yapı kredi 1h11 earnings presentation · 2019-11-11 · yapı kredi 1h11 earnings presentation...

Yapı Kredi 1H11 Earnings Presentation

Istanbul, 3 August 2011

2

Operating Environment

1H11 Results (BRSA Consolidated)

Performance of Strategic Business Units & Subsidiaries

Outlook

Agenda

10.1%

6.2%

7.0%

5.3%

11.9%

8.1%

2008 2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11

Inflation (CPI) yoy, Dec Core Inflation Food Inflation

Macroeconomic EnvironmentContinuation of positive growth environment with sustained low interest rates, controlled inflation and declining unemployment

3

Positive growth environment albeit with

some moderation expected in 2Q driven by

more contained domestic demand

Low annual inflation with some quarterly

volatility driven mainly by food inflation

CBRT’s policy of sustained low interest

rates supported by controlled inflation

Industrial production still below

pre-crisis levels while consumer

confidence index continuing to increase

Unemployment rate returning to pre-

crisis single digit level posted in June

2008

Current account deficit widening but with

recent signs of slowdown in private

consumption, moderation in investments

and external demand

Sustained fiscal discipline (budget deficit /

GDP at 1.7%) supportive of CBRT’s “low for

longer” policy

(1) Yapı Kredi Economic Research estimate

(2) As of May 2010, the policy rate changed to one-week lending repo rate (7.0%) from the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) O/N borrowing rate (6.5%)

(3) Average of Apr’11 and May’11

(4) Average of Mar’11, Apr’11 and May’11

(5) May’11 Current Account Deficit

(6) 2011 GDP estimate used for calculation

Inflation Dynamics

GDP Growth (y/y) 8.9% 11.0% 6.6%1

Inflation (eop, y/y) 6.4% 4.0% 6.2%

CBRT Policy Rate (eop)2 6.50% 6.25% 6.25%

Industrial Production (y/y) 13.1% 14.2% 8.1%3

Consumer Confidence Index (eop) 91.0 93.4 96.4

Unemployment Rate 11.9% 11.5% 9.9%4

Current Account Deficit / GDP 6.6% 7.5% 8.5%5,6

Budget Deficit / GDP 3.6% 2.6% 1.7%6

1Q112010 2Q11

4

Banking SectorSustained volume growth in a more regulated and competitive environment

4

Banking Sector Volumes (as of June 2011) Acceleration in loan growth in 2Q (10% vs

7% in 1Q) mainly driven by TL (10% in 2Q)

leading to strong ytd growth (17%). FC loan

growth slowing down in 2Q (4% vs 8% in 1Q

in USD terms)

Acceleration in deposit growth in 2Q (5% vs

1% in 1Q) driven by TL (5% in 2Q). Total ytd

deposit growth (6%) impacted by RRR hikes

and competition

End of securities liquiditation in 2Q.

Continued increase in repo funding (+87% ytd)

for liquidity management

Loans / deposits ratio +9pp ytd to 91% (82%

at YE10) driven by widening differential

between loan and deposit growth due to

upfronting of private investments and

consumption

Continuation of positive trend in asset

quality (NPL ratio at 2.9% vs 3.7% at YE10)

As of May, sector NIM still under pressure

impacted by increasing deposit costs despite

slight recovery in loan yields. Some signs of

stabilisation in securities yields

Note: Banking sector data based on BRSA weekly data excluding participation banks

4.6%

3.5% 3.5% 3.7% 3.6% 3.3%

10.0%9.2% 9.4%

10.9%

8.7% 8.6%

5.6% 5.3%5.7%

Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11

NIM Evolution (as of May 2011)

Yield on Loans

Yield on Securities

Cost of Deposits

NIM

bln TL 1H11 1Q11 2Q11 1H11

Loans 588 7% 10% 17%

TL 417 6% 10% 17%

FC ($) 107 8% 4% 12%

Deposits 649 1% 5% 6%

TL 446 0% 5% 5%

FC ($) 127 3% 0% 3%

Securities 277 -4% 0% -3%

Repo 108 12% 66% 87%

Loans/Deposits 86% 91%

NPL Ratio 3.2% 2.9%

5




Outlook

Agenda

6

Executive SummaryBalanced growth and sustained profitability

Customer

Business

Profitability

Asset

Quality

Customer business focus continuing with 17% loan growth ytd, in line with budget path, driven

by higher yielding loan segments including general purpose and SME in local currency retail and

project finance in foreign currency loans

6% deposit growth ytd, with acceleration in 2Q driven by foreign currency deposits on the

back of RRR hikes and competition

Continued management focus on commercial effectiveness leading to ongoing improvement

Ongoing branch expansion (19 net openings as of Jun11, 887 branches)

Positive revenue performance

- Net interest income -5% y/y due to regulatory and competitive pressure, partially

compensated by +250/400bps upward loan repricing since YE10 and disciplined approach

in asset gathering

- Strong fee performance supported by solid volume growth and focused approach

Controlled cost growth

Continuation of improvement trend in asset quality driven by decelerating NPL inflows and

strong collections, contributing to positive evolution of cost of risk

Capital /

Funding

Increasing emphasis on diversification of funding (1.4 bln USD syndication, 1 bln TL bond)

Solid CAR level maintained

26.8%

20.0% 20.9%

2Q10 1Q11 2Q11

7

Net Income (mln TL)

