Yama's worksUsing geomagnetic data

(1) 2003-10-29 (Halloween) event: quick development in 6 min.

(2) 2000-11-08 event: Isolated southward IMF propagation.

(3) SSN-K (and SSN-Kp) relation: non-linearly low since 2004

(4) 1986-9-12 event: PC-5 pulsation affecting ions

(5) 2002-5-19 event: Sunward propagating structure = aurora

2003-10-29 event

=> SW = 2000 km/s

Kiruna data gives most smooth curve

Ground ∆B + auroral image

evening-midnight

morning

0611:40 UT

0613:40 UT

0615:40 UT

0617:40 UT

IQA≈01 LT

Kiruna (65° GMLat) K index during the current maximum #24 (2011~) is nearly the same as values at solar minimums.

note: 21-24 UT means 22-01 LT, and magnetic midnight sector when aurora activity causes large K.

Extremely low solar activity since last solar minimun

Effect on the Earth? (SCOSTEP VarSITI program)

SSN – Kp (subdivided by different phases)

2. Kp since 2004 are the lowest for the same SSN

1. Each solar cycle must be subdivided by different phases (because the solar wind condition is different for the same SSN)

Min

Max

Incl.

Decl.

Reconstruct Kp from SSN(note: subdivide by different phases)

⇒ reconstruct within standard deviation except the recent 10 years. ⇒ change from 2004 is clear

“Chance of minor storm@high-latitude” by NOAA vs. observed Kp %

of o

bse

rve

d K

p (

larg

est

of t

he

da

y)

(Anna Larsson, high-school student project)

For the same prediction, Kp values are (model is different between 2000 ⇔ 2011): 2011-2012 < 2007-2008 & 2000-2001 < 2003-2004

2000-11-08 event

Unique IMF Bz=+10 nT -3 nT +10 nT change

Only once in 50 year’s Kiruna data (examined all data from 1954)

All polar geomagnetic stations showed similar signature, propagating tailward with the solar wind velocity

Presented at EGS 2001 (EGU = EGS + EUG), but could not publish because I got sick when I finished analyses

solar wind

Kiruna

AU

AL

X

Y

Z

1986-9-12 eventViking conjugate

Finland = conjugate + onlineKiruna = only analogue data

Viking

2002-5-19 event

IMAGE(FUV)

ions ≈ 3000 km/s

ions > 5000 km/s

0.01~40 keV

P/A

P/A

overview

06:42 06:46 06:4806:44

AE and Bx

1. Main phase of minor storm (Dst ~ -60 nT).

2. Substorm onset at around 06:25 UT but ceased in ~10 min.

3. New activity started at around 06:38 UT.

4. Aurora bulge arrived Cluster’s conjugate ~19 MLT at around 06:42~06:44 UT.

sunward propagation 1000~2000 km

Misato Aurora Camera

Misato Aurora Camera