29.5
54.5
84.3 89.4
Average, 1971-2000
W Y 1977
W Y 2005
0
100
200
300
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
Yakima BasinCombined Cumulative Precipitation5 Reservoir Sites, 1971-2000
87 % 47 % 58 %
Oct-Feb: 89.4 in. 53 % of Avg.
74 % 17 %
JA N FEB M A R APR M A Y JU N JU L AU G S EPO C T N O V D E C0
100
200
300
400
20
40
60
80
120
140
160
180
220
240
260
280
320
340
360
380
Sn
ow
Wa
ter
(in
che
s)
Average
W Y 2001
W Y 2005
0
100
200
300
400
20
40
60
80
120
140
160
180
220
240
260
280
320
340
360
380
0.0 4.114.2
42.2 43.354.9
Average based on the greater of 1971-2000 or period of record. Totals derived from 8 Yakima forecast sitesCayuse, Corral, Stampede, Olallie, Fish, Bumping, Domerie, Tunnel Avenue
Yakima Basin2005 Snow Water
61%
NRCS SWE North SouthDec 1 21% 31%Jan 1 31% 37%Feb 1 20% 25%Mar 1 21% 22%
O ct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep0
100
200
300
400
20
40
60
80
120
140
160
180
220
240
260
280
320
340
360
380sn
ow
wat
er
equ
ival
ent (
inch
es)
LEG ENDAverage
2005
1979
1977
1973
0
100
200
300
400
20
40
60
80
120
140
160
180
220
240
260
280
320
340
360
380
Average based on the greater of 1971-2000 or period of record. Totals derived from 8 Yakima forecast sitesCayuse, Corral, Stampede, Olallie, Fish, Bumping, Domerie, Tunnel Avenue
Yakima Basin2005 Snow Water
Some historic data estimated for Corral, Cayuse, Olallie, & Fish
JAN U AR Y FEBR U AR Y M AR C H APR IL M AY JU N E JU LY AU GU ST SEPTEM BERO C TO BER N O VEM BER D EC EM BER
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR
BUREAU OF RECLAMATION
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
ME
AN
DA
ILY
SY
ST
EM
IN
FL
OW
(cf
s)
M inim um System Q uM axim um System Q uW Y 2005 System Q uAverage System Q u
SUM OF INFLOW TO SYSTEM RESERVOIRS SUMMARY HYDROGRAPHS
W ATER YEARS 1981-2000
2005 System Unregulated Flow VolumeOct-Feb 616 KAF, 113 % Avg.
JAN UAR Y FEBR U AR Y M AR C H APR IL M AY JU N E JU LY AU GU ST SEPTEM BERO C TO BER N O VEM BER D EC EM BER
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR
BUREAU OF RECLAMATION
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
4,400
4,800
5,200
5,600
6,400
6,800
7,200
7,600
8,400
8,800
9,200
9,600
ME
AN
DA
ILY
SY
ST
EM
OU
TF
LO
W (
cfs)
M inim um System Q dM axim um System Q dW Y 2005 S ystem Q dAverage System Q d
SYSTEM RESERVOIRSSUM OF OUTFLOW S
SUMMARY HYDROGRAPHSW ATER YEARS 1981-2000
2005 System Observed Flow VolumeOct-Feb 219 KAF, 89 % Avg.
JANUARY FEBRUARY M AR C H APRIL M AY JU N E JULY AU GU ST SEPTEM BERO CTO BER N OVEM BER D EC EM BER
YAK IM A R IVER N R PAR KERM EAN D AILY N ATU R AL D ISC H AR G E
SU M M AR Y HYD R O G R APH SW ATER YEAR S 1981-2000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
50,000
52,000
54,000
56,000
58,000M
EA
N D
AIL
Y D
ISC
HA
RG
E (
cfs)
