yapı kredi 1h11 earnings presentation · 2019-11-11 · yapı kredi 1h11 earnings presentation...
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Yapı Kredi 1H11 Earnings Presentation
Istanbul, 3 August 2011
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2
Operating Environment
1H11 Results (BRSA Consolidated)
Performance of Strategic Business Units & Subsidiaries
Outlook
Agenda
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10.1%
6.2%
7.0%
5.3%
11.9%
8.1%
2008 2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11
Inflation (CPI) yoy, Dec Core Inflation Food Inflation
Macroeconomic EnvironmentContinuation of positive growth environment with sustained low interest rates, controlled inflation and declining unemployment
3
Positive growth environment albeit with
some moderation expected in 2Q driven by
more contained domestic demand
Low annual inflation with some quarterly
volatility driven mainly by food inflation
CBRT’s policy of sustained low interest
rates supported by controlled inflation
Industrial production still below
pre-crisis levels while consumer
confidence index continuing to increase
Unemployment rate returning to pre-
crisis single digit level posted in June
2008
Current account deficit widening but with
recent signs of slowdown in private
consumption, moderation in investments
and external demand
Sustained fiscal discipline (budget deficit /
GDP at 1.7%) supportive of CBRT’s “low for
longer” policy
(1) Yapı Kredi Economic Research estimate
(2) As of May 2010, the policy rate changed to one-week lending repo rate (7.0%) from the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) O/N borrowing rate (6.5%)
(3) Average of Apr’11 and May’11
(4) Average of Mar’11, Apr’11 and May’11
(5) May’11 Current Account Deficit
(6) 2011 GDP estimate used for calculation
Inflation Dynamics
GDP Growth (y/y) 8.9% 11.0% 6.6%1
Inflation (eop, y/y) 6.4% 4.0% 6.2%
CBRT Policy Rate (eop)2 6.50% 6.25% 6.25%
Industrial Production (y/y) 13.1% 14.2% 8.1%3
Consumer Confidence Index (eop) 91.0 93.4 96.4
Unemployment Rate 11.9% 11.5% 9.9%4
Current Account Deficit / GDP 6.6% 7.5% 8.5%5,6
Budget Deficit / GDP 3.6% 2.6% 1.7%6
1Q112010 2Q11
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4
Banking SectorSustained volume growth in a more regulated and competitive environment
4
Banking Sector Volumes (as of June 2011) Acceleration in loan growth in 2Q (10% vs7% in 1Q) mainly driven by TL (10% in 2Q)
leading to strong ytd growth (17%). FC loan
growth slowing down in 2Q (4% vs 8% in 1Q
in USD terms)
Acceleration in deposit growth in 2Q (5% vs
1% in 1Q) driven by TL (5% in 2Q). Total ytd
deposit growth (6%) impacted by RRR hikes
and competition
End of securities liquiditation in 2Q.
Continued increase in repo funding (+87% ytd)
for liquidity management
Loans / deposits ratio +9pp ytd to 91% (82%
at YE10) driven by widening differential
between loan and deposit growth due to
upfronting of private investments and
consumption
Continuation of positive trend in asset
quality (NPL ratio at 2.9% vs 3.7% at YE10)
As of May, sector NIM still under pressure
impacted by increasing deposit costs despite
slight recovery in loan yields. Some signs of
stabilisation in securities yields
Note: Banking sector data based on BRSA weekly data excluding participation banks
4.6%
3.5% 3.5% 3.7% 3.6% 3.3%
10.0%9.2% 9.4%
10.9%
8.7% 8.6%
5.6% 5.3%5.7%
Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11
NIM Evolution (as of May 2011)
Yield on Loans
Yield on Securities
Cost of Deposits
NIM
bln TL 1H11 1Q11 2Q11 1H11
Loans 588 7% 10% 17%
TL 417 6% 10% 17%
FC ($) 107 8% 4% 12%
Deposits 649 1% 5% 6%
TL 446 0% 5% 5%
FC ($) 127 3% 0% 3%
Securities 277 -4% 0% -3%
Repo 108 12% 66% 87%
Loans/Deposits 86% 91%
NPL Ratio 3.2% 2.9%
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5
Operating Environment
1H11 Results (BRSA Consolidated)
Performance of Strategic Business Units & Subsidiaries
Outlook
Agenda
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6
Executive SummaryBalanced growth and sustained profitability
Customer
Business
Profitability
Asset
Quality
Customer business focus continuing with 17% loan growth ytd, in line with budget path, driven
by higher yielding loan segments including general purpose and SME in local currency retail and
project finance in foreign currency loans
6% deposit growth ytd, with acceleration in 2Q driven by foreign currency deposits on the
back of RRR hikes and competition
Continued management focus on commercial effectiveness leading to ongoing improvement
Ongoing branch expansion (19 net openings as of Jun11, 887 branches)
Positive revenue performance
- Net interest income -5% y/y due to regulatory and competitive pressure, partially
compensated by +250/400bps upward loan repricing since YE10 and disciplined approach
