year ended 31 march 2011 - z energy · after tax excluded items 13.7 36.6 (22.9) (62.7%) reported...
TRANSCRIPT
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YEAR ENDED 31 MARCH 2011 RESULTS PRESENTATION 17 MAY 2011
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INFRATIL GROUP – 2010/11 OVERVIEW
Strong value creation with fundamentally less risk
• Significant growth in operating earnings
and cash flows with strong momentum
leading into FY12 and FY13
• $475 million of capital deployed in new
investments or high-return capex and
greenfield projects
• Net revaluation gains pre-tax of
$96 million
• Substantial refinancing of bonds and
bank facilities
• Final dividend of 4.25 cps, up 13% on
prior year final
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INFRATIL GROUP – FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Growth in operating earnings and capital valuations
Full Year Ended 31 March ($Millions) 2011 2010 Variance % Change
EBITDAF (excl. fair value gains on acquisition) $459.6 $363.3 96.3 26.5%
Operating Earnings $173.1 $90.0 $83.1 92.3%
Net Parent Surplus $64.5 $29.0 $35.5 122.4%
Net Comprehensive Income (parent) $118.2 $29.2 $89.0 304.8%
Net Operating Cashflow $178.5 $131.8 $46.7 35.4%
Capital Expenditure/Investment $475.3 $193.0 $282.3 146.3%
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INFRATIL GROUP – 2010/11 REPORTED EARNINGS
26% EBIDTAF growth leading to 122% NPAT growth
Full Year Ended 31 March ($Millions) 2011 2010
Operating Revenue $2,028.2 $1,835.9
EBITDAF (excl. fair value gains on acquisition) $459.6 $363.3
Net Interest ($168.1) ($159.3)
Depreciation & Amortisation ($118.4) ($114.0)
Operating Earnings $173.1 $90.0
Fair value gains on acquisition of equity interest $60.7 -
Net (loss) on revaluation of financial derivatives ($3.9) ($67.5)
Net investment realisations/(impairments) ($34.9) $83.8
Tax (1) ($75.4) ($11.3)
Net Group Surplus $119.6 $95.0
Minority interests ($55.1) ($66.0)
Net Parent Surplus $64.5 $29.0 (1) includes $35m of non-cash tax charges related to removal of tax depreciation on long life buildings
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INFRATIL GROUP – 2010/11 REPORTED EARNINGS and CASHFLOW
Final result has delivered against our commitments
• EBITDAF (excl. fair value gains on acquisition)
- $96.3 million increase to $459.6 million (+26.5% pcp)
- Reflects revenue growth of 10% from plant investment, higher
overall customer numbers, and improving margins
- Encouraging performance improvement from Infratil Energy
Australia, NZ Bus and Wellington Airport
- $55.1 million from equity accounting Z Energy, which reported a
stand-alone CCS EBITDAF of $166.8 million (including $9.8m of
NZRC associate) and $228.3 million HCA EBITDAF
• Operating Earnings
- 92.3% increase to $173.1 million (pcp $90.0 million). Improved
operating leverage demonstrated through stable net interest
costs, and depreciation & amortisation
- Net Earnings
- Group earnings up 26% to $119.6 million, and parent entity
earnings up 122% to $64.5 million
• Operating Cash Flow - $178.5 million for the year (+35% pcp) reflecting the improved
margins and working capital management
2nd HALF DIVIDEND*
- Final dividend of 4.25
cps fully imputed payable on 17 June to shareholders recorded as owners by the registry as at 3 June (last year 3.75 cps)
* The DRP will continue to operate for this dividend. The price of the DRP shares will be the weighted average price recorded on the NZX over 7th – 13th June inclusive. Shares will be issued 17th June
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INFRATIL GROUP – EBITDA BREAKDOWN
Biggest gains from Lumo and Z Energy
• TrustPower – credible performance given
subdued wholesale electricity prices and
above average South Island storage
• IEA – strong winter sales and absence of
gas overhang. Top line revenue growth
+28%
• Wellington Airport – satisfactory growth
in international pax (+4.5%), offset by
small decrease in domestic
• NZ Bus – EBITDAF improvement +38%,