L EGEN DYAK IM A R IVER N R PAR KER AVER AGE QU
YA KIM A R IVER N R P AR KER M AXIM U M Q U
YAK IM A R IVER N R PAR KER M IN IM U M QU
YA KIM A R IVER N R P AR KER W ATER YEAR 2005
U N ITED STATES D EPAR TM EN T O F TH E IN TER IO R
BU R EAU O F R EC LAM ATIO N
2005 Parker Unregulated Flow VolumeOct-Feb 1045 KAF, 93 % Avg.
JANUARY FEBRUARY M ARCH APRIL M AY JU N E JULY AU GU ST SEPT EM BERO CTO BER NO VEM BER D EC EM BER
YAKIM A R IVER N R PAR KERM EAN D AILY REG U LATED D ISCH AR G E
SU M M AR Y HYD R O G R APH SW ATER YEAR S 1981-2000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
27,000
28,000
29,000
31,000
32,000
33,000
34,000
35,000
36,000
37,000
38,000
39,000M
EA
N D
AIL
Y D
ISC
HA
RG
E (
cfs)
L E GE N DY A K IM A R IV E R N R P AR K E R M A X IM U M Q D
Y A K IM A R IV E R N R P AR K E R A V E R A G E Q D
Y A K IM A R IV E R N R P AR K E R M IN IM U M Q D
Y A KIM A R IV ER N R P A R K ER W A TE R Y E A R 2005
U NITED STATE S D EPAR TM EN T O F TH E IN TER IO R
BU R EAU O F R EC LAM ATIO N
2005 Parker Observed Flow VolumeOct-Feb 558 KAF, 74 % Avg.
JA N U A R Y FE B R U A R Y M AR C H A P R IL M AY JU N E JU LY AU GU ST S E P TE M B E RO C TO B E R N O V E M B E R D EC EM BER
R ESER VO IR SYSTEM STO R AG EW ATER YEAR S 1981-2000
0
400,000
800,000
1,200,000
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
240,000
280,000
320,000
360,000
440,000
480,000
520,000
560,000
600,000
640,000
680,000
720,000
760,000
840,000
880,000
920,000
960,000
1,000,000
1,040,000
1,080,000
1,120,000
1,160,000
SY
ST
EM
RE
SE
RV
OIR
ST
OR
AG
E C
ON
TE
NT
(a
cre
-ft)
LEGEN DM AXIM UM RESERVO IR SYSTEM STORAG E
AVERAG E RESERVO IR SYSTEM STO RAG E
M INIM UM RESERVO IR SYSTEM STO RAG E
W Y 2005 RESERVO IR SYSTEM STO RAG E
U NITED STATES DEPARTM ENT O F THE INTERIO R
BUREAU O F R EC LAM ATIO N
Yakima Basin System Storage
2005 Yakima System StorageMarch 1, 689 KAF, 106 % Avg.
JA N U A R Y FE B R U A R Y M AR C H A P R IL M AY JU N E JU LY AU GU ST S E P TE M B E RO C TO B E R N O V E M B E R D EC EM BER
R ESER VO IR SYSTEM STO R AG EW ATER YEAR S 1981-2000
0
400,000
800,000
1,200,000
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
240,000
280,000
320,000
360,000
440,000
480,000
520,000
560,000
600,000
640,000
680,000
720,000
760,000
840,000
880,000
920,000
960,000
1,000,000
1,040,000
1,080,000
1,120,000
1,160,000
SY
ST
EM
RE
SE
RV
OIR
ST
OR
AG
E C
ON
TE
NT
(a
cre
-ft)