Key Performance Indicators

Sound performance

Return on Average Equity1

(1) Calculations based on the average of current period equity (excluding current period profit) and prior year equity. Annualised

(2) Calculations based on net income / end of period total assets. Annualised

Return on Assets2 Cost / Income

608532 569

2Q10 1Q11 2Q11

1,1721,101

1H10 1H11

27.9%

20.7%

1H10 1H11

3.0%

2.2% 2.1%

2Q10 1Q11 2Q11

2.8%

2.0%

1H10 1H11

43.8%41.6%

45.5%

2Q10 1Q11 2Q11

41.8%43.5%

1H10 1H11

Tangible

ROAE:

23%

+7%

+9 bps

-1 bps

+39 bps

8

Income Statement1,101 mln TL net income in 1H11 driven by positive revenue performance (despite NIM pressure), contained costs and improving asset quality

Revenues +3% y/y

driven by solid fee growth

and sustained collections

despite NIM pressure

Costs +7% y/y driven by

continuous cost control

Provisions +28% y/y

Net income at 1,101 mln TL,

-6% y/y and +7% q/q

(1) Indicates net income before minority. 1H11 net income after minority: 1,062 mln TL

mln TL 2Q10 1Q11 2Q11 1H10 1H11 y/y

Total Revenues 1,566 1,708 1,510 3,140 3,218 3%

Net Interest Income 824 885 834 1,818 1,718 -5%

Non-Interest Income 742 823 676 1,322 1,500 13%

o/w Fees & comms. 430 451 471 830 922 11%

Operating Costs 622 711 687 1,312 1,398 7%

Operating Income 944 997 823 1,828 1,820 0%

Provisions 185 313 138 353 451 28%

o/w Loan Loss 230 256 146 319 402 26%

Pre-tax income 759 684 685 1,475 1,369 -7%

Net Income1 608 532 569 1,172 1,101 -6%

Balance SheetStrong evolution with continuation of customer business focus and increasing diversification of funding

9

Acceleration in loan growth in 2Q

(13% vs 4% in 1Q) driven mainly by TL

(15% in 2Q) leading to strong ytd

growth (17%). FC loan growth at 9%

ytd in USD terms

Acceleration in deposit growth in 2Q

(5% vs 2% in 1Q) leading to 6% ytd

growth mainly driven by FC deposits

(+10% in US$ terms). TL deposits

stable impacted by RRR hikes and

competition, partially offset by repo

funding (+191% ytd)

AUM relatively stable impacted by

market conditions

Loans/assets at 59% and

securities/assets at 19%, confirming

customer business focus

Loans/deposits ratio at 109% on the

back of further diversification of

funding base (wholesale

borrowings/liabilities at 15%)

Group CAR at 13.8% and Bank

CAR at 14.1%

Note: Loan figures indicate performing loans

(1) Leverage ratio: (Total assets – equity) / equity

(2) Wholesale borrowings include funds borrowed, sub-debt and marketable securities issued

bln TL 2010 1Q11 2Q111Q

Growth

2Q

Growth

ytd

Growth

Total Assets 92.8 97.6 107.5 5% 10% 16%

Loans 54.2 56.6 63.7 4% 13% 17%

TL 34.6 35.6 41.1 3% 15% 19%

FC (in US$) 13.1 13.9 14.2 6% 2% 9%

Securities 19.9 20.6 20.9 3% 2% 5%

Deposits 55.2 56.1 58.7 2% 5% 6%

TL 32.3 32.0 32.1 -1% 0% 0%

FC (in US$) 15.2 15.9 16.7 5% 5% 10%

Repo 3.2 6.1 9.4 89% 54% 191%

SHE 10.7 11.2 11.8 4% 5% 10%

AUM 9.0 9.1 9.0 1% -2% -1%

Loans/Assets 58% 58% 59% 0 pp 1 pp 1 pp

Securities /Assets 21% 21% 19% 0 pp -2 pp -2 pp

Loans/Deposits 98% 101% 109% 3 pp 8 pp 10 pp

Deposits/Assets 59% 57% 55% -2 pp -3 pp -5 pp

Leverage1 7.6x 7.7x 8.1x - - -

Wholesale Borrows./Liab2 15% 14% 15% -1 pp 1 pp 1 pp

Group CAR 15.4% 14.4% 13.8% -1 pp -1 pp -2 pp

Bank CAR 16.1% 14.9% 14.1% -1 pp -1 pp -2 pp

53% 52% 55%

27% 26% 31%

20%22%

14%

2Q10 1Q11 2Q11

58% 53%

26% 29%

16% 18%

1H10 1H11

10

Revenue Composition (mln TL)

Total Revenues Sustained revenue base with quality mix

Other Income Breakdown

NII / revenues at 53% (vs 58% in 1H10) due to NIM

pressure. Revenues / RWA impacted by relatively

stable revenues y/y and acceleration of volume

growth at quarter-end

Fees / revenues up to 29% (vs 26% in 1H10)

Other income / revenues at 18% mainly driven by:

- Trading / FX income (28 mln TL in 1H11) impacted

by m-t-m of hedging instruments

- Solid collections performance (319 mln TL in 1H11)

Rev. /

RWA

1,5661,510

1,708

8.5% 8.2% 6.5%

3,140 3,218 3%

18%

11%

-5%

8.6% 6.9%

mln TL 2Q10 1Q11 2Q11 1H10 1H11

Total Other Income 313 372 206 491 578

Trading & FX (net) -31 50 -22 -53 28

Collections 197 186 133 327 319

Income from subs & other 147 136 95 217 231

y/y

Quarterly Cumulative

Net Interest

Income

Net Fees &

Comms.