in asset gathering
- Strong fee performance supported by solid volume growth and focused approach
Controlled cost growth
Continuation of improvement trend in asset quality driven by decelerating NPL inflows and
strong collections, contributing to positive evolution of cost of risk
Capital /
Funding
Increasing emphasis on diversification of funding (1.4 bln USD syndication, 1 bln TL bond)
Solid CAR level maintained
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26.8%
20.0% 20.9%
2Q10 1Q11 2Q11
7
Net Income (mln TL)
Key Performance Indicators
Sound performance
Return on Average Equity1
(1) Calculations based on the average of current period equity (excluding current period profit) and prior year equity. Annualised
(2) Calculations based on net income / end of period total assets. Annualised
Return on Assets2 Cost / Income
608532 569
2Q10 1Q11 2Q11
1,1721,101
1H10 1H11
27.9%
20.7%
1H10 1H11
3.0%
2.2% 2.1%
2Q10 1Q11 2Q11
2.8%
2.0%
1H10 1H11
43.8%41.6%
45.5%
2Q10 1Q11 2Q11
41.8%43.5%
1H10 1H11
Tangible
ROAE:
23%
+7%
+9 bps
-1 bps
+39 bps
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8
Income Statement1,101 mln TL net income in 1H11 driven by positive revenue performance (despite NIM pressure), contained costs and improving asset quality
Revenues +3% y/y
driven by solid fee growth
and sustained collections
despite NIM pressure
Costs +7% y/y driven by
continuous cost control
Provisions +28% y/y
Net income at 1,101 mln TL,
-6% y/y and +7% q/q
(1) Indicates net income before minority. 1H11 net income after minority: 1,062 mln TL
mln TL 2Q10 1Q11 2Q11 1H10 1H11 y/y
Total Revenues 1,566 1,708 1,510 3,140 3,218 3%
Net Interest Income 824 885 834 1,818 1,718 -5%
Non-Interest Income 742 823 676 1,322 1,500 13%
o/w Fees & comms. 430 451 471 830 922 11%
Operating Costs 622 711 687 1,312 1,398 7%
Operating Income 944 997 823 1,828 1,820 0%
Provisions 185 313 138 353 451 28%
o/w Loan Loss 230 256 146 319 402 26%
Pre-tax income 759 684 685 1,475 1,369 -7%
Net Income1 608 532 569 1,172 1,101 -6%
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Balance SheetStrong evolution with continuation of customer business focus and increasing diversification of funding
9
Acceleration in loan growth in 2Q
(13% vs 4% in 1Q) driven mainly by TL
(15% in 2Q) leading to strong ytd
growth (17%). FC loan growth at 9%
ytd in USD terms
Acceleration in deposit growth in 2Q
(5% vs 2% in 1Q) leading to 6% ytd
growth mainly driven by FC deposits
(+10% in US$ terms). TL deposits
stable impacted by RRR hikes and
competition, partially offset by repo
funding (+191% ytd)
AUM relatively stable impacted by
market conditions
Loans/assets at 59% and
securities/assets at 19%, confirming
customer business focus
Loans/deposits ratio at 109% on the
back of further diversification of
funding base (wholesale
borrowings/liabilities at 15%)
Group CAR at 13.8% and Bank
CAR at 14.1%
Note: Loan figures indicate performing loans
(1) Leverage ratio: (Total assets – equity) / equity
(2) Wholesale borrowings include funds borrowed, sub-debt and marketable securities issued
bln TL 2010 1Q11 2Q111Q
Growth
2Q
Growth
ytd
Growth
Total Assets 92.8 97.6 107.5 5% 10% 16%
Loans 54.2 56.6 63.7 4% 13% 17%
TL 34.6 35.6 41.1 3% 15% 19%
FC (in US$) 13.1 13.9 14.2 6% 2% 9%
Securities 19.9 20.6 20.9 3% 2% 5%
Deposits 55.2 56.1 58.7 2% 5% 6%
TL 32.3 32.0 32.1 -1% 0% 0%
FC (in US$) 15.2 15.9 16.7 5% 5% 10%
Repo 3.2 6.1 9.4 89% 54% 191%
SHE 10.7 11.2 11.8 4% 5% 10%
AUM 9.0 9.1 9.0 1% -2% -1%
Loans/Assets 58% 58% 59% 0 pp 1 pp 1 pp
Securities /Assets 21% 21% 19% 0 pp -2 pp -2 pp
Loans/Deposits 98% 101% 109% 3 pp 8 pp 10 pp
Deposits/Assets 59% 57% 55% -2 pp -3 pp -5 pp
Leverage1 7.6x 7.7x 8.1x - - -
Wholesale Borrows./Liab2 15% 14% 15% -1 pp 1 pp 1 pp
Group CAR 15.4% 14.4% 13.8% -1 pp -1 pp -2 pp
Bank CAR 16.1% 14.9% 14.1% -1 pp -1 pp -2 pp
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53% 52% 55%
27% 26% 31%
20%22%
14%
2Q10 1Q11 2Q11
58% 53%
26% 29%
16% 18%
1H10 1H11
10
Revenue Composition (mln TL)
Total Revenues Sustained revenue base with quality mix
Other Income Breakdown
NII / revenues at 53% (vs 58% in 1H10) due to NIM
pressure. Revenues / RWA impacted by relatively
stable revenues y/y and acceleration of volume
growth at quarter-end
Fees / revenues up to 29% (vs 26% in 1H10)
Other income / revenues at 18% mainly driven by:
- Trading / FX income (28 mln TL in 1H11) impacted
by m-t-m of hedging instruments
- Solid collections performance (319 mln TL in 1H11)
Rev. /
RWA
1,5661,510
1,708
8.5% 8.2% 6.5%
3,140 3,218 3%
18%
11%
-5%
8.6% 6.9%
mln TL 2Q10 1Q11 2Q11 1H10 1H11
Total Other Income 313 372 206 491 578
Trading & FX (net) -31 50 -22 -53 28
Collections 197 186 133 327 319
Income from subs & other 147 136 95 217 231
y/y
Quarterly Cumulative
Net Interest
Income
Net Fees &
Comms.
