Year 10

Global Studies

GLOBAL CONFLICTS

AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ

U.S invasion of AfghanistanCauses of conflict U.S response to September 11 terrorist attacks on

New York and Washington Taliban’s refusal to hand over bin-Laden al Qaeda training camps established in Afghanistan

during period of Taliban rule – 1996-2001 S11 culmination of a series of terrorist attacks against

U.S1998 – bombing of embassies in Kenya/Tanzania2000 – USS Cole2001 – September 11

Afghanistan – nature of the conflict-phase 1 Began as a combination of conventional warfare

between states and civil /ethnic conflict U.S use of air power to bomb Taliban positions &

al Qaeda camps, combined with extensive use of Afghan ‘Northern Alliance’ ground forces

- U.N authorised use of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) under NATO leadership to support U.S forces

Rapid capture of cities by U.S/Northern Alliance -removal of Taliban regime from power

Afghanistan – ethnic make up

Pashtun regions(Taliban )

Northern Aliance groups

Changing nature of Afghan conflict Re-grouping of Taliban in rural areas in the

predominantly Pashtun south and east

Taliban insurgency against Afghan government and U.S/ISAF forces - terrorist campaign against Afghan civilians co-operating with Afghan government/U.S/ISAF forces

Insurgency – armed rebellion against an established system of government within a state

Terrorism – use of violence against civilians aimed at instilling fear to achieve a political goal

Taliban insurgency- key factorsGeography

Taliban insurgency- key factorsU.S. use of military power- Bombing raids targeting Taliban result in civilian casualties- Focus on capturing/killing Taliban rather than protecting

civilians against Taliban violence & intimidation- Civilian casualties fuel ‘accidental guerilla’ syndrome (Kilcullen)

Afghan villagers bury their dead- 6 women, 2 children following U.S bombing raid aimed at Taliban- Feb. 2009

Taliban insurgency-key factors• ‘Accidental guerilla syndrome’ ‘Most of the adversaries Western powers have

been fighting since 9/11 are in fact accidental guerillas: people who fight us not because they hate the West and seek our overthrow but because we have invaded their space to deal with a small extremist element…They fight us not because they seek our destruction but because they believe we seek theirs.’

David Kilcullen – The Accidental Guerilla

Taliban Insurgency – key factorsIneffective and corrupt government- Karzai elected President 2004, 2009- Parliamentary elections 2005, 2010- Widespread corruption and ineffectiveness

together with tradition of local tribal governance = lack of legitimacy

President Hamid KarzaiAfghan elections

Evaluation – extent & limitations of U.S powerU.S objectives outcomes

-Removal of Taliban from power

-Capture/kill bin Laden, al Qaeda leaders

-Destruction of al- Qaeda training camps

-Establishment of democracy in Afghanistan

Taliban removed from power but re-grouped – ongoing insurgency2010 - ‘troop surge’ and shift in tactics to focus on protection of Afghan population- too early to judge if this will succeed but some promising early signs

Dispersal/capture/killing of some key al Qaeda figures but fail to find bin Laden or Zawahiri (bin-Laden’s ‘deputy’)

Presidential and parliamentary elections held but government remains weak and ineffectual outside the capital Kabul

Afghan government/President lack legitimacy

U.S invasion & occupation of IraqCausesIraq’s alleged possession of biological and

chemical weapons – attempts to acquire nuclear weapons

Iraq in breach of UNSC Resolution 1441 requiring return of U.N weapons inspectors

Alleged links with al qaeda – fears of passing on Weapons Mass Destruction (WMD)

Neo-Conserative ideology – belief U.S should use its power to spread liberal-democratic values

Influence of neo-conservative ideology in Bush Administration

-‘we need to strengthen ties with democratic allies and challenge regimes hostile to our interests and values’

- ‘we need to accept responsibility for America’s unique role in preserving and extending an international order friendly to our security, prosperity and principles’Statement of principles – Project for New American Century

Sunni Arab

Shi’a Arab

Sunni Kurd

Sunni/Shi’a Arab

Sunni Arab/Kurds

Changing nature of the conflict2003 –regime changeOverwhelming U.S military power in conventional

warfare against a state-removal of Saddam’s Baathist regime from power

2004 – 2007Sunni and Shi’a insurgenciesSunni/Shi’a civil conflict al Qaeda in Iraq – (no link prior to U.S invasion)2007 – 2010Ongoing insurgent and terrorist activity but ‘troop

surge’ & changed tactics=improved security

Armed opposition to U.S occupationSunni insurgents- Former high ranking Baath Party members- Remnants of Iraqi armed forces –Baath loyalists- Iraqis with grievances against U.S occupation

(accidental guerillas)Shi’a insurgents- Militia groups who aimed to impose Sharia law in

Shi’a dominated southern Iraq al Qaeda in Iraq- foreign fighters from other Arab states

Factors in the insurgenciesU.S decisions to disband Iraqi army and dismissal

from jobs of all Baath Party members

Iraq placed under rule of Coalition Provisional Authority 2003 – June 2004 – loss of sovereignty

Human rights abuses by U.S – Abu Ghraib prison

Use of mass arrests by U.S alienates Iraqis

Lack of troop numbers 2003-2007

Sectarian civil conflict2004-2007Attacks by Sunni insurgents and al Qaeda in

Iraq against Shi’a civilians, provoking response from Shi’a militia groups

Causes – Sunni fear of Shi’a domination- Creation of civil conflict makes U.S occupation

more difficult 2007 – present- Sunni tribal groups turn against al Qaeda- U.S ‘troop surge’ – improved security

Iraqi civilian deaths in civil conflict

Deaths per day from bombings Deaths per day from shootings

Source: iraqbodycount.com.org

• U.S/coalition forces

Sunni insurgents

al Qaeda in Iraq

Shi’a insurgents

Shi’a civilians

Conflict in Iraq

Sunni Arabtribal groups*

* Sunni tribal groups turn against al Qaeda from 2007

Extent and limitations of U.S powerTo what extent has the U.S succeeded in Iraq?

Extent of U.S power Limitations

Military powerRapid overthrow of Baathist regime shows overwhelming U.S military power in conventional conflict against a state

Diplomatic powerCapacity to put together a coalition of states to support Iraq invasion without U.N authorisation (though many = small, weak states)

Economic power-Able to sustain forces in Iraq (and Afghanistan) despite enormous economic costs of the conflict

Military power-Shows limits of U.S military power in countering insurgencies/terrorism-Lacks resources to effectively fight two wars at once over long period- Sensitivity to casualties led to use of tactics that fuelled the insurgencies

Diplomatic power- No U.N authorisation for invasion- Democracy established in Iraq but government weak and ineffectual -A number of states have withdrawn from the coalition (including Australia)

Economic power- Cost of war in Iraq (and Afghanistan) major factor in U.S debt – also a factor in its decision to withdraw by end of 2011