year 2022 - the future of auto industry looking to 2027 - conference keynote speaker
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http://www.globalchange.com Rapid improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency using petrol and diesel, and many new ultra-efficient hybrid vehicles. Even if we only saw 30% energy saving in 30% of vehicle miles driven in developed nations over the next decade, we would save at least 9% in motoring energy use (at today’s rate of miles driven a year). That would be the same as cutting today’s global emissions by more than 1%. Greening of the world car fleet is happening rapidly. JD Power Consultancy estimates that a third of emission cuts by 2020 will come from improving petrol and diesel engines, and 14% from miles driven in electric vehicles. If all vehicles in America were hybrids, and half were plug-in hybrids (larger batteries), US imports of oil would fall by 8 million barrels a day or by 80% of daily consumption. Electric vehicles are one of the most important ways to reduce motoring costs, reduce carbon use in transport, improve air quality and reduce global warming. Expect battery-powered vehicles to be 10% of the market by 2020. Models like Nissan’s Leaf and Chevrolet’s Volt have led the way. Much of government economic stimulus packages for the auto industry have been linked to green tech, of which a huge proportion is things like battery technology. 16 million new cars a year are sold in EU alone (2.4m in UK). If we assume that up to 25% of the smallest car market could be electric cars within 10 years, that would mean over 1 million sold each year, at an average cost of EU11,000. Electric car sales would then be worth at least EU11bn a year in the EU. Electric cars can produce much lower emissions than burning fuel in mobile engines, but it all depends on how the electricity is generated. Burning petrol or diesel in a small, mobile engine can be inefficient compared to the most efficient coal-fired power generators. When petrol is used to power a vehicle, only 15-20% of the energy is usually captured to drive the car forward, compared to 40% in making electricity in an efficient coal power station. It is true that a small amount of power is lost between power station and battery, and 20% of electricity put into the car is lost in heat (batteries and other components). But even when we include these things, we can see that “coal-powered” electric cars are likely to be better users of fossil fuels than diesel or petrol vehicles. Where wind, solar, waves, tide or nuclear power is used to charge batteries, electric cars have zero emissions. Either way, air quality improves dramatically in cities as the use of electric vehicles increases. Owners can also save a huge amount of vehicle tax on petrol or diesel since taxation is far lower on electricity. It typically costs only 1-2 cents a mile in electricity.TRANSCRIPT
- 1. Take Hold of Your FuturePatrick Dixon 10th September 2022
2. Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of 15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most inuential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50)Year 2022 - The Future of Auto Industry Looking to 2027 - Keynote for TRW Auto Industry(2012)500 videos of keynoteswww.youtube.com/pjvdixonover 4 million viewswww.globalchange.com14 million unique visitors 3. 2022 scenario was - michelle obama wins 2020, misclaulation by Iran, US led armed intervention,massive cyberattacks last week by Iran (?) in retaliation - effective in US and Europe... oil pricesspike, stock markets crash - meanwhile all 3 nations incl Greece who left Euro 2015-208 are doingwell now... and China plus India both back into strong growth 4. EMOTION 5. 24 6. 7. $1.4 trillion 8. Free mobile / home devicescalls / web / video / games2012 2017 2022 Telco-Bank 9. 1 billion children cities 10. EuropeDying4 couples neededto produce just onegreat-grandchildDespite moreincentives forparents 11. 1 million voters over 90 years in Italy by 2026 12. 37CHINA loss of >60mmanual workers this year 13. 65% of all over 50s will be in Asia by 2050 14. Slow or no ageing is a reality Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales No signs of getting old 15. Oil prices accelerated innovationClimate sceptics went green 16. 60 to 400 yearsgas reserves in15 years 17. Solar cell payback time falls from 12 to 7 years without subsidy from 2012 - 2021 18. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day7,000 times total power useSolartec 20kms x 200kms of desert will power 40% of EU by 2028 19. Supergrid will link N and S America by 2026 20. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day7,000 times total global power usePower Moscow from Libyan Desert40% EU power from wind by 2050 21. 30 million acres lostEU 5% gasoline and diesel from food25% of 2010 US grain fuel... but 40% US grain still burnt in cars 22. Future of Cars and Travel 23. Remember 10 years ago!Remember 15years ago! 24. Cars still cars shaped becausepeople are still people 25. Driverless Cars - safe ? 26. Who owns the data ?Who owns the customer ? 27. Failure to agree common standards Smaller independent garages priced out 28. Huge growth homeservicing with augmentedreality technosupport 29. EuropeDyingWith over 65% of Euro market inAuto Parts -TrustAmazon 30. Build a Better WorldFor individual For family For community For whole earth 31. Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of 15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most inuential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50)Year 2022 - The Future of Auto Industry Looking to 2027 - Keynote for TRW Auto Industry(2012)500 videos of keynoteswww.youtube.com/pjvdixonover 4 million viewswww.globalchange.com14 million unique visitors