China’s Rise, US Pivot

and Japan’s National

Security

July 18, 2014

Noboru Yamaguchi

Lieutenant General, JGSDF (Ret.)

National Defense Academy of Japan

The 13th Shangri-La Dialogue on May 30,2014

PM Abe’s Keynote Speech

Freedom, democracy, and the rule of

law, which undergirds these two, form

the Asia-Pacific’s rich basso continuo

that supports the melody played in a

bright and cheery key. Prof. Taniguhi

Speech Writer

The 13th Shangri-La Dialogue May 30,2014

Lt General Wang Guanzhong, PLA

Cooperative v.s. Aggressive “Rise”

Robust “Rebalance” v.s. Isolationism

US Commitment Robust Weak to

Isolation

Peaceful/Cooperative

Assertive/Aggressive

Ch

ina

’s R

ise

US Commitment

Status Quo+ (G2?)

Japan: Rely on US?

US-China

Confrontation

Japan: Front Line?

China’s Hegemon

Japan: Tributary or

Confrontation?

Sino-Centric

Regional Order

Japan: Under Who?

The “Rise” of China: The Increasing

Military Expenditure

MoD, Defense of Japan 2012

U.S. & Chinese Military Expenditure (estimate)

30:1(1991) → 3-6:1 (2011) → 2-1:1 (2030)

18 times larger than that of 20 years ago

China US Japan

1991 11.9 290.9 (32.7) $ Bill

2011 197.9 717.4 (59.8) 〃

U.S.

Germany

Spain France

Japan

Source: IISS Miltiary Balance 1992

Military Expenditure in the 1980s to 1990s

Defense Expenditure & Economic Growth

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Japan’s Defense Expenditure (in Hundred Million Yen)

Yoshida Doctrine

○ Economy First

○ Light Arms

○ Rely on US

Korea

War

Bubble

Economy

Collapse

Rapid Growth

The Senkakus and the MST

Senkaku Islands: Uotsuri-shima, Kitakojima, Minami- Kojima

Japan’s

Admin

USG takes no position

on territorial disputes

Joint

Action

Armed

Attack

Article 5: Each Party recognizes that an armed attack against either Party in the

territories under the administration of Japan would be dangerous to its own

peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common danger…

February to May QDR, BMDR, NPR, NSS released

June 2010 Secretary Gates Speech

“geographically distributed, operationally resilient, and politically sustainable-

-”

November 2011 Secretary Clinton, “America’s Pacific Century,”

Foreign Policy (November 2011).

“As the war in Iraq winds down and America begins to withdraw its forces

from Afghanistan, the United States stands at a pivot point.”

January 2012 New Defense Strategic Guidance “Sustaining U.S.

Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense”

“… rebalance towards the Asia Pacific region.”

April 2012 Secretary Clinton’s Speech a the Naval Academy

Rebalance is not an anti-China Policy

U.S. “Rebalance” towards the Asia Pacific

Obama Administration’s Policy

Deployed 15% of all U.S.

forces for 10 years

Afghanistan & Iraq

2005 208 k

2006 223 k

2007 209 k

2008 222 k

2009 190 k

2010 104 k

2011 102 k

2012 77 k

U.S. “Rebalance” towards the Asia Pacific:

Returning to Normalcy?

A2/AD(Anti-Access/Area-Denial)

First Island Chain

Second Island Chain

アクセス妨（A2）環境下での作戦

Japan’s Territorial

Defense

U.S. “Return” to Asia and

Japan’s Defense

Present and Future SDF Posture Current Future

GSDF

Strength 159,000 159,000

(Including 8,000 Ready Reserve) (Including 8,000 Ready Reserve)

Major Units

9 Divisions (1 Rapid Deployment) 9 Divisions (1 Rapid Deployment)

6 Brigades 6 Brigades (4 Rapid Deployment)

1 Central Readiness Force 1 Airborne Brigade

1 Amphibious Brigade

5 SSM Regiments 5 SSM Regiments

8 SAM Regiments/Groups 7 SAM Regiments/Groups

Equipement 700 Tanks, 600 Guns 300 Tanks, 300 Guns

MSDF

Major Units 4 Flotilas (8 Division) 4 Flotilas (8 Division)

SS, MCM, Patrol Aircraft Units SS, MCM, Patrol Aircraft Units

Equipement

47 Destroyers 54 Destroyers

(Including 6 AEGIS Destroyers) (Including 6 AEGIS Destroyers)

16 Submarines 22 Submarines

179 Aircraft 179 Aircraft

ASDF

Major Units

12 Fighter Squadrons 13 Fighter Squadrons

6 SAM Groups 6 SAM Groups

Air Recon, Aerial Refueling, Air Transport Squadron

Air Recon, Aerial Refueling, Air Transport Squadron

Aircraft 340 Aircraft 360 Aircraft

(Including 260 Fighters) (Including 280 Fighters)

National Security Strategy : Proactive Contribution to Peace

NDPG 2012: Major Concept

Dynamic Joint Defense Force

Defense of Remote Islands:

Maritime/Air Superiority, Amphibious OPS

Gray-Zone Cases

Revising G/L: GOJ & USG

Legal Basis for National Security under Study

Defense of South

Western Waters

NSS, NDPG and Revision of the Guidelines

for Japan-US Defense