Other(Trading & Other)

89% 89% 88%

11% 11% 12%

2Q10 1Q11 2Q11

89% 89%

11% 11%

1H10 1H11

11

Net Interest Income (NII) (mln TL)

Net Interest IncomeSlowdown in NIM compression in 2Q on the back of positive effect of early repricing actions on loan yields. Pressure on deposit costs

Quarterly NIM Analysis

1,818

(1) NIM = Net interest income (NII) / Avg. IEAs

Note: NIM and yield on securities adjusted to exclude the effect of reclassification as per BRSA between interest income and

other provisions related to impairment of held to maturity securities.

Reported NIM figures as follows. 1Q10: 5.8%, 4Q10: 4.2%, 1Q11: 3.8%, 2Q11: 3.3%

Performing loan volume and net interest income used for loan yield calculations

Loan

Yield

Deposit

Cost

Securities

Yield

Bank

Subs

Net Interest Margin (NIM)1

Benchmark

Bond Rate8.5%8.5%9.0%8.2%

Quarterly Cumulative

NII declining 5% y/y driven by Bank (-6%)

Cumulative NIM at 3.5% (-152 bps y/y) driven by low

interest rate environment, regulation and competition

Quarterly NIM at 3.4% (-23 bps q/q) resulting from:

- Increase in TL loan-deposit spread due to early loan

repricing

- Decline in FC loan-deposit spread due to increasing FC

deposit costs on the back of reduced sector liquidity

- Stable securities yield

824

7.6% 8.8%

NIM excl. CBRT

balances

10.3%

8.7% 8.8%

7.4%

7.3% 7.3%

5.2%5.0% 5.2%

2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11

885 834

1,718

4.5% 3.9% 3.7% 5.0% 4.7% 3.6%

-5%

2%

-6%

y/yQuarterly Cumulative

4.4%3.6% 3.4%

4Q10 1Q11 2Q11

5.0% 4.6%

3.5%

1H10 2010 1H11

TL Loan-

Deposit

Spread

FC Loan-

Deposit

Spread

5.8%

4.1% 4.2%

2.7%

2.4%1.9%

2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11

13.0%10.9%11.0%

7.3%

6.7% 6.8%

4.8% 4.7% 4.7%

2.1%

2.2%2.8%

2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11

FC loan yield

FC deposit cost

TL loan yield

TL deposit cost

Housing 9.2%

Gen Pur7.2%

Auto 1.7%

Comm. Install13.1%

Credit Cards14.5%

TL Companies

18.9%

FC Companies

37.1%

12

Loans

Loans

Overall growth in 1H in line with budget path driven by higher margin GPL and

SME in local currency and project finance in foreign currency

Composition of Loans

Note: Sector data based on weekly BRSA unconsolidated figures. Market shares based on unconsolidated figures for YKB and sector

according to BRSA classification with FC-indexed loans included in TL loans

(1) Total performing loans

(2) Proxy for SME loans as per BRSA reporting. Growth adjusted for YK Nederland reclassification (1.9 mln TL at YE10)

(3) Based on MIS data. Please refer to annex for Yapı Kredi’s internal segment definitions

(4) Including consumer loans (housing, general purpose, auto), commercial installment and credit cards.

Loan Growth by Business Unit3

Retail

Loans4:

46%

Consumer

Loans:

18.0%

TL 65%

FC 35%

13% 14%16%

7%14%

11%5%

-5%

8% 11% 9%

31%

Individual SME Commercial Corporate

2Q10 1Q11 2Q11

bln TL 2Q11YKB

2Q Growth

YKB

Ytd Growth

Sector

Ytd GrowthMk Shr

Total Loans1 63.7 13% 17% 17% 10.5%

TL 41.1 15% 19% 17% 9.8%

FC ($) 14.2 2% 9% 12% 12.3%

Consumer Loans 11.5 7% 19% 21% 7.5%

Mortgages 5.9 2% 11% 16% 8.7%

General Purpose 4.6 13% 34% 26% 5.8%

Auto 1.1 8% 12% 16% 17.3%

Credit Cards 9.2 8% 8% 14% 18.2%

Companies 43.0 15% 19% 16% 10.6%

TL 20.4 25% 24% 15% 9.3%

FC ($) 14.2 2% 9% 12% 12.3%

Com. Installment2 8.3 9% 20% 28% 9.1%

Impacted by a few temporary

short-term big ticket loans at

end-2Q. Excluding: 20%

58% 55%

42% 45%

2010 2Q11

17%

15%

18%

15%

YKB Sector

40%29%

57%63%

1% 3%2% 5%

YE10 2Q11

13

Deposits

DepositsOverall growth in 1H in line with sector with increasing emphasis on demand deposits and lengthening maturity

Note: Sector data based on weekly BRSA unconsolidated figures. Market shares based on unconsolidated figures for YKB and sector

(1) Customer deposits exclude bank deposits

(2) Retail includes SME, mass, affluent and private. Based on MIS data

Total deposits +6% ytd (in line with sector) driven by FC

deposits (10% in US$ terms). TL deposits stable impacted

by RRR hikes and competition. Strong increase in share

of retail2 in total TL deposits (76% vs 68% at YE10)