Other(Trading & Other)
-
89% 89% 88%
11% 11% 12%
2Q10 1Q11 2Q11
89% 89%
11% 11%
1H10 1H11
11
Net Interest Income (NII) (mln TL)
Net Interest IncomeSlowdown in NIM compression in 2Q on the back of positive effect of early repricing actions on loan yields. Pressure on deposit costs
Quarterly NIM Analysis
1,818
(1) NIM = Net interest income (NII) / Avg. IEAs
Note: NIM and yield on securities adjusted to exclude the effect of reclassification as per BRSA between interest income and
other provisions related to impairment of held to maturity securities.
Reported NIM figures as follows. 1Q10: 5.8%, 4Q10: 4.2%, 1Q11: 3.8%, 2Q11: 3.3%
Performing loan volume and net interest income used for loan yield calculations
Loan
Yield
Deposit
Cost
Securities
Yield
Bank
Subs
Net Interest Margin (NIM)1
Benchmark
Bond Rate8.5%8.5%9.0%8.2%
Quarterly Cumulative
NII declining 5% y/y driven by Bank (-6%)
Cumulative NIM at 3.5% (-152 bps y/y) driven by low
interest rate environment, regulation and competition
Quarterly NIM at 3.4% (-23 bps q/q) resulting from:
- Increase in TL loan-deposit spread due to early loan
repricing
- Decline in FC loan-deposit spread due to increasing FC
deposit costs on the back of reduced sector liquidity
- Stable securities yield
824
7.6% 8.8%
NIM excl. CBRT
balances
10.3%
8.7% 8.8%
7.4%
7.3% 7.3%
5.2%5.0% 5.2%
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11
885 834
1,718
4.5% 3.9% 3.7% 5.0% 4.7% 3.6%
-5%
2%
-6%
y/yQuarterly Cumulative
4.4%3.6% 3.4%
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11
5.0% 4.6%
3.5%
1H10 2010 1H11
TL Loan-
Deposit
Spread
FC Loan-
Deposit
Spread
5.8%
4.1% 4.2%
2.7%
2.4%1.9%
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11
13.0%10.9%11.0%
7.3%
6.7% 6.8%
4.8% 4.7% 4.7%
2.1%
2.2%2.8%
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11
FC loan yield
FC deposit cost
TL loan yield
TL deposit cost
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Housing 9.2%
Gen Pur7.2%
Auto 1.7%
Comm. Install13.1%
Credit Cards14.5%
TL Companies
18.9%
FC Companies
37.1%
12
Loans
Loans
Overall growth in 1H in line with budget path driven by higher margin GPL and SME in local currency and project finance in foreign currency
Composition of Loans
Note: Sector data based on weekly BRSA unconsolidated figures. Market shares based on unconsolidated figures for YKB and sector
according to BRSA classification with FC-indexed loans included in TL loans
(1) Total performing loans
(2) Proxy for SME loans as per BRSA reporting. Growth adjusted for YK Nederland reclassification (1.9 mln TL at YE10)
(3) Based on MIS data. Please refer to annex for Yapı Kredi’s internal segment definitions
(4) Including consumer loans (housing, general purpose, auto), commercial installment and credit cards.
Loan Growth by Business Unit3
Retail
Loans4:
46%
Consumer
Loans:
18.0%
TL 65%
FC 35%
13% 14%16%
7%14%
11%5%
-5%
8% 11% 9%
31%
Individual SME Commercial Corporate
2Q10 1Q11 2Q11
bln TL 2Q11YKB
2Q Growth
YKB
Ytd Growth
Sector
Ytd GrowthMk Shr
Total Loans1 63.7 13% 17% 17% 10.5%
TL 41.1 15% 19% 17% 9.8%
FC ($) 14.2 2% 9% 12% 12.3%
Consumer Loans 11.5 7% 19% 21% 7.5%
Mortgages 5.9 2% 11% 16% 8.7%
General Purpose 4.6 13% 34% 26% 5.8%
Auto 1.1 8% 12% 16% 17.3%
Credit Cards 9.2 8% 8% 14% 18.2%
Companies 43.0 15% 19% 16% 10.6%
TL 20.4 25% 24% 15% 9.3%
FC ($) 14.2 2% 9% 12% 12.3%
Com. Installment2 8.3 9% 20% 28% 9.1%
Impacted by a few temporary
short-term big ticket loans at
end-2Q. Excluding: 20%
-
58% 55%
42% 45%
2010 2Q11
17%
15%
18%
15%
YKB Sector
40%29%
57%63%
1% 3%2% 5%
YE10 2Q11
13
Deposits
DepositsOverall growth in 1H in line with sector with increasing emphasis on demand deposits and lengthening maturity
Note: Sector data based on weekly BRSA unconsolidated figures. Market shares based on unconsolidated figures for YKB and sector
(1) Customer deposits exclude bank deposits
(2) Retail includes SME, mass, affluent and private. Based on MIS data
Total deposits +6% ytd (in line with sector) driven by FC
deposits (10% in US$ terms). TL deposits stable impacted
by RRR hikes and competition. Strong increase in share
of retail2 in total TL deposits (76% vs 68% at YE10)
Solid demand deposit growth (9% vs 6% sector) leading