reflecting management initiatives,
passenger growth, cost reduction and
avoidance of 2009 industrial disruption
• Z Energy – excellent first year
performance with higher market share,
volumes and earnings
• IAE – continued focus on costs given
pressure on operating revenues
FY 31 March ($Millions) 2011 2010
TrustPower
$274.4
$273.9
Infratil Energy Australia $55.0 $11.0
Wellington Airport $72.3 $68.3
Infratil Airports Europe ($11.3) ($8.6)
NZ Bus $40.1 $29.1
Other, eliminations, etc. ($26.0) ($10.4)
EBITDAF pre assoc $404.5 $363.3
Associates – Z Energy $55.1 -
Total EBITDAF $459.6 $363.3
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INFRATIL GROUP – NORMALISED EARNINGS
Adjusted earnings provide a clear view of performance
($Millions) 2011 2010 Variance % Change
EBITDAF as reported 459.6 363.3 96.3 26.5%
Z Energy equity earnings normalisation adjustment to CCS and tax
(16.4) - (16.4) -
Normalised EBITDAF 443.2 363.3 79.9 22.0%
Depreciation & Amortisation (118.4) (114.0) (4.4) 3.9%
Normalised EBIT 324.8 249.3 75.5 30.3%
Interest (168.1) (159.3) (8.8) 5.5%
Normalised Earnings Before Tax 156.7 90.0 66.7 74.1%
Normalised Taxation Expense (50.8) (31.6) (19.2) 60.7%
Normalised Net Earnings (pre Minority Interests)
105.9 58.4 47.5 81.4%
After Tax Excluded Items 13.7 36.6 (22.9) (62.7%)
Reported Earning After Tax (pre Minority Interests)
119.6 95.0 24.6 25.9%
Excluded items (net of tax) are FV gains and CCS adjustments in Z Energy, MtM movements on derivatives,
investment impairments and realisations and changes in tax rates due to legislation. Refer Appendix A.
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INFRATIL GROUP – CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
2010/11 investment activity will drive future growth
FY 31 March ($Millions) 2011 2010
TrustPower
$109
$29
Infratil Energy Australia $116 $116
Wellington Airport $15 $23
Infratil Airports Europe $7 $5
Public Transport $18 $20
Total Capex $265 $193
Z Energy Investment $210 -
Total Capex & Investment $475 $193
• TrustPower commissioned first
stage Mahinerangi wind farm and
first stage Highbank irrigation
project
• Infratil Energy Australia
completed generation plants in
Perth and South Australia and
acquisition of generation
development site in NSW
• Wellington Airport completed
“The Rock” international terminal
• Public Transport reflects
investment in new buses and
ticketing systems
• Z Energy investment is the cost of
acquiring the initial 50%
shareholding in the Shell NZ
downstream oil business
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INFRATIL GROUP – CAPITAL STRUCTURE
Active capital management and good execution
• Gearing 39% (dated debt / total debt + equity capitalisation)
• $139 million increase in net bank debt to $80.6 million, following investment in Z Energy
• Bank capacity retained with $692 million of total facilities and $344 million of head room at March 31, 2011
• Total group debt (including PIIBs) of $1.1 billion resulting in Infratil interest of $87 million
Comfortable gearing and strong support from senior
lenders
• Infratil $100 million 5 years (including $26 million roll-overs of 2011 maturities) and $66 million 6 years (including $16 million of 2011 rollovers) at 8.5%
• 15 May 2011 $69.7 million bond maturity repaid
• Z Energy $147 million 6 years at 7.35% and TrustPower $75 million at 7.1%. Z Energy likely to access bond market to achieve further duration
Active in bond market activity across the group
• Infratil $40 million export credit facility for bus acquisitions (executed April 2011)
• TrustPower $50 million export credit facility for wind farm developments completed
New sources of capital introduced
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INFRATIL WHOLLY-OWNED GROUP - FACILITIES AND MATURITY PROFILE
Access to committed capital and financial flexibility
• Total Infratil and wholly owned subsidiaries(1) borrowing facilities of $692 million (net
cash drawn $220.6 million 31 March 2011 including RPS)