Solid demand deposit growth (9% vs 6% sector) leading

to increase in demand deposit / total deposits ratio (18%)

AUM relatively stable impacted by market conditions

Demand Deposits / Total Deposits

Composition of Total Deposits

TL

FC

2010 2Q11 2010 2Q11

Share of

Retail2: 45%

Share of

Retail2: 76%

By Currency By Maturity (months)

Share of

Retail2: 47%

Share of

Retail2: 68%

+12M6M-12M

1-6M

<1M

bln TL 2Q11YKB

2Q Growth

YKB

Ytd Growth

Sector

Ytd GrowthMk Shr

Total Deposits58.7 5% 6% 6% 8.6%

TL 32.1 0% 0% 5% 7.2%

FC ($) 16.7 5% 10% 3% 11.7%

Customer Deposits1 57.0 4% 7% 6% 8.9%

Demand Deposits 10.4 10% 9% 6% 10.1%

AUM 9.0 -2% -1% 1% 18.0%

Securitisations8%

Syndications27%

Sub-debt 15%

LPN7%

Supranational9%

Issued Bonds6%

Other28%15% 15%

3%9%

59%55%

12% 11%

11% 10%

2010 2Q11

14

Liability Composition (bln TL)

Deposits

Repos

Borrowings1

Other

SHE

92.8 107.5

Increasing diversification of the funding base

- 1,450 mln USD syndication with 145% rollover in

Apr’11 (Libor+1.10%, -40bps vs previous year, 1 year

maturity)

- 1 bln TL bond issuance in domestic capital markets

in Jun’11 (8.86% compounded rate, 175 days

maturity)

Short term liquidity management via utilisation of

repo funding (9% of total liabilities vs 3% at YE10)

(1) Includes funds borrowed, sub-debt and marketable securities issued. Please refer to annex for details on international borrowings

(2) Other includes eximbank, postfinancing loans and subsidiaries

10%

ytd

12%

6%

191%

21%

16%

FundingFurther diversification of the funding base

Composition of Borrowings

2

16.4 bln TL

in 1H11

91% 93% 92%

9% 7% 8%

2Q10 1Q11 2Q11

91%92%

9%8%

1H10 1H11 42% 41%

37%

38%

8%

6%2%

2%11%

13%

1H10 1H11

15

Key Drivers of Fee Growth

Fees & Commissions Robust growth performance driven by focused approach and volume growth

Fees +11% y/y driven by Bank (+13% y/y)

- Credit card fees +14% y/y contributed by volume growth and

increase in interchange/acquiring fees. Share in total at 41%

confirming increasing diversification of fee base

- Lending related fees +20% y/y driven by volume growth and

repricing in some consumer loans. Share in total at 38%

- Asset management fees -16% y/y due to fund management fee cap

decline and stable volumes

- Insurance fees +55% y/y due to bancassurance focus

- Other fees +17% y/y mainly driven by increasing contribution

of product bundle fees and campaigns

Subs fees impacted by fund management fee cap decline (-4% y/y)

Composition of Bank Fees & CommissionsNet Fees & Commissions (mln TL)

(1) Total Bank fees received as of 1H11: 1,001 mln TL (874 mln TL in 1H10). Total fees paid as of 1H11: 149 mln TL (117 mln TL in 1H10)

(2) Other includes account maintenance, money transfers, equity trading, campaign fees, product bundle fees etc.

(3) As of May 2011

Credit Cards

Lending Related

(cash and

non-cash)

Asset MgmtInsurance

Other2

14%

20%

-16%

55%

17%

Y/Y Growth

430

Bank

Subs

830

New

Products

New Fee

Areas

Focus on

Collection

Fee

Generating

Products

Continued strong product bundle sales

138K sales in 1H11 (43% of 2011 target achieved)

Solid performance of leasing & factoring fees

+92% y/y

Strong trend in collection ratio due to focused efforts

61% retail (+6pp vs YE10)

Continued robust performance in bancassurance (+55% y/y),

trade finance (+20% ytd avg volumes), cash mngmt (+12% ytd

avg volumes), derivative trading (+7% ytd)

471

63% 66%

Sector:

50%3

451

922

-4%

13%

Fees /

Opex -117 -149

874

1,001

Fees &

Commissions

Received

Fees &

Commissions

Paid

11%

Non-HR2

Other1

42%46%

53%

49%

5%5%

1H10 1H11

16

Total Operating Costs (mln TL)

HR

Operating Costs Continuation of controlled cost growth

Cost /

Income

Total costs +7% y/y; +6% excluding

one-offs3, in line with inflation

HR costs +17% y/y impacted by bonus

payments in 1Q11 (+12% y/y excluding

one-offs3)

- Number of employees at 14,547

(+136 vs YE10) driven by branch

expansion

Non-HR costs -2% y/y4 impacted by

one-off items in 1H10 (NPL sale legal

fees and non-cash loan general

provisions), +1% y/y excluding one-offs3

- Number of branches at 887, +19 net

openings in 2Q, +2% ytd. Market share

at 9.1%

Other costs 10% y/y driven by stabilised

pension fund deficit5 and effective

management of Worldcard loyalty points41.8%

(1) Other includes pension fund provisions and loyalty points on Worldcard

(2) Non-HR costs include HR related non-HR, advertising, rent, SDIF, taxes and depreciation