to increase in demand deposit / total deposits ratio (18%)
AUM relatively stable impacted by market conditions
Demand Deposits / Total Deposits
Composition of Total Deposits
TL
FC
2010 2Q11 2010 2Q11
Share of
Retail2: 45%
Share of
Retail2: 76%
By Currency By Maturity (months)
Share of
Retail2: 47%
Share of
Retail2: 68%
+12M6M-12M
1-6M
-
Securitisations8%
Syndications27%
Sub-debt 15%
LPN7%
Supranational9%
Issued Bonds6%
Other28%15% 15%
3%9%
59%55%
12% 11%
11% 10%
2010 2Q11
14
Liability Composition (bln TL)
Deposits
Repos
Borrowings1
Other
SHE
92.8 107.5
Increasing diversification of the funding base
- 1,450 mln USD syndication with 145% rollover in
Apr’11 (Libor+1.10%, -40bps vs previous year, 1 year
maturity)
- 1 bln TL bond issuance in domestic capital markets
in Jun’11 (8.86% compounded rate, 175 days
maturity)
Short term liquidity management via utilisation of
repo funding (9% of total liabilities vs 3% at YE10)
(1) Includes funds borrowed, sub-debt and marketable securities issued. Please refer to annex for details on international borrowings
(2) Other includes eximbank, postfinancing loans and subsidiaries
10%
ytd
12%
6%
191%
21%
16%
FundingFurther diversification of the funding base
Composition of Borrowings
2
16.4 bln TL
in 1H11
-
91% 93% 92%
9% 7% 8%
2Q10 1Q11 2Q11
91%92%
9%8%
1H10 1H11 42%41%
37%
38%
8%
6%2%
2%11%
13%
1H10 1H11
15
Key Drivers of Fee Growth
Fees & Commissions Robust growth performance driven by focused approach and volume growth
Fees +11% y/y driven by Bank (+13% y/y)
- Credit card fees +14% y/y contributed by volume growth and
increase in interchange/acquiring fees. Share in total at 41%
confirming increasing diversification of fee base
- Lending related fees +20% y/y driven by volume growth and
repricing in some consumer loans. Share in total at 38%
- Asset management fees -16% y/y due to fund management fee cap
decline and stable volumes
- Insurance fees +55% y/y due to bancassurance focus
- Other fees +17% y/y mainly driven by increasing contribution
of product bundle fees and campaigns
Subs fees impacted by fund management fee cap decline (-4% y/y)
Composition of Bank Fees & CommissionsNet Fees & Commissions (mln TL)
(1) Total Bank fees received as of 1H11: 1,001 mln TL (874 mln TL in 1H10). Total fees paid as of 1H11: 149 mln TL (117 mln TL in 1H10)
(2) Other includes account maintenance, money transfers, equity trading, campaign fees, product bundle fees etc.
(3) As of May 2011
Credit Cards
Lending Related
(cash and
non-cash)
Asset MgmtInsurance
Other2
14%
20%
-16%
55%
17%
Y/Y Growth
430
Bank
Subs
830
New
Products
New Fee
Areas
Focus on
Collection
Fee
Generating
Products
Continued strong product bundle sales
138K sales in 1H11 (43% of 2011 target achieved)
Solid performance of leasing & factoring fees
+92% y/y
Strong trend in collection ratio due to focused efforts
61% retail (+6pp vs YE10)
Continued robust performance in bancassurance (+55% y/y),
trade finance (+20% ytd avg volumes), cash mngmt (+12% ytd
avg volumes), derivative trading (+7% ytd)
471
63% 66%
Sector:
50%3
451
922
-4%
13%
Fees /
Opex -117 -149
874
1,001
Fees &
Commissions
Received
Fees &
Commissions
Paid
11%
-
Non-HR2
Other1
42%46%
53%
49%
5%5%
1H10 1H11
16
Total Operating Costs (mln TL)
HR
Operating Costs Continuation of controlled cost growth
Cost /
Income
Total costs +7% y/y; +6% excluding
one-offs3, in line with inflation
HR costs +17% y/y impacted by bonus
payments in 1Q11 (+12% y/y excluding
one-offs3)
- Number of employees at 14,547
(+136 vs YE10) driven by branch
expansion
Non-HR costs -2% y/y4 impacted by
one-off items in 1H10 (NPL sale legal
fees and non-cash loan general
provisions), +1% y/y excluding one-offs3
- Number of branches at 887, +19 net
openings in 2Q, +2% ytd. Market share
at 9.1%
Other costs 10% y/y driven by stabilised
pension fund deficit5 and effective
management of Worldcard loyalty points41.8%
(1) Other includes pension fund provisions and loyalty points on Worldcard
(2) Non-HR costs include HR related non-HR, advertising, rent, SDIF, taxes and depreciation
(3) One-offs in 1Q10: NPL sale legal fees (9.2 mln TL), non-cash loan general provisions (13 mln TL) in non-HR costs 1Q11: variable compensation (30 mln TL) in HR costs