- Senior borrowing facilities increased $57 million during the period and a further $40 million since
year end
• Maturity profile extended with new bond issues and additional term on bank debt
(1) Infratil and wholly-owned subs excludes TrustPower, WIAL, Perth Energy and Greenstone
(1) Infratil and wholly-owned subs excludes TrustPower, WIAL, Perth Energy and Z Energy
• Infratil will continue to target debt maturities consistent with ownership of long-term
assets
FY 31 March ($Millions) 2012 2013 2014 2015 >4 years >10 years
Bonds $99 $57 $85 - $381 $238
Infratil Bank Facilities $175 $61 $199 - $32 -
100% Sub. Bank Facilities $85 - $140 - - -
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INFRATIL GROUP - NET ASSET VALUATIONS
Real NTA growth not effectively captured by IFRS
• Market or book value of assets
- $210 million invested in Z Energy (50%
interest) + share of net income. Fair
value gain on acquisition of $60.7 million
(business valuation and multiple growth
not recognised)
- increase in value of IEA due to
revaluations, completion of Kwinana and
Port Stanvac and cash earnings (NSW
privatisation suggests implicit value of
dual-fuel customers are higher)
- TrustPower value change reflects NZX
market price (i.e. passive portfolio per
share valuation)
- NZ Bus comparable acquisition multiples
suggest value uplift
- write down in the value of European
assets of $35 million
Assets: FY 31 March ($Millions) 2011 2010
TrustPower
$1,146
$1,153
Infratil Energy Australia $375 $206
Wellington Airport $297 $289
Z Energy $312 -
Infratil Airports Europe $101 $138
NZ Bus $208 $214
Other $56 $55
Total $2,495 $2,055
Other value changes reflect earnings, investment,
depreciation, and revaluations. Values exclude deferred tax
and 100% subsidiaries’ cash balances
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NZ ENERGY – TRUSTPOWER
Core strength with growing options
• Earnings consistent with prior year - reduced sales volumes due to lower customers and a
mild winter, offset by increased time of use sales
volumes
• Capital investment in 2011 & beyond
- First stage of 36MW Mahinerangi Wind Farm
completed ahead of schedule and under budget
- First stage of irrigation development strategy using
Highbank hydro generation scheme for approximately
8,000ha of land. Significant future irrigation options
(principally Canterbury/Coleridge)
- Planning consent for additional 250MW of capacity at
Snowtown Wind Farm in Australia
- Secured consents for approximately 400MW of wind
farm and 120MW of hydro developments in the South
Island during the year
• Capital raising
- Raised $75 million of seven year bonds from retail
investors
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NZ FUEL DISTRIBUTION & MARKETING – Z ENERGY
Performing ahead of original expectations
• Continued to operate safely and reliably, while being
tested regularly, e.g. earthquakes, NZRC outages
• Stand alone functions established for Treasury, IT,
Procurement, Strategy
• ~70 transition projects completed by the end of
January with run rate cost savings of $12.7 million
• Risks in IT systems mitigated through combination of
investment, process improvement and capability
• Strategy project completed by December and
implementation plans developed for FY2012
• Extensive research project informed decisions around
both Brand and new customer offers
• Employee morale and motivation remains strong
throughout all of these changes
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NZ FUEL DISTRIBUTION & MARKETING – Z ENERGY
A closer look at the first year earnings …
• 2H sales volumes higher than 1H,
with the full year +5.8% on 2009
• Integrated (refining and marketing)
gross margins are constant
between periods at ~14.7cpl
• 2H marketing gross margins lower
by 2.4cpl compared to 1H due to
rapidly rising prices causing price
lag and pricing decisions taken in
response to the earthquake
• The impact of the earthquakes
were $5.9m over insurance cover,
of which $3.0m was a result of
decisions to support our people
and the wider community.