AVER AG E R ESER VO IR SYSTEM STO R AG E
W Y 2001 R ESER VO IR SYSTEM STO R AG E
W Y 2004 R ESER VO IR SYSTEM STO R AG E
W Y 2005 R ESER VO IR SYSTEM STO R AG E
W Y 1977 R ESER VO IR SYSTEM STO R AG E
U NITED STATES DEPARTM ENT O F THE INTERIO R
BUREAU O F R EC LAM ATIO N
LEG EN D
Yakima Basin System Storage
2005 Yakima System StorageMarch 1, 689 KAF, 106 % Avg.
Yakima Basin, River Operations Meeting, March 2005
Climate Prediction Center Outlook
Period Temperature Precipitation
• Mar-May Above Average Dry• Jun-Aug Warm/Equal Chance Equal Chance
“Synopsis: A transition from weak warm-episode (El Niño) conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected to continue during the next three months.” CPC March 3, 2005
Current Drought Condition(click on this text)(click on this text)
MARCH 1, 2005 TWSA ESTIMATE APR 1-SEP 30
Parameter +/-/= LOW
LIKELY HIGH
Apr-Sep Natural Flow at Parker Estimate + 450 690 950 Return Flow Estimate + 275 280 300
April 1 Estimated Reservoir Content + 720 730 750 TWSA = 1445 1700 2000
YRBWEP TITLE 12 ACQUISITION + 2 2 2 TWSA Subtotal = 1447 1702 2002
SEP 30 EST RESERVOIR CONTENT - 76 76 76 FLOW OVER SUNNYSIDE DAM - 130 135 140
TWSA FOR IRRIGATION = 1241 1491 1786 NONPRORATABLE ENTITLEMENT - 1070 1070 1070
REMAINING TWSA = 171 421 716 PRORATABLE ENTITLEMENT 1239 1239 1239
% RATIO= REMAINING TWSA/PRORATABLE ENTITLEMENT
14 % 34 % 58 %
TITLE 12 FLOW REQUIREMENTS 300 300 300 INCLUDING YRBWEB ACQUISTION
FLOW 302 302 302
**All values in units of 1,000 acre-ft unless otherwise specified
Historical TWSA Estimates by Month & YRBWEP Title XII Target flows, Commencing WY 1995.Month Mar’s
AprXII Apr XII May XII Jun XII Jul XII Aug Sep
YEAR KAF cfs KAF cfs KAF cfs KAF cfs KAF cfs KAF KAF1977 2037 1978 3088 2678 2341 1433 920 1979 2770 2657 2460 1964 1980 3268 3147 2705 2121 1981 2690 2367 2296 1979 1982 3433 3256 3005 1983 3453 3392 2941 2271 1984 2956 2786 2501 2200 1985 3106 3111 2868 2395 1529 899 1986 3061 2668 2284 1800 1367 1987 2558 2559 2297 1661 1301 1988 2377 2253 2065 1710 1349 1989 2946 3071 2666 2192 1990 3446 3268 2824 2417 1717 1991 2938 2962 2742 2261 1854 1992 2853 2422 2268 1497 1155 788 3241993 2062 1974 1842 1405 1126 774 4151994 2169 2016 1691 1191 934 593 2831995 3284 600 3044 500 2666 500 2088 400 1572 400 1996 3268 600 2872 400 2530 400 2003 400 1463 400 1997 4055 600 4542 600 3836 600 2670 600 1935 600 1998 3193 500 2982 500 2548 400 2017 400 1536 400 1999 4179 600 4198 600 3649 600 3017 600 1913 600 2000 3319 604 3305 604 2691 504 2175 404 1615 404 2001 1820 304 1678 304 1483 301 1185 301 930 301 609 3192002 3121 501 3316 601 2879 501 2358 501 1631 4012003 2492 302 2644 302 2437 402 2003 402 1321 302 8692004 2879 402 2553 302 2076 302 1662 302 1255 302 854 5072005 1700 302
Avg 2946 2849 2540 2024 1457 779 335Values in blue italics are based on adjusted or adopted forecast. 1463 2004 Mid JuneThe forecast does not include October water from April 1993 onward. XII flow includes YRBWEP lease and acquisition (L&A) water when not an even 100.
Summary Reservoir Storage near averageEl Nino winterDry October - FebruaryExtremely low snowpack Reduced fish flow targets34% Prorationing Transitioning to Nino Neutral Spring/Summer Let it RAIN
Yakima Basin March 2005, WY 2005