young professionals uk competitiveness
TRANSCRIPT
CHRISTOPHER BIRD - MANAGING DIRECTOR
THE FUTURE COMPETITIVENESS OF THE UKCSUPSTREAM OIL AND GAS SECTOR
1st February 2017 - Park Inn Aberdeen
THE FUTURE COMPETITIVENESS OF THE UKCS
AGENDA
A brief history lesson
The supply and demand curve and key factors
The unit costs
Some factors affecting our competitiveness
So what do we need
Conclusions
Can we manage the future in a better way?
COU
LD WE PREDICT O
IL PRICEGlobal Risk Tracker January 2013
UKCS W
ORKS IF THERE IS LO
WER CO
RPORATE RISK
UK Competitiveness January 2014
HISTORY O
F OIL PRICE
Decreasing volatility is always going to cause a problem - August 2014
Oil price stability 30 yrs Growth7 yrs
Fall6 yrs
Some variation 16 yrs Growth11 yrs
WhatNext?
Dec 98$16
Jan 02$26
Feb 09$46
Jan 15$50
QuestionLonger term low price or just a blip as in 02/2009
Cost base
UKChallenge
HOW
OIL PRICE AFFECTS ECO
NO
MIES
So how does Oil price work
$75
$56
$35
$0
$100
Sub economic rangeFor investment
Non competitive for GDP and other energy sources
ConvenienceFee
Discount
Baseprice
Base price - $56/bbl• History of oil price• Other energy costs• Global economics
Consider• Market Dynamics• Global uncertainties• Industry risks
Undersupply
Low pricevolatility
Oversupply
IT WILL ALW
AYS BE CERTAIN THAT THIN
GS WILL CHAN
GEMarket Dynamics
Transportation
Energy Efficiency & Technologies
Petrochemical Market
Environmental Stability
Power Generation
WO
RLD DYNAM
ICS IS BECOM
ING M
ORE CO
MPLEX
Uncertinities affect our industry but we have no control
Geopolitics
Macroeconomic Situation
Supply and DemandFOREX Rates
Financial Markets
Environmental Impact
RISKS ARE SOM
ETHING THAT W
E CAN M
ANAGE
Risk factors that effect our competitiveness
Complexity
Loss of Scarce Resources
Low DeliverabilityHigh Unit Cost
Access to Finance
Environmental Management
WHY DID W
E END U
P HERE?So where was the UKCS at the end of 2015
$28 oil price
$28 oil price
Invest cost
Invest cost
Return on investment negative to a m
ax of 3%Investable basins
Needs unit costs to drop to sub $40 / boe
and Oil price to be above $55/boe for future investment
Production declineCost of assetsInefficienciesIncreased taxesOver specifiedToo competitive
IT IS MO
RE THAN JU
ST LIFTING O
R OPERATIN
G COSTS
So what is the gross cost for producing oil
Lifting Costs
Sustainable Capex
General and Administration
Capex Depreciation
Decommissioning
Amortisation
Special items
Operating Costs
TODAY
Gros
s Cos
ts
Cost Centre
Operating Costs = 30 to 60% of gross cost
Capital cotsTomorrow
BarrelsAsset performanceMaximising wellsNew developments
SHORT TERM
FOCU
S HAS BEEN THE N
ORM
Do we really focus on collaborative relationships
Booz | Allen | Hamilton report on capital projects
Key concern areas:• Risk Management• Performance
Management• Resources• Knowledge
Management
WE HAVE TO
MAN
AGE IN A VU
CA WO
RLDDeveloping the right people
Resources relocated to more competitive
destinations
Skill shortages and supply chain bottlenecks
Cost inflation and project management
problems
Further deterioration in
profitability
Lack of people development and a
vicious cycle for resources
EFFECTIVE RISK MAN
AGEMEN
T IS KEYSome of the risks to consider
Managing all the interfaces
Suppliers taking bullish approach to
signing contracts
Competitors fighting for the same
resources
Consistent and reliable information
Single point failures
HH
HH
HM
MH
HL
H/H13
H/M28
M/H18
H/L23
L/H4
M/M33
NEED PRO
FIT FOR FIN
ANCE, O
PERATOR AN
D SUPPLY CHAIN
Finance IRR on top of Oil comany investment IRR deck
Growth upside,
Risk sharing,Cost of capital
Increasing business model maturity and predictability of cashflows
Corporate Mezzanine:
Expected IRR: 15%+Brings in project
management skills (Subordinated notes,
high yield bonds, convertible shares)
EquityExpected IRR:
25%+Accessible without
collateral to pledge! Management rights
constrained (Private equity, IPO)
Senior debt:Expected IRR: 10%+
Reserve based lendingProject financeProject bonds
Comfort zone for O&G industry
Increasing leverage
So what does the UKCS need to be competitiveness and access finance and investment
Gross unit costs need to be competitive on Global oil and gas investment basis Against other energy sources for investment Meets the macro economic and geopolitical risks
Opportunity for growth Local market opportunities UKCS, North Sea, Europe International markets and exports Gaining knowledge, know-how and technologies for other markets