• Realised Transition savings of
$6.4m at a run rate of $12.7m
($Millions)
FY
March
2011
Year to
Dec
2009
Sales Volume (ml) 2,654 2,508
Gross Margin 394 368
Operating Costs (237) (230)
Operating EBITDAF 157 138
Associate Income 10 3
EBITDAF (CC) 167 141
CCS Adjustment 62 38
EBITDAF (HC) 229 179
External Interest (30) 4
Depreciation (27) (22)
Derivatives/Revaluations 112 -
Tax (52) (38)
NPAT 232 123
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96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11
Z Energy Industry (excl. Z)
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11
Z Energy Industry (excl. Z)
NZ FUEL DISTRIBUTION & MARKETING – Z ENERGY
Z Energy’s competitive position has improved
Retail
• Site average volume grew to 5.8mlpa
against an industry average of ~3mlpa
• Fly Buys penetration has grown by 1.5%
• Store sales up 1% with in store gross
margins flat year on year at 22%
Commercial
• New accounts secured in diesel markets
• No significant accounts lost in any sector
and key accounts re-contracted
Supply and Distribution
• Greater commercial thinking is improving
sourcing costs
• Capital recovery charge piloted at Timaru
Petrol Volumes – all channels
Diesel Volumes – all channels
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NZ FUEL DISTRIBUTION & MARKETING – Z ENERGY
Z Energy is much more than a rebrand from Shell
• There was a considered decision in November to
change from Shell based on extensive research
• Post that decision, further consumer testing of
potential brands and retail offers
• Company name changed to Z Energy Limited and
other corporate rebranding complete by end June
• Supported by full marketing campaign
• 10 Retail pilots operating between June and
October
• Reimaging project team assembled and final
rollout plans being developed
• Expected completion between March to June
2012
• Staff and customer response has been very
positive
• See the brand story on www.z.co.nz
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NZ FUEL DISTRIBUTION & MARKETING – Z ENERGY
Strategy projects underpin growth in earnings
• Manufacturing is
optimised for each
product grade
• Grow scale in both
supply & manufacturing
• Process improvement in
managing inventory
• Work with NZRC to
explore growth options
• Renegotiate relevant
industry agreements
• Capital recovery
charge for terminals
• Invest in tankage to
balance Z Energy
system and create
growth options
• Process improvement
in Distribution
• Returns focused and
not volume driven
• Upgrade store format
and retail experience
• Invest in new and
rebuilt retail sites
• Commercial portfolio
restructuring with
integrated margin
management
Supply and Manufacturing Terminals and Distribution Sales and Marketing
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NZ FUEL DISTRIBUTION & MARKETING – Z ENERGY
Guidance for FY2012
FY March 2012 FY March 2011
Gross refinery margin (USD/bbl) $7.50 $7.53
NZRC Processing Volume (ml) 2,076 1,901
Sales Volume (ml) 2,695 2,654
Operating Costs $250-265m $237m
Capex $80-95m $29m
Operating EBITDAF (CC) $170-190m $157m
• Gross refinery margin consistent with NZRC guidance but includes additional margin for upside captured from sourcing activities outside of the processing agreement
• Processing volumes assumes no planned or unplanned shutdowns in FY2012
• Opex increases related to marketing campaign associated with Brand rollout, run rate on headcount associated with new functions, and strategy projects
• Capex covers majority of costs (75%) associated with rebranding and upgrading of stores to new Z format with the balance in FY2013
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AUSTRALIAN ENERGY – LUMO and PERTH ENERGY
IEA/LUMO delivering on potential
• EBITDAF A$42.7 million (+A$33.9 million over pcp)
• Revenue growth +28% over pcp from growing customer base and new
generation plant
• Mass market retail customers net decline of -1% (yoy) to 409,730 billable
accounts at 31 March 2011 - net growth in SA, QLD and NSW. Slight decline in VIC
- VIC annualised churn now approaching 28% as lower wholesale costs encourage competitive
activity
