you may not be interested in climate change, but climate change is interested in you
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Climate Revelations 12 Simple & Important Things to Know About Climate Change Dan Miller Managing Director The Roda Group ClimatePlace.org. You may not be interested in climate change, but climate change is interested in you. Revelation #1. Tom Friedman. Climate change is your issue. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
ClimateRevelations
12 Simple & Important Things to Know About
Climate Change
Dan MillerManaging Director
The Roda Group
ClimatePlace.org
You may not be interested in climate change,but climate change is interested in you.
Revelation #1
Tom Friedman
Climate change is your issue
“On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon
the Temperature of the Ground”
By Prof. Svante Arrhenius
April 1896
97% of climate scientists and every major scientific academy agreethat global warming is real,
is mostly cause by humans,and requires urgent action
Everything You Need toKnow About CO2 Emissions
• The peak warming is proportional to the cumulative carbon emitted
• It doesn’t matter much how rapidly the carbon is emitted
• The warming you get when you stop emitting carbon is what you are stuck with for the next thousand years
• The climate recovers only slightly over the next ten thousand years
• A trillion tons cumulative carbon gives you about +2ºC global mean warming above the pre-industrial temperature.
A Trillion Tons• We have emitted about
500 GtC so far
• About 500 GtC to go to have a chance to stay below +2°C...
• BUT permafrost melt may itself add ~250 GtC by end of the century
Extreme Drought
Drought Index: -3 to -6 = Dust BowlSource: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
MIT Temperature Study2009 MIT Study:95% chance that“Business-as-usual”temperature increase will exceed 3.5ºC (6.3ºF) in 2095
• “Incompatible with an organized global community
• Likely to be beyond ‘adaption’
• Devastating to the majority of ecosystems
• High probability of not being stable– i.e., temperatures will keep going higher on their own
• Must be avoided at all costs.”
What Does +4°C (+7°F) Mean?
From Prof. Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Energy Centre, UK
Other Dangers:All Already Happening
• Reduction of ocean’s ability to absorb CO2 & acidification
• Collapse of forests / increased wild fires
• Spread of deserts• Mega-droughts and floods• Mass extinctions • More extreme weather • Reduction in global food
production
Future Impacts
• Wars over resources
• Abandonment of many major cities
• Massive shortages of food and water
• Collapse of economies
Failure of the “Risk Thermostat”We respond strongest
to threats that are: Climate Change is:
Visible Invisible
With historical precedentUnprecedented
Immediate Drawn out
With simple causality With complex causality
Caused by another “tribe” (enemy)Caused by all of us
Have direct personal impactsUnpredictable & indirect impacts
George Marshall, Climate Outreach Information Network
Denial Strategies Displaced commitment “I protect the environment in other ways”
Condemn the accuser “You have no right to challenge me”
Denial of responsibility “I am not the main cause of this problem”
Rejection of blame “I have done nothing wrong”
Ignorance “I didn’t know”
Powerlessness “I can’t make any difference”
Fabricated constraints “There are too many impediments”
After the flood “Society is corrupt”
Comfort “It’s too hard for me to change my behavior”
S. Stoll-Kleemann, et al, Global Environmental Change 11 (2001) 107}117
Other Denial Strategies
• We think of it as an environmental issue
• We deliberately maintain a level of ignorance
• We wait for someone else to act first - the “passive bystander effect”
• Societies develop strategies to avoid action– We place it outside our “norms of attention”
– Define it as “far away” - global - not local; future - not now
To the surprise of almost everyone, it turns out that you cannot decrease
fossil fuel emissions by increasing them!
Revelation #8
What Can YOU Do?
1. Believe, learn, engage
2. Reduce your carbon footprint
3. Talk to your family, friends & colleagues and get them engaged.
4. Talk to your elected leaders and demand policy changes
5. Commit to taking specific actions and make a list
What Can Governments Do?
1. Move to 100% carbon-free electricity generation in 10~20 years (i.e., ban coal)
2. Keep tar-sands and oil shale in the ground
3. Expand research into “geo-engineering”
4. Put a price on carbon...
Clean Energy Credit• Put an increasing fee on CO2
– Enough to eventually increase gasoline by $1/gal
• Distribute 100% of the money collected to every legal resident on an equal basis
• Most people will earn more each year than they pay in higher energy costs!
• Put a Border Duty on products coming from other countries that don’t have a carbon fee
What Else Can Governments Do?
• Stop subsidizing fossil fuels
• Provide low-cost financing for clean energy
• Increase R&D spending on cleantech
• Plan for climate impacts
We must manage the unavoidableand avoid the unmanageable
An Economic Boom
• Putting a price on CO2 will drive innovation and investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency
• Will trigger an economic boom that will put the Internet revolution to shame
• Will also improve energy security and eliminate the need to fight wars over oil
Jobs. Jobs. Jobs.• We’ll keep the $500B+ we
send to the Middle East in this country, creating millions of jobs.
• From 1998 to 2007, clean energy economy jobs grew 9.1% vs. 3.7% for traditional jobs (Pew Charitable Trusts research)
• Cleantech is currently one of the few growing areas in the California economy
When it comes to action on climate change, we are going to go from impossible to inevitable
without stopping at probable
Revelation #12
But you need to make it happen soon!