Predictability and consistency Bench marked performance of operating assets / new developments Bench marked performance of new developments Meet the schedule and cost promises Maintain the right levels of quality / minimise failures Managing environmental and sustainability challenges
Maintain the right culture Clear sense of purpose and embedded values Behaviours and attitudes that have integrity and accountability Collaboration and development of people /organisations
Government political and economic risk Effects of BREXIT and potential Scottish Referendum Cost of living and doing business in the UK Changes in tax and other key policies
5 KEY METRICS FO
R INVESTO
RS
THERE ARE STILL SOM
E MAJO
R CHALLENGES AHEAD
Need to plan on $54 / barrel longer term as a working oil price
Current operating costs $16/bbl
Target of gross DDA + SI $16/bbl
Operating profit companies $11/bbl
Government take - Tax $11/bbl (Pre 2104 this was $19/bbl)
$32
$54
$0
Unit Costs
Cost Centre
THE CHALLENGE W
ILL NO
W REM
AIN FO
R THE NEXT 40 YRS
Challenge is maintaining unit cost competitiveness with decline in production
JUVENILE ADULT OLD AGE
transition transition
18 years 35 years 40 years
competitive highly competitive collaborative
major change major change1985 2020
Discovery Performance/Growth Health/Costs
first production1972
WE N
EED A BETTER WAY O
F WO
RKING TO
GETHERMaximising competitiveness – using the dynamic framework
Creating knowledgeImproving
understanding
Developing Alignment
Effective application
ABIS EnergyBusiness model
THE OPPO
RTUN
ITY IS +£1.2 TRILLION
SALES UP TO
2050So what can you do to help the UKCS competitiveness
Minimise the wastage and non value costs Simplify the processes ad documentation Standardized what we do and remove preferential engineering Minimise the interfaces and wastage across them Be clear on the business objective and key drivers Do not hide information and knowledge Collaborate with the teams and different organisations
Speed up delivery Benchmark what is high performance for delivery Reduce all activities that delay the process unnecessarily Commit to closing out actions, obligations and commitments ahead of time Improve what you do to remove rework and misunderstandings Have accountability for the outcome
Maximise quality of every component Don’t live with second best or ensure everything is fit for purpose Use the carpenters rule – measure twice and cut once Feel responsibility for the quality of the services
Maintain and improve production as every barrel counts help minimise shutdown and production losses Maximise the performance of each well and the overall asset Accelerate sustainable capex and new projects to increase barrels
WE CAN
STILL OPERATE IN
TO 2050 AN
D BEYON
DSo focus on what is important
Focus on barrels across every asset Speed gives us the highest NPV as long as we get it right
Development engineering Delivery of products Effective execution and handover
Quality gives us the next highest NPV as cash-flow is king Minimise rework and interface problems Maximise asset integrity and HSE performance Availability of over 97% from day one
Manage cost so IRR creates an investable solution Remove all unnecessary costs Focus on unit costs – economic engine Focus on value and not just lowest cost
Create the right stories Positive stories of all the good things Challenge and improve our culture Commit to a collaborative approach
Need to maintain flexibility and agility in a VUCA world Knowledge, alignment, understanding, application
THERE IS SO M
UCH O
PPORTU
NITY AHEAD
Conclusions –it is there for the taking
THE UKCS oil and Gas industry will be here to 2050 and beyond 20+ billion barrels yet to produce Decommissioning activities and recycling Moving into other energy sectors Export potential
Operation costs are now down from over $30/bbl to less than $16/barrel stimulating investment
Independents and new companies coming into the North Sea IOC’s tending to shed assets to lower cost more nimble operators OGA with MER and collaboration requirements Need to keep on top of this as production continues to decline
Huge opportunities in decommissioning, re-sue and recycle New technologies and reserve engineering
Big challenge is capital development Many of the current BIG project complete by the end of 2019 Loss of a lot of highly experience staff Need to reduce capital costs and improve delivery
Need for a real transformation utilising the next generation Changing mind-set, attitude and behaviour There is definitely a will to make this happen