(4) Including branch tax: 1Q10: 40 mln TL, 1Q11: 44 mln TL
(5) Obligation to provide all qualified employees with pension and post-retirement benefits, calculated annually by an independent actuary registered with the
Undersecretariat of the Treasury
1,312
46% 46% 47%
54% 50% 48%
4% 5%
2Q10 1Q11 2Q11
43.5%
1,399 7%
688711622
10%
-2%
17%
0%
-
4.3%
6.3%
3.4% 3.2% 2.9%
2008 2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11
17
NPL Ratio
Asset QualityContinuing positive trend
NPL
Volume (bln TL)
NPL Ratio by Segment
Net Inflows
Collections
/ Inflows
-27
107%
Collections
NPL Inflows
Asset Quality Flows (mln TL)
4.3%
7.7%
4.4% 3.8% 3.4%
6.3%
10.0%
5.3%5.6%
5.3%
6.8%
12.6%
5.1% 4.5% 4.1%
2.5% 3.0%2.0% 1.8% 1.6%
2008 2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11
NPL ratio down to 2.9% (vs 3.4% at YE10), in line with
sector, driven by decelerating NPL inflows, strong
collections and solid loan growth
- NPL ratio improving in all segments with
deceleration in NPL flows
Collection/inflows at 98% in 1H11 on the back of
declining NPL inflows and strong collections performance
(1) Including cross default. If excluding, 2Q11: 2.8%
(2) As per YKB’s internal segment definition, SMEs: companies with annual turnover 5 mln USD
(3) Excluding one large commercial position (fully provisioned including collaterals) booked as NPL in 3Q
-30 bps
Credit Cards
313
80%3
140
85%
1.7
SME2
Consumer Loans1
Corporate & Comm.2
2.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 42
88%
910
1,138
760
400 360
770 825
745
427 318
1H10 2H10 1H11 1Q11 2Q11
15
98%
-
18
Specific and General Provisioning Cost of Risk2 Cumulative net off collections
Total coverage of NPL volume at 120% (including specific and general provisions)
Specific coverage at 76% (-1pp vs YE10) driven by improving asset quality
Generic coverage of total performing loans at 1.2% (vs 1.3% at YE10)
Total cost of risk (net off collections) at 0.25% (vs -0.03% in 1H10)
Provisioning and CoRStrong NPL coverage and improving cost of risk driven by continuation of positive asset quality
77% 78% 76%
40% 44% 44%
2010 1Q11 2Q11
Specific provisions / NPL
General provisions / NPL
(1) Coverage of total performing loans
(2) Cost of risk = (total loan loss provisions – collections) / total gross loans
Note: General provisions / NPL= (standard + watch provisions) / NPL
Total general provisions / performing loans = (standard + watch provisions) / performing loans
100%
122%117%
1.43%
3.72%
0.81%
0.48%0.25%
1.09%
3.14%
0.68%
-0.11% -0.07%
2008 2009 2010 1Q11 1H11
Total
Specific
120%
1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
6.5%8.7%
6.5%
2010 1Q11 2Q11
Watch
Standard
Total1 1.3% 1.3% 1.2%
General Loan Coverage
-
39%23%
1.0%
0.3%
47%
53%
13%21%
0%3%
2007 2Q11
330 326
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11
~433,000 ~426,000
~222,000
2010 2Q11
19
* Other includes POS, mobile etc.
Note: BRSA Bank-only figures used for commercial effectiveness indicators. All other figures based on MIS data
RM = Relationship Manager
Commercial EffectivenessOngoing initiatives resulting in continuous improvement
Productivity
6,935
8,707
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11
Systems / Efficiency
Core Revenues / Employee (ths TL)
Customer Business / Employee (ths TL)
Products / Services
Conversion of Card only Clients
• 2.0 mln total card
only clients
• 51% of 2011 target
achieved
2011
Target:
Non-branch Channels in Total Transactions
Retail Cross-sell
3.30
3.693.81
3.90
2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11
Synergies with Insurance Subs(# of new products sold)
1Q11 2Q11 Δ
# of Health
Policies9,739 30,419 212%
# of SME Policies 3,411 9,136 168%
# of Income
Protection
Policies2,596 4,802 85%
# of Commercial
Credit Life
Policies8,327 18,131 118%
26%
8% 1%
Retail Demand Deposits / Relationship Manager
(ths TL)
1,411
1,274
1,414
2010 1Q11 2Q11
SMEMass
Affluent
11%
9%
20%
Ytd Growth
77%61%
Other
ATM
Branches
Internet
Call Center
-
20
Operating Environment
1H11 Results (BRSA Consolidated)
Performance of Strategic Business Units & Subsidiaries
Outlook
Agenda
-
944
229
68
140
469
Retail322%
Revenues driven by high margin loan growth, early loan repricing and robust fees (19 %y/y).