(3) One-offs in 1Q10: NPL sale legal fees (9.2 mln TL), non-cash loan general provisions (13 mln TL) in non-HR costs 1Q11: variable compensation (30 mln TL) in HR costs

(4) Including branch tax: 1Q10: 40 mln TL, 1Q11: 44 mln TL

(5) Obligation to provide all qualified employees with pension and post-retirement benefits, calculated annually by an independent actuary registered with the

Undersecretariat of the Treasury

1,312

46% 46% 47%

54% 50% 48%

4% 5%

2Q10 1Q11 2Q11

43.5%

1,399 7%

688711622

10%

-2%

17%

0%

4.3%

6.3%

3.4% 3.2% 2.9%

2008 2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11

17

NPL Ratio

Asset QualityContinuing positive trend

NPL

Volume (bln TL)

NPL Ratio by Segment

Net Inflows

Collections

/ Inflows

-27

107%

Collections

NPL Inflows

Asset Quality Flows (mln TL)

4.3%

7.7%

4.4% 3.8% 3.4%

6.3%

10.0%

5.3%5.6%

5.3%

6.8%

12.6%

5.1% 4.5% 4.1%

2.5% 3.0%2.0% 1.8% 1.6%

2008 2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11

NPL ratio down to 2.9% (vs 3.4% at YE10), in line with

sector, driven by decelerating NPL inflows, strong

collections and solid loan growth

- NPL ratio improving in all segments with

deceleration in NPL flows

Collection/inflows at 98% in 1H11 on the back of

declining NPL inflows and strong collections performance

(1) Including cross default. If excluding, 2Q11: 2.8%

(2) As per YKB’s internal segment definition, SMEs: companies with annual turnover <5 mln USD. Corporate & Commercial: companies with annual

turnover >5 mln USD

(3) Excluding one large commercial position (fully provisioned including collaterals) booked as NPL in 3Q

-30 bps

Credit Cards

313

80%3

140

85%

1.7

SME2

Consumer Loans1

Corporate & Comm.2

2.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 42

88%

910

1,138

760

400 360

770 825

745

427 318

1H10 2H10 1H11 1Q11 2Q11

15

98%

18

Specific and General Provisioning Cost of Risk2 Cumulative net off collections

Total coverage of NPL volume at 120% (including specific and general provisions)

Specific coverage at 76% (-1pp vs YE10) driven by improving asset quality

Generic coverage of total performing loans at 1.2% (vs 1.3% at YE10)

Total cost of risk (net off collections) at 0.25% (vs -0.03% in 1H10)

Provisioning and CoRStrong NPL coverage and improving cost of risk driven by continuation of positive asset quality

77% 78% 76%

40% 44% 44%

2010 1Q11 2Q11

Specific provisions / NPL

General provisions / NPL

(1) Coverage of total performing loans

(2) Cost of risk = (total loan loss provisions – collections) / total gross loans

Note: General provisions / NPL= (standard + watch provisions) / NPL

Total general provisions / performing loans = (standard + watch provisions) / performing loans

100%

122%117%

1.43%

3.72%

0.81%

0.48%0.25%

1.09%

3.14%

0.68%

-0.11% -0.07%

2008 2009 2010 1Q11 1H11

Total

Specific

120%

1.1% 1.1% 1.1%

6.5%8.7%

6.5%

2010 1Q11 2Q11

Watch

Standard

Total1 1.3% 1.3% 1.2%

General Loan Coverage

39%23%

1.0%

0.3%

47%

53%

13%21%

0%3%

2007 2Q11

330 326

2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11

~433,000 ~426,000

~222,000

2010 2Q11

19

* Other includes POS, mobile etc.

Note: BRSA Bank-only figures used for commercial effectiveness indicators. All other figures based on MIS data

RM = Relationship Manager

Commercial EffectivenessOngoing initiatives resulting in continuous improvement

Productivity

6,935

8,707

2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11

Systems / Efficiency

Core Revenues / Employee (ths TL)

Customer Business / Employee (ths TL)

Products / Services

Conversion of Card only Clients

• 2.0 mln total card

only clients

• 51% of 2011 target

achieved

2011

Target:

Non-branch Channels in Total Transactions

Retail Cross-sell

3.30

3.693.81

3.90

2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11

Synergies with Insurance Subs(# of new products sold)

1Q11 2Q11 Δ

# of Health

Policies9,739 30,419 212%

# of SME Policies 3,411 9,136 168%

# of Income

Protection

Policies2,596 4,802 85%

# of Commercial

Credit Life

Policies8,327 18,131 118%

26%

8% 1%

Retail Demand Deposits / Relationship Manager

(ths TL)

1,411

1,274

1,414

2010 1Q11 2Q11

SMEMass

Affluent

11%

9%

20%

Ytd Growth

77%61%

Other

ATM

Branches

Internet

Call Center

20




Outlook

Agenda

944

229

68

140

469

Retail322%

Revenues driven by high margin loan growth,

early loan repricing and robust fees (19 %y/y).