• Retail EBITDAF improved strongly - improved electricity and gas margins (cumulative effect of higher electricity margins, higher gas
consumption and non-recurrence of high gas wholesale supply costs)
- improved credit performance versus last year
• Port Stanvac A$55 million, 65MW diesel peaker completed in South Australia
• Generation development site acquired at Bamarang, NSW, for A$9 million
• Perth Energy A$120 million, 120MW dual-fuel power station at Kwinana
completed on schedule and within budget
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AUSTRALIAN ENERGY - LUMO and PERTH ENERGY
IEA should build significantly from 2012/13
• Australian energy market is a sector still
emerging from government ownership and
monopoly provision
• No straight line growth, but expect rewards for
growing into a maturing market
• Lumo and IEA are building customer
incumbency and generation capacity
• 2012 outlook A$37-A$40 million - 2012 EBITDAF – flat to slight decline possible given final
year of gas oversupply, offset in part by electricity retail
growth and generation revenue
- 2013 – strong EBITDAF improvement following increase
in electricity demand consistent with customer growth,
generation expansion and balanced gas supply position
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NZ AIRPORTS – WELLINGTON AIRPORT
Good growth in operating earnings despite challenges
• Earnings EBITDAF +6% to $72 million
- Infratil cash income up 15% to $27 million
- Contribution from passenger services +12% to
$29 million
• Completion of new international terminal
“The Rock”
- Concluding a 5 year $145 million capex
programme
• Flat aviation market
- Departure of Pacific Blue from domestic services
- Weak economy and Christchurch earthquakes
- Strong performance on the Tasman and regional
services
• Future activity
- Airline schedules indicate that FY12 growth will
be back on long-term trend rates
- Car park & domestic terminal expansion
• Regulation/Pricing consultation
- Court review of Commerce Commission
information disclosure requirements
- Five-yearly consultation to set 1 April 2012
aeronautical prices
22
NZ PUBLIC TRANSPORT – NZ BUS and SNAPPER
PAX growth and system improvements show promise
• Encouraging earnings improvement - Reflecting strong patronage growth in Auckland
(+7.4%) and Wellington (+1.3%) year on year
- Fare increases in Auckland in Feb 2010 and both
Auckland and Wellington in Oct 2010
- Reduced overhead and lower corporate costs
• Major refurbishment of bus fleet
- Investment in new bus fleet and entry into significant
bus procurement contract with ADL UK (local
assembly by Tauranga-based Kiwi Bus Builders)
• Improving contracting environment
- Positive progress on new Public Transport Operating
Model (“PTOM”) with central and regional authorities
• Snapper growth and rollout to Auckland
- worked with Auckland Transport on introduction of
the “Hop Card” in May 2011
- Over 160,000 Snapper card sales and over
40 million transactions
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INFRATIL GROUP - OUTLOOK
2012 Outlook: EBITDAF momentum should continue
FY 31 March ($Millions) FY 2011
FY 2012 Outlook
EBITDAF - normalised $443 $460 - $490
Net Interest ($168) ($180 - $190)
Operating Cash Flow $179 $150 - $170
• 2012 EBITDAF range $460-$490 million - major assumptions:
- Incremental gains for TrustPower, Wellington Airport, NZ Bus & Z Energy
- Slight reduction in contribution from Infratil Energy Australia due to lower gas contribution,
expectation of warmer winter, partially offset by full year Kwinana and Port Stanvac
• Improvements and benefits from previous capital investment
- Kwinana, Port Stanvac and Mahinerangi power stations full year contribution
- continued customer growth in IEA
- Z Energy: benefits expected from re-brand, new retail offers and further volume growth
• Operating cash flow reflects EBITDAF, slightly higher interest rate environment, tax
and anticipated growth in working capital
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INFRATIL GROUP - OUTLOOK
2012 Capex outlook: a lighter programme
FY 31 March ($Millions) 2011 2012
TrustPower
$109
$60-$75
Australian Energy $116 $25-$35