Solid performance by SME (28% y/y) followed by
Mass (21% y/y) compensating affluent (stable y/y)
Revenues impacted by lower cap rates (-32bps), decline in revolving ratio and increased cost of
funding
Revenues impacted by contraction in AUM volumes and derivative products together with
decrease in mutual fund cap rates impacting fee
performance (-19% y/y)
Revenues driven by selective lending approach and continuation of competitive environment
Weight in Bank
Drivers of revenue growthY/Y(1H10 – 1H11)
Revenues(mln TL)
Revenues driven by volume growth
40% 35%
Customer Business2
(1) Revenues excluding treasury and other
(2) Customer business = Loans + Deposits + AUM
(3) Retail includes individual (mass and affluent) and SME banking
(4) Net of loyalty point expenses on World cards
Note: all figures based on MIS data
Performance of Business UnitsStrong performance of retail, corporate and commercial. Cards impacted by decline
in cap rate and higher cost of funding. Private impacted by difficult market conditions
21
Credit
Cards4
Private
Corporate
10% 7%
3% 13%
6% 18%
20% 23%
Commercial
-37%
-20%
20%
9%
Revenues1
-
Performance of Subsidiaries Strong profitability performance at core product factories. YK Portföy impacted by decrease in
mutual fund cap rates. Robust performance at insurance subsidiaries
Strong revenue growth driven by higher premium
generation and improving technical margins on the
back of focus on high margin segments
22
YK Leasing
Revenues(mln TL)
Revenue (y/y growth)
ROE Sector
Positioning
96
YK Factoring
YK Yatırım
YK Portföy
311
892
36 126%
Strong revenue performance driven by increased
business volume on the back of enhanced
synergies with SME segment
YK Sigorta
YK Emeklilik
YK Moscow
YK NV
YK Azerbaijan
Revenue performance positively impacted by
higher net interest income and strong fee
performance
Revenue performance impacted by competitive
environment in equity trading
Revenue contraction due to decrease in mutual
fund cap rates
883 27%
Revenue growth driven by above sector
pension fund volume growth and improving
performance in life insurance segment 56 30%
15 10% 12%
13 -13% 10%
Positive revenue performance driven by strong
volume growth compensating for margin pressure
Revenues impacted by ongoing margin pressure
39 -3% 10%
(1) Including dividend income from YK Sigorta. Revenue growth adjusted with dividend income
(2) Including dividend income from YK Portföy. Revenue growth adjusted with dividend income
(3) Including dividend income from YK Emeklilik. Revenue growth adjusted with dividend income
(4) As of Mar’11
(5) As of May’11
(6) 5.4% life insurance market share as of May’11; 16.0% private pension market share as of June’11
55%
67%
19%
19%
30%3
-11%
0%2
36%1
13%
Revenues impacted by decrease in securities income
due to continuation of TL bond portfolio sales
#1 in total transaction volume
(18.9% mkt share)
#1 in total factoring volume
(19.1% mkt share)4
#3 in equity transaction volume
(5.5% mkt share)
#2 in mutual fund volume
(17.4% mkt share)
#2 in health insurance
(14.8% mkt share)5
#5 in life insurance6
#3 in private pensions6
Key Highlights
335 mln TL
total assets
333 mln TL
total assets
3.7 bln TL
total assets
Core Product
Factories
Insurance
Subs
International
Subs
-
23
Operating Environment
1H11 Results (BRSA Consolidated)
Performance of Strategic Business Units & Subsidiaries
Outlook
Agenda
-
24
2H11 OutlookSlowdown in sector loan growth expected in 2H with increasing focus on profitability in a more rational environment
MACRO
Moderation in economic activity on the back of contained domestic demand and weak external demand impacted by regulatory actions and global uncertainty (2011E GDP growth: 5.8%)
Sustained low inflation despite possible short-term acceleration in core inflation(2011E inflation: 6.9%)
Improvement in current account deficit in 4Q on the back of CBRT policy mix and regulatory actions
CBRT policy rate hike expected to be postponed to 2012
SECTOR
YKB
Continuation of volume growth in line with CBRT guidance (2011E loan growth: 25%, deposit growth: 15/20%)
Acceleration of funding diversification(further eurobond and TL bond issuances)
NIM to progressively improve in 2H11 on the back of positive effect of upward loan repricing subject to more rational deposit competition (2011E: -80/100 bps vs 2010)
Continued emphasis on fee generation(2011E: ~15%)
Controlled cost growth (2011E: in line with inflation)
Asset quality to remain strong, in line with sector trend
Ongoing branch expansion to reach 50/60 openings by end of 2011
Significant slowdown in loan growth in 2H accompanied by lessened funding pressure (2011E loan growth: 25%, deposit growth: 15/17%) resulting in reduced NIM pressure vs 1H (2011E: -80/100 bps vs 2010)
Positive asset quality trend to continue (2011E CoR < 2010 level)
2011E = 2011 Estimate
-
25
StrategyYKB confirms long-term strategic pillars while effectively managing the new environment in the short-term
New operating environment highly impacted by intensification of regulations / fierce competition with
implications on banking sector profitability:
- Short-term: Significant pressure on profitability via acceleration of expected structural NIM compression trend in
banking sector, calling for more rational behaviour by banks
- Long-term: Full impact on profitability subject to future evolution of regulatory landscape and competitive
dynamics
Despite short-term uncertainty, Turkey’s prospects structurally positive with strong macroeconomic
fundamentals (taking into account potential risks on CAD, inflation) and underpenetrated / healthy banking sector
In this context, Yapı Kredi will continue its focus on achieving long-term strategic pillars while effectively
managing the new environment in the short-term
Short-Term Focus Areas
Upward loan repricing actions