Solid performance by SME (28% y/y) followed by

Mass (21% y/y) compensating affluent (stable y/y)

Revenues impacted by lower cap rates (-32bps),

decline in revolving ratio and increased cost of

funding

Revenues impacted by contraction in AUM

volumes and derivative products together with

decrease in mutual fund cap rates impacting fee

performance (-19% y/y)

Revenues driven by selective lending approach

and continuation of competitive environment

Weight in Bank

Drivers of revenue growthY/Y(1H10 – 1H11)

Revenues(mln TL)

Revenues driven by volume growth

40% 35%

Customer Business2

(1) Revenues excluding treasury and other

(2) Customer business = Loans + Deposits + AUM

(3) Retail includes individual (mass and affluent) and SME banking

(4) Net of loyalty point expenses on World cards

Note: all figures based on MIS data

Performance of Business UnitsStrong performance of retail, corporate and commercial. Cards impacted by decline

in cap rate and higher cost of funding. Private impacted by difficult market conditions

21

Credit

Cards4

Private

Corporate

10% 7%

3% 13%

6% 18%

20% 23%

Commercial

-37%

-20%

20%

9%

Revenues1

Performance of Subsidiaries Strong profitability performance at core product factories. YK Portföy impacted by decrease in

mutual fund cap rates. Robust performance at insurance subsidiaries

Strong revenue growth driven by higher premium

generation and improving technical margins on the

back of focus on high margin segments

22

YK Leasing

Revenues(mln TL)

Revenue (y/y growth)

ROE Sector

Positioning

96

YK Factoring

YK Yatırım

YK Portföy

311

892

36 126%

Strong revenue performance driven by increased

business volume on the back of enhanced

synergies with SME segment

YK Sigorta

YK Emeklilik

YK Moscow

YK NV

YK Azerbaijan

Revenue performance positively impacted by

higher net interest income and strong fee

performance

Revenue performance impacted by competitive

environment in equity trading

Revenue contraction due to decrease in mutual

fund cap rates

883 27%

Revenue growth driven by above sector

pension fund volume growth and improving

performance in life insurance segment 56 30%

15 10% 12%

13 -13% 10%

Positive revenue performance driven by strong

volume growth compensating for margin pressure

Revenues impacted by ongoing margin pressure

39 -3% 10%

(1) Including dividend income from YK Sigorta. Revenue growth adjusted with dividend income

(2) Including dividend income from YK Portföy. Revenue growth adjusted with dividend income

(3) Including dividend income from YK Emeklilik. Revenue growth adjusted with dividend income

(4) As of Mar’11

(5) As of May’11

(6) 5.4% life insurance market share as of May’11; 16.0% private pension market share as of June’11

55%

67%

19%

19%

30%3

-11%

0%2

36%1

13%

Revenues impacted by decrease in securities income

due to continuation of TL bond portfolio sales

#1 in total

transaction volume

(18.9% mkt share)

#1 in total factoring

volume

(19.1% mkt share)4

#3 in equity

transaction volume

(5.5% mkt share)

#2 in mutual fund

volume

(17.4% mkt share)

#2 in health

insurance

(14.8% mkt share)5

#5 in life insurance6

#3 in private pensions6

Key Highlights

335 mln TL

total assets

333 mln TL

total assets

3.7 bln TL

total assets

Core Product

Factories

Insurance

Subs

International

Subs

23




Outlook

Agenda

24

2H11 OutlookSlowdown in sector loan growth expected in 2H with increasing focus on profitability in a more rational environment

MACRO

Moderation in economic activity on the back of contained domestic demand and weak external

demand impacted by regulatory actions and global uncertainty (2011E GDP growth: 5.8%)

Sustained low inflation despite possible short-term acceleration in core inflation(2011E inflation: 6.9%)

Improvement in current account deficit in 4Q on the back of CBRT policy mix and regulatory actions

CBRT policy rate hike expected to be postponed to 2012

SECTOR

YKB

Continuation of volume growth in line with CBRT guidance (2011E loan growth: 25%, deposit growth: 15/20%)

Acceleration of funding diversification(further eurobond and TL bond issuances)

NIM to progressively improve in 2H11 on the back of positive effect of upward loan repricing subject

to more rational deposit competition (2011E: -80/100 bps vs 2010)

Continued emphasis on fee generation(2011E: ~15%)

Controlled cost growth (2011E: in line with inflation)

Asset quality to remain strong, in line with sector trend

Ongoing branch expansion to reach 50/60 openings by end of 2011

Significant slowdown in loan growth in 2H accompanied by lessened funding pressure (2011E loan

growth: 25%, deposit growth: 15/17%) resulting in reduced NIM pressure vs 1H (2011E: -80/100 bps vs 2010)

Positive asset quality trend to continue (2011E CoR < 2010 level)

2011E = 2011 Estimate

25

StrategyYKB confirms long-term strategic pillars while effectively managing the new environment in the short-term

New operating environment highly impacted by intensification of regulations / fierce competition with

implications on banking sector profitability:

- Short-term: Significant pressure on profitability via acceleration of expected structural NIM compression trend in

banking sector, calling for more rational behaviour by banks

- Long-term: Full impact on profitability subject to future evolution of regulatory landscape and competitive

dynamics

Despite short-term uncertainty, Turkey’s prospects structurally positive with strong macroeconomic

fundamentals (taking into account potential risks on CAD, inflation) and underpenetrated / healthy banking sector