Wellington Airport
$15 $25-$35
European Airports
$7 $8-$12
Public Transport $18 $55-$65
Z Energy investment(1) $210 -
Total $475 $170 -$220
(1) Z Energy amount excludes its own direct capital expenditure
• TrustPower – maintenance capex,
completion of Highbank pumping, 9MW
diesel generation facility near Marsden
Point, generation enhancement projects
and customer care and billing systems
• Infratil Energy Australia – organic
customer growth and ongoing system
enhancements
• Wellington Airport – carpark
expansion, new private aircraft hangar,
and further apron developments
• Public Transport – NZ Bus fleet
upgrade to meet future growth and
regulatory requirements and Snapper
growth
• Z Energy – internal (non-consolidated)
capex shown separately as an associate
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INFRATIL GROUP – SUMMARY
Strong earnings growth set to continue
• Capital investment programme and recent portfolio decisions have built a strong
platform for growth in free cash flow and earnings
- future periods will benefit from significant recent greenfield investments in generation plant and
new facilities
- Z Energy earnings contribution likely to respond to aggressive investment programme
- Australian energy businesses set to benefit from improved capability and a balanced gas portfolio
- favourable sector trends and exposure to rising energy prices, air travel, and urban mobility
• Operating leverage and optionality a feature of our core businesses
- Z Energy only one year into a multi-year restructuring of the New Zealand fuels industry
- TrustPower development pipeline in Australia and New Zealand
- continuing changes and consolidation of the Australian energy market creating opportunities for
committed integrated players
• Infratil’s expertise and access to capital will continue to draw opportunities
- organisational capability to address attractive opportunities (including a track record of high quality
project management and delivery)
- the Z Energy investment illustrates the value that can be created from having access to expertise
and capital
- constraints on government spending will mean increased private provision of infrastructure
- other sectors and investment ideas continue to be actively monitored
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INFRATIL GROUP RESULT - APPENDIX
Appendix A: Underlying Earnings Adjustments
Excluded items of Income/Expenditure ($Millions) 2011 2010 Variance % Change
FV gain on Z Energy 60.7 - 60.7 -
Z Energy equity earnings normalisation adjustment to CCS
16.4 - 16.4 -
MtM energy, IRS and FX derivatives (3.9) (67.5) 63.6 (94.2%)
Impairments/realisations (34.9) 83.8 (118.7) (141.6%)
Excluded items – pre-tax 38.3 16.3 22.0 134.9%
Tax effect of excluded items 1.2 20.3 (19.1) (94.2%)
Effect of change in corporate tax rate and removal of depreciation on buildings
(25.8) - (25.8) -
Post tax excluded items 13.7 36.6 22.9 62.6%
Tax expense as reported 75.4 11.3 64.1 567.3%
Tax effect on MtM of derivatives 1.2 20.3 (19.1) (94.2%)
Effect of change in corporate tax rate and removal of depreciation on buildings
(25.8) - (25.8) -
Tax Expense – normalised 50.8 31.6 19.2 60.9%
Normalised effective tax rate 32.4% 35.1% (2.7%) 135.0%
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INFRATIL GROUP RESULT - APPENDIX
Appendix B: Z Energy underlying earnings
($Millions)
Reported IFRS CCS Adj
CCS EBITDAF
Tax Adj
Underlying Result
Operating EBITDAF HCA 218.5 (61.5) 157.0 - 157.0
NZRC equity earnings 9.8 - 9.8 - 9.8
Operating EBITDAF HCA 228.3 (61.5) 166.8 - 166.8 Depreciation & amortisation (26.9) - (26.9) - (26.9) EBIT 201.4 (61.5) 139.9 - 139.9 Interest – external (30.3) - (30.3) - (30.3) Interest – shareholders (28.2) - (28.2) - (28.2) Earnings before tax & FV 142.9 (61.5) 81.4 - 81.4 FV gain 121.4 - - - -
Derivative revaluations (9.0) - (9.0) - (9.0)
Earnings before tax 255.3 (61.5) 72.4 - 72.4 Taxation (51.9) 18.5 (33.4) 10.2 (23.2) Earnings after tax 203.4 (43.0) 39.0 10.2 49.2 Infratil share earnings 101.7 24.6 Shareholder interest 14.1 14.1 Total Infratil contribution 115.8 38.7 Equity earnings 55.1 38.7 FV Gain 60.7