Emphasis on optimal asset allocation
Focus on cost of funding optimisation,
lenghtening maturity and diversification
Realignment of ALM strategies
Long-Term Strategic Pillars of YKB
Growth and commercial effectiveness
NIM management
Funding and liquidity
Cost and efficiency
Asset quality
Sustainability
-
26
Operating Environment
1H11 Results (BRSA Consolidated)
Performance of Strategic Business Units & Subsidiaries
Outlook
Annex
Agenda
-
27
Detailed Performance by Strategic Business Unit
Other Details
Agenda
-
Retail:
- SME: Companies with turnover less than 5 mln USD
- Affluent: Individuals with assets less than 500K TL
- Mass: Individuals with assets less than 50K TL
Commercial: Companies with annual turnover between 5-100 mln USD
Corporate: Companies with annual turnover above 100 mln USD
Private: Individuals with assets above 500K TL
28
Definitions of Strategic Business Units
-
21%
20%
33%
15%
6% 21%
20%
3%
0%
26%
10%
15% 0%
40%
31%39%
Revenues Loans Deposits
29
Performance by Strategic Business UnitsDiversified revenue mix with retail focused loan and deposit portfolio
Revenues and Volumes by Business Unit1 1H11 (Bank only)
Treasury and Other
Commercial
Corporate
Private
Credit Cards2
Retail (including SME)
Note: Loan and deposit allocations based on end of period volumes (source: MIS data). All SBU figures based on 1H11 segmentat ion criteria
(1) Please refer to definitions of Business Units
(2) Net of loyalty point expenses on World card
50%46%
65%
-
84%
28%33% 33%
6%
13%
21%
43%
10%
59%
46%
24%
Retail Banking ~60% of retail banking revenues generated by SME business
30
Retail Banking Composition (1H11)
~570K active SME clients
generating 59% of total retail
revenues (+28% y/y growth),
46% of retail loans and 24%
of retail deposits
~5.1 mln active banking
clients in mass segment
generating 28% of total retail
revenues (+21% y/y growth)
and 33% of both retail loans
and deposits
~389K affluent clients
generating 13% of total retail
revenues, 21% of retail loans
and 43% of retail deposits
+22% y/y
SME
6.0 mln TL 944 mln TL 18.3 bln TL 20.8 bln
Affluent
Mass
+28%
+0%
+21%
~570K
~389K
~5.1 mln
# of Clients Revenues Loans Deposits
-
3.13%2.87% 2.82%
2Q10 1Q11 2Q11
Retail (Mass & Affluent)Revenues driven by high margin loan growth, early loan repricing and robust fee performance
31
Revenues /Customer Business1
Revenues +14% y/y driven by robust loan growth in high margin areas, especially general purpose and strong fee performance (19% y/y)
Loans +23% ytd mainly driven by general purpose loans (+34%)
Deposits +7% ytd driven by TL deposits (+8%)
Consumer loan NPL ratio down to 3.4%2
(vs 3.8% at 1Q11) driven by deceleration in NPL inflows and
positively impacted by volume growth
Note: Volumes (loans, deposits and AUM) based on end of period data except for revenues/customer business ratio which is based on 3 month average. MIS data.
(1) Customer business: Loans + Deposits + AUM
(2) Excluding cross default
TL mln 1H11
Revenues 382 14% y/y
Loans 9,819 23%
Deposits 15,695 7%
AUM 2,840 7%
% of Demand in Retail Deposits 16.8% 1.1 pp
% of TL in Retail Deposits 76.6% 0.5 pp
% of TL in Retail Loans 99% 0.3 pp
ytd
-
32
Retail (SME)Revenues driven by strong volume growth and robust fee performance
Revenues /Customer Business1
Revenues +28% y/y driven by strong volume growth and robust fee performance (25% y/y)
Loans +24% ytd driven by focused approach and increased commercial effectiveness
Deposits +4% ytd driven by TL(+4%)
SME NPL ratio down to 4.1% (vs 4.5% at 1Q11) driven by deceleration in NPL inflows and positively impacted by volume growth
Note: Volumes (loans, deposits and AUM) based on end of period data except for revenues/customer business ratio which is based on 3 month
average. MIS data.
(1) Customer business: Loans + Deposits + AUM
TL mln 1H11
Revenues 563 28% y/y
Loans 8,498 24%
Deposits 5,095 4%
AUM 772 1%
% of Demand in SME Deposits 43.3% 1.4 pp
% of TL in SME Deposits 74.4% -0.2 pp
% of TL in SME Loans 96% 0.1 pp
ytd
9.49%
8.10%8.85%
2Q10 1Q11 2Q11
-
18.2% 18.7%
20.5%
16.4%
Outstanding Issuing Acquiring No of Cards
33
Credit CardsRevenues impacted by continued decline in cap rates and lower revolving ratio
Volumes and Market Shares3
~626K new World cards issued in 1H11
Net revenues1 impacted by continued decline in cap rates (-32 bps in 1H11) in a stable interest rate environment, lower revolving ratio and higher cost of funding
Credit Card NPL ratio down to 5.3% (vs 5.6% in 1Q11) on the back of decelerating inflows
4
(1) Net of loyalty point expenses on World card
(2) Including virtual cards (2009: 1.5 mln, 2010: 1.5 mln, Jun’11: 1.5 mln)
(3) Market shares and volumes based on bank-only 6-month cumulative figures
(4) Based on personal and corporate credit card outstanding volume. Retail credit card outstanding volume (excluding corporate) market
share: 18.2%
Volumes(bln TL)
9.2 25.3 28.1TL mln 1H10 1H11
Revenues 412 283 -31% y/y
Net Revenues1 364 229 -37% y/y
# of Credit Cards (mln)2 7.7 8.0 3%
# of Merchants (ths) 315 321 5%
# of POS (ths) 378 418 7%
Activation 84.6% 84.7% 0.0 pp
ytd
-
34
PrivateRevenues impacted by contraction in AUM volume and derivative products as well as decrease in mutual fund cap rates
Revenues /Customer Business1
Revenues -20% y/y driven by contraction in AUM volume and derivate products due to volatility in financial markets as well as decrease in mutual fund cap rates
Deposits +23% ytd driven by TL (+24%) and FC (+15% in USD terms)
Loans -9% ytd driven by both TL and FC (~-10%)
Continued focus on leveraging on product factories in distribution of asset management and brokerage products with further development of existing customer base and customer acquisition
Note: Volumes (loans, deposits and AUM) based on end of period data except for revenues/customer business ratio which is based on 3 month
average. MIS data.