In this context, Yapı Kredi will continue its focus on achieving long-term strategic pillars while effectively

managing the new environment in the short-term

Short-Term Focus Areas

Upward loan repricing actions

Emphasis on optimal asset allocation

Focus on cost of funding optimisation,

lenghtening maturity and diversification

Realignment of ALM strategies

Long-Term Strategic Pillars of YKB

Growth and commercial effectiveness

NIM management

Funding and liquidity

Cost and efficiency

Asset quality

Sustainability

26




Outlook

Annex

Agenda

27

Detailed Performance by Strategic Business Unit

Other Details

Agenda

Retail:

- SME: Companies with turnover less than 5 mln USD

- Affluent: Individuals with assets less than 500K TL

- Mass: Individuals with assets less than 50K TL

Commercial: Companies with annual turnover between 5-100 mln USD

Corporate: Companies with annual turnover above 100 mln USD

Private: Individuals with assets above 500K TL

28

Definitions of Strategic Business Units

21%

20%

33%

15%

6% 21%

20%

3%

0%

26%

10%

15% 0%

40%

31%39%

Revenues Loans Deposits

29

Performance by Strategic Business UnitsDiversified revenue mix with retail focused loan and deposit portfolio

Revenues and Volumes by Business Unit1 1H11 (Bank only)

Treasury and Other

Commercial

Corporate

Private

Credit Cards2

Retail (including SME)

Note: Loan and deposit allocations based on end of period volumes (source: MIS data). All SBU figures based on 1H11 segmentat ion criteria

(1) Please refer to definitions of Business Units

(2) Net of loyalty point expenses on World card

50%46%

65%

84%

28%33% 33%

6%

13%

21%

43%

10%

59%

46%

24%

Retail Banking ~60% of retail banking revenues generated by SME business

30

Retail Banking Composition (1H11)

~570K active SME clients

generating 59% of total retail

revenues (+28% y/y growth),

46% of retail loans and 24%

of retail deposits

~5.1 mln active banking

clients in mass segment


revenues (+21% y/y growth)

and 33% of both retail loans

and deposits

~389K affluent clients


revenues, 21% of retail loans

and 43% of retail deposits

+22% y/y

SME

6.0 mln TL 944 mln TL 18.3 bln TL 20.8 bln

Affluent

Mass

+28%

+0%

+21%

~570K

~389K

~5.1 mln

# of Clients Revenues Loans Deposits

3.13%2.87% 2.82%

2Q10 1Q11 2Q11

Retail (Mass & Affluent)Revenues driven by high margin loan growth, early loan repricing and robust fee performance

31

Revenues /Customer Business1

Revenues +14% y/y driven by robust loan growth in high margin areas, especially general purpose and

strong fee performance (19% y/y)

Loans +23% ytd mainly driven by general purpose loans (+34%)

Deposits +7% ytd driven by TL deposits (+8%)

Consumer loan NPL ratio down to 3.4%2

(vs 3.8% at 1Q11) driven by deceleration in NPL inflows and

positively impacted by volume growth

Note: Volumes (loans, deposits and AUM) based on end of period data except for revenues/customer business ratio which is based on 3 month average. MIS data.

(1) Customer business: Loans + Deposits + AUM

(2) Excluding cross default

TL mln 1H11

Revenues 382 14% y/y

Loans 9,819 23%

Deposits 15,695 7%

AUM 2,840 7%

% of Demand in Retail Deposits 16.8% 1.1 pp

% of TL in Retail Deposits 76.6% 0.5 pp

% of TL in Retail Loans 99% 0.3 pp

ytd

32

Retail (SME)Revenues driven by strong volume growth and robust fee performance


Revenues +28% y/y driven by strong volume growth and robust fee performance (25% y/y)

Loans +24% ytd driven by focused approach and increased commercial effectiveness

Deposits +4% ytd driven by TL(+4%)

SME NPL ratio down to 4.1% (vs 4.5% at 1Q11) driven by deceleration in NPL inflows and positively impacted by volume growth

Note: Volumes (loans, deposits and AUM) based on end of period data except for revenues/customer business ratio which is based on 3 month

average. MIS data.


TL mln 1H11


Loans 8,498 24%

Deposits 5,095 4%

AUM 772 1%

% of Demand in SME Deposits 43.3% 1.4 pp

% of TL in SME Deposits 74.4% -0.2 pp

% of TL in SME Loans 96% 0.1 pp

ytd

9.49%

8.10%8.85%

2Q10 1Q11 2Q11

18.2% 18.7%

20.5%

16.4%

Outstanding Issuing Acquiring No of Cards

33

Credit CardsRevenues impacted by continued decline in cap rates and lower revolving ratio

Volumes and Market Shares3

~626K new World cards issued in 1H11

Net revenues1 impacted by continued decline in cap rates (-32 bps in 1H11) in a stable interest rate environment, lower revolving ratio and higher cost of funding

Credit Card NPL ratio down to 5.3% (vs 5.6% in 1Q11) on the back of decelerating inflows

4

(1) Net of loyalty point expenses on World card

(2) Including virtual cards (2009: 1.5 mln, 2010: 1.5 mln, Jun’11: 1.5 mln)

(3) Market shares and volumes based on bank-only 6-month cumulative figures

(4) Based on personal and corporate credit card outstanding volume. Retail credit card outstanding volume (excluding corporate) market

share: 18.2%

Volumes(bln TL)

9.2 25.3 28.1TL mln 1H10 1H11

Revenues 412 283 -31% y/y

Net Revenues1 364 229 -37% y/y

# of Credit Cards (mln)2 7.7 8.0 3%

# of Merchants (ths) 315 321 5%

# of POS (ths) 378 418 7%

Activation 84.6% 84.7% 0.0 pp

ytd

34

PrivateRevenues impacted by contraction in AUM volume and derivative products as well as decrease in mutual fund cap rates


Revenues -20% y/y driven by contraction in AUM volume and derivate products due to volatility in financial markets as well as decrease in mutual fund cap rates

Deposits +23% ytd driven by TL (+24%) and FC (+15% in USD terms)

Loans -9% ytd driven by both TL and FC (~-10%)

Continued focus on leveraging on product factories in distribution of asset management and brokerage products with further development of existing customer base and customer acquisition


average. MIS data.


TL mln 1H11

Revenues 68 -20% y/y

Loans 221 -9%

Deposits 13,872 23%

AUM 2,350 -26%

% of Demand in Priv. Deposits 4.4% -1.1 pp

% of TL in Priv. Deposits 60.5% 0.5 pp

% of TL in Priv. Loans 75% -1.3 pp

ytd

1.21%

0.96%

0.83%

2Q10 1Q11 2Q11

35

CommercialRevenues driven by selective lending approach on the back of competitive environment


Revenues +9% driven by selective lending approach in a competitive environment

Loans +14% ytd driven by TL (10% ytd) and FC (+11% ytd in USD terms)

Deposits +5% ytd driven by FC deposits in USD terms (+4% ytd in USD terms). TL deposits stable

Sound asset quality maintained (Corporate/Commercial NPL ratio at 1.6%)


average. MIS data.


TL mln 1H11

Revenues 469 9% y/y

Loans 19,359 14%

Deposits 8,238 5%

AUM 216 -3%

% of Demand in Com. Deposits 33.2% -2.2 pp

% of TL in Com. Deposits 42.8% -2.2 pp

% of TL in Com. Loans 30% -1.3 pp

ytd

4.16%

3.50%3.75%

2Q10 1Q11 2Q11

36

CorporateRevenues driven by volume growth

Revenues +20% y/y driven by loan growth and disciplined pricing approach compensating for margin pressure

Loans 24% ytd driven by balanced growth in TL (+28% ytd) and FC loans (+16% ytd in USD terms)

Deposits -11% ytd due to contraction in TL deposits (-49% ytd) in view of reserve requirement hikes

Sound asset quality maintained (Corporate/Commercial NPL ratio at 1.6%)


average. MIS data.



TL mln 1H11


Loans 12,172 24%

Deposits 10,556 -11%

AUM 40 -33%

% of Demand in Corp. Deposits 5.1% -0.5 pp

% of TL in Corp. Deposits 30.3% -22.5 pp

% of TL in Corp. Loans 24% 0.9 pp

ytd

4.16%

3.50%

3.75%

2Q10 1Q11 2Q11

37

Detailed Performance by Strategic Business Unit

Other Details

Agenda

66%58% 59%

29%37% 37%

5% 5% 4%

54% 55% 53%

46% 45% 47%

Securities59% of securities portfolio invested in HTM

38

(1% FRN)

(58% FRN)

(1% FRN)

(49% FRN)

38

Share of Held to Maturity (HTM) at 59% (vs 58% in 1Q11). HTM mix in total securities higher at

bank level at 62%

Share of securities in total assets down to 19% (vs 21% in 1Q11)

Share of TL securities in total securities at 53% (vs 55% in 1Q11)

(49% FRN)

(1% FRN)

Trading

AFS

HTM

19,921 20,591 20,942

5% ytd

Securities Composition by Type Securities Composition by Currency (TL mln)

TL

FC

2010 1Q11 1H11 2010 1Q11 1H11

~ USD 825 mln outstanding

Dec 06 and Mar 07: ~USD 365 mln, 6 wrapped notes, 7-8 years, Libor+18-35 bps

Aug 10 - DPR Exchange: ~USD 460 mln, 5 unwrapped notes, 5 years

€1,050 mln outstanding

Mar 06: €500 mln, 10NC5, Libor+2.00% p.a.

Apr 06: €350 mln, 10NC5, Libor+2.25% p.a.

Jun 07: €200 mln, 10NC5, Libor+1.85% p.a.

Sace Loan - Jan 07: €100 mln, all-in Euribor+1.20% p.a, 5 years

EIB Loan - Jul 08-Dec 10: €350 mln, 5-15 years

IBRD (World Bank) Loan - Nov 08: USD 25 mln, Libor+1.50% p.a, 6 years

~ USD 2.7 bln outstanding

Apr 11: ~USD 1.45 bln, Libor +1.1% bps all-in cost, 1 year

Sept 10: ~USD 1.25 bln, Libor + 1.30% bps all-in cost, 1 year

USD 750 mln Loan Participation Note (LPN)

Oct 10: 5.1875% (cost), 5 years

Borrowings

Syndications

Securitisations

Subordinated

Loans

Loan Participation

Note

Multinational

Loans

Inte

rnati

on

al

TL BondTL 1 bln bond issue

Jun 11: 8.86% compounded cost, 175 days maturity

Do

mesti

c

39

yapı kredi 1h11 earnings presentation · 2019-11-11 · yapı kredi 1h11 earnings presentation...

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