(1) Customer business: Loans + Deposits + AUM
TL mln 1H11
Revenues 68 -20% y/y
Loans 221 -9%
Deposits 13,872 23%
AUM 2,350 -26%
% of Demand in Priv. Deposits 4.4% -1.1 pp
% of TL in Priv. Deposits 60.5% 0.5 pp
% of TL in Priv. Loans 75% -1.3 pp
ytd
1.21%
0.96%
0.83%
2Q10 1Q11 2Q11
-
35
CommercialRevenues driven by selective lending approach on the back of competitive environment
Revenues /Customer Business1
Revenues +9% driven by selective lending approach in a competitive environment
Loans +14% ytd driven by TL (10% ytd) and FC (+11% ytd in USD terms)
Deposits +5% ytd driven by FC deposits in USD terms (+4% ytd in USD terms). TL deposits stable
Sound asset quality maintained (Corporate/Commercial NPL ratio at 1.6%)
Note: Volumes (loans, deposits and AUM) based on end of period data except for revenues/customer business ratio which is based on 3 month
average. MIS data.
(1) Customer business: Loans + Deposits + AUM
TL mln 1H11
Revenues 469 9% y/y
Loans 19,359 14%
Deposits 8,238 5%
AUM 216 -3%
% of Demand in Com. Deposits 33.2% -2.2 pp
% of TL in Com. Deposits 42.8% -2.2 pp
% of TL in Com. Loans 30% -1.3 pp
ytd
4.16%
3.50%3.75%
2Q10 1Q11 2Q11
-
36
CorporateRevenues driven by volume growth
Revenues +20% y/y driven by loan growth and disciplined pricing approach compensating for margin pressure
Loans 24% ytd driven by balanced growth in TL (+28% ytd) and FC loans (+16% ytd in USD terms)
Deposits -11% ytd due to contraction in TL deposits (-49% ytd) in view of reserve requirement hikes
Sound asset quality maintained (Corporate/Commercial NPL ratio at 1.6%)
Note: Volumes (loans, deposits and AUM) based on end of period data except for revenues/customer business ratio which is based on 3 month
average. MIS data.
(1) Customer business: Loans + Deposits + AUM
Revenues /Customer Business1
TL mln 1H11
Revenues 140 20% y/y
Loans 12,172 24%
Deposits 10,556 -11%
AUM 40 -33%
% of Demand in Corp. Deposits 5.1% -0.5 pp
% of TL in Corp. Deposits 30.3% -22.5 pp
% of TL in Corp. Loans 24% 0.9 pp
ytd
4.16%
3.50%
3.75%
2Q10 1Q11 2Q11
-
37
Detailed Performance by Strategic Business Unit
Other Details
Agenda
-
66%58% 59%
29%37% 37%
5% 5% 4%
54% 55% 53%
46% 45% 47%
Securities59% of securities portfolio invested in HTM
38
(1% FRN)
(58% FRN)
(1% FRN)
(49% FRN)
38
Share of Held to Maturity (HTM) at 59% (vs 58% in 1Q11). HTM mix in total securities higher at
bank level at 62%
Share of securities in total assets down to 19% (vs 21% in 1Q11)
Share of TL securities in total securities at 53% (vs 55% in 1Q11)
(49% FRN)
(1% FRN)
Trading
AFS
HTM
19,921 20,591 20,942
5% ytd
Securities Composition by Type Securities Composition by Currency (TL mln)
TL
FC
2010 1Q11 1H11 2010 1Q11 1H11
-
~ USD 825 mln outstanding
Dec 06 and Mar 07: ~USD 365 mln, 6 wrapped notes, 7-8 years, Libor+18-35 bps
Aug 10 - DPR Exchange: ~USD 460 mln, 5 unwrapped notes, 5 years
€1,050 mln outstanding
Mar 06: €500 mln, 10NC5, Libor+2.00% p.a.
Apr 06: €350 mln, 10NC5, Libor+2.25% p.a.
Jun 07: €200 mln, 10NC5, Libor+1.85% p.a.
Sace Loan - Jan 07: €100 mln, all-in Euribor+1.20% p.a, 5 years
EIB Loan - Jul 08-Dec 10: €350 mln, 5-15 years
IBRD (World Bank) Loan - Nov 08: USD 25 mln, Libor+1.50% p.a, 6 years
~ USD 2.7 bln outstanding
Apr 11: ~USD 1.45 bln, Libor +1.1% bps all-in cost, 1 year
Sept 10: ~USD 1.25 bln, Libor + 1.30% bps all-in cost, 1 year
USD 750 mln Loan Participation Note (LPN)
Oct 10: 5.1875% (cost), 5 years
Borrowings
Syndications
Securitisations
Subordinated
Loans
Loan Participation
Note
Multinational
Loans
Inte
rnati
on
al
TL BondTL 1 bln bond issue
Jun 11: 8.86% compounded cost, 175 days maturity
Do
mesti
c
39